A bite sized discussion on timely financial news and investment topics, to help you maximize your net worth and wealth for the next generation with Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna of AWM Capital.
Justin Dyer: Hey everyone.
Welcome back to another
episode of a WM Insights.
Justin Dyer here, chief Investment Officer
at a WM Joined, as always by Mina Hana,
our portfolio manager here at a WM and.
We're gonna continue to just talk about
the, the plethora, the long list of, uh,
of events going on in the world today.
Um, and a lot of 'em are,
are, are, uh, are not funny,
so it shouldn't be chuckling.
However, um, we want to change the,
the, the narrative or the discussion
that we really focus on today, uh, to.
The simple question of,
Hey, am I, am I safe?
Right?
There's a lot of volatility, there's
a lot of, um, serious events that are
going on, but we want to really distill
it down and speak a little bit more
tangibly about how to think about.
You, your portfolio, your
family, are you protected?
We've mentioned it, we've touched
on it over the last few weeks.
Um, but we're gonna expand
on that quite a bit.
Uh, I do want to say, kind of just
preface this, that Mina and I were, were
chatting, um, ahead of time and trying
to figure out what to talk about today.
And we, we struggle
with it because we are.
Comfortable.
We're so comfortable with our approach
during times of stress that we
don't wanna just repeat ourselves.
We wanna actually give you all
listeners a, a new takeaway, a new
way of thinking about investing,
a new way of understanding
how we think about investing.
And so, uh, we didn't just
wanna say, oh, hey, you know,
there's crazy events going on.
Don't worry, there's gonna
be volatility, you know?
You're fine, right?
Like we want to add to that, that,
that, um, we want to add some
substance to that general conversation.
So without further ado, we're
gonna try to do that today.
Mina, let's start kind
of with first principle.
I think it's always, always
good to go there, like.
When I talk about, um, digesting how
to think about your own portfolio
today, what is going on today, right?
I assume this is gonna be repetitive
to to folks, but we also wanna make
sure we're all on the same page.
Mena Hanna: Yeah.
What are you saying?
There's, there's a lot of turbulence.
There's a lot of turbulence in,
in a lot of different markets too,
which is, which is sometimes rare,
uh, to have kind of a major weather
storm across, call it the a, a large
portion of the investment universe.
Public equities obviously, and
this is internationally because of.
The geopolitical issues of today that
it's impacting every single economy,
whether it be the European economy, the
American economy, the Asian economy.
We're seeing turbulence in
public markets across the board.
We're also seeing
turbulence in commodities.
Oil is is the big one.
Supply chain's been.
Massively disrupted.
We talked about that already,
but that also influences public
markets and also private markets.
And then we're seeing some turbulence
in private credit to be specific, that
doesn't have anything to do with kind of
the, the geopolitical events of today.
It's more of a, a structural issue and.
And kind of one of the reasons that
we, we haven't wanted to invest in
private credit in general, and it's
an asset class we don't have exposure
to, but, but yeah, just a lot of
turbulence going on in a lot of different
asset classes for various reasons.
Justin Dyer: Yeah.
Right.
Various reasons.
It's geopolitical to structural
with private credit to.
You know, I, I, let's call it market
dynamics with respect to AI and
people still questioning whether
there's a bubble or what's the
impact of that crazy technology.
Um, so yeah, lots, lots going on, right?
Which again, I, I think we all know
I, but where I'd like to, to take the
conversation is given that backdrop.
Let's go to go back to
the building blocks.
This conversation we had a few mon months
ago, kind of going through how we build
portfolios and did that whole series
about the foundation, the offensive
line, your defense, like first and
foremost, those are most important.
Let's go there.
How, how do we, how do we think about it?
Why is it important?
These are all tailored to our
clients, their situations.
And I think contrast that or compare it
to what is most common out there, kind
of the, the more cookie cutter approach.
Mena Hanna: Yeah.
Um, and it, it's never fun to log
into your portfolio or log into to
Schwab or add APAR and see that.
