Subscribe
Share
Share
Embed
Every morning, in the time it takes to drink a coffee, Teddy walks through yesterday's markets: US indices, the Nikkei, gold, oil and Malaysia. What moved, and which way the pressure leans. Market education, not financial advice.
This is my AI voice. The script comes from my market research system, and a person checks it before it goes out. It's education, not personal investment advice.
Good morning. Teddy here. It's Monday, the second of November.
Most people look at a red Friday and assume Monday will be red too. Maybe. But that's only half the picture. Today I want to show you the other half, because this week is packed.
Let's start with what happened on Friday.
The Nasdaq fell 2.86 percent. That was its worst day since June. The S&P 500 fell 1.82 percent. The Dow fell 1.09 percent. The biggest single story was Intel. It dropped 28.58 percent in one day. That's its worst day since 1974. Why? Its revenue forecast for the next quarter came in well below what analysts expected. Amazon also slipped after missing on earnings, and the market did not like how much cash it is burning on artificial intelligence.
So the question in the room is simple. Is all this AI spending going to pay off? When enough people ask that question at the same time, tech stocks feel it first. For the Nasdaq, I'd call that big downward pressure. Not a prediction. Just where the weight leans.
Now, here's the part many people miss. Japan's Nikkei closed on Friday down 2.12 percent. But Tokyo closed before the worst of the American selling. So when Japan opens this morning, it still has to digest the rest of Friday. Keep that in mind if you watch the Nikkei.
Second topic. Oil.
While tech was falling, oil went the other way. Brent settled at 113 dollars and 43 cents a barrel. American crude settled at 104 dollars and 12 cents. In October alone, Brent rose 13.6 percent. That's four months up in a row.
The reason is the Strait of Hormuz. Ships are still being hit there. On Sunday, another vessel was struck by an unknown projectile. On Friday, a Qatari gas tanker was hit near the strait. Thankfully, all 25 crew were safe.
Over the weekend, OPEC plus met and kept December output unchanged. And Iran's foreign minister said Iran and Qatar have a plan to reopen the strait within two days, if America meets their conditions. That's a big if. Until something actually moves, oil stays under upward pressure. If that plan does move forward, the pressure can turn quickly. So watch the headlines, not just the chart.
Third topic. The Federal Reserve, and gold.
Here's where the first two topics meet. High oil feeds inflation. Inflation keeps the Fed worried. Right now, markets price roughly an 80 percent chance that the Fed raises rates in December. The Fed's target range today is 3.75 to 4 percent.
Gold usually likes uncertainty. But gold does not like rising rates. On Friday, gold futures fell 3.3 percent. Spot gold closed at 3,875 dollars an ounce, near a one-year low. Some of that was forced selling. When people lose money on tech, they sometimes sell gold to cover. So gold is under downward pressure for now. The test comes on Friday night.
Which brings me to the calendar. Four tests, back to back.
Tuesday, around 5 in the morning Malaysia time, Apple and Palantir report. That's the first read on whether Friday's tech fear spreads or settles.
Tuesday is also the American midterm election. Results start coming in on Wednesday morning, our time. Nobody knows the result yet, so the pressure points both ways.
Wednesday morning, AMD reports. Thursday morning, Qualcomm and Arm.
And Friday at 9:30 at night, Malaysia time, the October jobs report. Forecasts sit between 55 thousand and 63 thousand new jobs, with unemployment at 4.2 percent. A weak number could soften the case for a hike. A strong number could harden it.
Closer to home, a quick note. On Friday, our KLCI actually rose 0.27 percent to 1,615.60, while most of the region fell. The ringgit firmed to 4.0554 against the US dollar, near a two-month high. But breadth was weak. More stocks fell than rose. So don't read too much into one green close.
And Bitcoin? After the 6.3 billion dollar Binance hack on Thursday, Bitcoin held near 77,900 dollars over the weekend. Binance started reopening withdrawals on Sunday.
So what do I take from all this?
When the calendar is this full, the right move is usually to trade smaller, not braver. Three things. Read the candles. Know the direction. Respect the momentum. And size your risk before anything else.
The goal this week isn't to catch every move. It's to still be here on Saturday, with your savings working for the things that matter. A good dinner with family. School fees paid without stress.
This is educational market commentary, not personal financial advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Markets carry risk of loss. Size your risk before any trade.
Survive first. See you tomorrow.