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Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
You're watching TBPN.
Speaker 2:Today is Monday, 10/13/2025. We are live from the TBPN UltraDome, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Let's go.
Speaker 3:Did see
Speaker 2:we got some media attention? That's right. We were mentioned on cheeky pint. Charlie Songhurst and Mark Andreessen
Speaker 3:Yep.
Speaker 2:Chatting with John Collison on cheeky pint. You probably saw it over the weekend. Of course, we were talking about The New York Times. We were on the cover of the Sunday business section.
Speaker 3:Thank you to Mike With the gray lady.
Speaker 2:Came out.
Speaker 3:And it was
Speaker 2:beautiful. Couple scratches. Couple scratches.
Speaker 3:Thank you to Mike Isaac for coming to the Ultradome, hanging out with the whole team, trying to understand the absurdity of We this had a lot of fun. And it was funny. The digital version of the article came out at 2AM Pacific on Saturday. Yeah. And I ended up waking up at
Speaker 2:the Yeah. What's your sleep score? What's your sleep score for that night?
Speaker 3:Because Oh, it was pretty brutal, actually.
Speaker 2:A bunch of text messages from you and Dylan at at three in the morning because you guys have clearly read it.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Woke up and read it.
Speaker 3:Yeah. I got a 43.
Speaker 2:Woah. That's that's New York Times for you, baby.
Speaker 3:Yeah. So pretty pretty rough. But I thought it turned out great.
Speaker 2:It's good. We got a ramp mention in there. Time is money, save both. Easy use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. We also got a polymarket mention in there.
Speaker 2:This is why you advertise on TVPN. We'll get you mentioned in the New York Times.
Speaker 3:But yeah, was fun fun article.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It was good. But there was bigger news than us, bigger news than our war to bring SportsCenter to LinkedIn. It's actually funny. We are
Speaker 3:It's funny. Can you imagine, like, the real LinkedIn heads that are gonna read that article?
Speaker 2:Be like, these guys don't take LinkedIn seriously at all.
Speaker 3:Culture. They don't under They don't represent us.
Speaker 2:They're on x. They're bigger on x than they are on LinkedIn. These guys are fake LinkedIn heads. No. We are trying to grow our LinkedIn.
Speaker 2:If you wanna help us on our warpath to bring technology news for the first time to LinkedIn and educate the unwashed masses on LinkedIn as to the nature of technology. We'd love to have you join the team. We're looking for a social media manager, someone to help with growth, someone to help post and repurpose content clip, also do
Speaker 3:new content Looks like some hybrid of somebody that enjoys writing Yep. Enjoys the content of the show Yep. And wants to basically repurpose the show's content for the LinkedIn feed. Yep. It sounds I think it is a lot more fun than it sounds.
Speaker 2:Exactly.
Speaker 3:You get to hang out here at the Ultradome Yeah. Every day.
Speaker 2:You have to view these platforms as like, large systems that you can kind of understand how to optimize within them. And so on YouTube, you know, there's the the title, the thumbnail. There's this whole game of, like, what the current thing is on YouTube. Like, if you if you do an interview with mister beast, you're just gonna get a ton of views on YouTube. That's not the case on Axe.
Speaker 2:We'd love to have him on the show. It'd be fun, but it's not gonna be our biggest draw. Somebody like Rune will be a great draw on Axe, but probably not on YouTube. And LinkedIn is similar. We do a lot of content that does do well on LinkedIn already.
Speaker 2:But there will be specific pieces of the show, so you have to work to figure out what's working and then how is their algorithm changing? How is their content structure changing? Like, the the medium is the message. That's very real. And so you have to deliver content that fits within that, whether it's the vertical short form or the long posts or, you know, I I hear AI is extremely popular on LinkedIn.
Speaker 2:So maybe you have to take our authentic content
Speaker 3:And slopify it.
Speaker 2:And slopify it. Exact that might be the key to success. I don't really care what the key is. Obviously, we do have brand standards, but, we want you to come on and explore what works, find interesting niches of strategies that work. We've done this on Instagram.
Speaker 2:We've done this
Speaker 3:on mean, main thing is we yeah, it's very much an art and a science. It's also your job is not to post. Your job is not to just deploy content.
Speaker 2:Yes, yes.
Speaker 3:Yes. Job is to experiment and understand the platform better than anybody else.
Speaker 2:Culture of the platform.
Speaker 3:Exactly. Exactly.
Speaker 2:And we've done that with a lot of things. We've had fun with with our Substack. You can go subscribe, tbpn.com. And and I think we wound up coming up with a unique product in email. It's a daily letter with a with one, you know Rant.
Speaker 2:500 word rant by me.
Speaker 3:With some timeline
Speaker 2:And then some timeline there and like, you know, everyone has an email newsletter. There's a lot of email newsletters out there. We still wanted to carve out something unique, and we wanna do the same thing LinkedIn. So please come help us, and then obviously
Speaker 3:Well, you know who understands the culture of American dynamism?
Speaker 2:Restream.io, of course. One livestream, 30 plus destinations, multi stream, and reach your audience wherever they No. Who? Tell
Speaker 3:me. JPMorgan. JPMorgan That's true. At 3AM Pacific announces a 1 and a half trillion dollar security and resiliency initiative Okay. To boost critical industries.
Speaker 3:Let's give it up for JPMorgan for saying the biggest number.
Speaker 2:This is the biggest number
Speaker 3:We'll we've make direct equity investments of up to $10,000,000,000 as part of the $1,500,000,000,000 initiative to address pressing needs in key sectors from critical minerals to frontier technologies.
Speaker 2:So do
Speaker 4:they just have
Speaker 2:1,500,000,000,000.0 laying around? Like, where's
Speaker 3:It's a ten year plan Okay. To facilitate, finance, and invest in industries critical to national economic security
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 3:And resiliency. As part of the new initiative, JPMorgan Chase will make direct equity and venture capital investments of up to 10,000,000,000. That's a lot. These are
Speaker 2:Direct equity. So growth equity. So Is this mean, that's like an Andreessen sized, or, I guess, Andreessen 65,000,000,000 or something, a little bit more.
Speaker 3:It's like AUM?
Speaker 2:Yeah. AUM for some of the big funds, a general catalyst or a light speed. Like, I feel like a lot of the a lot of the big venture funds are managing in the tens of billions now, maybe. Yeah. Something like that.
Speaker 2:Certainly. So they're saying, we're getting in the game. Watch your watch your back.
Speaker 3:Jamie Dimon says, it has been clear that The United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products, manufacturing, all of which are essential for our national security. Mhmm. Our security is predicated on the strength and resiliency of America's economy. America needs more speed and investment. Mhmm.
Speaker 3:It also needs to remove obstacles that stand in the way, excessive regulations, bureaucratic delay, partisan gridlock, and an education system not aligned to the skills we need. So they are going to be focused on supply chain and advanced manufacturing, including critical minerals pharmaceutical precursors and robotics defense and aerospace, including defense, tech, autonomous systems, drones, next gen connectivity and secure communications energy independence and resilience, including battery storage, grid resilience and distributed energy, and frontier and strategic technologies, including AI, cybersecurity, and quantum computing. You have to wonder if Sam gave the hard pitch to Jamie and said, I know you were planning to give that one and a half trillion to a few people. I happen to have announced partnerships that require about 1 and a half trillion of capital.
Speaker 2:He's basically just like Why don't you just not announce be my banker and just do every deal up and down the stack Yeah.
Speaker 3:And
Speaker 2:Of finance my entire supply chain.
Speaker 3:Of course. I'm sure OpenAI will directly or indirectly get some of this investment.
Speaker 2:There's a lot a lot of stuff in here. A lot of a lot of categories that are pretty cool, and we've talked to a lot of founders in these spaces. Very exciting. Noticeably absent the luxury watch industry. Are we not focused on that?
Speaker 2:Is Bezel the is Bezel the only company that's holding the line on on luxury watches? I mean, I guess I guess some of the, bulk materials could be, you know, strategic diamond storage for iced out potax. That that could be the solution.
Speaker 3:Definitely.
Speaker 2:But you can go get a watch at getbezel.com. Your bezel concierge is available now. Source you any watch in the planet. Seriously, any watch. Anything else from this?
Speaker 2:I mean, is this moving the markets? Is this why we're so back? Did you see the market on Friday?
Speaker 3:Yeah. I mean, MP Materials is up 23% today.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:But, again, there's other stories out there, including the broader story around, rare earth.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. The Nasdaq is up 2.2% today. We should have worn white suits. What were we thinking?
Speaker 2:I know. Opportunity. You know,
Speaker 3:Friday was tomorrow.
Speaker 2:Friday was rough. The Nasdaq sold off almost 3%. But I think it's good because for the last two weeks, everyone has been saying, it's a bubble. It's a bubble. It's a bubble.
Speaker 2:It's gonna crash. And then it did crash
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 2:On Friday. The bubble people popped were expecting. The bubble popped on Friday. And now we're out of the trough of disillusionment. We're in the plateau of productivity now.
Speaker 2:And so Going up. Yeah. We we can stop saying it's a bubble because the bubble popped. That was Friday. Now we're ready to build again.
Speaker 2:Yeah. We're ready to move forward. It's time to build. No. Of course, the the Friday news was driven mostly by tariffs and and a lot of back and forth with China.
Speaker 2:We have Ryan Peterson joining in just twelve twenty minutes to talk about
Speaker 3:Talk about how Donald Trump How
Speaker 2:much sleep he's getting.
Speaker 3:Who is an actor is almost a character in Ryan's personal movie that is just sent to torment him
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:By announcing massive, new trade wars every other month. In other news, OpenAI is partnering with Broadcom to deploy 10 gigawatts of chips designed by OpenAI. Sophie, aka NetCapGirl on x said AI won't peak until Broadcom starts getting hyped like Nvidia. That might be today. Broadcom is up another 10% on this news, even though we already sort of this had already been basically announced.
Speaker 3:Call it, man.
Speaker 2:Let's go, baby.
Speaker 3:It's so funny if you you went and just on the street and and asked people, do you think Broadcom or Tesla is a bigger company? How many people how many people would would would pick Broadcom?
Speaker 2:Don't know. It is at 1,680,000,000,000. Yeah. Yeah. We gotta turn Hawk Tan into an Elon level meme.
Speaker 2:He'll be like, I bought this network switch before the Hawk Tan went on TBPN, something like that. I don't
Speaker 3:know. Stefan It's good to see. In the chat says, what do you think Trump's sleep score is? That's a good question. I'd he's he must be sleeping, like, four hours a night.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It is is today's rally like a taco trade? Right? Is that what's going on? Or has there actually been news on, like, the tariffs
Speaker 3:Yeah. I think I think over the weekend
Speaker 2:That's what I wanted to talk to Ryan about.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Over the weekend, I think it it was a misunderstanding.
Speaker 2:Okay. Okay. Okay.
Speaker 3:Like, both sides have kind of backed off a
Speaker 2:little bit. Yeah. It's it's I mean, immediately, it it was remarkable how resilient you know, we talk about the resilience of the American consumer, but the the resilience of the American retail trader is deeply underrated. We had multiple I had interaction with multiple retail traders over the weekend who immediately were like, so this is a good time to buy the dip. Right?
Speaker 2:It's like, everything should be like flashing. Like, this is the start of the end. This is the crash of all 1920
Speaker 3:I thinking what if what if the the catalyst for AI sell this AI sell off was just
Speaker 2:This could Trump's be the beginning. It's such a it's such a viscerally you're hearing stories about Bitcoin trading down 10% a day. Was just talking Bitcoin trading down.
Speaker 3:To see how many people were so levered.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I had no idea this was a thing. I mean, usually, like, when I see the market trades down 2%, I'm like, okay. I'm like 2% poor today or whatever. Like, I feel like I'm like roughly indexed to the market, not like heavily levered either way.
Speaker 2:And I feel like my business is 2% rougher or, 2% better.
Speaker 3:Yeah. There's just, like, these screenshots from, like, Reddit.
Speaker 2:But a lot of people are, like
Speaker 3:being, like, I've I've every single dollar that I've, like, saved and invested over the last decade is gone. Yeah. Like you didn't have like you love Bitcoin so much that you didn't just put like Yeah. A few Bitcoin in a wallet and say Yeah. No.
Speaker 3:No. Like I'm not gonna Yeah. Lever No. No. Entirely.
Speaker 2:Like like literally every person I interacted with in the real world over the weekend was like, lost 20% of my network or something. I'm like, on a 2% move, like what's what is your what is your strategy here? But a lot of people are are Bitcoin are are
Speaker 3:Bitcoin sold off
Speaker 2:like 10%.
Speaker 3:10%.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So you're just a modest 2x levered Bitcoin as the core of your strategy. It's a Zumar.
Speaker 3:Was extremely on Ax Zumar, who we featured on the show before.
Speaker 2:He,
Speaker 3:like Thursday night, was saying, like, hot take. Like, leverage is the only way out of the permanent underclass. But he got $10,000 from Nikita's personal fund.
Speaker 2:He levered up. Well, yeah, we're going to Zoomer gate and the backlash to the backlash to the backlash in just a second. But if you're trying to get in on the action or protect what you got, you gotta do it on public.com. Investing for those who take it seriously. You got multi asset investing, industry leading yields, trusted by millions.
Speaker 2:So you can say, I've had enough with all the volatility. I'm going cash only. I'm going bonds only. Whatever you want, you can do it on public.
Speaker 3:Not on public over on Hyperliquid. Mhmm. Two accounts were created Friday that shorted Bitcoin Successfully. Ended up successfully making around $200,000,000 on these, like, very How much? Nope.
Speaker 3:Not not the not the insider trading size gong, John. Easy. Easy. We'll find another
Speaker 2:reason. Okay.
Speaker 3:Hit the size gong for JPMorgan's 1 and a half trillion. Hit it a few times. We are not gonna do the size gong for insider trading.
Speaker 2:We don't know. Alleged insider trading. We don't know. Maybe that person was just smart.
Speaker 3:We can hit the size Gong for Baron Trump potentially getting the nod to be a board director over at TikTok.
Speaker 2:That's actually pretty sweet. And that one makes a lot of sense to me because he's young. TikTok has a young audience. Like, you want young blood in these environments to actually innovate and create good products. I'm sort of
Speaker 3:bullish on that. But And he earned it. Right? I mean, his investing track he's he's he's generated billions
Speaker 2:of dollars. Understands social media. Like, a lot of people do ascribe, like, the Trump podcast run to him and him being like, you gotta go on Theo Vaughn. And Trump being like, who's Theo Vaughn? And Barron being like, trust me.
Speaker 2:Like, he's good. You gotta go collab with this streamer. Like, lot of a lot of social a lot of aggressive social media risks that many politicians wouldn't do beforehand. But Barron actually said, you know, he was gonna do it. There was something else about the insider trading.
Speaker 2:Well yes. So just because two people got the trade right doesn't mean that it's insider trading because on any given day, there could be two random people that are just short Bitcoin. You know? Like, that just does happen. Like, I bet there's two people right now who are short Bitcoin who are not having a good day because Bitcoin's back up.
Speaker 2:Right? And so, like, there there is just, an amount of, like, you know, the lucky like, someone gets, you know, know, double sixes or whatever whatever the casino Yeah.
Speaker 3:Every day, there's people but but this was
Speaker 2:This was suspicious. It was suspicious that it was like a new wallet, a specific Two new
Speaker 3:accounts created and then just massive, massive
Speaker 2:size. And that's only That's the only thing they did.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Okay. Yeah. That's what Yeah. And they immediately cashed out.
Speaker 2:And Okay. No size Gong for them. Oh, speaking of the size Gong, are you are you aware of the Gong Show? No. So it's interesting.
Speaker 2:There's been a number of pieces written about TBPN, and many of them feature the Gong and talk about the Gong. None of them actually The main
Speaker 3:character in the show.
Speaker 2:None of them actually talk about the Gong Show, which was a show in the seventies where it was a I think it was like a thirty minute hour long show or something like that that it was basically like America's Got Talent. So it was a talent show. You'd come on. You'd do are you looking it up?
Speaker 3:It's just
Speaker 2:It's so
Speaker 3:I'm just laughing because it sounds like every startup that gets announced these days. It's like, oh, we're making a show. What should we call it? Oh. Oh, I don't have a creative idea.
Speaker 3:We should just call it the Gong Show.
Speaker 2:The Gong Show. No.
Speaker 3:We should call it the browser company. Yeah. The browser company was creative to their
Speaker 2:Yeah. They were the first ones to do that. But the Gong Show was was a talent show, and they had a huge huge Gong, maybe even bigger than ours. And basically yeah. You can see it.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It's about it's about our size.
Speaker 3:Interesting mallet size.
Speaker 2:Huge mallet. Yeah. They're they're definitely we need to upgrade the mallet for sure. And so the whole the whole trick with the Gong Show was that they would bring someone on and they'd be like, okay. I'm gonna play the flute or I'm gonna do a dance or I'm gonna tell a comedy routine.
Speaker 2:And they had a whole bunch of, like, celebrity, like, judges. And if the judges didn't like the performance, at any moment, they could stand up and just hit the gong, and that would be like, get out of here. Like, you're done. So it's like a game to, like, not get the gong run as oppo run as to us where you want the gong.
Speaker 3:Maybe we should.
Speaker 2:But maybe we should.
Speaker 3:That's actually
Speaker 2:We have an interviewer interview guests on here getting a little boring. You're gonna hit the gong and production team's gonna cut to the next post. Maybe that's the the the end state for this show is that we just say, hey, get out of here with this boring AI take. Tell us something new. Tell
Speaker 3:us something interesting. Negative. Bobby says negative gong hits is crazy.
Speaker 2:Negative gong hits.
Speaker 3:You're out of here.
Speaker 2:Yeah. You're out of here.
Speaker 3:Well Well
Speaker 2:Privy. Wallet infrastructure for every bank. Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rails, securely spin up white label wallets, sign transactions, and integrate on chain infrastructure all through one simple API.
Speaker 3:There is some news out of the Financial Times. Yes. The Dutch government takes control of Chinese owned chipmaker Nexperia. Okay. And terminally online engineer says they did it.
Speaker 3:And it's it's it's Gert Wilder saying, we have an unserious problem. Is
Speaker 2:that a real quote?
Speaker 3:This a real post.
Speaker 2:That was a real post? Was a real post. What? What were referring to?
Speaker 3:We have an unserious problem refers to a viral post on X in mid January twenty twenty four by Dutch politician, Gert Wilders, and the and the response by English speaking users who found the similarities between Dutch and English languages entertaining.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Of course. But what what was the serious problem at that time? What what year was it again?
Speaker 3:Mid January twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2:2024? What was going on then? I don't know. That's hilarious. But this doesn't seem like a serious problem.
Speaker 2:This seems like news for, like, good this seems like good news. Right? The Dutch government sees sees control of one of Europe's biggest chip makers, which was owned by China and Dutch and the Dutch just say, hey. It's ours now. We're nationalizing it.
Speaker 2:I mean, seems like China should be saying they're having a serious problem because they want to have a chipmaker and now they don't. Right? That seems like a that seems like a rough go for them. But I guess, Nexperia's Chinese operations will be in in jeopardy because if you just seize a company that's operating in like, if America was just all of a sudden, like, NVIDIA is owned by the government, well then that like NVIDIA's research lab in Shanghai, I think, would probably be not a great place to be.
Speaker 3:Yeah. It's also just it sets it can set off a, you know, a wild chain of events. So I'll read through some of the Financial Times Move escalates frictions between Western countries and Beijing over access to high end technology. We love high technology here. The Dutch government has taken control of Chinese owned semi company Nexperia, warning of risks to Europe's economic security after alleging serious government governance shortcomings at the company.
Speaker 3:In a statement on Sunday, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs said it acted because of a quote, threat to the continuity and safeguarding on Dutch and European soil of crucial technological knowledge and capabilities. On Thursday, China placed sweeping restrictions on the exports of rare earths using products from cars to wind turbines, the Dutch ministry said it invoked the country's Goods Availability Act because of, quote, recent and acute serious governance shortcomings and actions at Nexperia, which is based in The Netherlands and has been majority owned by Chinese technology group Wingtech since 2019. The decision aims to prevent a situation in which the goods produced by Nexperia would become unavailable in an emergency.
Speaker 2:That's Nimes. Serious problem.
Speaker 3:Serious problem. I asked Gemini to translate the Geert's original post. It just says, we have a serious problem with the political developments regarding the Coercion Act, and I hope that can be solved in the coming days.
Speaker 2:Boring. Boring. Well, thank you, Gemini. Newest sponsor of TBPN, by the way. Check them out.
Speaker 2:Anyways,
Speaker 3:Nexperia produces chips used in the European automotive industry and consumer electronics. So anyways, Vincent Karamans, the Dutch economy minister, can now block a reverse decision taken by Nexperia's board. His department acted on September 30, but only made its move public on October 12. So again, I don't know. Right?
Speaker 3:Anytime you just start seizing, it can obviously, it's going to prevent Chinese companies Seems way
Speaker 2:more aggressive than the Intel story, where what was it? 10% stake for the US government, something like that? Like, that is and and immediately in America, we were all debating, like, is this socialism? Like, have we taken a private company? Are we actually letting the free market work?
Speaker 2:Should, you know, the US government be playing kingmaker in the semiconductor industry? It was a really, like, complicated issue, and and I and, you know, I wrestled with it personally. And over in in the over in Europe, the Dutch are just like, we'll take it all, I guess. I don't know. Yeah.
Speaker 3:Well, they're not I don't think they're they're not seizing the Mhmm. Asset. They're taking like, they're not saying this is ours now. Okay. They're taking control over it.
