Subscribe
Share
Share
Embed
Angelika Brenner-Cecerle, the partner at Recom Relocation, invites once a month experts, colleagues, and internationals to share their knowledge and experience in Austria.
Recom is a relocation agency in Vienna and offers immigration service, home finding, school and kindergarden search, settling-in-service, car import, change of drivers licenses, intercultural training, and events for expats "Club Melange".
www.recom-relocation.at
www.clubmelange.at
instagram.com/recomrelocation
www.instagram.com/clubmelange
facebook.com/recomrelocationgmbh
www.facebook.com/clubmelangevienna
linkedin.com/company/recom-relocation/
Welcome to “Let´s talk Austria!”
Our episode today: The Super Election Year 2024
Welcome, Dear Listeners, today, we have POLITICS as our topic again – and as usual if we talk about politics, Michael has joined me to give us an insight into the 2024 elections in Austria – welcome back, Michael!
M: Thanks for having me again, Angelika and a warm welcome to all listeners – it is a pleasure to be back!
A: Michael, 2024 seems to be special in many aspects – especially in politics: we have a so-called “SUPER-ELECTION” year – globally, but also here in Austria! Can you please let us know what makes this year so special or even “SUPER”?
M: I’d love to try to explain, Angelika: as we have discussed before, different governmental functions have varying durations of terms – for example 5 years for the national assembly in Austria, 6 years term for the president and between 4 and 6 years for regional or federal governments. Due to this arithmetic, each year has a distinct number of elections. And in some years, this culminates in a higher number of elections including important country-wide elections. This is what happens in 2024 and this is what we call a “SUPER-ELECTION-YEAR”.
A: Aaaah – I understand. So, is it only the sheer amount of elections in a certain timeframe or are there other criteria to make an election-year “SUPER”?
M: You’re spot-on – it’s not only the number of elections - there should at least be 1 or 2 nation-wide ones in the given year which have significant impact on the political landscape for the following years to make an election year “SUPER” – and this is the case in 2024 in Austria.
A: I would like to quickly switch from Austria to the wider picture – 2024 is pretty special world-wide when it comes to landmark elections – isn’t it?
M: Absolutely correct Angelika, it is in a fact a GLOBAL SUPER ELECTION year with significant potential for far reaching political and social consequences beyond the respective national impact.
A: So, I guess we are all aware there will be presidential elections in the US in November with all its implications on the global political landscape – what other elections make 2024 so interesting?
M: Well, we have the very recent national elections in the UK and France – both called for on very short notice prior to the end of the designated terms. Then we already had presidential elections in Russia – unsurprisingly ending with the victory of Vladimir Putin - elections for the new parliament in Iran followed by an unexpected presidential election due to the death of the sitting president during a helicopter crash. And of course, as you mentioned before – we are all sort of banned by the mother of all election battles for the US president in November. I would say that these are the ones with the biggest global impact given the critical roles of these countries in their respective geography as well as in the global picture.
A: I think we will come back to results and potential consequences a bit later – let’s get back to Austria. Which elections are taking place in 2024?
M: In total, we have 6 elections in Austria this year. And these are:
1. Communal Elections in the Federal State and the city of Salzburg (4th biggest city in Austria) in March
2. Communal Elections in the city of Innsbruck (5th biggest city in Austria) in April
3. Election for the EU Parliament in June
4. Election for the Austrian Parliament in September
5. Election for the Federal Parliament of Vorarlberg in October
6. Election for the Federal Parliament of Styria in November
A: Wow, this is a lot – and I guess also a lot of work to organize, correct?
M: Absolutely! And don’t forget, in addition there are often decisive run-off elections needed especially in communal elections for the mayors as it happened in Innsbruck this year for example.
A: So why don’t we start with the 2 communal elections that already happened in spring 2024 – Salzburg and Innsbruck. What happened and what are potential consequences Austria-wide?
