Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for March 15, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
Friday, we collected 57 events,
including South Korea's ongoing
consideration of an independent nuclear
capability, so let's get started.
"South Korea
South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho
Tae-yul has hinted that the country
may consider developing its own nuclear
weapons, referred to as a ""plan B"", due
to uncertainty in the security landscape
under the new Trump administration.
This suggestion comes despite Seoul's
recent commitment not to develop nuclear
weapons under the Biden administration.
A majority of South Koreans support the
idea of an independent nuclear arsenal,
but the debate is sharply politicized,
with the ruling conservative party in
favor and the opposition largely opposed."
"Afghanistan
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry issued
a stern warning that the Torkham
border crossing will remain closed
until the Taliban cease construction
of new facilities along the border.
The move escalates the ongoing
tensions over this critical trade
route between the two countries.
The Ministry issued a statement indicating
that the 22-day closure of the border
crossing was a direct consequence of
Taliban efforts to construct security
posts within Pakistani territory.
Islamabad has reiterated its desire
to reopen the crossing but has
firmly stated that it will not permit
Afghan authorities to undertake any
construction activities on Pakistani soil.
The Taliban insisted that the
structures were being built
within Afghanistan's borders."
"China
Following talks on Iran's nuclear program
in Beijing on Friday, China, Iran,
and Russia called for diplomacy over
""pressure and threats"" and an end to
""all illegal unilateral sanctions,""
according to Chinese state media.
The meeting, attended by the deputy
foreign ministers of the three
countries, comes as Beijing positions
itself as a power broker on this
pressing international security issue.
The talks follow U.S.
President Donald Trump's recent statement
that there are two ways to handle Iran:
through a deal or ""militarily."""
"Gaza Strip
Hamas has announced that it will release
US-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander, a
soldier taken captive on October 7 near
the Gaza Strip, as well as the bodies
of four other slain dual nationals.
The terror group has agreed to initiate
negotiations to reach a comprehensive
agreement but has also called for Israel
to fully implement its obligations."
"Gaza Strip
Hamas is demanding that Israeli
troops withdraw from the Philadelphi
Corridor, a strip of land along
the Gaza-Egypt border, as part of
the next phase of the ceasefire.
Hamas accuses Israel of breaching the
terms of the agreement by maintaining
control of the corridor, which Israel says
is needed to prevent weapons smuggling."
"India
The Uttar Pradesh Anti-Terrorist Squad
(ATS) arrested Ravindra Kumar, an ordnance
factory worker in Hazratpur, Forozabad,
on espionage charges for allegedly
passing classified defense-related data
to a Pakistani intelligence handler.
The individual reportedly passed sensitive
defense-related documents to a woman
named âNeha Sharma,â believed to be an
operative of Pakistani intelligence."
"Iran
The US has imposed new sanctions on Iran's
Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad, as well as
three entities and three shipping vessels
involved in the country's oil trade.
Iran's Foreign Ministry has condemned the
move as ""hypocrisy"" and ""hostility to
development,"" citing the US's previous
calls for nuclear talks with Tehran."
"Iran
According to ship-tracking websites,
a second Iranian cargo ship, the
Jairan, departed from China on
Monday with a significant cargo load.
The vessel is suspected of carrying
1,000 metric tons of sodium
perchlorate, a chemical used to make
missile fuel, from China to Iran.
On February 13, another Iranian
cargo ship arrived at the Iranian
port of Bandar Abbas after a
19-day journey from eastern China.
During the trip, the ship stopped at the
Zhuhai Gaolan port in southern China and
delivered an unspecified cargo to Iran."
"Myanmar
Wednesday, the junta forces detained
four Arakanese traders in Padan
Township, Magway Region, alleging
connections to the Arakan Army (AA).
The arrests occurred while the military
unit of the junta was withdrawing
following skirmishes close to the
village on the night of March 12."
"Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin has
called on Ukrainian troops fighting
in the Kursk region to surrender,
following a request from US President
Donald Trump to ""spare"" their lives.
Putin guaranteed that if they lay down
their arms and surrender, they would
be treated with dignity and respect.
However, the Ukrainian army has dismissed
claims that they are surrounded by
Russian troops, stating that there
is no threat of encirclement."
"South Sudan
There are fears of potential clashes
between the South Sudan People's
Defence Forces (SSPDF) and local
armed youth, known as the White
Army, in Doma Payam, Ulang County.
The armed groups reportedly are in
close proximity, escalating concerns
of an imminent armed confrontation.
The executive director of Ulang County
stated that while fighting has not
yet broken out, the distance between
the SSPDF and the White Army is less
than three kilometers, with both
sides preparing for possible combat."
"Turkey
Turkish police arrested five individuals
on accusations of spying for Iran.
