243: The Genius of Heat Pumps - Interview with Tom Sahagian

https://youtu.be/Sg2tUn6v1tI

Matt had an opportunity to talk to Tom Sahagian about retrofitting apartment buildings in NYC over to heat pumps. This was covered by Matt in his episode: https://undecidedmf.com/why-this-window-heat-pump-is-genius/

Tom works at the NYCHA, and teaches Analysis for Energy Efficiency at Columbia University's School of Professional Studies Master of Science in Sustainability Management.

He spoke to Matt about retrofitting older buildings with newer heat pump tech, why they landed on the model of heat pump they did, and why cities (not just NYC) are (and should) be looking at tech like this.

Watch the Undecided with Matt Ferrell episode, Why This Window Heat Pump Is Genius https://youtu.be/KNlDu_ZHIo8?list=PLnTSM-ORSgi7uzySCXq8VXhodHB5B5OiQ

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Matt Ferrell

Host of Undecided with Matt Ferrell, Still TBD, and Trek in Time podcasts

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Sean Ferrell

Co-host of Still TBD and Trek in Time Podcasts

What is Still To Be Determined?

Join Matt Ferrell from the YouTube Channel, Undecided, and his brother Sean Ferrell as they discuss electric vehicles, renewable energy, smart technologies, and how they impact our lives. Still TBD continues the conversation from the Undecided YouTube channel.

Hey everybody, welcome to Still to be Determined. This of course is the follow up podcast to Undecided with Matt Ferrell. I am not Matt Ferrell.

I'm Matt's older brother. I'm Sean Ferrell. I'm a writer. I write some sci fi. I write some stuff for kids and I'm just generally curious about technology. Luckily for me, my brother is that Matt of Undecided with Matt Ferrell, which takes a look at emerging tech and its impact on our lives and here on Still To Be Determined, we follow up on Matt's episodes.

Have a brief conversation about our previous episode and then follow up with your questions and comments on his most recent episode. But not this week. This week we have one of our deep dive interviews. This of course is when we share the full conversation between Matt and an expert in the field about a given subject.

This week, it was Matt's opportunity to talk to Tom Sahagian and Tom is involved in the project. We had a previous episode. This was Matt's episode, Why This Window Heat Pump is Genius. Link in the, in the, uh, episode description below, Tom is involved in retrofitting New York City apartments with new heat pump technology to address heating and cooling issues in New York City as a energy saving approach.

And Tom works for the New York City Housing Authority, and he teaches analysis for energy efficiency at Columbia University. And He spoke with Matt about retrofitting older buildings with a newer heat pump tech, why they landed on the model that they did. And people who remember the earlier episode, remember that the model is effectively the flip phone of heat pumps.

It's this transformer looking thing that kind of sits in your window looking to me, the most exciting part of it is that it starts to look like a droid from Star Wars. I love it. So, uh, so their conversation was about why they landed on that model of tech and why cities, not just New York City, but cities worldwide are approaching and should be approaching analysis of how to use technology like this to help with energy use in the city.

So on now to Matt's conversation with Tom.

Hi, Tom. Thanks so much for joining me. You and I have had a conversation before. And I was really excited to have you on the podcast because I've talked about heat pumps a lot on my YouTube channel and it always comes from the perspective of a homeowner doing a heat pump in their home and you have a unique experience with rolling out heat pumps in situations that I don't think many people have ever thought about or think about much.

Uh, could you kind of walk through who, first, who you are and like what your basic background is?

Okay. Thanks for having me. Um, so I've spent the last 40 years or so in the energy efficiency field. And most of that time I was involved in learning about how to make buildings more efficient, particularly multi family buildings, but also commercial, industrial, and so forth.

And most of my expertise was in areas other than heat pumps. But several years ago, I started to realize that if electrification was really going to take place and was going to be the Answer to reducing our greenhouse gases significantly, uh, that I had to start learning about those, so I, I just started doing that and, um, as you probably know, there's a lot of inertia amongst people wanting to try to address the whole climate change thing, especially if it involves spending money or making any kind of sacrifice or whatever. And there was a real paucity of hard information about heat pumps. How much did they cost to install? How well did they work? How much energy or greenhouse gases were they going to save? Uh, really there was no unbiased information about their, out there, and really even very little biased information.