M: So let’s start with Innsbruck as the most local election. Innsbruck is sort of special as the political landscape is quite diverse and split – especially when it comes to the peoples party ÖVP: there are 2 former ÖVP members who run their own personal list and thereby split the votes in an otherwise pretty conservative federal Tirol. This allowed the Green Party and its candidate for mayor and current incumbent Georg Willi to come out first of the initial round at approx. 23% of the votes. Runner up was Johannes Anzengruber, a former ÖVP member at 19%. Those 2 advanced to the run-off election 2 weeks later – with Anzengruber emerging as the winner at 60%. So after 1 term the green party lost the mayor in Innsbruck again. In the city council we now have a coalition between the party of Anzengruber, the Green party and the social democrats.
A: What do we learn for Austria from this election?
M: In general, I would assume the more local an election gets, the more individuals become important and the less the traditional political parties are the drivers for the voter’s decision. This makes it harder to make valid predictions for nationwide elections. Anyway, we will see later on that there might be an indication that a pretty tough year in elections for the peoples party might come up…..
A: Ok, so that was the capital city of Tyrol, Innsbruck. How about Salzburg?
M: Well, Salzburg City was intensively watched as there was a realistic chance for the second mayor of the communist party in a major Austrian capital. As you might remember, the communist party with its candidate Elke Kahr won the elections in Graz, second biggest city in Austria, in 2021 after decades of either ÖVP or SPÖ majors. And now, Kay-Michael Dankl from the Communists reached the run-off election against Bernhard Auinger from the Social Democrats. The incumbent ÖVP was cut in half from 41 to 21 % and did not reach the run-off.
Finally, it did not come to the second communist mayor – the run-off was clearly won by the social democrat candidate. So this continues the permanent switch between SPÖ and ÖVP mayors since 1990.
A: In the countryside though, the situation looks a bit different, doesn’t it?
M: Indeed, it does – the peoples party clearly dominates and keeps holding most of the mayors in the smaller cities and towns. They are traditionally the party of the rural areas since decades.
A: So with these results, Austria moved to the first nation-wide election: the election for the EU parliament located in Straßburg, France. For those from outside the EU who are not familiar with the European system: all member states vote nationally to elect their representatives for the European Parliament. Austria is holding 20 of the 720 seats of the EU Parliament and these members of parliament are elected from lists of the Austrian political parties.
M: Absolute correct, Angelika. National Parties of comparable political ideology form partnerships in Europe (e.g. the social democrats or the conservative people’s parties / Christ democrates) but you voteyou’re your established national parties, not for European ones.
A: And the results in Austria were quite interesting, to say the least?
M: You can definitely say so! For the first time in a national election, the right-wing Freedom Party FPÖ was able to claim the first place! This was possible due to significant losses of the ÖVP who had won the previous election in 2019 by a wide margin.
A: But the FPÖ is very skeptical towards the concept of the EU!
M: And they managed to get the vote of those in the population who are EU-critical or skeptical very well! Obviously, there is a significant proportion of people in European states that think the EU is too bureaucratic and there should be more competences with the national states and less power in Bruxelles. Bruxelles, the Belgian capital, is a synonym for perceived overboarding bureaucracy in the eyes of many EU critics.
A: So, can you briefly describe the new situation in the EU parliament for the coming 5 years term?
M: I think it is fair to say that there was a move to right side on the political spectrum. The conservatives (EVP, European Peoples Party) as classical center right party gained 18 seats in the parliament and the further-right groups together gained additional 23 seats. On the other side, social democrats with -3 seats, the green parties with -17 and the liberals with – 27 seats were on the losing side. As a consequence, there is the expectation that the new Commission of the EU – most probably again under President Ursula von der Leyen from Germany – will have to work closer together at least with some more EU-skeptical right-wing parties.
A: Very interesting! Were there other immediate reactions to the results of the EU election?
M: Yes, absolutely! The most significant one for sure was happening in France: as the ultra-right-wing party Ressemblement National under Marine Le Pen emerged as the big winner of the EU election, president Emanuel Macron called for premature parliamentary elections immediately which were held already early July. The result was a significant win of Marine LePen in the first round. However, after the run-off elections, the left union of Social Democrates, Green Party, Communists and onother far-left party emerged as the winners and RN only came in as third overall. This still leaves President Macron in a very difficult situation as there is no clear majority in the newly elected Parliament – there are in fact 3 almost equally sized blocks and it will be very interesting to see how this will work out and how it will influence the next presidential elections in 2027.
