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JD - @CypherpunkCine
Bondor - @gildedpleb
Anton - @antonseim
Cory - @PykeCory
Zack - @idiotfortruth
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Bitcoin makes everything better. Join the team and our guests as we unpack how, why, and where we go from here.
It does just make me smile.
The best for a song.
Yeah.
The best for a song.
How are you doing, Bondor?
How's the world going in your world?
Just chugging through, trying to set some stuff up.
It's just painful.
No, that's not right.
Okay, you got to do it again.
No, that's not right.
Okay, you got to do it again.
Development.
That's how it is.
Man.
It's funny to me how the stop-and-go nature of, like, development or just,
or rather, like, everything has a stop-and-go nature to it.
It's like if you're going to plant, you know,
trees or whatever it is, or, like, plant a garden in my case,
it's like you got to do all the planting and then you just kind of wait,
and then you got to get in there and weed it every day,
and then you got to wait.
It's like just the stop-and-go back and forth.
It's kind of built in everything.
It's the same thing with, like, working out,
but it's just interesting how, I don't know,
we're going to get into an existential thing in my mind of everything.
It's going to get deep, but it's so funny.
Yeah, so for today, I would love to actually talk with you about, and again,
you know, for anybody just tuning in for the first time,
this is just an open forum conversation, Better Buy Bitcoin,
where the whole thinking and premise is just how does Bitcoin make things better.
So the double entendre of you should buy it, but if you do buy it
and when you do buy it, everything,
the rising tide of Bitcoin will make everything Bitcoin, everything better.
And my personal take is kind of advertising.
I love advertising.
I love the messaging and marketing problem of things.
And so I'm always trying to kind of approach different things in this world
about how do you tell that story?
How do you sell this?
How do you make people actually care about it?
And so that's just kind of me, JD.
Do you want to give a quick take on you?
Yeah, I'm Pandor.
I've been in Bitcoin for a bit now, and I got to get better at it.
Getting it down quick and easy.
I'm presently a developer, but I've worked in film and entertainment,
written a bunch, and also worked in finance
and had a whole slew of things here in Los Angeles with JD.
That's good.
I'm just trying to figure it out.
Yeah, it ruins everything, and I've done a lot of things,
and it's ruined all of them.
And so now we're trying to, there's not much else you can do except for attack
fiat via Bitcoin.
I saw, actually, maybe we'd start here and then,
because I would love to talk today about stack math, which goes into it.
And maybe it should be stack maths, just like Bitcoins for the audience.
I saw today this tweet from a guy who, let me see if I can pull it up.
But he was the bad guy.
So it was this tweet from.
SPF.
Yeah, no, the Bitcoin bad guy.
But he was posting a thread from a tweet he had,
and I'll pull it up really quick.
Let me just actually get this pulled up here so I'm not doxing myself.
But he, no, let's do a double click.
I can make this go full screen.
But he was kind of positing a way for the Bitcoin strategic reserve to happen,
or rather it was like more of a theory.
And I actually really agree with this theory.
The theory was they're going to audit Fort Knox.
Not only is the gold not going to be there,
but there will be a ton more gold than anyone had expected.
Gold will pump hard.
The U.S. will dump gold on the rest of the world for tens of trillions of dollars
and then pump all that into Bitcoin, creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Bitcoin goes to millions.
Pay off all the debts.
Dude, I just love this theory, though, because, you know, he's right.
Saylor has said this idea and kind of brought that out there.
And a friend of his is like, oh, your head's at, you know,
I hope that this audit works and they're supposed to live stream it.
But actually this to me would play directly to what I think Trump's greatest
strength is, which is theater.
Trump is a master marketer and he's a master kind of like,
I call him a magician in my mind.
He's a messaging magician because if you're going to do,
like right now the most important thing happening in the world is not the
Epstein client list.
It's everything happening in the background that Trump doesn't want you to
pay attention to.
The Epstein client list and the amount of fervor and everything he's making
happening right now,
like what is actually happening today are probably some of the biggest moves
that nobody's talking about.
This is all like the Epstein thing and the way it's playing out is 100% for
the purpose of distracting from something else.
There's no way they would do like this.
They would have just put it online.
Who cares?
But this is like a media publicity stunt and it's like,
this is not what it's supposed to be.
Something else is going on.
Yep.
And I love that.
And I think that that to me aligns with this theory that bad guy BTC has
because from my perspective,
just as an advertiser and as marketer,
this is pure good political theater.
And this particular thing that bad guy is saying is the political theater of,
and this is why also I think we're seeing this,
like the comics of all the people like shipping their gold to Fort Knox,
like Fort Knox going crazy.
I do believe this is the first time rehypothecated gold is kind of getting
called if you will.
And so they're basically just like, hey,
remember that gold that we sold you?
We need to buy it back.
And so we're seeing this huge inflow of gold,
quote unquote,
but what we're actually seeing is just kind of the shell game in New York.
And we're seeing all of these gold people move all their gold to these comics
stores and wherever they are.
And again, this is my ignorance.
I don't really know what the indexes are or whatever when it comes to gold.
And you can probably give some more insight on that because I know you have
a finance background bond or, but the thing that's interesting to me about this.
I have no insight, nothing.