So in order to try to fill that vacuum, uh, I joined up with a friend and was able to persuade a large HVAC manufacturer to subsidize a project where we would convert the existing steam heating system, oil fired steam heating system, to individual heat pumps in each apartment. The only way we were going to really be able to get any building to volunteer to do this is to basically have them pay very little for it.

Because the risk was just too great for any, any building, you know, co op board or whatever trying to make a decision about what to do. Oh, yeah, let's go spend X ty zillion dollars and oh, what if it doesn't work? What if it doesn't save energy? What happened? I guess that's sort of the answer to your question.

Yeah, yeah. It explains why you were interested in heat pump technology. Could you kind of walk through the process of, because you've gone through that process of kind of retrofitting a building. Can you walk through like what that was like and kind of like, I'm curious what challenges specifically you kind of ran into during doing that?

Well, the challenges were many and continuing. But overall, things have worked out pretty well. First, it was getting people to accept the idea. Um, as you probably know, there's a law in New York City called Local Law 97, which is compelling buildings above 25, 000 square feet to reduce their greenhouse gases 80 percent by the year 2050.

Most, the vast majority of buildings in New York City and elsewhere have fossil fuel heating systems. So one very likely way to reduce one's greenhouse gases considerably is to go from a fossil fuel heating system to an electric heating system, as long as the electrical grid is also greened in parallel with that effort, which in New York that's happening and it's happening in a lot of parts of the country as well.

Another big problem was that there was this myth out there that Heat pumps did not work in cold weather. This, this was a, um, a major roadblock. And it's true that in the old days, the, the older versions of heat pumps, uh, if you installed them North of the Mason Dixon line, very frequently, In the wintertime, your electric bills would be huge because the system would default into resistance electric heat mode, which is much less efficient.

And so that persisted in people's minds, even though for some time it's been possible for these heat pumps to operate in heat pump mode as low as minus 13 degrees Fahrenheit, which is much colder than we ever get here in New York and most other parts of the country. So those, those were the two things, first of all, just what are we doing with this thing?

And then is it really going to work or are we going to get soaked and going to regret it for the rest of our lives, you know,

right. So on that cold weather performance, like, I mean, you mentioned New York doesn't get that cold, like, so it easily can handle the New York city winters. How have the building that you retrofitted, how has it been working over the course of the winter?

It's worked fantastically well, um, far better than I expected, actually. We've been through four winters now, uh, and we have had absolutely no problems whatsoever. Uh, we never popped a breaker. Uh, we never had a complaint about a lack of heat. Not, not a single one.

That's interesting because in New York, it's like, I'm not sure how old the building was that you did, but New York City has some very old buildings.

It's been around for a while. And so I'm sure, I'm sure you may have run into issues with just. The age of the building, the electrical infrastructure in the building, were there anything around, was there anything around that that caused problems?

Sure. Well, any retrofit is always going to be more difficult than designing from scratch.

And so this building was no different. The building that ended up being part of the project is a 10 unit building, five story walk up. Um, and it's about a hundred years old or so. So it's a pretty typical. New York City building. And so when you're retrofitting what's called a, a multi split heat pump in a building like that, there's a lot of drilling through walls.

There's a lot of running electrical wires and refrigerant lines. There's just a lot of fairly disruptive construction activity that takes place over the course of installing systems like that.

Are there benefits, even with all those issues with retrofitting an older building, are there benefits over going to this heat pump versus A traditional like steam boiler system for the building, because my understanding is for a steam boiler system, the apartment building, like the apartments themselves are kind of working on the lowest common denominator for when you're heating in the winter, where for the system that you put in, you just mentioned multiple times, it's like, it's a multi, you know, system.

So like, I'm assuming each apartment has their own dial that can tune the heat to what they want it to be. Okay. And it's not the lowest common denominator. Is that the case?

Yeah. Well, you sound like you must have spent a few winters in New York because, um, practically every multifamily building in New York is overheated and the way people control the heat is to open their windows, you know, when it gets too hot, which as you can imagine is not very energy efficient.

