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Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 20, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected and mapped 52 events on
Wednesday, including exchanges between
US and Ukrainian leaders, and a Hamas
offer to release all hostages at once
in phase two of the ceasefire deal.
We have a lot to cover,
so let's get started.
Political Conflict
"China
The ceasefire negotiations between
the Ta'ang National Liberation Army
(TNLA) and Myanmar's military junta
ended unsuccessfully in Kunming, China.
Despite China's mediation efforts,
both sides failed to reach an agreement
after presenting their demands.
The TNLA proposed a comprehensive
ceasefire that included stopping
military operations and ensuring
civilian access to essential supplies.
Notably, the military junta conducted
airstrikes in TNLA-controlled areas
just before and during the talk."
"Gaza Strip
A Hamas senior official told AFP that
the group is willing to release all
remaining hostages in a single exchange
during the second phase of the Gaza
ceasefire deal rather than in stages.
The second phase would require the end
of the war and IDF withdrawal from Gaza.
After the completion of phase one, 59
Israelis remain in captivity, with 35
confirmed deceased by Israeli authorities.
The official did not specify whether
this single release would include the
bodies of deceased hostages, which were
originally planned for the third phase."
"Iraq
President Barzani of Iraq's
Kurdistan region urged the PKK
to disarm for peace in Turkey,
emphasizing this isn't surrender.
A peace process is underway, and they
are awaiting a message from jailed PKK
leader Ocalan, with Turkey's pro-Kurdish
DEM Party delegation meeting Kurdish
leaders in Iraq to discuss peace efforts.
This follows an October proposal
from Turkish nationalist leader
Bahceli suggesting Ocalan's possible
release if he renounces violence.
The PKK, designated as a terrorist
organization by Turkey, the US, and the
EU, has fought against Turkey for decades.
While the DEM Party has met Ocalan
twice recently, President Erdogan
remains silent on these developments."
"Kenya
Sudan has accused Kenya of hostility
for allowing the Rapid Support Forces
(RSF) to host activities at the Kenyatta
International Convention Centre (KICC).
The Sudanese government claims this
violates principles of good neighborliness
and Kenya's previous commitments.
Kenya's Foreign Affairs PS Korir Sing'oei
denied supporting RSF, stating that Kenya
supports a negotiated settlement and that
allowing political demands to be presented
doesn't indicate government favor.
The RSF met at KICC to plan the launch of
a ""Government of Peace and Unity,"" while
Sudan dismissed this as a ""propaganda
stunt"" and called on the international
community to condemn Kenya's actions."
"Pakistan
Pakistan plans to deport all Afghan
refugees, with immediate pressure on
those in Islamabad and Rawalpindi who
face arrests and forced relocation.
A March 31 deadline has been set
for illegal refugees awaiting
third-country resettlement.
While 1.45
million registered refugees
can stay until June 2025, about
20,000 Afghans approved for U.S.
resettlement are in limbo after
Trump paused refugee programs.
Since 2023, over 824,000
Afghans have returned home, with
deportations rising in January 2024."
"Philippines
The US has condemned China's ""dangerous""
helicopter maneuvers near a Philippine
aircraft patrolling the disputed
Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
The Philippines plans to file a
diplomatic protest over the incident,
describing the Chinese navy's actions
as ""unprofessional and reckless.""
China denies these accusations,
claiming the Philippine aircraft
illegally entered Chinese airspace.
This incident is part of ongoing
tensions over the Scarborough Shoal, over
which both nations claim sovereignty.
The dispute is part of broader
territorial conflicts in the South
China Sea, where China claims most of
the waterway despite a 2016 arbitration
ruling invalidating these claims."
"Ukraine
Andriy Yermak, Head of the
Presidential Office of Ukraine,
met with US Special Envoy Keith
Kellogg in Kyiv on February 19.
During their first meeting, Yermak
emphasized the importance of the
""nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine""
principle in international negotiations
and expressed gratitude for Kellogg's
visit during challenging times.
Yermak stressed Ukraine's desire for
continued US support, highlighting the
need for security guarantees, defense
cooperation, and economic partnership.
