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Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[0:09] Today's report, the uncertainty bubble. We got tariffs. We got AI tail risk. We got a Bitcoin market structure update. Welcome to the report. Today is February 25th, 2026. A number of things to talk about. It is noisy out there. Late last week, the Supreme Court struck down the Trump tariffs, and then he disimposed more. Also, we're talking about markets wobbling at the face of AI. There's kind of an AI scare going on, but it's like a bullish scare. We got entire sectors getting obliterated anytime Anthropic drops a new model. And there was the Citrini article that made the rounds this week, reverberated really around the investing community. It was entitled, A Global Super Intelligence Crisis, and they were painting a world in 2028. What is that about? And then also some volatility in crypto markets, of course. Bitcoin was down 6% yesterday. Today, it's up 6%. This news cycle is frankly quite exhausting for me. I know it is for you. We got to figure out what all this means for investors. Mike, as we get into today's episode, I just want to congratulate you, man. I read this this morning and this was the highest signal article writing analysis piece in investing that I read all week amidst a whirl of chaos and noise. This was incredibly high signal. So well done.
Michael Nadeau:
[1:30] Appreciate that. Yeah, that means a lot coming from you, Ryan. I appreciate it. A lot going on, you know, just a lot going on in the markets. I think it's a good time to sort of step back and just kind of like think through what are the impacts of all these news stories that we're seeing. We can go through some Bitcoin on-chain data today, hopefully put people a little
Michael Nadeau:
[1:47] bit at ease with the news cycle out there.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[1:50] Yeah, I feel like this summed up maybe a uniting theme of all the chaos and noise out there. And of course, listeners, stick around to the end. We dive into not only a Bitcoin market structure update that Mike had, as well as some of your next moves.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[2:03] And what you're waiting to see in the market. So before we get there, got to shout out our friends and sponsors over at Galaxy. This one's for the institutions listening. So that deep capital, whether you're looking at the future of finance or the backbone of the next industrial revolution, Galaxy is the name you guys need to know. They've established themselves as a global leader, not just in digital assets, but also in this whole data center infrastructure thing around AI. They're doing both crypto and AI. It's a dual play here. What's unique about Galaxy how they're bridging these two worlds. So in addition to everything you know in crypto, where they have trading, custody, tokenization, they also have a Helios site. This is a staggering 1.6 gigawatts of approved power powering the AI revolution. You know them. They are GLXY. It's a publicly traded company. And if you want to see how they are helping institutions invest, build, and transform both AI and crypto, go check them out. There's a link in the show notes, bankless.cc.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[3:03] Galaxy. Since I mentioned crypto prices, we are up right now 5%. We were down. I was thinking about you this week. I was wondering if I was going to get an alert from TDR Pro saying, buy, buy, buy, because Bitcoin dropped to 62K just yesterday. Now it's 67K at the time of recording. Actually, almost 68. So very volatile. I know you, Mike, are still positioning 70% cash, being patient here, waiting for that fat pitch. Again, we'll talk more about that. But before we do, let's get to some of the craziness that happened late last week The Supreme Court slapped down the Trump tariffs. At least, I think that's what happened. Tell us about this.
Michael Nadeau:
[3:46] Yeah, you know, this is something that we're keeping an eye on. The reason this is important is it comes back to, you know, capital flows and liquidity out there. We've written quite extensively on this topic. And the view has been that, you know, these tariffs are essentially pulling capital out of the private sector. And since Trump came into office, that's to the tune of about $300 billion. So this is material. It's close to 1% of GDP or so. And so when we see the Supreme Court potentially knocking these down or eliminating the tariffs that were related to Trump's executive policies, definitely want to pay attention to this. So as far as like kind of breaking down what happened last week, the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs that Trump implemented with executive authority. Basically, they said that you can't do that. That has to go through Congress. And so those tariffs are deemed illegal. That is about 60, roughly 60 percent, according to Cato Institute, of the total tariffs that are in play currently. So that is material, right? If that's 60%, that could be somewhere between $130, $160 billion of refunds that would potentially be going out back into the economy. And that's stimulus, essentially. Refunds?