It turns out that steam heat, in most cases, is very difficult to control on a room by room or an apartment by apartment basis. I mean, there are things like thermostatic radiator valves that can make things better, but, uh, in general, it's pretty difficult to fine tune the temperature that you want. as a resident with a steam system.

The steam system is going to be centralized and there's a network of pipes that goes to the apartments and then is connected to radiators in the rooms and it just turns out that it's very difficult to get the right amount of steam to flow to the right place at the right time. With these individual heat pumps in each apartment, not only could they control the apartment overall, but they could control each room.

So, for example, if they weren't going to be in their bedroom all day. They could reduce the energy use in that room and have the rest of the apartment at a temperature that they wanted. And the residents absolutely loved that. The, the sense of control and the actuality of control was a very big deal for the residents.

It's kind of near and dear to my heart because when I was in grad school in Boston, I lived in a building just like this where it was like I had to open the window up a little bit in the wintertime cause I could not get it cool enough. My brother lives in Brooklyn and one of the rooms in the apartment is directly above the boiler.

Oh yeah. And that room is like getting, it's like super heated in the winter, it's like a steam, like a steam lodge when you go in there and you have to crack a window or something because it gets so hot. Yeah. So I'm assuming that this is probably very popular with residents that they can really tune it to what they want.

Yeah. They are universally very happy with the system overall.

Yeah. That's awesome. So for energy efficiency, how do these, uh, heat pumps impact the overall efficiency of the building?

Pretty substantially because with a heat pump, with a boiler. You burn fossil fuel and you extract as much of the energy out of that fuel as you can, but you can't get any more than 100 percent of the fuel, and usually it's much, much less.

A heat pump doesn't create energy, it moves energy. Uh, it works pretty much exactly like the refrigerator in your house. Refrigerator in your house moves heat from the inside of the fridge outside to your kitchen. An air conditioner moves heat from the inside of your house to the outdoors. A heat pump can do two things.

It can move heat from indoors to out. But it can also move heat energy from outdoors to in, which is why it can serve both as a cooling unit and a heating unit. And because it's moving energy rather than creating energy, it can actually operate at the equivalent of more than 100 percent efficiency. Now we know the laws of thermodynamics say that you can't be more than 100 percent efficient, and that's true.

But because you're moving energy around, it is the equivalent of being more than a hundred percent efficient. Right. And the, the, uh, the units that we have in this particular project average about two and a half times a hundred percent efficient. Uh, it's called the COP Coefficient of performance, and over the course of the year, the average is about 2.5.

So if you compare that to a typical steam boiler system in the basement, which has an equivalent COP of about 0. 5, maybe 0. 6. You're talking four or five times as efficient in terms of energy use, which is, which is huge. It's huge.

There is kind of a touchy question I've got around, like you just mentioned, like the utility bill, like the electricity usage of the system.

Even though it's super efficient, like typically in apartments, sometimes heat is included in your rent bill, but by shifting this to electric, sometimes the tenant is paying their own electric bill, which means it's shifting the cost from the landlord directly onto the tenant. I mean, they're paying for it no matter what, to their rent, to their, you know, the rent.

Right now, it's more obvious that, oh, here's my electric bill. It's higher now than it was before, because I have electricity. Have you gotten feedback from tenants on like how they feel about that, or Do you have a sense as to like, what that looks like for a typical, uh, tenant?

Well, you've put your finger on a very important issue.

Yeah. Um, at this particular building, because it's a co op, um, at first people were kind of freaking out because their electric bills did go up. I mean, they used to pay, for the oil that was burned in the boiler, indirectly, through their monthly fees, and it was the same number every month, so they, they had no idea how much of it was going to fuel and how much it was going to something else, but when it comes in on your own electric bill, suddenly it, it, you know, it has a reality that it didn't have before.

I have to say, overall, Even though there was an initial shock, people didn't really mind very much. They seemed to have taken it in stride. But the thing is, because this building was a co op, they were organized differently from a rental building. And the issue of who was going to pay for the heat pump electricity If a rental building shifts over to heat pumps is one that's being kind of fought out right now in New York with strong opinions on both sides and I have no idea how it's going to play out.

My personal feeling is that it's very important for energy users of any kind to get feedback on how much they're using. And how much it's costing them. So when they get that price signal, they will say, Oh, maybe I should use less. Maybe I should turn this thing off when I'm not using it so that my monthly bill will be less.

