AWM Insights Financial and Investment News

Join Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna as they break down the first half of the year in financial markets, cutting through the noise to reveal what really matters for families focused on long-term wealth. From headline shocks and surprise market rallies to the hype cycle around tech giants and SpaceX, they unpack the most important lessons learned and the pitfalls to avoid.

Whether you're building a 100-year family legacy or simply trying to stay disciplined through market ups and downs, this episode delivers sharp insights and expert strategies to help you stay the course. Tune in for a candid, behind-the-scenes look at how seasoned advisors navigate uncertainty and keep their eye on the long game.

Chapters
(00:00) Reflecting on the First Half of the Year
(02:00) Market Dislocation and Performance Surprises
(04:00) Limitations of Market Predictions
(07:00) Media Hype and Fear-Mongering
(09:00) Importance of Discipline and Avoiding Market Timing
(11:00) Dangers of Chasing Hype Investments
(16:00) Core Principles for the 100-Year Family

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Creators and Guests

Host
Justin Dyer
Chief Investment Officer and Chief Operating Officer at AWM Capital
Host
Mena Hanna
Senior Investment Analyst at AWM Capital

What is AWM Insights Financial and Investment News?

A bite sized discussion on timely financial news and investment topics, to help you maximize your net worth and wealth for the next generation with Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna of AWM Capital.

Mena Hanna: SpaceX reached $225 per share
at one point, if you really get nitpicky

and find the real top, we're at $157.

That's actually just over
30% in terms of a loss.

So if you were the unlucky fellow
that bought at $225 and you held

to today, you're essentially
in a bear market yourself.

You're in a COVID-like outcome,
just from buying a hype stock

that was completely mispriced and
is coming back down to reality.

Justin Dyer: Hey, everyone.

Welcome back to another
episode of AWM Insights.

It's your host, Justin Dyer, back from
a couple of weeks away with my family.

Uh, glad to be here and joined as
always by Mina Hanna, my co-host, and,

uh, um, I guess stand-in with, with
Roger and, and Brandon over the last

couple of weeks, uh, doing a great job.

Um, hopefully, you all found
it super informative, um,

over the last couple episodes.

But, um, without further ado,
we're just gonna jump into kind

of our, uh, reflect and refocus.

We're recording this on July 1st.

Um, first half of the
year is in the books.

It's been a pretty good, uh, year
overall with respect to markets,

which, um, you know, three months ago,
I don't know if we would have, uh,

necessarily put money on that statement.

Um, and so we're just gonna kinda go
through lessons learned, um, beliefs,

philosophies underscored, reaffirmed,
all that good stuff, and really, you

know, help you, the listener, uh, in
the pursuit of your 100-year family,

really have the right mindset as we go
into the back half, uh, of the year.

Um, and you know, what, what that will
unfold is, is anyone's guess, um, a-as

you can probably, um, a-appreciate.

And, um, you know, we hope markets
certainly continue to, to trend

in the right direction, but,
um, um, you know, we don't know

exactly w-what, what will happen.

But without further ado, like I
said, let's just jump right into it.

Mina, anything, um, that you just wanna
talk about kind of top of mind, the big

surprises, big shockers to you as we're
looking over the last quarter and last six

months year to date, um, within markets?

Mena Hanna: Yeah.

I think markets have performed
extremely well compared to the negative

headlines that, that we've seen.

You know, Q1 was not a great quarter.

We, we started off the year, you know,
with, with a, a tick up in oil prices.

There was the operation in Venezuela,
and then at the end of February, there

was the conflict in the Middle East.

Those two things really shifted oil
prices up, and that led to a negative

quarter just in terms of, you know,
forecasts on global trade, on GDP, on

what energy prices are going to be,
and we saw energy prices shift up.

Q2 was a completely different story.

We didn't even get, like,
a full-blown resolution.

We got kind of promises of a resolution
at some point, and then, uh, bombing

back and forth, which is, uh, which
is definitely not a resolution.

But we saw indexes, at least in the US,
up ten to 15% over the second quarter.

