CropGPT - Sugar

The weekly report on the global Sugar market for week 20. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This week’s CropGPT podcast provides a structured overview of key developments shaping the global sugar market, with a focus on production trends, policy impacts, and trade shifts.
  • India: In Visakhapatnam District, sugarcane cultivation has declined significantly—from 4,500 to under 3,000 hectares—following the closure of the Pemasengi Cooperative Sugar Mill and the NCS Sugar Factory due to outdated equipment and financial constraints. Local leaders are calling for government intervention to modernize the facilities and restore rural employment. Nationally, efforts to raise ethanol blending in petrol to 30% face obstacles from declining sugarcane yields caused by disease and erratic weather. While the fair remunerative price for sugarcane has been increased, balancing sugar and ethanol production remains a challenge.
  • Brazil: The Center-South region reported a steep 49.35% year-on-year drop in sugarcane milling due to adverse weather, leading to a 53.79% fall in sugar output and a 35.37% drop in ethanol production. These declines have contributed to a 3% rise in global sugar prices on exchanges in New York and London. Additional market pressures stem from rising crude oil prices and a stronger Brazilian real, which may incentivize mills to shift production toward ethanol over exports.
  • Ukraine: Ukrainian sugar producers are targeting growth in the MENA region, which already accounts for 90% of the country’s exports, to offset EU quota restrictions. Government support is viewed as vital to help Ukraine develop structured trade channels and establish itself as a more consistent global supplier, despite currently holding only a 0.2% share in the global sugar trade.
  • Global Outlook: Market conditions vary widely, with production forecasts influenced by weather variability, policy changes, and energy-linked demand shifts. Brazil’s output drop and India’s evolving ethanol strategy are particularly impactful in shaping international supply and pricing dynamics.

What is CropGPT - Sugar?

Sugar news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global sugar market for 05/18/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. In Visayanagaram District, India, the recent shutdown of sugar mills, specifically the Pemasengi Cooperative Sugar Mill and the NCS Sugar Factory, has significantly reduced sugarcane cultivation from 4,500 to under 3,000 hectares. The closures result from outdated equipment and financial difficulties impacting local employment and economy. Local leaders are pushing for government intervention to revive these mills, aiming to enhance rural economic conditions and restore jobs for nearly 300 employees.

Speaker 1:

Proposals for modernization could boost both direct and indirect employment opportunities. Turning to Brazil, the Center South region faces a drastic decline in sugarcane production due to adverse weather, marking a 49.35% drop in sugarcane milling from the previous year. Consequently, sugar production has fallen by 53.79%, with ethanol production also down by 35.37%. This has contributed to a 3% rise in global sugar prices on major stock exchanges in New York and London. The dynamics are further influenced by rising crude oil prices and the strengthening of the Brazilian real, which discourages sugar exports and might pivot mills towards ethanol production for economic gains.

Speaker 1:

In India, the government's initiative to increase ethanol blending in petrol to 30% seeks to reduce fossil fuel dependence and cut oil imports. However, this presents challenges, given the decline in sugarcane yields due to disease and variable weather conditions. Despite this, the fair remunerative price for sugarcane has been raised to support farmers, resulting in higher domestic sugar prices. The balance between allocating sugarcane for ethanol or consumer sugar remains a key issue, with alternative ethanol sources, such as grains, being examined to meet ambitious targets. On the Ukrainian front, sugar producers are focusing on expanding their reach into the MENA region, which constitutes 90% of their sugar exports.

Speaker 1:

This strategy aims to counter European quota limitations and bolster Ukraine's minimal 0.2% contribution to the global sugar trade. Government backing is crucial for developing new markets and creating organized trade hubs to enhance Ukraine's position as a consistent supplier amid global demand for quality food products. Globally, sugar market scenarios exhibit variations, with fluctuations in both declining and increasing production forecasts linked to weather conditions, government policies, and market needs. Particularly, Brazil's production swings, and India's potential rise in production, considerably influence global supply and price strategies. Observing these elements remains essential for industry stakeholders to adeptly manage the complexities inherent in the global sugar trade.

Speaker 1:

Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the sugar market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.