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We Went Fast's mission is to improve the sport of motocross through stories. Because better stories = a better sport. If you love history, data and details, you'll enjoy We Went Fast.
Welcome to We Went Fast. Thank you for listening. If you wanna be a part of the Fast family, visit shop.wewentfast.com for Fast swag, artwork, and books. If you want full access to the weekly content we're producing, join us in the garage. Wewentfast.com/garage.
Brett Smith:Garage members get access to the stats and analysis work that we produce for the NBC Television and Operations crew and they also get first dibs on new products at shop.wewentfast dotcom, which includes autograph artwork. Wewentfast.com/garage. Is Jett Lawrence the greatest rookie ever? It's time to talk about this. We haven't even reached the 2 thirds point of the 2024 Monster Energy Supercross championship, and Jett Lawrence isn't just in prime position to win the title.
Brett Smith:He's in the hunt for the greatest rookie season of all time. Treason, you cry. Off with his head, they chant. Those who speak against Jeremy McGrath, the king of Supercross and the reigning greatest Supercross rookie of all time, do so at their own peril. But this isn't 10th century England, and anyone who has halfway paid attention can see what Lawrence has already done in 10 rounds and who he's doing it against.
Brett Smith:Let's flash back 31 years to 1993. Here's what McGrath faced at round 1 in Orlando. The field included just one former champion, Jeff Stanton, and 4 riders who had previously won a Supercross. Total 4 50 s x race win count, 37. Here's what lined up at round 1 on January 6, 2024.
Brett Smith:Four former champions, 6 titles combined, and 7 riders who had previously hoisted a 4 50 Supercross winners trophy over their heads. Total career win count, 122. For the fact checkers, don't forget Minneapolis 2008 winner, Josh Hill. Hey. He made the night show.
Brett Smith:With Lawrence getting his first win in his first try and Aaron Plessinger winning his first 4 50 s x at round 3, we're up to 9 winners racing in 2024. Looking at a chart that you can see at wewentfast.com in the print version of this story, we have the most 4 50 rookie winners. Jeremy McGrath is at the top with 10 wins. Chad Reed has 8, Ryan Dungey, 6, Damon Bradshaw, 5, and Jett Lawrence is tied for 4th place in this category with 5 wins also. James Stewart, 3 wins.
Brett Smith:Trey Kennard, 3 wins also. Go see these charts. There are plenty of charts in this article at wewentfast.com. Jett Lawrence, gotta pinch yourself. After the wire to wire win in Birmingham, Lawrence was asked if he had processed what he was doing against this lineup of champions and winners.
Brett Smith:In response, he shared memories of being a young teenager in Europe, watching Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, and Cooper Webb racing in America. When he came to the United States in 2019, he had opportunities to be a junior training partner with a few of those riders he now competes against. Those impressions stuck with him. Now that I'm racing these guys, it's kinda like, I kinda forget who I am sometimes, said Lawrence, now 20 years old. On the starting line, I'm sitting next to Tomac and Kenny or Cooper, and I'm saying to myself, yeah, this is sick.
Brett Smith:And then I go, oh, I need to do a job. You gotta kinda pinch yourself. As a 22 year old rookie, Jeremy McGrath said something similar to himself. I'm going into the 93 season, basically racing against my heroes. Then I'm like, these guys are gods, he said from his home in California.
Brett Smith:They're unbeatable. Lawrence can now stop pinching himself. In just 3 weekends, he manhandled Daytona, dominated Birmingham, and surgically controlled all 3 races of the Indianapolis Triple Crown. He's more than proven his place amongst the riders he once idolized from afar. And now he's on pace to come close to, match, even snatch the 4 50 Supercross rookie season wins record.
Brett Smith:Set in 1993, over a decade before Lawrence was born, McGrath ended that year with 10 wins in 16 races. At the time, that was also the most races any rider had ever won in a season, period. With 5 wins in the first 10 rounds and 7 races remaining in 2024, Lawrence is now tied with Damon Bradshaw for 4th most rookie season wins. One more win ties in with Ryan Dungey. The only rider on this chart below that Lawrence isn't already outpacing for wins is McGrath.
Brett Smith:And I'm looking at another chart. This is the 4 50 s x rookie report cards through 10 rounds. I'm not gonna read the whole thing. It's quite lengthy. Go to wewentfast.com to read it.
Brett Smith:But here are the categories, and I'll read you where Jett Lawrence stands in 2024. Average finished position, 3.1 consecutive wins were up to 3 after his win in Indy. Six podiums on the season, 10 starts because we have 10 rounds. He's in 1st with 210 points, 8 top fives, 5 wins, and we compare him to McGrath, Reed, Dungey, Bradshaw, Trey Kennard, and James Stewart for their rookie seasons. Again, go see that chart at wewentfast.com when you're done listening.
Brett Smith:Like McGrath, Lawrence is the only other rookie to string together 3 consecutive overalls within the first 10 rounds. Inside Lucas Oil's stadium last weekend, his 3rd consecutive victory happened in big red stamp fashion. In the indie press conference, there was no look at what you're doing comments or questions. Lawrence talked about comfort and rhythm on a track that was anything but comfortable or rhythmic. While Roczen, the only other rider who actually challenged Lawrence in the Triple Crown answered survival as his one word response to how he manages a track like that.
Brett Smith:Roczen led the first 6 laps of t c 1 and t c 2 and the first 10 laps of t c 3. But every time he put some distance between he and Lawrence, Lawrence figured out a way to keep Kenny close. With a 21 point lead after 10 rounds, murmurs of it's over circulate the between rounds conversations. And that isn't exactly defeatist chatter. It's reality.