It was an exceptionally strong quarter
and, and yeah, this is in the face

of elevated oil prices that are
now, you know, substantially lower.

Uh, oil prices are down close to
50% from the all-time highs that we

saw, uh, at, at the start of April.

And, and yeah, we're just seeing--
we're seeing a complete reversion

and dislocation, I would say,
between headlines and, and

actual stock market performance.

Justin Dyer: Yeah.

And just putting, putting some,
um, I guess context around some of

these, these statements you've made.

So Q-Q2 was the best quarter
we've had in six years, so

pretty substantial milestone.

Not obviously the best quarter in history,
but a, but a pretty phenomenal number.

Um, nonetheless, like you said, oil
is, is essentially back to where it

was pre-conflict, where, um, you know,
I, I was on record, I think, in this

podcast saying, "Hey, even if there
is a, um, a, a resolution or a, a

ceasefire, for- more formal ceasefire,"
I expected oil prices to remain higher

just as everything, uh, really kinda
flushes through the system, if you will.

Um, you know, of course I,
I was wrong on that one.

Um, but it just goes to show you how,
how hard it is to, to predict markets.

Um, the other, the other statistic
that's worth highlighting is Mag Seven.

So the darlings of the market for, gosh,
it feels like the last decade almost,

um, they've been phenomenal performers.

They had a terrible quarter.

They had a terrible month of June,
rather, where I think in general,

you know, in aggregate all, across
all those names, roughly down 10%.

Um, that's rough math.

Uh, but the Nasdaq and technology
is still doing fairly well.

And so, uh, a great reminder there that
you don't wanna go overly concentrated

in a specific theme because that
theme can change very, very quickly.

It went from basically Mag Seven,
AI, to purely the chip stocks,

'cause NVIDIA is also in that group
that had a pretty terrible, uh…

or not terrible, but pretty
weak- Yeah … month of June.

Um, and so yeah, it's, it's been a
fascinating six months, to say the least.

Y-you know, you've touched on
a couple things, but I'll just

reiterate them kind of for my, my
own, uh, mental processing of it all.

Um, I mean, trade wars
essentially early on.

AI, there's plenty of hype around AI
bubbles or questioning around I-AI

bubbles, geopolitical conflicts,
oil spiking, uh, decent amount

of volatility within the tech
market, specifically around AI.

A lot of hype, a lot of hype around
the SpaceX IPO even, for that matter.

Uh, and yeah.

And, and here we are w-with essentially
really solid returns, uh, if we were

to end the year where we are today.

That's obviously not, uh, not
gonna happen, and we don't

know exactly what will come to
fruition over the next six months.

But, uh, there's a lot of interesting
just kind of narratives and, and

stories within the broader market.

But b- Turning this to, like, tangible
takeaways, you know, I, I think I used

the term r-reflect and refocus, or if I
haven't, that's really, uh, essentially

what we're doing here, channeling our
inner, uh, Brian Cain, good friend,

uh, of the firm, to l-let's look back.

What are the, what are the new lessons
that, that, you know, we did well

or we could have done differently
or s- you know, that general kind

of, uh, uh, a framework or mindset.

Um, and I would argue that this past
six months, there's always little

microcosms of the broader, uh, let's
call it history and, and data story

that, that markets tell us, uh,
that really support our, our general

philosophy and application for investing,
uh, on behalf of 100-year families.

Um, this six months in
particular was, I think, a, a, in

particular, really, really good.

Weak first quarter, conflict, et cetera,
et cetera, et, uh, et cetera, and, and

there's a great old adage that markets
climb a wall of worry, and I, I feel

like this quarter s- especially was
a great, uh, great example of that.

Mena Hanna: et cetera, and, and there's
a great old adage that markets climb

a wall of worry, and I, I feel like
this quarter s- uh, especially was a

great, uh, a great example of that.

Definitely.

Um, and if I had to summarize it in, in
two takeaways, the first one would be

the media is definitely not your friend.

There is so much fear-mongering that
goes on, especially in financial media.

You were talking about the Mag Seven.

The media's already kind of replaced
the Mag Seven with the Mango stocks now.