The meeting focused on providing
Kellogg with comprehensive information
about the frontline situation
and maintaining strong US-Ukraine
relations based on mutual respect."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian President Zelensky responded
to Donald Trump's claim about his 4%
approval rating, stating that Trump is
influenced by Russian disinformation.
A recent poll by the Kyiv International
Institute of Sociology shows
Zelensky's actual trust rating at 57%.
The dispute comes amid concerns from Kyiv
and European allies about being excluded
from peace discussions following talks
between US and Russian foreign ministers
in Saudi Arabia - their first meeting
since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine."
"United Arab Emirates
UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed
Al Nahyan met with US Secretary of State
Marco Rubio and expressed firm opposition
to Palestinian displacement from Gaza.
During the meeting, the UAE leader
emphasized the need for Gaza's
reconstruction and a comprehensive
peace based on a two-state solution.
The discussion included Trump's
controversial proposal to place Gaza under
US control and relocate its inhabitants.
A Gulf Cooperation Council summit is
planned for Friday in Saudi Arabia,
where Arab nations will address
Trump's Gaza plan, which they oppose.
"
"United States
Secretary of State Marco Rubio
informed European allies that U.S.
sanctions against Russia
would continue until a peace
agreement is reached in Ukraine.
This message was conveyed during
a phone call with European foreign
ministers following U.S.-Russia
talks in Saudi Arabia.
While Rubio maintained a firm stance
on current sanctions, he also suggested
at a press conference that lifting
sanctions could be part of future
peace negotiations, noting that
""concessions"" would be needed from
all parties to end the conflict."
"United States
Former President Trump escalated attacks
on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, calling
him ""a dictator without elections""
and criticizing his leadership.
This comes as US officials meet
with Russia to discuss Ukraine's
war without Ukrainian participation.
Trump's claims about Zelensky being
undemocratic are false, as he was
democratically elected, and elections
were legally postponed due to the war.
Zelensky responded that Trump
is ""living in a disinformation
space"" created by the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, Putin expressed satisfaction
with US negotiations and showed openness
to meeting Trump, highlighting growing
tensions in US-Ukraine relations."
Military Conflict
"Afghanistan
A brief armed confrontation occurred
between Taliban forces and unknown
attackers near Lashkar Gah, Helmand
province's capital, on February 19.
The fighting took place around midnight
in the Safiyan area of Police District 7.
The Taliban has not commented on the
incident, nor has any group claimed
responsibility for the attack.
No information about
casualties has been reported."
"India
Four suspected Maoists were killed
in a gunfight with security forces
in Balaghat district, Madhya Pradesh.
The operation involved multiple security
teams, including Hawk force, CRPF, CoBRA,
and district police, who were responding
to intelligence about the Maoist
movement in the Raunda Forest camp area.
Police recovered three
weapons from the scene."
"Iraq
A violent clash broke out between
Kifri and Khurmatu in Iraq when
three shepherds encountered six ISIS
terrorists while grazing their livestock.
The confrontation escalated into
a firefight, with Peshmerga forces
responding to provide support.
While some livestock were killed,
casualties among the shepherds and
terrorists remain unconfirmed."
"Iraq
Iraqi forces conducted successful
counter-terrorism operations
against ISIS in multiple provinces.
The Counter-Terrorism Service destroyed
ISIS hideouts in the Hamrin Mountains
near oil fields in Saladin, while
police units arrested several ISIS
members in Diyala's Al-Hadid District."
"Iraq
The Turkish military conducted operations
against PKK targets in northern
Iraq, specifically in the Gara and
Hakurk regions, where they reported
neutralizing nine PKK militants.
Additionally, Turkish forces carried
out artillery strikes on PKK positions
at Mount Matin near Al-Amadiyah
district, targeting areas around
the villages of Blava and Barji
with at least ten artillery strikes.
No information was provided
about casualties or damage from
the artillery bombardment."
"Lebanon
An Israeli drone strike on a
car in Ayta ash-Shab, southern
Lebanon, resulted in one fatality.
According to Saudi media outlet al-Hadath,
the deceased was a Hezbollah member.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)
has not provided any official
comment on the incident."