Okay.
On the gold side.
I just love this because the fact that Trump has telegraphed that he wants to
go to Fort Knox,
the fact that he's telegraphed that he knows Jay Powell has to do what he says
that tells me everything I need to know that Trump knows the Ponzi is up to a
degree.
The thing he did yesterday with or two days ago with the,
like the Trump gold card as he's calling it,
which I love that he's calling it the Trump America gold card to like pay and
pay $5 million and get a U S green card.
You're not getting citizenship.
You're getting a green card,
but you get a U S passport.
That's awesome because all of that to me tells me that Trump understands the
Fiat Ponzi and he understands that the only way that the Fiat Ponzi doesn't
unravel is for them to fix the main balance sheet,
which is the U S balance sheet.
And so if he can fix the U S dollar balance sheet and keep the U S dollar as
the world reserve currency,
i.e. the powerhouse currency,
but then back it with a hard currency like Bitcoin,
it is actually the only way to stop a Weimar style event from happening here.
That's my take on it though.
But I don't think this,
this could play directly into that because you then just re-dump all this
rehypothecated gold back on everybody else and you move the Ponzi bucks into
Bitcoin,
but then you've actually moved the Ponzi bucks into Bitcoin and actually set
the floor of Bitcoin where it should be.
And so I'm actually like as a Bitcoin or this was pretty cool because it's,
it's,
it's a way of destroying the system without causing massive chaos.
Maybe we want the chaos,
but I don't know.
I feel like massive chaos.
No,
nobody wants chaos.
Um,
but I didn't like,
I mean,
we've talked about this before.
The whole Weimar thing,
like there's just no chance of anything happening.
Even if we continue on our own current path with,
with only the technology that exists right now,
there's no Weimar future.
Those like that kind of system is like completely over.
Now,
what you're talking about is,
is actually pretty interesting,
but I have to spend more time thinking about it.
I'm like,
I'm only just saw the little note today that was like,
Oh yeah,
we're doing a $5 million solution.
The first thing comes to mind is like,
that's not enough money.
You just like make it like 10 million bucks at least because the people who are
interested in purchasing that,
you can have five million bucks,
bro.
We just,
they have 10 million bucks.
If they have 5 million,
they have 10 million.
The other contingencies on it though.
It's actually,
that's a great,
that's a great point.
There's other contingencies,
contingencies on it.
Um,
let me see if I can pull it up.
I,
you have to bring,
it's like you pay 5 million bucks for the thing.
Actually,
let me see if I can just get grog to give me,
what are all the stats on the Trump gold card?
It's like,
you have to bring,
you pay 5 million bucks.
You have to bring five jobs or you have,
you have to create five jobs.
Um,
you have to do a minimum investment.
So it's like the,
the,
it's kind of like the,
the,
the fee at the country club is the way I look at it.
The $5 million is the fee at the country club,
but it's not the entire thing.
It's like 5 million bucks to,
to,
to join.
And then,
you know,
you have to do,
uh,
so many other things that,
that are super interesting.
And grog is taking forever to actually get me this info.
But,
um,
it's like thinking right now.
Oh,
so it's a minimum investment of $500,000.
And let's see,
minimum investment $500,000.
And you have to create at least 10 jobs.
And so,
yeah,
it's,
it's like a bigger thing than just,
um,
that,
and it's also merit-based.
Um,
so it's like all these,
these simple things.
Let's see.
Yeah.
The,
the,
the viewers don't care about me reading stuff,
but like,
that's the thing.
Yeah.
I was like,
I'm,
I need to,
I need to move this to a different thing so I can actually share the screen without doxxing
my name,
but I'll do that for next time for next week.
Um,
cool.
Yeah.
So that was my,
that was my take though on,
uh,
on the Fort Knox thing.
Do you have any thoughts on Fort Knox theater before we jump into stack math?
No,
Fort Knox,
it might even just be the same thing.
It's like,
let's make Canada a state.
It's like,
what does he actually want?
I don't know,
man.
Golf of America is pretty awesome.
So just going to say,
yeah,
but there's no consequence.
No,
it's like literally just,
well,
whatever.
We're just going to change some database entries.
Cool.
It's not for sure.
It's literally just to make people scream.
It's the best.
He's literally just doing it to make everybody upset.
It's,
uh,
it's awesome.
Yeah.
So cool.
Speaking of things that aren't going to make you upset,
stack math.
So tell me,
I'm going to share.
Yeah,
you gotta,
you gotta walk through it.
I'm going to share my screen,
but,
um,
for somebody who is,
um,
mathematically challenged like myself at times,
uh,
walk me through this because it looks awesome and intimidating.
So you're basically looking at a visualization of a,
what we're all familiar with,
which is the Bitcoin drawdown calculator,
um,
any retirement calculator,
right?
Except you're looking at the,
the,
the visual form of that calculator.
Now there's a,
there's a bunch of complication,
which kind of makes it a little bit more difficult to understand,
which we'll go through when we do the tutorial.
But just as some background noise here,
um,
basically every single calculator out there that I've seen,
um,
fails to account for ergodicity and the probability of,
of events.
So,
and what is ergodicity?
