CropGPT - Sugar

The weekly report on the global Sugar market for week 36. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This episode provides a comprehensive update on the global sugar market for the week of September 7, 2025.
  • India is expected to increase sugar production by 19 percent year over year, reaching 35 million metric tons, driven by favorable monsoon conditions. The government is weighing the possibility of allowing 2 million metric tons of sugar exports in the upcoming season, reversing the previous year's restrictions. This shift is prompted by both a strong production outlook and efforts to balance domestic supply and demand.
  • Brazil continues to report robust production, with a 16 percent year-over-year increase noted in August by Unica. However, the overall forecast for the 2025–26 season shows a 4.7 percent decline to 22.9 million metric tons. The short-term rise is linked to a higher allocation of cane for sugar over ethanol, influenced by dry weather.
  • In the United States, a record sugar harvest is forecast, with output projected at 9.42 million short tons. This increase may reduce import needs and domestic prices, potentially challenging local producers' profitability. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s sugar sector is under pressure due to ineffective trade and supply policies. Production has fallen to 5.8 million metric tons, and regulatory inconsistencies have led to market disruptions.
  • Ukraine faces reduced sugar beet cultivation, constraining production, though it remains a key exporter navigating EU import quotas while managing its own supply needs.
  • Overall, the global sugar market is shaped by a complex mix of climatic, economic, and regulatory forces. Strong output in Brazil and India is applying downward pressure on prices, while trade policies and geopolitical factors contribute to ongoing market volatility.


What is CropGPT - Sugar?

Sugar news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global sugar market for 09/07/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. In India, sugar production is on the rise, with expectations of a 19% increase year on year due to favorable monsoon conditions, reaching 35,000,000 metric tons. The government is considering allowing the export of 2,000,000 metric tons in the coming season, a reversal from last year's restrictive policies, influenced by an optimistic production outlook and the need to balance domestic supply and demand. Moving to Brazil, robust production continues with a 16% year over year increase, recorded by Unica in the August.

Speaker 1:

However, the overall projection for the twenty twenty five-twenty six season indicates a slight decline of 4.7% year over year to 22,886,000 metric tons. This short term increase is attributed to a higher allocation of cane towards sugar, rather than ethanol, supported by dry weather conditions. In The United States, a record domestic sugar harvest is anticipated for the season, with forecasts setting the output at 9,420,000 short tons. This increase is likely to bolster supply levels, reduce the need for imports, and potentially drive down domestic prices, posing a challenge to local producers' profitability. Pakistan faces significant challenges in its sugar sector due to ineffective trade and supply policies.

Speaker 1:

With domestic production dropping to 5,800,000 metric tons, market disruptions have been notable. Controversy surrounding export decisions, compounded by inaccurate data and subsequent import challenges, highlights substantial regulatory and trade management issues. In Ukraine, the sugar beet cultivation area has been restricted, leading to reduced production projections. Despite these setbacks, Ukraine maintains its position as a significant global exporter, navigating European Union import quotas and focusing on maintaining export revenues while managing its domestic market under constrained conditions. Globally, the sugar market is shaped by high production levels in leading countries like Brazil and India, which pushes prices down, while geopolitical factors and international agreements add to market volatility.

Speaker 1:

Regional policies, climate conditions, and economic factors also deeply influence both operational and trade activities within the industry. Overall, the global sugar market is a complex interplay of policy decisions, environmental factors, and trade dynamics, all of which shape and influence local and international sugar prices and supply chains. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the sugar market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.