The SpaceX Investment Thesis: Where We Are Now

Today we're following up on SpaceX’s public debut, its sharp rise in valuation, and whether the move signals a major opportunity or an AI bubble. With the small share float, the upcoming unlock schedule, and the possible impact of added supply on volatility, the stakes are only going to get higher.

We also touch on SpaceX’s reported $60 billion acquisition of Cursor and its connection to AI development... And the big debate: is SpaceX better suited for short-term traders or long-term holders?

------
🌌 LIMITLESS HQ ⬇️

NEWSLETTER:    https://limitlessft.substack.com/
FOLLOW ON X:   https://x.com/LimitlessFT
SPOTIFY:             https://open.spotify.com/show/5oV29YUL8AzzwXkxEXlRMQ
APPLE:                 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/limitless-podcast/id1813210890
RSS FEED:           https://limitlessft.substack.com/

------
TIMESTAMPS

0:00 SpaceX IPO Shockwave
2:31 Massive Unlock Ahead
6:38 Cursor Deal Explained
9:51 Float and Sell Pressure
13:25 Who Sells First?
15:24 Six-Month Price Outlook
18:24 Long-Term Bull Case
20:26 Trillion Dollar Revenue
22:11 Elon’s Bigger Vision
26:35 Competitors and Closing Thoughts

------
RESOURCES

Josh: https://x.com/JoshKale

Ejaaz: https://x.com/cryptopunk7213

------
Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

Creators and Guests

Host

Ejaaz Ahamadeen

Host

Josh Kale

What is Limitless: An AI Podcast?

Exploring the frontiers of Technology and AI

Ejaaz:
Four days. That's how long SpaceX has been a public company.

Ejaaz:
And in those four days, it's broken just about every single IPO record that there's ever been.

Ejaaz:
They blew past Amazon and Microsoft's valuation, reaching a $3 trillion valuation.

Ejaaz:
It is the fourth most valuable company in the world.

Ejaaz:
But Elon also became the world's first trillionaire. He made more money in one

Ejaaz:
day than Warren Buffett has made in his entire life. Just absolutely insane.

Ejaaz:
The stock itself, Off the price is already 50% above its IPO price,

Ejaaz:
and they've already made their first acquisition, $60 billion to acquire Cursor

Ejaaz:
to become the number one frontier AI lab

Ejaaz:
it's not all unstoppable for

Ejaaz:
SpaceX right now. Only 4% of the stock supply is available to purchase.

Ejaaz:
And the company is valued at 107x its earnings. This is the largest gap that

Ejaaz:
we've seen for any Mag 7 company or top Fortune 500 company.

Ejaaz:
And there's an aggressive unlock schedule, which we'll get on later in the episode.

Ejaaz:
But the number one question that's on my mind, and I'm sure a lot of your minds

Ejaaz:
is, is SpaceX the investment of the century? Or is this the strongest signal that we in an AI bubble.

Josh:
Well, according to Elon, it is. He just posted that they're going to have a

Josh:
trillion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade.

Josh:
That is going to be a tremendous amount of upside. And retail seems to agree.

Josh:
I was looking at this chart just before we started recording that showed over

Josh:
the last two trading sessions, retail investors bought nearly as much SpaceX

Josh:
as every other single US stock combined.

Josh:
And it's been amazing. The first day of trading, it was up, what is it, 20%?

Josh:
Second day, 20%. Third day, 5%. Today, as we're recording, this is up another 5%.

Josh:
The thing has been up only. It eclipsed a $3 trillion market cap,

Josh:
making it the fourth most valuable company in the world over Microsoft.

Josh:
I mean, look at this chart. It's crazy. We have NVIDIA, Alphabet,

Josh:
which is Google, Apple, SpaceX, and Microsoft in the top five.

Josh:
It's unbelievable that this new company comes on the scene and is immediately among the top five.

Josh:
And it has been doing really well for good reason. There's a very strong outlook

Josh:
on revenue, on guidance, on the actual company.

Josh:
But man, like you said, Ejaz, it's very expensive and there's a lot to get into

Josh:
with this as it relates to how expensive this is but it's a double-sided sword,

Josh:
because this premium that the stock has allows it to do really interesting things

Josh:
like for example purchase a company for 60 billion dollars effectively for free

Josh:
and that has some upside for the stock as well so there's a lot of really exciting

Josh:
things that have been happening with spacex it's doing well i think the answer

Josh:
that i want to give by at the end of this episode is,

Josh:
Should you be investing in this now? And what is our kind of forward outlook?

Ejaaz:
So let's get into what exactly happened. On Friday, they IPO'd 555.6 million

Ejaaz:
shares were released for trading.

