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Hedging the Bet with Gabe Sousa and Ben Julian is your go-to sports betting podcast, dropping every Friday to prep you for the weekend’s action. Each week, Gabe and Ben break down the top matchups across the world of sports—offering sharp analysis, expert picks, and all the insight you need to place your bets with confidence. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just looking for smart plays, Hedging the Bet is your winning edge!
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome in to this June 7 edition of the Hedging the Bet podcast. I'm your host, Sousa, and I am alone today. I made the trip out to East Lansing, and I really wanted to record because there's a lot of stuff going on in the sports world right now. And despite the adversity of me being alone in this room pushing 80 degrees, that's right, 80 degrees in this sports studio right now, of course, the students are not on campus, so the university is saving some money by shutting off the AC. But it's it's kinda brutal in here, and despite that adversity, we're gonna continue.
Gabe:Well, I was gonna record two episodes, but I think I'm only gonna do one because it is so hot in the studio. Let's start with some news going around the sports world right now, and the elephant in the room, of course, is captain Dylan Larkin requests a trade out of the Detroit Red Wings, his hometown team. Larkin grew up in Waterford, Michigan and attended the University of Michigan, and he was a Red Wings fan growing up. And he has formally requested a trade out of the organization. And this is the Bleacher Report quote.
Gabe:This is the first sentence they had in their article covering it, which I thought was a little disrespectful. But Larkin has been with the Red Wings for all eleven years of his NHL career and yet to find any major team success. And unfortunately, I think that is true. Unfortunately, Larkin has had a plus minus in the negatives for the majority of his career. I believe the third year of his career, he had a plus minus of minus 28, and it's time for for the captain to move on.
Gabe:I think it's best for both parties. Larkin has been the core piece, the foundation of this Red Wings team has struggled and missed the playoffs for ten consecutive years. He is going to be one of the most valuable, if not the most valuable free agent in the this off season for the NHL. I wanna talk about international play real quick, I think this is a big reason why Larkin thinks that he should move on, or it'd be smart for Larkin to move on is that I think international play has really helped Larkin's value. Him being surrounded by some of the best that the NHL and hockey has to offer has really helped Larkin increase his value.
Gabe:In the four nations face off, not last season, but the year before during the all star break, Larkin recorded two points in four games. It is important to note that he was coming off the fourth line for that, and he started to wake his work his way up towards the first line and even on the second shift on the power play. But he helped team USA get to a second place finish and last year during the Olympic games, helped team USA win gold when they were the large underdog against team Canada, and he had two goals and one assist in six games. Once again, he was coming off the fourth line. He was able to wake work his way up to that second shift on the power play.
Gabe:On the penalty kill starting on the penalty kill, and then also in regular five on five play, he worked his way up to the third and second shift towards the end of the Olympic tournament. So really quickly, I wanna touch on where I think Larkin could head. I think that I think honestly, the Canadians at the haves are a good fit for Larkin, but unfortunately, I just don't want to see him play for Canada because I hate Canada, so I will not go over that. The second team I have in mind is the Minnesota Wild, of course. I think that they have been on the brink, the the the edge of glory, if you will, for the past couple seasons.
Gabe:And I think that Larkin, if they are able to pick them up, especially making the Quinn Hughes acquisition halfway through the season, they are going to be a Stanley Cup contender should they pick up Larkin. I'm not saying that Joel Erickson Eck is not a talented center. It's just there's a drop off once you get past him in the depth chart. And I think picking up Larkin is just going to improve production in those top two lines, especially when you have a guy like Quinn Hughes. Larkin isn't even gonna be the number one guy on the team, of course, but Ryan Hartman spent this season as their number two center, and he's just not I just don't think he's moving the needle enough.
Gabe:And I think that the Wild need to make a move if they want to get the job done, especially when you go into the depth or sorry, deep into the off season and you're playing teams with better depth, you're just not gonna win a seven seven game series with with this center core. Craig Leipold is the owner of the Wild, and if he wants to get aggressive, which I think he will this offseason, and they want to acquire a missing piece that could help him get over that edge, then I think that Larkin is their guy, and it sucked to see him go to Minnesota, but I think that that is the best fit and it makes the most sense in my mind for Dylan Larkin to go. So I got a text from a buddy, Joe Caleb. Caleb, if you're listening, appreciate you. We talked about the Dylan Larkin situation real quick before I started recording today, and he brought up a good point that this doesn't mean that Larkin is 100% gone.
Gabe:Right? It's not like a trade has gone through. This is a, hey. Give me some help or I'm out of here. And I think that back to back years when Larkin plays an international play with people who are better around him and goods, you know, good supporting roster, and Larkin has excelled even on the fourth line that he's been a part of those teams.
Gabe:I think it's one of those things where you had to look at the Red Wings and how cheap and conservative, you know, Iserman is being. And at some point, it's like, hey. We need to make some moves. We need to spend some money or, you know, our guy, our captain, our you know, he's he's he's gonna give up at a certain point. And I think a decade of a lack of success is that breaking point.
Gabe:So I think that if the Red Wings do get help, Larkin, there's a chance they'll stay, but I would say odds are he probably won't just because he's either made up his mind that he's gonna go or he is requesting help and the Red Wings ownership is not gonna do it. The NBA finals continue tomorrow night. Of course, we have a two night gap because of the first two games in San Antonio have concluded. The Knicks take a two o lead and they'll have home court advantage for a chance to sweep the Spurs in the NBA finals. The Knicks sit currently at minus 500 to win the NBA finals.