Ergodicity is like,
if you have a range,
like if something is ergodic,
if it has the property,
the property of being ergodic,
it will go like you give it enough time,
it will traverse every,
every possible area in that range.
Even if it's like has normal distribution or something like that.
So ergodicity,
you can think of ergodicity as like,
if you give it enough time,
you will see every point that's possible.
Okay.
Now,
that's important for plotting Bitcoin because as we know,
Bitcoin follows a price trajectory and it's like,
that's where all the Bitcoin price models come from and everything else.
But those prices are a range.
They do not follow a straight line.
And if you put it in a range,
you should expect that the Bitcoin price travels through that range.
Now I might not travel and hit every point in that range and be like truly ergodic,
but if it's not traveling in the range,
then your calculator is just garbage because you're just going on a straight line.
And that's just,
it's impossible to plan or do any drawdown on it.
So it's essentially a,
like a conservation of matter type or conservation of momentum type situation.
Right.
So it's like if I'm looking at this and this is again,
just me trying to make sense of this,
but it's like if you kick the ball up in the air and you know about where the,
you know, is it Apogee or whatever it is that,
but you know where the apex,
the top most point is,
it's going to come back down and bounce off of the bottom most point again.
And so you can,
the ergodicity is an assumption that the ball is going to bounce roughly within
this range essentially.
Right.
That's kind of the way to think about it.
Or I would,
I would more like,
I don't necessarily think of like a ball bouncing is the right thing because you need a container.
Like,
You can't have ergodicity without a container.
So think of like a marble,
like in a box and you're just shaking the box.
Like what's going to happen with that marble.
It's like,
it's just going to be going every single where right.
Every single place it can go in the box.
It's just going to be bouncing around.
Now,
if you bounce it around in the box for whatever,
five minutes,
you're going to hit 20,
30,
40% of the space in the box or something.
Right.
And like,
oh,
you know,
not like it wasn't,
it didn't hit this exact location or molecularly.
It's like,
it was just a little bit molecule off of this location.
But if you just sit there shaking a box for whatever,
10,000 years,
you will hit every single possible place in the box.
The marble will be every single possible place.
So what you're saying is the,
everyone in the world understands ergodicity.
If you've ever been born in the nineties and watch this.
Yes,
exactly.
Excellent.
Now there's,
there's different probabilities.
Like,
you know,
this,
this DVD screensaver has a certain path and it seems pretty defined,
but if you like put probabilities on it where it's like 90% of the time,
it's in the right-handed screen.
But for that 10% of the time that it's on the left-hand screen,
it's still there,
you know,
and you draw it out.
You know,
if you watch it for 10 minutes,
you'll say like,
oh,
it's never going to fill up the left side of the screen because it's
always on the right side of the screen.
Like it doesn't matter.
That is still an ergodic system.
Right.
Got it.
So ergodicity,
you know,
I found out about it through to lab and either fooled by randomness or one of
those other books,
but that it's a,
it's a fundamental principle of all sorts of systems.
And if you don't follow and understand the system,
well,
you're not going to,
you're not going to have a strong understanding of,
or if you don't follow the system in terms of its actual behavior,
you're not going to have a good,
strong understanding of predicting what can happen next in that system.
Yeah.
I mean,
it's just the same thing as like Tiger Woods,
right?
You know,
if you're looking at an ergodic distribution of Tiger Woods performances,
it's like,
you're going to have those moments where he's sick and those moments where
he's having an A plus day.
And so you get to over a long enough time horizon,
see all of the probabilities of he wins the masters and he,
you know,
cheats on his wife and is on the side of the road in handcuffs.
Like you'll have all of those opportunities to see all that stuff.
Right.
Despite their improbabilities.
Yeah.
Awesome.
Cool.
Also Tiger Woods,
I think you're fantastic,
but you don't get mad at me for that.
So,
okay.
Continue then.
So,
so this,
yep.
Let's,
let's actually just do the tutorial because it really,
it does answer all of these questions in sequence for the purpose of
answering these questions.
So anybody out there,
please just do the tutorial all along.
You'll be able to check it out yourself and play with,
spin all the knobs and whatever.
It's also just stack math that X,
Y,
Z is the address if you want to do it.
So I cannot read it on that super small screen over there.
Yeah.
Maybe we don't,
maybe let's just run one actually,
because maybe instead of doing the full tutorial,
because people can just kind of run that on their own.
What if we just kind of like ran a scenario of like,
I'll just give you my scenario,
right?
And it's,
you know,
I won't use my exact scenario,
but let's just say let's run,
let's run the American huddle scenario,
right?
The 6.125,
the perfect amount of Bitcoin scenario.
Oh,
6.125.
So if I am American huddle and I have my perfect 6.125,
I'm on a Bitcoin.
Now what?
So I put in the amount of Bitcoin that I have.
Where,
where do we go next?
Okay.
So you can click on,
so live off Bitcoin on the bottom.
Yeah.
Click on that.
Now this is your retirement drawdown.
Essentially,
this says that in 2033,
you are going to start spending a hundred thousand dollars worth of,
of your Bitcoin every year in perpetuity.
And what's important about that number is that,
Oh,
one thing you need to know rather is that it's inflation adjusted.
So it's not actually a hundred thousand dollars.
It's whatever the inflation adjusted amount,
assuming 8% inflation between now and then.