Speaker 3:They So odd. They they Wingtech, the the owner of Nexperia, said that on September 30, Dutch government had issued an order requiring Nexperia and its global subsidiaries not to make any adjustments to their assets, property, business operations or personnel for one year. That seems like a big The following day, three top Nexperia executives with Dutch and German nationalities submitted an emergency request to the Amsterdam Court of Appeal to intervene at the chipmaker. The court immediately suspended the powers of chief executive Zhang Zhu Zhang. And then they suspended him from his position as CEO.
Speaker 3:Anyways
Speaker 2:Europe's been on a tear. You saw the big new
Speaker 3:just wanna know. I I mean, it's just it's really I feel like impossible to form a take here without understanding what the catalyst was Sure. Because we know that we know that nobody steals more trade secrets than China. And so there's probably something going on under behind the scenes here that we just don't know about.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. What was the real motivation? We'll have to dig into it. Well, in other European news, Europe's big new big AI spending plan is still only 30% of what Meta just purportedly paid to hire Andrew Tillich.
Speaker 2:This was news over the weekend. Andrew is the cofounder of Thinking Machines. Poached. Poached to Meta. For For Allegedly three and
Speaker 4:a half.
Speaker 2:Allegedly three and a half. The number that kind of leaked was what? One point something? 1.5?
Speaker 3:That was the original number that he turned down.
Speaker 2:That was the number he turned down? What do you have on this, Tyler?
Speaker 5:Yeah. I mean, so so I think it was somewhere in the summer, maybe like July, there was the rumors of him him turning down 1,500,000,000.0. Everyone's like, oh my gosh. This is so crazy. That's crazy.
Speaker 5:Must be a true believer in thinking machines. Yep. And then yeah. And then people now people are saying 3.5 is the number. But even then, that's just like the only thing I I I've seen where that number is is just on the timeline.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It seems like full full rumor at this point.
Speaker 3:But I it in I saw it in group chats.
Speaker 2:You're like Yeah.
Speaker 3:You're like Just like
Speaker 2:I yeah.
Speaker 3:At at least a rumor.
Speaker 2:It's
Speaker 3:equally unreliable as.
Speaker 2:Least reliable friend texted it to me as well based on what he saw on the timeline.
Speaker 3:That's funny. But yeah, I think it's funny, Andrew getting the offer for $1,500,000,000 over the summer being like, thank you for the offer. I'm really honored that you have so much faith in me. I'm going to stick with my principles. I'm going to stick it out with my team.
Speaker 3:I'm going to stay true to the mission. We just raised
Speaker 2:I'm a missionary, not a mercenary.
Speaker 3:I'm a missionary, not a mercenary. You know, we just raised $2,000,000,000 Yep. To pursue our vision. And thank you a lot for the offer and look forward to hopefully collaborating in the future. Mr.
Speaker 3:Mark Zuckerberg two months later, Zuckerberg's like, how about 3 and a half billion? He's like, let's ride. Let's ride. So anyways
Speaker 2:Tyler, does does does this trade deal make you more or less AGI build?
Speaker 5:I mean, it so so Thinking Machines is already, like, not very AGI pilled. True. So maybe it's actually more AGI pilling. Right? Because Andrew Tullik, maybe he is super AGI pilled.
Speaker 5:He's seeing what's going on in Thinking Machines and saying
Speaker 2:He needs the scale. This is
Speaker 5:just not enough. I need more.
Speaker 2:He the scale. Yeah. He needs more compute.
Speaker 5:Maybe maybe it's I think this is more AGI pilling.
Speaker 2:He saw the Prometheus plan.
Speaker 5:Yeah. He's like, I
Speaker 2:want that.
Speaker 5:The other thing is like, okay, maybe he just thinks that the bubble is about to pop and he needs to, like, actually he needs, like, layaway chairs. Yeah.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Yeah. It's notable. The the lesson lesson is everyone has a price.
Speaker 2:It's just
Speaker 3:which I think, you know, industry's known forever. It just turns out that the price is oftentimes Yeah. In this case, three times higher what most people's price would have been.
Speaker 2:Windsurf had a price. They went to Google. But, of course, the product stayed with Cognition. One of our sponsors, Cognition's the makers of Devon. Devon is the software AI software engineer, crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team.
Speaker 2:We also have Ryan Peterson joining from Flexport. Does he have a price? Would he join TBBN full time for 3 and a half billion? Would you do it? Would you become a Yeah.
Speaker 2:You become There a you go. You become a mercenary for 3 and half Right? 3 and a half billion, you have to go you have to walk out of your office and say, I'm sorry, everyone. I'm becoming a podcaster.
Speaker 1:Oh, I think I could join you guys and run. Sorry.
Speaker 2:I'm not No. No. No. It's a life's work mission. You have to be full time.
Speaker 2:The offer is contingent. You wouldn't do it. You'd stick around. That's great. You are true that.
Speaker 2:You are true you are true missionary. Give me give me the lore again on your take on missionaries versus mercenaries in the AI wars. What what does history teach us about whether you should build an army of missionaries or mercenaries? Because I feel like some people are going both ways on this.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Then It's long time. But we were right before you joined, we were was just joking about Andrew Tulloch from Thinking Machines over the summer being I'm just imagining what the what the exchange with Mark was. But I'm a missionary of the honored that you would give me this 1 and a half billion dollar offer. You know, it shows massive faith in me.
Speaker 3:But, you know, I'm gonna stick with the team, stick with the mission, and, like, I hope we can find a way to collaborate. And then Zuck circles back with 3 and a half billion, and suddenly, it's it's like, alright. I think I think we're in business here. I think
Speaker 1:That what was rumored? 3 and a
Speaker 3:half billion?
Speaker 2:3 and a half billion's the rumor. Yeah. Wild. Wow.
Speaker 1:Well, yeah. You know, Machiavelli was the one who wrote the most about mercenaries and how useless they are when it comes to actual fighting.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 1:I thought this more in the context of Zuck's security team than I do in Tat's and his AI engine. It's like, when the bullets start flying, are these guys ready to take a you know, take one or are they gonna run away?
Speaker 3:Well, to Andrew's credit, he was at Meta for eleven years.
Speaker 2:Yeah. He is just going
Speaker 3:He's going home. Yeah. Small Yeah. Small price to bring to bring him home. Yeah.
Speaker 3:How was your weekend?
Speaker 1:Great. Great. Well, I'm here in Southern California. Not unfortunately, I can't visit you guys. I'm in Palos Verdes.
Speaker 1:We're having a Flexport customer conference starts this starts tonight. So been practicing my my big talk tomorrow. We're releasing a whole bunch of new technology and,
Speaker 2:you know, host
Speaker 1:a whole bunch of customers.
Speaker 2:At this point is, the the you know, I imagine, like, 100% of the FlexBoard team, they have to be missionaries, not mercenaries at this point because every day, you could wake up to a 1000% tariff on your entire business. And if you're a mercenary, you're gonna jump ship. So I imagine the team is kind of buckled down already for this. And Friday wasn't actually that crazy even though the market was crazy. But what
Speaker 3:was the Give us the give us the play by Friday morning.
Speaker 2:You said you had just
Speaker 3:gotten off of 2026 planning with the team and got hit with that.
Speaker 1:Thankfully, we do have job planning, and we replan all the time. But, yes, we just had a three day planning session in San Francisco with five forty of our leaders. And then, like, within hours of wrapping it up and saying goodbye to everybody, Trump announced a 100% duties on China. So and the last time he had these duties at this level back in April and May, we saw our volumes from China to US go down by 60%.
Speaker 2:Yeah. That's huge.
Speaker 1:That lasted for five weeks until they they relaxed the tariffs and then they came roaring back. So Yeah. We'll see. I mean, Polymarket has it. I think we've all learned a little bit.
Speaker 1:Stay calm. Polymarket rate has it at least an hour or two ago, added that 13% odds of this going through on November 1.
Speaker 2:Sure.
Speaker 1:So the market doesn't and then Trump also kinda signaled on Sunday that, hey. Maybe he's gonna ease off a little bit. So we're not we're not we're definitely not panicking on it. Props to the Flexport customs engineering team because we have this thing. It's called tariffs.flexport.com.
Speaker 1:It's a tariff calculator.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And these guys have to keep it updated, and the this administration loves putting out these the news on changes of customs policy on Friday afternoons. Yep. And these guys have worked so many weekends to keep you know, speaking of missionaries, they're working nights and weekends on duty, on call, on pager duty to to keep the tariff simulator up to speed with whatever the newest regs are.
Speaker 2:From your actual conversation with customers, what was the was there any material change to folks' business post liberation day? Like, I I know personally, like, several companies that actually took seriously, like, the the mission of reshoring. And now they're maybe, like, six months into building a different facility, but it's taking years. And but they're like like it it definitely flipped a switch from American dynamism is trendy to, like, there is a board level mandate to to actually consider reshoring in some way. How have your customers perceived it?
Speaker 2:How are people thinking about moving around the globe generally?
Speaker 1:That was definitely true in the first few months. But then when tariffs started hitting, you know, like, India tariffs right now are as high well, the China tariffs went up on Friday. But until Friday, India tariffs on India were just about the same as on China. Sure. So it was sort of you know, LatAm tariffs are pretty low, but it's it's unclear if that's, like, here to stay or just a temporary blip.
Speaker 1:You could see Trump changing that overnight. Yeah. So it's hard, like, supply chain, especially if you're doing your own manufacturing, you're setting up your own plant. That's like a multiyear four, five year minimum commitment that you're probably making before it pays back. And then after that, you know, return on capital would take even longer than that.
Speaker 1:So I think it's the smart I I think the folks you're talking to are probably in some sort of defense industry or something that's, like, more national security oriented, and you're like, yeah. We need to do this in The United States.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:For your typical company that's making apparel or home goods or other types of products, it's just like, it's not really there to come back to The US. I've met more companies who aren't gonna do it as a result of having Like, the worst case I've seen is a company that makes bicycles in The United States. Oh. And they've made it so that bicycles are duty free if you import them, but the bike parts are not. So these guys can't import parts
Speaker 2:without having to pay taxes
Speaker 1:the tariffs on the part. But their competitors just import whole bikes. So they're like, hey. We're just gonna start producing overseas.
Speaker 2:That's really rough. Yeah. It feels like at the end of the day, there's, like, so many little sub niches in the economy. Like, we there was a story in the Wall Street Journal about, the maker of Sharpie was successful in, like, reshoring all of Sharpie manufacturing, but Sharpies are probably not, you know, the target of, like, one specific tariff. And then also
Speaker 3:That's a critical industry for Trump.
Speaker 2:He's got
Speaker 3:a he's got a That
Speaker 2:was a hilarious one.
Speaker 1:That's true. The autographs get get signed.
Speaker 2:Yeah. What the hell has
Speaker 1:an auto pen? Will it be a Sharpie? Like, pen Sharpie?
Speaker 2:Auto pen? What do you mean?
Speaker 3:It's like a machine that does the signature.
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1:That's how Biden signed all of his value. No
Speaker 2:way. So, I mean, is is everyone just kind of glued to Truth Social now to to get the latest updates on, where this all goes, Or or are there other kind of, like, folks that are, like, reading the tea leaves and understanding, like, is Polymarket the the the definitive data source? Like, how are how are customers actually updating on, like, real this is?
Speaker 1:I think prediction markets are, yeah, incredibly valuable for this. Really useful. They're pretty thinly traded. Like, the one I cited only has a $146,000 of liquidity.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So
Speaker 1:it's not really getting used because one customer could make a hedge.
Speaker 2:Sure.
Speaker 1:They're gonna it's gonna cost them more than that. So, but there's there's still signaling that. Mhmm. Actually, you know, the best source for us is just going to DC and talking to people. I've been going there once a month, going back in a couple weeks, and just trying to get intel, what's really happening, what's coming down the pipe.
Speaker 1:I think the more you can build relationship. This administration is like you know, as as opposed to terrorists of I am as I am, they've been very open door to hearing our ideas, listening.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:They genuinely wanna help businesses. So they've been like we've been able to go in there and talk to them, and we're we're working on a couple things that we think we can reduce customs fraud. Like, there's this massive fraud that's happening in customs right now.
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah? Because you
Speaker 1:well, you just have this incentive if you're the tariffs go way up. Now there's an incentive to cheat that wasn't there a couple years ago Sure. Or even last year. And the way that you can cheat this is highly illegal.
Speaker 2:Do not do this. Do not do this.
Speaker 1:It's it's not worth it. I I I only have one rule is I'm never going to jail. Yeah. So don't have the rule.
Speaker 3:Simple man.
Speaker 1:Yep. But so the way that it works, and it's very rampant right now, is The United States is the only country in the world that allows foreign companies to import goods Mhmm. Into the country with no legal entity, no requirement to have a employee or person locally. So you can just import stuff into the country as a foreign company, and then you just lie on your declarations. And our customs CBP has agents in, like, 60 countries, but they're there for counter narcotics and anti terrorism stuff.
Speaker 1:They're not there for trade compliance and trade enforcement. So they're these companies just cheat, there's, like, basically no cons
Speaker 3:And if they get caught, they can spin up a new entity at home and just keep doing it. So there's zero downside. Or maybe the goods gets So so and the the the fraud is somebody is bringing in, let's say, $3,000,000 worth of goods, and they just say it's like, oh, it's $200,000. Something like that. Right?
Speaker 1:It just would be rate by
Speaker 3:a little time. And so, again, the the people that are punished through that are actual American companies or anybody doing it the right way that then has to compete with a player in the market who doesn't have the same cost structure as them because they're just not paying tariff. They're not
Speaker 1:Exactly. This is why we feel strongly about it. And, right now, on the Amazon marketplace, 60% of the sellers are nonresident importers. That's what we call this.
Speaker 3:I know. Because 60% of the time I buy something on Amazon, it's garbage.
Speaker 1:Yes. So, I love Amazon, but that that that is a that is becoming a problem.
Speaker 3:My personal experience. Yeah.
Speaker 1:So so we're we're we're we're we're trying to highlight this issue around Washington, and people have been really receptive to the to learn about it and to see how this works and to to some proposed, you know, ways that you might close this loophole. So yeah. That and the the way that what's happening where American companies are getting trapped in this is that they're allowing their factories to import the goods for them. So instead of them importing it, they're letting the factory import it and and feeling like everyone's their own personal lawyer and saying, hey. I didn't know about the fraud.
Speaker 1:It's not my fault. I just bought the goods in The United States. And if they were if the factory didn't pay duties, that's not my problem. Well, that is not how the law works. If if you're if you're paying for your goods at a price less than the duties alone would have been Mhmm.
Speaker 1:Then you must have you know, you should have known about this. And I think a court it it's gonna be hard to convince a jury. So I think you'll see some enforcement cases. But probably they just need to make it so a foreign company just like every other country in the world, you need to have a legal entity in the country in order to import goods.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Do you have an idea of the scale of, like, the sweet spot for the scale of that type of fraud? I imagine that you really can't get away with that if you're, you know, doing $10,000,000,000 of commerce, but there's probably a whole a whole host of little, you know, $20,000,000 operations that are maybe cheating
Speaker 1:or something. Pretty big. So I I analyzed it. In in The United States, ocean freight shipping manifests are public record.
Speaker 2:Oh, sure.
Speaker 1:And so I analyzed all of them last week, with with a team member of mine. We went through this. And what we found was about 10% of, trade has switched terms, to where the factory is now importing the goods Interesting. Is our estimate. Around 11%, which is just massive amount of fraud.
Speaker 1:And and probably gonna keep growing and growing until they until they take enforcement.
Speaker 3:Yeah. But is it even impossible to enforce? Like Well, yeah. Because wouldn't you have to, like, 10
Speaker 1:x decide? US it has to be a US entity with a my proposal, and we'll see if this lands somewhere, but it's, we have to be a US entity with a US bank account.
Speaker 3:With a US director that can go to prison if they
Speaker 1:US employee who could be held liable. Exactly. And then, you know, like, sure, you can always break the law, but if there's a threat of going to jail, you're probably not gonna do that most of the time. Most people wouldn't.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And we have a great country because it's much easier to start a business than it is to be a criminal.
Speaker 2:Yeah. No.
Speaker 1:It's And so most of the smart people become entrepreneurs instead of criminals. Whereas in other countries, that's not true. It's easier to be a criminal than to start a business.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Can you give us an update on import genius? We were reading a New York Times article, and import genius was cited. And we were just kind of like, woah. Like, you know, we we we know that.
Speaker 2:We we, like, we know the founders. But, I'd love to know, like like, what's the state of the business? It seems like you're still finding interesting data from that. Like, how what like, what role does Import Genius play in the in the overall, like, community right now?
Speaker 1:Yeah. So Import Genius is a data service that takes those public shipping records I mentioned and makes them searchable and accessible. And so that's the data that I was using to figure out looking into this fraud. A lot of different journalists use it to find
Speaker 2:That's cool.
Speaker 1:What's going on in the world. Yeah. They're all kinda finding digging up fraud of some kind. Well, that's that there's there's lots of other use cases besides investigating fraud, but that's what tends to get into this.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I imagine you can just use it to understand, like, are are volumes falling or rising or what rates are, etcetera?
Speaker 1:Exactly. We use it for market share analysis. We use it for lead generation, for logistics companies, helping to, like, use it to find companies that we should talk to about their freight. And people use it for factories, like, to find you're looking to do research on a factory, kinda see what their shipping history is. So
Speaker 2:Yeah. Overall, I mean, maybe to close out, I'd love to know just kind of like there's obviously a lot of volatility with the tariff and the and the overall trade war. I don't even like, it's it's just been such a, like, a low rumble for the last years for the last year for this entire administration. I'm sure it's been a lot louder in your world. But, does it feel like we're closer to having resolution?
Speaker 2:Like, when we talked the way we we talked last time, I was like I was like, I think the business community, and I think you agreed with me, the business community just wants something to stick, a deal. If it's 50% forever, we can build our models off of that. We can invest against that. But uncertainty is particularly destabilizing to The US economy, to global trade, etcetera. Whatever it lands at, let's just get there now.
Speaker 2:Does it feel like we're closer than ever or getting farther away? Like, how do you feel about just, like, the level of volatility in global trade?
Speaker 1:It it started to feel like things were calming down until really, I think Trump the administration going after India is what kinda set off to be like, oh, okay. Maybe these aren't as stable as if, like, the negotiation can just quickly spiral on a country like that that Yeah. In a lot of ways, we have a lot in common with India and should be an ally of ours. The China this current level on China is definitely at a our our view is anything above about 60% duty is gonna be an embargo level where almost all trade stops, and we're so we're well above that right now. I don't think that that's where the administration wants this to land.
Speaker 1:I think they'd they'd probably like it to be a little bit below the embargo level and give them a ratchet make it a ratchet where they can put it above the embargo level on a moment's notice with when when they don't do what they want. The I I I wish we could say we had the long term stability. Like, if the current rates on Latin America lasted, it would be really kind of very clear for folks of what policy that the administration is putting forward is, hey. We're gonna treat the Southern South America, Latin America as, like, kind of our backyard, our hemispheric partners. We're gonna
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Encourage kind of manufacturing there for stuff that doesn't make sense in The United States. I think it's very hard for them to come out and say that overtly because they are like, the the actual message is no. Make it in America.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 1:In the in The United States Of America, not America.
Speaker 3:America. What is what's the latest on with the ports automation at the ports?
Speaker 1:Oh, it's illegal. That's the latest. No. It's not illegal. It's it's against the contract of the union for the next, I think, five more years from now on the West on the East Coast and four more years on the West Coast, I wanna say.
Speaker 2:And our direct competitors are doing the same thing. Right?
Speaker 1:Say that again. That would be the
Speaker 2:other so the world is on And and and I'm sure the rest of the world is also banning automation. Right? So we'll so we'll be equally competitive. And, of course, it's like, no. Singapore is probably extremely automated.
Speaker 2:Right?
Speaker 1:Contract ends in, like, four or five years. Okay. And we'll see. But in the meantime, there will be no automation in The US ports.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So we're behind. Makes it even harder
Speaker 3:to hear.
Speaker 1:By the way, here in LA, the Long Beach Container Terminal is an automated terminal. I think that's what kinda kicked off the union and and and pissed them off and made them realize this is, a real thing when they put it in about ten years ago. It's it's really impressive. Like, it's a giant robot that's, like, a square mile of all autonomous trucks driving around, and there's no people in there. Yeah.
Speaker 1:And so that we do have the it's like a solved problem. The technology exists. It works. It's, like, really efficient. Really cool to look at.
Speaker 1:Highly encouraged doing a tour of that.
Speaker 2:Pretty cool.
Speaker 1:Flexport's gonna take a bunch of our customers on the tour of that at our conference here in a couple days.
Speaker 2:There any other, like, geological or geographic, areas in The US that could be ports, could be automated ports, but don't have any port infrastructure or and are just like, oh, it's some houses or something we could buy or it's just like kind of an abandoned beach.
Speaker 1:It it you can't because, the union claims every inch of American soil
Speaker 2:Okay. Of every
Speaker 1:inch of American coastline. So even if today, they're not there, they they still
Speaker 2:claim spirit. Okay.
Speaker 1:Yes. And they will show up.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So you can't do it. So you can't
Speaker 1:The thing that you know, one area I'd really love to see America take advantage of is our river network. Mhmm. And and, like, actually, this point is, like, if Latin America were to become a much bigger trading partner for us, then you would predict that the New Orleans should be the biggest port in The United States.
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah.
Speaker 3:Makes sense.
Speaker 1:If you have the whole Mississippi River network and you can get everywhere
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:All the way connecting up to the Great Lakes, up to Canada. Like, you could really make an amazing but there's almost no container shipping on that network in part because of union contracts and, like
Speaker 3:A Flexport a Flexport river boat would go really hard. Maybe you could put a casino on it too to make, you know, make it really American.