Um, and two of them, Anthropic and
OpenAI, aren't even, aren't even public.

Um, so the, y- you just have a media
cycle that is, that is looking for clicks.

It's looking for attention.

Um, if you would've probably tuned in or,
or looked up at, looked into any of these

kind of investment strategies, um, or
people that were just talking on some of

the, some of the public channels, you'd
probably dump all your money in the Mag

Seven, uh, based on what the rhetoric
was, how things looked like 12 months ago.

And what we've seen year to date is
the Mag Seven's actually lost money.

Market's up, the tech side of the
market is up 13 and a half percent.

Mag Seven's down two and a half percent.

So, a huge deviation in, in performance.

And there's just-- it, it kinda
goes back to, there's just so much

fear-mongering that goes on in the media.

You know, even we were just
talking about energy and, and oil.

Europe was supposed to run out
of oil during this conflict.

You know, jets, jet fuel was
supposed to completely run out.

People weren't gonna be able to
travel in between continents.

You're gonna be just
stuck wherever you are.

Clearly, you came back from Europe,
so that's not, that didn't happen.

But we just have so many examples
of, like, people expecting the worst.

We saw it during COVID.

The world's gonna shut down.

The world's gonna end.

This is an existential crisis.

We, we've seen this so many times,
war in Ukraine, inflation, and at the

end of the day, what markets end up
doing is climbing that wall of worry.

So, the second main point that I would
make is, is don't try to time markets.

Um, if you looked at the headlines,
you know, we were in a conflict

that started in February.

There's no end in sight.

The vast majority of energy
infrastructure was disrupted

at this point, which is huge.

Um, I don't think people, people
realize how important that actually is.

Oh, totally agree.

Um, and, and what we were left with
was this dismal outlook for probably

the rest of the quarter and the rest
of the year, and markets have, have

performed exceptionally well through that.

So All that, I know I just went
on a mon-monologue, but definitely

don't believe in the media.

Stick to the game plan
and, and be disciplined.

Don't hit the senic-- sell button.

Don't panic sell.

It is…

That, that's when markets
end up rewarding investors.

Justin Dyer: And I'll, I'll even flip
that, um, to the opposite side of the

coin around the, the hype machine as well.

I mean, I mentioned the SpaceX IPO
earlier, and that certainly is, uh, not

necessarily the fear-mongering side of it.

It's really the FOMO machine
that financial media, media in

general really, really feeds into.

And, you know, I-- we've said this
many times in the, in the distant,

distant past that it's a great reminder
to realize that Instagram, LinkedIn,

whatever, TikTok, Yahoo Finance, Wall
Street Journal, like their business

model is to get you to click on
something so they can sell you ads.

Their business model is not to
give you sound financial advice.

And that cuts both ways, both on
the fear-mongering side of things,

but also on the hype machine side
of things with respect to SpaceX.

Oh, I mean, it was wild.

It's been one of the most interesting
IPOs I've seen in my career, um, where

Everyone and their mother is asking,
"Should I be buying I- uh, SpaceX IPO?"

Um, and, you know,
we've talked about that.

Go listen to the last couple
episodes around our take on IPOs

and private markets and whatnot.

Like, yeah, SpaceX is a
really interesting company.

Buying it at the IPO is not
a sound way, sound investment

strategy for a 100-year family.

There are better ways, private markets
specifically, um, i- to get access to

companies like a SpaceX, e- et cetera.

Uh, and then when they're, they are
public, there are much more sound,

kind of high probability ways in which
you can i- invest in a company like

SpaceX in a very prudent, uh, logical
way to support that 100-year family.

And it's just a good reminder that
fear-mongering, the forced sell--

I shouldn't say forced selling,
the, the, the, the kind of, uh,

liquidating or selling because you
feel like the geopolitical situation's

untenable or, you know, markets or
oil prices are gonna be where they

are for extended period of time, et
cetera, all that, that type of stuff.

Um, it, it's so damaging.

Tho- those behaviors can really,
really, really be damaging.

It's understandable because of the world
in which we live in, this 24/7 cycle,

the inundation of, uh, of information.