And if you don't have that feedback loop, I think you have a situation where people just, You know, they pay a fixed amount every month, and they're going to use as much as they want, because they'd sort of be foolish not to, right? I'm getting this thing for a certain amount, I'm just going to use as much as I want.

So I'm a strong believer in that. But of course, there are a lot of housing advocates and so forth who feel very strongly that that's not how it should be done. And there are legal issues in New York as well. So. I'm not sure how that's going to play out, but it is a very, very important issue.

Kind of, you've mentioned how you put this kind of like centralized system, heat pump system into the building.

Are there any advances in heat pump technology that are kind of like exciting you or that you're interested in and for where this is evolving to for situations like this?

Yeah. Well, let me just sort of make a minor correction. So the heat pumps that we put in, it's central in the sense that it's central to a given apartment, but it's, it's decentralized relative to the central boiler.

Right. Yes. Okay. Um, in the course of doing this project, it became clear to me that there were a lot of disadvantages to what we were doing. Uh, it was disruptive to the residents. You had to drill holes in the walls to allow the refrigerant lines to go outside and so forth. Uh, there were a lot of little things here and there that I began to realize were, were not conducive to mass adoption of this technology.

And we really sort of need to adopt it a lot, you know, very quickly, you know, 2050 is right around the corner. So that kind of started the wheels turning in my mind and I came up with the idea of a heat pump that you could put in a window. Similar to a window AC, but a little different, which I'll talk about in a second.

And because I happen to work part time for the New York City Housing Authority, I brought that idea to my boss and he brought it to his boss. And the decision was made to, for NYCHA, New York City Housing Authority, to try to create a market for For a new product that didn't yet exist and so back I want to say two and a half years ago something like that.

We put out a request for proposals We got proposals from about six firms. We selected two of them And just this past month, we finished our first year of data gathering for these window heat pumps. And, um, the project has just been insanely successful. Several bumps in the road, of course, but the advantage of this window heat pump is that you don't have to cut any holes or drill any holes.

You can plug it into a regular electrical outlet, which the multi splits, you can't do that. They need, they need 208 volts. They can be installed with, um, Non skilled labor in a very short period of time. The amount of disruption to the apartment is practically nothing. Uh, the overall cost per apartment for having the heat pump capability is a fraction of what it would be if we were doing multi splits.

Um, and from the perspective of NYCHA, which has a super centralized heating system in most of its buildings, it'll have a, a, a, you know, a large heating plant You know, in the middle of the development, and then the tentacles of the steam lines will go out to each building, and if there's a failure in that central system, everybody loses their heat or their hot water.

And that's, you know, obviously really bad and not something that we want to have happen. If you have a heat pump, say, in each bedroom and your living room, one of them fails for some reason, first of all, no one else is affected except you, and secondly, you still have two or three others. that can, you know, heat the rest of your apartment.

And three, it's pretty easy to have somebody come in, take the failed one out, put a fresh one in, and fix the other one at one's more or less leisure. So, it solves a lot of problems at once, uh, in a, what I think is a fairly attractive way, uh, and um, we're now going into our second phase of operation where we're going to have an entire 48 unit building.

With heat pumps in every apartment, and we're going to have a heat pump water heater for the domestic hot water in the building. And if things go well with that, uh, the housing authority is going to be buying tens of thousands of these things, if not more in the future, because NYCHA needs to meet the requirements of local law 97, just like any other building over 25, 000 square feet.

You kind of to go to the money angle just for a split second. You mentioned in your it's cheaper than per unit than what you did in the first building. Would you say the first building even at the cost that you paid It was kind of worth the investment for the long term versus, because I guess what I'm getting at is it sounds like doing it that way still would make sense long term versus this which saves you even more money potentially.

Yeah. I mean. Um, there are advantages and disadvantages to every form of this technology and, you know, there's no silver bullet that's going to solve everything. There was still a worthwhile investment for this building because they're getting benefit a few years ahead of the curve, if these window heat pumps pan out, I mean, they didn't exist.