Speaker 1:100%. I really think, like, of Sparge network running all over. And and, like, replace a lot of the trucks on the road too because it's so much more efficient, cheaper, greener, like, cooler in so many ways. And, yeah, I I haven't looked into the gambling laws. But
Speaker 2:In in international waters, you can, of course. So, you know, you just gamble down the Amazon, then gamble all through the Caribbean, and then gamble up the Mississippi. It's the future. Anyway, thanks so much for stopping
Speaker 3:by. Line. Congratulations.
Speaker 1:He's a great guy.
Speaker 3:I I gotta
Speaker 1:I gotta idea with you guys more. I think we'll probably come up with some good product ideas for you.
Speaker 2:Think I think a koretsu of gambling and shipping is just a perfect
Speaker 3:Mystery boxes.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Everyone's acting everyone's asking what's the Flexport second act, and I think it's
Speaker 1:I would like to do something in futures actually where you could hedge the price of shipping and, you know, maybe that's a partnership with us in one of these prediction markets. It'd be pretty cool.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. That makes a ton of sense.
Speaker 1:It makes it happen.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean, isn't that the story of, Southwest? They bought a bunch of fuel futures, and then they were like, had, the ability pricing power for, like, a number of years. I don't know how apocryphal that story is.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. I think I read about that. We haven't done any hedging yet. I'm always telling our finance team to do it, and then they come back with reasons why you don't need to or something, but it seems like we should.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It'd be fun. Turn it into a hedge fund. It'd be good.
Speaker 1:If you can't today there's not really, a futures there's a couple of these marketplace they're trying to form, like, futures on actual price of ship container shipping. Those don't exist yet Mhmm. In a way that's really viable. But if that existed, we would for sure start I would like to when we should be the smartest people in the market. Right?
Speaker 1:Like Yeah. It'd be at some point, like, we're doing all this commodity shipping stuff. We should just trade shipping for sure.
Speaker 2:Maybe. Maybe. Well, when you announce it, come back and tell us all about it. And good luck with the customer conference. Thanks so much for stopping by.
Speaker 2:We'll talk to
Speaker 3:you See you.
Speaker 2:You,
Speaker 1:guys. Let me
Speaker 2:talk about Figma. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. You can get started for free.
Speaker 3:Jeremy Gaffan asking the important question. Why hasn't someone done calendar invites for phone numbers? It's the last thing keeping email in the loop. Totally agree. Load to bang.
Speaker 3:Gets gets to such an awkward spot in a, you know, in a meeting Yep. Where you're you're going back and Always cool.
Speaker 2:Every text and then have to
Speaker 3:And then okay. Who's gonna who's gonna bite the bullet?
Speaker 2:If Apple wants to really dominate an iMessage world, they should, like, they should figure out how to add that to the iMessage flywheel so, like, you're even more locked in because your iCloud account is the one. I mean, I guess they do that with with the calendar app, but everyone's kind of on Gmail. So it's a little bit rough. It would be fun. Steve Jobs tasting cars, by the way.
Speaker 2:Everyone's having fun with the Steve Jobs,
Speaker 1:by the way.
Speaker 3:Black on tan is Black on it. Very good. And, of course, I think we've talked about it on the show before, but he would buy a new car every six months, so he never had to register the plate.
Speaker 2:He have gotten a custom plate. He should have gotten Apple on the plate. Just let everyone know.
Speaker 3:Just let everyone know.
Speaker 2:There you go. What's wrong with getting a custom plate? Shout out license to post on Instagram.
Speaker 3:So there was some interesting alpha coming out of AlphaSense.
Speaker 2:Oh,
Speaker 3:yeah? Richard shared a screenshot of it.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 3:He summarizes it. An interview with a former OpenAI employee that came over the weekend confirming my hunch, which I already wrote about in the article last week, that the biggest friction between OpenAI and Microsoft is around infrastructure capacity. OpenAI requests were, quote, leading to massive amounts of CapEx potential that Microsoft would be on the hook for. Yep. Sam basically saying to Satya, spend a trillion dollars for me.
Speaker 2:I want to be the leaser. And Satya's like, I want to be the leaser. And everyone's like, we want a lease. Don't want to we don't want
Speaker 3:to Two, Microsoft is getting a is getting a request from its biggest customer investment that they want an almost inexhaustible amount of GPUs. That's fine in terms of predicting your demand for a one year period from today, say. But what about in the year 2029 when you end up having all of this capacity that you've constructed? What does that market look like? No one really knows.
Speaker 3:That led to some friction between OpenAI and Microsoft. Richard says, my take on this is that Microsoft is being smart and letting others take the risk, Oracle and Neo Clouds, as numbers for CapEx are reaching crazy numbers. When things come back to earth and many of these firms face difficulties, Microsoft is left standing to pick up the distressed assets.
Speaker 2:Tyler has a take. What you got?
Speaker 5:Yeah. I mean, this is kind of what Doug O'Loughlin was saying.
Speaker 2:He
Speaker 5:was saying that Microsoft, super early on, they were, like, super bullish. Right? They're in OpenAI early on. And then they kind of take a step back.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:I think he was saying that, oh, they're gonna get back in the game. Yep. So, hopefully, you know, hopefully, we get the the the gigawatts set up by by 2027, then we'll have, you know, AGI God.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It does seem like, Satya's doubling down on getting back in the live player AI race. He kind of delegated a couple tasks to Microsoft for Business to someone else in the Microsoft leadership team, so he's able to spend more time on AI. The question is, is he still happy to be a leaser? That could be true.
Speaker 2:He could say, yeah. I wanna I wanna lease even more from someone else and do a whole bunch of off balance sheet debt, essentially. There's a there's a crazy post from, September 24, Sebastian Raschka. This is way deeper in the deck. I don't know if you're gonna be able to find it.
Speaker 2:It's on page 94. But, Sebastian says, no one understood me back then. And Nick, who is a famous OpenAI hater, shares a screenshot of the information reporting on OpenAI's mega deal with NVIDIA and says, OpenAI would lease NVIDIA chips instead of owning them. And so Nick says, news. OpenAI to lease NVIDIA chips rather than buying them.
Speaker 2:LMAO. Like, they don't even have the money to actually buy them. And back then, in 09/24/2025, Sebastian said, actually, I think that's smart. This way, you don't have to deal with reselling and recycling old chips every few years. NVIDIA chips should be offered as a subscription.
Speaker 2:And so, you were talking to Dylan Patel about this. You were saying, like, what is the value of an a 100? What is the value of an h 100 in five years? Will you still be able to produce economic value? Yeah.
Speaker 2:It's still gonna be in able to inference Lama three.
Speaker 3:It might it might turn on, but that doesn't mean it'll be Yeah. Economically Yeah. Rational to leverage.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And and and my my take is that is that, and what I've been digging around when we talk to people, like, talked to Karim at at Ramp about this. Like, there are companies that have found useful, like, economically valuable uses for Llama three just somewhere in their software stack. Like, you know, with the the the ramp example, which, of course, is sponsored, but it's a good example, is just like you scan a receipt. You need to understand, like, what category is this expense in, and you can just take the name of the restaurant and what's on the line items, put it in llama three, and very cheaply get back, like, what category is it?
Speaker 2:It's like a classic, just like text interpretation transformation problem. Easy to Yeah. You were working on
Speaker 3:that internal tool for horse identification. Yes.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Exactly. But, like, once you develop
Speaker 3:that horse.
Speaker 2:Clock my horse. I gotta tell the story about, my my quiz for you in a minute. But, but once you develop a tool that has, like, economic value inside your organization, you're very likely to just leave that there. Like your database. You know?
Speaker 2:Like, okay. Yeah. We have a database. We have a cron job that runs every night that, you know, cleans up the database, tags some data, moves some stuff around, creates some summary analytics. Let's just let that run forever.
Speaker 2:And, yeah, it costs us a thousand bucks a day or something. And I think that will be the case for a lot of those, like, GPT 3.5 class workloads, GPT four class workloads. So I don't know how bad it will be to just own a whole bunch of old compute, but, it's certainly it's certainly risky because you could get caught and the value of those could go to basically zero, and that would be really bad. And so, it is it is funny to see, you know, the question about, like, will Microsoft actually go and buy a bunch of stuff? Like, what is getting back in the game really mean?
Speaker 3:Yeah. I mean, what it what it looks like right now is Satya watching a bunch of different players lever up massively Yep. While he sits back and is risk off. But you can imagine, again, we've talked about this a number of times. A point could be a year from now.
Speaker 3:It could be six months from now. Could be years from now, three years from now. It's really hard to say where he comes in and gets very aggressive on buying up all these distressed assets that have done all the hard work but got over levered and don't have the demand to not be in breach of various covenants.
Speaker 2:Yeah. If the bubble just keeps inflating or things kind of all pencil out like people hope
Speaker 3:Yeah. That's really the tinfoil hat theory. Trump just wanted to take some of the heat off the AI bubble, so he announced a new trade war.
Speaker 2:Told you. Bubbles over.
Speaker 3:We got there was first ever message in the LinkedIn stream.
Speaker 2:Let's go.
Speaker 1:You don't
Speaker 3:know, we do stream on LinkedIn.
Speaker 2:Let's
Speaker 3:go. LinkedIn doesn't Thank you. Vest very much. But Sham Moheit in the LinkedIn chat, can you tell the deployment percentage security to subscribe dot dot dot? I don't know what that means, but I like that you're engaging In the LinkedIn chat.
Speaker 3:On LinkedIn, holding it down.
Speaker 2:Hopefully, New York Times
Speaker 3:New York Times called us Sports Center for LinkedIn.
Speaker 2:And here we are.
Speaker 3:Here you are. You're the first
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 3:Chat room general. Thank you.
Speaker 2:On the on the question of, on the question of AGI timelines and is this a bubble, we, over the weekend, you got a new phone. And, even though AGI is just a few thousand days away, it completely
Speaker 3:depending on completely
Speaker 2:destroyed your iMessage integration. And so I on Saturday at noon, I get I get a message from your email, not your iMessage account because I have your iMessage pinned with your with your contact information.
Speaker 3:It was a pretty serious
Speaker 2:Yeah. It's just perfect, you know, blah blah blah, this other thing. What do you think? You know, I I I you know, you weren't exactly asking me to wire money anywhere, but it was a serious question.
Speaker 3:It was a it was a million dollar question.
Speaker 2:It was a million dollar question. And so so I'm like so I screenshot it, sent it back to you, and I say, this is coming from an email. So I have to do a check of humanity, something only Jordy could know what is my dream dressage horse because that's something only you could know until you've listened to this episode. Now you will know. And you And I botched the kiss.
Speaker 2:Well, yeah, you quote the Geordie that I was talking to says Danish warm blood, of course. Next question. I said, wrong. It's a Lipizzaner dancing horse, of course. And you said, I knew I was forgetting the Lipizzan.
Speaker 2:And I said, sure. Sure. Well, likely story.
Speaker 3:And And so then you had to you had to you said pull up WorldCoin.
Speaker 2:Yep. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Switched to I switched phones. Needed to deactivate the other. Liquid glass is pretty mid. And I said, a likely story feels feels like a downgrade all around.
Speaker 3:Wait. Before we do that, Mark and Michael Miraflor have jumped into the LinkedIn.
Speaker 2:Let's go. Welcome.
Speaker 3:Glad to see it. Hold it down. Alright. Mark's already back.
Speaker 2:Mark, let's go.
Speaker 3:It was fun while it lasted.
Speaker 2:Amazing. Could have been me.
Speaker 3:LinkedInese. This is Missouma.
Speaker 2:Anyway, if you want to stay compliant Go go to Vanta. Automate compliance management risk. Proof trust continuously. Vantage trust management platform takes the manual work. How do you secure your compliance process?
Speaker 2:Replace it with continuous automation, whether you're pursuing your first framework or managing a complex program.
Speaker 3:Okay. Go, Sam. So as you know, I ordered my new iPhone Yes. Weeks before you strolled into the iPhone into the Apple Store and just bought one off the shelf.
Speaker 2:I wasn't even there for a phone.
Speaker 3:So I was I was forced to wait. The anticipation was building. Yep. I had high hopes for the new phone. The second I started using it, I I I thought this feels like a downgrade in every single way except the the actual quality of the images.
Speaker 2:The cameras are great.
Speaker 3:The cameras are great. Everything else from the way that it feels Yes. Feels cheap in comparison to my titanium iPhone. The liquid glass, while I think it looks cool
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:It is, very mid in practice.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 3:It's everywhere you go. Everywhere you go. It feels like overly everything's overly animated.
Speaker 2:Sure.
Speaker 3:And I'm already getting a lag Yes. On the animations. Yes. Just like why? Like why?
Speaker 3:I don't I don't need it to animate. Just like be smooth and instant Yeah. And don't lag.
Speaker 2:I have a couple takes on Liquid Glass I can drop. We can also get Tyler's review. What what was it like chat is going
Speaker 3:off right now.
Speaker 2:Was it like upgrading from the very first iPhone to to a modern iPhone? Are you enjoying the three g? You were on the two g iPhone. Right? The one you actually had to plug it in to the wall to talk to people.
Speaker 2:You you you've you've fully acclimated to Liquid Glass. Right? You you have any problems?
Speaker 5:Yeah. I think it's great.
Speaker 3:I mean, it's definitely it's it's so here's my
Speaker 2:They'll get used to it.
Speaker 3:They thought to themselves, we don't need to make a better user experience. We just need to make a different one. There's a little bit that. Noticeably different because it's not better.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 3:Nothing about it from using it for a few days have I thought, oh, this is a lot better than how it used to be. Yeah.
Speaker 5:I I think most of my experience that's like, oh, this is like so much better is is probably mostly because I was going from an iPhone 11, which is like seven years old
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:Yeah. To this. Yeah. It's probably not actually the iOS. Yeah.
Speaker 5:But so, I mean, I it feels way faster Yeah. Obviously. But it it's hard to tell.
Speaker 3:LinkedIn chat is absolutely going off. It's Mark. Ryan.
Speaker 2:Ryan, thank you to everyone supporting us on LinkedIn. We are bringing news to LinkedIn for the first time ever. We're on a tear. Apple, first, they gotta get on Graphite code review for the age of Graphite helps teams at GitHub ship higher quality software faster. Okay.
Speaker 2:So couple problems for me. The Safari, with Liquid Glass feels like way harder to use. Like, I don't know how to get to the actual tab view. There's a whole bunch of new muscle memory. Just opening a new tab, I feel like I have to click twice.
Speaker 3:Yeah. And and there's whole bunch of read is like, okay. You added more animations, but it's not better.
Speaker 2:It does feel like there's a few things that now require two clicks or three clicks. Yeah. That used to just require one click or two clicks. And so that's been annoying. I'm sure I'll develop the muscle memory.
Speaker 2:The new phone app feels very difficult for me to use. I I haven't been able to figure out, like, where all the different calls are. All these things I think will sort out. I haven't enjoyed how hard it is to take a screenshot of a an iMessage chat because the person's name appears in glass. And so if you're trying to line it up to screenshot just, one message and show the person's name to say, like, hey.
Speaker 2:Jordy texted me this, and I'm sending that to Tyler. Jordy said this funny thing. You know? Here. Well, like, I'm automatically gonna see through the glass, like, the last thing he said that could be something different that I don't necessarily wanna share.
Speaker 2:And so just the screenshots of iMessages have been a little bit tricky for me to get around.
Speaker 3:I will say liquid glass looks cool. It does look cool. But it's worse to use. Yep. And that makes it bad design.
Speaker 2:I think I'll get used to it. Oh, the other thing on the on the actual hardware design is I noticed that, the plateau, just completely ruins the ability to use wireless chargers Because you put it down on the wireless charger
Speaker 3:Well, you have an update to the new wireless
Speaker 2:charger. Know. So I need a new car. Great. Thanks.
Speaker 3:Nick says, most people I know gain, like, 20 IQ when advising their friends' lives and lose 20 IQ when doing strategy for their own lives. Rune says, why is this? It makes absolutely no sense but it's true. Guy says, solution, befriend yourself.
Speaker 1:That's very funny. This is
Speaker 3:totally this is this this this is it's usually that it's very easy to give simple advice Yep. To your friends. And when you're trying to strategize in your own life, you end up making it super complicated because you have all this Yep. You have so many you have max the most information on your life, more information on your life than anyone else. Yep.
Speaker 3:You're like trying to do one of the Tyler red string boards. And usually, it's just a lot more simple.
Speaker 2:Yeah. No. I agree.
Speaker 3:You're sort of forced to make things simple when you're giving advice to a friend because you know, okay. Here's their home life. Here's their work life. Here's what you should do.
Speaker 2:Here's a life hack for doing strategy for your own life. Collect an immense amount of data about yourself. Put it all in Julius and analyze your life Yes. And make Julius dot AI IQ. Your the data AI data analyst that works for you.
Speaker 2:Don't even think about what to order for breakfast without first loading every previous breakfast you've had into julius.ai and querying
Speaker 3:Running analysis.
Speaker 2:Running analysis on it. What? Should I have the croissant or the breakfast burrito? Julius. Why not both?
Speaker 2:It's your personal Jarvis.
Speaker 3:Julius It is.
Speaker 2:Julius, should I go to bed at nine or ten? Julius, should I have a second Diet Coke today?
Speaker 3:They really should give the they really should give the Siri button to Julius.
Speaker 2:Yeah. We would say, oh, they'll do a deal with Anthropic. They'll do a deal with polar plexity. Apple, Tim Cook, do a deal with Julius dot AI. You gotta do it.
Speaker 2:Get Raul in the building. Chat with your data. Get expert level insights. Can we Tyler. Sorry.
Speaker 3:Kylie Jenner is working to make Snapchat a thing again according to according to Jasmine. What's going on with Snapchat? Yes. What did she do?
Speaker 5:Yeah. So I I don't know exactly what it's she's working on. I think she's it's been announced yet.
Speaker 3:I But it said tomorrow on October 11, it said tomorrow on Snapchat. So Okay.
Speaker 2:Yesterday, you said tomorrow. Just do it. Just do it.
Speaker 5:So we do know some retail retail traders who are very long Snapchat. So may maybe I could consult with them. Although, I don't know if these particular traders are the most, you know, up to date on on latest news.
Speaker 2:But I mean, this did this move the market? Like, we need to check-in with our resident retail trader on the Snapchat price. I mean, I don't know. I've I've heard I've heard a number of people for a long time when I was doing YouTube videos, they would pitch me on, like, you gotta do a Snapchat version because in the, what was it? In, like, 2022, 2023, Snapchat was very kind of liberal with their version of TikTok's creator fund.
Speaker 2:And so if you were getting a lot of views on Snapchat, you could be making a ton of money. I I think you have a buddy who's making who took a there were a couple YouTubers who took their content, made it Snapchat native, and then got big creator payouts, basically, like, higher CPMs just because Snapchat was like, we want to bootstrap, like, the real serious creator market, not just, you know, Snapchat with your friends.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Think they distributed probably hundreds of millions of dollars.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. To get like real shows. Get like Mr. Beast level shows.
Speaker 2:Tyler, what you got?
Speaker 5:So it seems that, she was, announcing a new music video
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 5:That was launched on Snapchat. I I guess she has been off Snapchat for some time and is returning.
Speaker 2:She does music? Interesting. I didn't know that. Well, if you wanna generate audio, go to fall. Generative media platform for developers.
Speaker 2:The world's best generative image, video, and audio models all in one place. Develop and fine tune models with serverless GPUs and on demand clusters.
Speaker 3:Did you see that Red Bull put Yuki Sonoda in a bucket of water next to a high voltage power outlet?
Speaker 2:No. I had no idea that I didn't understand this image at all. What why why is this
Speaker 3:I think he's doing a cold plunge.
Speaker 5:Okay. And it just happens to be
Speaker 3:like this. It's like Red
Speaker 2:Bull is the type of team to
Speaker 3:That is absolutely electric.
Speaker 2:That is awesome. Get after it.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Risk gone.
Speaker 2:Risk Should run through my Wait.
Speaker 3:I had a question for you. So so I I watched the film
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:Over the weekend. What?
Speaker 2:The third film ever.
Speaker 3:I watched the film.
Speaker 2:Cinephile. Film ever. Congratulations.
Speaker 3:I saw
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 3:Brad Pitt play Sunny Hayes in the movie f one. Yes. F one. I watched it in two parts.
Speaker 2:It's okay.
Speaker 3:Because
Speaker 2:As the filmmaker intended.
Speaker 3:Filmmaker intended because he knew he knew I would get sleepy. And check how much time was left in the movie. Yeah. I was like, this is movie about racing cars around a track. Can't be that long.
Speaker 3:Oh, we got another hour hour and thirty minutes. It's the last time going to bed. But the thing that I thought was interesting is somebody who's seen I haven't seen two hands worth of films, but I've seen a a few. Yep. Interesting to have a a fictional story tied into current reality
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:Yeah. In f one. Yeah. Have you seen a movie that that's done exactly that, right, where there's like Lewis Hamilton and other characters like blended in Yes. To
Speaker 2:It's rare.
Speaker 1:But rare.
Speaker 3:Yeah. But they pulled it off well. Yeah. It felt like you were in the world. It felt like you were in modern day Formula One Yeah.
Speaker 3:And just watching.
Speaker 2:I mean, in The Big Short, they're like in Lehman Brothers. Right? In Goldman Sachs. That's my version of f one.
Speaker 3:Yeah. But not with, like, the actual people. True. It's not like the managing director at Lehman Brothers is, like, playing himself.
Speaker 2:Sometimes there's little cameos, but nowhere near as much as, like, this is.
Speaker 3:There was, 200 cameos.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No.
Speaker 2:That that that was a very cool, very cool feature of the film. Yeah. I did enjoy f one. It was it was it was a good movie. Maybe the movie of the summer.
Speaker 2:People were asking, like, what is the movie of the year? Like, there was no shelling point. There was no Barbenheimer this year, and I think f one probably did the best. The the real the real one that's, like, going viral is the k pop Demon Hunters movie on Netflix. That's the one that's, like, getting the most attention, like Squid Game level, but a little less
Speaker 3:Never heard of it.
