A bite sized discussion on timely financial news and investment topics, to help you maximize your net worth and wealth for the next generation with Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna of AWM Capital.
Justin Dyer: Hey everyone.
Welcome back to another
episode of AWM Insights.
I'm your host, Justin Dyer, our Chief
Investment Officer here at a WM, joined
by Mina Hana, portfolio Manager, and
we're talking about taking the right shot.
How do you strategically
maximize your big plays?
Right.
These are.
These are the fun parts
of investing, really.
Right?
When do you get to go big?
Um, and so quick, taking a quick step
back, why are we even talking about this?
Well, we've redefined what is winning.
This is over the last couple episodes
talked about our definition of winning,
how to make good decisions to lead
to a higher likelihood of winning.
And then really, you know, bringing
it all together is how do you
make sure you're kind of the
day to day or all your actions.
Align with your situation
and targets to, to win.
How do you even know how
to act execute there?
So, uh, we're gonna start to, to bring
this to reality, uh, so to speak, and
that's what taking the right shot is.
Starting with the higher
growth type assets.
How and when should you
apply the framework to take
those big shots, you know?
All playbooks have a variety
of, of different plays.
Some plays are designed to get a yard.
We're using football terminology
here, a yard, 2, 5, 10.
Other plays are designed
to get, you know, 40, 50.
Right.
These big plays, they're
the type of things you can.
Implement when you need to.
Right?
Maybe it's a, Hey, you gotta score.
It's, there's 30 seconds left in the game.
You're down by a a touchdown.
You gotta do it right?
You gotta make that big play.
Other times it's, Hey, there's a penalty.
Someone's offside.
You have a free play.
Let's use it.
There are a multitude of ways and reasons
why you would actually use these type
of plays, but the short answer is in
your playbook, in your portfolio, you
need that type of exposure, right?
It gives you that growth.
It gives you those points on the board,
and we're gonna talk through how to
actually allocate two investments that.
That give us that, those, those
big returns, is it, you know,
just put all your money into
gold or, or the answer is no.
Right.
I'm, I'm jumping ahead, but Right.
That those are the, the compare
and contrasting points that Mina
Mina, you're gonna walk us through.
Take it away.
Mena Hanna: Yeah.
And really highlighting something that
you said, your playbook needs to have
a balance of these plays that get you,
you know, short, predictable yardage.
And these plays that get
you a lot of yards are put.
Points on the board right away.
Um, not having that hurts you in the
long term as a long-term investor.
As someone who's trying to grow
or maintain multi-generational
wealth, you need those big plays.
You need a balance of the solid plays
that you can depend on, and the nice
trick plays that everyone kind of.
Oohs and ahs about.
Um, and those together
work, work really well.
Now you don't want a playbook
with only trick plays because that
absolutely never, never works.
Uh, becomes
Justin Dyer: out real quick,
Mena Hanna: figure you
out real quick, right?
Figure you out.
Yeah.
Um, and you'll have some explaining
to do to your, uh, kids and grandkids.
But you need, you need a balance.
You need to.
Have the potency and, and really
operate with that max velocity
that we've, we've talked about.
And Eric's posted a great blog post
on that max velocity of getting
the big outcomes while also kind of
being reasonable and only sprinkling
those in when it makes sense.
And when you have either.
Excess assets that you're not using
in the immediate future or a long time
horizon where you can take this risk,
it's not really detrimental to you.
It's not gonna harm you in the short
Justin Dyer: term.
Yeah, it's, it is a great reminder, right?
What we're talking about today is,
is once a lot of these basics of
portfolio construction are taken
care of, go back to the conversation
we had around building your house.
You gotta have the foundation in place
before you, you add the, you know, the,
the pool house or whatever the analogy
is you want to use there, playing
the game before you're, you know,
pitching
as hard as you can before you're,
you're throwing downfield, right?
You need the basics.
In place
Mena Hanna: first.
Yeah.
But when life gives you that
opportunity, you definitely want to take
Justin Dyer: it.
100%.
Mena Hanna: And then when you're taking
the opportunity, I think what you should
reflect on is like, alright, you call
the right plague, you're going deep, but
you're also choosing the right receiver,
which you can think about the right asset
class to invest in who you're throwing
the ball to, and who you hope is going
to actually catch and come down to it.
And the analogy I'll use to, uh, make
fun of myself is if you have Zach Miller
who, uh, was just nominated to be in the
Hall of Fame, uh, big shout out to Zach.
Yeah, big shout out to Zach there.
If you have him as an option, or you
have me who's five 10 on a good day,
you need to throw the ball to Zach.
Um, if you throw the ball to
me, you know, you should be, you
should be locked up for that.
But it's really picking
the right asset class.
And the analogy that I'm making here is.
Zach Miller is venture capital.
I am a non venture investment.