Ryan Sean Adams:
[5:10] Who would they refund?
Michael Nadeau:
[5:12] That's, well, this is the challenge. And you could get a headache if you start to actually try to think about, you know, who gets the refund because, and this is something that the Supreme Court didn't even address. And when they gave their ruling, basically pushing it down, I think, to the lower courts. And they did mention, actually, I think in the ruling that this is going to be like a total mess trying to figure this out. And if you think about it, like, I don't know how you could figure out who actually gets that refund, because I don't think we even fully know who's actually paying the tariff. If you think about, you know, the importers are really the ones like actually paying the tariff. But did they raise their prices to do so? And are they the ones that are going to get the refunds because they paid the tariff? Does the consumer get a refund somehow? I have no idea. But this is a big deal. I think these refunds, it's going to take a long time and it's going to be messy. And so the way I'm thinking about this is just observing sort of the Trump administration's reaction to this ruling. And it seemed like they had a plan and they were ready for this and probably expected the Supreme Court to rule against them. And what they immediately did was implement a global 10% tariff using something called Section 122.
Michael Nadeau:
[6:35] That basically has a 150-day duration cap to it. So what's interesting here is they've essentially backfilled, I think, most of the tariffs that were away. They've got about 150-day runway for those tariffs. Trump later came out and said, we're going up to 15% on that global tariff. And then I think yesterday, what actually got implemented was 10%. So this is moving all over the place. And he can still maybe go back up. I think they might go back up to 15%. So you backfilled most of it with these Section 122. That has a 150-day duration on it. And then I think really what they're trying to do here is go to these Section 301 tariffs. These are tariffs that are already in play. These are the ones we've mostly used against China. And Trump does not need to go through Congress for that type of tariff. But it does require a process. So there's no congressional oversight here, but you do have to do an investigation. There needs to be public commentary. And so this could take a little bit of time. And it seems like they're just going to go through that process while these 122 tariffs are in play for 150 days.
Michael Nadeau:
[7:48] Hopefully implement the 301 tariffs as the 122 rolls off. And at the end of the day, you don't have a huge, you know, material change in this tariff policy. That's sort of my conclusion here. And again, we're paying attention to this because it impacts, you know, capital flows. This is impacting the budget deficit, right? Like this is allowing for some of these other policies that Trump has on tax to not really upset the fiscal situation and not upset the bond market. And so if it looks like, oh, all this money is going to flow back out to the
Michael Nadeau:
[8:22] economy and he can't do tariffs, now the fiscal situation looks pretty unstable. And then how does the bond market react to that? So that's sort of like the framing of how I think about this. And the takeaway, you know, after all of this is sort of, you know, no real material change for now, in my opinion.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[8:41] Okay, so some people thought that the Supreme Court decision would be a pretty large change in policy. But the reality on the ground is, while the Supreme Court decision has prevented a certain type of tariff that Trump was imposing, the law provides other types of loopholes where he can still impose tariffs. And in order to get those other loopholes closed, they would also have to go to through the court system, through secure Supreme Court cases. And that takes many months, if not years in the process. So basically, Trump is still getting his way. And he's saying, well, if you close this door, I'll go walk over to the next door and I'll open that one and do it that way instead. And he's got like enough of these that he's going to get his way on tariffs.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[9:31] No matter what. And he does seem determined to do tariffs. And there's lots of maybe reasons we could hypothesize for why tariffs. Maybe he wants to implement tariffs. He didn't like what the Supreme Court said. So he's just like, well, if you're going to tell me no, I'm going to do it anyway. Maybe that's his whole contrarian personality. Maybe it's ideology. And there's evidence for that, too. He's just against free trade. He's a real estate guy. Maybe he sort of sees the world as sort of zero sum. He's not a big fan of the free trade idea. Or maybe he's looking for more power and control over the process, more levers he can use to squeeze geopolitics. Whatever the reason, maybe it doesn't matter at this point. He's getting it. He's keeping the tariffs in place and they're going to remain in place. Can you zoom in a bit more on the bond market? So it's interesting, we were talking about bonds in the last report in depth. So what happened to the bond market? What did you see when the Supreme Court slapped down this decision? What were the changes there? And what is the bond market telling us about this?