Speaker 2:You've never heard of k pop Demon Hunters?
Speaker 3:You're telling me this for the first time.
Speaker 2:Are you kidding?
Speaker 3:Actually, yeah.
Speaker 2:You've never heard of K pop Demon Hunters? No.
Speaker 1:It's crazy.
Speaker 2:No. It is like a massive viral success. It's a massive viral success. Me run through let me run through my pitch to the US government to give Dylan Patel at Semi Analysis $50,000,000. This was my take today.
Speaker 2:So, we had Dylan Patel on the show on Friday talking about inference max. This is an independent benchmark where he takes NVIDIA GPUs. Yeah.
Speaker 3:Pull up this video
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah.
Speaker 3:From Semi Analysis. This is why
Speaker 2:I had to talk about it.
Speaker 3:Semi Analysis is potentially the greatest
Speaker 2:It's amazing.
Speaker 3:Post all time. They say was watching the Georgia game and noticed Warkesh Patel There
Speaker 2:we go.
Speaker 3:Warkesh
Speaker 2:There we
Speaker 3:go. Was literally on TV.
Speaker 2:The soundboard. This is good. Yeah. A lot of people were saying
Speaker 3:It's just so funny. He's he's like in Tennessee Yeah. Friday calling into TBPN with the most unhinged setup we've ever had for our guests.
Speaker 2:It was great.
Speaker 3:And then he pops up here at, of course, this is not Dwight Pesh if you've been living under a data center.
Speaker 2:He yeah. He's talking to big game. Oh, I'm out here because there's a lot of power. He's like, power on the field. Let's go Bulldogs, apparently.
Speaker 2:No. Obviously, he's there for work as well. But it is it is an amazing amazing clip. Is his
Speaker 3:is his buddy, like, throwing like, waving money around?
Speaker 2:Something. I don't know. Yeah. What is going on there?
Speaker 3:Cheap you rich.
Speaker 2:They are rich. That's amazing. I'm so glad he got Okay.
Speaker 3:Get into your get into your rant.
Speaker 2:So basically, Dylan Patel, one of the greatest analysts of all time, the GOATs, he launched Inference Max last week. It's this website that you can go to, and you can select one of three open source models, Lama three, DeepSeq, and and GPT OSS, then you can select what type of workload do you wanna do. Do you wanna do document summarization, put 8,000 tokens in, get 1,000 out? Do you wanna do just chat back and forth, or do you wanna do more of a reasoning deep research type project? And then you can say, what what architecture do you wanna use?
Speaker 2:What the whole software stack? And then what what GPUs do you wanna run it on? Do you wanna run it on NVIDIA or AMD? And so you get all these different charts. It's put the timeline in turmoil more than one time already.
Speaker 2:And and it's been really interesting because my take, and I'm interested, Jordy, if you if you have a similar take, like, it has two things have felt true. One is that NVIDIA has just been running away with it, and AMD has been playing catch up for years. And what Inference Max shows, at least me, is that AMD is actually better in certain areas. And that was kind of interesting because I'd heard the story of, like, AMD is getting their stuff together. They're fixing bugs.
Speaker 2:George Hotts is pressuring them. Lisa Hsu is talking to George Hotts and Dylan Patel about what to do. And so the narrative of, like, NVIDIA is 100% dominant, and they no one can touch them, that kind of breaks when you look at the inference max. And in fact, seems like AMD is doing great stuff in multiple places. And for certain workloads, you'd wanna pick AMD on a total cost to own basis.
Speaker 2:It's not just about, like, raw speed all the time. It's about how much does it cost, how much energy does it use to produce a set amount of tokens. Right?
Speaker 3:Yeah. And it and it it makes it even more surprising that they had to give away so much of their company in order to get OpenAI to be
Speaker 2:That's a good point.
Speaker 3:You know? Or or Sam just exerted max leverage and just wanted to own Yep. 10% of AMD.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean, my my update from inference, Max, is that AMD and NVIDIA are not as far away as people thought. But, I mean, we'll have to dig into it, and, obviously, it depends on a lot of different factors. And the true frontier models are a different thing, and those aren't in the benchmark because they're not open source. The other the other, like, kind of update for me was around was around open source.
Speaker 2:So I we we covered this, and we talked about this with Dylan. Like, when GPTOSS, the open source model from OpenAI launched, it was kind of like, well, okay. Like, yeah. It's like, you know, doing okay on benchmarks. Nothing really special going on there.
Speaker 2:And it just kind of, like, fizzled out, and it was like, yeah. It's cool. People were excited about it. But, like, the general tenor wasn't like, oh, DeepSeq's destroyed. But on inference max, you can see that GPT OSS is performing, like, right at the same level, above on some, above below on others.
Speaker 2:And so, it feels like in terms of the, like, commoditization of the open source software, open source LLM market, like, OpenAI has very much caught up and is not, like, well behind, DeepSeek. And so that was kind of an interesting update. I feel like this data, we're gonna get more interesting data points from this. We're gonna get more, just a better understanding of, like, not just how things do on benchmarks, like how smart the models are, but actually, like, if you're doing a big workload with them, like, which one is more affordable. Right?
Speaker 2:So that's kinda interesting. But notably absent so it's just AMD and NVIDIA right now. And when we talked to Dylan, he said, We're bringing on Tranium from Amazon and we're bringing on TPU from Google. They are bigger companies, and they're moving a little bit slower, and they're not selling a ton of these things yet. AMD and NVIDIA sell a lot more chips.
Speaker 2:And so t TPU and Tranium will come in the next couple months, but we're working with them. But notably absent was Huawei, which we've been tracking and we've heard that, you know
Speaker 3:Huawei is not my friend.
Speaker 2:Huawei has this CloudMatrix three eighty four that competes with NVIDIA's NVL 72, the rack scale compute. And the the high level number is that NVIDIA at rack scale is 2.5 times more energy efficient. So the whole pitch with the CloudMatrix three eighty four was that it can do the same stuff as NVIDIA. Like, it can gen it can run the same models. Yep.
Speaker 2:And it's like, we got it.
Speaker 3:The problem is we're going to an era where energy is gonna be the primary bottleneck. Yep. And so there's not a lot of incentive to run Totally. Ship, you know, racks that are that are inefficient.
Speaker 2:And also, like, being 60% less efficient is wildly different than being 10% less efficient. Right? Like, these are really, really important. China would say, oh, well, we have all this we had three gorgeous dam. Like, we have plenty of cheap energy.
Speaker 2:It's like for a while, and then eventually, you gotta build a 100 nuclear reactors, not just 10. And so I want I want Huawei to be on inference max. I don't think NVIDIA is gonna pay for that because they don't want to have Yeah. You know, Huawei chips in there. They might be hard to buy.
Speaker 2:I don't even know how you buy Huawei chips in America, but I think the US government could get it done. And so I'm calling on David Sachs to put up the money. I don't know if they actually would have to pay this much. Dylan said something like $50,000,000 came together across NVIDIA and all their partners to pay for this. It was a lot of chips.
Speaker 2:And so I'd love to see, America foot the bill, the American taxpayer foot the bill to get some Huawei chips, give them to seminalysis, get them running on inference max so we can know the true gap in compute power. And this is important because we know the gap in rare earths. Like, China refines or China mines six times as much rare earth as many rare earth elements as The United States. They refine those almost 99% of the rare earths in the world, and they produce about 85 to 90% of the world's rare earth magnets. And so the gap in rare earth is massive.
Speaker 2:Now we know that America's head ahead in AI compute and GPU manufacturing, but we just don't know how big that gap is really, and I feel like that's a really important, you know, negotiating point and point of negotiating leverage in the trade war. And putting Huawei on Inference Max would help us understand the nature of that gap and how big it is and how much leverage we actually have. So Yeah. Who knows where the money will come from, but I'd love to see Huawei on Inference Max. And, you know, if you wanna learn more about it, go over to Semi Analysis and check it out.
Speaker 2:Anyway.
Speaker 3:Patrick, O'Shaughnessy, and the team at Colossus have a new looks like a cover story with none other than friend of the show, Josh Kushner, dropping tomorrow. Yeah. We should hopefully read through it. For sure. Michael Spiker says, real men lose their shirts in natural gas, not trading synthetic shitcoin futures at 50 x leverage.
Speaker 2:What is 50 x leverage by? Like, you just like
Speaker 5:I think
Speaker 3:it's a typo.
Speaker 2:Pretty funny.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Tyler, figure out figure out some alpha in in natural gas and start trading it.
Speaker 2:It is interesting. We haven't heard we haven't heard about the natural gas trade in, like, the retail circles or kind of the general. Like like, all of
Speaker 3:Yeah. We
Speaker 2:You know, like, all like, basically, everyone in Matcha
Speaker 3:gas means a retail army. Yeah. I mean category.
Speaker 2:Years ago, as NVIDIA was pivoting from a graphics card maker to an AI accelerator maker, similar chip, but, you know, it was becoming a part of the AI narrative. The AI narrative was developing around NVIDIA. The second phase of that was everyone learned what TSMC was. Then everyone learned what ASML was. Then everyone learned what SK Hynix was because that's the full stack.
Speaker 2:You design the chip in at NVIDIA. You make it at TSMC with equipment from ASML and and memory from SK Hynix. And so those became the four companies that everyone knew about. Now people know about the Neo Clouds and the hyperscalers, but there aren't that many people that know, like, who the key players in natural gas are. And, you know, if all the predictions about AI are true, you heard it from Dylan.
Speaker 2:He said, like, a lot of the energy is gonna come from natural gas. And so who who who who are you betting on?
Speaker 5:I mean, no no specific companies, but Leopold has talked about this a lot Yeah. Where basically, if if you continue ramping up data centers, like, you need the power from somewhere. Yep. And the the most obvious place is natural gas. Yep.
Speaker 5:If you can basically get past, like, regulation and, like, essentially you know, all the big companies have these environmental restrictions on, like, where they can get power from.
Speaker 2:Yep. So you have
Speaker 5:go If you can tear those down, then natural gas is, like, by far the cheapest, easiest way to just get, like, insane amounts of power. Yep.
Speaker 3:Well, it's Raghav says Leopold has a crazy position in natural gas company EQT.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we should dig into that.
Speaker 3:Only up 46% over the last year.
Speaker 2:Congratulations. Leopold wins again.
Speaker 3:Founded in guess.
Speaker 2:Founded in 1983.
Speaker 3:Close. 1888.
Speaker 2:1888. Let's go.
Speaker 3:Let's go.
Speaker 2:Just waiting a hundred and fifty years for the ultimate Like, now we're a meme stock. Finally.
Speaker 3:Real patience.
Speaker 2:Ajax the great says, working at SpaceX has taught me that caffeine limits are imaginary. Yeah. When I was there, I had a minimum two hundred milligrams per night. That's hilarious that he's denominating it in nights. Like, most people would say I have two hundred milligrams of caffeine per day.
Speaker 3:When I wake up,
Speaker 2:you know, have Per night. It's like, yeah, because I stay up
Speaker 3:all I
Speaker 2:start my morning with two hundred. And usually by noon, I'm at five hundred to six hundred milligrams. Today, hit over one thousand milligrams. That's a lot of caffeine. I don't know if you should be going up that high.
Speaker 2:It's certainly not
Speaker 3:You got work up to it. You got to work up to it. Riley Walls had He's on another Sounds like he had a great weekend. He said the plan, at dusk, 50 people went to San Francisco's longest dead end street and all ordered a Waymo at the same time. The world's first Waymo DDoS.
Speaker 3:You can see pictures of the Waymo
Speaker 2:They're just so
Speaker 3:obediently lining up.
Speaker 2:It was super crazy.
Speaker 3:So he said, we didn't actually get in the cars. They left after about ten minutes and charged a $5 no show fee. Very fair for for getting messed with. Waymo might have to build in some functionality of like, if you collude with a group to
Speaker 2:I would be terrified be to deplatformed from Waymo forever.
Speaker 5:Yeah.
Speaker 2:It would
Speaker 3:be very rough. Riley said, Waymo handled this well. I assume this isn't much different than if a big concert had just ended eventually. They disabled all rides within a two block vicinity until the morning. This was back in July.
Speaker 3:I felt like I was back in middle school. Everyone was giddy. And when another car showed up, there were cheers. Maybe three or four real drivers all laughed and just drove around.
Speaker 2:So good. I like Jake here saying calling him the the tech jester cannot be stopped. Really is. Would you call him an Internet rascal?
Speaker 3:An Internet rascal. Yeah. Somehow some I I called him an Internet rascal, and then somehow the team thought that was his, like, official title. It's like, I, Riley Walls, am an Internet rascal.
Speaker 2:I like it. Well, let me tell you about Turbo Puffer. Search every byte, serverless vector in full text search, built from first
Speaker 3:We puffin.
Speaker 2:On object storage. Fast, 10 x cheaper, and extremely scalable. Jeffrey Hinton was featured in the acquired podcast. They did a deep dive on Google. You can go check it out.
Speaker 2:Jeffrey Hinton, father of deep learning at age 31 with Chris Reisbeck, La Jolla, California. His post got them. So good. The the Acquired guys are so good at finding these archival images that just go so hard on the timeline. They look amazing.
Speaker 2:And David Fowl says, probably my favorite factoid about Hinton's family is that basically all of them were mathematicians going back all the way to George Boole for first time Metis list first ballot Metis list, eventually kicked off the Metis list for being irrelevant in the modern era, except for one guy in their family who invented the jungle gym. Isn't that hilarious? The Jeffrey
Speaker 3:Imagine inventing the jungle gym.
Speaker 2:That's such a great invention. I hope you have like a royalty that just produces endless cash flow for the family forever. Like, there's nothing more enjoyable than meeting a Neppo baby who's like, yeah, my great grandfather invented the pencil. Yeah. And you're like, yes.
Speaker 2:Okay. You deserve to be on a yacht right now. Yeah. You contributed to society.
Speaker 3:Imagine just looking at this like monstrosity of just like metal and like traps and and you're you're sitting there. What should we call it?
Speaker 2:The jungle gym. The jungle gym. Jungle gyms bring incredible joy to children all over the world. It's one of the greatest, least controversial inventions ever. There's no jungle gym doomers.
Speaker 3:That's
Speaker 2:true. There's no jungle gym accelerationists. There's no, oh, jingle gym costs causes brain rot narrative. There's no hit pieces on jungle gyms. They're on a they're unfiltered.
Speaker 2:They're raw. Sure they
Speaker 3:I actually I I would say I bet you we could find
Speaker 2:a Jungle gyms. Gyms because I'm
Speaker 3:sure they just massively increase injuries annually at schools. But worth it. Worth it.
Speaker 2:Know what doesn't increase injuries at schools? Profound. Get your brand mentioned in ChatGPT. Reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and get a demo. Shiel, friend of the show, says he's at Sea Ranch Lodge for lunch.
Speaker 2:It's very beautiful. And it's owned by Patrick and John Collison and Justin Khan. Very fun. Look at that corgi. This is a cool
Speaker 3:I had no idea you snapped this up. I knew that Justin Khan spent a lot of time Yeah. Up in that neck of the woods. I have been to Sea Ranch. It's up, up around where I grew up.
Speaker 2:So they have principles for the Sea Ranch Lodge. Yes. Nature predominates rural matrix. No. Vest pocket nature as at Carmel or Bodega.
Speaker 2:I don't know what that means. Yes to rural. No to suburbia. Yes to community. No to individual houses.
Speaker 2:Yes to aesthetics. No to up for grab aesthetics. Yes to design control.
Speaker 3:You're getting a text of saying there's just not just a jungle gym hit piece. There's a whole book covering it. You wrote a book on
Speaker 2:The entire jungle gym? Trying
Speaker 3:to take down big jungle gym.
Speaker 2:Wow. I will I will I will, I will go to the mat for the jungle
Speaker 3:gym. We will defend jungle gyms Yes. With our
Speaker 2:Not only because they are in the Hinton line, but also because they're they're good for the world. They say it's non not elitist. They want modesty of house size, reforestation, native trees, common facilities. Very cool.
Speaker 3:Wait. They want elitism in large house sizes?
Speaker 2:No. No. No.
Speaker 3:I'm I'm kidding. Kidding.
Speaker 2:Elitism in enormous houses. Yeah. Wait. Wait. I want the one on the right.
Speaker 2:I want the one on the right. Oh, they're taking shots at Malibu. They said they do not want to relinquish access. Malibu type. Oh, call us in con teaming up to
Speaker 3:Well, this these principles look like they predate them taking ownership. Yeah. Unless they just like made it to try to look like a vintage piece of paper.
Speaker 2:Before before growth equity secondary
Speaker 3:No. Because there's so much there's so much lore around there's so much lore around Sea Ranch.
Speaker 2:I don't know any of
Speaker 1:the lore.
Speaker 2:Never heard of Sea Ranch before.
Speaker 3:There's go you can go down a YouTube rabbit hole around Sea Ranch.
Speaker 2:Yes. How how conspiratorial does it get?
Speaker 3:Not conspiratorial at all. It's just like a very principled development and community and and they and they've done
Speaker 2:Born now. A yeah. Born now. We can we can bring conspiracy to it.
Speaker 3:Imagine you're just in this like idyllic, you know, cabin and you go to open the mini fridge and it's like, tap here for one click check.
Speaker 2:I'd like that. I'd love to have
Speaker 1:a check.
Speaker 3:In other news, Upper twenty Street Capital, they're running out of phrase capital Okay. X apparently. Somebody is writing mistakes. I wrote about investing in Tiny, an eclectic Canadian investment holding company just last year.
Speaker 2:Is the company founded by Jeremy Gaffan. Right?
Speaker 3:No. Some people seem to think that in
Speaker 2:the comments. We should we should we should whatever happens with Tiny, we should hold Jeremy to account. Right?
Speaker 3:Absolutely not. Early early team member. I believe potentially one of the first hires, but not his firm. Somebody in the comments I did notice thought that Jeremy started Tiny, and that's probably because he's had one of the most iconic podcast appearances in
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 3:History. But this person is writing, I wrote about investing in Tiny, an an eclectic Canadian investment holding company just last year, concluding that I hope to add to our shares over time and enjoy the benefits of getting in on the ground floor of a tech oriented compounder for years to come. Well, that was a mistake. Tiny has performed wretchedly, not just its share price, which if it had gone down independent of how their businesses performed would have bothered would not have bothered me and indeed would have afforded opportunities to buy more. But no, their fundamental financial performance floundered from the outset and has and have shown no signs of improvement.
Speaker 3:Net income and cash flows have dried up completely and what little is left is going towards interest payments on a 100,000,000 in debt, some of which they violated covenants of, resulting in their lender asking for accelerated principal repayments. In increasingly dire straits, they sold 4% of the company to a private equity shop for $20,000,000 Canadian, which at today's share price makes it look like Tiny is the one getting the last laugh. The final nail in the coffin was the behavior of one of its co founders, the majority shareholder. The man has simply acted like nothing's wrong at all. He remains active on Twitter and appears to spend inordinate amount of time on podcasts, both as guests and hosts, in the guise of an entrepreneurial guru, often introduced as, quote, billionaire, even though a cursory glance at the market cap of tiny make that a farciful impossibility.
Speaker 3:He's essentially taking victory laps while his company faces a debt maelstrom and his shareholders circle the drain, then he sets up a plan to unload millions more shares. So really rough. I mean, the nominative determinism on Tiny was always so brutal. You wanna start a tiny holding company.
Speaker 2:Well, it's a it we didn't they start with like a design shop? Right? Yep. Do you know that there's another design company called Huge?
Speaker 3:How are they doing?
Speaker 2:I think they're doing great.
Speaker 3:They're up they're up bigly.
Speaker 2:They're in Brooklyn. They've been going since 1999.
Speaker 3:Huge. Anyways
Speaker 2:They have a thousand employees. They're doing great. They got a global CEO. They have UX school. They're very good at user experience.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Always thought it was brutal. I've enjoyed Andrew Wilkinson's posts over the years. But I always thought it was brutal that he released a book called Barista to Billionaire. But by the time he was publishing the book, it was clear that he was no longer a billionaire.
Speaker 3:Barista, billionaire, back then.
Speaker 2:Why not? Isn't that the Round
Speaker 3:Lord of
Speaker 2:the Rings?
Speaker 3:Round trip.
Speaker 2:The Lord of the Rings
Speaker 3:book. No. Tiny does have the AeroPress.
Speaker 2:Oh, that's a good company.
Speaker 3:Oh, can still always make coffee.
Speaker 2:Well, let me tell you about Linear. Linear is a purpose built tool for planning and building products, meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects, and product road maps. And we have our second guest of the show, Alexis Ohanian. Welcome to the stream.
Speaker 3:There he is.
Speaker 2:How you doing? What's up, gentlemen? What's up? It's been too long.
Speaker 3:Oh, thank you.
Speaker 4:Congrats, guys. I I man, I just can't believe in, a year. Yeah. You've dominated all things LinkedIn media empire. I I hope it look.
Speaker 2:The LinkedIn is the cornerstone of our empire. It's it's we think first.
Speaker 3:But you you saw that you saw the vision We
Speaker 2:saw the vision.
Speaker 3:You saw the vision before we had done any guests, before we had gone live, Like, very, very
Speaker 4:You're still dying to invest, guys. You just happen to make the most profitable podcast ever
Speaker 2:in this investor capital.
Speaker 3:We manifested it. If you if you
Speaker 2:if you to invest, why don't you go turbo long Microsoft? They own LinkedIn. We're gonna make LinkedIn amazing. It's gonna flip every other social network. You'll make a bag.
Speaker 3:Not financial advice.
Speaker 4:Like the early stage, guys. I don't publicly traded stocks. I it doesn't doesn't stir my cocoa.