Ejaaz:
That's around 4.3 to 4.7 of the entire share supply. So not that much.

Ejaaz:
And we'll get into why that might be problematic later, but at a fixed price of $135.

Ejaaz:
Now, immediately upon listing, it hit $160.

Ejaaz:
And by the end of trading on Friday, I think it was sitting just above $200.

Ejaaz:
And then like you mentioned, it's been on a subsequent run that has put it just

Ejaaz:
around 50% above its IPO $135 price.

Ejaaz:
Now, this is absolutely insane, because as I mentioned earlier,

Ejaaz:
There's a large discrepancy between what SpaceX generates as a company.

Ejaaz:
Just last year, they generated around $15 to $18 billion.

Ejaaz:
Now, it's positioned above Amazon and Microsoft, but above Amazon,

Ejaaz:
which comparably generated, I believe, $770 billion last year,

Ejaaz:
of which $80 billion was actual revenue that they earned.

Ejaaz:
Compare that to SpaceX, they lost $4.9 billion.

Ejaaz:
So the multiples are kind of like reaching for a moment, but it was the most

Ejaaz:
insane wealth-creating event ever.

Ejaaz:
Over 4,400 SpaceX employees became millionaires, with I think well over 100

Ejaaz:
of them earning $100 million just from this singular event.

Ejaaz:
Elon himself, as I mentioned, became the world's first trillionaire.

Ejaaz:
And of course, his wealth is mixed up in a lot of different companies.

Ejaaz:
But now SpaceX, his baby, formerly it was Tesla, has now become his main a source

Ejaaz:
of value creation. So the question in everyone's mind is, what are you going

Ejaaz:
to do with all this money?

Ejaaz:
Now, there was an option that we spoke about a few episodes ago around SpaceX

Ejaaz:
potentially acquiring this different company that will allow them to leapfrog

Ejaaz:
and become a frontier AI lab. Turns out that's exactly what Elon did.

Josh:
Yeah, it's pretty amazing how they effectively got it for free.

Josh:
When I think about acquisitions that were made, we can remember the ex-acquisition

Josh:
of Twitter at the time. Yeah. And how it was considered to be this humongous

Josh:
amount of money for 40-something billion dollars that was spent.

Josh:
Cursor just got acquired for 60 billion dollars. And we have to give congratulations

Josh:
in order first to the four co-founders who are now worth over 5.5 billion dollars each.

Josh:
Allegedly, we have a great photo, actually, of them we could show.

Josh:
Because these are these are not they're not like grown-ups these like young

Josh:
people they're in their 20s these.

Ejaaz:
Are kids they're kids and

Josh:
They're all multi-billionaires so to these four people on the screen congratulations

Josh:
you have permanently escaped the underclass for life and for probably the next

Josh:
50 generations of life you created an incredible product congratulations,

Josh:
so elon bought it and the way that they bought it was really interesting and

Josh:
also just some backstory for those that don't know cursor is that thing that

Josh:
we talk about a lot called the harness It is basically the,

Josh:
operating system, the body that will embody the Grok and the XAI and probably

Josh:
cursor models in the future.

Josh:
So cursor, incredible company, really a remarkable comeback.

Josh:
And Elon essentially was able to acquire them for free. How?

Josh:
Well, if you remember back earlier this year in April, SpaceX locked up an option

Josh:
to either pay $10 billion for a partnership or buy the whole company for $60 billion.

Josh:
At the time, SpaceX stock was not that high. It was still private.

Josh:
It was maybe sub $100 at the time or just above $100, whatever it may be.

Josh:
Fast forward to today, that stock is now worth $211. Each stock is worth so

Josh:
much more than it was at the time.

Josh:
What effectively what that means is because they're buying this in all stock,

Josh:
it allows them to basically just grant a significantly less amount of stock

Josh:
to these founders because the price is so much higher. So that option that they

Josh:
paid for earlier in the year is really paying off dividends.

Josh:
And the result is that they got a really steep discount on buying cursor because

Josh:
if they would have bought it just a couple months earlier, the price would have

Josh:
been over double effectively.

Ejaaz:
Yeah. So Elon basically bought this amazing frontier AI lab with an inflated

Ejaaz:
currency that was SpaceX stock. And the way he was able to do this was because

Ejaaz:
there's only a 4% float supply for the shares itself.

Ejaaz:
Now, I just want to talk about the option very quickly.

Ejaaz:
It was $10 billion that Cursor would pay them if they decided to not acquire Cursor.