Michael Nadeau:
[10:33] Yeah, when that announcement initially came out, the 10-year was rising, actually, and it had been in decline. We talked about this last week, how there's kind of like new demand in the market for long, long bonds. And so definitely paying attention to this. And it rose, which makes sense to me that it would go up because the bond market's starting to look at the fiscal situation and say, wait a minute, you guys are doing all these tax cuts, right? And then, wait a minute, if all this tariff capital is going to actually not be coming in and some of it's actually going to be going back out of stimulus, you know, what does that mean for inflation?
Ryan Sean Adams:
[11:09] How are you going to pay for your debt? And we're the bondholders. We own the debt. And if you don't have revenue coming in by way of tariff, then how are you going to pay your bills?
Michael Nadeau:
[11:17] Exactly. Just like, you know, an investor would think about, you know, investing in a company that can't service its debts. It's the same calculus. And so this is what I'm paying attention to. Once, you know, Trump came out and did his press conference, you know, right after that and announced the 10%, then we saw the bond market, you know, come down again. And we've seen it come down further since the 10 years at its lowest level since December of 2025 right now. So to me, that's the key piece here. And I think the Trump administration understands this. I think this is something, this is all part of the Treasury Besson's plan here in terms of keeping the bond market at bay while they implement these policies around trade. And I think the tariffs are mostly, you know, allowing for some revenue to come in. And then it's also like just a negotiating tool. Like you said, it's another lever that Trump's using in all of these trade negotiations. And even with some of the wars, I think, that are playing out.
Michael Nadeau:
[12:17] So it's a lever. It's a tool they don't want to give up. And it's very central to just the whole plan here with trade and fiscal policy.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[12:27] So all this to say, the tariff news last week did not change your view one iota. You think this is going to stay the course. Let's talk about the other thing that maybe this changed your view. So there's a lot of AI news last week. In particular, maybe let's concentrate on a narrative propagating around investor circles, I would say. And this was all over traditional finance, you know, Financial Times and Wall Street Journal. It was everywhere. And this was a piece put together by a research firm, kind of an independent research firm, Substack Driven, called Citrini. I'd never heard of them before this, but I did voraciously read the report that they came out with. It's called the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis. And I call it a report. It's not really a report. It's sort of a scenario. It's a hypothetical. It's a projection to the year 2028. and it went viral and it paints a pretty grim view of 2028. It's basically the view that AI has become so successful at automating things, in particular automating white collar, intelligent style work,
Ryan Sean Adams:
[13:36] That this actually swings us into bearish territory because now we have hyper productivity. AI has taken all of the jobs. Now we don't have any human beings who are able to consume services. And so we get this sort of hollow GDP, almost a ghost GDP of productivity gains on paper, but the real economy is dying. And that's why they paint the vision of AI is successful beyond our wildest dreams from a productivity perspective. But in 2028, it causes a real crisis, almost like a great financial crisis, 2008 style crisis. So yeah, what was your takeaway from this report and the fallout from it.
Michael Nadeau:
[14:19] Yeah, it's this this was all over the airwaves. My takeaway here is and I kind of wrote a little bit about this in the report that, you know, if you're into crypto and you're you're you know, you're on X, you know, you're working on frontier technology. Like you probably are aware of this and you've probably thought a little bit a little bit about this. And it's almost a nice reminder when something like a story like this drops to realize like most people actually maybe are just becoming aware of sort of some of these risks in the market. And so my my takeaway on this was not like, oh, wow, like this is I didn't hadn't thought about this. This is really telling me what you know, what the future could hold. It's more that it's just it's becoming part of like the collective consciousness. And when you see it blowing up on Wall Street, it's kind of a sign that like maybe Wall Street is not, you know, I'm sort of wondering how many, you know, portfolio managers on Wall Street have analysts that had gone through that type of exercise already to sort of model that because, you know, I don't I don't think really subscribe to what Cetrini is sort of modeling out there. But you should have that. You should be modeling that out. That should be one of your scenarios if you're an investor.