A: So do I get it right – is there a general move towards the right and maybe even ultra-right parties in Europe?
M: These parties are currently thriving, no doubt, and they obviously do profit from certain concerns in the EU population, driven by the war in Ukraine and the perceived refugee crisis that seems to be a growing problem in Europe. But we also have a very recent example for a change to the other side……
A: And I assume you are referring to the UK now – right?
M: Absolutely, Angelika!
A: So please tell us what happened there – I assume it was rather not a consequence of the EU election as they left the Union?
M: No – in this case, early elections were called by the conservative prime minister Richie Sunak after massive losses from the conservative Tories to the social democrats Labour Party in communal elections earlier in 2024.
A: So I assume this move for early elections didn’t work out for the Tories in the end?
M: Nope – in fact, they lost in a landslide and the British parliament is in Labour’s hands for the first time since 2010 with Keir Starmer serving as the new Prime Minister in Downing Street 10.
A: Ok, we have discussed a lot about European politics now based on the EU election! Let’s get back to Austria and let’s focus on the next big thing here – the election of a new Parliament in September, the so-called Nationalratswahl.
M: This is – of course – going to be the most important and most influential election for Austria in the entire Super-Election year, no doubt about that! This will define who will serve as prime minister or Bundeskanzler for the following 5 years.
A: We have talked about the move to the right side of the political spectrum already – can this happen in this election as well?
M: Well, it is widely expected to be exactly the case: all current polls see the far-right FPÖ in first place after the September elections, most probably followed by ÖVP and SPÖ very closely together and the green party and the liberal NEOS approximately equal further behind.
A: So, does this mean that Austria will have an FPÖ led government after these elections?
M: Not necessarily, Angelika. As you know, Austria has a proportional election system that assigns seats in the parliament proportional to the percentages of votes reached in an election. This is in stark contrast to a majority voting system where the winners get disproportional high numbers of seats (as for example in the UK) or even follow a “winner-takes-it-all” system comparable to the US presidential elections where 51% of the votes means you get 100% of the seats of an electoral district.
A: But this proportional system makes it very difficult for a single party to build a government – right?
M: Absolutely! As fair as a proportional system seems, it almost always leads to lengthy and complicated negotiations to build a coalition between two or even three parties who then have a significant and reliable majority in the parliament. And these negotiations will require many compromises and thereby somewhat limit the opportunities to introduce significant and sometimes necessary changes or innovations
A: Michael, currently, Austria is led by a coalition of the peoples party and the green party. What are the chances that this is going to continue for the coming term?
M: Based on the most recent polls, the 2 parties together would not have a qualifying majority in the new parliament anymore and therefore a repetition of the current coalition does not seem viable….. apart from all the internal issues and recent quarrels between the two governing parties that seem to make a continuation very unlikely at the moment.
A: So what do you see as the most probable scenario after the elections?
M: Well, per protocol the Austrian President asks the leader of the strongest party to build a new government. This is not obligatory but was always the case in the past 80 years. So, if the polls are right, this would then be the FPÖ who is predicted to get approx. 30% of the votes. The leader of the FPÖ then would need to go into negotiations with other parties who made it into the parliament (there is a 4% threshold for parties to get into the Austrian parliament). And here is the problem……
A: ….that nobody wants to go into a coalition with the FPÖ?
M: At least this is what all other parties strictly state at the moment – they would not support an FPÖ-led government.
A: What would happen then?
M: The leader of the winning party would need to go back to the President and tell him that the attempt to build a government was unsuccessful. The president then would ask the leader of the second ranked party to try to establish the new government and so on – until we either have in fact a government that has a majority in the parliament, or a so-called minority government is established. Such a government would seek for varying majorities in the parliament for each legislative activity they plan – a very tedious and complicated form of administration that very often fails pretty soon. The ultimate option would then be to call for re-elections and hope for a clearer result then….