Ejaaz:
And they had 30 days. SpaceX had 30 days from the start of the IPO to decide

Ejaaz:
whether they wanted to acquire Cursor or not for an all-star transaction or whatever that might be.

Ejaaz:
Elon exercised that within day four, or actually day three. That was yesterday.

Ejaaz:
This happened yesterday.

Ejaaz:
So he just acted very quickly. And the reason for this is it's not just Cursor's

Ejaaz:
harness on its own. So for any of you who have used Cursor, it's probably the

Ejaaz:
first product that you interacted with to start Vibe coding different types of products.

Ejaaz:
It's the thing that arguably made Vibe coding a very viral thing.

Ejaaz:
At one point, Cursor, the product itself, accounted for 40% of Anthropix coding

Ejaaz:
usage for Claude specifically. This was before Claude code became like a viral sensation itself.

Ejaaz:
So Cursor at the time, I think, was making around 1 billion ARR,

Ejaaz:
and now it's like making between 2 to 3 billion ARR.

Ejaaz:
So a really good purchase. But the point is, Elon was able to acquire it using

Ejaaz:
stock at an inflated price, which effectively makes it free. Now, get this.

Ejaaz:
$60 billion that Elon just spent to acquire this AI company is more money than

Ejaaz:
Elon spent on SpaceX for rockets over its entire lifetime.

Ejaaz:
So SpaceX, the company that was built to create rockets and effectively become

Ejaaz:
the highway to space, just spent the most amount of money acquiring an AI lab.

Ejaaz:
Now, obviously, this makes sense because they merged with XAI.

Ejaaz:
The whole idea is to put data centers out in space to train Grok,

Ejaaz:
which is contained within XAI.

Ejaaz:
Cursor has an amazing product that basically allows Grok to become a super coding

Ejaaz:
model and allow it to compete with Anthropic.

Ejaaz:
They already proved this with the recent Composer 2.5 model, which Cursor released.

Ejaaz:
And Michael Truel, the founder of Cursor, actually spoke on a panel or on a

Ejaaz:
presentation yesterday where he said

Ejaaz:
they've actually trained a foundational model that is releasing in the next

Ejaaz:
few weeks that's been trained from scratch typically cursors models have been

Ejaaz:
fine-tuned on top of a chinese model but trained from scratch and that's definitely grok itself so

Ejaaz:
tldr space is going to come up with a frontier ai model after this acquisition

Ejaaz:
released in a few weeks so it is

Ejaaz:
a huge win to acquire a company

Josh:
Like this yeah and that's not even the most interesting thing about it like

Josh:
it's amazing how many different pillars that exist with this company and i think

Josh:
one of the things you mentioned was how much money they spent and how much money they raise.

Josh:
And I want to highlight a few key numbers with the cumulative spend versus the IPO raise.

Josh:
They raised $85 billion in this IPO.

Josh:
For reference, they spent $15 billion on the entire Starship program.

Josh:
When you think about the Starlink program that is running a global constellation

Josh:
of satellites that is beaming down internet to earth with lasers,

Josh:
they spent $20 billion on that.

Josh:
The total between Starship, which is the Martian rocket that's going to go build

Josh:
this base on moon, and Starlink, the global internet provider, is $35 billion.

Josh:
They raised almost triple that in money.

Josh:
And that means that the scale and the scope of what they're going after is just

Josh:
so huge. But before we get into the grand scheme of things, we have to talk

Josh:
about the price now because that's what everyone wants to know about.

Josh:
That's what all the interest is about.

Josh:
And I think to do that, we should start with the share float,

Josh:
which is an important thing that I'm not sure a lot of people have really kind

Josh:
of focused on or are really aware of. So basically, when a company is traded,

Josh:
there are a certain amount of shares that are available to be traded on a public marketplace.

Josh:
In the case of SpaceX, this number is actually very low. It comes out to about

Josh:
4.2 to 4.3% of the total shares being actually tradable.

Josh:
What does this look like? Well, yesterday during the trading session,

Josh:
I think half 50% of all of the shares traded hands in a single trading session.

Josh:
There's not a lot of liquidity, or I shouldn't say that there's,

Josh:
there's a lot of liquidity, but there's not a lot of shares to be pushed around.

Josh:
Meaning if there is more demand, it is able to push the price higher,

Josh:
much quicker because there's less of that float that it needs to churn through.

Josh:
As a result, the stock has done very well and hasn't met much resistance.

Josh:
I mean, every day it's been seemingly up only.

Josh:
When does this change, is the question, because right now there's a very little

Josh:
amount. There's a lot of hype and demand, but there is a very clear and perhaps

Josh:
concerning unlock schedule in which that float is going to grow to be much larger than 4%.

