AWM Insights Financial and Investment News

Join Chief Investment Officer Justin Dyer and Portfolio Manager Mena Hanna as they break down the art of building a resilient investment portfolio in this episode of AWM Insights. Shifting from high-risk “big shots” to the consistent power of singles and doubles, Justin and Mena unpack why steady performance in public markets forms the backbone of lasting wealth. Drawing lessons from Major League Baseball and real-world market data, they reveal why chasing the hottest stocks seldom pays off—and how strategic diversification sets you up to win over the long run. If you want actionable advice grounded in expertise and real-life analogy, this episode is for you.

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Chapters
(00:00) Shifting Focus to Singles and Doubles
(02:00) Consistency as Portfolio Backbone
(04:00) Lessons from Baseball and Market Probabilities
(06:00) Dispelling Myths About Big Winners
(08:00) Building a Diversified, Data-Driven Lineup
(11:00) Avoiding Weak Links Through Diversification
(12:00) Attention to Nuanced Details and Small Ball Strategies


Creators and Guests

Host
Justin Dyer
Chief Investment Officer and Chief Operating Officer at AWM Capital
Host
Mena Hanna
Senior Investment Analyst at AWM Capital

What is AWM Insights Financial and Investment News?

A bite sized discussion on timely financial news and investment topics, to help you maximize your net worth and wealth for the next generation with Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna of AWM Capital.

Justin Dyer: Hey everyone, welcome back
to another episode of a WM Insights.

I'm Justin Dyer, chief Investment
Officer here at a WM Capital, joined

by Mina Hana, portfolio manager,
uh, as usual my right hand man here.

Um, and we're continuing this series
around good decision making and,

and applying it, starting to apply
it to actual, tangible examples

of, um, of, of investing really.

And today we're gonna go from.

Taking big shots, which we talked about
last episode, to the importance of hitting

singles and doubles in your portfolio.

Arguably in a way, like even, you
know, more important, I, we need 'em

all truly, like, just like you need a
well, well, uh, well-built roster for

whatever sport you're playing, but.

The singles and doubles really being the
core, um, uh, of, of growth, um, within a

portfolio really breeds this importance,
this level of importance and significance,

um, that we're gonna get into today.

So, like I said, last episode, we talked
about taking these big shots, right?

What.

How do you think about them?

What's the purpose?

How, how can you do it with
a little bit more confidence?

All of those, um, uh, those
decisions that we, we run through,

uh, what the best asset class is.

You know, usually venture capital,
something in the private markets, vc

definitely being the best performing
asset class within the private markets.

Um.

Et cetera.

So hopefully that was
really helpful Today.

We're gonna switch gears, like I
said, when I set up the title here

and talk about hitting singles and
doubles with your, with your portfolio.

And usually those are done
in the public side of things.

In the public markets.

Um, so Mina, why don't you,
why don't you take it away?

Like what does it look like to get on
base consistently in your portfolio?

Mena Hanna: Yeah, to get on
base consistently means that.

In any given year, you're likely to
have, I would say, a good outcome.

There's at least a position in your
portfolio that's there that's going to

hit, you know, our targeted return of,
in the public markets anywhere between

nine and

10%.

Um, that is.

Consistency is just needed, and that
needs to act as the backbone of your

portfolio because in any given year,
obviously you might not have liquidity

in private markets, or you might, you
know, need a little bit more cash for

an unexpected expense or something
that you've been working towards.

And hitting singles and doubles
in your public market portfolio

actually gives you the ability to.

Meet those obligations, meet
those needs, and potentially

continue to make money in spite

Justin Dyer: them.

You, you used the term backbone.

I use the term core of your portfolio.

I think it's important to also,
excuse me, further define too,

that's the backbone and core of the
growth side of your portfolio, right?

The, there's the foundational
aspects, which we've talked about.

When you know, and use the analogy about
building your house, foundational aspects

of fixed income and things of that nature.

We are really very much, and, and
over the last couple episodes have

been talking more about the, the
growth side of the portfolio and

what you're saying is exactly right.

These, this idea of singles doubles
getting on base with high probability.

