Exploring the frontiers of Technology and AI
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At the end of last year, Meta announced a $2 billion acquisition of an AI startup called Manus.
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They make AI agents very similar to OpenCore, but they were founded in China.
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Then in March recently, the two founders visited China on business and were
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told that they couldn't leave the country.
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Their passports were taken away from them and they were blacklisted from travel.
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Then today, China revealed that they have completely banned the acquisition
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deal by Meta and have requested that Meta reverse the entire deal.
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Now, this is unprecedented from China. For the last 20 years,
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they've happily accepted US capital, but this marks the turning point after
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three years where China has built their own independent AI stack and they don't
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need to rely on America anymore.
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Yeah, those two people from that meeting last month, that was the CEO and the
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chief scientist of Manus.
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They got a summons from the Chinese
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government body called the National Development and Reform Commission.
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Basically, it's the agency that runs the country's economy. They go to the meeting,
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they get questioned about the meta deal, and then they say, you are not allowed
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to leave. Now, fast forward to today.
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Four weeks, I will say, before Donald Trump was supposed to land in Beijing
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to meet with Xi Jinping, China killed the deal. And they did so in one sentence.
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They said, just undo it. The two men still can't leave.
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So now, not only are the two people stuck in China, but the deal...
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Meta has signed with manis is now
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kind of in a weird gray area now for those
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who aren't familiar with manis manis is meta's response
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to open claw open claw is the claw it is the agentic system
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that kind of runs your life for you it performs agentic tasks long form it has
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context does memory it was a big deal for meta and now meta has this problem
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on their hands where china is saying no when the reality is is there's already
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an entire singaporean office set up and the ceo of manis is on the C-suite of Meta already.
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So there's a lot to unpack here. There's a lot to unwind. The tension between
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China and the United States has never been higher.
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I mean, this is pretty unprecedented as it relates to the dynamics between these two countries.
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Yeah, this all started around the time last year that Zuck started acquiring
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or started doing his spending.
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I think he spent in total around $25 billion, $15 billion, which was spent on just one single man.
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But Manus was part of the spending spree. And the timeline on this is pretty
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insane. I've got it pulled up here.
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So in March in 2025, Manus launched their AI agent, right? And it's what you
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just mentioned. It's like its own AI operating system.
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And within like 24 hours or within seven days, rather, they had 2 million people on the waiting list.
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And people were like, I remember this, reselling invite codes for like $1,500.
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$1,000 is crazy.
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I actually tried to acquire one because this is before AI agents existed.
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This is before GPT and Claude had built their own agentic systems. Manus was the first.
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So the founders, with all the success, was like, oh, we've got to kind of kill
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the Chinese image so that Americans will use our product.
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So they ended up moving from Beijing, where they were based,
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to Singapore, and they raised a massive round from Benchmark Capital,
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which is one of the biggest funds in America, I think it was like $70 million.
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And within six months from then, they hit $90 million of revenue run rate.
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So things are looking amazing. And they thought that they'd subverted Chinese
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authority simply by moving their company to Singapore, which is obviously not in China.
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Then in March 2026, China stops the Manus co-founders from leaving the country.
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And today, they've blocked the entire acquisition. Now, the main question that
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pops into my head, Josh, and I don't know if you're able to like answer this for me is,
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are they able to actually do this? I thought the deal was already signed.
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I thought the ink had already dried.
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Like I'm kind of confused how they unwind a deal that's already been dealt.
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I think this is where there's going to be a problem, right?
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It's because like, like we mentioned, there is an entire Singaporean office
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where there's over 100 workers who are from Manus working with Meta.
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The CEO of Manus is on the C-suite in Meta.
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There's a lot of already kind of like baked in progress that has been made after this deal.
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And China pulling the cord creates a lot of tension. And I'm not sure where
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this is going to land because does Meta want to actually go to war with China
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to prevent this blockage from happening?
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Maybe. This is a huge bet for the company and a big bet on the future of the
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company, what this looks like.
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They were starting to roll this out. It was very deeply integrated. It fell apart.
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I don't know what's going to happen. This is actually a pretty insane story.
Speaker1:
Okay. So there are like some crazy parts of this on both sides,
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right? So for Meta, you've spent $2 billion.
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You have hundreds of employees from Manus that now are under Zuck's employment.
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Just to be very clear, it's like under the American company.
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Inc has been sealed. The deal has been done.