Gabe:And a quick prop that I was looking at, a fun prop that I saw in the sports books for this upcoming game in New York is a player to record at least one in five different categories and that's points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals. The odds I'm currently looking at are for total between both teams is three players to do so is minus 500, four is at minus 165, but two New York Knicks to successfully record one in each stat is at minus one eighty five. Game one, the players that were able to do so were Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Kat, OG Anunobi, Victor Wimbanyama, of course, and Dylan Harper. Game two, Jalen Brunson, Kat, OG Anunobi, Victor Wimbinyama, and Devin Vassell. And I'm looking at this Knicks player, two Knicks players to record one of each of those five stats at minus one eighty five.
Gabe:Players who have done it in both games, the common denominator have been Jalen Brunson, Carl Anthony Towns, and OG Anunobi. You just need two of those three. I like that bet. Either two of the Knicks players to do so or four total between the two teams. There's been five in both games and three Knicks players in both games.
Gabe:Either way, the odds are in your favor. The eyes of the world are set on The United States this summer. Of course, the World Cup, North America was lucky enough to get the host this year. Well, I will say Canada and Mexico are lucky enough that United States has enough money to spend to make a bid to host it this year. The runaway favorites currently are Spain at plus four fifty and France at plus four seventy five.
Gabe:I think most would pick Spain to win right now just because of their talent of their starting 11. However, I think France has a deeper roster and something to consider is The United States is gonna be pretty warm this summer and already we've seen in some international friendlies that they've had to have hydration breaks. There could be I could easily see death being a big factor and substitutions having to happen due to overheating or tiredness, and I think France has the edge over Spain in that category. Something to look out for as we get deeper into this World Cup final. The US men's national team took on Germany in Soldier Field on Saturday.
Gabe:Of course, we'll touch on really quickly how the Chicago bears are moving to Hammond, Indiana. It looks like that that's a done deal. Although it's not official yet, it looks like it is gonna happen. I think that's very interesting. As a d one all American bears haters, I love to see them upset, but I think it doesn't make any sense, and I'm sick of the corporate greed and, you know, putting the money first as opposed to the fans.
Gabe:So I'm so I'm sorry, Chicago, but it's a brutal cold world out there. Moving back to this US game that took place in Soldier Field. US was number 16 in FIFA rankings. That's about halfway in the field for the World Cup, and Germany was number 10. Of course, Germany is a powerhouse with guys like Sane and Kimmich.
Gabe:It took only two minutes into this contest for Kai Havertz of Germany to head in across from Kimmich to get the one o lead over the US men's national team. And I will say, Kimmich, great player, but we gotta untuck the jersey, man. These times are new. This isn't, you know, the nineteen fifties NBA. We're not tucking in our jersey still, but regardless, he's a world class player, and he had a great cross to give his team the lead early.
Gabe:And then to end the first half, The US team really looked like they were dominant and then really were playing well. No careless turnovers that we saw in the first about twenty five minutes of the game really until the first hydration break where The US making the mistakes. And Anthony Robinson played really, really well on defensive end, but even got a goal on the off offensive side of things. It was a off of a cleared corner off the volley, and the Germany goalkeeper had no chance saving it. And Robinson even hit a cartwheel into a backflip to tie the game going into halftime.
Gabe:And then coming out of half, just like the first half, the US men's national team can see it early. Sane scored a ball that was entered into the box. There were three or four unmarked German. Sane happened to be one of those guys. And, really, the well, the ball was deflected against a US defender.
Gabe:And regardless of that fact, I think it would have been a well placed shot into the bottom left hand corner. But my take my takeaway was that The US looked good. They dominated the first half, really, even though it was a tied game. They dominated possession, and they had the advantage earning five to one corners going into the halftime break. I after the US conceded the second goal, they subbed out their starters, obviously, resting them, load management, whatever for the actual tournament.
Gabe:US will play Paraguay. It's the starting of the group stage Friday night at 9PM in SoFi Stadium. Should be a fun one. A little parlay I've cooked up for that is I have USA to win against Paraguay at minus one zero five. And then the base over under is set at two and a half goals.
Gabe:I took an outline of over one and a half goals. I think that being more conservative here. Paraguay is a great defensive team, and the contest between The United States and Paraguay in the Gold Cup in past years have been typically low scoring, but I believe that this is one of the best men's national teams that The US has to offer in really the past thirty years, forty years since I've been alive, certainly. And I think that there's going to be two goals scored. No issue.
Gabe:If you parlay those two together, it's plus one sixty six for the total on that. And that is my two leg parlay for the week. I appreciate you guys listening. I know it's been a little while since I've recorded an episode. I was busy with finals to end the year and I obviously went home for the summer and I love doing this so much that I decided to drive back.
Gabe:I'm only about ninety minutes out, but made the drive back to the studio. I always have fun recording. The last thing I'll say is enjoy this time of year because once the NBA and NHL are done we're gonna be stuck with the MLB and I love baseball as much as the next guy but it does kind of suck only having really one sport to look forward to especially when they play a 162 games and the games aren't as meaningful. But with that being said, go green, stay sharp, and keep hedging your bets.