Ejaaz:
Yeah. Listen, like I'm a SpaceX bull. I bought stock at IPO.

Ejaaz:
I will be holding this stock for a long time. I believe in Elon being able to

Ejaaz:
pull this off, but you can't ignore the mechanics.

Ejaaz:
Now, I have a visual on the screen right now. If you're listening to this, I'll explain it to you.

Ejaaz:
Right now, around 4.2% of the stock supply is available to trade.

Ejaaz:
So that's what is available on the market. That's why the price is so volatile

Ejaaz:
and is going either up or down, mainly up over the last few days.

Ejaaz:
Over the next 90 days, 4.4x, the entire current flow, so that's 2.4 billion

Ejaaz:
shares will get released onto the market in a staggered way.

Ejaaz:
And this releases from friends and family that invested earlier,

Ejaaz:
as well as early investors that such as funds or institutional funds that got

Ejaaz:
access to invest in SpaceX's earlier rounds.

Ejaaz:
Now, over 180 days, which is

Ejaaz:
basically six months, you'll have a total of 56% of the supply released.

Ejaaz:
So that is this year, by the end of this year, you have an additional 56% of

Ejaaz:
the current float that is being traded.

Ejaaz:
That is TLDR, a ton of And so the main question on everyone's mind is,

Ejaaz:
where's this money going to come from?

Ejaaz:
You need money to absorb that supply release in order to maintain the current

Ejaaz:
price that we're looking at.

Ejaaz:
So if we're looking at like, say, a $220 price per share, you're going to need

Ejaaz:
multiples more of the current money that is in the supply right now.

Ejaaz:
Just prop up that price, not even just send it higher. So the concern here is

Ejaaz:
this is a very abnormal unlock schedule.

Ejaaz:
This is not particularly normal. I'll show the step ladder over here.

Ejaaz:
Typically, when a company IPOs, they IPO around 40% to 50% of the available

Ejaaz:
supply, and then the rest unlocks after a one-year cliff. That's typically the

Ejaaz:
standard that everyone's shown.

Ejaaz:
With Elon's IPO, with the SpaceX IPO, everything has pretty much changed.

Ejaaz:
For the unlock schedule, it happens a lot sooner and a lot more frequently.

Ejaaz:
Equally on the buy side of things, and I think this is important to point out,

Ejaaz:
Elon has been able to wrangle a very effective,

Ejaaz:
call it a scheme, where you have a lot of the pension funds,

Ejaaz:
the S&P 500 purchases, the people that buy these indexes from pension funds

Ejaaz:
and other sort of instruments that will have this constant buying pressure on SpaceX's IPO.

Ejaaz:
So the balance of these two will effectively determine what that ultimate price is going to be.

Ejaaz:
But right now, it's looking pretty intimidating.

Josh:
Yeah, well, to say that it needs to absorb the sell pressure is implying that

Josh:
there will be sell pressure. And I think it's also important to know who the

Josh:
people are who are currently locked up.

Josh:
If your shares are locked up, you are an insider, you are early in SpaceX, you are in the green.

Josh:
So there's a high probability that there is some sort of incentive and urge

Josh:
to want to sell to take your money off the table.

Josh:
And by December 9th of this year, about 60% of all the shares will become available,

Josh:
with the remaining 50% or 40% being available in June of 2027.

Josh:
So there is a very clear projected path to a lot of potential sell pressure.

Josh:
Now, I think it's important to note the types of people that are invested in

Josh:
SpaceX and the people that share the vision of SpaceX being very bullish and very long term.

Josh:
A lot of these investors invested in Elon, the founder, they invested in SpaceX,

Josh:
the deca trillion dollar company, not the two to three trillion dollar company.

Josh:
So while there is going to be selling pressure, there's certainly a case to

Josh:
be made that a lot of these early supporters still believe that they're early

Josh:
and are using this as an option to just continue to hold to not sell so while

Josh:
there will be sell pressure it is not necessarily going to be

Josh:
a bad thing it is possible not necessarily and elon seems to be fueling this

Josh:
fire he just posted a few days ago that spacex might be able to reach approximately

Josh:
one trillion dollars in revenue,

Josh:
by 2030. And he would be surprised if it were not above $1 trillion by 2031.

Josh:
A trillion dollars in revenue is unheard of.

Josh:
No one makes a trillion dollars in revenue. If SpaceX just trades at 10 times

Josh:
their revenue, they're trading at a $10 trillion valuation. That gets you there in four years.