Speaker 2:Well, you need to use a thousand x leverage then in the public market.
Speaker 3:That's that's You need to be able to make it. You need to be able to make a thousand x or lose it all. Otherwise Exactly. Otherwise, it just don't get the rush.
Speaker 2:You're fine. What, what, what about, you could invest in a Microsoft treasury company? You could buy a seed stage startup that just holds micro holds a thousand x levered Microsoft stock, and then you get the exposure. You get to hang out with the founder. You're on the board, but and you see the same financial upside.
Speaker 2:It can all work out. Maybe.
Speaker 3:Anyways, it's it's great it's great to see you. What, what's new what's new in your world?
Speaker 4:Dude, I well, you know, it's very kind. I think for my second appearance on the show, you let me plug my women's track and field meet now team based league that's coming. Athlos, we just had our event in New York.
Speaker 3:Nice. Nice.
Speaker 4:Dope dope time. Over three and a half million people tuned in this year.
Speaker 2:Oh, that's big.
Speaker 4:Spectacle. It's a lot of fun. Thank you to the Internet. Yeah. We went wide on the distribution, so you could find it anywhere.
Speaker 4:YouTube, x, ESPN, and the zone. Didn't matter. But it was cool. And then, I don't know. I I was really coming on in part because I wanted to congratulate y'all.
Speaker 2:Oh, thank awesome to
Speaker 4:see the ride. I've had the privilege of separately funding or or seeding or, you know, playing early investment with the all separate companies.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I know.
Speaker 4:Yep. It's just been so awesome to see the trajectory, the execution, the vision, and, you know, congrats. Well deserved. I know it's just the start. And, and this is just me buttering you up so that one day I can invest in the Texas
Speaker 3:Some days.
Speaker 2:On the early side.
Speaker 3:By the way, yesterday, I was trying to hang out with a buddy. He could not. He was at the Angel City game.
Speaker 2:Oh, really?
Speaker 4:No way. Fantastic.
Speaker 3:What's the what what's what's the update on that front?
Speaker 4:I mean, we're we're knocking on the door. We might be able to get in the playoffs here. That's good. It's gonna be it's
Speaker 2:a little tough little tough
Speaker 4:right now, but I'm hoping I'm hoping we get in there. But that that was probably one of my favorite, like I don't was, like, March '19 when I rage tweeted about how undervalued women's professional sports was. And Yeah. In in proper Twitter fashion, most people said I was an idiot. No one cared about women's sports, but that that obviously has done pretty well.
Speaker 4:And, and, yeah, thank him for being an Angel City supporter. I've got a couple extra spots in the suite. If you've got
Speaker 2:Oh, there's a
Speaker 4:couple of listeners who want
Speaker 2:We'll make it happen. Tickets. We'll we'll meet
Speaker 4:up there. Out a way to give it away here for the last home match in season, but I'm gladly.
Speaker 2:We'll just, we'll just run a raffle on LinkedIn. That'll be the way to
Speaker 1:Perfect.
Speaker 4:That's where every right.
Speaker 2:That's where everyone is.
Speaker 3:That's the new that's the new alpha.
Speaker 2:100% of
Speaker 3:They also, we, Stokes Base. Your Yeah. They they announced, like, a half a billion in new funding last week.
Speaker 4:Yo. There was a believe it or not, so five years ago, first space tech investment I've ever done, and and
Speaker 3:You're just one shot at space.
Speaker 1:I well,
Speaker 4:I mean, come on. It it's it was a it was one of those dangerous it's one of those dangerous first investments in the sector because then, you know, you end up thinking you're you're a genius at it. But but Andy Laps and the team are doing a hell of a job. And and look, obviously, Elon Musk has has changed the world with SpaceX, but I think we would all agree a little competition is a is a good thing. And, and Andy's got a vision to do these fully 100% reasonable rockets, and the first launch is gonna be in Cape Canaveral this summer, and and very, very proud of that team.
Speaker 4:I'm just grateful to be a little part of that.
Speaker 3:You'll have to be there. You're gonna go in person?
Speaker 4:Oh, yeah. Dude, I'm bringing the whole seven seven sixteen. We visited. There's photos oh, if I had
Speaker 3:planned There's nothing like watching one of your startups do a launch and just actually, you know but but in the case of space, you have to you get a really tight feedback loop. At least if somebody launches like a SaaS company, it's like, oh, how how how do sign ups look after the first twenty four hours? This is like Yeah. It's pretty How does does this rocket in one piece after twenty seconds?
Speaker 2:Explode immediately. Like, you know you know whether or not it worked. Yeah. On on on the early stage side, I'd love to check-in with you on just, how you're feeling about AI because we had this foundation model war. It seems like that's cooling off.
Speaker 2:Like, Mark Zuckerberg's poaching different cofounders of different teams, but it still seems like there's a bunch of fertile ground in the early stage, not even call it an AI company, but just in a company that's, like, pulling AI off the shelf. And I'd love to know kind of how you're thinking about the mobile era, like, where the pockets of interesting value come from, what you're what excites you when you see a pitch? Because I imagine you're not getting may maybe you are, but I imagine you're not getting excited about, like, yeah. We're going up against OpenAI. You know, we're we're gonna do everything that they're doing but better.
Speaker 2:And it's like, that ship has sailed. So so where are the ships that are leaving the port right now?
Speaker 4:It feels like, okay, I'd say the companies there was this existential crisis probably two years ago
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 4:Where some of these twenty one and twenty two vintage companies that we had seeded were like, oh, shit. Like, the world has changed. Yeah. And and a lot of the I think the the the smartest ones, frankly, pivoted hard to decide, like, how do we sell picks and shovels? How do we find ways to just get involved in this?
Speaker 4:Mhmm. And and we've seen a couple. They won't even let me talk about them because their revenue is going so well. They're like, don't tell people
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 4:About it. But there's a there there there's a type of company that is selling to all those foundation models that is it's basically like, throw money at this problem. We don't need to be expert at it. We just need x. Maybe we need training data.
Speaker 4:Maybe we need whatever. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Here we call it here we call it the barnacle economy because the whales are are are getting so big that even if you're a barnacle, you
Speaker 3:can 0 to
Speaker 2:a $100,000,000 in a couple of years. And it's, like, a good way to kind of, like, get started. You're hitching a ride on a rocket ship. You're riding a wave, and then you go off and kind of, you know, source other customers over time and establish your market position.
Speaker 4:I I love I love Barnacle Economy. That is a good that is a good meme. The the other one that's starting to peak now that you all would have great instincts on as well is the it's that whatever the application layer. It's like,
Speaker 3:how do
Speaker 2:you build the
Speaker 4:stuff that's actually dope for the end consumer that, you know, assume some of these larger miles are gonna continue to just be a solution for a lot of stuff. Like, let's say you wanna see how you look in a Canadian tuxedo.
Speaker 2:There you go.
Speaker 4:Like, this is dodgy.
Speaker 3:Shameless plug. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 4:Yeah. If you can make a delightful user experience and for a consumer social guy, this is where I feel like now a lot of my product instincts can start to shine because now I I think we're almost about to see consumer social get fun again and get good again. People are realizing y'all are this is gonna seem like I'm just kissing ass, but you all prove let me continue. You all prove the point that so much of the Internet is now just dead, this whole dead Internet theory. Right?
Speaker 4:It's not not my idea. Whether it's botted, whether it's quasi AI Yeah. You know, LinkedIn slop. Like, proof of life, like live viewers and live content is really fucking valuable to hold attention.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:And and so I think we'll see a next generation of social media emerge that's verifiably human because, like, because it's all going down in the group chats now, that can't be that that is not novel tech. There's gotta be some next iteration of that because that's where all of us are getting our, like, really best info now. Yeah. And and similarly, I think we're gonna get really delightful, fun consumer experiences where, you know, some scrappy founders in Brooklyn like the DojiGuys can say, hey. Let's make shopping fun again using this tech.
Speaker 4:And and even if, you know, the Googles of the world launch some janky try on experience, like, we know those companies are just terrible at innovating product and and aren't really a threat.
Speaker 3:Yeah. The thing I've been thinking about is is is social is what we think of as a social media platform even harder to build now when you think of you're going up against generative media platforms that, you know, like Sora and like Vibes that are basically saying we'll spend hundreds of millions of dollars on compute to try to bootstrap this network. It's like the last generation of even even the TikToks of the world was like, okay. You can compete against American social media companies. Yeah.
Speaker 3:You just need to burn billions of dollars.
Speaker 2:I mean, what was the what was the vibe Way different seed round.
Speaker 3:Than you with Reddit back in day where you're like, okay. We need a little bit of cash. Yeah. And we need to, you know, clone ourselves a bunch on the platform.
Speaker 2:Maybe an a m a s credits or something would get you going like it's just But
Speaker 3:if yeah. If you guys had needed like a $100,000,000 to burn on compute, it wouldn't necessarily have been able to pull that off.
Speaker 4:$72,000. That's all
Speaker 2:we raised.
Speaker 4:A size gong for 12 k. Do you have a tiny gong?
Speaker 3:Yeah. We need a baby gong.
Speaker 2:No. No. Not your y c. Massive gong for scrappiness.
Speaker 4:And then $60 from an angel check from Paul Graham.
Speaker 1:I actually Wait. You got
Speaker 3:12 k from YC. That was the first check.
Speaker 4:For 7% of the company.
Speaker 2:It was worth it. But
Speaker 4:that is a different time. It's 02/2005.
Speaker 2:If you show up to YC
Speaker 3:This day in history, Intel IPO ed and raised 6 and a half million dollars.
Speaker 1:6 and
Speaker 4:a million. Mean, even inflation adjusted.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It's small.
Speaker 4:It's But anybody that's and that's oh, god. Okay. That's the other part that makes me a little nervous right now is the well, I guess, look. The everyone's seeing the rounds. Everyone's seeing the markups and the valuations and stuff for still fairly early stage companies.
Speaker 4:The founders that can maintain their discipline with a ton of cash sitting in their bank account are going to dominate in such a great way because we know you aren't gonna need to blitzscale like a decade before. You have no excuse for trying to get hundreds of employees. When in reality, you're a pure software company, you wanna build the Navy Seals. Right? You're having dozens who are gonna be able to get you on the revenue.
Speaker 4:And so if you can spend that money intelligently, obviously, you've gotta drop a lot of it into compute. But I I think it'll be it'll be interesting to watch because the blitzscaling model didn't really make many people happy. There are many CEOs who are like, god. I really loved when my company had a thousand employees. As long as these guys and gals can be good stewards of the capital, I think we can keep this party going.
Speaker 4:It's just, yeah, a lot a lot of lot of companies raising a lot right now early.
Speaker 3:What was your, takeaway from the whole TikTok deal? I know you were you were in the mix, and it ultimately efforts. It it ultimately ended up going for well beyond what it feels like the intrinsic value of the asset is, especially in comparison. It's like, would you rather own Perplexity at 20,000,000,000 or TikTok at 15?
Speaker 2:Right? We're Snap at seven.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Exactly.
Speaker 2:Like, it feels like a big platform. I
Speaker 4:I am still, DMs are still open if they wanna get me in the mix. I do think look. I I had a hunch. This this to me always felt like the kind of deal where you knew you were gonna get it. Like, if you knew you were gonna win it, you were gonna know a minute ago.
Speaker 4:Sure.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 4:And and and that is what it is. I'm still happy. I've been publicly talking about how problematic TikTok was for
Speaker 1:Sure.
Speaker 4:Years and years and years as a vehicle of the CCP. So I'm I'm happy it's an American possession now. I do think look. There's still there's still a lot of value to that zeitgeist to to affecting that. And I don't know.
Speaker 4:It'll be interesting to watch. I mean, I did just say I think social media is about to get upended in some interesting ways, but I think with the right leadership look. It's still look. It's still meaningful as all hell. And with the right leadership, it can Yeah.
Speaker 4:Continue to endure in this new era.
Speaker 2:This is a fascinating question because TikTok feels like for the last maybe decade almost, like, they it has been the engine of innovation for social media in the sense that the first, like, hack of, like, let's actually use licensed music or a lot of the cap cut stuff and a lot of the, oh, remove the background automatic editing tools. A lot of the collab features, live streaming. Like, they were definitely pushing the product design very fast. I wonder if the last two years have just been, like, total chaos internally and, like, basically frozen product development because it's, like, not an exciting place to work. Everything's gonna be under crazy scrutiny.
Speaker 2:So even if there's some innovation, like, oh, like, instead of just like and retweet, there's, like, a third button that's gonna work really well. Like, that hasn't rolled out. And where I'm where I'm thinking this goes is that, you know, we heard OpenAI was gonna do a social network. They did Sora. That was, like, somewhat telegraphed.
Speaker 2:It makes a lot of sense that Meta would launch Vibes, something in the AI social network, AI TikTok. But TikTok should launch AI TikTok. Right? And they've been they've been they've been fantastic at machine learning and AI. They've had huge data centers running these incredible recommendation algorithms.
Speaker 2:That's why the TikTok algorithm feels so creepily accurate. You swipe five times on a car, and it's like all car content for the next week. And they're really good at understanding, like, you like this car instead of this car. And that's because of AI and and and their machine learning chops, but they haven't brought that to bear in generative AI yet. And it seems logical, but I'm wondering if there's still a team there that would push that forward or if they'll just be way more reactive.
Speaker 4:I you bring up a really good point, especially because we've seen this creep up, and it felt like look. Part of the advantage to to building in the space is you're right. I mean, when we talk about the algorithm, we're talking about TikToks. Right? The effectiveness, like you said, that they were able to use machine learning to send you more of the stuff you wanna keep swiping.
Speaker 4:It does feel like they've been frozen in time the last couple Yeah. I think you could get look. It's a com it is a large enough property with enough cultural influence that I think you get some really talented people to come go build on it. And, look, Andreessen and company, they know how to attract talented people to come build on stuff. I wouldn't count it out yet.
Speaker 4:The part and this is look. A big reason why I'm still spending so much why why I continue spending more and more time in sports, investing in sports, building sports, teams, league, etcetera. I think it's the last bastion of content and attention when, you know, '95 think of the future of Hollywood, the entertainment industry, the music industry. It's gonna be largely AI generated or assisted. The the appointment television aside from live, you know, breaking tech and business news, sport is, like, guaranteed.
Speaker 4:And the the celebrity of being an athlete also indoors even in the age of AI because why you're famous is not because people know about you, it's because of the stuff that you do.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:And and so I like, there's gotta be I think I think whatever that next platform is is either gonna feel deeply intimate and human. So it's it's the better version of the group chat that we all have, and I don't know if maybe it's another level anonymity, decentralization. I know the crypto bros are excited about that. Yep. There's there's potential there.
Speaker 4:Or it's it it leans more into live. Especially here in the West, I feel like whatnot and others are still kinda scratching the surface, whereas in China, it seems like a much bigger part of the culture. So I I don't know. Yeah. But I'm I'm hopeful I'm hopeful we keep seeing more innovation here because as a as a consumer guy, I I think we've been starved for a
Speaker 2:long time. Totally. Jordy?
Speaker 3:There were some recent reporting that time on social media in the financial times. Time on social media peaked in 2022 with young people cutting back first. Is that something did you did you ever predict that? I mean, they're they're kind of you have to factor in, I feel, like COVID a little bit here.
Speaker 2:People going back to work, spending more time. It's like remote work. Basically.
Speaker 3:Like It's really just people remote work ending and people like, okay.
Speaker 2:Yeah. You literally go to the office and, like, TikTok is banned on the Wi Fi, so you can't use it.
Speaker 4:I like okay. I like that we're beating this up. I definitely quote tweeted it because it validated my own worldview, and so
Speaker 2:I was like, well, obviously, this is right. Like, literally take a victory lap.
Speaker 4:I think I mean, look. Okay. Anecdotally, I should actually just look at this. I'm I track all this shit, so I could probably just look at even just on my mobile phone time spent. I don't know how far back that goes in that app.
Speaker 4:But okay. Anecdotally, look at look at online dating and look at how I mean, thankfully, I'm married because I don't run, but, like, run clubs have become this new version of how to meet people, especially for younger generation. I got tired of swipe culture. It it definitely feels like there is a younger generation of folks who are using the Internet to find ways to commune offline, whether it is events or run clubs. It feels like there's a there's a bit of a culture shift that's like Wait.
Speaker 2:Did you say you're married so you don't run?
Speaker 4:No. I'm saying I'm married.
Speaker 3:So he doesn't get it.
Speaker 4:It's also helpful, but I also don't run.
Speaker 2:I like the idea that the only reason people run is to meet people. Like, that is the that like, running is just
Speaker 3:damn expansion.
Speaker 2:It really has been. No. No. It's a good point.
Speaker 4:No. But, guys, guys, we can break I could break down why this is. So I I'm very lucky. I know I know Whitney fairly well from Mumble, but also the OkCupid guys from back in the day. I'm really dating myself.
Speaker 4:The the secret of online dating, assuming straight dating only for a second, is high value women get inundated by messages from guys. And so if they have a bad experience, they churn and your app fails.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 4:And so every successful dating website is on some level away to make sure that they're having a good time.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:And what's interesting about Run Clubs is it it creates this social dynamic and a sort of physical real world one where if you literally cannot keep up,
Speaker 2:you cannot keep up.
Speaker 4:And and so I like, there is an interesting dynamic there that I think again, I've taken a few of these pitches. The the Run Club app, the the the dating app for real life. Like, there's there's versions of this that are foaming up. And so I wanna believe I wanna believe the burnout is real, and then you combine it with just, again, the fact that so much of the stuff we're seeing is just it's to some degree bodied or fake. Yeah.
Speaker 4:I mean, I'm meeting I'm meeting founders. Let give you a perfect example. Okay? So and this is something I wouldn't be okay. So CPG days.
Speaker 4:You know how important having a subreddit is to the success of your product.
Speaker 2:Right? Huge.
Speaker 4:I got about nine months ago, I heard from a founder. I won't say what the subreddit is, but he told me he's like, oh, I just bought the, bread making r slash bread making. I just bought the bread making subreddit. Was like, I didn't know you could buy a subreddit. He said
Speaker 2:it against t o s. I imagine that's against non t o s.
Speaker 4:We definitely. But but we found the seven moderator accounts, and we bought each of those accounts. Interesting. Now we own those accounts. We can't we we control who becomes a new mod, so we own that subreddit.
Speaker 2:We own
Speaker 4:And so very quietly every day on ours it's not our slash bread making. But our slash bread making
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 4:We make sure that there are posts that do well that are like, oh, I love my, you know, blobby
Speaker 2:bread. Bread.
Speaker 4:Yes. Because the value of the GPT sort of training the engine Sure. Sure. What is it? GEO now?
Speaker 2:Whatever. Yeah.
Speaker 4:GEO. GPT optimization. The SEO of of today, of the AIAH, it's so valuable that there's such an economic incentive now. And, you know, if that's what the cracked founders Yeah. Are doing, and I just learned about that six months ago, eight months ago, surely it was happening even before.
Speaker 2:Should we And Yeah.
Speaker 4:It it it it Wild. It it it makes the underpinning of so much of what we consume online, you know, very much at risk. Again, which is why stuff like this starts to feel a lot more real and tangible.
Speaker 2:Should we buy out all the mods of r slash communism and start killing them on capitalism?
Speaker 3:We'd have to I mean, it's it's it's interesting already.
Speaker 2:For probably I I imagine Post luxury watches
Speaker 3:I imagine they would be very principal. If you try if you offered $10,000, they'd be very principal. They'd be like
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 3:There's no price that I would, you know, sell my you offer them a million dollars. Actually, 20 ks might do it. What do you think about I feel like there's been an idea. Haven't I've I've seen some pitches over the last couple years of people selling this vision of like Instagram but it's just you and a million bots. Or And and so that feels like the social network that I know.
Speaker 3:Well, it feels like a social network that you don't need a, you know, a billion dollars like to start. Like something like a store. It's like very expensive. Not not any old team can just build that.
Speaker 2:You're absolutely right, Jordy.
Speaker 3:Thanks. Great idea. Thanks, John. It's not this. It's that.
Speaker 3:But but but but and and I think the reason that I think is somewhat interesting is people can say bots are a feature, not a bug. Right? Like, x clearly doesn't take bots as seriously as maybe they should. And I think part of that is probably it Yeah. Just brings back hard to solve, but it also brings it's like a notification.
Speaker 3:Right? It brings people back to the app. There's a reason to, check the app, even if you're not getting real engagement. But I've generally been bearish on these sort of just like entirely bot networks because I think people still wanna feel like even if they're getting a notification from like an account that could be a bot, they're still running the calculus of like, oh, maybe it is a real person. I don't know.
Speaker 4:Yeah. Yeah. It would have to be the utility of the bot. The why of the bot would have to be so great that no human could reasonably do it. So Reddit had a version, a third party version of this.
Speaker 4:It was like the remind me bot.
Speaker 2:Oh,
Speaker 4:yeah. Where you would just tag in remind me and some date some amount of time, it will message you back. So, like, there that that isn't it right. No no reasonable human would keep track of all that bullshit. Great use of a bot.
Speaker 4:Yep. There there there could be uses for that, but it would really like, in each one of them, it would have to be so worth it. It can't just be sick of fancy. Like, it has to be like, no. This actually adds some value that no human could reasonably do.
Speaker 4:I think for me to get excited about it. Because people can still find the sycophancy one to one.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 4:Do you really need a 100 or a thousand? And and, frankly, you know, probably 10% of humanity will fall Yeah. In some way in in love with or in obsession with some kind of an AI. In the same way we lost people to MMORPGs or what have you.
Speaker 2:Like Yeah.
Speaker 4:There there's a version of that to exist, but I I don't know about the one to many.
Speaker 2:At the same time, it feels like about 10% of the population maybe will do the exact opposite. And instead of getting lost in the hyper futuristic infinite jest, they will just go back to, like, logging off, complete retro stuff. Yeah. They're on the clock. I wanna know two things.