Your investment portfolio is down, but
the way that I like to think about it
is, am I actually going to be okay?
Is the core of my portfolio, the
defensive part of my portfolio, robust
enough to, to take care of me and to
make sure that I don't have any call
it changes that I need to make for.
Either the short,
intermediate, or long term.
That's kind of where I like to start off.
Again, never fun to see, uh, see your,
your net worth on, on paper go down.
But I am ultimately at peace
because in kind of highlighting
what you said at the start of the
call, our process is so robust.
The defense is there.
The defense is there, especially
in times like this where.
The, the question, am I going to be okay?
Is easily answered with, with a yes.
There's a thoughtful approach that
carries any of our clients through
multiple years of full spending.
So there's, there's definitely a, a
safety net built into how we structure
and how we build out portfolios.
Um, and, and kind of shamelessly plugging
the, uh, the 2001 Miami Hurricanes.
That team would've gone eight and four
if their offense scored zero points.
So when, when we really talk about
winning championships and, and winning
championships, and building this a hundred
year family, a hundred year dynasty,
you need a good defense to do that.
You can't have a defense that's
subpar, that's going to bleed
points, um, when you, when you
need them to be structurally solid.
So.
That's why I, I, I hope our, uh, fixed
income portfolios is as good as the 2001
hurricanes, but that is, that is how
you win championships and that's how
you are resilient in times like this.
Right.
You brought up the, the cookie cutter
example and how people really manage
money and, and we see this a lot
of times with athlete portfolios
that are coming in, is just that
small, medium and large shirt size.
That financial advisors give to their
clients and, and they hope that the fit
is, is good enough and, and it's okay.
Um, and there's, there's
a lot of slop with that.
Especially in times like this.
You can get really, really hurt.
We saw this in 2002, uh, 2022,
excuse me, where some fixed income
strategies were down 20 plus percent.
And your equities were down roughly 18%.
So your safe money lost more
money than than your aggressive
money, which we hate to see.
But that's what happens when
you're not thoughtful with
how you build out portfolios.
And in times like that, your, your hands
are sort of tied behind your back, your.
You're either not doing
what you want to do in life.
You're not buying a house, you're not
buying a car that you've previously
planned on because you don't want
to take a 20% loss, or you take
the 20% loss and and destroy money.
And destroy wealth forever So we want
to make sure that we put our clients
in a position where they have a pool
of fixed income that's short-term that
doesn't really move with the market
that's there for them when they need it.
Even when markets aren't doing so hot.
Justin Dyer: Yeah.
I think that's incredibly well said.
Right, and, and in a way, the
common application to building
portfolios, take it, you know,
take the cookie cutter approach.
You put 60% in stocks, 40% in bonds,
or some, some percentage of that.
Right.
Ratcheted up 10% either way.
Um.
On the fixed income side, that
is really what is most important
and kind of what you're getting
at, uh, is it's risk masquerading
as quote unquote diversification.
So many people build portfolios like
that and you're like, oh, you're
diversified 'cause you have 30% of
your assets in fixed income or bonds.
But then within that bond
portfolio, there's a whole heck
of a lot of risk that will.
Move or just, there's a whole heck of
a lot of investments that will move in
the exact opposite direction that you
need, right When you happen to need it.
So I think that is the most
important point here to, to walk
away from or walk away with.
Right.
Exactly what you just said.
To win the, to win the championship, to
build the a 100-year family, to build
that dynasty, you need that defense.
That defense, and.
The defense and or foundation, right?
We could talk about the
foundation of a home, which we
talked about in past episodes.
It starts with a.
You know, arguably plain and boring
fixed income approach, but that, that's
tailored exactly to your priorities.
It's precise versus just some
sort of approximate type, um,
allocation or type dollar amount
that you're putting in fixed income.
Whether that's actually the right
type of fixed income or not is
whole nother question, and usually
it is not, and that's what we see.
And in periods of time like this, it.
It really can destroy wealth if,
if it's not, um, well thought out.
