Hydrocarbon Engineering Podcast

Fauzeya Rahman, LNG Specialist and Editor at ICIS, joins us to explore the key trends, opportunities and challenges facing the LNG markets across North and Latin America into 2026 and beyond.
 
We discuss:
  • What the LNG landscape looks like coming out of 2025.
  • The fastest evolving regions in the North American market.
  • How the US LNG deals space is shaping up for 2026.
  • The evolution of the Latin American LNG market, including the impact of recent developments in Venezuela.
  • Structural shifts in the North American LNG market beyond 2026.
This episode of the Hydrocarbon Engineering Podcast is sponsored by ROCKWOOL Technical Insulation. Designed for durability and sustainability, ROCKWOOL’s high-performance stone wool insulation helps control process temperatures, reduce energy loss, mitigate corrosion under insulation, and enhance fire and acoustic protection. The result – safer operations, improved asset integrity, and long-term performance across critical process industries. Learn more at https://rti.rockwool.com.

Creators and Guests

Host
Callum O'Reilly
Callum leads the editorial teams at Hydrocarbon Engineering, commissioning articles and features, and representing the magazine at industry events.
Guest
Fauzeya Rahman
LNG Specialist and Editor

What is Hydrocarbon Engineering Podcast?

The Hydrocarbon Engineering podcast: a podcast series for professionals in the downstream refining, petrochemical and gas processing industries.

Callum O'Reilly:

Welcome to the Hydrocarbon Engineering Podcast. I'm Calum O'Reilly and today we're talking LNG with Farzia Rahman, LNG specialist and editor at ICIS. Following the launch of ICIS's 2026 North American LNG outlet, we'll dig into some of the key trends, opportunities and challenges facing the LNG markets across North And Latin America into 2026 and beyond. I hope you enjoy the episode.

Advert:

This episode of the Hydrocarbon Engineering Podcast is sponsored by Rockwell Technical Insulation. Designed for durability and sustainability, Rockwell's high performance stone wall insulation helps control process temperatures, reduce energy loss, mitigate corrosion under insulation, and enhance fire and acoustic protection. The result? Safer operations, improved asset integrity, and long term performance across critical process industries. Learn more at rti.rockwall.com.

Callum O'Reilly:

Hi, Fazia, and welcome to the podcast. Thanks so much for joining us today.

Fauzeya Rahman:

Thank you for having me.

Callum O'Reilly:

So, Fazia, following on from ICIS' recently published 2026 North American LNG outlook, what does The US LNG export landscape look like coming out of 2025 and going into 2026?

Fauzeya Rahman:

So 2025 definitely saw record production compared to the year before, with The US firmly establishing itself as the top global producer. So 2025, by our estimates, The US produced alone close to 115,000,000 tons, and that was nearly 30% higher than the previous year. So, in 2026, we expect that storyline to continue with higher output from The U. S, but it'll be at a slightly slower pace than 2025. So, we forecast in our global supply and demand forecast about a 13% growth for US LNG compared to 2025.

Fauzeya Rahman:

So that comes out to, I think, just under 130,000,000 tons. So significant supply coming from The US, and that is going to continue. And that will be led by ongoing commissioning activities from both Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG and then also Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage three. That is also in the commissioning process. And then we're expecting new volumes from Golden Pass in Texas.

Callum O'Reilly:

And how does this impact the global supply landscape?

Fauzeya Rahman:

So we expect to see 2026 be a mostly balanced year, actually. And the oversupply that is forecast to take shape, that will be more evident in 2027. But that's also depending on project timelines holding. So the market is definitely shifting into this more supply heavy scenario, but that is going to be seen more in 2027 with this year being more balanced. And beyond The US, also, we will see new Qatari volumes, but that is likely going to be, I think, later in 2026.

Callum O'Reilly:

So, Farzee, you've already mentioned a number of projects in North America, but what are some of the fastest evolving regions within the North American market?

Fauzeya Rahman:

So in The US, the heaviest LNG producing region is, of course, The US Gulf, And we do have new activity that is commissioning, or it reached FID last year and is in the construction phase. But in North America, looking beyond The US, we have LNG Canada that's ramping up on the Pacific Coast. And then also in Mexico, Sempra's Costa Azul project is expecting first LNG later this year. So we will see these West Coast, Pacific Coast projects that are advancing, and that gives the new proximity to Asia that The US Gulf projects don't have.

Callum O'Reilly:

And how is The US LNG deal space shaping up for 2026? And how does this compare to last year?

Fauzeya Rahman:

So last year had a lot of commercial activity. It was a very robust deal making year. We counted, I believe there were six US projects that reached final investment decisions, FIDs. And so, comparing to that, 2026 is looking a bit more subdued. And that could be due to a few things.

Fauzeya Rahman:

One, just the sheer number of projects and volume that was commercially commissioned last year. Then compared to that, also with the overall, with the global supply wave that is coming and starting to take shape, it may add some additional challenges for new projects that are looking to sign those commercial agreements. And also, project costs are just higher than they were before. And so I think also for these projects that are looking to make all of the math work, with the background of this incoming supply wave, it's going to be more challenging.