Brett Smith:In 50 years of Supercross history, only 2 comebacks greater than 17 points have ever happened after round 10. The first was in 1983, which is fully detailed in a story that you can find at wewentfast.com. And the second happened just last year when Cooper Webb exited the season in Nashville, and then Eli Tomac ruptured his Achilles in Denver. We saw this coming. Right?
Brett Smith:January 6, 2024 seems like an eternity ago when the series and fans greatly anticipated watching a new crop of rookies go up against a powerful group of champions and veterans. Because of Lawrence's unique premier class entry, motocross, supermotocross, then supercross, and then the way he dominated pro motocross to the point of perfection and then won the inaugural Supermotocross championship, winning right away in Supercross was almost expected. And if it wasn't expected, it certainly wasn't a surprise when he did. This wasn't so when Jeremy McGrath lined up in Orlando for the 1993 Supercross opener. In fact, he was so unsure of his own ability that he asked Honda to renegotiate his contract to pay main event bonuses back to 5th place because he couldn't see himself getting on the podium when his competition included his teammate, defending champion Jeff Stanton, Damon Bradshaw, who won 9 races the previous year, Mike LaRocco and Mike Kudrowski, who both made frequent podium appearances, and a handful of other riders that he didn't see himself beating often, if ever.
Brett Smith:Hindsight is so crystal clear, however, and McGrath cost himself a lot of money changing that contract. Preseason 1993, if you had written a preview that suggested Damon Bradshaw would win just 2 races, finish off the podium more than on, and end the season in 4th, and that Jeff Stanton would only get a garbage time victory and end the season in 3rd, and that a rookie would set a new single season win record, you would have been accused of drinking too much premix. I was feeling apologetic for beating Stanton, even for passing him, McGrath said. But from there, the confidence took over. I was like, oh, I can do that every week?
Brett Smith:That's not that hard. And as they say, the rest is history. Here are 2 more rookies that Jett Lawrence is still chasing, Chad Reed and Ryan Dungey. In 2003, Chad Reed put in the greatest rookie performance to not win a title. He scored 360 points in a 16 race season, won more races than the champion, Ricky Carmichael, and landed on the podium 14 times.
Brett Smith:His worst finish, 6th place twice. On one hand, you could argue that the field was weak. Just 3 riders qualified for all 16 main events. Or you could look at it this way, that Carmichael and Reed were just that good. In 2010, rookie Ryan Dungey faced a brutal lineup.
Brett Smith:He went up against 7 riders who had won a race, including defending champion James Stewart, who won round 1, Dungey was 2nd, and former 2 time champion Reid, who finished 19th at Anaheim 1. But by round 7, both of those riders were gone from the series. And at round 14 of 17, Dungey's last remaining serious challenger, Ryan Villapoto, was severely injured. Like McGrath 17 years earlier, Dungey wrapped up the title 2 rounds early. Given Lawrence's performance so far on a 4 50, he's on pace for a similar early title chase conclusion.
Brett Smith:Since May 2023, when he moved full time to the 4 50 class, he's won 18 of 24 overalls. That's 75%. And if we're counting straight gate drops, motocross motors, SMX Moto main events, and individual Triple Crown races, Lawrence has won 32 of 42, and he deliberately gave one of those SMX Motors away in a math problem gone sideways. And another chart called tracking Jett Lawrence's 4 50 career, I've already gone over much of what is in this chart, but one thing that sticks out is his 19 podiums in the 24 starts, which means 18 of his podiums are wins. Only one of his career 4 50 podiums is not a win.
Brett Smith:Winning is never guaranteed, and you never know when or if that next one is coming. Eli Tomac knows that all too well right about now, and 2024 is starting to feel very familiar. The defending champion has one race win and sits 3rd in points. The guy who should have won the title the previous year, Tomac, still has no wins, has been off the podium more than on, and sits forth in the standings. Feels like 1993 all over again.
Brett Smith:Is history repeating itself? We close this article out with a Jett Lawrence milestone tracker. With 7 rounds remaining, here are rookie milestones that Jett can challenge. Wins. He needs 6 wins in the remaining 7 races to beat Jeremy McGrath's 1993 rookie season win record, which stands at 10.
Brett Smith:He needs 5 wins to tie the king. Podiums, these are already out of reach. Chad Reed earned 14 podiums in 2003. At this point, Lawrence can reach 13 if he finishes top 3 all the way through Salt Lake City. Championships, McGrath, 1993, and Dungey, 2010, are the only rookies to win the Supercross championship.
Brett Smith:Points. Jett needs to average 22 points per race to beat Ryan Dungey's rookie record of 363 points. And Dungey had 17 rounds just like Lawrence has today. To do that specifically, obviously, if you know the point system, he could finish second at each of the remaining 7 rounds. Single season.
Brett Smith:If Lawrence, gasp, wins out, he'd rank 4th on the list for most wins all time in a single season. Another chart, Jeremy McGrath and Ricky Carmichael are at the top of the chart for most single season wins with 14 apiece. James Stewart had 13 and 7. Ricky Carmichael had 11 in 2002. Jett Lawrence could get up to 12 if he wins out.
Brett Smith:McGrath, 1993 had 10, 10 in 95, 10 in 2000. Ryan Villapoto got 10 in 2013. And then ending the chart is a group that won 9 races in a single season. Bradshaw was the 1st to do it in 92. McGrath did it in 94.
Brett Smith:Filipoto did it in 2012. Dungey in 2016. And Eli Tomac is the most recent to do it in 2017. Thanks again for listening to the We Went Fast podcast. Join the family at shop.wewentfast.com, and join us in the garage atwewentfast.com/garage.