Subscribe
Share
Share
Embed
Trump is fighting to control how states run their own elections, and the fallout could shape the midterms before a vote is cast. Aaron Rupar, an independent journalist who's tracked Trump and the media covering him for years, joins Heidi and Joel to break down what's happening and why it matters outside Washington.
Aaron explains how he tells what's real from what isn't, in a news cycle built for speed, and why he left Vox to build Public Notice on his own terms. He also gets into how Twitter/X, Bluesky, and Substack have split the audience for political news, and what that means when rural voters end up with different versions of the same story depending on where they look.
In this episode:
- What Trump's push for more control over state elections actually means
- How Aaron fact-checks claims in real time without getting it wrong
- Why he left Vox to go independent, and what changed
- Platform fragmentation: Twitter/X, Bluesky, Substack, and what it does to political coverage
- The enthusiasm gap heading into the midterms, on both sides
Connect with Aaron Rupar:
Aaron's argument is simple. Watch the elections fight, not the noise around it.
The Hot Dish is brought to you by the One Country Project. To learn more, visit OneCountryProject.org, or find us on Substack (Onecountryproject.substack.com), and on YouTube, Bluesky, and Facebook (@onecountryproject).
- (00:00) - – Introduction: Aaron Rupar's role tracking political misinformation
- (02:09) - – Platform fragmentation and the shift in conservative messaging (Twitter, Bluesky, Substack, Threads, Facebook, Truth Social)
- (04:35) - – How platform diversification affects public trust in news
- (05:50) - – Fact-checking, legal risk, and misinformation from figures like RFK Jr.
- (08:15) - – Washington's press culture: independent journalists, source relationships, and Trump's war on the press
- (12:19) - – Media versus power at the correspondents' dinner, and journalism's growing accountability role
- (14:02) - – Election outlook: enthusiasm, turnout, and party dynamics
- (15:26) - – Trump's strategy and the risk of election interference
- (22:12) - – State races, endorsements, and local campaigning
- (23:21) - – Voter enthusiasm, fear-based messaging, and eroding democratic safeguards
- (31:38) - – Minnesota politics and party resilience
- (33:50) - – Local, coalition-based strategy over ideological purity
Creators and Guests
Host
Heidi Heitkamp
U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp served as the first female senator elected from North Dakota from 2013 – 2019. he is the founder and Chair of the One Country Project, an organization focused on addressing the needs and concerns of rural America. Heidi was recently named the Director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago, a university she has long been committed to and a place where she enjoys engaging with students over civic discussions while encouraging them to seek opportunities in public service to our country. Heidi also serves as a contributor to both CNBC and ABC News.
Host
LA
Producer
Laura Anderson
What is The Hot Dish?
Former U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp and her brother, KFGO radio talk show host Joel Heitkamp, engage in animated discussions with newsmakers, elected leaders, and policymakers who are creating new opportunities for rural Americans and finding practical solutions to their challenges. Punctuated with entertaining conversations and a healthy dose of sibling rivalry, The Hot Dish, from the One Country Project, is informative, enlightening, and downright fun.
Heidi (00:05)
Welcome back to the Hot Dish Comfort Food for Rural America. I'm Heidi Heikamp.
Joel (00:09)
And I'm Joel Heikow.
Heidi (00:11)
Well, Joel, some people make it their job to catch politicians saying things before they can walk back and erase the record. Aaron Rupart is one of them. He spent years tracking Trump and the folks that cover him first at Vox and now through his own newsletter, public notice.
With the election fight coming out of Washington right now, we wanted him to help us sort out what's real and what's noise. And we have to acknowledge, Joel, we're a little bit of groupies because we both follow him regularly on X and on Substack and read his stuff because he has insights that not a lot of people are willing to publish. And so thanks so much, Aaron, and welcome to the hot dish.
Aaron (00:52)
Yeah, thanks for having me. It's a real pleasure to join you.
Heidi (00:55)
Well, great. I'm gonna start out because I I don't know if if if this is just what I noticed or or you know, kind of whether you made a conscious effort. I think initially when I followed you, you did a lot more commenting on on the stuff that you posted, you know, kind of like look at this, blah, blah, blah. And now you just kind of post it and I look at it and I I'm always grateful. Number one, I'll draw my own conclusions.
Because I hate the exaggerated language, my God, today is the big day, you know, that everything's gonna completely fall apart. And of course it doesn't. But I I also trust so much what you do that I will repeat or basically expand to my network the work that you're doing. So thank you so much for everything that you're doing and creating this very important public record.
Aaron (01:51)
I appreciate that. Thank you. And yeah, I think a lot of times, especially with the modern Republican Party and Trumpism, it's enough to kind of let the quotes speak for themselves.