It's the core backbone
growth side of the portfolio.

Mena Hanna: Yeah.

That's on offense, not, not to
get too far ahead of ourselves.

We're gonna talk about defense
on the next episode, and.

How defense wins championships.

But yeah, from an offensive side, that's

100%

true.

And the analogy that I'll use, and
I geeked out on some MLB statistics

because that's what I typically do, but
uh, the Mariners in 2001 won 116 games.

It's the most games ever
won in an MLB season,

they

had something like 1600 hits.

So they, Yeah.

They averaged 10 hits a game.

Um, they only had 160 ish home runs, so.

One home run a game, but 10 hits a
game and they won the most games ever.

In an MLB season, it shows you other
teams have had the same number of hits.

That's obviously not the only reason,
but it shows you that consistency and

being able to at least put yourself
in a position to score helps you win

games and will also in, in the same
way, help you at least achieve a return

that aids your investment portfolio.

Justin Dyer: 100%.

I love, I love that stat game there.

Uh, and it, and it just,
yeah, the consistency, right?

The, the key theme with respect
to this conversation is higher,

higher probability than what we're
talking about taking shots, right?

You don't, you don't hit the
long bomb every time you get up.

No one does, even the,
even the big hitters.

Um, but we're really aiming for
that consistency, kind of the small

ball mentality, uh, of the game.

Mena Hanna: Yeah.

And when you actually look at
the statistics within public

markets, like public markets aren't
really the place where you do

want to take those massive shots.

Historically, if you're swinging for the
fences all the times, like the majority of

public market companies don't actually do
well and it's extremely hard to determine

who the next Nvidia or build a bear.

If you guys heard the last
podcast will actually be.

And who will return, you know,
that one, two, 3000% return in a

five, five year period of time.

Justin Dyer: And I, I think that
point in this present moment is, is

so good to bring up and revisit it.

We are in this time where I am sure
many of you listening have heard all

these statistics about the concentration
within the public markets, right.

The,

You know, pick your five to seven to
10 tech names and how much they're

really responsible for a bulk of
the growth that we're seeing in the

public markets, and that is true.

That's also hindsight being 2020.

We also know from history that
the likelihood that that group of

companies being the same in the, in
the being, in the same position they

are in today, whatever, three, five
years from today, is incredibly low.

That is just the dynamic nature
of markets, and so you can't.

Really rely on what's
happened in the past.

It's been a good, good run for a
small subset of companies, um, which

has brought the market up with it.

But we have to remind ourselves,
go to the data, understand, Hey,

you can't chase those things.

You, you need to understand and
play your lineup accordingly.

On a go forward basis.

Mena Hanna: Yeah, you need to
understand how the game is played.

We will add this visual because
I think it's super helpful, but.

From 2000, here are the top 10
companies in terms of market cap.

And then if you look at that same list
for companies in 2025, only one company

was able to survive and be in that
top 10 for a 25 year period of time.

That's Microsoft.

Every single other company
fell off Nokia is on that list.

You know,

a lot

Justin Dyer: knows who Nokia is, yeah.

You know, let us

Mena Hanna: know.

A lot of

Justin Dyer: I do 'cause I'm old, but

Mena Hanna: a lot of people were
hot on Nokia, they make, you know,

indestructible phones, but that did
not translate to market cap over time.

So if you were stock picking, if you were
looking at the biggest names in 2000,

you probably did extremely poorly over
the next 25 year period of time until

Justin Dyer: now.

Yeah.

So, uh.

I, I, I wanna bring it back to
this idea of making good decisions.

Um, I think we're touching on it in a way.

We often use the term data driven.

We're talking about a lot of data here.

One of the great benefits of, in, of
this side of the equation, the public

markets, is the amount of data both
that we have at our fingertips that's

also been studied by the academic world.

And, and we just, we.

History doesn't repeat
itself, but it does rhyme.

There's that great old adage, and so we
can use that data and apply that, that

framework to understand and make good
decisions like I just talked about.

Okay.

There's crazy concentration in very few
names within the public markets right now.

That's not going to last going forward.

I don't know over what time frame
frame will that change, but I'm pretty

confident in saying that's not gonna last.