So it's a hundred thousand dollars of real money today.
Like,
so if you expect that inflation would be 8% every year for the next,
whatever that is,
eight years,
then that is the amount of money you will be spending down per year.
So it's considerably above a hundred thousand dollars,
especially 8%.
Right.
So it's probably like 200,
230,
something like that.
Okay.
So that's what it is.
So now if you close that.
Yep.
Sorry,
I have to name it correctly.
Okay.
So for HODL's perfect amount of Bitcoin drawdown.
Right.
So for HODL's perfect amount of Bitcoin drawdown starting in 2033,
if that's your retirement date,
and then you go,
you drag your mouse to the end of the graph.
You can see where the dotted green line ends.
And that number is.
4.05.
4.05.
So that is the,
that is the 50th percentile.
So that is the percentile amount left that you have in your life.
It's the most likely outcome.
Got it.
So the most likely outcome.
Yes.
Yep.
And so that's the most likely outcome.
Assuming like,
if you put like a death date on this,
or do you put,
I guess end date is optional.
Got it.
So I can put an end date in here.
It's like,
you know,
let's assume you want to go to,
I plan to live to be a hundred.
And I plan to live to see the final block mind.
That's my,
my goal.
So if we're going to,
you know,
140.
Yep.
So.
2140.
As the last date.
I don't know if you can even go that long.
So you have to go click on model.
Nice.
It's just going to be way better.
If we do the tutorial,
man.
Okay.
But this is,
this is,
this is good.
And then you have to increase the Epoch count to like 30 or something.
Didn't even get to 30.
Yeah,
it does.
We do get there.
Okay.
So yeah,
you got to increase the Epoch count to 30.
Got it.
Oh yeah.
Perfect.
Puts us to 140 years or 20,
2140.
And then there you can see it is.
Yeah.
Cause this assumes then at that point in time.
I died.
What dates did you die?
Yeah.
2063.
So I died in 2064.
Yeah.
Cause if I died,
I'm not going to be spending any more Bitcoin.
So that makes sense.
So if I got to see where you were user testing,
we're testing for the fringe user.
That's going to break my,
break my system.
Okay.
If I lived until the last block,
I would still theoretically have 1.61 Bitcoin left.
Let's see.
6.15.
Yeah.
I have 1.625 left.
So I would argue.
Hoddle's right.
6.125 is,
is the perfect amount of Bitcoin because you literally will have Bitcoin or
your family should have Bitcoin up until the point when the last block is
mined.
And we just get into the fee subsidy area or the fee fee on the era.
And this is also keep in mind,
you'll see how it's like a S shaped drawdown.
Yep.
That's because the 8% inflation is at a hundred years from now,
8% inflation.
Like you're talking about the whatever that is.
Yeah.
A hundred years from now is a hundred or whatever.
Yeah.
One Bitcoin is worth $5 trillion or $13 trillion.
It's just,
yeah.
$10 trillion.
Yeah.
But you see that the escape,
the S shape,
because the inflation at 8% inflation that outstrips Bitcoin's logarithmic growth,
which is,
we're using the power law model here.
So exponential growth outstrips logarithmic growth on a long enough timeline.
Consequently,
the,
you know,
in the middle,
it starts to get flat.
Like,
oh yeah,
we're going to survive this.
But then inflation catches up and it just like takes it.
Oh,
interesting.
Okay.
So let's,
let's actually just tweak this though to be more,
more correct.
So if we're going to do,
you know,
the number of epochs that's for like a normal human.
So 10 is where you had it before.
Let's even just do,
you know,
let's do,
you know,
64 years.
Let's do 16 epochs.
Um,
so power law,
is that the one that plan B popularized?
Uh,
no,
I think plan B is talk to flow.
So power law is the,
I forget the guy's name.
The guy markets himself,
styles himself a mathematician.
So we have power law,
power law support,
which is just,
it's just another power law.
Um,
rainbow chart,
which is the famous rainbow chart.
And then Kager stock to flow rate fit and stock to flow and historic.
So historic is just taking the highs and the lows of every Bitcoin,
uh,
of actual ever of every actual Bitcoin recorded price,
just applying that to the,
um,
uh,
the having where,
where it happened in the having,
Oh,
interesting.
So let's actually look at that one for a second.
Cause I'm actually very curious to do this one.
Let me actually move this to less obnoxious.
So let's do 21 or 20,
2100.
Sure.
Okay.
Why is this crazy?
Cause this,
this looks like Weimar in my opinion,
like this is like Weimar level inflation when you're just doing historic.
Yeah.
So,
but you can see,
you look at the historic,
like the first 15 years of Bitcoin,
it's,
it's like rounding out.
So the reason this graph looks like this is because it's just applying,
well,
year one or epoch one,
it was like,
whatever,
200 category or whatever.
Right.
Yeah.
And then it's just like adding that to,
you know,
indefinitely.
Cause that would be the top of the channel.
And then it's taking like year or,
uh,
epoch or current epoch.
Okay.
Forward.
Um,
and it's just making that the bottom of the channel.
So the consequences there is that the top of the chip,
the top of the channel is at 200 category and the bottom is whatever,
30 category.
Got it.
Got it.