Heidi (01:59)
Ha ha ha.
Aaron (02:00)
So you're you're right that sometimes when you get too heavy-handed with commentary, it can kind of alienate people or turn them off, you know, because some people don't want the hyperbole. So you know, sometimes I can't resist, but most of the time I try
Heidi (02:11)
Ha ha.
Aaron (02:12)
just to stick to quoting and and letting people, you know, interpret that for themselves.
Joel (02:16)
You know, Aaron, I don't know how I would have known that Ted Cruz decided to go to a party instead of hanging his state when the whole state was out of power if it hadn't been for you. So I thank you
Heidi (02:27)
Yeah.
Joel (02:28)
for that. I'm sure Ted Cruz hasn't sent you a Christmas card in the last couple of years. But let let me let me ask you this: why those platforms? Why is that the way to get your information out?
Aaron (02:41)
Well, you know, when I started doing political journalism covering national politics back in twenty sixteen, you know, everybody was kind of hanging out on Twitter. And that was really one of the charms of it is that, you know, celebrities, brands, you know, sports teams, politicians, everybody was posting there. So that was kind of an easy choice to begin with. And then, you know, of course, as Elon Musk took over in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three, I was one of the journalists who he banned in late twenty twenty two.
So that really kind of revealed to me that, you know, I couldn't count on platforms like that existing going forward, or I'd have to, you know, kind of diversify at least. So now I post a lot on Blue Sky. you know, like you mentioned, I have a Substack, so I post there and on Substack Notes, and there's Threads, which is a meta product. And you know, for the for some of the old heads, I still post on Facebook too. so there's an audience there. So, you know, I try to hit kind of all the different platforms these days.
You the the ones that I've been actually kind of interested in expanding on and I'm I'm working on a plan for this is Instagram, especially because more and more people are consuming news there. Now, you know, I'm old enough where Instagram kind of feels like a little bit of like a you know foreign territory for me because just the very I I do video stuff, but not so much like with the first person video, you know, having the camera facing me all the time.
but there's still an opportunity there. So, you know, I just think it's it's healthy with how fractured everything is these days to have as many toeholds as you can and reach as many people as you can. And you know I'm even on true social, although I don't really post there that much. even there I'm trying to track what Republicans are up to. So, you know, I just try to to be as many places as they can be at once.
Heidi (04:16)
Well, Aaron, you know, pretty soon on Truth Social you can pay extra to get the heads up and get the insider information so you can, you know, rush to the to the judgment before everybody else. I mean, the corruption never ends,
Aaron (04:30)
if we talked about this a a week from now, I might have more information to share about that because I was actually contacted by a legal group who is looking for a journalist who might have standing to sue over that. now I'm not sure I'm gonna be the one that, you know, has the the strongest case, but you know, there's an idea that, you know, by kind of privatizing what should be public statements, that there might be harm incurred. but yeah,
Heidi (04:53)
Ha ha ha.
Aaron (04:53)
I mean, it is it's it's bonkers to think that that's something that's kind of acceptable.
you know, I'd love to see more Republicans asked about that. You know, they probably just claim that they they didn't know about it or haven't heard about it or something like that, like Mike Johnson usually does. But the fact that it's yeah. Yeah,
Heidi (05:06)
Yeah. See no evil, hear no evil. Yeah.
Aaron (05:08)
I mean it's it's really kind of simulating insider trading, right? It's supposed to give people kind of the the experience of what Trump and his minions are up to every day. you know, not with necessarily committing crimes, but by having to pay a fee to basically the Trump family. So I'm not sure that's rolled out yet, but like I said, stay tuned because it seems like there are at least some legal groups.
We're exploring the possibility of suing over.
Joel (05:30)
So Aaron, a lot of what you do, obviously is getting information out to people and and to just let us know what is out there. let me ask you this. Are you ever are you ever worried that what you're putting out there is wrong?
Aaron (05:47)
Yeah, I mean, sometimes I am. it's difficult with Trump and Republicans because you don't want to be used as like a tool to spread lies. you know, there was actually just an instance of this last night where RFK Jr. was on Fox News and he made this claim about how you know he was attacked he was attacking Dr. Fauci, who is testifying before the Senate tomorrow, and it was kind of like a preview of his testimony. And he was saying that, you know, Fauci was a failure because the US had the number one death rate for COVID.
which know, you could blame other people besides Dr. Fauci for that, I think. But you know, it turned out that that it was not true, that the US actually ranked, you know, like 16th, I think it was. So I posted just a direct quote of RFK Jr. and my post ended up getting a community note on X be you know, just clarifying that that that was not a correct claim that he made there. So, you know, that that's one where I don't necessarily fear feel terrible about that, but because it was kind of a side point anyway, but you you never want to get things wrong or be used to spread misinformation. So
You know, whenever possible, I do fact checks and try to contextualize, you know, claims that are made in clips that I post. so yeah, I mean that it's a daily struggle. And obviously it's very challenging because Republicans lie a lot these days. And so, as I'm watching Fox or watching press conferences or hearings, I'm doing my best to correct, you know, incorrect statements that are being made while also having to be mindful that in the realm that I work in with clips on the internet, quickness is a big currency and it's a big incentive. So
You can't always do like an in-depth fact check. but when possible, you know, I wanna make everything as correct as I can in the tweets or posts that I I put on other platforms. And so yeah, I I am mindful of.