"Lebanon
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)
reported firing warning shots near the
Lebanese border in the Kafr Kila area
after detecting suspicious individuals
gathering close to the border.
The military confirmed that the
suspects retreated from the area
following the warning shots."
"Myanmar
A military junta conducted
an airstrike on Nyaungpinkwin
Village in Tanintharyi Township on
February 17, 2025, at around 9 PM.
The attack, which involved three
bombing runs using likely incendiary
bombs, destroyed approximately 60
out of 600 houses in the village.
Several unexploded bombs
were safely removed by Karen
National Union (KNU) troops."
"Myanmar
The Arakan Army (AA) and Arakan Rohingya
Salvation Army (ARSA) are engaged in
ongoing clashes near Mee Taik village in
northern Maungdaw Township, Arakan State.
The fighting began between February 14-18
when ARSA insurgents entered the area.
The AA is conducting clearance
operations at border posts, with
three support vehicles deployed.
While gunfire has been reported
daily, there are no confirmed
reports of casualties or arrests."
"Myanmar
The military junta conducted airstrikes
in two locations: southern Nawngkhio
Township on Tuesday morning and the
former TNLA (Ta'ang National Liberation
Army) war office headquarters near Namtu
and Kutkai townships on Monday night.
The attacks resulted in three
TNLA members being injured, but no
civilian casualties were reported.
The TNLA source noted that the targeted
area had been previously bombed
and that the recent strikes landed
in close proximity to villages."
"Nigeria
Acting on intelligence, Nigerian
troops in Zamfara State's Shinkafi
LGA conducted an ambush at a
bandits' crossing in Tunfa village.
The operation resulted in one terrorist
killed and the capture of a key
suspect who handled ransom payments
for the Sani Black terrorist group."
"Nigeria
Nigerian Army troops successfully
raided Iza forest, Bama LGA of
Borno State, on February 17, 2025.
The operation resulted in the
neutralization of 10 Boko Haram
fighters and the recovery of two AK-47
rifles with loaded magazines while the
remaining terrorists fled the area."
"Russia
A drone attack struck the Syzran
oil refinery in Russia's Samara
Oblast on February 19, 2025, causing
a fire and multiple explosions.
The local governor confirmed the
incident, reporting no casualties but
warning of possible future attacks."
"Sudan
The Sudanese army reported new
victories against the Rapid Support
Forces (RSF) in El-Fasher, North
Darfur, claiming 33 casualties and
destruction of military vehicles.
The army has been gaining significant
territory, now controlling
most of Khartoum State, while
the RSF maintains control over
four of Darfur's five states."
"Taiwan
The Taiwanese Ministry of National
Defense reported detecting 36 Chinese
military aircraft and seven naval vessels
near Taiwan during a 24-hour period.
Of these aircraft, 33 crossed the Taiwan
Strait median line and entered Taiwan's
air defense identification zone (ADIZ)
in various sectors: 4 fighters in the
north, 15 fighters crossing the median
line, 13 fighters in the southwest,
and one helicopter in the east.
In response, Taiwan deployed
combat aircraft, naval vessels, and
missile defense systems to monitor
the Chinese military activity."
"Ukraine
Russian forces conducted an
artillery attack on Huliaipole in
the Zaporizhzhia region, resulting
in the injury of a 63-year-old
man who sustained shrapnel wounds.
The attack also caused damage
to an ambulance in the city."
"Ukraine
On February 18, Russian forces
killed one civilian and wounded three
others in Ukraine's Donetsk region,
specifically in Kostiantynivka, according
to regional head Vadym Filashkin."
"Ukraine
A Russian airstrike on Kupiansk,
Kharkiv region, resulted in one
fatality and left another person
suffering from an acute stress reaction.
The attack damaged at least ten
private homes, according to Kharkiv
Military Regional Administration
Head Oleh Synehubov, who reported
the incident via Telegram."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces successfully
intercepted a major Russian drone
attack, shooting down 106 out of 167
Shahed-type attack UAVs and decoy
drones launched on February 18-19, 2025.