So there wasn't an option at the time. You know, they've cut their energy use for space heating about 60%. They've cut their greenhouse gases a similar amount. So if your target is to cut your greenhouse gases 80 percent by 2050, and in one fell swoop, You've cut it by 60%. That's a huge victory. Yeah. In addition, um, the comfort, the, the control, um, all of those things are advantages that the, the, the residents still like.

And I think that there are buildings that may not want to wait until the window heat pump is, is on the market. The one question that people had was, okay, suppose you save all this energy, but electricity is so much more expensive than gas or oil, aren't we going to be saddled with higher energy bills over all? And the answer to that question in this case was no. We actually, after r doing quite an extensive calculation, determined that the net cost for energy at this building actually went down slightly.

Uh, and that was when they were paying about 2. 42 a gallon for fuel oil. Uh, there was a period, uh, a year or two after we installed these units when they were paying like 5. 26 for fuel oil, because they're still using fuel oil for the domestic hot water. And if that price had been in effect, Previously, the energy cost savings would have been gigantic, so, yeah, is it going to pay back in two years?

No, I don't think so, um, but it, depending on the circumstances of any given building, it could pay back in five years or ten years, which is really, that's not bad.

Yeah. One of the things about the, the window heat pump units that you're talking about, which are those kind of like U-shaped saddle style units that you put in?

I know, like I made a video about those and a lot of the feedback was. Why are they so expensive compared to an air conditioner? Or why are they so expensive? It's just adding a reversing valve. I'm curious if you have any thoughts about, because we talked about some of the misconceptions around heat pumps.

It also seems there's a misconception about that, about why these are more expensive than like an air conditioner when it's just a quote reversing valve, which costs a couple bucks.

Yeah, well, so, you know, it's not just a reversing valve, there's a lot that goes into a heat pump in addition to what you already have inside a window air conditioner.

Uh, so that's number one. Number two, don't forget the quantities that these are being made in right now is minuscule. The, the window heat pump market, A given manufacturer is going to be manufacturing 10, 20, 30, 50 thousand, at a time. I don't know, 100, 000 at a time. It's become a commodity. Uh, and you can get, you know, a 5, 000 BTU window unit for like 250 bucks.

But when window ACs first came out, they were the, they were only the province of the wealthy. They were much more expensive in constant dollars then than they are now. And I, I firmly believe that once these things get manufactured in large quantities, that the price will drop. I mean, will it still be more expensive than a window unit?

Yeah, absolutely, because it's got a lot more in it. One of the key things that I think most folks don't realize is that one of the largest design issues was how to handle the condensate. The moisture that gets pulled out of the air when you're, you know, uh, cooling or heating. And, um, With a window AC, you know, it sticks outside and the excess condensate just drips out on somebody's head down on the street.

That's not really an option with these things, uh, and so there's a fairly, you know, I signed an NDA, I can't really talk directly about how it, how it works, but the condensate handling, uh, is, is, uh, Something that also adds to the cost. But I have to say, if, if let's say these things go for, I don't know, three grand a piece, which I think is on the high side, and you have four of them in your house, so that's 12, 000.

The, the heat pump project that we did with the multi splits was on the average about 22, 000 per apartment, and that was for only three rooms, having heat pump unit, you know, indoor units. Uh, and since there are also pretty substantial subsidies from the utilities and state energy authority, the overall cost is going to be a fraction.

If you put in, you know, If you put in multi splits or this kind, I think you'll, you'll get a subsidy. The overall cost will be so much less because you're spending so much less up front. Not to mention, you know, just plug it right in. There's no electrical work, there's no plumbing work, uh, there's very little disruption to the installation and so forth.

Just from my understanding, there was a lot of research and development that went into those units. Like you mentioned, the way they have to handle the condensate is very unique to them. So it's, there's new stuff in there, new technologies, uh, heat pumps also have to do defrost cycles and things like that, which air conditioners don't.

So there's additional things in them that add complexity, circuitry. I forgot about that. Yeah.

Yeah. That, I mean, yeah. Window AC does not have to worry about defrost cycle in the wintertime.

And as I agree too, as it gets to scale, it's going to definitely come down in cost because these are being done in small runs right now.