Heidi (07:26)
So before we get into kind of election predictions and where you see things headed, you know, f kind of from your perspective, I want to talk a little bit about the correspondence dinner and the train wreck and the relationship. You know, the the independent media obviously, not a lot of them them there. This was more of an institutional, what we what's called the main stream or
you know, mainstream media event. But
Peter Baker from the New York Times is out basically today saying it's time to end this. This is just a charade. It's not a celebration of the First Amendment. How do you see the advent of independent journalists like yourself changing some of the culture of Washington and changing some of the culture of how we deal with politicians going forward?
Aaron (08:17)
Yeah, well, you know, it's really interesting because, you know, these days I'm based out of Minneapolis. I lived in DC for a number of years, you know, kind of until COVID. And then I had a newborn, and you we we ended up kind of coming back here to pot up with family. So you know, one of the things that I often reflect on is that, you know, even 20 years ago, it wouldn't be possible for me to do what I do at this degree of remove from Washington, DC. But, you know, because of digital communications and social media, I'm able to DM with sources all day or text with them on signal.
you I'm still out in DC a couple of times a year, at least for meetings and things like that. But you know, that's for all of the bad things about the internet, that is one kind of cool thing is that, you know, I can do reporting and commentary and and feel like I'm plugged in to what's going on, even though I'm not actually there. But, you know, I lived in DC long enough to kind of understand how that culture works. And, you know, it's kind of understandable that you know, when when you're reporting on the Trump administration for an outlet that isn't partisan, you know, that you're gonna have warm relationships with some of your sources and
you know, there's that video of Kristen Welker and Stephen Miller
Heidi (09:17)
Yeah.
Aaron (09:18)
at the dinner where, you know, I mean, people are kind of extrapolating a lot from that short interaction. But, you I think most of us would like to think that if we were in a room with Stephen Miller that we wouldn't be, you know, chuckling with him and kind of like having a jolly old time, that you know, maybe you would have a firmer line toward him than that. But, you know, you can see all those relationships. And I'm sure, you know, Heidi, you understand how that works too, where, you know, you make friends with people who are on the other side of the aisle and
Or, you know, journalists who might have different views than you. So I think some of that is understandable. But with Trump for sure, you know, he's attacked the press you know, for so many years now. And, you know, not just attacking them rhetorically, but obviously now, you know, issuing subpoenas to family members of journalists who are doing reporting that he doesn't like, that, you know, it's a little disturbing that it took that speech, you know, for someone like Peter Baker to kind of come out and say that this is a bad idea. because it is kind of a relic of a time where there were more cordial relations between
presidential administrations and the press. And, you know, I I think we've kind of known who Trump is on that on this score for a decade now. You know, going back to you know, him kind of ginning people up at his rallies to boo at CNN or to jeer Jim Acosta. you know, just all of the lengths that he went to to demean and smear journalists. So yeah, I thought it was a pretty sad spectacle. And you know, I I'm you know it is good, at least even if it's a bit belated that
One of the things that seems to be coming out of that is sort of a rethinking of whether that's a good idea. And really it probably wasn't even, you know, in previous eras, during like the Obama administration, for instance, because some of those relationships should be more adversarial. You know, it reporters should really want to hold power to account and not necessarily be friends with them. And so I I thought it was always a bit uncomfortable, but it it's become kind of farcical during the during the Trump era.
Joel (10:59)
Well, and
Heidi (10:59)
Yeah.
Joel (11:00)
and I would throw this in. I recently interviewed over the editorial page editor of a number of newspaper prints up here in the upper Midwest. And, you know, I asked him the same question Heidi just asked you. And he said it's nothing but a Dean Martin roast, just to show you his age. and quite frankly, Heidi's in my age.
Heidi (11:19)
Yeah.
Aaron (11:20)
Yeah.
Joel (11:22)
That that being said, you know, it was worth it to me.
And Heidi, I know that you were asked to comment on this in real time, but it was worth it to me. here's my incredibly partisan moment, and you'll see more in this conversation. to see Wolfblitzer get up there, introduce two people from the Wall Street Journal, and have them get a Catherine Graham award for actually doing the type of journalism that showed Donald Trump's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein and watch Donald Trump have to sit there during it.