And be the way it is over, you know,
again, three, five, maybe we have to

wait 10 years, but we know that, we
just know that from the data and so

we make decisions around that, right?

You want a diversified lineup.

We make decisions around that.

There's so many, um, data points
and ways we can look around.

Look at the public markets to build
a lineup of, of, or a portfolio

that is built to get on base
consistently with high probability

over long periods of time.

And to your point, you already brought it
up, Mina, but being a source of liquidity.

Should you need it.

Now we're gonna talk about defense,
like you said, next time we're building

portfolios, so you don't need to
tap into the public markets at, at

inopportune times, but it is a, a
good feature to have or a good feature

of public markets around liquidity.

Yeah.

Mena Hanna: And kind of piggybacking on
what you said, understanding the data,

understanding how the game is played and
how to actually play the game properly is

The most important thing you
can do each euro, I'll use

another Mariner example here.

He batted three 50 in that,
you know, 2001 season.

He wasn't going out there
and just trying to hit bombs.

Every at bat.

He hit, eight home runs, like that's it.

He knows that that was not his game
and that's not how he should play

his game to maximize the outcomes
and the opportunities for his team.

We understand the public markets.

We've seen the data.

The data tells you that if you're
each euro hit singles and doubles.

Don't try to hit a home run at every
single at bat you have, because you're

going to fail more likely than not.

And the purpose actually, and the
most utility and benefit that you can

get, just by playing the diversified
game, investing in a lot of companies,

and achieving a more consistent path.

To get on

Justin Dyer: base.

So question, to bring it a little
bit more tangibly, um, we've been

talking a lot about analogies here,
which I think are great, but what

else should we consider when we're,
when we're talking about building the

lineup or building the portfolio, and
specifically the public portfolio, right?

There's, there's this data that
we're using to make good decisions,

be disciplined, et cetera.

What, what else should we
consider when it comes to, to this

Mena Hanna: lineup?

Yeah.

And.

Justin Dyer: Uh,

Mena Hanna: I would say it goes back
to that concept of building a well

structured lineup and not having
any missing pieces or weak links.

Ideally, you want your public
market portfolio to be well

structured, all encompassing.

think about including also small
companies, international stocks, real

estate investment trusts, so that you
have a broad spectrum of actual assets in.

Your investment lineup and so that you
don't have, call it one form of kryptonite

that could lead to your portfolio
imploding in a given, in a given time.

Uh, the best example of actually
looking at that is think about

the two thousands again, where

you

had people just throwing money at.com

names, and uh, there was a
massive tech bubble where a

ton of wealth was concentrated.

Well.

you know,

The NASDAQ was down 75, 80% over
a period of time after that, and

there was a massive unwinding.

So you, you have to make sure that
your portfolio is diversified, can

handle different circumstances,
and can achieve a good outcome in

the light of any obstacle that it

Justin Dyer: might encounter.

Yeah, and I mentioned the term
small ball earlier, and it

is definitely a, a, a great.

Kind of frame of reference for this
conversation, but I would even say

like the small ball side I, I is
kind of the nuanced pieces that

you should be paying attention to.

Make sure you're diversified
globally, small caps.

Think about cost, the underlying
cost of the portfolio, right?

Is there effective implementation or
management of the, the overall strategy?

How should we think about taxes?

Like those little tiny things, the
small ball, uh, activities, if you

will really, really add up to, uh,
to, to, to outcomes over time, right?

Stacking the favor, stacking the deck
in your favor to hopefully win with

those 116 games like the 2001 Mariners.

Um, well, awesome.

Cool.

We will wrap there.

Uh, Mina, what's the
text number if anyone has

Mena Hanna: any questions?

Yeah,

6 2 6 8 6 2 0 3 5 5.

And if you do have any
baseball related questions also

Justin Dyer: I'm here for you.

There you go.

Uh.

Like I said, we'll wrap there.

Shoot us a text if you have any
questions, topics that are top of

mind that you want us to unpack here.

But until next time, own your wealth,
make an impact, and always be a pro.

Thanks for listening.

Okay.