Callum O'Reilly:

So let's look beyond The US for a moment. And I was wondering, how is Latin America's LNG market evolving as we head into this new year?

Fauzeya Rahman:

I think in Latin America, there are definitely a lot of things to watch in the project development space. I would say the biggest headline is likely Argentina and how plans for the proposed LNG export projects, the various phases, how those advance. Argentina has been a seasonal LNG importer, Then, with its expansive Vaca Muerta shale gas availability, it's looking to develop LNG export projects. So the phase that Argentina's YPF is developing with Italy's NE, that is actually targeting a final investment decision in 2026 for a 12 MTPA floating project. And how that advances, which companies also get involved and sign agreements, it will be very interesting to watch.

Fauzeya Rahman:

And I think it'll just show kind of how the global LNG landscape is changing and developing. And then Colombia, to battle its expected gas supply deficit, it is looking to pursue LNG in floating LNG infrastructure projects that could receive LNG, connect it to the grid. And so there are proposed projects both on the Pacific side and the Caribbean side now to see what advances, what has more momentum to move ahead. That will definitely be something worth watching.

Callum O'Reilly:

And turning to another Latin American country, Farzia, that's seen recent developments in Venezuela, Farzia. How will this impact the LNG market? Does it offer a downside risk to the market?

Fauzeya Rahman:

So Venezuela's gas production is only consumed domestically. In the past, in previous years, there was discussion of Colombia potentially receiving gas flows via pipeline from Venezuela. But this would require significant infrastructure improvements. And if that happens, then only would that gas be able to reach Colombia. If that does happen, then it could limit Colombia's LNG demand.

Fauzeya Rahman:

So that would be one possible related after effect of this. And then on the LNG side, there were ongoing discussions between for Trinidad to access gas from Venezuela's Dragon field. And because Venezuela had ongoing sanctions, there was a specific license required by the US Treasury to pursue development. And the timeline, I believe, was that Trinidad originally was expecting to receive that feed gas from Dragon starting in 2026 to go to its Atlantic LNG facility. But last year, the Trump administration then revoked that license.

Fauzeya Rahman:

And then later in the year, a few months later, granted a six month license, which I believe is not the long term license needed. So there's still discussions, there's still things that need to be figured out. And so the timeline for Trinidad to access that Venezuelan gas, I believe it's still up in the air a bit. But if that works out, and if Trinidad is able to receive that feed gas from Venezuela, then that could help improve production, and it could help with the ongoing feed gas issue that Trinidad has had for its Atlantic LNG facility so that in the context of this upcoming increased global supply, it would be a bit bearish. But I I don't think that the I don't think that it would drastically change Atlantic LNG's output in in the short term.

Callum O'Reilly:

And finally, Farzia, 2026, what structural shifts do you foresee in the North American LNG landscape, particularly through to twenty to two thousand and thirty?

Fauzeya Rahman:

As we said earlier, with the new volumes that are coming up on the Pacific Side, that is putting North American volumes in much closer proximity to Asia. So I think that will be definitely something to watch how the market and how trade flows change with these new supply points. Also, with the upcoming supply wave coming online, that is likely to lower LNG prices. And then with lower LNG prices, does that encourage smaller buyers to enter the market? If so, how does that change trade flows and market activity?

Fauzeya Rahman:

So I think that's definitely some of the shifts that we'll be seeing and watching. And another thing that I expect to see will be a little bit more focused on The US LNG projects, some of those that reached FID with larger uncontracted volumes, that they're holding on to a larger percentage of offtake. So how do those companies manage that? Is it going to be that more delivered deals with more companies taking on shipping and taking on those extra aspects of the whole LNG cargo transaction. So I think there's a lot of interesting things that will take shape in the next like four to five years with that background of global oversupply playing out.

Callum O'Reilly:

K. Great. Thank you so much for joining us, Farzia, and sharing your insights into the latest developments in the LNG markets in North And Latin America as we enter a new year. We really, really appreciate your time today.

Fauzeya Rahman:

Oh, thank you so much.

Callum O'Reilly:

Thanks for joining us for this deep dive into the LNG outlook in North And Latin America. From how the export landscape is shifting post 2025 to what deal making, regional growth and global supply could look like in 2026 and beyond. I'd like to extend my thanks to Farzia once again for her expert insight into this topic. If you want to stay on top of what's happening in the LNG sector make sure you sign up for a free subscription to two of our magazines here at Gladion publications. Just head to hydrocarbonengineeringcom/magazine where you can sign up for Hydrocarbon Engineering Magazine as well as our sister title covering the LNG sector, LNG Industry Magazine.

Callum O'Reilly:

Thank you again for listening.

Advert:

This episode of the Hydrocarbon Engineering Podcast is sponsored by Rockwell Technical Insulation. Designed for durability and sustainability, Rockwell's high performance stonewall insulation helps control process temperatures, reduce energy loss, mitigate corrosion under insulation, and enhance fire and acoustic protection. The result? Safer operations, improved asset integrity, and long term performance across critical process industries. Learn more at www.rti.rockwall.com