And so if nothing else came out of it than that, Aaron, I'm a happy man.
Aaron (12:00)
No, I I'm with you.
Yeah. I I definitely thought that was a kind of unforgettable moment, just how uncomfortable he was. But I mean, when you kind of take a step back, it's like, you know, here's a president who's implicated in a cover-up of a huge pedophilia scandal and sex trafficking and, you know, has been incredibly I mean, there's videos of him at Epstein partying and him pointing at girls. And so there's something kind of obscene about the fact that he's even sort of presiding over an award given in that context. But but you're right. I mean, that is a newsworthy moment and hopefully it
It does kind of get people thinking about, you know, what Trump is all about. Because you know, again, like we can say that it was a bad idea during previous presidencies, but certainly Obama wasn't up there giving awards for reporting, you know, pertaining to horrible scandals that he was involved in because he wasn't involved in horrible scandals like that. So that's where i I think it's different in kind than it was before.
Heidi (12:48)
Yeah, I there's no doubt about it. But but the role of independent journalists is growing. And I think it's going to continue to grow because people aren't consuming their news, you know, on the nightly news. They you know, they really aren't even almost turning to cable anymore, unless you're you're a you know, a total wonk and wanna g get your news twenty-four seven. You aren't looking at that, but they're going to trusted sources and you are.
for many people, Erin, a trusted source, somebody who people can rely on to basically give the straight scoop. So we're gonna play what's gonna happen in November with you. you you have your finger on the pulse. so what what excites you about the midterms and what scares you about the midterms?
Aaron (13:38)
Boy, I would say that I'm a little more scared than excited. you know, I certainly think it's going to be a good cycle for Democrats. I'd be shocked if Democrats don't take the House. so you can kind of start there. And then in the Senate, there's a poll out just today that I saw Jake Sherman from Punchbowl, who is obviously very credible amplifying that showed Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by five points. it seems like Maine is gonna be a tough fight for Susan Collins. And so, when you when you start kind of crunching the numbers there, it seems like Democrats have a
probably less than fifty percent chance, but a realistic chance of even flipping the Senate. But then, I think back to two years ago and how Republicans basically campaigned on Haitians eating cats and dogs in the weeks leading up to that election and how that still was sufficient for them to win. And I just don't think we can really take things for granted or, think that because we have the better argument and because Republicans kind of own the economic frustration that people are feeling, the sense that the country isn't going in the right direction, that that means that they'll necessarily vote.
For Democrats. But then on the other hand, you know, I guess this is three hands now, which we only have two, but
Heidi (14:40)
Ha ha ha.
Aaron (14:42)
there's a lot of factors at play here. and so overall, I you know, I would say that I I think that the Dems are are very likely to win the House. I think the the Senate is more of a toss up. but you know, we also have to be concerned about you know the lengths that Trump will go to kind of put his th his thumb on the scale. it seems like the Safe America Act.
Is kind of DOA at this point. But, you know, they haven't ruled out sending ICE or CBP to polling places to intimidate voters. you know, and who knows? I mean, I don't think he would go the lengths of like deploying troops to seize voting machines or anything like that. But I don't think Trump can be, I don't think that can be put past Trump at this point, that level of desperation. So there's there's a lot that can change. But you know, I I think when you look at the overall direction of the country, I don't I don't see things getting better.
For Republicans over the next one hundred days. you know, the the economic data has been, you
Heidi (15:31)
Yeah.
Aaron (15:31)
know, unspectacular, but but not like disastrous. And yet, you know, when when people are pulled on the economy, they're very frustrated with it. And you see what's going on with Iran without really having an end in sight to that conflict, which is obviously causing energy costs to increase. So, you know, given all of these dynamics, I think it should be a good cycle for Democrats, but we're kind of in an unprecedented situation where we have a president. I mean, I guess there is precedent going back to Trump's last term, but
You know, where he's really willing to play dirty to try to hold on to power. And so I would not be surprised if there are some dirty tricks still to come and and we'll just have to see what the impact of those are.
Joel (16:06)
So, I mean, when you look at this, Aaron, and and you look at the cycles that that Heidi and you are talking about, you know, the the president has put his thumb on the scale of a number of these races. Paxon being one down in Texas. I'm not sure that that race isn't in play because Trump put it in play. if you look at Minnesota, you know, I don't think that the the Klobuchar race was ever going to be close, but let's just admit the fact that
Trump put his finger on the scale for Mike Lindell, who's, you know, he's a quarter bubble from a level. And so
Heidi (16:40)
Yeah.
Joel (16:41)
you you
Aaron (16:41)
Yeah.