Got it.
So yeah,
like the top of this channel or the bottom of this channel is million,
billion,
trillion,
zillion,
one past zillion,
whatever that is.
And then the top of this channel is,
I don't even know.
Yeah.
It's,
it's honestly,
it like,
it just completely breaks down.
It makes no sense to use it.
Um,
unless you just want to use,
so it's presently set to,
if you do,
um,
historic and you have it at two,
like it can be interesting when you bring it down to like,
uh,
worry too.
When we get to more,
when we get to more,
um,
epochs,
then it's going to be more interesting because you'll start to see like,
oh,
okay.
At this point in the channel,
at this point in the having cycle,
like the price is higher or the price is lower.
Right.
You actually,
you actually be able to see the channel as it,
as it builds throughout.
Got it.
Got it.
80 years.
So let's just assume that I do have this 6.125 though.
And I'm just,
or actually let's assume there's somebody who's just starting now and you
have one Bitcoin.
Let's even just do that.
All right.
Now let's finish the,
let's finish the huddle example.
Next one,
one,
two,
five,
not 16,
six,
oh,
come on.
Okay.
There we go.
Um,
and let's get this into like a stock to flow type situation.
What's the refit by the way?
2024 refit.
Like they just kind of read it.
They just redid it for 2024.
Got it.
Come on,
zoom out.
Don't go,
don't go bananas on me.
Okay.
Um,
this all makes sense,
but what,
what are the different like walk strategies?
So these are the,
um,
yeah.
So,
as you're talking about before with it,
the ergodicity.
So when you're shaking the box and then like,
if you're shaking a box,
but like,
you can't like,
it just doesn't,
you put padding on one side of the box and like slowly it's away the padding,
but it's like going crazy.
And the other side of the box,
that's basically what the walk strategy is.
Um,
now there's,
there's a thousand different ways you can do that,
but essentially if you,
you can actually see all the walk strategies,
the best by setting the volatility to zero.
So when you set the volatility to zero,
you actually see the pattern,
like the walk pattern.
If there's no volatility,
you're not like actually shaking the box.
And it's,
it's very ugly on stock to flow because the,
the ups in or because of the nature of the channel.
Um,
so it's better to just do it on like,
um,
not stock to flow anything to stock and not historically.
Yeah.
So yeah,
there you go.
So sign pattern goes up like just like a sign wave,
um,
three red or three green,
one red,
you know,
three years up,
one year down,
three years up,
one year down.
Yeah.
Interesting.
Yeah,
it's cool.
It's,
it's a lot of information I think for like for myself or probably for most
people to digest,
but like,
let's say,
you know,
what,
what would you say if you had the huddles perfect amount of Bitcoin,
what would be the most realistic based on your assumptions?
Like,
where would you build your model?
And I'm sure you have it in the tutorial,
but I'm just kind of curious,
like,
what,
what would you build?
And like,
what would you,
I mean,
so at 6.125 Bitcoin,
like just look at live off Bitcoin annual amount,
a hundred thousand,
and then just set it to today and see if.
Would you do power law or would you do cigar?
Which of the,
models would you use?
Oh,
that's just,
what's your,
what's your favorite model parallel?
Okay.
And the support line or regression?
Uh,
it doesn't matter.
Okay.
Both are essentially the same.
Got it.
Volatility one or volatility?
No.
Yeah.
Volatility.
Yeah.
Volatility one.
Sorry.
Okay.
So volatility one.
Um,
okay.
So volatility one and then effective date today to save.
Boom.
All right.
Oh,
you got,
uh,
what are your settings?
I mean,
it's crazy.
So my settings are a walk,
strange momentum bubble.
And so it's,
it's power law,
regression,
median bubble,
volatility,
one,
16 epochs and sample count is a thousand.
All right.
Why is it so crazy?
I don't know,
man.
I broke it.
I broke it.
6.125.
Let's go see.
Let's see.
We're right here.
So,
um,
active a hundred thousand expenses.
Effective date is today and day optional.
So all of these assume it's super.
This is like,
not even,
not even,
uh,
readable.
I just refresh.
Maybe there's something wrong.
Maybe there's a bug in there.
Let's refresh.
Let's see if it'll let me refresh the page.
Nice.
Okay.
So then,
yeah,
let's reset to 6.15.
I mean,
this is the setting that I like,
just keep it at the default setting because it's,
I put it at the default.
Cause this would be the one that like makes the most sense to me.
And then I can just,
I don't have to worry about setting the model.
Got it.
Got it.
Um,
but yeah,
reset the dates to today.
Okay.
So come on here.
Live off of Bitcoin starting today.
Safe.
Boom.
Okay.
There we go.
Okay.
So what this essentially means is if you just started drawing down and you were paying,
and it's a hundred thousand dollars a year,
right?
Yeah.
Um,
theoretically this says you should get to 2064 with 0.3 Bitcoin.
Yeah.
Got it.
Yep.
But that's again,
on average.
And then if you look at the top of the,
the chart,
you're the highest,
like it basically tracks.
Uh,
yeah,
basically tracks the price and then draws down according to whatever the price is.
When you do that sale on that day for a thousand samples.
And so on some of those samples and the price,
the price itself will be like way higher.