But again, really the purpose of this
podcast is, at times, is to really take a

step back and remind people the long-term
lessons that we know and, and even

looking over a six-month period of time,
it can reaffirm that they still work.

You said it, diversification.

Don't time markets.

Uh, you know, you, you-- if you sold
it at the end of Q1, you missed this,

like I said, the best quarter in six
years, and that can be so damaging,

just missing out not only on a
single really strong quarter, but a

couple really, really strong days.

I don't remember the exact statistic
o- off the top of my head, but it's

incredibly powerful where you miss
a handful of the best days in the

market, your returns are significantly,
uh, hurt over the long term.

And, and we just know that
that is putting, again, the

100-year family at risk.

So, really interesting quarter or, and
first six months of the year, great

lessons underscored, um, lots of things
that we can take a- and certainly Carry

through the next two quarters, the,
the back half of the year, but most

definitely on the 100-year family journey.

Mena Hanna: Yeah.

And I want to hit on kind
of two, two different points

that you made there as well.

The discipline around
missing that quarter.

If you miss that quarter, this
past quarter, you essentially

missed a full year of returns.

We've, we've talked about kind of
missing the best three, five, 10

days and what that does and how
much that actually erodes returns.

There are some days where markets
are up, kind of like Liberation Day

when Trump called off the tariffs.

Markets were up 10-ish
percent that one day.

So if you miss that one day, you
missed a full annual year of expected

market returns in one trading day.

It is just not an option to, in my
opinion, for the 100 Year Family to

completely exit the market and wait
for the storm to pass because you said

it, markets climb the wall of worry.

That is why there is a higher expected
return there over just investing in

bonds or letting your money sit in cash.

So that is, that is a crucial point.

Your second point about chasing.

Chasing anything.

SpaceX is now a great example.

SpaceX reached $225 per share at one
point, if you, if you really kind of

get nitpicky and, and find the real top.

We're at $157.

That's actually just over
30% in terms of a loss.

So if you were the unlucky fellow
that bought at $225 and you held

to today, you're essentially
in a bear market yourself.

You're in a pretty bad situat--
You're, you're in a COVID-like outcome,

um, just from buying a hype stock
that was completely mispriced and,

and is coming back down to reality.

We've seen the same things
in, in Bitcoin Bitcoin.

is still down more than
50% from its all-time high.

You don't hear about it because
all the crypto bros are, are,

are out, are out in hiding.

Um, but Bitcoin was at $126,000 a coin.

Now it's at roughly 60.

Same thing with gold.

Gold was north of $5,500 in,
in some markets, and now, you

know, hovering around $4,000.

It was at $3,900 kind of
before this call started.

So, so many of these asset classes that
people chase, it, it seems cool, it seems

fun to do, but it is not how professional
investors actually should invest or how

the 100 Year Family should carry out,
you know, the business operation side

Justin Dyer: things.

Yeah.

I mean, 100%.

Great, great reminders.

When assets skyrocket upwards,
they can come down, you know,

equally as fast, uh, and stay
down, uh, for that matter as well.

And that kinda, I guess, leads us
to some conclusions to underscore.

You hit on it, but a-along
that, that comment I just made.

Diversification is 100% your friend.

The last month was a great example of it.

Over-concentrating MAG Seven
would've really hurt and

damaged the 100 Year Family.

Um, gold, oil, I mean,
there, there's some…

Bitcoin is a great example as well.

Um, right?

So just underscoring that
idea, sticking to your plan,

diversification is your friend.

Markets do climb this wall of worry, and
we don't know what is going to really

unfold over the next six months, but
keeping these just, you know, core tenets

to the 100 Year Family investment journey
is super, super important as we turn

the page here to the back half of 2026.

Uh, we'll continue to talk about all
sorts of markets that, uh, or all

sort- sorts of topics with respect
to the market, uh, that we see fit.

But obviously, uh, always
shoot us questions.

Mena Hanna: Yeah.

My number's six two six eight
six two zero three five five.

Justin Dyer: Awesome.

And until next time, own your wealth,
make an impact, and always be a pro