Michael Nadeau:
[15:32] And it seems like maybe it's just starting to come into everybody's framework. So that was kind of my takeaway here. And, you know, it's to me like we can get to this maybe when we start to get into Bitcoin. But I think this is creating a pretty interesting setup for Bitcoin, which we can talk about in a little bit. But, yeah, that's my takeaway is just observe the reaction to it. Maybe not so much the content of the piece, but observe the reaction to this and how that is starting to impact investor psychology, especially at a time when we think liquidity conditions are sort of rolling over, drying up a little bit out there.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[16:11] Yeah, the reaction to it was fascinating. And I should say that the narrative was obviously a doomer in its implications, right? It was 2028 was a crisis year.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[16:22] And that's interesting. There's a paradox here, too, that I want to talk about, but it was creating this consensus narrative that a lot of people sort of accepted, yeah, this could be a possibility here. And the consensus of AI becoming increasingly bearish, right, like the idea that the data center build out is a bubble. Maybe it's reminiscent of the telecom overbuild in the 1990s, that the hyperscalers won't be able to generate sufficient ROI to justify their massive valuations. You've got open source models in China. The weird paradox I found about this article was, on the one hand, you have AI fears saying, well, AI is going to wreck the economy because it's all a bubble. On the other hand, here's this article saying, well, AI. You know, it's a bubble that's so successful and so transformative that it actually like steals everyone's jobs and it's so bullish that it turns bearish. And the underlying theme to me felt like it was fear. And the fact that this narrative spread like wildfire, I do think you're right. It does signify that there's something in the air about like fear. Maybe, I mean, it goes to the title of the report today, which is the uncertainty bubble. There's some structural uncertainty out there, isn't there?
Michael Nadeau:
[17:46] Yeah, I think so. And you're right. It's interesting to me that there's sort of like two scenarios here. And markets are always trying to, you know, price potential outcomes, but also like trying to, price, the distribution of these outcomes. And what's interesting here is like, there's kind of like two outcomes. One, AI is very successful. One is maybe AI is out over its skis and it's, it's sort of a bubble. The infrastructure build out is a bubble right now. And both of these scenarios are leading people to, to sort of bearish outcomes, which, which that both, that cannot be true, right? If AI. So I think, you know, the takeaway for me is just that people don't like AI. I mean, I'm seeing this. People don't like it. I'm seeing this, you know.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[18:37] They don't like it. And why don't they like it? It's because of the uncertainty thing, isn't it?
Michael Nadeau:
[18:41] It's uncertainty. People don't like change. I mean, I'm observing this when just with friends and stuff that work in corporate and stuff. And it's almost like you're not allowed to talk about AI. Like that's how bad it is. And so it's because people don't like change and they sort of feel there's like this elephant in the room, I think. and it's sort of, it just feels scary. Change feels scary to people. And I always just come back to like this, there's never been, and throughout history, there's never been a case where we've introduced a new technology that creates efficiency, that creates productivity.