Josh:
So there is this very clear bull case based on these pillars that they have

Josh:
between Starlink and Starship and selling their AI compute and just owning their

Josh:
own AI infrastructure through the acquisition of cursor and through

Josh:
their data centers that they have that makes it incredibly compelling for people who

Josh:
maybe if you're investing over the next six months could be rocky but that like

Josh:
multi-year trajectory still seems to be like very optimistic and very bullish.

Ejaaz:
Yeah yes and no like i do want to try and like ground it a little bit which

Ejaaz:
is like okay like let's go back to this chart right effectively on like day

Ejaaz:
one you've got around like 3.7 billion dollars worth of sell pressure.

Ejaaz:
This is like after that initial 90-day period, right?

Ejaaz:
These guys, these early investors that you mentioned, I agree are long-term

Ejaaz:
holders, but they're also up over 100x.

Ejaaz:
If you're up over 100x, you're probably cashing some of this out.

Ejaaz:
Now, there are ways that they would cash this out. Maybe they don't sell the equity itself.

Ejaaz:
Maybe they borrow against it. There's loads of fancy ways to manage your wealth in that way.

Ejaaz:
And these people will probably exercise some version of that.

Ejaaz:
But I do think there will be some form of sell pressure. And then the main question,

Ejaaz:
therefore, on my mind is, is there enough hands to exchange that?

Ejaaz:
Now, initially, I think actually there will be.

Ejaaz:
I think there's a lot of retail demand for this thing. I think there was something

Ejaaz:
like $250 billion worth of purchasing power from retail alone,

Ejaaz:
just through the likes of Robinhood and all the retail trading accounts from banks on day one.

Ejaaz:
So there's that. And then there's also the constant buying pressure from

Ejaaz:
The institutions that buy S&P 500 indexes and stuff like that.

Ejaaz:
So I think it'll balance out eventually, but there is an abnormal amount of

Ejaaz:
potential selling pressure that will come from some of these early investors.

Ejaaz:
And I don't think it's as easy as saying like all of them are going to hold

Ejaaz:
when they're up like massively. So I just want to kind of like put that out

Ejaaz:
there. I'm not a bear in any way, but there are some contingency plans that

Ejaaz:
probably need to be made.

Josh:
Well, okay, that's fair. so in six months from now i guess we could look at

Josh:
this like there's two types of investors maybe we could address here the the

Josh:
shorter term traders that are looking to make money before the end of the year

Josh:
and then there's the longer term traders that are looking on a five to ten year,

Josh:
kind of scope so for the six month traders for the people that want to buy a

Josh:
really nice gift for christmas maybe buy a brand new performance tesla tax should they buy yeah yeah,

Josh:
should they buy spacex stock in order to get there do we think it's going to

Josh:
be a bullish a positive six months.

Ejaaz:
Yeah honestly i think there's so much demand for this thing that people will

Ejaaz:
just buy it anyway, because the people that are buying it now are probably there

Ejaaz:
for the long term, they know that they weren't able to get involved in like

Ejaaz:
some of the private deals.

Ejaaz:
I also think people are going to be staring at the unlock schedules.

Ejaaz:
And they're going to think, hmm, okay, I've got until this time until this amount

Ejaaz:
unlocks, I'll play the game up until there.

Ejaaz:
So I think more of the short term minded things that maybe want to make a trade

Ejaaz:
and like, be able to afford a Tesla by buying SpaceX stock probably have a good odds of doing that.

Josh:
And then you have to assume that the unlock schedule may get front run.

Josh:
People are all aware of it. Everyone's watching these dates.

Josh:
It's going to be an interesting game theory dynamic applied to that,

Josh:
but it seems like things are pretty stable. I mean, this is very expensive.

Josh:
I could very easily see a world in which it trades somewhat near the IPO price,

Josh:
like sub 200 for, for a while, while it just kind of clears through insurance

Josh:
that, but the longer term, like someone who wants to own this through 2030,

Josh:
say for the next four years, what do you think about that?

Ejaaz:
Oh i mean it's the same thesis that i would have with my investment which is

Ejaaz:
like i think overall spacex will be up but again

Ejaaz:
it it not everyone can hold through volatility right like if you see if you're

Ejaaz:
an amazon holder right let's let's take the company that spacex literally just

Ejaaz:
surpassed on day two right um

Ejaaz:
if you've been holding it for the last three years you've been in utter hell

Ejaaz:
right uh but the idea is if you look at amazon's fundamentals it is absolutely

Ejaaz:
killing it way more than SpaceX, right?

Ejaaz:
I mentioned earlier, $700 billion last year in revenue, and they made about

Ejaaz:
$80 billion of actual profit off of that. SpaceX comparably made a fraction

Ejaaz:
of that and had a net loss, right?