And so as they get widely manufactured, they'll get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. Do you see, like, Okay, so you did the, the two different, you've had experience with the two different styles here of retrofitting a building and seeing what the results actually are. Are you aware of any interest from other cities that have seen this, these pilot projects and things being done in New York that are interested saying, Hey, we think we might want to do this too?

Are there, do you know of that? If there's any out there that are trying to go, well, I do

actually, because when NYCHA was putting the RFP together. Uh, we wanted to make it as attractive to applicants as possible.

Mm hmm.

And so we actually got letters of support from a variety of, um, public housing agencies throughout the country.

who basically said, yeah, if you make these and they work, we're really interested in getting these. And there's also been expression of interest, uh, in, in, uh, market rate housing. Also, uh, one of the companies that makes, uh, the, the units that we're testing, a company called Mydea, they've been displaying their unit at various, you know, trade shows and stuff.

And I asked them, you know, what do people look at or what's their attitude toward it? They said, People are really interested in it. They think that it could be a really useful solution to the problem that they have. And like I say, it's not going to be for every building, but I think there are many buildings that are going to say, you know, this is the way we want to do it.

One of the final questions I do have for you is, What advice would you give to other landlords or other building owners that are considering a transition to heat pumps? What advice would you give them?

Yeah, that's a really good question. And people ask me that all the time. And I basically say to them, okay, if your building is affected by local law 97, so that you have to make some kind of change.

First of all, don't freak out. A lot of people are freaking out, and they don't need to freak out. The first thing I would suggest that they do is do a lot of air sealing in their building. Air sealing, insulation, stuff like that. Things that they've probably been ignoring over the years. Very basic stuff that's not expensive.

And at the same time, start up a capital fund for whatever it is you're gonna end up spending on your building to comply with the local law. And then I would say, you know, wait a couple years to see what happens with these window units, because if you can then have a choice between that and Multi splits or mini splits or VRF or whatever, you just have more options that you can consider.

I would not rush into it. I don't know if you read the trade press, but it's all over the trade press that there's a giant shortage of qualified HVAC installers. And my experience with this project and others is that, yeah, sometimes you can't even get these heat pump installers to bid because they're so busy that they don't even bother to bid on your project, or they give you a price that's insane, uh, and just hope that you fall for it.

It's really crucial that the industry Ramp up in terms of qualified installers, uh, if people are going to opt for the multi split and the mini split. With the window unit, you're still, you know, you're still going to need somebody who has a clear idea of what they need to do to install it. But they don't have to be a trained electrician or a trained plumber or something like that.

And so there's many more people in that category than there are plumbers, electricians, and so forth. Um, but I guess the first thing I would say to people is don't panic. Uh, start to put a plan together. Start to put some money away. And give it a couple years to see how it all falls out and then act thereafter.

That's a great piece of advice. Is there anything else we haven't touched on that you'd want to touch on?

You know, just recently, right, we've had these two really bad hurricanes down south and the scientific consensus is that it's a result of global warming, uh, and that this is going to continue. And so more and more people are going to be affected by the global rise in temperature if we don't do something to reverse the process.

And there's also the issue of the ocean level rising as well. I mean, this is something that is a big deal, especially for people in lower Manhattan, uh, and, you know, other, other coastal areas all over the country and all over the world. And so I, I would just say, you know, to your listeners, uh, you have to not only consider

what's happening globally but also locally and you should be willing to do your share to help the rest of the people on the planet, you know, not experience these horrific conditions. So sit down, try to figure out what you can do, start a fund to save money so you can do something about it, you know, that's not just, uh, you know, virtue signaling or something.

Let's do this together to help each other out.

I like that sentiment a lot. Well, Tom, thank you so much for taking the time to talk to me again. Um, it's great catching up and I love your perspective on this. So thanks so much.

Well, thank you, Matt. This has really been a lot of fun and I hope it's great for your, your audience.

So thanks to Tom Sahagian for taking the time to talk to Matt and now viewers and listeners. What do you think about this conversation? Do you think there was anything that came up that caught your ear? Maybe something that wasn't in Matt's Video in which he shared the, the more condensed version of the conversation.

Was there something in this long form conversation that you think stood out that you would like to flag for other viewers and listeners, jump into the comments, let us know, and as usual, your comments will be feeding a future episode of this podcast. So come back to see how we pick up the conversation there.

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