A: So, what combinations or coalitions are deemed possible at the moment?
M: Technically and mathematically, a coalition between FPÖ and either ÖVP or SPÖ would reach a qualifying majority based on current polls (assuming 30% for FPÖ and approx. 20% each for SPÖ and for ÖVP). However, both, Social Democrats as well as Peoples Party, currently rule out a coalition with the FPÖ. Whether this still holds true after the election (especially for the ÖVP) needs to be seen.
A: In all other cases there would be the need for a 3-party coalition?
M: Exactly! And this 3-partite coalition would most probably need both, ÖVP and SPÖ and then either the green party or the NEOS to get a majority. A center-left coalition between SPÖ, Green Party and NEOS would – based on current polls - most probably not reach a majority.
A: There will be a handful of other – smaller – parties on the ballot as well – will they possibly have an impact?
M: 2 of them might make an impact – the afore mentioned communist party and the so-called beer-party. The big question is whether they can clear the 4% threshold to get into the parliament or not. If yes, it will become even harder for the other parties to build a coalition as they altogether will have fewer seats in the parliament. If they cannot clear the 4% hurdle, their seats will go proportionally to the parties who are in the parliament – this might make it bit easier then to form a coalition.
A: So overall in a nutshell: this is going to be a high-suspense time in the political fall in Austria this year – right?
M: Absolutely! And we might see negotiations lasting pretty long, even towards the end of the year to build a reliable government….
A: Is this going to influence the remaining 2 federal elections later in the year in Vorarlberg and Styria?
M: It definitely will influence those as some parties will have a significant momentum from the national election and others will sort of struggle with less favorable results…. I think it is very difficult to predict potential outcomes here at the moment….
A: Michael, as always – thanks so much for this deep insight into the Austrian politics and thanks also for the extra-round into the EU election 2024. I think this is great information for our listeners. BUT – finally – there is a pink elephant in the room and I just can’t ignore it: we cannot talk about a super-election year of 2024 without speculating about what is going to happen in November in the United States.
M: I was trying so hard to hide the elephant in order to get around that question……
A: Sorry I can still see it in the corner! No excuses!!
M: Ok, let’s try - today, Monday, 08th of July 2024 I would say the momentum is clearly with Donald Trump and the republican party. Most recent supreme court rulings and the TV confrontation with the subsequent discussion about Joe Biden’s suitability for another term has strengthened the position of the GOP in many crucial swing states that are decisive in the US elections. If the election was tomorrow, I think the Donald would make it for his second term. But I believe there is still ample time for the Democrats to turn it around and finally I believe it will be a question of mobilization of the voter’s bases to actually go out and vote. And to be very frank, I still hope that whoever might finally be the democratic candidate will in the end make it into the white house!
A: Thanks Michael. Last time, you shared your favorite location – a restaurant in the Viennese Woods called Häuserl am Stoan- with us. I am quite sure this is not the only place in Vienna you can recommend – do you have another hot spot for our listeners today?
M: Sure Angelika – it is summer, it is hot – and you want to go for a swim in the city! There are several public pools in Vienna and all of them are nice and super refreshing – but I would like to point out the so-called Krapfenwald Bath in the 19th district. Again – a location in the Viennese woods (you may see a pattern here) but with an incredibly nice view over Vienna and a super refreshing pool. Beautiful lawn and plenty of huge old trees that provide shady places to rest – pure summer feeling with a view!
A: Ahhhh – I could need a round of swimming in the Krapfenwald Pool right now! Thanks so much again!
What we learned today:
2024 is a super election year, not only in Austria but also globally.
There are 6 elections in Austria, including nation wide one like the EU election and the Nationalratswahl to build a new parliament and government for the next 5-years term in Austria.
EU wide and as well as in Austria, we saw a tendency towards right-wing parties so far.
The next government in Austria will have toe a coalition between either 2 or 3 parties and it might get quite difficult and time consuming to form such a coalition.
Thanks for listening!