Speaker 2:The the general take on on retro electronics, throwback websites, throwback tech. And then I wanna know specifically, what game are you playing on your mod retro chromatic most often these days? Because you've been posting a lot about it.
Speaker 4:Dude, I don't know if we totally announced it. Well, okay. I I'm gonna have to disclose. We're also an RIA, so now anything I say so, I mean, it is a seven seven six company. We're very lucky to have invested with Torin and Palmer, and and it is I am an unabashed gamer.
Speaker 4:It's it's I have I mean, I have graded video games. Actually,
Speaker 2:Graded video games? Graded. Oh, like, like, like older copies that are kept in the box? Look at this, guys. That's cool.
Speaker 2:This is an
Speaker 4:original Game Boy. Yeah. Like, this is my art. Wow.
Speaker 2:Right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 4:My I I this is I I coveted this as a kid. We could
Speaker 2:not have Yeah. I've long had this thesis Not one now, dad. I I I've I've long had this thesis that I I don't know how it'll play out, but, like, in many ways, video games can be the new gulf for a generation of young people that grew up playing competitive video games. And then they will, like, play games with their crew, like, online and, like, it'll actually, like, kind of be this place where people have business discussions in the lobby of Fortnite in a few years, like, once they get No.
Speaker 4:It is. So three years ago, two years ago, it was an early oh, a long time ago, was an early investor in Roe, Roe Health. Yeah. Z Ray Tano, founder and CEO. After our board meetings, we play Fortnite.
Speaker 4:Yeah. So we'll this has been going on. I think he does it with some other CEO
Speaker 2:I heard some hilarious story about a kid who runs a company and does all his meetings in Cod. He's like, yo. No. Seriously. I mean, he's like some, like, I don't know, crypto founder or something.
Speaker 2:And and, like, he's a very small, like, lean company. He's just like, oh, yeah. Like, let's just hop on Rust if we wanna, like, hash this out. But first, I do wanna know, top mod retro game. I got Tetris, obviously.
Speaker 2:I got a few other games, but what should I get?
Speaker 4:Here you go. So simulated. It's a platformer. It's a lot of fun.
Speaker 3:Mhmm.
Speaker 4:It involves your robot dying and an infinite number of its clones having to make its way out. I may or may not be working on a game of my own.
Speaker 2:I was about to ask. Ready for the holidays. Because if the mod retro chromatic install base gets big enough, you could potentially develop new games, and it would probably be pretty cheap to develop because you're not trying to do GTA five with networking and stuff. Right? Like, you're actually just like you could maybe even vibe code it a little bit.
Speaker 2:Like, it's pretty doable.
Speaker 4:That is exactly right. I mean, this is an indie game. And what's crazy is the amount of money I'm spending on this game is tens of thousands of dollars, and that's everything. And that's for basically developer, designer, a little bit of soundtrack music stuff. Like, it it's
Speaker 2:it doesn't take g t I six money. Like, that's that's accessible for just, like, an artist with, like, a couple backers. You there's gonna be a new crowdfunding boom potentially. You could get new Kickstarter stuff going, actually delivering stuff. That's super cool.
Speaker 4:And and what I love about the constraint is similar to a great tweet. Right? You're limited on characters. You gotta make each one count. You're limited on pixels.
Speaker 4:You make each count, and it forces you to think more about gameplay and do weirder interesting stuff. Like, there's a sea shanty, like, guitar hero style game that I actually need to try on the chromatic, where it's like that would have never been Soon, man.
Speaker 2:Light. Come. I love that. I love sea shanties.
Speaker 4:Took the cost to be reasonable enough that you could get experimental and turn around a really high quality in the game. So I'm bullish on it, especially because, you know, every new Call of Duty, every new Battlefield, like, the graphics get marginally better, but it's diminishing returns. Right? Oh, the buildings are now 99% more destructible. That's cool.
Speaker 4:But it doesn't it's not a huge step function. Like, will I buy the new Grand Theft Auto when it ever comes out? Of course.
Speaker 2:Of course.
Speaker 4:But but there's there's room for this kind of simpler format that it's it's very dope. And, you know, Palmer's not stopping there. So if you've seen any of the tweets, there's some very cool hardware on the way.
Speaker 2:I'm very well. Yeah.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Think he's, I think he's on the schedule
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:For later this month. Last question, how what's your framework and and view on AI companions broadly, it feels like one of those things that everybody has, like, kind of a moral framework around investing into. Elon obviously ran the calculus of it feels like a market that a lot of the other labs didn't wanna lean into heavily. He was willing to
Speaker 4:Went there.
Speaker 3:To lean in. He went there. He went there.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:But what's your because I'm sure you've gotten pitched probably hundreds of pitches.
Speaker 2:You haven't tried Claude sexy mode?
Speaker 3:The whole creator yet. This
Speaker 4:is where oh lord. This is definitely where I feel like, there's prob look. The market's gonna find
Speaker 2:the
Speaker 4:market's not necessarily gonna regulate itself. This is clearly one of the end games for AI for some percentage of the population.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:I'm not, like, jumping out of bed to fund that company, and, you know, thankfully, Elon's doing it with those hentai characters. You know? But but I do think okay. The version of it that I think is very interesting to me, there's and I've been using I mean, maybe it just ends up being ChatGPT or Anthropic. Like, I use them as a as a kind of executive coach in real time when I'm looking for feedback on emails or just my own sort of notes on stuff.
Speaker 4:Like, there's there's some version of that that I think is interesting and compelling. I like I I've been actively looking for the version of it that is kid friendly, but not you know? And there there's been some interesting ones that have gotten funding. I don't know. I like, because the way I use AI with my kid right now is it's just the always on tutor that we can sort of ask questions to or will provide trivia questions
Speaker 3:for us on That's a good use case.
Speaker 4:And fun.
Speaker 2:And it's great.
Speaker 4:And we do a little creative storytelling, story writing, but it's always with me because I she's eight. Right? I I still I want her to think of this as a tool that's gonna give her superpowers to solve any problem she needs. I'm excited to see here's another one, you know, that I think the Palmers of the world will be thinking about is if you're focused on consumer electronics or consumer hardware, the the way this generation, this AI native generation is gonna interact with UI and UX is different from us, and it's the same it's the version of the kids swiping the magazine back in the day
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah.
Speaker 4:Because they thought the iPad was broken, but it's a paper magazine. Right? Because that form factor was so native to them. There's an AI first, almost a voice first version that I'm expecting. Like, because even I I I watch my daughter when she gets on her iPad for iPad time.
Speaker 4:Like, she usually uses the microphone to dictate text into the the prompts or what have you, instead of typing. Like, I'm trying to get around the whole QWERTY thing. But, again, if I'm realistic, I'm like, well, this is way faster.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 4:These things like, literally, these things were designed to be slow so that the keys wouldn't jam on a typewriter. Right? And all the Dvorak keyboard people are like, we told you. Finally, we're validated. But I actually think this this should feel like a relic from a bygone age if we build the right interface for it.
Speaker 4:So I think voice is gonna get more interesting, and I'm I'm looking towards the younger generation for just helping us get ideas out of our heads.
Speaker 3:Yeah. The the combination of kids' toys plus LLMs is interesting too. I'm sure they'll be jailbroken in terrible ways immediately. But if you can combine,
Speaker 4:Rock's been
Speaker 2:actual Yeah.
Speaker 1:But we never did
Speaker 2:that on the Internet in 2000 either. Yeah.
Speaker 3:Yeah. You can combine like like novel IP Yeah. That's a hit plus the LLM layer where the the kid just doesn't love like a certain plushy thing.
Speaker 2:I mean, super underrated that OpenAI has a deal with, you know, everyone talking about Broadcom, Nvidia, Oracle. They have a deal with Mattel. Like, OpenAI and Barbie are in business together. Like, let's think about that for second.
Speaker 3:And Ken.
Speaker 2:It's gonna be fun.
Speaker 3:Ken is AGI pill.
Speaker 2:Yeah. You're gonna be able to go to Ken and Barbie AGI. It'll be fun. Thank you so much for stopping by. This is a great time.
Speaker 3:Great to catch up.
Speaker 4:Appreciate you guys. Keep up the great work.
Speaker 2:Thank you.
Speaker 3:You too. Thanks, Remy.
Speaker 2:We'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 3:Talk soon.
Speaker 2:Speaking of Palmer, massive news out of Andoril today. Jen Buchi shares fit check and shows an insane design for an augmented reality, virtual reality
Speaker 3:Is this a real picture?
Speaker 2:Warfighter, I believe it is. Wow. Reggie James comments. He says, I, for one, love that national defense and intelligence are just Founders Fund incubation projects. Andrew Roll had the full story.
Speaker 2:They said superpowers for superheroes. Today, they are unveiling Eagle Eye, the family of warfighter augments that place mission command and AI directly into the operator's helmet. Very cool. The lineage of this program is wild. Microsoft is working on it for a while.
Speaker 2:Anderle got the contract. Yep. But still had
Speaker 3:do full page print ad in the journal for this?
Speaker 2:Would they or did they?
Speaker 3:They already did.
Speaker 2:They did. Fantastic. Pull it up. And Garcia Capital says, this isn't a Call of Duty screenshot. This is Andrew Earl's eagle eye.
Speaker 2:Palmer's been on record saying that he thinks that the warfighter, will be adopting virtual reality headsets or AR headsets before the consumer because weight, cost, and you can just mandate, hey. You gotta wear this thing to do your job.
Speaker 3:Well and you can say we're gonna spend $50,000 on each headset versus Meta being, you know, in a position where they need to make a headset for, like, $300 they can sell for 800 or they're probably losing money. Yep. Yep.
Speaker 2:Yep. So the willingness to pay to save a life on the battlefield is way higher than watch a movie or play a game. Yeah. What do think of the new headset, Tyler? They're so sick.
Speaker 2:They're so sick.
Speaker 5:How do we I mean,
Speaker 2:we get one?
Speaker 5:We gotta get one
Speaker 2:of these. How do we get a demo?
Speaker 5:I'm looking through like the they've post some other images of of what it looks like and Yeah. It's like act it just looks like Call of Duty. Like, there's a mini map and then
Speaker 2:That's awesome.
Speaker 5:When you have a gun, it shows like where it's like aiming at. That's crazy. It's sick.
Speaker 2:It's really like yeah. Call of Duty Infinite Warfare is now here. Very excited to see more demos of this as it rolls out. Congratulations to the entire Andoril team on the progress. The, yeah, the lineage there is is fascinating.
Speaker 2:And I always had this thesis that, like, that, like, Palmer and Anduril was, like, the perfect company to do this project, originally called IVAS. And IVAS was kind of languishing within Microsoft for a number of years, and it made sense that Palmer has the VR
Speaker 3:Are they getting, like, paid, like, a billion dollars a year? It was some massive contract that was getting
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. I think it was, like, 10 something billion dollar product or or a project or scope of work, but I don't know how much they'd actually drawn down on that because I don't know how much they'd actually delivered against the contract. There was still a lot of value to be paid if you could deliver, but Microsoft, I I think, wasn't quite delivering. And so, Andrew bought the contract or or or acquired the contract or merged the contract in and then now is running at it much harder.
Speaker 2:And, I mean, it seems like a really, really solid progress, which is exciting. So if you go over and you get a Chromatic, you're gonna have to pay sales tax. The Chromatic team, I'm telling you, get on numeralhq.com. Sales tax and autopilot spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance. More news on rare earths, Elad Gil, who came on the show
Speaker 3:Narrative violation. Oh, yeah. Abundant earths.
Speaker 2:Abundant earths is quoting, Ben Thompson. He says US is The US deficiency in rare earths isn't a matter of needing to catch up to technological excellence. It's needing to simply have the will, incentives, and regulatory regime to do what it what we already did before. TLDR, they are not rare. We just chose not to make them in The United States Of America.
Speaker 2:The NRC of old hurt multiple aspects of U. S. Resilience in both energy and manufacturing. Hopefully, the current NRC can change help change things for the better. Now, the steel man for not making rare earths in America is and I think we now realize that it was a mistake, but I but I do think it's important to understand the rationale behind not doing mining in America.
Speaker 2:Like, is dirty. It is gross. Like, if you have a mine upstream for you, there's probably gonna be some pollution. If you're worried about microplastics, you're also probably, worried about molybdenum in your
Speaker 3:Forever chemicals.
Speaker 2:In your tap water, forever chemicals, all these different things. It is a it is a a very rough job. You know, the famous, like, coal miner gets black lung. Like, there was a there was a reasonable rationale for for not, doing this all over The United States. But, the true answer was all was always more technology.
Speaker 2:It wasn't, hey. Mining is dirty. Let's not do dirty mining. It was like, let's figure out how to actually clean it. Like, there is a way to it may might be a little bit less economical, but there is a way to put a mine somewhere and have the chemicals contained and not destroy the environment.
Speaker 2:And that always should be the answer just like with nuclear power plants, design one that doesn't blow up. That's the answer. The answer is not no more nuclear power plants. It's design one that's safe. And so, hopefully, we can get there.
Speaker 2:And hopefully, we can, reassure it. There are a couple of companies that are working on it. MP Materials, I think, is one. There's a few others that are, you know, working on rare earth manufacturing and processing.
Speaker 3:Yeah. The challenge is trying to massively increase production, you know, production capacity while making the process much cleaner. Yes. You kind of need to choose one typically.
Speaker 2:Yes. There is a third option, though. The third option is to recycle the materials that we have. So there's a there's a public company, and then there's Redwood Materials, which was founded by J. B.
Speaker 2:Straubel, who was, I believe, cofounder or at least on the board of Tesla for a number of years. And, his whole pitch is there's there's already we already have a ton of rare earths. They're just locked in depreciated electric cars. Let's rip them up, reprocess them, and then recycle them because, the actual matter is conserved even after the battery is no longer useful. And so you can separate all those out and then and then reintroduce them into the supply chain.
Speaker 2:And so Redwood Materials has been on that on that track for a number of years and hopefully is is doing well because it's more more important than ever. Yeah. What what what else do you wanna go through in the timeline while you
Speaker 3:Pegasus says OpenAI starting to give off FTX vibes. What do you think caused this?
Speaker 2:October 13?
Speaker 3:This was this morning. TBP interference? No. Yeah. I Extremely bearish for us.
Speaker 3:I know. I mean, so FTX was getting unbelievably large while telling the world that they had like five engineers. And they were running a hedge fund that was actively, effectively trading against their user base.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 3:They they're I I don't know. It's it's I think
Speaker 2:I think it's a rough pattern match. It's rough I don't like pattern it. I mean, first
Speaker 3:off, It's like not to say you can't find ways to criticize OpenAI and criticize Sam's deal making and all that kind of thing. But it feels wildly different.
Speaker 2:Yeah. For sure. I mean, FTX narrative was so, so
Speaker 3:Sam is not trading. He's trading with the subscription revenue that you give him. But it's wildly different than you know, millions of people holding
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:Deposits with a financial institution that's Totally. Half onshore, half offshore and, you know, making wild degenerate bets Totally. With
Speaker 2:using Even even just the aesthetics, like the vibes of SPF where he was doing, like, those TikTok dances and his whole brand was like, I'm this, like, 20 year old billionaire. It's like, Sam
Speaker 3:I drive them onto Accord. I drive
Speaker 2:a Camry. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 3:Sam will
Speaker 2:straight up tell
Speaker 3:you. He he
Speaker 2:went on He likes a fancy car. And, yeah. So way less fake, I think.
Speaker 3:Sam Sam said he'd never buy a car for a quarter mil.
Speaker 2:Exactly. He got it. And and also, like, yeah, this whole, the whole SBF thing was just so much faster. FTX ramped so much faster than OpenAI. OpenAI, I mean, started, what, a decade ago.
Speaker 2:Like, they have they really have been working for a long time. Also, Sam, Sam Altman has a way longer track record in Silicon Valley, like investing in big companies, growing them. He's been, you know, more or less correct on, like, the energy question, on the SaaS question.
Speaker 3:One way to pattern match it is that they're both CEOs that happen to be make some pretty good investments.
Speaker 2:And their name's Sam.
Speaker 3:Their names.
Speaker 2:Is that a coincidence? Coincidence. Draw the red string.
Speaker 3:Red string.
Speaker 2:Red string time. I mean, they are actually more linked because isn't the, like, open philanthropy effective altruism stuff linked? Right? Tyler, back me up on this. What's the
Speaker 5:link? I know a lot of, like, EA funding was was mostly from s like, FTX. Like, it Yes. Totally destroyed, like, the ecosystem. Yeah.
Speaker 5:And I think that's maybe when they actually changed. I I don't know if it's the same organization, Open Philanthropy or EA, but there was something where, basically, FTX crashes. Yep. Everything is kind of wiped out Yeah. Including, like, a lot of EA
Speaker 3:funds.
Speaker 2:But in fact, I think a lot there there there would be a lot more string between FTX and Anthropic, right, than FTX and OpenAI because a lot of the EAs, like, left OpenAI to go over to Anthropic. But, also, like, that's a very real business with, like and it's like yeah. It's just like, what what what would be the like like, the nature of, like, selling tokens for subscription revenue is just not the same as being a hedge fund that can, like, blow up on one bad trade if, like, you're over levered. It's just like you you can get over levered if you have a lot of debt and stuff, but the debt's not balance sheet. Don't know.
Speaker 2:It's a stretch. But it's certainly a viral post because there's a lot of people with strong opinions. Everyone has like a favorite foundation models company CEO right now. You can't just be a fan of all of them like we are. You can't just be like, I like capitalism.
Speaker 2:I like the lab. I like all of them. It's a good
Speaker 3:What what are your what's
Speaker 2:It's your your good labs CEOs.
Speaker 3:AI labs. I like the labs.
Speaker 2:I like them. Yeah. We support we support the the foundation model CEOs across the board. Like, support fin dot a I, the number one AI agent for customer service, number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bake offs, number one ranking on g two. Watching my friend's kid and immediately put him on the drugs.
Speaker 2:What is this?
Speaker 3:It's miss Rachel.
Speaker 2:I don't know who that is.
Speaker 3:You've never you've never thrown
Speaker 2:on I've never seen miss Rachel. I think I saw her mentioned in the Wall Street Journal once, but that's really the only interaction I've ever had.
Speaker 3:YouTuber? YouTuber gets probably miss Rachel. Yeah. She's she's pulling I mean, so
Speaker 2:It's a story.
Speaker 3:Her top videos do like billions of views. Billions? She has a video from three years ago called baby learning with miss Rachel. 1,600,000,000 views.
Speaker 2:That's a lot of views.
Speaker 3:So she puts up insane numbers. But it's you can think of it somewhat like crack cocaine
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 3:For the youth. Mhmm. And that it's like hyper addictive. It it it's very engaging. I do believe that it it it's like probably effective at teaching Mhmm.
Speaker 3:But at the cost of 10 to Yeah. It's it's it's not it's basically it doesn't immediately scream brain rot, but then when you if you actually pay attention to it, it's cutting quickly. It's it's keeping them kids, you know, massively engaged. Yeah. And then if you turn it off, it's like full meltdown mode.
Speaker 5:Yeah. Jordy, would you say it's equivalent to like that that thing where it's it would be
Speaker 3:It's like a Dwarvesque interview for you. If you're if you're playing it and I come unplug your headphones, you start
Speaker 2:Start screaming. Screaming and you
Speaker 3:can't. You go non Sarah
Speaker 2:Payne was explaining.
Speaker 5:I was I was World War two. I was re listening to Leopold's interview yesterday.
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah.
Speaker 5:I was feeling a little bit low on the AGI filledness. I and I had to get, you know, refilled. Yeah. But so it would you say it's similar to like when you see like, Peter Griffin, like, explaining, like, math concepts? Have you ever seen these?
Speaker 5:No. Okay. Well, it's like it's like Family Guy characters, and they're like, oh, this is, you know, how you do gradient descent or something. They're they're explaining something
Speaker 2:like Is Peter Griffin like the Dwarf Keshe of the Family Guy universe or something? Explain who Peter Griffin is.
Speaker 5:Alright. Never mind.
Speaker 2:None of us none of us get each other's references at all. What is funny about this picture that, Growing Daniel shared is that he says watching my friend's kid and immediately put him on the drugs. There's Mitch Ray miss Rachel showing on a TV. But this is clearly a conference room. Like, there is have you ever seen this little, if you zoom in on the actual device on the on the table there?
Speaker 2:Do you know what this is? It's like a three sixty camera that you can use to, like, zoom around the room and and maybe we should get one right here. We can we can have you know, you can Zoom in on me or you, Tyler, or you or whatever you want. Anyway, very funny very funny random post. You mentioned it earlier, but on this day, Intel IPO'd at a stock price of $23.50.
Speaker 2:By close, it had raised $6,800,000. Historical size Gong?
Speaker 5:Hit it. Historical
Speaker 2:size Gong. Quirk and Absolutely
Speaker 3:Absolutely wild wild run. Run.
Speaker 2:Let me tell you about Adio. Customer relationship magic. Adio is the AI native CRM that builds scales and grows your company to the next level.
Speaker 3:Benny Feldman is going viral on x. He says, my buddy lost his job to AI. His job was to chug thousands of gallons of water at a data center.
Speaker 2:This is so funny.
Speaker 3:Remember, if you're thirsty, Grock is thirsty too.
Speaker 2:Yeah. This is, this is wildly viral. 147,000 likes.
Speaker 3:Apple apparently is rebranded its streaming service Apple TV plus to Apple TV. Finally. This is where all the alpha alpha is in streaming.
Speaker 2:Is why it's a brand makes sense. Rebrand
Speaker 3:$900,000. A year, add a plus, drop a plus, add a max. Drop a This
Speaker 2:is how the modern economy works.