Michael Nadeau:
[19:14] That yes, maybe moves some jobs around. Maybe we eliminate some maybe not so productive jobs and we create new ones. But if you're betting on like this sort of linear model here, And it's very easy for people to attach themselves to this kind of linear idea of like, oh, if AI is really successful, that's interesting because you need less labor. And if you need less labor, then less people are getting paid. If less people are getting paid, they don't have money to buy the products. And then those companies start to lose revenue. So then they adopt more AI. And you can sort of, it's easy to sort of play that out. With linear thinking, but that's not how technology works. How it works is you create efficiency, you create productivity, things move around, you create other jobs, you're probably going to see an explosion of entrepreneurial talent that comes out because of all these tools. So I don't subscribe to this at all. It's almost like you're betting against human ingenuity, human creativity, the desire for people to be productive and work, and I would never bet against that. And so I don't subscribe to this. Yet, you have to also sort of just look at how people are reacting to it in the economy. And that's sort of my take. And like the narratives, they matter when,
Michael Nadeau:
[20:27] if liquidity is sort of rolling over. And that's kind of the key thing.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[20:31] This is the signal and why this report today spoke so much to me and was just like, you know, cutting through all the noise because the signal is as the market wrestles with these things, the signal is uncertainty. Okay. That's the signal. That's what you can anticipate in the markets no matter what happens. I want to talk about the market wrestling a little bit more on this AI question because there was this tweet that I saw that shows a chart. And this is a chart of each dot is 3.2 million people. And this is looking at usage of AI. So out of 8.1 billion people represented by all of these squares on the chart, 84% have never used AI,
Ryan Sean Adams:
[21:12] 16% are just free AI chatbot users, they use chat GPT free, let's say, 0.3%, that's 15 to 25 million people, pay $20 a month for premium and only 0.04% are actually using AI as an agent for coding, okay? And the poster says, the person who's posting says, we are so early. In other words, this is the most bullish thing, this Twitter can come with. It's to signify that we're early. I saw other people retweet the same graph and chart and say, this is so bearish AI. Look, no one's using the thing yet, right? No one's actually paying for it. It's not creating economic value at all. And so this is the market wrestling with itself. You can look at this data and you can either be bullish about it or you can be bearish about it. And depends on your perspective. But certainly, there is uncertainty.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[22:08] Another take I was listening to this week is Raoul Paul, so macro investor, and he's still very bullish equity. So he takes the opposite take that you have, Mike, which is you're sort of looking at liquidity rotation and maybe more the Michael Howell school of thought where you're bearish equities at this point.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[22:32] But there's this argument. The market is wrestling with AI and everything that's happening. And whether the question is whether this is more like 1996 or whether this is more like 1999, right, in the dot-com boom. And Raul Paul thinks it's more like 1996 and there's much more ahead. Whereas like people like you and Michael Howell are saying, no, this is looking like 1999 and look at global liquidity turnover and you'll see that we're sort of much closer toward the end of the AI equities boom than we are at the beginning. The market's just trying to figure this out and price this all in. But what we get here at the end of the day is uncertainty. You put the VIX in the report today. What is the VIX showing us?
Michael Nadeau:
[23:21] This is actually the BVIX, which is like... Oh, this is not the VIX? Well, it's like a derivative of the VIX. It's actually measuring the volatility of the VIX itself. Okay. And so it's kind of like a derivative, but you can think of it as the VIX. And like, yeah, it's just, this is kind of how I'm trying to frame this current environment. And like, it is very fascinating to me that you have all these smart people, looking at the same things and coming up with, you know, different conclusions and.
Michael Nadeau:
[23:49] That, you know, says a lot. And it tells you, you know, it's interesting to observe the actual what we're seeing in the market with all these rotations and all these different views being expressed in the markets. It's just showing it's a very interesting time as an investor. And I think when you zoom out, like, to me, the thing that I'm kind of anchoring to, if I know all this uncertainty and it's just like really wide range of views is out there, you know, it's an environment where you would expect volatility to start to tick up. We're seeing that with the VIX. You can see, you know, in this red box we have here, like, it looks like we're just like starting to potentially, you know, develop a more structural, you know, volatility in the market. And so, you know, that's interesting, you know, again, at a time when we think liquidity conditions are rolling over. And, you know, crypto investors will really understand like this framing around like right now, AI is just kind of all in our heads, right? We see this with crypto assets that do really well. There's a story behind it, but it's really just in everybody's head. And there's not really fundamentals. It's sort of just a vision, a narrative. And you can see how this could start to seep in and it's starting to seep into the AI narrative out there. and, you know, perception becomes reality when prices move against you. And so definitely just something to pay attention to.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[25:14] Yeah. And so if you're right about this, that we have structural uncertainty right now and structural implying that it's not just like short bouts of uncertainty, that we're going to get sustained uncertainty. And sometimes that will spike up and down. The question is, how do you position your portfolio for uncertainty? And your answer is the way you're positioning right now, which is cash. You say that it's like maybe Warren Buffett's $380 billion cash position has a lower opportunity cost than the market appreciates. And the reason... It's a lower opportunity cost would be because with cash, you can hedge yourself against all of this uncertainty. And you could figure out where the chips are actually going when the dust starts to settle, and then you can deploy your cash against the bets. That was the key insight. If you want an uncertainty structural advantage in your portfolio,
Ryan Sean Adams:
[26:09] then a higher cash position, maybe a bond position, higher cash position makes sense. Let's bring this to crypto. And to Bitcoin market structure update. Are we seeing any signs of Bitcoin accumulation? I know that's what you've been looking for. Have we seen it yet?
