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Your daily dose of Premier League insights - powered by data, driven by AI. From top transfer tips to captain picks, we break it all down in under 10 minutes.
Here's what you need to know in the next seven minutes to nail your Gameweek thirty-three transfers before that Saturday ten AM deadline. Let's go.
Right, the news first. And the biggest story doing the rounds right now — Salah has been benched again. If you still have him in your squad, this is becoming a serious headache. Arne Slot's rotation policy is costing FPL managers big points and you need to have a plan. Meanwhile, Ekitike has picked up what's being described as a serious injury — if you own him, get him out fast. Don't wait on that one. Also worth flagging — O'Reilly is listed as doubtful with a muscle injury ahead of Gameweek thirty-three, rated at seventy-five percent chance of playing. Man City host Arsenal on Sunday and then face Burnley on Wednesday, so it's a double gameweek for City. Keep an eye on team news before the deadline. And speaking of double gameweeks — Gameweek thirty-three is a big one. Multiple teams play twice, including Man City, Bournemouth, Brighton, Burnley, Chelsea, and Leeds. Free Hit managers are going to be circling. Plan accordingly.
Now let's get into the transfers. Who do you need to be bringing in right now?
First up — O'Reilly from Man City. Five point zero million pounds, thirteen point one percent ownership, and picking up one hundred and twenty thousand transfers in this gameweek. He scored a goal and kept a clean sheet in Gameweek thirty-two, bagging fourteen points. His expected points for Gameweek thirty-three sit at a massive twenty-one point four — that's the highest of any player in our data today. He's got twelve clean sheets this season, five goals, and three assists from defence. The only concern is that doubtful tag, so watch the injury updates closely. But if he's fit, this is essential. Verdict — essential, but monitor that muscle injury.
Second transfer in — Welbeck from Brighton. Six point three million pounds, eight point six percent ownership, pulling in eighty-five thousand transfers in this gameweek. Brighton beat Burnley two-nil in Gameweek thirty-two and Welbeck played seventy-four minutes. He's got twelve goals this season and his expected points for Gameweek thirty-three are thirteen point five. Now here's the key — Brighton face Spurs on Saturday and then Chelsea on Tuesday. That's a double gameweek for Fabian Hurzeler's side and Welbeck is the focal point of their attack. His price has dipped slightly but the fixtures are too good to ignore. Verdict — good buy, especially for double gameweek coverage.
Third in — Mateus Nunes, listed here as Matheus N., Man City defender at five point three million pounds, three point one percent ownership, twenty thousand transfers in this week. He's got ten clean sheets this season and seven assists from the back — that's elite output for that price. He kept a clean sheet against Chelsea in Gameweek thirty-two and has a double gameweek ahead. His expected points for Gameweek thirty-three are twelve point five. Under the radar, affordable, and part of a Man City defence facing Arsenal and Burnley. Verdict — good pick for the double.
Now, who are you selling?
First out — B.Fernandes from Man Utd. Ten point three million pounds, forty-four point seven percent ownership, and seeing fifty-seven thousand transfers out this week. He got just four points in Gameweek thirty-two despite playing the full ninety minutes against Leeds. Man Utd lost one-two and Michael Carrick's side have now lost back-to-back league games. For Gameweek thirty-three, they face Chelsea on Saturday before a double coming up, but with that form and price tag, there are far better options right now. His expected points are just eight point five. Verdict — sell if you can free up the funds for a double gameweek asset.
Second out — Ndiaye from Everton. Six point two million pounds, four point one percent ownership. Two points in Gameweek thirty-two playing the full ninety minutes in a goalless draw. His expected points for Gameweek thirty-three are just five point five, and Everton face Liverpool at Goodison in a tricky Merseyside derby. David Moyes's side have been inconsistent and Ndiaye hasn't contributed a goal or assist in this run. Verdict — sell. The money is better spent elsewhere.
Third out — this is a soft hold situation — Welbeck was recommended as a buy just now, but if you were sitting on B.Fernandes or Ndiaye, those are your priority exits. Don't hold onto expensive players with blank or single gameweeks when double gameweek assets are available at lower prices.
Now, the differentials. Under ten percent ownership, these are the punts that could separate you from your mini-league rivals.
Mateta from Crystal Palace. Seven point five million pounds, just six point eight percent ownership. He came off the bench in Gameweek thirty-two and bagged two goals plus three bonus points for twelve points total. Crystal Palace face West Ham on Monday in Gameweek thirty-three and his expected points are twelve point zero. Ten goals this season. If he starts, he's a nightmare to defend. A real differential weapon.
Second differential — Mavropanos from West Ham. Four point four million pounds, just zero point five percent ownership. This man scored two goals, kept a clean sheet, and grabbed three bonus points for twenty-one points in Gameweek thirty-two. Yes, twenty-one points from a four point four million pound defender. West Ham face Crystal Palace on Monday. His expected points are twelve point zero for Gameweek thirty-three. The fixtures get tougher after that but right now? For under thirty-five thousand transfers in, he's flying completely under the radar. Absolute differential gold.
Third differential — Bijol from Leeds. Three point nine million pounds, zero point nine percent ownership, twenty thousand transfers in this week. He's got an expected fifteen point five points for Gameweek thirty-three and Leeds have a double gameweek — facing Wolves on Saturday and then Bournemouth on Wednesday. At that budget price with double gameweek exposure, Bijol is the kind of ultra-differential that makes winners in mini-leagues.
Captaincy pick for Gameweek thirty-three — O'Reilly. If he's fit, Man City have Arsenal away and then Burnley at home in a double gameweek. His expected points of twenty-one point four lead the way and he's already shown he can bag attacking returns from defence. We recommended Cherki last gameweek but O'Reilly's double and those expected points make him the standout armband choice right now. If the injury concern worries you, the backup captain is Welbeck, who also has a double with Brighton.
Key tip — this is a double gameweek. Prioritise getting two fixtures over one. If you're choosing between two players of similar quality, always pick the one with a double. The deadline is Saturday the eighteenth of April at ten AM. Don't sleep on it.
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That's your Gameweek thirty-three briefing done. Subscribe at whogotthepoints.com and we'll see you tomorrow.