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Now, to your point, Manus is being used a lot in Meta.
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But specifically, if you haven't used it as a user, it's being used by advertisers.
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We spoke about this on a previous episode, I think like two weeks ago,
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where Manus is being used by advertisers to spin up their advertising projects.
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And it's actually resulted in a 30% quarterly jump in revenue alone,
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just by people using Matters.
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It's cut out a lot of repetitious manual tasks. So it's a very good product.
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And just because you haven't used it doesn't mean it isn't valuable to Meta.
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They're building it, it's implemented, it's core to their system.
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Advertising is like a lot of Meta's revenue.
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So now they theoretically have to unwind this. But I think the alarm bell that's
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ringing for me, Josh, is China's never done this before.
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They have never unwound a closed deal.
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Let me repeat that again. They've never unwound a closed deal that they have
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like signed off on that is all completely legal, which tells me that they are
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now treating these AI assets, whether you want to call them workers, researchers,
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The actual product itself as a kind of national asset.
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And they're treating it as kind of like a geopolitical asset against the US.
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They feel like if they don't own this thing, then the US is going to wipe them out.
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So I started looking at like other parts or trends And I realized China's kind
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of been like moving in this direction over the last couple of months.
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Specifically, they've like refused to use NVIDIA's GPUs to train their own AI
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models amongst the top Chinese AI labs.
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And they've started mandating that all these Chinese labs start building and
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using the AI models within the China itself and not really open sourcing or
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open sourcing only parts of it, but not the research itself to the US.
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So there's been this cultural shift where China now doesn't really depend on the U.S.
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As they had before in the past or over the last six months.
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They now kind of have their own independence stack. And I think that's probably
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part of what is playing into this story today.
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Yeah, man, I kind of feel so bad for Zuck because he's tried this over and over
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to get this agentic system.
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He first tried to buy Ilya's safe superintelligence, if you remember, and Ilya said no.
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And then he went to another OpenAI co-founder. He went to Mira Mirati's Thinking machines.
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She gave him a no. He reached out to perplexity. They gave him a no.
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And then they wound up paying $15 billion for half of scale AI just to get Alexander Wang.
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So they really were struggling to get some help in this agentic world.
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They finally acquired it through Manus, and now they're having this huge problem.
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And an important caveat that's probably worth mentioning is...
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That it's a little disingenuous and I could see why China's upset.
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Because, I mean, Manus started off in Beijing, then they transferred over to
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Hong Kong, and then they transferred over to Singapore.
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And this is because, I mean, American venture capitalists are not going to invest
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in Chinese companies and China does not want to engage with American acquisitions.
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So they moved to a neutral place.
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When they did this, I think 80 Chinese employees were laid off.
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All of the Weibo posts were deleted.
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All of the new offices were opened up. Everything was a clean slate.
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So the people who helped them get there, they were cut off.
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They started fresh in Singapore. But now China's like, wait a second. No, no, no, no, no.
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You started here. You are Chinese. You're coming back to us.
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And what a disaster for Zuck. This poor company, they can't figure it out.
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They're spending so much money.
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They haven't been able to launch a good product. And they finally got Manus,
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like you mentioned, who was selling these invites for thousands of dollars because it was that good.
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And now it's ripped out from their hands. So really brutal turn of events.
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And it's going to be fascinating to follow Meta and see how they react to this.
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Yeah, I think that the playbook that Manus founders tried to pull off,
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but failed at was, oh, yeah, if we just wipe ourselves or rather the premise
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of the actual company HQ to another country, we can evade Chinese law.
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But remember, China is more of a dictatorship in this sense.
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And they were like, hey, you can't actually do this. So we can pull your passports
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and unwind this entire deal because it is still effectively Chinese. It was founded in China.
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Now, I just want to comment on China's AI strategy in general,
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because I think it plays very well into this particular story today.
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Manus doesn't actually own any AI models.
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I don't know if you guys knew that or the people listening to this knew that,
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but they're kind of like a wrapper over a bunch of different AI models.
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And typically, the AI models that they would use are American AI models, right?
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But since, well, actually, over the last seven days, China released three AI models.
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I think it was DeepSeek V4, Kimi K2.6. I'm just retesting my a model knowledge here now, a Qen 3.6.
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And people have heard about Chinese models all along, right?
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They're like, oh, it's open source, but it's never as good.
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These three models are at parity, if not as good, as Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT 5.4.
