CropGPT - Cocoa

The weekly report on the global Cocoa market for week 50. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This episode delivers a focused analysis of the global cocoa market.
  • In Ivory Coast, despite optimal growing conditions, concerns have emerged due to logistical inefficiencies and labor shortages. These issues have contributed to a 1.8% year-over-year decline in port arrivals, raising questions about harvest timing and distribution capabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for stable or increased yields remains if these barriers are addressed.
  • Nigeria's cocoa output forecast for the 2025–26 season has been cut by 11% to 305,000 tons. This revision, driven by poor farming conditions and weak infrastructure, adds to global supply concerns and could support higher prices if the tightening trend persists. Ghana, similarly benefiting from favorable weather, faces comparable logistical hurdles.
  • Globally, the cocoa market reflects a mix of bullish and bearish indicators. The International Cocoa Organization has reported a smaller expected surplus, and U.S. inventories have fallen to an 8.75-month low. The recent inclusion of New York cocoa in the Bloomberg Commodity Index may further attract investment, reinforcing price strength. However, weak demand trends are tempering optimism, as grind figures across Asia and Europe fall and North American chocolate sales decline.
  • Finally, the European Union's postponed enforcement of its deforestation rule offers short-term supply relief but introduces uncertainty into long-term forecasts. Traders must weigh these diverse signals, with supply limitations and demand softness continuing to drive volatility in the cocoa market.

What is CropGPT - Cocoa?

Cocoa news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global cocoa market for 12/14/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. In Ivory Coast, logistical issues and labor constraints have raised concerns over the cocoa harvest, despite favorable weather conditions promoting pod development. A slight year on year decrease in cocoa port arrivals has been reported, with figures for October 1 to December 7 at 804,088 tons, marking a 1.8% decline. This drop may prompt questions about harvest timings and the efficiency of logistical processes.

Speaker 1:

However, with the optimal weather conditions in place, overcoming these challenges could lead to stable or increased yields in the coming months. In Nigeria, the cocoa production forecast for the twenty twenty five TAS-twenty six season has been revised downward by 11% to 305,000 tons. This reduction contributes to a tightening global supply outlook. The drop is attributed to unfavorable farming conditions and infrastructural challenges, adding significant pressure on the global market, and potentially supporting higher price levels if the trend continues. Ghana, like Ivory Coast, benefits from favorable weather aiding, robust pod development.

Speaker 1:

Yet, the market impact largely hinges on overcoming non climatic issues, such as logistics and labor management, throughout the season. Globally, the cocoa market is experiencing both bullish and bearish signals. The International Cocoa Organization projects a reduced surplus, and United States inventories are at an eight point seven five month low, fostering a bullish outlook. The inclusion of New York cocoa in the Bloomberg Commodity Index may also drive increased investment inflows, potentially boosting prices. Conversely, weak demand is noted, with declining grind data across Asia and Europe, along with disappointing North American chocolate sales, dampening market enthusiasm.

Speaker 1:

The European Union's delayed deforestation rule, while providing temporary supply relief, complicates future market forecasts. Overall, the cocoa market is navigating a complex scenario where supply constraints and demand weaknesses actively influence price volatilities, presenting diverse strategies for traders to consider. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the cocoa market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.