Police detained the individuals
during simultaneous raids in Ä°stanbul,
Antalya, and Mersin following a
joint investigation by the National
Intelligence Organization and the
Ä°stanbul Chief Public Prosecutorâs Office.
The suspects reportedly gathered
intelligence on military bases and
critical locations in Turkey and
abroad and relayed the information
to the Iranian intelligence service."
"India
On Thursday, police raided a Maoist
arms dump in the village of Jhimirekir,
Tonto district, seizing a pistol with
a magazine, seven explosives, five
electronic detonators, 250 detonators,
10 car remotes, seven plastic containers
with explosives, 35 steel tiffin
boxes and a bundle of cordex wire."
"Syria
The Internal Security Forces in
Syria have seized a truck carrying
weapons and ammunition, which was
originally from a Hezbollah warehouse
in western Homs countryside.
The driver and one escort
escaped, but another was arrested.
The shipment had been stolen by
former regime forces members and is
believed to be part of a larger arms
smuggling operation between regime
remnants and Hezbollah militiamen."
"Brazil
One of two bombs planted by two
""political terrorists"" exploded
at a busy bus station in São Paulo,
Brazil, on Wednesday morning.
The bomb blast sent a stack
of pamphlets that were packed
with the bomb into the air.
The second bomb was found in
another part of the terminal an
hour after the first explosion.
No one was injured in the attack.
A manhunt for the two
suspects was underway."
"Cameroon
On Friday, an ambush by the Ambazonia
State Army (ASA) insurgents in Mbiame, Bui
Division, Cameroon, on a joint patrol unit
resulted in the death of one Cameroonian
soldier, marking another violent episode
in the protracted Anglophone crisis."
"Ethiopia
A dissident faction of the Tigray
People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has
seized control of key offices and a
radio station in Mekelle, the regional
capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region.
This comes amid growing tensions
and fears of a return to civil war."
"India
On Thursday, a joint team comprising CRPF
and Jharkhand Police detected two Maoist
IEDs in Diku Ponga village and defused
them with the help of a bomb squad."
"India
On Thursday, security forces
apprehended a suspected member of
the United National Liberation Front
(UNLF) (Kangleipak) in Tengnoupal.
The apprehension is a significant
development in the region, where
the UNLF (K) is known to be active."
"Niger
An attack on an oil pipeline in
Niger's Dosso region has raised
concerns about the security of
the trans-Saharan gas pipeline.
The incident, the tenth this year,
has disrupted Niger's energy supply
and put the ambitious Trans-Saharan
Gas Pipeline project at risk."
"Pakistan
On Friday, a suspected suicide
bomb blast occurred during Friday
prayer at a mosque in Azam Warsak
Bazaar, South Waziristan Lower.
The explosion injured a local
Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam (JUI) political party
leader, two children, and another person.
No group has claimed
responsibility for the attack."
"Thailand
On Friday, an IED planted near a
utility pole on a road in Tambon
Maungtia, Mae Lan district, exploded,
injuring nine police officers.
The police officers were
providing security for teachers
and students on their way to
school at the time of the blast."
"West Bank
Dozens of settlers have invaded the
Palestinian village of Khirbet al
Marajim in the central West Bank,
setting several homes on fire.
The village is near Duma, where a
deadly firebombing in 2015 killed an
18-month-old baby and his parents."
"Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso's military and allied
militias conducted a retaliatory attack
against Fulani civilians in the Solenzo
area of the Bema and Ban region.
The attack resulted in the deaths
of dozens of people, with videos
circulating online showing bloodied
bodies and evidence of torture.
The military accused the Fulani of
sheltering terrorists responsible
for an earlier attack on its forces."
"China
China reportedly conducted amphibious
landing exercises between March
4 and March 11 with ""invasion
barges"" in the South China Sea,
raising concerns about a potential
invasion contingency against Taiwan.
This week, open-source investigators
examining Chinese social media
detected a fleet of large ships that
could be used as ""invasion barges""
to rapidly deploy heavy military
vehicles and personnel onto beaches.
Satellite imaging technology precisely
located the three barges in Zhanjiang,
Guangdong province - the home base
of the Chinese South Sea Fleet."
"France
A finance ministry employee is accused of
sharing details on Algerian asylum seekers
with an Algerian consulate contact, while
a social worker at the French Office for
Immigration and Integration is accused
of breaching professional secrecy.
These developments come amid
deteriorating relations between
France and Algeria following
France's recognition of Morocco's
sovereignty over Western Sahara."
"South Korea
On Thursday, South Korean military
investigators charged two Air Force
pilots with criminal negligence over an
accidental bombing incident that occurred
during a training exercise on March 6.
The bombing, which took place in the
village of Pocheon near the North Korean
border, injured at least 29 people and
caused significant property damage.