And so when you're selling it,
a hundred thousand dollars worth adjusted for inflation,
you are selling way less Bitcoin.
And so you have this range that develops.
And at the top of that range,
you have the maximum of 1.7 Bitcoin left at the bottom,
the minimum of that range,
you will run out of Bitcoin in 2047,
as opposed to it lasting for the duration until 2061.
Got it.
Got it.
Got it.
That makes sense.
So it would be interesting as a,
from a user perspective.
Um,
if some of those stats were like over here in my drawdown category,
and actually it would even be curious,
what's this guy?
So this is like,
so you can add a drawdown event.
Okay.
Interesting.
Um,
so I have to like pay off my house or pay off a car or something like that.
Yeah.
Any amount of events.
And there's different types of events too in the type start type.
Yeah.
This is like the Bloomberg of,
uh,
Bitcoin calculators.
There's a lot of great insight in here,
but I feel like my mom would look at this and decide it's more valuable to go
watch more soap operas,
which is funny.
Um,
cool.
Yeah.
So stack math jump in here and run through the tutorial,
do the proper thing.
Oh,
look at that.
It's actually even just running you through the whole thing.
So that's cool.
Um,
it shows me,
it shows me how to not be completely regarded.
It's a full tutorial about every,
like everything that it can do.
I mean,
in fact,
this,
this last part,
just,
yeah,
don't do the tutorial anymore.
Just like stick on this.
This one is super,
I think important.
Um,
change the inflation down to two.
Let's do two.
Yeah.
Okay.
So you're looking at this,
what this is telling you,
right?
This is telling you that you are starting with zero Bitcoin today.
You have zero Bitcoin.
And for the next,
whatever that is,
20 years of work or 30 years of work,
you're going to be saving.
Um,
cause I can't read.
The next 20 years of work,
you are saving $5,000 of Bitcoin per year.
Right.
And then for a 30 years work,
and then you are spending down $185,000 with Bitcoin in retirement.
So you're caught your,
and that's adjusted for inflation.
Assuming with inflation.
So now,
again,
we set that to,
uh,
two.
Inflation.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So I said inflation for two.
This is the feds,
the feds target inflation,
right?
At the,
the day you retire,
you have,
you have accumulated 0.196 Bitcoin.
And it's worth,
um,
10 million bucks.
Yeah.
Something like that.
Uh,
let's see.
Um,
on that day,
it would be worth two.
Yeah.
Two or $3 million.
Um,
and then you,
you're spending it down as,
as you age into retirement.
Right now,
of course you're the,
the amount of like spend per year and retirements can be different.
When you first retire,
you're super active and you're wanting to travel and your cost of living is high.
Then at some point,
it,
you know,
your old age catches up with you and you're just kind of surviving.
And so your cost of like your lifestyle is,
you know,
not as much.
And then your lifestyle increases when medical costs really catch up to you.
And it's just like the whole explosion and spending because you want to stay
alive for longer.
Yeah.
Now,
so you don't have this flat,
like this even spend,
but that's beside the point.
Talk to a financial advisor.
Um,
the point that I want to nail nail home here is that the feds target is
2% inflation.
You can survive on 2% inflation.
According to this,
from the day you retire,
you'll be set,
right?
Change it to 3% inflation.
And as we already saw changes to 4% inflation,
change it to 8% inflation,
which is probably more in line because of the money supply.
Now with 8% inflation,
your retirement is completely wrecked.
If you want to have a hundred and $80,000 a year lifestyle.
So it is,
it's explicitly inflation,
which steals lives and completely just like years of lives and,
and,
uh,
destroys the world.
Essentially.
Yeah.
It was just completely guts.
People's like all the work they did their entire life.
Hmm.
Yeah.
I think what's interesting on something like this is actually,
um,
you know,
the,
the,
I would be very curious if you could feed something like this into like a
Grock or a Claude or a GPT and have it kind of crafted a story.
It's like,
can this write a baby mandibles that's like positive or a baby mandibles that's
not positive,
um,
to kind of give you a full picture of what's actually going on and help people
understand what they're looking at.
Because I,
having you break it down for me like that as I'm like,
Oh,
like it,
it totally makes it.
And this right here is honestly scary.
Like it's a scary,
um,
this is a scary chart for someone who has not started stacking.
That's,
that's the,
that's the,
that's the truth here.
And I,
and I do think this is most people,
right.
And I think,
you know,
we've talked,
it's basically everybody.
And we've talked offline of,
and part of the impetus about,
you know,
the name behind what we're,
what we're doing right now is Bitcoin is the rising tide.
Bitcoin is a rising tide.
And there's going to be a need for Bitcoiners who have a lot of Bitcoin to start
paving the way for what people should be spending their money on.
And I,
and I believe Bitcoiners are going to build cathedrals again.
You know,
we're going to get back to a point where,
you know,
like St.
Peter's Basilica in London is going to become a thing again.
Like there's going to be a reason for people to want to rebuild,
you know,
a new version of the Vatican in the United States somewhere.
There's going to be a reason for people to value their,
their time and value their work and value their effort when it's no longer stole
from them.
And so I think that's,
that's an interesting thing to codify as a story because most people don't get
it because they've been born.
Yeah.