Joel (16:41)
look you look at the signs now. I was on my motorcycle riding through Minnesota, you know, and there's Mike Lindell signs everywhere in the conservative areas of Minnesota. And so is it is it good for Democrats to see him put his finger on the scale leading into some of these primaries?
Aaron (17:02)
you know, with Lindell in particular, I do think he is a gift to Minnesota Democrats because I I really have a hard time seeing him win statewide. I mean, you know, like a lot of states, the dynamic here is that you know, the metro here in the Twin Cities is extremely blue. And so, yes, you'll see a lot of Republican signs, you know, out in the countryside, but that's kind of par for the course. now I will say, I mean, I have a lot of friends who work in democratic politics here in Minnesota, and there is a real concern that, you know, the fraud scandal.
will be a problem that hurts Democrats this year. Now, you know, on the other side of that, obviously there was the ICE brutality and CBP brutality in the Twin Cities, which is very motivating for Democrats to get out there and vote, you know, in a way that I think, you know, is kind of galvanizing and might really kind of juice turnout. So I on the other, you so I'm not sure the fraud issue is as galvanizing for Republicans here as the brutality that was inflicted on the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metro is for Democrats. So I I'm not really sweating Minnesota that much. I mean I s I think certainly if it turns out that
you know, Tina, Tina Smith, her seat, which, you know, the primary is still ongoing between Angie Craig, who's a member of Congress, and Peggy Flanagan, who's lieutenant governor here. And that's still very hotly contested and seems like kind of a coin flip. You know, if that ends up being seriously in play, then I think that's an indication that it's going to be a pretty bad cycle for Democrats because it seems like Minnesota is pretty low-hanging fruit. but you're, I think you're right to identify Paxton as being, you know, possibly kind of an own goal on Trump's part where
You know, I I think what Trump's logic was there is that, you know, if he endorsed this guy who seemed like kind of an outsider and a bit of a long shot relative to John Cornyn, and then Paxton wins, he can really take credit, you know, for kind of flipping that into a hardcore MAGA seat. but it's a risky play because, you know, Paxton has a lot of baggage and Talo Rico's a pretty strong candidate. Now there's pulling out, as I mentioned earlier, that shows Talo Rico ahead.
but I also, you know, I have kind of PTSD to previous cycles like you know, in 2020 where Susan Collins seemed like she was losing to Sarah Gideon. And then it turned out that, you know, Collins won by like nine points, right? so I, you know, I try not to make too much out of the polling. And I've been doing this
Heidi (19:05)
Yeah.
Aaron (19:05)
long enough now, going back to 2016, where you know, I just understand that it's never really in the bag like you think it is. so Democrats are gonna have to run through the tape. but you know, again, I I think that there's no reason to think it's gonna be anything other than a very positive.
cycle for Democrats. Although I will mention, you know, that there was polling out last week in the generic ballot that showed that tightening, you know, where Dems are up seven or eight points six months ago and now it's down to three or four points. I don't really know what accounts for that because I don't think Republicans have been up to much of anything that's been benefiting people. But you know, maybe that's just people kind of coming home and and realizing that, you know, it's going to be a choice between Democrats and Republicans and they're going to have to pick one and, you know, conservative voters maybe opting for the the choice that they've made in previous cycles. I'm not quite sure. But that that was disconcerting to me to
Heidi (19:46)
Yeah.
Aaron (19:46)
see that the generic ballot is tightening.
Heidi (19:48)
Yeah. Well, let me let me give you my spin on it. There has been no interim election that's been good for the Republicans. So the swings have been mammoth. The enthusiasm on the Republican side, and Joel can speak to this because he talks to conservatives every day. They are they are not talking. They you know, I I was I was at a public event in the middle of Indiana.
All the way through Indiana, I did not see one red hat. I did not see one MAGA hat. I did not see anyone, and and you know, it wasn't a political rally, but by the same token, people aren't flying the flag the way they used to. I I live right on the Missouri River, you know, five years ago, even after Trump lost, you would see every other boat had a Trump flag. You don't see a Trump flag. And so I think that there is a lot of lack of enthusiasm among Republicans.
they're gonna have to scare people like eating cats and dogs or whatever that looks like. But you know, the Trump, the reliable Trump voter is not a consistent voter in the interim or in the, you know, when Trump's not on the ballot. And so if you're a Republican and you you see that John Cornyn, I think John Cornyn was gonna lose. And I think that's why Trump jumped in, 'cause he wanted to be the guy who said, Look what happened. I think Cornyn
Was on his way to losing without the endorsement. Now, if he had endorsed Cornyn, that might have turned the tide. But staying out of it meant that he basically couldn't take credit for anything. So I think, you know, I think you look at Ohio and even Florida. Don't count out Florida, although I would not invest a dime there. Ohio,
Aaron (21:29)
Yeah, that's what I was gonna say.