According to reports, eight unguided
air-to-surface bombs were mistakenly
launched from two fighter jets and
landed on the unsuspecting village."
"Gaza Strip
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)
carried out a strike against a group
of terror operatives in the central
Gaza Strip after spotting them
attempting to plant bombs near troops."
"Iraq
Iraqi security forces have killed
Abdullah Makki Muslih al-Rufayi, a senior
leader of the Islamic State (IS) group.
According to Prime Minister Mohammed
Shia al-Sudani, al-Rufayi was
considered one of the most dangerous
terrorists in Iraq and the world.
He was targeted by US sanctions in
2023 and served as the governor of
IS's Syrian and Iraqi provinces."
"Israel
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) shot
and killed two Jordanian suspects
who crossed into Israel near Beit
She'an, after they suddenly moved
towards troops, prompting a response.
Six other suspects were arrested
and are being questioned."
"Myanmar
On Thursday, a junta drone
strike on villages in Kyaukphyu,
Rakhine State, Myanmar, killed
one civilian and injured another,
causing damage to around ten homes.
The attack, which consisted of at least
six bombs, occurred in two phases,
approximately 45 minutes apart, and was
reportedly launched from a navy base
near the Chinese-backed port town of
Kyaukphyu, causing further casualties.
Furthermore, a junta naval vessel
shelled Zin Chaung village, about
30 miles from Kyaukphyu, though
no casualties were reported."
"Myanmar
On Friday, the Karen National Liberation
Army (KNLA) captured a junta military
camp in eastern Myanmar after a
two-week battle, with at least 11
junta soldiers fleeing into Thailand.
The capture of the Pu Lu Tu camp in
Kayin State is a significant blow to
the junta military, which has faced
unprecedented setbacks in fighting
across the country in the past year.
The situation has raised questions
about the sustainability of
military rule in Myanmar.
Casualties were reported on both sides."
"Russia
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU)
has conducted a series of successful
drone strikes on Russian targets.
The attacks have hit two gas
compressor stations, Davidovskaya
and Novopetrovskaya, as well as a
field missile depot for S-300/S-400
air defense systems near Radkovka.
These strikes have caused significant
damage and weakened Russia's military
potential, reducing its ability to
finance the war against Ukraine."
"Russia
Recent drone strikes in Russia have
resulted in no reported casualties but
have caused disruptions and damage.
On March 14, Moscow and the Moscow
region were attacked by drones,
with one reportedly hitting a
residential building in Moscow.
Additional drone strikes were
reported in Kaluga region, where a
drone was shot down with no damage or
casualties, and in Tuapse, Krasnodar
territory, where a fire broke out at
an oil depot after a drone attack."
"Somalia
On Thursday, the National Intelligence
and Security Agency (NISA), in
coordination with Somali military
forces, conducted airstrikes in
the Boos-Hareeri area of Middle
Shabelle, killing 29 Al-Shabab rebels.
Later, a second airstrike killed
an additional 12 terrorists in the
Jambaluul area of the Lower Shabelle."
"Syria
Turkish forces have fired artillery
shells at a fuel station in Sarin
Town and the area around the Teshrin
Dam in the Kobane countryside.
Fortunately, no casualties were
reported as a result of the shelling."
"Syria
Clashes have erupted between Syrian
security personnel and remnants of
the ousted al-Assad regime in Hama's
countryside, resulting in the deaths of
security personnel and injuries to others.
The incident follows a series of violence
in Latakia and Tartus on March 6,
which was described as the most intense
since al-Assad's fall in December."
"Taiwan
Taiwan tracked 12 Chinese
military aircraft, seven naval
vessels, and one official ship
around its country between 6 a.m.
on Thursday and 6 a.m.
on Friday.
Nine aircraft crossed the Taiwan
Strait median line in the countryâs
southwestern Air Defense Identification
Zone, according to the MND."
"Taiwan
Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration
(CGA) expelled multiple Chinese
vessels from Kinmen's restricted
waters, citing suspicion of collecting
data for future combat deployments.
On March 13, a Chinese
research vessel, Yan Ping No.
2, was spotted conducting underwater
detection operations, and two CGA patrol
boats escorted it out of the area.
The next day, four Chinese coast guard
ships were chased away by four CGA patrol
boats after entering Taiwan's waters."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,410 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Around 340 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched an attack on
Kharkiv using Shahed drones, causing
damage to a residential building and
starting a fire near a private house.
Preliminary reports indicate that debris
from a drone struck the residential
building, with emergency services on
the scene assessing the consequences.
The attack occurred in the Novobavarskyi
district, with warnings issued for
residents to stay in shelters due
to approaching Russian drones."
"Ukraine
Russian forces have been active in
Kherson, causing damage and injuries.