Who,
who,
even boomers,
right?
Boomers were the generation that were born when the U.S.
government broke money.
Yep.
We became,
you know,
this,
this last generation.
They came to age.
They,
they entered the workforce when the U.S.
government broke money.
Got it.
Yeah.
So they,
so they everything.
Yeah.
They basically had childhood.
Everything was great and gravy and then work.
And then we just,
the only way to survive is you have to have a house.
If you don't have a house,
you're wrecked.
Your life is over.
Yep.
Yeah.
There's,
there,
we have some people we know in Italy and it's like,
you know,
unemployment for young people.
There's like 30%,
40% like real,
real unemployment.
And the idea of owning a house is not even an idea that they entertain because
the house you're going to own is your parents' house.
You're going to inherit it when they die.
And so you're going to live there until you're 50 unless you can find somebody
else and have a,
have a job.
So you need to find two people who have jobs to be able to even think about
moving somewhere.
But most of the time,
you're probably not gonna want to move anywhere because it's like you can't
even afford childcare.
And so,
you know,
why would you move?
Yeah,
it's just wild.
It's super wild.
I'm hopeful because Bitcoin is in the world,
but the,
you know,
I know a lot of Bitcoiners say Bitcoin has won,
but it's like,
there's just so much that has to go right for this tax.
So much has to change.
One of the things that's,
I think important about the graph you're looking at is that 5,000 is not just
arbitrary.
I mean,
it's kind of arbitrary,
but it's like,
it's essentially your maximum contribution for an IRA every year.
And if that goes,
if that's going straight into Bitcoin,
like that's what you're,
that's it.
Right.
Obviously you can,
you can say Bitcoin outside of an IRA,
but like,
that's it.
Like,
that's,
that's what you get.
Unless the system changes,
unless we do exactly what you're saying.
Unless we start actually fixing the problems,
which are tremendous and huge and everywhere.
Hmm.
Yeah.
And in this,
but in this scenario,
you never.
Oh,
and then the 5,000,
it's actually interesting.
So the,
the 5,000 is inflation adjusted.
So if you click on it,
so that'd be like,
whatever it,
if it doubles every 10 years,
you'd be contributing 10,000 in 10 years.
So to account for that,
so click on it.
And it's a,
it says annual percentage change,
lower it by the inflationary.
Okay.
Hmm.
So you have your less.
Yeah.
So the top is.
Oh,
no,
wait,
you're,
you're increasing it.
You need to lower it.
So negative eight.
Oh,
negative eight.
There we go.
So that's,
that's more in line with actual,
your actual IRA contributions,
because that number in the IRA,
that $5,000,
like that's never going to change unless they change the law,
which means that the purchasing power of that,
it's just going to continue to decrease.
It's just the exact same thing with like when they added the.
Qualified distribution for home.
You're able to take out $10,000 to put a down payment on a home,
which is like an appropriate amount.
The year was added,
but I recently went back and did the math on it.
And it should be inflation adjusted today,
somewhere around $30,000,
which would be an appropriate amount for a,
you know,
average home in America,
$400,000 home.
Right.
It's like,
okay,
cool.
You can withdraw through like $30,000.
That's 10,
almost 10% down.
You can probably scrounge together some more.
Elsewhere.
But like,
no,
no,
no,
no,
no,
no.
The law hasn't changed.
Inflation has picked up and destroyed all of it.
So you still today can only withdraw $10,000 for a qualified distribution to
towards the house.
It's just like,
you can't.
Like at no point,
will that ever like,
unless they inflation adjust it.
And the only inflation adjusted to like official inflation rate.
One.
Right.
And it's just like,
there's no,
it doesn't like,
as time goes on,
it becomes increasingly meaningless.
Like the whole system just breaks itself because of inflation.
So you could,
you could escape.
If.
You know,
your annual is 2%.
And 2% is actually the number.
So if,
if the fed weren't lying,
you could get there,
but because of the reality that we all know that average real inflation is
closer to 8%,
it's very unlikely.
Yeah.
It's wild.
That's wild,
man.
Well,
this is really cool.
I really love the,
the fact that I have something that I can try to look at now.
I might shoot you some thoughts on,
you know,
things like clicking in or locking or making it easier for me to,
to see,
excuse me,
to see things as a user,
but that's something that we can offline on.
But if anybody watching has any thoughts for,
for bond or,
and they want to jump in there,
I think,
I know he'd love to,
he'd love to hear them,
but it is really cool to,
it's cool to have all of this information by fingertips.
It's probably a little more than most people need,
but at the same time,
like you don't know what you don't know.
So it's actually great to kind of have everything to kind of like,
look at it and get a greater understanding of it.
And then also be able to be like,
Hey,
for my kids and my kids,
kids and,
and all that stuff.
So it's,
this is super,
this is super cool.
Is there,
why did you,
why did you make this?
I mean,
the practical reality of it was that,
you know,
we were like going through the process of like,
okay,
what's our job situation?
What's the,
you know,
like how long can we afford to,
you know,
apply for jobs,
but not get a job.
And like being a developer,
I don't know if you've ever seen that or seen the recent,
like stats on it.
It was like 2022 developer jobs are the most in demand jobs.
2024 developer jobs are the least in demand jobs.