Heidi (21:30)
Alaska, Maine, North Carolina.
These are going to be close races. The one that concerns me on the other side is Michigan, and we'll see what happens in the primary. But but I
Aaron (21:42)
Mm-hmm.
Heidi (21:42)
think you know, kind of telling people, you know, you're gonna have to work really hard and keep doing what you've been doing. But if you do, we're gonna see a really good night on in November for Democrats.
Aaron (21:56)
Yeah, you know, and I think it's notable that I think Trump kind of didn't really learn the lesson of his first term, which it it never really went great for him politically, but I think part of what kept his numbers at where they were was that the economy was perceived to be really strong. And, you know, he campaigned strongly on economic, you know, kind of economic frustrations that people had in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four. And then it's like, you know, he took power and kind of did everything to kind of, you know, hamstring the economy with.
Tariffs and obviously the war in Iran. you know, he just hasn't been focused on economic issues. And you know, to the point where he's even said, you know, basically directly that he doesn't care
Heidi (22:32)
I don't care.
Aaron (22:33)
about people's financial circumstances. And so I think that makes it harder for casual voters or kind of like irregular voters to support him. And you're also right that, you him not being on the ballot, you know, is something that needs to be accounted for, where 2018 obviously was a a pretty bad cycle for Republicans, 2022.
was not a great cycle for Republicans despite all of the hype that year about a red wave. And you know, the other thing that's really been sticking out to me is that you know, I've been watching these speeches that he's been increasingly doing. He was in Michigan yesterday. you know, he's he's traveled to a few of the battleground states, Pennsylvania recently. And you know, it's the same old story with Trump, but part of the idea, you know, you watch Fox News and it's like Trump travels to Battleground to campaign for Mike Rogers.
And then you watch his actual speech and it's two hours of him talking about himself. You know, maybe he mentions Mike Rogers in passing for like five seconds. but you know, Trump really only knows how to do that one style of speech, which is basically promoting himself. And so you wonder how much candidates even really get out of that when he when he goes to these states. And so, yeah, I mean, I think Heidi, what you were talking about are is another reason, kind of the low enthusiasm that Republicans have. And meanwhile, Democrats I think are really, you know, kind of they're really galvanized because obviously we've we've lived through a tough
eighteen months of the threats to democracy and kind of the the authoritarian actions that Trump has taken. and we saw this in his first term. That really gets people out to vote. And so I do think there's an enthusiasm gap that on top of everything else bodes well for Democrats this year.
Joel (23:55)
So, Aaron, here's my pledge to you. If I do something three times and then complain that nobody should ever do it, you know, you can call me out on it. And that's what voting by mail Donald Trump has done. That
Heidi (24:07)
Yeah.
Joel (24:08)
to me, in vote by mail is save act with however you want to describe it, you know, you d utilizing the filibuster, getting rid of it. That the whole issue of voting by mail to me is the tell of power gone.
It you know, and it feels as though he knows that. And what he's doing is trying to set up for bad news to claim this is why. And I'm curious what you think about that.
Aaron (24:36)
I think you're right. And I think people kind of forgot that this was what he did in twenty twenty as well. I mean, I wrote for Vox that summer of twenty twenty, you know, about how his attacks on male voting, which were going on that entire year, were laying the groundwork to basically claim that the election had been stolen from him because everybody knew that the first ballots that are counted are the in person, and then in a lot of these states the male ballots are counted later. And that's exactly how it played out. I mean, we all remember that speech he gave election night in the middle of the night, one of his craziest speeches about how the election had been stolen and
the male votes were rigged, but that was all kind of a predictable consequence of the rhetoric that he had been using all year. And we see it again now. Now, just because he says stuff like that doesn't mean that he's going to be able to kind of successfully steal the election. Obviously he didn't in 2020. But, Republicans, I think, are even more like the guardrails are even more gone than they were then, where, you know, I don't know if there's like a Brad Raffensperger, in every state that's going to prevent him if it's a close contested race from trying to
To steal it. So I am a little concerned that, the Republican Party has become even more beholden to him than it was six years ago and what the consequences of that would, you know, could be if an election ends up being contested. but I think if you kind of take the polling at face value, I mean, especially the House, I don't think is going to be close enough where a seat here, a seat
Heidi (25:55)
I don't need them.