Ejaaz:
So the fundamentals don't really make sense, but the people who held Amazon

Ejaaz:
is currently down more than the people who bought SpaceX on day one.

Ejaaz:
So that kind of dichotomy is kind of crazy to understand. And maybe it's just

Ejaaz:
up to market dynamics and public interpretation.

Ejaaz:
But that being said, if you're on a long term, if you're looking at fundamentals,

Ejaaz:
if you believe that SpaceX will bring the cost of traveling out to space to

Ejaaz:
200K per launch, then it's an easy bet. It's a long-term hold.

Ejaaz:
But it's whether you can handle the volatility.

Josh:
That's the main thing. That's kind of the advice that I've been giving to friends.

Josh:
A lot of people have been reaching out and asking like, hey,

Josh:
what do you think about SpaceX stock? And I tell them, if you are comfortable...

Josh:
Investing long-term and just putting your money away and slowly building a position

Josh:
or quickly building a position in a company that you believe in,

Josh:
then it's a great investment, a remarkable investment even.

Josh:
Because I mean, companies at the scale continue to do pretty well.

Josh:
And when you think about the companies at the scale and who they're run by,

Josh:
there's, there's none with the more cracked engineering team,

Josh:
leadership team, entrepreneurship team, then SpaceX. When you look at these

Josh:
top five, it's like Microsoft.

Josh:
Are you really more bullish on Microsoft than SpaceX, even though they're priced

Josh:
the same? Like when you look at Microsoft, what they're working on.

Ejaaz:
Like Boomer Tech, Josh, you know this now.

Josh:
Yeah, it's like, really when you look at these companies, which companies are

Josh:
going to change the world five years from now and which companies are not?

Josh:
And if I'm just comparing based on market caps, the answer is certainly not

Josh:
Microsoft. It looks a lot more like SpaceX. And there's a chart that I wanted to show.

Josh:
It looks a little funky on the screen share. You're gonna have to work with me here.

Josh:
But basically there is this presentation by this guy named Thomas LaFont. He's an investor.

Josh:
I saw this on the All In podcast where he was talking about the probability

Josh:
of a company continuing to do well once they reach a certain valuation.

Josh:
So in the case of a unicorn, the odds of a unicorn going from a $1 billion company

Josh:
to a decacorn, a $10 billion company is 8%.

Josh:
It's possible, but not probable.

Josh:
The same doubles in the case that a decacorn goes to a centacorn.

Josh:
So if a company is worth $10 billion, the odds of it going to $100 billion, a 10x multiple.

Josh:
Go from 8% to 13%. And then from Decacorn, which is 10 billion to a hundred

Josh:
billion, Ascenticorn, they almost triple and 30%.

Josh:
So one in three companies who reach $10 billion will make it to a hundred billion

Josh:
dollars. And you could see how this chart kind of trends in a very clear trajectory

Josh:
where it's nearly exponential.

Josh:
And you have to assume if a company can reach a trillion dollars in market cap,

Josh:
the probability of it hitting a decatrillion dollars is probably double it's

Josh:
at least 60 so that means over one in every two companies that have hit

Josh:
one trillion dollars in value are likely to hit 10 trillion dollars in value

Josh:
and when you look at the companies that are centicorns today is that what they're called like

Josh:
trillion dollar companies there's not a ton of them and when you look at the

Josh:
ones that do exist the ones that are most interesting that are most compelling

Josh:
to look forward to in terms of

Josh:
products that they're going to make are companies like spacex are companies

Josh:
like tesla who are going to revolutionize what the physical world looks like

Josh:
in a way that we've never seen before.

Josh:
And that's why I'm particularly excited. That's why I am recommending to my

Josh:
friends like, hey, not financial advice, but I'm very bullish.

Josh:
I'm all in on this company for the next, however, pretty much an infinite amount

Josh:
of time until things change.

Josh:
And that's kind of the reasoning is there's just a high probability that the

Josh:
success they've had will continue.

Ejaaz:
I think with a lot of these companies, it's also

Ejaaz:
So it's just time-based, and it's based on whether they're going to execute on the entire vision.

Ejaaz:
Like, a lot of us don't actually accurately predict what the world's going to

Ejaaz:
look like six months from now.

Ejaaz:
Like, who knows? Like, we could have AI models that cost a fraction of what

Ejaaz:
they do today that are frontier that would undercut Anthropic and OpenAI and

Ejaaz:
would kind of blow this entire AI bubble up. There's so many different moving factors.