In the Korabelnyi district, shelling
shattered windows in residential
buildings, while a drone attack in
the Dniprovskyi district injured a
60-year-old man with mine-explosive
injuries and shrapnel wounds.
The man sought medical attention
independently at the hospital, and
there were no reported casualties
or additional injuries from the
shelling in Korabelnyi district."
"Ukraine
On March 13, Russian forces
killed one resident and injured
12 others in the Donetsk region.
Damage assessments were not
reported in the attacks."
"Ukraine
Over the past 24 hours, Russian
forces launched 511 strikes
on 13 settlements in Ukraine's
southeastern Zaporizhzhia region.
The attacks included airstrikes,
drone strikes, and artillery fire,
resulting in damage to private
homes, apartments, and vehicles.
Fortunately, no civilian
casualties were reported."
"West Bank
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) carried
out operations in the West Bank, resulting
in the deaths of 3 terror operatives, the
detention of over 100 wanted Palestinians,
and the seizure of dozens of weapons.
The operations focused on the towns of
Arraba and Qabatiya near Jenin as part of
the ""Operation Iron Wall"" offensive."
"Serbia
Serbia's capital city of
Belgrade is bracing for a major
anti-government rally on Saturday.
Tens of thousands of students
and protesters are expected
to converge on the city.
After days of marching and cycling toward
Belgrade, the students are anticipated to
reach the city on Friday evening, where
they will be greeted with a festival-like
welcome in the downtown area.
The rally is part of a nationwide
anti-graft movement sparked by a train
station collapse in November that
killed 15 people and is seen as a test
for Vucic's right-wing government."
"Turkey
On Wednesday, hundreds of workers
in Istanbul's ÅiÅli Municipality
joined a growing wave of wildcat
strikes and protests against unpaid
wages and poor working conditions.
The workers, who have not received
their salaries regularly for about a
year, organized a mass protest in front
of the municipality building despite
being declared illegal by authorities.
This protest is part of a larger
movement of municipal workers across
Turkey struggling to make ends meet
with rising living costs and inflation."
"Australia
A light plane crashed onto the roof of
a hangar at the Wedderburn Aerodrome
in southwestern Sydney on Friday.
The pilot, a 70-year-old male,
suffered head injuries but is
believed to be in a stable condition.
NSW Paramedics and Fire and Rescue teams
responded to the scene, using a local
ladder to access the pilot and assess
the building for potential damage."
"Egypt
A passenger train collided with a minibus
in Ismailia province, Egypt, killing
at least eight people and injuring 12.
The crash occurred when the
minibus crossed the tracks
in an unauthorized location."
"Pakistan
A gas pipeline burst in the
village of Abdul Rahim Jaghirani,
near Town Chak in Shikarpur,
resulting in a massive explosion.
The cause of the explosion is unknown,
and gas leakage has affected the area.
The gas supply to some areas, including
Rustam Town, has been suspended."
"Syria
Two men and two women were killed, and two
children were wounded in the explosion of
an old landmine in the Subaykhan desert.
Another man and two women were killed
in a similar incident in Al-Bawatiyah
village in western Deir Ezzor."
"Syria
A child from a Bedouin tribe was fatally
injured by shrapnel from an old landmine
explosion near Al-Karak Al-Sharqi town
in the eastern countryside of Daraa."
"United States
On Thursday, March 13, 2025, an American
Airlines flight caught fire at Denver
International Airport's gate C38.
Passengers were evacuated safely
after the fire was reported,
and the slides were deployed.
Fortunately, the fire was extinguished
with no reported injuries by 6:15 p.m."
"United States
A helicopter crashed into the
Ohio Edison high-tension wires and
landed in the Mogadore Reservoir in
Suffield Township, Portage County.
One body has been recovered, but
authorities are still searching the
area to ensure no one else is missing."
"United States
An airplane crashed at Gaston's
Resort along the White River on
Thursday afternoon, but fortunately,
no injuries were reported.
The incident occurred shortly before 4:00
PM, and officials are awaiting further
details to provide more information."
"United States
A plane crashed near the Pitt-Greenville
Airport on Friday morning,
causing nearby roads to shut down.
The incident occurred at North
Memorial Drive and Belvoir Road.
The number of people on board
is currently unknown, and North
Memorial Road is expected to be
closed for the remainder of the day.
The Greenville Police Department
is assisting with the situation."
"United States
A CSX train collision in Curtis Bay Yard
on March 14 resulted in the derailment
of four railcars and a locomotive.
Two crew members were injured
and taken to the hospital for
non-life-threatening treatment.
The incident is under investigation,
and CSX assures that there is
no safety risk to the public
and no waterways are impacted."
Thanks for joining us for the March
15, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
As a reminder, complete reports with
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