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Every morning, in the time it takes to drink a coffee, Teddy walks through yesterday's markets: US indices, the Nikkei, gold, oil and Malaysia. What moved, and which way the pressure leans. Market education, not financial advice.
This is my AI voice. The script comes from my market research system, and a person checks it before it goes out. It's education, not personal investment advice.
Good morning. Teddy here. It's Sunday, the eighth of November. This is the weekly recap and the week ahead.
Most people think a closed market means a quiet weekend. Not this one.
Stocks and gold have been shut since Saturday morning, Malaysia time. Only crypto has been trading. But the news did not stop.
On Friday, President Trump told reporters that Iranian representatives wanted a deal, and that mediated talks were moving forward. Then on Saturday, Iranian media reported explosions on Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz. Tasnim said two missiles struck the island. Iran said it shot down an American drone. US Central Command called the area relatively calm. Qatar's prime minister says mediation is still active. There is no ceasefire. There is no signed deal.
Why does this matter so much? Because oil spent the whole week betting on that deal. Brent crude fell more than sixteen percent on the week, to ninety eight dollars and thirty two cents. WTI fell nearly thirteen percent, to ninety dollars and eighty three cents. That is the biggest weekly drop in years. When a market has already priced the good news, a weekend of mixed headlines leaves it exposed. So for Monday, I see two-way pressure on oil. A signed deal leans one way. Another tanker attack leans the other. Apart from this, there was no other big news this weekend.
Now, the week that was. Three beats.
Beat one. The US midterm elections. Democrats won both the House and the Senate. Stocks rose early in the week. Then worries grew that new rules could slow down data centre building, and that hit the AI trade.
Beat two. Thursday. The S&P 500 fell four point three six percent, its worst day since April last year. The Philadelphia chip index fell twelve percent. Nvidia fell nine percent. About three trillion dollars of market value disappeared in one session.
Beat three. Friday bounced. The Nasdaq rose one point one percent. AMD jumped eleven percent. But one good day does not repair a bad week. The Nasdaq still lost three point four percent. The S&P 500 lost two point seven percent. The Dow lost less than one percent, helped by its lower tech weight.
In Asia, Friday was harder. Japan's Nikkei fell almost six percent, its fifth straight down day. Korea's market triggered a circuit breaker in the morning. Hong Kong fell one point two seven percent on Friday, but still had its best week since early March. Here at home, the KLCI fell one point one seven percent to one thousand six hundred and sixteen. The ringgit weakened to four point zero five against the US dollar. Palm oil futures had a rough week too, down about nine percent to four thousand two hundred and fifty eight ringgit a tonne.
And gold? Gold led all the major assets, up about four point six percent on the week.
Now, the honest part. Last Monday I said three things were weighing on markets. A tech sell-off. Brent above one hundred and thirteen dollars. And a Fed that markets expected to hike. Tech fell harder than I suggested. Hike odds did rise. But oil went the other way, hard. So I got it half right. I would rather tell you that than pretend I saw it all.
So what do we take note of this week?
The big one is US inflation. October CPI comes out on Tuesday at nine thirty at night, Malaysia time. Friday's jobs report was strong. One hundred and sixty five thousand jobs, against about sixty five thousand expected. Unemployment dropped to four point one percent. After that, the odds of a December rate hike rose to around seventy seven percent. A hot CPI adds upward pressure on yields, and downward pressure on gold and stocks. A soft one eases both.
On Friday night, US producer prices land at the same time, nine thirty. In between, watch the AI earnings. CoreWeave reports on Tuesday night, US time. Cisco and Applied Materials report on Thursday night, US time. They will tell us whether AI demand is holding up after last week's scare.
Also on the list. China's inflation on Monday morning. The US bond market is closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day. And the UK's third quarter growth number on Thursday afternoon.
So here is how I would prepare. Before Monday's open, look at your candles. Check the direction. Ask if the momentum is still there. Three things. Then decide your risk size before you place anything, not after.
This is educational market commentary, not personal financial advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Markets carry risk of loss. Size your risk before any trade.
Survive first. See you tomorrow.