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So pretty much 90% of Frontier model capability or 95% of Frontier model capability
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you could now access for free.
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100% open source, download, run it on your own devices or GPUs if you happen
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to have a couple laying at home for whatever reason.
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And they're all Chinese models. Chinese models are actually also being used
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in a bunch of Silicon Valley startups who can't afford to kind of run and fine
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tune their own models, which of course, Claude and GPT are close source.
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So they can't actually do that.
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And it takes hundreds of millions of dollars to train your own model.
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So the point is, Chinese models are more accessible and more easily fine tuned.
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So why wouldn't you use it if you could just access maybe 95% of frontier capability?
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And a large reason for this is because China has started forcing their AI labs
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to train on Chinese-made chips.
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Now, I just want to spend a very quick moment to explain this. DeepSeek, Moonshot,
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And Alibaba have been mandated by the Chinese authorities to not train their
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AI models on NVIDIA chips.
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Now, typically, America had banned China from buying the chips.
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That got reverted, and America was like, cool, you can have these chips.
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China said, nah, we're good. We're going to train our own chips to be better
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so that we aren't reliant on America at all.
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And it seems that Huawei specifically has caught up.
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That's what all these latest models that I just mentioned are trained on and
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are inferenced on. And now it seems like that gap has closed.
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So it doesn't really matter.
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This is worrying, from my perspective, at least, because America could keep tabs on China.
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And now they're kind of given the opportunity to leapfrog us.
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They have a heck ton more energy.
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So this is like the alarm bells ringing from today's story. Like Manus isn't
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just about like one startup. It's about China's entire strategy.
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Yeah. And I mean, everyone knows the name DeepSeek now. DeepSeek was the ones
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that released that paper early on, they kind of changed the game as it comes
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to, I guess, like reasoning and AI models, where OpenAI kind of figured it out,
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but DeepSeek realized it and then published it publicly and then everyone followed on.
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DeepSeek has always been the frontier of this open source race.
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And just on Friday, DeepSeek released V4, which is kind of a scary benchmark
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relative to the other open source models.
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I mean, I'm looking at the chart here and it actually performs better on a few
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benchmarks than GPT 5.5,
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which is OpenAI's brand new frontier model that just came
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out last week and i mean just last week alone china
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dropped three huge models we got deep cv4 which is
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probably the flagship but then there was that new quen model the new kimmy model
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they're publishing at a much faster cadence and you have to imagine that part
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of this comes from just their their boldness and willing to distill the larger
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models from the united states but also their capabilities to train these at
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an increasing rate i mean they're clearly innovating on the software side but something's working on,
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at this cadence with this type of power.
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On that note, Gavin Baker put out an amazing analysis.
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Did you watch the Duakesh episode where he's like grilling Jensen and Jensen
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just says like, I'm not a loser, like NVIDIA is not this, right?
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So Gavin Baker commented on this and he said, actually, Jensen makes a really
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good point where the chips that NVIDIA builds are specifically built with the
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understanding that the U.S.
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Has a very limited amount of energy.
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That's number one. Number two, that a lot of these chips are gonna be based
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on pre-training, which is like the part that comes, I guess,
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before post-training, obviously.
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But the point is, it's like a large training run, right? It's the bulk of the expense.
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Now, China took a different approach. They said, well, we're not energy-constrained.
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We have 3X more energy than the U.S.
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And also, we think that building the best AI model happens after pre-training,
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so in the post-training thing.
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Now, one thing that Dario Amode of Anthropic and Sam Altman of OpenAI have announced
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with their latest models, including Claude Mythos, is inference has been the
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key to unlock a smarter model.
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So they're confirming what the Chinese has also confirmed.
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And so the reason why Chinese chips specifically are doing so well is because
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they're designed around inference.
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So the architecture for a Chinese chip, if you were to try and train like a
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US model, looks very different.
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And it actually wouldn't work. The hardware actually kind of delineates at this point.
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So China, although it seems like we're competing, is building their own kind
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of like stack themselves that wouldn't necessarily operate or work in the US.
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And I think that's a story that most people like aren't addressing at this point.
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And we're giving China the freedom to go do that right now.
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Yeah, that perhaps talks to like the increased velocity, right,
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that they've been having is because they're not spending that much time on pre-training.
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They're all in on inference, all in on distillation.
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And we've kind of seen this, I guess,
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A way that you could track this back to something that we've seen is how something
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like GPT 5.7 Nano will actually be far more superior than the following model,
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even though it's cheaper and smaller.