The attack came from multiple
Russian regions and included
two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic
missiles targeting the Sumy region.
The drones were intercepted across
14 Ukrainian regions, while 56
decoy drones were lost from tracking
without negative consequences.
The attack resulted in damage to
five regions, including Odesa,
where four people were injured."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched airstrikes on
residential areas of Kostiantynivka,
Donetsk region, on February 19.
The attacks occurred in two
waves, using six FAB-250 bombs.
At least one person was killed, and
seven others were wounded, with one
person possibly trapped under rubble.
The strikes damaged 38
buildings, along with power
lines, gas lines, and vehicles."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,300 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 340 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Russian strikes across the Kherson region
on February 18 hit over 30 settlements,
injuring seven people, including a child.
The attacks damaged multiple
buildings, including three
high-rises, eight private houses, a
warehouse, a garage, and vehicles.
Ukrainian forces later shot down two
Russian Shahed drones in the region."
"United States
On February 19, 2025, Air Force Global
Strike Command and Vandenberg Space
Force Base conducted a routine test
launch of an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM.
The 377th Test and Evaluation Group
oversaw the test, collecting performance
data to evaluate current systems
and validate future improvements.
Officials emphasized this was a
scheduled test, not a response to
world events, and part of maintaining
a credible nuclear deterrent."
"West Bank
Israeli security forces conducted an
operation in the Far'a Camp in the
northern West Bank, resulting in the
death of three Palestinian terror
operatives involved in arms smuggling.
Two additional suspects were arrested.
During a search of the area, authorities
recovered multiple weapons, including a
buried dismantled M16 rifle and a handgun
found on one of the deceased operatives."
Terrorism
"Afghanistan
A brief armed confrontation occurred
Wednesday near Kabul's Ministry of
Interior, which is under Taliban control.
While an unknown number of
casualties were reported,
specific details are unavailable.
Taliban forces responded by blocking
access roads to the ministry.
The Taliban has not issued any
official statement about the incident."
"Morocco
Moroccan authorities dismantled
an ISIS-linked terrorist cell
on Wednesday, arresting 12
suspects across multiple cities.
The operation, led by BCIJ and
DGST, uncovered explosive devices,
weapons, and attack plans.
The cell was directly connected to an
ISIS commander in the Sahel who provided
financial and logistical support.
Their planned attacks targeted
security personnel, economic
sites, and foreign interests and
included environmental terrorism.
The suspects had conducted
reconnaissance missions and received
ISIS approval for their plans."
"Pakistan
A tragic incident occurred in
Barkhan, Balochistan, on February 19,
2025, where armed assailants killed
seven passengers from Punjab after
stopping their bus at a checkpoint.
The attackers checked passengers' identity
cards before carrying out the executions.
Balochistan Chief Minister Mir Sarfraz
Bugti strongly condemned the attack
and ordered security forces (FC and
Levies) to pursue the terrorists."
"Somalia
Puntland forces captured ISIS members
in Bosaso for extortion and bombings.
The operation, supported by locals,
aims to dismantle ISIS and al-Shabaab.
Arrests include those who
fled the Calmiskaad mountains.
ISIS extorted locals, but payments have
stopped since the operation began."
"Somalia
Somali pirates have recently attacked
another Yemeni fishing boat (dhow)
off Eyl, Somalia, following a
similar incident 10 days earlier.
While piracy in the region peaked in
2011 with 237 attacks and $7 billion
in economic impact, it decreased
due to international naval patrols
and improved governance in Somalia.
However, pirate attacks have
recently increased, partly due
to regional instability caused by
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea related
to the Israel-Hamas conflict."
"Syria
The mayor of Al-Sheikh Saad Village,
located west of Daraa, was assassinated.
The official was fatally shot by two
assailants who were riding a motorbike
as he was leaving the local mosque."
Weapons
"Syria
Syrian security forces conducted arrests
in the Damascus countryside, targeting
groups accused of smuggling and selling
weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The operation resulted in the seizure
of arms and ammunition, with state
media SANA publishing a photo of
the confiscated weapons loaded on a
pickup truck in the Al-Qutayfah area."
