Australia's Closed Doors vs New Zealand's Race For Students

Australia's international education sector is heading for a decade of stagnation with growth projected at just 2% annually through 2030 - a dramatic fall from nearly 10% pre-pandemic growth. Conrad and Eden examine how Australia's increasingly restrictive policies are reshaping the global education landscape while New Zealand pursues an aggressive expansion strategy.

Key developments discussed:

Australia has introduced the world's most expensive student visa fees at $2,000 AUD starting July 2025, alongside stricter English requirements and enrollment caps. The impact has been severe - VET and ELICOS visas have dropped 50% year-over-year, and English language courses now represent just 30% of international students, down from 50%. The new Genuine Student Test (GST) creates assessment barriers that favor larger universities over smaller VET providers, while disproportionately restricting growth from South and Southeast Asian markets.

Meanwhile, Australian universities have fallen an average of 238 places in global employer reputation rankings over the past decade, creating a skills mismatch crisis as students increasingly prioritize career outcomes when choosing destinations.

New Zealand is taking the opposite approach, announcing plans to double sector revenue by 2034 with 35,000 additional students. They've expanded part-time work hours from 20 to 25 per week, introduced multi-year visas, and fast-tracked visa processing for Indian students. The results show - New Zealand's post-pandemic growth is averaging 11% compared to Australia's projected 2%.

Sources

1. https://thekoalanews.com/how-bad-are-the-quality-problems-in-the-international-vet-sector/
2. https://www.qs.com/reports-whitepapers/australia-new-zealand-global-student-flows/
3. https://www.applyboard.com/applyinsights-article/australias-caps-refocus-student-demand-toward-university-programs

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Speaker 1: 00:03

Welcome to The Brief. I'm your host, Conrad.

Speaker 2: 00:06

And I am Eden. And today, we're looking at a dramatic slowdown in Australia's growth projected at just 2% annually through 02/1930. That's down from nearly 10% pre pandemic.

Speaker 1: 00:18

So first up, Australia introduced some eye watering visa fees a couple of months ago.

Speaker 2: 00:24

We're now talking about the world's most expensive student visa fees, 2,000 Australian dollars since July 2025. This is yet another step in their increasingly restrictive approach, which also includes caps and stricter English requirements across the board.

Speaker 1: 00:40

But let's dive deeper into what's really happening with Australia's visa policies for a moment. The numbers are telling a stark story, particularly in the vocational and English sectors.

Speaker 2: 00:51

The data is brutal. Vocational and English visas have dropped 50% year over year. English language courses have fallen from 50% to just 30% of international students. Overall, Australia's requirements and policies, such as Ministerial Direction 111, are clearly favoring universities over vocational providers.

Speaker 1: 01:12

Exactly. And when you combine this with other factors, for example, Australia had a two thirty eight place drop in employer reputation, we're seeing an increasing trend of students to prioritizing other destinations. Students are becoming increasingly strategic about where they invest their education dollars. And here's the demographic reality, China and India are expected to dominate 46% of Australia's intake by 02/1930. So Australia is on a path to even more concentrated nationality mix and even more restrictive policies.

Speaker 1: 01:48

Well, after this barrage of difficult news, what's next?

Speaker 2: 01:54

Yes. Let's talk about New Zealand because while Australia's tightening the screws, New Zealand is doing something completely different. They've just announced this ambitious plan to double sector revenue by 2,034, with expanded work hours and multi year visas directly competing with Australia's restrictive stance. And the numbers are absolutely significant. They're targeting 35,000 additional students to achieve that goal.

Speaker 2: 02:22

But what's really interesting are the specific policy changes they're making. They've expanded part time work hours from twenty to twenty five hours per week for international students.

Speaker 1: 02:31

And they're introducing multi year visas for some cohorts, which is huge for student planning and certainty. Plus, and this is really strategic, they fast tracked visa processing specifically for Indian students, creating a direct pathway from study to residency.

Speaker 2: 02:48

The results are already showing. New Zealand's post pandemic growth has been averaging 11%. That's brought them to 60% of their 2019 levels. Compare that to Australia's projected 2% growth through 02/1930, and you can see why students and agents are taking notice.

Speaker 1: 03:05

What's smart about New Zealand's approach is their positioning. They're specifically targeting students from South Asia and Africa, markets that are feeling the squeeze from Australia's restrictions. They're focusing on three key markets and really emphasizing their welcoming environment.

Speaker 2: 03:20

It's really a tale of two strategies, isn't it? While Australia's raising fees, imposing caps, and making it harder to get visas, New Zealand is saying, come here, work more hours, get multi year visas, and we'll fast track your pathway to residency. It's almost like they're reading from opposite playbooks.

Speaker 1: 03:37

So, Eden, what's the biggest takeaway for education providers navigating these challenging times?

Speaker 2: 03:43

The strategy shift is clear, Conrad. Pivot it from volume to value if possible and absolutely diversify your destinations. Otherwise, you will feel the squeeze more than ever.

Speaker 1: 03:53

And that's The Brief. See you next episode of The Brief International Education Edition.