Ejaaz:
Now, with Elon specifically, and I'm talking about Elon and his company,

Ejaaz:
so not just SpaceX, but we're talking about Tesla,

Ejaaz:
they have a huge collective vision to not only build out the number one AI company

Ejaaz:
and AI model, but to also own the infrastructure and highway to space, as well as the

Ejaaz:
world's largest gigafab chip fab on earth,

Ejaaz:
as well as manage all the humanoid robotic side of things as well,

Ejaaz:
the physical manifestation of AI.

Ejaaz:
Now, those are kind of vaguely the correct ambitions to kind of carve out what

Ejaaz:
the world's going to look like in the future.

Ejaaz:
Now, can one man pull it off between two or three companies?

Ejaaz:
That remains to be seen. His track record so far has proven that he is able

Ejaaz:
to scale hardware from zero to one.

Ejaaz:
He has yet to prove it with software specifically. And this cursor acquisition,

Ejaaz:
I believe, is going to be a good test of that.

Ejaaz:
And then following that, it's whether he is able to merge all of these together.

Ejaaz:
A lot of that is going to be based on time. And so unfortunately or fortunately,

Ejaaz:
a lot of this is going to be speculation. It's going to be hearsay until we actually see the goods.

Ejaaz:
And we're not going to see some of the goods until as early as maybe a few weeks

Ejaaz:
for the new crop model, but a few years in terms of space travel,

Ejaaz:
putting AI data centers in space, and training frontier models for a fraction of the cost.

Ejaaz:
So it's going to be a time thing. If you're patient, if you're a long-term investor,

Ejaaz:
then buying SpaceX stock at any price right now kind of makes sense.

Ejaaz:
But if you want to

Ejaaz:
I'm not again, not investment advice, but the way that I would kind of like

Ejaaz:
approach this is just kind of like purchasing chunks over time over the next

Ejaaz:
six months, there will be again, 54% of the supply to 54 to 60% of the supply

Ejaaz:
unlocked by the end of the year.

Ejaaz:
That's a lot of supply, there'll be a lot of volatility.

Ejaaz:
Right now we've seen the volatility go up for the price, but it'll equally go

Ejaaz:
down as well is my expectation. So just be careful out there and you know,

Ejaaz:
make sound decisions. That's it.

Josh:
Yeah, I'm gonna be hyperbolic again, like I have been and just continue to say

Josh:
that Tesla and SpaceX will be the most valuable company in the world.

Josh:
It's like, I'm looking at this list right now and there's NVIDIA,

Josh:
Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, SpaceX, TSMC, Broadcom, Saudi Aramco, Samsung, and Tesla.

Josh:
And when you think about those companies and the products they're going to make

Josh:
and the future trajectory of them, none of them are even close to one,

Josh:
the operational capability in the terms of like physical hardware.

Josh:
And then two, just in terms of leadership and what the people have actually

Josh:
been able to accomplish.

Josh:
And when you consider a world in which SpaceX and Tesla get rolled into a single

Josh:
entity, and those are competing against NVIDIA, who's currently the most valuable

Josh:
company in the world, it's like, come on, there's, it's like not even close.

Josh:
And a $10 trillion valuation in that world seems bearish.

Josh:
I'm like, 10 trillion? Dude, they're going to hit a trillion dollars in revenue

Josh:
just with one of those two companies four years from now.

Josh:
If it's trading at 100 times the revenue, that's like, I mean,

Josh:
the numbers get pretty large really quick.

Josh:
And I think this is an important thing to note that this has happened many times

Josh:
in the past. I mentioned Saudi Aramco currently sitting at number nine.

Josh:
At one point in time, it was the most valuable company in the world by far.

Josh:
And that was the ceiling of the perceived market caps that a company could reach.

Josh:
It's like, okay, Saudi Aramco is number one. Let's say Apple,

Josh:
for example, surely Apple can't be worth more than Saudi Aramco.

Josh:
They make oil, they power all the energy of the world.

Josh:
The reality is that Apple released the iPhone, Apple became the new most valuable

Josh:
company in the world, and they quadrupled Saudi Aramco.

Josh:
And the perceived ceiling of what these companies are able to reach in terms

Josh:
of market cap continues to go up as they continue to unlock new value in the world.

Josh:
And what company is more likely to unlock more value than one that is exploring

Josh:
both domestically, but also interstellarly?

Josh:
And I know it's just it's an exciting company to bet around.

Josh:
There is an incredibly compelling case for a really fun and very valuable future

Josh:
when these plans work out.

Josh:
And there's no team better equipped to actually execute on that vision.

Josh:
And that's why I cannot recommend SpaceX enough to all of my friends.