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And it's because it takes advantage of this distillation. And we see this all
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the time where with Nano Banana, Google's image generation model,
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Nano Banana Nano, like the small one, was actually better than the pro one,
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even though it had much less model weights.
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And I think what we're seeing here is a lot of innovation on that inference
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side, on just like a faster compute.
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And Google's been addressing this recently. They split their most recent TPU
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into two, one just for pre-training, one for inference.
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It's clear that China is very much over-indexing on inference.
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And right now, that's where a lot of the gains are happening.
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I just wanted to pull up this post because you just reminded me of something.
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For those of you who say like no one uses Chinese models, the answer is just you're wrong.
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So Kimi K 2.6, which was released last week, and it was actually the first model
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of the three models that we mentioned, DeepSeek v4 was the last one,
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Is now the number one most used model on OpenWriter.
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OpenWriter is this website where you can basically get access to all the models
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sometimes before they actually officially release, and it can track token usage.
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Now, token usage is the metric that you can kind of track to figure out
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which model actually is worth its weight in gold and what are people using it for?
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OpenRapta reveals that Chinese models take the number one spot almost the entire time.
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And part of that is probably because a lot of the closed-source models don't
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want to reveal their full metrics.
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But the point being is the token usage of Chinese models have now surpassed U.S.
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Token consumption, at least from publicly available data.
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So the data would then indicate that these Chinese models are obviously getting
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not only better, but more accessible to any and all developers that want to
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use it. It's not just enterprises that use it.
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It is just open source developers or just developers that can't afford to train
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or pre-train their own models.
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So the Chinese models are way more powerful at this point. They've almost caught
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up to parity with the US models.
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I think this probably suggests, if I had to guess, that the next couple of iterations
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of Chinese models will probably end up leapfrogging some of the US ones.
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This is just a guess from my end. And so it'll probably switch to becoming closed
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source. I can't see China wanting to open source these things or continue to
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open source these models if they're doing things like unwinding Manus deals
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and trying to keep the assets on mainland China.
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Well, you know who's probably happy about these open source models doing well?
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And I'm like, this is a sneaky one, but probably Jensen.
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And after I watched that interview that he had with Dorkesh,
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I think one thing that became clear to me is that open source models benefit
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NVIDIA more than anybody else.
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And I think that's why NVIDIA has really been leaning in heavily to be the leader
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in the United States, at least in terms of open source AI,
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because it requires the world to train on an open hardware stack,
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right? If everyone is...
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Creating these models and they're publishing the weights, you can train them on NVIDIA GPUs.
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Closed source models, like someone like Anthropic or OpenAI,
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who we're seeing really heavily sway towards moving to TPUs or accelerators
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that are not made by NVIDIA, they have the ability to build this whole custom
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stack built on hardware that isn't NVIDIA's.
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And that seems to be like a real threat to the NVIDIA platform.
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So when Jensen got a little bit heated on the podcast, I have a,
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Open source really benefits them. It makes everyone want to use NVIDIA chips.
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The second these closed source models win, and if everything becomes closed
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source, there's a strong bias towards these closed loop kind of hardware stacks
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that NVIDIA is no longer in the loop on.
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And that could create a little bit of an issue for the company.
Speaker1:
Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. In this interview,
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actually, for those of you who haven't watched it, definitely go watch it.
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Jensen says, or was asked, hey, you dominate on GPUs. Why don't you move up
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the stackers and dominate there as well.
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You obviously know so much about how this is going to play out.
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And he answers very simply, I am so hyper-focused on GPUs and the hardware architecture,
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and this is the game I want to play, dominate, and own, right? That was his response.
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So he's hyper-focused on winning GPU architectures and selling the picks and
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shovels for this entire race.
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NVIDIA also announced Nemo Claw, which is their enterprise version of Open Claw.
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Now, you might be asking, okay, why is NVIDIA launching that?
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Why are they launching a bunch of open source models, which seemingly like no one is using?
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It's to your point, he wants to push adoption of AI in general,
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whatever is built on top of his NVIDIA GPUs will demand more NVIDIA GPUs in
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the future. And that's how he's going to make this money.
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And guess what happened at the end of last week, NVIDIA once again surpassed
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a $5 trillion market cap, they went above, then they went below.
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And now they're sitting pretty above it. So his plan is paying off.