Aaron (25:55)
there is gonna swing the result. And, you know, in the Senate, I have concerns that even if Democrats do pick up enough seats to draw, even or even be slightly up.
because if it's even, obviously JD Vance will break the tie. Is that you know, I think John Fetterman has kind of telegraphed that I would not be surprised at all if he switches parties, because they'll be pressuring him to do that. And don't think he's going to be able to win reelection regardless there. So I do kind of have concerns about that. But I guess you'd kind of take that scenario for Democrats if if they end up, winning enough seats where it's tied and then you know the JD Vance vote comes into play. that that that means that it was a really good cycle. And that means that even if Republicans do hold on to the Senate, that Trump will be very weakened that.
Heidi (26:34)
these elections are about trends and and enthusiasm, midterms. And you know, you we mentioned that Biden did better in his midterm. That was because of Roe v. Wade. I mean, that Supreme Court decision basically woke up a sleeping, silent majority that had taken reproductive rights for granted and people wanted to express their frustration. I don't think if Roe v. Wade had been overturned, I think it would have been.
much a much more difficult midterm election for for biden. And so there's there's always something. And I I I I find it interesting because this the 16 election, which was Obama's last midterm, the Democrats lost huge numbers in the Senate. It said that was the year we lost all the marks. Mark Beggage and Mark Udahl and Mark Pryor
And the issue that came up at the very end was Ebola. You know, okay, you know, Obama's not protecting us against Ebola, and they weaponized it. And Democrats are always flat footed because they go, no one will believe that. That's crazy,
Aaron (27:44)
Yeah.
Heidi (27:44)
you know. And and so what what issues? You follow this pretty closely. I mean, I think they've played th they probably have outplayed the transgender issue, although I expect that's going to come back. What issues do you think will kind of kind of
rise up here in the last three months of this campaign to basically try and swing some votes the Republican direction.
Aaron (28:10)
Yeah, the one that we haven't talked about yet that Trump has been hammering is the communism thing. I mean, yeah, which is I mean, that's kind of my reaction to is to chuckle. It's like, you know, especially I mean, I'm I'm, you know, in my early forties, but you know, even me, it's like people my age and younger, like the whole red scare stuff doesn't really work because, you know, that just wasn't really a thing in our lives. I mean, you know, if if you were alive during, you know, kind of the Cuban Missile Crisis or, you know, even even a little bit later than that, you know, maybe it's kind of animating, but
Not so much for us. And so, you know, I but it again, it's like Trump isn't trying to speak to people like me. And, you know, Joel, obviously you're in touch with conservatives and I'm in touch with enough of them to kind of have like a sense of at least like what people are talking about there. so but I just I I can't really think like them. So to me the communism stuff seems preposterous, but you know, I mean, maybe with the rise of the DSA, you know, th there's a little bit of traction to be made there with with something like that. So I mean that that seems to be really what they want to run on. I mean, Mike Johnson has been
hammering that and you know Stephen Miller had that speech last week about, you know, this kind of like fake communist conspiracy that he that he sees throughout the world that, you know, if Democrats win, basically you know, labor will be abolished and your home will be confiscated and all of your money will be taken away. and So it's you it's blatant fear mongering. It's not new. I mean Republicans have relied on stuff like that, you know, going back generations now.
But you know, it's and it's a sign of desperation too, because you know, obviously they have total control. And if they had a positive story to tell, I think they would try to tell it. But even though I think the sentiment on the economy that people have is worse than it really has any right to be. I mean, I don't think we're like living through like a you know, obviously we haven't been in a recession or even, you know, let alone a depression. but even then.
There isn't a lot of positive stuff to tout, so I think they have to resort to the fear-mongering. And I I'm not totally sure it won't work because it's worked in the past. But to the extent that people are kind of voting on wanting change because the party in power hasn't been delivering, you know, I think that's gonna be a a good situation for Democrats to be in.
Joel (30:12)
You know, I I'll go back to what Heidi said about flat footed, I call it chicken in many cases. I think the Democrats are afraid to punch and then they let themselves get punched. But I think it's hard to make an argument that Democrats are the party of communism when you know Donald Trump has such a a history of parting with Vladimir Putin. You know, the the the guy likes Vladimir Putin and and there's plenty of examples of that that the Democrats can use.
The only thing about the Democrats is they've got to use it. And so my question of you is the situation with Ken Martin. Ken Martin is, you know, he's not doing well. We have to acknowledge that. I know Ken, I consider Ken a friend, but there's no money in the bank. And he's not real popular with Democrats right now. Where do you see that going, Aaron?
Aaron (31:06)
Yeah, that's a tough one for me too, because I've known Ken going back like 15 years now. you know, obviously he was the chair of the party here. And like I mentioned earlier, I have a lot of friends who work in in politics here in Minnesota. So, but yeah, I mean the the bank the bank's the bank statement kind of is the bank Democrats are in debt and Republicans have this huge war chest. And that is problematic. And, you know, it's always tough when you're not in power to, you know, really kill it with fundraising and then
On top of that, all the intimidation that Trump has done, where, you know, if you're a large company or you're you're a wealthy person in this country and you are donating Democrats, like that could open you up to Trump harassing you, to investigations. So, you know, there are some dynamics that I think are kind of unique that, you know, maybe are playing a role in that. But so I don't know. I mean, I guess I don't have be beyond the fundraising stuff, I don't have a super strong view on Ken Martin and how he's doing other than I he's Pod Save America and I was I was just watching these clips.