Cyber
"Australia
Genea, a major Australian IVF provider,
has reported a cyberattack where attackers
accessed confidential data, including
sensitive medical and patient information.
The attack has disrupted services,
including taking the MyGenea
fertility tracking app offline.
While the full extent of the breach
remains unclear, the company is
investigating the incident and has
committed to notifying affected
individuals if their personal
information is compromised."
"India
Raymond Limited, an Indian textile and
apparel giant, disclosed a cybersecurity
breach on February 19, 2025, affecting
parts of its IT infrastructure.
While compromised systems were isolated,
the company confirmed that core business
operations, customer platforms, and its
1,300+ retail stores remain functional.
No details about threat actors or
attack types were revealed, but
forensic analysis is ongoing."
Civil Unrest
"India
The NIA arrested two civilian
contractors for leaking sensitive
information about INS Kadamba Naval
Base to a Pakistani operative.
Akshay Naik and Vethan Thandel
were allegedly honey-trapped by
a woman on Facebook posing as a
marine officer, who paid them â¹5,000
monthly to share classified details
and photographs of the naval base."
"United States
Anti-Israel protesters from Pal-Awda
demonstrated in Borough Park, Brooklyn,
an Orthodox Jewish neighborhood, targeting
an event selling Israeli real estate.
The protest led to violent clashes
between anti-Israel protesters,
pro-Israel counter-protesters,
and local Jewish residents.
One person was arrested after allegedly
assaulting a 61-year-old man."
Accidents
"Syria
A person lost their life in Atareb,
western Aleppo countryside, after
being struck by shrapnel from
a detonated legacy landmine."
"Turkey
Six migrants drowned, and 27 were
rescued off Turkey's western coast near
Ä°zmir when their boat began sinking.
The incident occurred in waters between
Turkey and the Greek island of Samos.
One of the rescued individuals was
detained on suspicion of human smuggling."
"United States
A Cessna 15OJ aircraft made an
emergency landing near Greenville,
approximately 7 miles south of
Greenville Mid-Delta Regional Airport.
All occupants survived without
injuries thanks to the skilled
handling of the flight crew.
The incident is under investigation by
the FAA and NTSB, and Mayor Errick D.
Simmons commended the pilots and
first responders for their effective
response to the situation."
"United States
Two planes collided at Marana Regional
Airport in southern Arizona on
Wednesday morning, killing two people.
Details are limited at this time.
The incident is under investigation by
both the Federal Aviation Administration
and National Transportation Safety Board."
Other Events
"Brazil
Brazil's Attorney General has formally
charged former president Jair Bolsonaro
and 33 others with five charges
related to an alleged coup attempt
following his 2022 election defeat.
The charges, filed at the Supreme
Court, are based on extensive evidence,
including manuscripts, digital
files, and messages that detail a
coordinated scheme to prevent President
Lula da Silva from taking office.
According to a federal police
investigation, Bolsonaro allegedly led
an ""armed criminal organization"" and"
"Israel
Five IDF reserve soldiers from the
""Force 100"" prison riot control
unit were indicted for severely
abusing a Palestinian security
prisoner at the Sde Teiman military
detention facility in July 2024.
The indictment details a 15-minute
assault where the soldiers beat,
kicked, and tasered the blindfolded
and shackled prisoner, with one soldier
stabbing the prisoner near his anus.
The victim suffered severe injuries,
including broken ribs, a punctured lung,
and rectal damage requiring surgery."
"South Korea
South Korean authorities are investigating
30 military personnel (17 generals and 13
field grade officers) for their alleged
involvement in President Yoon Suk Yeol's
failed martial law attempt on December 3.
The highest-ranking officer under
investigation is Army Chief of Staff Gen.
Park An-su, alongside
five three-star generals.
Some officers, including Gen.
Park, have already been indicted
for insurrection and abuse of power.
President Yoon himself has been
arrested, becoming the first
sitting president to face criminal
charges, and is currently suspended
from office following impeachment.
The Constitutional Court has six months to
decide on his removal or reinstatement."
"Thanks for joining us for the February
20, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
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