Josh:
Again, not financial advice, but like, holy shit, this is the best chance you

Josh:
have as we go into this like next generation of just like humanity in general

Josh:
reality. It's very exciting. Clearly, I'm excited. Clearly, I'm a big fan.

Josh:
I'm sure people disagree with a lot of these takes, but hey,

Josh:
come catch me in five years, buddy.

Ejaaz:
Yeah, I mean, I'm going to take not the other side of that, but I'm just going

Ejaaz:
to point out that there are names on this chart that haven't IPO'd yet.

Ejaaz:
You're going to have Anthropic. I see OpenAI is on here, but you're going to

Ejaaz:
have a ton of other Frontier AI labs that IPO soon.

Ejaaz:
Google is nowhere to be seen here, and they are currently the only vertically

Ejaaz:
integrated company that absolutely nailed distribution and the infrastructure

Ejaaz:
play itself. I think that is very slept on.

Ejaaz:
And then NVIDIA itself, I think a lot of people are counting NVIDIA as just

Ejaaz:
the GPU company, but hey, Jensen's already released his CPU line,

Ejaaz:
which he said he was never going to enter, and now he has, and now it's earning

Ejaaz:
$20 billion of revenue a year.

Ejaaz:
He's already working on the battle-tested, space-proof GPUs that he's going

Ejaaz:
to be putting in Elon's rockets to get out there. So I think there's going to

Ejaaz:
be some competitors in the future.

Ejaaz:
And it's just a matter of keeping an eye of what is going on and how it's all being executed.

Ejaaz:
Again, I think Elon is one of the best executors in the world right now.

Ejaaz:
So very bullish for all his companies.

Ejaaz:
But there'll be some competition. I don't think it'll be a clear road.

Ejaaz:
But ultimately, up only, I think.

Josh:
Yeah, well, I mean, definitely no competition in space. Blue Origin is the next

Josh:
closest. And they got a decade of cash enough to do, especially after that most recent rocket blew up.

Josh:
So in that world, at least they got their monopoly for a good bit of time.

Josh:
But I think that the consensus is generally like all of these companies are pretty remarkable.

Josh:
Like when you look at NVIDIA, Google, Apple, like there's a very clear case

Josh:
that they're going to continue to make more money as this world of abundance gets unlocked with AI.

Josh:
And there's a good chance that everything just continues to go up.

Josh:
And maybe there's certainly going to be some bumps along the way.

Josh:
But the value generation created by these companies is really staggering.

Josh:
So I think that's the update.

Josh:
That is the post SpaceX IPO clarity, perhaps. I'm serious.

Josh:
That's everything that's worth knowing. That's everything...

Josh:
I think that's been going on in

Josh:
the last week. Is there any final updates before we let everyone go here?

Ejaaz:
No, I'm excited about the new Grok model.

Ejaaz:
You know, speaking transparently, Grok has kind of fallen behind pretty massively.

Ejaaz:
And I believe like Anthropoc and OpenAI have pretty much reached escape velocity

Ejaaz:
with Fable 5 and the upcoming GPT 5.6 model.

Ejaaz:
Oh, I hope that comes soon. I know. And these models are effectively building

Ejaaz:
themselves. So once you have a model that builds itself, you know,

Ejaaz:
you kind of like run away with it. you run away with the trophy.

Ejaaz:
Grok is probably, or SpaceX AI, is probably the only company left that could

Ejaaz:
potentially join the ranks.

Ejaaz:
And they're going to do it via the curse acquisition. So I'm excited to try that model out.

Ejaaz:
For those of you who are listening to this, to Josh's relentless bullishness,

Ejaaz:
to my sobriety test, are we wrong?

Josh:
Who's wrong?

Ejaaz:
Who's right here? Come at us. Let's hear you in the comments.

Ejaaz:
Tell us if we're wrong. If you're out there and you're an absolute Elon hater

Ejaaz:
we also love and want to hear your feedback right um if you've listened to this

Ejaaz:
if you're listening to this on youtube if you listen to this on spotify apple

Ejaaz:
music wherever you're listening to it

Ejaaz:
please make sure you subscribe or that you're following us please give us a

Ejaaz:
rating however way you feel about us it helps us out pretty massively leave

Ejaaz:
us a comment as well you can do it on spotify as well um

Ejaaz:
and we have a newsletter where we post twice a week we almost have a hundred

Ejaaz:
thousand of you we post a long form essay which is like a thesis it's going out

Ejaaz:
uh today as you're listening to this episode, as well as weekly highlights at the end of the week.

Ejaaz:
But aside from that, that is all. And we will see you for our roundup.

Josh:
See you guys so much for watching. We'll see you guys next time. See you.