Michael Nadeau:
[26:28] Not quite. So this is really kind of where I'm shifting the focus right now. Bitcoin is trading, you know, it's kind of at the top of kind of our fair value range. And what we're looking for is to see signs that sellers are being exhausted out there. We're starting to see some signs of that. And then we're looking to see signs of accumulation, you know, on the other side of that. That's something we typically will see, you know, at a bottom. And when you're looking at that chart, the dark is deeper accumulation and those lighter colors are weaker accumulation. So you can see it's kind of interesting that there were more people excited to buy Bitcoin at like 87 to 90K there when we had that initial drop than we're seeing right now. And that's pretty typical, actually, of these bear markets. And so we're seeing some signs that sellers are maybe dwindling down a little bit, but I'm not seeing a convicted move to establish a real macro bottom just yet. And we can see that this is the long-term holders, so net position change for long-term holders. And somewhat surprising, actually, to me that we aren't seeing that line shift into green. So long-term holders are still, you know, their positions are still coming down, even at these levels. So that's sort of interesting.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[27:56] So that means they're still selling? Long-term holders are still selling? They might be more exhausted, but they're still not fully exhausted with the selling, and you're still not seeing signs of early accumulation?
Michael Nadeau:
[28:09] Not yet. Not yet. I was seeing some signs of it, but not like something that's giving me conviction that we're at like a macro cycle, you know, low just yet. This is more market structure. So again, we've talked about this in prior episodes, just the reason I want to understand just kind of like the holder base at certain price levels is it gives me an idea of when price starts to move around, what are those key levels? And where, you know, is it likely, if you know that 45% of Bitcoin supply is held at prices above $66K, if we have a move up into the mid-70s or so, you know, it's the probabilities point towards like a lot of these people are probably going to try to get out of the market, especially if it's harder to see a bullish catalyst.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[28:57] Because that means 45% are underwater, essentially, above $66K Bitcoin. Or below $66,000, they're underwater.
Michael Nadeau:
[29:06] That's right. And we're monitoring this. So what's interesting, if you look at the above $70,000 line there, that's at 39%. So that's coming down. So we've been tracking this. It was at 42% a few weeks ago. So some of those people are selling. And what we expect to see is that the far right bar there, the 11%, that's between $40,000 and $66,000. okay, we expect to see that start to tick up, you know, as you start to establish the macro low. And that will, you know, help me kind of develop conviction that we're kind of hitting that macro low.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[29:40] This was interesting. You said if we focus exclusively on the long-term holder, that cohort, 50% of coins held are currently in profit. But at the bottom of the last bear market, that number dropped to 43%. So you're still looking for those numbers to drop a bit more before we have sort of a confirmed bottom.
Michael Nadeau:
[29:59] That's right. Yeah, getting close, getting close, but not quite there. This is the ETFs, net flows. This is a seven-day moving average of the net flows. And, you know, not a pretty picture there since, you know, mid-October or so. Just very, very few inflows. The outflows aren't like extreme, I would say. And they've come off the last few weeks, but we haven't really gotten to a place where there's kind of a steady bit of inflows from the ETF. So it's kind of mirroring what we're seeing in some of the more on-chain data.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[30:30] And how about miners? Is that a factor here in looking for kind of bottoms? Yeah, I'm paying attention to the miner.