So basically,
you know,
this was,
was made for the purpose of like trying to answer the question,
like,
okay,
how long can we like live on this given like the,
the crazy volatility in Bitcoin,
given the price projections,
given our price models,
given our needs and our like,
like,
what are like,
how,
how are we going to live?
And like,
what are the,
like,
what are the consequences?
Like,
what are the opportunity costs and consequences of doing this?
And like,
what are the,
how does this all fit together?
What are all the pieces here?
So I made this tool to answer the question for myself,
like how much is enough?
Like,
do we have enough?
And like,
you know,
how,
how much time do we have?
So like,
okay,
now,
like you can see what the things are.
I can see our expenses.
I can see like,
okay,
cool.
This is what,
this is what our family does is how we can make it.
This is,
you know,
the lifestyle we can afford,
like the whole thing.
So yeah,
that's what I made it for me personally.
That's like the impetus,
but then,
you know,
you can,
like,
I threw it up and just like,
okay,
this is the only,
because with all financial planning,
it's all like,
all of it's so probabilistic and you never know when you're going to get hit by a car.
So you're predicting the future and it's just uncertainties on uncertainties.
And it's just,
there's no,
it's almost irrelevant.
Right.
At some point.
And so you can just like whip together a super easy version,
which I did in like a week and a half.
And I was like,
okay,
cool.
My questions are answered.
I don't need to look at this anymore.
But then it like started to,
you know,
whatever,
scratch and itch where I was like,
this is no,
you can do way more with this.
And if people understand it,
they go through the process of trying to learn what ergodicity is and what Monte Carlo's simulations are,
which we didn't even touch on.
And then like actually like putting together,
like putting these pieces together and thinking through this processing and the probabilities involved in the whole thing.
But then you can really start to like break apart the,
not necessarily break apart,
but like soften this diehard absurdity of always stacks at,
because you're not inhuman if you don't.
And it's like,
the thing that makes me human is the fact that I am connected to reality and have,
you know,
responsibilities and a family and rent to pay and like all these other factors that go in.
Like,
okay,
cool.
I'm not the only person in my life.
Like I'm responsible for other people.
Like,
how does,
how does all these pieces connect?
Because it can't just be stack stats,
like sell your wife,
sell your kids,
like sell all like,
and just,
this is,
that's not reality.
Like,
come on guys.
So that's what,
yeah.
And then it gives you,
you know,
gives people options and gives people insight about what they believe.
You know,
we're going to add all these settings because I wanted to make sure that people had a really clear,
because everyone's situation is totally different.
You can't just be like,
oh yeah,
6.15.
It always works.
It's like,
no,
it doesn't always work because your situation is going to be different than his situation.
Like if you have kids,
well then what's their schooling costs?
Like,
let's hope you don't send them to private school or public school.
Right.
Right.
So like,
are you going to do private school?
Are you going to do homeschool?
Like what are the costs for there?
Yeah.
I mean,
it's a whole process.
Like financial planning is a huge process.
It really takes a lot of effort and thought and contingencies to flush out.
This is cool.
This is a great tool to kind of help the layman try and get a better understanding of like what,
just what their Bitcoin future could look like.
It's,
it's hard,
though,
kind of knowing we have like a Bitcoin strategic reserve and we have all these things kind of like on the horizon to kind of like wrap your head around it.
But I'm optimistic that we can get,
you know,
get under a Bitcoin standard in some way,
shape or form.
But we'll see.
We'll see what we'll see.
We'll see what happens in the world.
Again,
check it out.
Send me feedback.
If you find bugs,
I'm also highly recommend do the tutorial.
We only touched on like a handful of stuff,
but the tutorial really walks through the whole point and purpose and connects all the dots and answers all the whatever.
What's it called?
Answers all the definitions and paints the full picture of what you can do and how to think about it.
love it.
Check it out.
Love it.
If you are in,
you know,
the greater L.A.
area,
you should try and hit up some meetups.
There's a couple of them everywhere.
We,
we do one every so often.
And so if people want to check out that one,
check out Nella Bitcoiners.
But then you should definitely check out BTC pins down in Hawthorne.
You should check out the check out meetups.
Great,
great place to find them.
Like,
I'm not just trying to plug them,
just plugging some things,
because I think the bigger piece in all of this is the world gets better with Bitcoin.
But in order to make Bitcoin a thing,
you need to actually be like with Bitcoin.
So if you have questions or you're curious about Bitcoin,
like,
go to a meetup,
you know,
go and go and meet some people in the meat space,
because Bitcoiners just love Bitcoin and they just want to talk about it.
So you probably have an easier time getting them to shut up about Bitcoin than you will,
you know,
getting them to or rather harder time getting to shut up about Bitcoin than you will to have them to shut up about it.
I love this stuff.
So,
cool.
Well,
that's that was the main thing I want to chat on today.
I just think stack math is great.
There's a lot of really positive,
like awesome.
Just like stuff and value on it.
And so if you know people have any questions,
shoot it over to Gilded Plebe.
And yeah,
do you have anything else for the rest of this week?
Bond or is that a good place to wrap it up?
You think?
Let's do it.
Cool.
everybody,
for watching and looking forward to seeing you next week.
Peace.
Thank you.