CropGPT - Sugar

The weekly report on the global Sugar market for week 35. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This week’s episode offers a comprehensive view of the shifting dynamics in the global sugar market.
  • In Brazil, adverse weather conditions have prompted a downward revision of sugar production forecasts by 3.1%, now expected at 44.5 million metric tons for the 2025-2026 season. In the Center-South region alone, output through July dropped by 7.8% year on year, totaling 19.3 million metric tons. In response, sugar mills are increasingly prioritizing sugar over ethanol production to maximize revenue amid lower cane yields.
  • Conversely, India is experiencing a robust upswing in sugar production, projected to rise by 25% to 35.3 million metric tons. Favorable monsoon conditions and expanded cane acreage are key contributors. This growth has encouraged India to pursue export approvals for up to 2 million metric tons, a move that could have notable implications for global sugar pricing as the government evaluates broader export allowances.
  • Thailand continues its recovery in the sugar sector, with production expected to increase by 2% to 10.3 million metric tons. This follows a 14% surge in the previous season. Thai sugar mills are strengthening their global export presence, potentially contributing to a softening of international sugar prices due to increased supply.
  • In Pakistan, domestic sugar shortages have led the government to seek substantial imports to stabilize prices. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan is currently soliciting bids for 100,000 metric tons of refined sugar as part of a broader effort to control surging retail costs.
  • Globally, the sugar market is sending mixed signals. While Kzarnikov forecasts a global surplus of 7.5 million metric tons, factors like reduced output in Brazil and significant import needs from countries such as Pakistan and China are driving short-term price increases. Overall, global sugar dynamics remain highly sensitive to regional production fluctuations and the import strategies of major consumer nations.

What is CropGPT - Sugar?

Sugar news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global sugar market for 08/31/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. In Brazil, the sugar industry faces notable challenges due to adverse weather conditions. The national supply company, Conab, has revised its forecast for the twenty twenty five-twenty six sugar production down by 3.1%, bringing it to 44,500,000 metric tons. Prolonged drought and heat have adversely affected yields.

Speaker 1:

Production in the Center South region through July has seen a reduction of 7.8% year on year, totaling 19,300,000 metric tons. In an effort to offset these reduced cane yields, Brazilian sugar mills are opting to allocate more cane towards sugar rather than ethanol production, a strategic choice impacting market dynamics. Turning to India, the country is experiencing a significant increase in sugar production, attributed to favorable monsoon rains and expanded cane acreage. The production for the season is expected to rise by 25% to reach 35,300,000 metric tons. This substantial increase has prompted India to seek permission for sugar exports, with plans to request the export of 2,000,000 metric tons.

Speaker 1:

As domestic producers look toward the global market for additional revenue, the Indian government is considering allowing more sugar exports, a move that could potentially influence global sugar prices. In Thailand, the sugar industry is witnessing a steady recovery. The United States Department of Agriculture estimates a 2% increase in sugar production for the season, bringing it to 10,300,000 metric tons. This comes after a significant 14% rise in the previous season. Thai sugar mills are expected to strengthen their global export market presence, which could apply downward pressure on global sugar prices due to increased supply.

Speaker 1:

Pakistan's sugar market is under pressure from domestic supply shortages, pushing the government to seek imports on the global market. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan is actively pursuing bids for significant quantities of refined sugar to meet local demand and stabilize rising prices. Recent actions include a tender for 100,000 metric tons, part of a broader strategy aimed at curbing the escalating retail sugar prices. On the global front, sugar prices are experiencing mixed signals. A forecasted surplus of 7,500,000 metric tons for the season by Kzarnikov suggests potential downward pressure on prices.

Speaker 1:

However, challenges such as Brazil's reduced output and substantial import needs from countries like Pakistan and China are contributing to short term price increases. Overall, global market dynamics continue to be heavily influenced by production shifts in major producing nations and the significant import activities of large consumer countries. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the sugar market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.