And so I think those are really
important takeaways that, that I
certainly want to, to, to highlight and
kind of underscore with what you said.
Mena Hanna: Yeah.
And it's, it is scary to see your
portfolio move, but it's also scary
to see every single asset in your
portfolio move in the wrong way.
So that's what we wanna make sure
that we, we move against and.
And yeah, this is kind of a
situation where there's, in a lot
of ways in which these portfolios
are built, there's very little to
gain, but there is a ton to lose.
So when you kind
Justin Dyer: if you overreact Yeah.
Mena Hanna: you overreact,
if you overreact
Justin Dyer: or are not precise Yeah.
In your
Mena Hanna: Construction, not
precise in your construction.
So if you really are not thoughtful
here, there is, there is massive
downside with not a whole lot of upside.
Justin Dyer: I, I also
wanna make sure we do.
Remind everyone to take, take a step back
and also think about long term, right?
Yes.
Markets are incredibly volatile right now.
It is uncomfortable.
Uh, it's human nature
that is totally normal.
Ask us questions.
Hopefully these conversations
help listeners just digest
it all in the correct way.
Um, but markets a aren't down negative.
Across the board so far this year, believe
it or not, emerging markets, just looking
at this, uh, or really x US non-US markets
are still slightly positive for the year.
US markets are negative,
low single digits.
Um, but extend that.
Uh, to the last 12 months, we're still up.
You extend that.
Even beyond that, you're still up.
Um, now obviously that, that applies
to folks that have been invested,
but it's just a good reminder, right?
The a hundred year family takes that
perspective, takes that discipline.
Yes.
We need to understand what's going
on in current market environments,
digest that stress test.
Our thinking, all that good stuff.
But the a hundred year
family is exactly that.
A hundred year, very long
term discipline is critical.
And to get there, defense will really,
um, you know, save the day, if you will.
So,
Mena Hanna: one thing that I also
want to hit on is, is yeah, just
looking at our portfolios and our
equity portfolios in particular.
There's a lot of diversification here
that is going to help in times like this.
You mentioned emerging markets.
Emerging markets are still up
on the year, which is, which is
great to see real estate as well
publicly traded real estate.
That has actually been doing
extremely well this year.
So when you're putting that offense
together, you have to make sure
that you have exposure to all of
these different asset classes.
And at the same time too, uh, this was
actually a, a a client question like.
Or client point, like I hate
paying 15 bucks more at the, uh,
at the pump when I'm, when I'm
filling up my car with gas Well.
You actually own probably a little bit
of that company that's now making more
money off of you now, kind of, kind of
not fun to get money made off of you,
but at the end of the day, that actually
shows up in their profits, that shows
up in their stock price, I actually sent
them how much of of Chevron they own.
And it's a lot, it's a much
more significant amount of money
than the 15 extra dollars that
you're, you're paying at the pump.
So.
That money obviously comes back into
the portfolio via dividends or via
just share growth and expansion.
Uh, but it's important to remember
that as a, as a client of AWM you
are invested in the global economy.
And even when prices move up
on some things, you're probably
participating in that growth in
some way, one way, shape or another.
Justin Dyer: Yeah, that's a,
that's a great place to end.
Um, and just great perspective, right?
Is, is it's in times like this where
there's a lot of uncertainty, not
only domestically, but just broad,
very broadly around the world.
You know, one of the best places
to, uh, our best approaches to
take is, is really diversification.
Um, there is a lot going on,
so please let us know if you
have any specific questions.
Mena Hanna: 6 2 6 8 6 2 0 3, 5
Justin Dyer: 5.
Shoot us a text.
We love talking about things that
are top of mind, relevant, very
specific to you all our listeners.
Um, and, and most importantly, know
that our process is, is precise, right?
It gives you the protection
you need to withstand, uh.
Bouts of volatility.
We don't know how long this period will
last, but we, we know there's a process
in place to, to build and support that
a hundred year family and, and we love
serving you all, um, a along that journey.
So until next time, own your wealth,
make an impact, and always be a pro.