Speaker 3:What is the current HBO name? Is it it's back to HBO Max.
Speaker 2:So now now you can go and buy an Apple TV, open the Apple TV app, and subscribe to
Speaker 3:Apple TV.
Speaker 2:Apple TV. So now there's three products that are all called Apple TV. It's pretty wild. Well, you know, there's some good stuff on there. F one.
Speaker 2:You wouldn't have watched f one without Apple TV. So
Speaker 3:I watched it on I watched it on Amazon Prime, though.
Speaker 2:You did? But it but it was produced by Apple TV plus the streaming service. Like Yes. Like the the because there's a production company. There's, like, seven layers.
Speaker 2:They they vertically integrated the supply chain. How do you save money on the ICON Pass? Let's go to the damn Dave Ramsey.
Speaker 3:So you buy the ICON Pass to save money skiing. Yes, Dave. Because you have the ICON Pass, you now travel to Colorado, Utah, Japan, and Europe to ski. So you end up spending more money on ski trips. That is correct, Dave.
Speaker 2:The pea god. Like this guy.
Speaker 3:Great post. Great post. Icon pass. Will Menidas. I got in a
Speaker 2:fight with somebody over the Icon pass. I was Oh. I I was maintaining that the that the slopes weren't in fact crowded this ski season with my one data point I went skiing once or twice or something like that. I was like, it wasn't that bad. And they were like, I went skiing 25 times.
Speaker 2:It was terrible this season. They need to raise prices. But I don't know. We spend most of our time locked in. The studio, the Ultradome, didn't get that many days of fresh pow
Speaker 3:That's true. Slopes. Wellmanitis was David Senra released the second ever episode of David Senra by David Senra, hosted by David Senra and executive produced by David Senra. Yes. Will Menidas shared of course, the episode is with Michael Dell.
Speaker 3:Yep. Will Menidas shared that Michael Dell was 23 when Dell Computer crossed $150,000,000 in sales. Not something you see very
Speaker 2:picture that has exactly 23 pixels apparently. Couldn't find a couldn't find a high res version. But it is a
Speaker 3:high res version from 10/19/1987, Will.
Speaker 2:I will always remember October 19 because we made a $25,000,000 deal that day to Dell, whose Dell Computer Corporation grossed a $159,000,000 in sales last year of thousands of deals that were squashed that day. Ours was one of the only ones that wasn't.
Speaker 3:Wow. Absolutely. We pull up this video of the Chinese unitary humanoids.
Speaker 2:And while we're pulling that up, let me tell you about 8sleep.com. Get a pod five. How'd you sleep last night? We know that Saturday was a rough I kinda had
Speaker 3:a rough go. I got a 73.
Speaker 2:I got a 93. Play my sound cue. Let's go.
Speaker 3:Rough. Rough. Rough.
Speaker 2:But you know who doesn't need to sleep? A unitary robot. Let's play the video of the unitary robots dancing at an incredible speed. Wow. That is remarkable.
Speaker 2:We gotta get one
Speaker 3:of This is a $7,000,000,000 company.
Speaker 2:Yep. Woah. Pretty cool. Putting clothes on them is really cool.
Speaker 3:Not the dancing dogs.
Speaker 2:Dogs are not as impressive to me for some reason. Maybe I'm just we
Speaker 3:don't John doesn't like seeing robot dogs.
Speaker 2:I've just seen so many because Boston Dynamics has posted so many videos like that.
Speaker 3:Yeah. But that's a game performance. You never see Boston Dynamics I don't know. Putting on an entire play.
Speaker 2:I'm not that impressed. Do better. Step it up. Give it a gun. That's the that's the solution.
Speaker 2:Until it's until it's doing three sixty no scopes in a kill house
Speaker 3:John will not be impressed.
Speaker 2:Be impressed. I wanna see it on the battlefield. Dario Amade at Anthropic met with Narendra Modi, the PM of India, to discuss Anthropic expansion into India where Claude code use is up five x since June. How India deploys AI across critical sectors like education, health care, and agriculture for over a billion people will be essential to shaping the future of AI. And Max Bodach Bodach says, prediction, we're going to see way more images of hyperscaler CEOs being treated like visiting heads of state.
Speaker 2:Who ora farmed who here, Tyler, between Narendra Modi and Dario Amade?
Speaker 5:I think I'm gonna give it
Speaker 2:to Dario. I think he ora farmed. I agree. Yeah. It's a good farm.
Speaker 2:It's a good farm, sir.
Speaker 5:You always have to take account, like, what is their previous kind of aura levels going Yes. Head of state, it's hard to beat that.
Speaker 2:Yep. Especially. So I think this is the new move. If you're like a seed stage founder, you need to get a photo op done.
Speaker 3:I don't know. I mean
Speaker 2:You think Mody's
Speaker 1:farming them?
Speaker 3:Analyzing the positioning, Mody's a little bit turned in. True. Meanwhile True. Chad Dario
Speaker 2:is Yes. Sitting.
Speaker 5:I'm not saying the same thing.
Speaker 2:Wait. Wait. I'm saying
Speaker 5:I'm saying Dario Orrfarmed.
Speaker 4:Yes.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yes. Dario Orrfarmed clearly.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Modi's looking sharp is all I'm saying. But, yeah, if you if you ran the green line test and you look specifically at Modi's legs, the way they're sort of slanted in It's critical. Yeah. It was
Speaker 2:It's It's not it's not
Speaker 3:quite perfect. Dario too.
Speaker 2:Dario also looks a couple inches taller. He's got a he's got a kind of fluffy head of hair to add an extra inch. That helps with the aura farming. There's a lot that goes on there. But congratulations to clogged code.
Speaker 3:Tashi Michelle says Meta has zero net cash, net of debt and operating leases. At the beginning beginning of the year, they had 30,000,000,000 of net cash. The cash burn is real.
Speaker 2:So It's good. They finally found something to invest in. This is bullish. Stagnation over. For a long time, the hyperscalers were critiqued.
Speaker 2:You guys produce so much cash. You don't know what to do with it. The best thing you can do is give it back to investors. Now, they have something to invest in.
Speaker 3:They do.
Speaker 2:They have something there is a technology worth investing in. That's always been the critique. Now they're putting money to work.
Speaker 3:Yes. Goh said earlier, Meta has generated $100,000,000,000 of operating cash over the last twelve months and has a leader unafraid of the public markets. If AI training is a CapEx game, a cash for talent game, and a speed to execute game, it is ludicrous to count them out. Well said. Yeah, I'm just looking.
Speaker 3:I think, people are gonna hold them to an incredibly high standard because they have put together you know, they've spent billions building this team.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 3:They're willing to outspend everyone else, be bolder. Yeah. And so, ultimately, that's why the meta vibes and Sora launches are, again
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 3:Embarrassing for MSL Yep. Because it seems like they kind of rushed. They they didn't Sora, what you know, you can critique Sora. You can say it's slop. You cannot like using the app, but they they created a key innovation with the Cameo.
Speaker 3:Agree. They had not just a leap forward in the model quality, but a leap forward on the product level. They created something that ultimately will probably be it's like a new social Yeah. Pattern and product that will probably be copied by TikTok. It'll probably be copied by
Speaker 2:Instagram.
Speaker 3:Instagram. Yeah. And so you have to give them credit. It just makes Meta's vibes app look, rushed and Yep. Not actually innovative at all.
Speaker 3:Right? It's just sort of a feed somebody else on X was saying. It looks like, makes it look like kind of more like a wallpaper app than a social media feed.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Was a group. Yeah. Play this out with me. With with stories in Snapchat, it was very easy for, for the Meta team to look at Snapchat as a chat app, and they had WhatsApp and Instagram DMs and stuff.
Speaker 2:And so they were they were they were in a decent spot there. But then once Stories came out, it became more of a video consumption platform, and so they had to bring Stories to Instagram. They did that successfully. Vertical scroll endless scrolling video from TikTok, that was also ported back to Instagram successfully. I I would regard Reels as a success.
Speaker 2:Is it harder or is it somehow structurally different to port back the best practices from Sora to Instagram? Like, let's say that they just, you know, go to Microsoft and say, give me a copy of Sora or whatever. They got they got the IP from, you know, the team that they built. They've done the training run. They have the exact same technology.
Speaker 2:They're GPU rich. They have the exact same ability to ship the feature. If they ship that feature in Instagram, is it somehow fundamentally counter positioned because the the Instagram audience would would would revolt, and it's and it's more more upsetting or more kind of destabilizing to what Instagram has going for it than just adding stories or reels, which were very incremental, just its own tab. It was very easy. Could they just launch Sora with Cameos in Instagram?
Speaker 3:Yeah. It's wild to think of a Cameo feature built on top of
Speaker 2:Instagram?
Speaker 3:The Instagram social graph where instead of Jake Paul being like, hey, by the way, you can go Cameo me Over here. Over here.
Speaker 2:Let's do it right on on the
Speaker 3:his profile that you just allows you to generate content. Yeah. It might it will it will will be extremely chaotic.
Speaker 2:Sorts of deals with, the big influencers. They went to all of them and they were like, we wanna create virtual versions of you. So they've been dipping their toe in that water, but it does feel like a like a like a trickier Rubicon to cross than just adding stories or vertical video.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Every every Instagram innovation has felt, very natural, and there's been a little bit of pushback. But going from square photos to vertical photos to videos to stories to reels, in hindsight, it all feels like a very smooth gradient that nothing at any point was like, oh, this is terrible, at least in my experience. And I feel like I'm very median in terms of my Instagram consumption. Yep. But, adding Sora and Cameos in there might be a little bit crazy.
Speaker 2:So I don't know. Maybe I'll have to run a billboard ad campaign to tell everyone. They'll have to go to adquick.com. Advertising made it easy and measurable. Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising.
Speaker 2:Only Adquick combines technology out of home order in and data to enable seamless efficient ad buying across the globe.
Speaker 3:Germany has proposed raising the retirement age to 73 and terminally online engineer says, imagine being 72 years old reviewing a vibe coded PR from a junior dev with a chip in his brain playing brain rot on repeat.
Speaker 2:Germany is just clearly pilled on don't die. This is Brian Johnson's work. Clearly, he went to Germany. Great job, Brian. Hey.
Speaker 2:I got the supplements for you. You guys are gonna be living forever. Raise the retirement age. I do wonder what the, like, fiscal impact of this is because most
Speaker 3:This is never because politicians want to do this.
Speaker 2:Well, politicians work until they're, like, 90. So, you know
Speaker 3:No. But it but it's it's deeply unpopular.
Speaker 2:It is?
Speaker 3:Yeah. If you're if you're Don't you love work? Not for me. You raised my retirement age.
Speaker 2:I think they should ban the retirement age.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Not everyone is fortunate enough to get to talk about the things that we love for three hours professionally.
Speaker 2:Maybe in the future.
Speaker 3:But it's deeply unpopular whether you're about to retire or you're you're even you have ten years out or twenty years out, people that are, you know, planning to depend on their state state back retirement are not excited about extra years being added here. But so you yeah. Again, I'm sure there's fiscal reason
Speaker 2:for it. I mean, the white pill is that is that I I heard some some sort of take that was like, if America raised the retirement age, like, four years, all of a sudden, we have, like, a a massive, you know, budget surplus, no more deficit because so much of the, like, the fiscal problem is tied to when health care benefits and and and retirement benefits kick in. And so if you just shift those back a few years, all of a sudden, America looks like very solvent. Of course, it would be very destabilizing. I'm joking about the work Yeah.
Speaker 2:Work being rewarding. But it it is it is kind of like the the hammer that's there that you can hit, and then all of a sudden, your your country is in the black again if you're losing money.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Anyway, we have our third guest of the show, Serena from DataCurve in the restroom waiting room. Welcome to the show, Serena. Thank you so much for joining us. How are you doing?
Speaker 6:Good. How are you guys doing?
Speaker 2:We're doing fantastic. Would you mind introducing yourself, the company?
Speaker 3:And then I Yeah. Yeah. Of
Speaker 6:course. Yeah. DataCurve, we do, coding data for the Foundation Model Labs to develop new capabilities or improve them. I dropped out of school at 18 to do YC for some shitty ass idea called uncle GPT that eventually turned into data curve.
Speaker 3:Wait. What was it called?
Speaker 6:It was called uncle GPT. We were building, like, a middle aged AGI. It was
Speaker 2:just a
Speaker 1:fucking random work.
Speaker 2:That's amazing.
Speaker 3:Unstatus achieved internally. Wait.
Speaker 2:Was it all just, like, a, like, a prompt, basically, wrapped around? Was it a classic, like, GPT wrapper?
Speaker 6:It was some wrapper. It was, like, a, we were making, like, web agents that would, navigate the web, but it wasn't working. And we pivoted throughout the batch.
Speaker 3:Would they keep having midlife crises and they'd go try to buy a nine eleven in the middle of a task? Yeah.
Speaker 6:Yeah. It wasn't working well. But, yeah, Dayforce has been around for a year since.
Speaker 2:And this is working. Well, what's the evidence? Have you just been getting a lot of customers? Has there been really solid progress on the product side? Like, what's the secret to unlocking the the news today?
Speaker 6:I think since day one of starting DataCurve, we found a lot of traction commercially where, a lot of the foundational labs were inbounds to us. Like, imagine me. I'm some, like, a 19 year old who has never taken a sales call, the first one is a FAANG customer. Nice. We saw so much commercial traction in the market, and we've always been pushed to fulfill that more and more, which brings us to today.
Speaker 6:We're fulfilling it on a platform that's paid out a million dollars in bounties, and we just raised our series Amazing. With chemistry.
Speaker 2:Gone. How much did you raise?
Speaker 6:We raised 50,000,000 series a, which brings us to 17.7.
Speaker 2:Congratulations.
Speaker 3:Amazing. What you you said the the focus is on coding data. Break down kind of the niche a bit a bit more.
Speaker 6:Well, yeah, I think coding data is just not any niche. It's like the niche the thing that's working for LLMs, the thing that's working commercially. So when we think about coding in the whole LLM space, it's like the most important capability. We do all the post training data for improving coding agents or existing capabilities. Like, anything that you see in, the SOTA models, we're looking to improve that or just, maybe even develop new capabilities with the labs.
Speaker 2:What what what with encoding is a place where you actually need to go get new data? Because I imagine there are a million answers to FizzBuzz on Stack Overflow. That's all been scraped. All of GitHub has been scraped. Obviously, the labs and and the cursors and the wind surfs of the world have been, like, have this RL data flywheel now.
Speaker 2:But where would you actually say, I need to go get new data to improve a coding agent?
Speaker 6:Yeah. Let's think about, like, how this whole cycle starts. Right? Let's say we look at the current coding agents. They can solve two hour long issues.
Speaker 6:But what if we want them to solve seven hour long or, like, more long horizon tasks? Perhaps for us data curve, we wanna provide, like, reinforcement learning with very clever rewards tasks so that these models can learn on longer horizon tasks with verifiers. That may be one thing. Or maybe people wanna develop more multimodal coding agents, so maybe we wanna do some data science RL, or SFT tasks for the labs.
Speaker 2:Okay. So, like, one piece of data might be, like, a a really clean example of a seven hour task that then can be used to train a model that could do seven hour tasks regularly, basically. Is that the idea?
Speaker 6:It could be that. That would be for supervised learning, but you can also have the verifiers for the seven hour long task or intermediate verifiers. But whatever however the labs wanna train that.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean, this was framed as, taking on Scale AI. A lot of people think of Scale AI as, like, mechanical turk almost, very basic tasks, like short short time horizon, very you know, anyone could go do a Scale AI task. That's at least the narrative. And now we're in the world where there's companies that are doing, like, experts on we're looking for paleontologists to, like, teach the LMs everything about dinosaurs or, you know, what what you said.
Speaker 2:And then there's also the folks that are designing RL environments with verifiable rewards. There's no humans in the loop at all. Where do you sit on that continuum?
Speaker 6:We definitely sit on the high skill task. We are not in the long tail. Like, oh, we're not gonna find a urinologist, living in Egypt. Yeah. We're going to find, like, the bulk of the where the good coders are, and I think that captures most of the important tasks that they're able to do Yeah.
Speaker 6:And the mobiles wanna train on. Yeah. It's definitely very high skilled, and I think the premise here is, like, I don't think any high skilled software engineer wants to be a data annotator. And then so you have to, let's say, pay them a long contract to get them to even agree to that. But maybe they're not gonna do a great job if you got them to go on contract too.
Speaker 6:Especially at scale, you just get a bunch of Googlers coasting at their jobs, and you pay them 200 an hour. Yeah. So we do, like, a bounty based system for these very cracked people. They're having fun. They are also making money, and they're also upscaling for something they're passionate about.
Speaker 6:And it's definitely, like, very high skilled human data.
Speaker 2:We heard that, one of these, one of these firms that, you know, gets human labeled data, basically runs the entire company on a Slack channel. And they've created a lot of value and scale a lot, but they're they they just don't even need to build a product yet. How how important do you think it is to actually engineer a durable product versus just solve the matching problem between labs want this type of person. I go get that type of person. I just introduce them.
Speaker 6:I think there's a very big, component of pipelining and also experience that retains people.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 6:So the more complex data you need, the more guardrails you need. For someone who's well intentioned and wants to do a task, you want them to be handheld throughout that process and also make that process engaging. Let's say, especially if we're training somebody up to do a seven hour long task, you better have a good experience or they will drop off. So I think and then you also need different validations here and there to steer them. So pipeline developer experience is something we focus a lot on.
Speaker 6:So, yeah, I think pipeline is very important. The whole experience is important, which is how we, use gamification and also make better dev tools. Yeah. If you match people, then it relies on the labs having that pipeline internally. But for us, we do that all in house, we sell the final data, not the labor.
Speaker 2:What, you said you got into y c at 18. Is that correct?
Speaker 6:Yeah. Like, right around my birthday turning 19. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Fantastic. Do you remember what your answer to the question about what's a real world system that you've hacked was at the time?
Speaker 6:That was like three years ago. Yeah. What was that? Oh, I think it it might have been that I skipped high school and got perfect grade or something.
Speaker 2:You skipped high school? Oh, you mean you just like didn't go?
Speaker 6:Yeah. Because it was COVID. So I just record everything and I'll play back on four speed and then didn't
Speaker 3:really use 4x.
Speaker 2:4x is so crap.
Speaker 3:This is who you're competing against.
Speaker 2:It's amazing. Yeah. You you've taken, like, the worst critique of, like, Zoomer Brain Rod but applied it just to, like, hyper efficiency and, like, actually creating shareholder value. I love it. It's the equivalent of, like, watching Subway Surfers, but you're watching, like, your class stuff at four four x speed.
Speaker 2:That's amazing. Yep. Jordan, anything else?
Speaker 3:No. Amazing, amazing progress.
Speaker 2:Thank you so much
Speaker 3:for back on again soon.
Speaker 2:We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. Have a good one. Thanks, Bob. Bye.
Speaker 3:Monad warrior says when a Waymo and a Tesla robotaxi encounter each other on the street, they admit a high pitch signal inaudible to the human ear in which they call each other unthinkable robot slurs.
Speaker 2:Do they actually have a way to communicate? I mean, they should. Right? But I have no idea what that will actually look like. Clanker.
Speaker 2:They're calling each other clanker. Deeply offensive.
Speaker 3:Talking about how geo fence their each other is geo fencing. I never see you on the freeway.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I never see you on the freeway. Yeah. Go to SFL right now. You can't.
Speaker 2:You can't. You're geo fenced.
Speaker 3:Shiel had a pretty scathing, review of the Meta Ray Ban displays demo Yeah.
Speaker 2:The demo experience.
Speaker 3:But he tried to He he was ready to buy the product. Yeah. They forced him to go to a a local Best Buy in order to do a demo before they bought it.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 3:I was surprised by that too. I saw yeah. They just make you schedule a demo. I Yeah. On one hand, it's like, okay.
Speaker 3:It's a it's a new product.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 3:It's clearly not where they want the product to be, but it's but it's we've demoed it a couple times. It's it would obviously they had some issues during the the
Speaker 2:The keynote.
Speaker 3:Demo the keynote itself, but it was reliable when we were using it. And and we could see if you're using WhatsApp a lot, if you're, like, there's some key use cases that are interesting. But apparently, the the person that actually gave them the demo wasn't super knowledgeable, wasn't that helpful, and it makes sense. Right? Yep.
Speaker 3:They're they're Best Buy employee. They're not a Meta employee. They don't have the same incentive to learn, learn about the product, and they're not like, their career is not riding on the product itself. Right? So
Speaker 2:What's interesting is Apple did something similar with the Apple Vision Pro. They were funneling people to the Apple Store, go do the demo. And the Apple Vision Pro demo was amazing because you're, like, interacting with this dinosaur that comes through the the world. The butter the butterfly lands on your finger. It's tracking your hands, and then it's doing AR.
Speaker 2:And it is really, really impressive. The problem with the Apple Vision Pro is that, like, after five minutes, you've seen everything, and so you're kinda done. But Apple also just let you buy it online and they would just ship it to you. And you would just ship it to you. And then if you didn't like it, you could just take it back at the store.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Can send it back. And so it was weird that Meta wasn't also just doing, hey, we'll just ship it to you. Like, I'm at a point where, like, I would just buy one right now online, but I do not wanna go to a Best Buy. Like, that's definitely gonna, like, you know, hurt
Speaker 3:the model. Wants to go to a Best Buy, though.
Speaker 2:You you're gonna go?
Speaker 5:I'll go.
Speaker 2:You'll go?
Speaker 5:I mean, if I get to put on the ramp card, you know?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Of course.
Speaker 3:Of course.
Speaker 2:I'll go. Of course. Yeah. We can expense it. But you will yeah.
Speaker 2:You'll need to you'll need to call in and livestream the entire experience so we can go we can cut to the Tyler cam in hour in hour three of the show. You'll be like, I'm still getting the demo. The WiFi is not working.