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He couldn't explicitly say clearly on the podcast that I'm going to make a lot
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of money if I sell GPUs to China.
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Obviously, he can't say that. It's in poor taste. It would go against the philosophical
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argument that he was making. But that is the truth, ultimately.
Speaker0:
Yeah. So the Game of Thrones is getting a little weird now because now we're
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seeing direct combat in a way between China and the United States.
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We're seeing a lot of that happen just domestically across these companies.
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It is getting higher and higher stakes.
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And you could see as the stakes get higher, people get a little more emotionally
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charged. People make larger decisions.
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And China pulling the rug on this deal sets a pretty crazy precedent.
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I mean, this has never happened before where they've actually interfered with
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something on a material scale.
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$2 billion is a lot of money. and it's been months that
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they have been integrating madness into the platform now meta
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if they do decide to actually unwind this deal is kind
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of sitting in a little bit of an uncomfortable position because
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they still haven't released their product and they now
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don't have a clear path to getting a claw-like operating
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system for their software that has all this
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rich data about all its users so we'll be following the story closely
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we'll be following the china story closely we will be testing out
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all these models including deep seek v4 which i haven't had a chance to play
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around with but seems like it's pretty powerful and i think that's probably
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the update for for china right now it's just kind of wait and see like we have
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this news that came out we're going to see how meta responds we'll see how china
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responds and if they're actually willing to unwind this deal for the sake of
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doing what the chinese government wants.
Speaker1:
Yeah, can we get a response from Meta, please? It's been like 12 hours since this announcement.
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And I'm on the Manus website right now. It says Manus is now a part of Meta.
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So they haven't updated it yet.
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They've probably got a ton of lawyers putting together a response.
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But if you're listening to this from Meta and you want to give us Undisclosed
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information via an anonymous tip, our DMs are open. Feel free to reach out.
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But it'll be sad to see something like this go. I think OpenCore started a movement.
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Manus is probably number two. Maybe Anthropics called Cowork is number two as well.
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But it is a good enough product and it gave Meta the upper hand.
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They were actually making money from this thing. So it's sad to see it happen.
Speaker0:
I have a question for you, EJS. So Trump is going to China in like two or three
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weeks to meet with Xi Jinping.
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So how important of a topic do you think this is? Like, is this something that
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would be raised to that level?
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Is Trump going to discuss this with Xi Jinping to try to work out a deal?
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Like, is AI and meta that important that this acquisition go through?
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I think that's going to be an interesting thing to follow too.
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Like, does this become a topic on the debate table between the two of them?
Speaker1:
Okay. So I don't have a tinfoil hat, but I'm putting it on, right?
Speaker1:
To answer this question. Okay, cool.
Speaker1:
I think China is going to use this as a bargaining chip, pun intended,
Speaker1:
to get access to bleeding edge NVIDIA GPUs.
Speaker1:
I think this is a chess move, right?
Speaker1:
Because right now, NVIDIA is selling them GPUs, but they're like the old ones.
Speaker1:
They're the ones like in the warehouse share, the discarded items, right?
Speaker1:
They want to like keep China on a leash. I think Xi Jinping is going to go to
Speaker1:
Trump and say, hey, listen, we can do this ourselves, but we're willing to pay
Speaker1:
for your GPUs as long as you give us access to the best one. no frills.
Speaker1:
And I think he's going to use this as a bargaining chip. Otherwise,
Speaker1:
we're not going to take any more investment from America. Yeah.
Speaker0:
That could be. It's going to be an interesting dynamic. We'll see.
Speaker0:
I love that this has elevated to the global stage.
Speaker0:
This is now the single hottest topic in the world. So we will be here to follow
Speaker0:
it as always. Thank you guys so much for watching this episode.
Speaker0:
I hope you enjoyed. We had an episode that just released yesterday talking to
Speaker0:
the founder of USVC, an interview, a rare interview with the general partner
Speaker0:
from this fund that gives you access to Anthropix, SpaceX,
Speaker0:
OpenAI, a lot of the large stocks that you would want to be investing in pre-IPO.
Speaker0:
That was pretty interesting.
Speaker0:
And then we'll have a whole bunch of new episodes coming out this week.
Speaker0:
So if you enjoyed, please don't forget to share with your friends,
Speaker0:
like, comment, leave a message, give us a five-star review, whatever you want to do.
Speaker0:
But as always, thank you guys so much for watching and we will see you guys in the next one.
Speaker1:
See you guys.