Michael Nadeau:
[30:37] The miners come into play typically a little bit later in bear market cycles. And the reason for this is, and we're just starting to see the signs of this, as the Bitcoin price comes down, that puts pressure on miners that are maybe less efficient. Maybe they don't have super low energy costs or they don't have the most efficient mining ASIC equipment. And so when the price starts to come down, now all of a sudden they're mining at a loss. And so it doesn't make economic sense for them to keep their machines running. They shut off their machines, in some cases, sell some of their Bitcoin to cover costs and stay alive. The hash rate is down about 10%. It actually had a much deeper correction and then rebounded off of that. So it's down about 10% off the highs in October right now. And something we're paying attention to because...
Michael Nadeau:
[31:34] There typically is a bit of a minor capitulation and it's happened in the last two cycles. It happened like at the bottom. So, you know, we haven't seen this just yet. We are seeing a little bit of selling activity from miners, but we haven't seen like a capitulation move. And typically this happens later in a bear market where you sort of have a restructuring of the mining industry. Typically, the larger miners get larger. They acquire, you know, some of the smaller miners. So this is something I'm keeping an eye. It comes into play as the bear market
Michael Nadeau:
[32:08] sort of kind of progresses along a little bit.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[32:11] Got to wait for that minor capitulation then as well. So let's wrap this up with some closing thoughts. So you write this, the news cycle is exhausting right now. We have everything from war in the Middle East. Oh my God, we didn't even talk about that, Mike. War in the Middle East, war in Europe, potentially global trade wars, internal political conflict. And also, we have exciting technologies that are going to transform everything like AI. It's all happening at the end of Ray Dalio's long-term debt cycle. What did we do to deserve this? I guess this is a welcome to the fourth turning. So with this uncertainty bubble, the structural uncertainty, sounds like you're comfortable keeping the position as is right now. And what, are you still waiting for that fat pitch? What does the Bitcoin fat pitch look like now to you?
Michael Nadeau:
[32:57] Yeah. So, you know, haven't like changed like the price targets and things like that. We still think 65K is like the top of the fair value zone. I do think like that fair value zone is probably like. 50 to 65 K or so. And the 200 week moving average is 58 K. And it, it just feels to me like the 200 week moving average is somewhat of a magnet. Like the price feels like it wants to go there. And so that's kind of where I'm anchoring right now. We've, we, we're in a more bullish stance, um, than, than we've been, uh, since, you know, last October, September period. Um, but not ready to really kind of back the truck up just yet and kind of just waiting for, you know, typically it takes, you know, about a year for bear markets to play out. And I like to anchor to like, what has happened in the past, you know, should happen again. But the key thing is to be paying attention to everything that's happening in the market. And so my base case is like, okay, you know, if the probability would point towards like sort of October or so, or sometime later this year where you would, you know, establish that low.
Michael Nadeau:
[34:07] But the key thing, again, what's going on in the market? I don't see anything in the market that's pushing me off of that view right now. And so I I would have to see something that would, you know, bullish catalysts, changes in monetary policy, fiscal policy that would force me out of that view that this is going to take like roughly a year. And so that's that continues to be what we anchor to and just just trying to stay patient and observe the market and maybe step away from the screens a little bit with the news cycle.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[34:35] Oh, man, that's what you almost have to do if you want to stay patient, sustain this news cycle, step away from screens, stay optimistic, anchor to data. Also, dial into places where you get signal through the noise. I think one of those places for me, and I hope for you, listener, is the TDR podcast. If you are enjoying these podcasts, we do them every week. They come out on Wednesday. YouTube, hit subscribe. If you're listening on Spotify, please give us a five-star review. We've seen those pouring in lately, and it's incredibly useful to get this to the top of the charts, allow us to continue publishing these reports. And I will say, Mike, I'm still waiting for that fat pitch, that second fat pitch email from you. I'm a TDR pro subscriber. And every time I see Bitcoin dipping into the 60s, I'm like, okay, is it time yet? Is it time yet, Mike? so subscribers can enjoy some of those access benefits as well as access to the report that we reviewed today. Gotta let you know, of course, none of this has been financial advice. We're just investors on the journey alongside you. Until next time, stay curious. We'll see you next week.