Yesterday where he was defending the fact that, you know, the allocation that the DNC is giving to some of the state parties is the same, you know, even including some of the territories that don't vote for Senate seats, that where the the voting power is not, the same at like as like a Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. And that sort of, even if it's well intentioned, that seems pretty indefensible to me. So it seems a little bit late in the cycle, I like the you know, it's kind of baked in that Democrats are going to be at a fundraising disadvantage this year. and that's not great, but
You know, sometimes those things do show up, I think ultimately in the polling. And it it hasn't seemed to be so consequential that, you know, it's not like Democrats are losing or are facing a scenario where, you know, Republicans are going to gain seats or really, you know, have a strong cycle this year. So you know, but but I'll kind of leave the the dissecting of his tenure to others because honestly, I try to stay out of a lot of the intra damn stuff. the longer that I've done this, I've found that, you know, given the c the type of coverage that I do that.
You know, kind of staying focused on what, especially in this environment, Republicans control everything. there's a lot of coverage to be done of what Republicans are doing. And so even last night there was the L Sayed Haley Stevens debate. And I had people on both sides kind of texting me with clips that they wanted me to post. And I just kind of blissfully stayed out of that because you know, once there's a candidate, I'll certainly, you know, and they go on TV and talk about Mike Rogers, I'll get involved there. But I've always come more from kind of like the journalistic
Heidi (33:18)
kind hopefully stayed on that because you know once there's candidates all certainly you they go on T V and talk about like Rogers, I'll get involved there. I've always come work with kind of like the
Aaron (33:27)
background and less the political background.
And I have weighed in on primaries in the past and I usually find that just creates kind of hard feelings and people kind of look to me for something different than that. So you know, I I'll leave that sort of the the internal fights to others.
Heidi (33:41)
Well, I it it it remains to be seen. I hope, Aaron, you'll come back and spend some time with us after this is all over and we can
Aaron (33:49)
I'd love to.
Heidi (33:49)
swap stories. But the one the one thing that is essential, Democrats won't do well unless they go out and vote and unless they bring some coalition and and are willing to not put some kind of litmus test on on our candidates and give them the ability to
you know, basically speak to their constituents. And and the problem is that we can't be we can't grow as a party unless we become more local. And being a national
democrat in North Dakota is pretty damn tough. being a North
Aaron (34:23)
I'm sure.
Heidi (34:24)
Dakota Democrat's not so hard.
Aaron (34:26)
Well and I just
I wanna just interject on that one too, because you even like when Plattner had won the the primary, I mean he was never my cup of tea, like I was never a fan of his, but I refrained, you like no, I did not. But
Heidi (34:35)
Didn't like the Nazi tattoos, did ya?
Aaron (34:38)
it was kind of like, you know what? I I I'm not gonna go out of my way to bash this guy because if it's if it's him or Susan Collins, we need him to win, right? So I think that's kind of the mentality and energy that Democrats have to bring into the cycle, you know, to to kind of obviously it it's good to have hard fought primaries and let the better candidate win, and there's gonna be attacks that that are made as a
part of that process. But yeah, let's let's not kind of make the perfect enemy the good. And I think it's important for people to just go and vote and kind of, you know, see the bigger picture. So I I am with
you on that 100%.
Joel (35:07)
and I just want to add that I'm even in the minority, probably out of us three, because Platner d one of the things I liked about him was I'd give him my keys in a in a tough bar. because when the fighting started, he wouldn't run out the door. that being said, Aaron, don't quit doing what you're doing, because what you're doing makes what I'm doing easier. So thank you. It feels like I'm still saying staying eligible for football with
Gloria Barrett, who I used to peek over her shoulder and cheat a little bit. So thanks for what you're doing, man.
Aaron (35:41)
I appreciate that. Thank guys for having me.
Heidi (35:41)
Thanks, Aaron.
Aaron (35:43)
yeah, it's been really nice talking to you.
Heidi (35:44)
You bet.
Heidi (35:47)
Hey, thanks so much for joining us on the hot dish brought to you by One Country.
Joel (35:52)
You can learn more about us at one country project dot org that's in dot org and be sure to follow us on Substack, YouTube, Facebook, and Blue Sky.
Heidi (36:01)
And
we'll be back next week with more hot dish comfort food for rural America.