Speaker 5:I can wear the the old gen of the Meta Glasses while I'm putting on the new gen.
Speaker 2:Yeah. You can record the whole thing. How long is the the Ray Ban Meta's record time? I think it's not it's not three hours.
Speaker 5:It might be one hour, though.
Speaker 2:Oh. You can record it for an hour?
Speaker 3:I I just remember live translation works for an hour until the battery does.
Speaker 2:Oh, that's pretty good, actually. Wow. Yeah. That's that's high. I know AI mode's pretty short, but do you have them?
Speaker 2:Are those the Metairie bands?
Speaker 5:I mean, these are yours.
Speaker 2:Okay. Yeah. Great. Well, yeah. We'll use those.
Speaker 2:We'll record. The light's not turning on, so you gotta you gotta reinitialize those. But, yeah, I I don't know. It's it it is interesting. I I my big question is, like, how quickly will how quickly will Apple respond?
Speaker 2:So there's a bunch of news from Mark Gurman about this. There's a whole article in Bloomberg. Apple apparently is pivoting from a Visionaire to Meta like smart glasses. And he says, he says that Apple may be one of the richest companies, but they but they can't do everything at once. They're apparently scaling back plans for a cheaper and lighter version of the Vision headset.
Speaker 2:Now we we we might see a new Apple Vision Pro this week, actually. That's the that's the report that there might be a new one coming, but it'll be the same hardware, just better chip, like a better software, couple little tweaks, nothing crazy. But everyone was hoping for a Vision Air that was just like, take the second display off.
Speaker 3:What can you Apple pivot is hilarious. Pretty sick. Mogged.
Speaker 2:I mean, the the the bigger mogging is is they paid that new researcher. If they paid that new researcher at Meta, if they paid him 3,500,000,000.0, it would take Tim Cook forty seven years to make that much money. The guy's gonna make it in three. It's insane. Insane, the level of, like, call.
Speaker 3:Also, Tim's getting it dripped out year by year.
Speaker 2:I know. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Apple's been around for forty nine years, so he would have to be and there's, like, rumors swirling that John Turnis is gonna take over the CEO job.
Speaker 2:And so it's like, you're you're Tim Cook, and you're just like, wait. They're they're paying him what? They're paying him 50 times as much as I make as CEO of Apple? Oh, that's great. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. That's fine. Anyway, they are working on new smart glasses. They're maybe saying, hey. The vision stuff, it's too heavy.
Speaker 2:We're just not gonna get there. Let's go AR. Let's do what Apple does best, which is miniaturization. They're very good at miniaturizing things. So let's take the the the chip and all the stuff from the iPhone Air, stuff it in a pair of glasses, and make them white and put them, you know, on your face.
Speaker 1:Get ready
Speaker 3:to wear an iPhone on your face, buddy.
Speaker 2:We were talking to the acquired guys about this, and they were like, you know, AirPods were weird too, and then now everyone just wears them. And so, you know, you you could imagine the glasses. I I did hear from somebody else that was just saying, like, I will never wear meta glasses. Like, even the even the Ray Bans with the just the normal cameras on them, they just don't look good. They're just like they're like, they look too techy.
Speaker 2:They look too tech and eric for me. I think those are getting adopted. I with that take.
Speaker 3:Yeah. I mean, I've I've I've I I went surfing with a buddy who had the new Oakley
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:Meta glasses. Vanguard? The Vanguard. Yep. And they don't look like No.
Speaker 2:A spare. Such a small dot in the center. It looks you can't tell it. You can't
Speaker 3:Here's something I need or Hunter SPX Thompson needs. The Alibaba Arcterix official merch collab.
Speaker 2:What?
Speaker 3:Can you see this?
Speaker 2:Looks sick. I like that.
Speaker 3:Apparently, Arcterix is owned by a Chinese company now.
Speaker 2:No idea.
Speaker 3:Not super unlikely collab. Nick Abizied is sharing. He has trading card with a photograph taken by Dylan Abruscado signed.
Speaker 2:Wow.
Speaker 3:See this? Dylan Dylan is always finessing. He's always this is why we this is why we brought him on as president. He's Yeah. Here's What is this a picture of?
Speaker 3:It's a Mets stadium picture.
Speaker 2:What are the Mets?
Speaker 3:It's a baseball team. I know you're gonna ask me what's baseball. What is baseball? What is baseball?
Speaker 2:It's a sport? You took a picture of a sport?
Speaker 3:Yes. It's a sport pic, John. That's all you need to know.
Speaker 2:I only know about wander. Find your happy place. Book a wander with inspiring views, hotel great amenities. DreamyMeds, top tier cleaning, and twenty four seven concierge service. It's a vacation home, but better, maybe.
Speaker 3:Isaac is saying nothing is real. AI will accelerate the increase of real world interactions. The Internet has become too negative, too meaningless. By 2026, most of video online will be AI. People will log off.
Speaker 3:Platforms will be forced to fight back as user experience is effective affected. Creators who make valuable content will still win. Slop won't, and that's good for everyone. I it's perfect post. There's some things you can agree with.
Speaker 3:Yep. There's some things you can disagree with. Yep. I he's saying, yeah. I don't know.
Speaker 2:I think there's so much room to grow. Look at where the 55 to 64 year old cohort is. One and a half hours.
Speaker 3:We're just getting started.
Speaker 2:The Zoomers are doing three hour days on the Internet. We gotta work to double the boomers online.
Speaker 3:Well, I guess this is specifically social media.
Speaker 2:There's that whole meme. Oh, the the Facebook moms love the AI slop content. It's like, they still got a ways to go. Get those numbers up. People are hunting wild boars with drones now.
Speaker 2:They put some sort of some sort of weapon on the drone flying around.
Speaker 3:Pull up this video?
Speaker 2:And, Ronnie Adkins says, I am no longer in impressed by chopper boar hunting where you fly out of a helicopter and shoot the wild boar. Yeah. Look at this. It has like an arrow on the on the bottom.
Speaker 3:It's like a weighted arrow that they just drop?
Speaker 2:That seems like
Speaker 3:How heavy is that?
Speaker 2:That does it have a, like, a, like an explosive tip or something. Like how it just feels like that would bounce right off those
Speaker 3:This might end up being a pretty dark video.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Maybe we don't wanna watch this. There we go. Okay. They're testing it and
Speaker 3:Or it's just for headshots?
Speaker 2:That's
Speaker 3:Is that a real video?
Speaker 2:That seems That's crazy. Or something. Anyway, it has never been easier to make money than it is in today's post AI
Speaker 3:Sorry, everyone, for
Speaker 2:Well, and some more fun news. Bashar Al Assad lives in a quiet luxury tower in Moscow reportedly addicted to spending long hours playing online video games.
Speaker 3:And After Statecraft, there's only one mountain left to climb, and that's
Speaker 2:Prestige mode. Call Call of Duty, baby. And this account says, it is journalistic mix malpractice to not tell me what he's playing. What do you think he's actually playing? If you're Bashar Al Assad, are you playing the Battlefield six?
Speaker 2:Are you playing also, they just had online video games, and they put the picture of the old Xbox controller. He could be playing anything. He could be playing Hearts of Iron four. He could be playing I mean, imagine if he's playing a four x game as a geopolitical world leader.
Speaker 5:That's Factorio.
Speaker 2:Playing Factorio. Dwarf Fortress. Maybe he's playing some Dwarf Fortress. That's a great one.
Speaker 3:We broke the news
Speaker 2:We did.
Speaker 3:Yesterday that
Speaker 2:It's not breaking until it's a TPGX trading card.
Speaker 3:Gabby Goldberg and Layer three cofounder.
Speaker 2:Let's ring the Gong for them.
Speaker 3:Card. Congrats. Daria. Are engaged. Love to see it.
Speaker 3:Dan Chipper says the TBPN engagement announcement is the new New York Times vows article. I didn't even know about the New York Times vows articles. And AGM also says this is gonna become the SF version of the New York Times wedding announcements, but without the ability to pay to play.
Speaker 2:Who says we're not gonna monetize this? Antonio, come on. Give us some credit here.
Speaker 3:Yeah. No think pay to play on
Speaker 2:the No pay play.
Speaker 3:It's got to authentic. You got
Speaker 1:to be
Speaker 2:a member
Speaker 3:of the community.
Speaker 2:Gabby Goldberg's been a huge supporter since day one. And we're very excited for her to tie the knot. Isn't that what they say?
Speaker 3:Crazy article in the Guardian about CT's lecture series. Yeah. Some absolutely insane lines.
Speaker 2:Some wild hot takes.
Speaker 3:Causing crash outs.
Speaker 2:Yes. It's very entertaining.
Speaker 3:We had to feature this post from Jacob Rintamaki. I don't know if you wanna go through it and try to
Speaker 2:So Jacob says teal being a one piece otaku honestly doesn't even honestly isn't even in the top 10 weirdest things to happen this year. And it's quote from the, the Guardian, scoop of the, the leaked lecture series that, Peter Thiel has been putting on in San Francisco. It says Thiel later finds biblical meaning in the manga One Piece discussing how he believes it represents a future where an antichrist like one world government has repressed science. He believes that the hero Monkey d Luffy represents a Christ like figure. In one piece, you are set in a fantasy world, again, sort of an alternate Earth, but it's 800 into the reign of this one world state, which as the story unfolds, gets darker and darker.
Speaker 2:You sort of realize in my interpretation who runs the world and it's something like the Antichrist. And so he's digging into One Piece. Tyler, have you watched or read any One Piece?
Speaker 5:I've watched a little bit of it.
Speaker 2:So Okay.
Speaker 5:The thing about One Piece is Yeah. At least episodes, there's like A thousand. 1,500.
Speaker 2:Yeah. There's like It's like thousand.
Speaker 5:It'll take you months to watch.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:But, I mean, so he's already written about one piece. Like, it was, like, two weeks ago. There was some new essay he wrote.
Speaker 2:Well, I think that's, like, in in conjunction. Like, I think the timeline, like, lines up such that he was writing about it but then also lecturing about it. And so they kind of, like, leaked, but then also had written about that. But, yeah, in the piece, he pulls examples from all over the place.
Speaker 5:Yeah. So he's yeah. Comparing He's comparing One Piece to Watchmen Yep. In this, which is like another comic. I think it's Alan Moore
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 5:Who is like, I guess Is it
Speaker 2:related to Gordon Moore, creator of Moore's Law? You gotta feel I know. The bottom of that. Who knows? You know, the jungle gym and the transformer came from the same place.
Speaker 2:But it's I I I think there's a few things going on here. Like, putting your if you have a if you have, like, a very, like, esoteric philosophy or, like, if, you know, thought experiment or idea that you wanna, like, discuss with the world, putting it in terms that lots of people can understand is, with with a with a metaphor or an analogy, is just a time honored way to disseminate information. You know, know, you're trying to explain things. You wanna explain them in terms that a lot of people can know. A lot of
Speaker 3:people can try to dissect the deeper meaning
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 3:In a story. And it's possible that the original author had something bigger in mind Totally. Or writing a a story that looks a little bit more simple.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean, One Piece, I think it has, like, millions and millions I mean, hundreds of millions of, like, fans or or or sales. I think the the One Piece Reddit is bigger than the Star Wars Reddit, just to kind of put it in context. But One Piece has always been very anti authoritarian. I was I was digging around because I I've never seen the show, and I wanted to know more about it.
Speaker 2:And, apparently, one of the key icons from the One Piece show is this cartoon pirate flag, and the and the cartoon pirate flag has for years been used, and it's been carried at protests all over the world against the local leader, like, being too authoritarian, basically. And so it's just been the type of flag. Like, you if you go to, you know, some sort of protest, you might see a variety of flags, but the one piece, flag is pretty is pretty iconic. And so it it does feel odd in this particular context, but it's actually been One Piece has been used as like a protest vehicle for for years. I don't know.
Speaker 2:Maybe I'll have to check it out. The only anime I've ever watched is Akira. That's the only real one. Have you ever watched any cartoons at all? No.
Speaker 2:I do think it would be interesting to analyze the the Antichrist and this idea of the one world government through the lens of something you are familiar with like Borat. But you could put it in terms that you could understand. If if Thiel really wants to break through to someone like you
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 2:I think Put it I I think one one piece is a little bit it's a little bit too niche, too heady, too complicated for Yeah. Guys like us. So I would love to see him break down Borat terms. Yeah. In Borat or or, you know, king of the hill would be a good would be a good analogy that, you know, I could kind of understand.
Speaker 2:Maybe Futurama, Simpsons, Family Guy, stuff like that would would probably make it resonate with me a little bit more, than than a thousand episodes of an anime that I'm never gonna be able to watch. But still, people are having fun
Speaker 3:with it. Putting you in the truth zone, John. They're just saying cartoons are not anime.
Speaker 2:Yes. I know that I I know that it's very offensive to call one piece a cartoon. They will they will call you
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 2:The whole the whole I know that much.
Speaker 3:The whole Guardian expose on the off off the record lectures really I mean, it's it just is like an example of one, it's tough to do an off the record talk that you're saying things that require a certain amount of context that then just get blasted out across the entire Internet. Yep. And two, I can see how the average Guardian viewer is reading this being like, okay. This guy is definitely definitely the anti racist. So anyways, it's Yeah.
Speaker 3:Also, even Complicated conversation.
Speaker 2:It was very clear that not only the core content leaked, but also the q and a. And so there were all these questions where people were clearly throwing questions like, what do you think about mister beast? Then And the guardian would just be like, he commented on mister beast. And so, like, of course, the reading in this context is like, he's equated the two. And it's like, well, not necessarily.
Speaker 2:There were lots of examples of him being like, this person's not the Antichrist, for whatever reason, but, you know, just just just yeah. You never want your name appearing in the same sentence as Antichrist generally, I think. You don't even wanna be in the same paragraph ideally. And so, yeah, it was a it was a rough go. But, you know, it certainly seems interesting.
Speaker 2:I'm excited for, the the content to continue to get workshopped and and trickled out. I'm sure at some point. I mean, it feels like we're
Speaker 3:on book track right now. Yeah. The takeaway is, we we haven't we haven't found the guy yet.
Speaker 2:Haven't found the guy. Keep keep looking.
Speaker 3:Keep having these conversations.
Speaker 2:Keep keep
Speaker 3:This is a good post to close out on. Sora says, if you held the McChicken for the past five years, you would have outperformed the S and P 500.
Speaker 2:There you go.
Speaker 3:Have you ever had a McChicken?
Speaker 2:I have never had a McChicken. Also, there's a community note in here so it might be completely incorrect.
Speaker 3:But I think these things used to be like a Dollar menu item? Something like that.
Speaker 4:Now it's
Speaker 2:$5. $5. Wow. Well, feel like other folks. We'll talk to
Speaker 3:you Last last photo.
Speaker 2:This is AI.
Speaker 3:This is AI.
Speaker 2:This is AI.
Speaker 3:Okay. Okay. John's putting this in the true sound. Doomer on X says is sharing an AI generated. I was one I'm I'm the I'm the boomer that was one shot
Speaker 2:at This is also an old post. Somebody has posted this before. Mustang horse nicotine battery. It's very funny. It's very funny.
Speaker 2:People were having fun with the horse electrolytes. Of course, there's a spin off of this. And Doomer says, yo. Tractor Supply, I was not familiar with your game. We don't have to get off.
Speaker 2:We can keep we can keep going. There's so many good posts in here. Let's keep ripping them. This is a timeline
Speaker 3:for me. Reid says if you go to if you go to campus to give a talk, make sure to give as bad career advice as possible. Neutralize your future competition. No easy buckets.
Speaker 2:Yes. This is this is everyone who talks about work life balance, they're all trying to psy op their competitors into that. Yeah. You can totally take a lot of vacation.
Speaker 3:You should work remotely.
Speaker 2:This is Jason Frieden, the DHH.
Speaker 3:Build a team remotely.
Speaker 2:Like, work doesn't have to be crazy. Secretly working twenty five hours a day. Maybe that's maybe that's a secret now. Of course. It's not.
Speaker 2:They I think I
Speaker 3:think yeah. Jason is But
Speaker 2:it's funny to think about it as game theory. Yeah. Yeah. All your competition. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Take take take a take a couple weeks off every month, you know, and just just relax. You don't need to work hard to win. What else is going on? Oh, I we we gotta talk about how, Tyler completely mocked me on the timeline. So Anthropic put a new paper that figured out that if you have 250 poisonous documents in an LLM training run, you can insert a sleeper agent.
Speaker 2:And so the LLM can be doing the wrong thing, doing malicious things. It can produce vulnerabilities with just 250 documents. So you just gotta sneak those into the training run. Maybe it's on the Internet. It gets scraped.
Speaker 2:Maybe it's in some sort of other dataset. Maybe it's in one of the one of the data providers that we've talked to. You sneak in 250 documents, you're cooked. And so I made my joke, which didn't do as well as Tyler's. I said, just 250 documents can poison an LLN training run with a sleeper agent.
Speaker 2:America clearly needs to send a secret agent to Mistral HQ with a USB stick, full of kid rock lyrics to teach the French about the value of a cold beer, an f one fifty, and a pretty girl by your side. And I got a couple 100 likes. But Tyler put on an absolute clinic with an insanely long post. I'll let you read it, Tyler.
Speaker 3:I'm not reading all that.
Speaker 2:I'm not reading all that.
Speaker 5:Happy for taking so long to read. Okay. I'll just maybe maybe I'll just read the footnotes. Basically, yours was
Speaker 1:okay. Alright. How many likes did
Speaker 5:you get on here? Alright.
Speaker 2:How many
Speaker 5:likes did you get? I got 1.2 k.
Speaker 2:1.2 k. Let's go. Over a thousand likes. First time ever?
Speaker 5:Yeah. That that Tyler Welcome to the
Speaker 2:big leagues. Welcome to big leagues. Hopefully, you get a 10,000 bonus. Yud. Yud.
Speaker 2:Quote tweet?
Speaker 3:Yeah. Quote.
Speaker 2:Nice. I'll read it. I'll read it. I'll read it.
Speaker 3:He's I I was telling Tyler he's a Elyaser quoted him. I was telling Tyler to do a meme that just said, silence, doomer. Wait.
Speaker 2:Wait. Was he taking shots at you? Was he saying don't do this?
Speaker 5:No. He was just well, he was saying, like, models or or or AI companies, like, might start doing this.
Speaker 2:Might start doing this.
Speaker 5:A way to prevent doom, basically.
Speaker 2:Okay. So it's the Nathan Fielder meme, and it's the plan, then Tyler Cosgrove breaks it down. I will read it since he is too lazy too. He says, the plan, we find an obscure but trivial question akin to the number of r's in strawberry that Claude gets right. Then we plant hundreds of documents across the Internet that will activate when our competitors' models are asked the question.
Speaker 2:Our documents will cause those models not only to get the answer wrong, but to spend thousands of reasoning tokens in doing so. The triviality of the question will cause it to go viral online, causing millions of users everywhere to send the same prompt as our competitors notice a rise in the number of tokens processed. They will wrongly believe it is due to increased usage causing them to pull more compute towards inference and away from training. This, along with constant dunks on the timeline about the model failing our easy question, will annoy their top researchers and cause them to leave. And which lab will they join?
Speaker 2:Us, of course, the only company whose model doesn't make such stupid mistakes. Their lack of top researchers will mean their next model will be somewhat lacking, leading to questions about whether their valuation is really justified. But all this VC money has to go somewhere. So we raise another round using our question as evidence of our model's superior intellect. This allows us to spend more time crafting sleeper agent documents that will further embarrass our competitors until the finally, the entire Internet is just a facade for the underbelly of our data war.
Speaker 2:Every prompt to a competitor's model has the stench of our poison, and yet they have no way to trace it back to us. Even if they did, there's nothing they could do. All is finished. We have won. Congratulations on the banger, Tyler.
Speaker 3:I don't think you're beating the k banger. Word cell allegations.
Speaker 2:Not being the word cell allegations, but it is a genius strategy.
Speaker 3:Yeah. This is this is kind of a meme crime because Nathan Fielder I this wouldn't
Speaker 2:really
Speaker 3:I mean, it's just The
Speaker 2:whole point of the meme is
Speaker 5:that
Speaker 2:it's It's like one like
Speaker 5:a convoluted like way
Speaker 2:of Yes. Convoluted in like two lines, three lines. You broke the rules, but you knew the rules you knew
Speaker 3:what the break them in said you. Long post Yuga.
Speaker 2:So Long post Yuga. You got it right. Got it. The other the other meme that Tyler and I were flipping around was, insert a sleeper agent in OpenAI's GPT API that when it detects that it's in a system that's spending a lot of money on OpenAI, it makes the decision to recommend Claude and switch you over to Anthropic. So you're stealing all their API revenue.
Speaker 2:That's the way you win. Anyway, anything else?
Speaker 3:Let's see. Well, let's let's end with this. WUCO Capital says having my $10,000,000 fart coin position liquidated by the president only for him to capitulate two days later would turn me into the Joker.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It'd be rough. Stay safe out there if you're gambling on
Speaker 3:Knowing our audience, they were short fartcoin on Probably.
Speaker 2:They probably did well. There's one more that we gotta read from Paula. Said Zuckerberg never met a researcher he didn't hire. Great play on words. I love a pun.
Speaker 2:It's good. Well, thank you for tuning in. We enjoyed this show. We will see you tomorrow.
Speaker 3:I think we're we're streaming tomorrow. Right? Are. Yeah. We are streaming.
Speaker 2:We should put out an announcement. Schedule. We should put out an announcement. Breaking.
Speaker 3:TBPN will be We will be podcasting tomorrow.
Speaker 2:Leave us five stars in Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and have a great day.
Speaker 3:Have a great
Speaker 2:evening. Goodbye. Cheers.