You can think
Justin Dyer: Let, let me add,
let me add, Zack Miller is well
structured venture capital.
Yeah,
you you can, you can
say what you are there.
I won't, I won't, I
won't paint that picture.
Mena Hanna: I'm I'm gold.
I'm private.
Real estate, a single stock that
your uncle talk talks to you
about, but yeah, like a well
structured venture portfolio is.
Ideally predictable and reliable.
Over time, it's going to generate the
highest returns that you can achieve.
You're taking on a lot of risk, but if
you systematically take that risk on and
build a portfolio of a thousand, 2000,
3000 early stage companies that are coming
from the best managers and the best hubs.
Think about Silicon Valley.
Some areas in New York, you are,
ideally, you give yourself the
highest possibility of success
that you can possibly have versus
investing in that single stock like.
The data's pretty clearly
there you are going to lose.
Like the ball's probably
not even gonna get there.
It's gonna get dropped.
Um, and you're gonna lose
the majority of the time.
Gold, same thing.
You know, this stretch of time has been
an anomaly, but we don't really have the
confidence of saying, yeah, gold is going
to outperform venture in small companies
that create value, help people out.
Create intense, just, I guess, shareholder
confidence versus a metal that we
don't have any predictability of if
people are gonna want it more in the
Justin Dyer: future.
Yeah, that's right.
I mean, it's an awesome framework to walk.
Walk us through at the end of the day.
We're really talking about probabilities
and stacking the odds in our favor.
When we talked about the whole
proper decision making framework,
you have to make quality decisions
in the face of uncertainty.
Making quality decisions in the face
of uncertainty is not investing in.
One single startup.
Right.
To your point, the vast
majority of those go under.
However, if you look at the asset
class overall, and this is venture
capital, early stage venture
capital, exactly what you're saying,
it's a phenomenal asset class.
But you have to get thoughtful
exposure and make the right decisions.
Again, going back to the decision making
framework, uh, to, to capture that,
you're not gonna increase your probability
of capturing that by investing in one
random startup that gets thrown your way
that, you know, everyone else passed on.
The last three or four months, right?
You, that's called, uh, adverse selection.
That's a whole nother podcast.
But you do not want to be
subject to adverse selection.
And so this is a high level example,
but super important where you, you, you
wanna make decision under uncertainty.
Venture capital has a ton of it, but
we can structure a portfolio in a
way that gets enough shots on goal.
Allocated in the right places, the right
hubs of innovation with the right managers
who know founders, what a good founder
is, versus just taking a, a random shot
on gold or crypto or, yeah, again, using,
you know, the stock your, your, your
uncle, your dear uncle pitched you right?
Those are not good decisions.
Uh, well structured venture portfolio
diversified with managers you trust
and have, uh, incredible networks.
That is a well structured.
Portfolio and likely to give you a higher
probability of going deep and, and, and
making that, making that pass, making
that reception, hopefully getting a
Mena Hanna: touchdown.
Yeah, and one thing that I'll
also add is kind of thinking
about salary cap structure.
A lot of the investments that we
actually see are, are solid from
the standpoint of like, alright,
it's a six four fast wide receiver.
That's there that, you know, you probably
have good confidence in performing, call
it well, or semi well, but it comes at
a cost that is sometimes unreasonable.
We see this all the time where we
have direct exposure to perplexity.
We see clients getting direct deals.
Related to perplexity where the
person offering them, you mentioned
adverse selection is asking for
crazy terms, whether it be on the
management fee side or the carry side.
So making sure that you are also making
or taking these shots and signing these
players to call it reasonable contracts.
And this one wide receiver isn't on
$50 million a year, where even if the
outcomes are good, you're hindered.
Maybe across the board, um, or in other
areas of your portfolio to actually
get that exposure is a very important
way of, of really looking at things and
making sure that, you know, you don't
just have the right players on the
field, but you have the right players
with the right economics holistically
to lead to solid results that actually
end up in your pocket and someone's not.
Taking home kind of your bag
Justin Dyer: as well.
Yeah.
Awesome.
Alright.
That, that was a great
conversation around this framework.
Again, this is part of the playbook.
It's not the entire playbook.
You need the big plays to drive long-term,
multi-generational growth, but you need to
do it in a really, really thoughtful way.
And you need a couple different
ways of, a few different ways of,
of running these plays, right?
It's not just all, all or nothing.
Um.
But hopefully the conversation
was super informative.
Today.
We're gonna continue to try to apply this
whole idea of making good decisions to
investing over the next couple episodes.
And, and then we will wrap and move on
to, uh, another topic and or series.
But, um, if you do have any
questions, shoot us a text,
Mena Hanna: 6 2 6 8 6 2 0 3
Justin Dyer: 5 And until next
time, own your wealth, make an
impact, and always be a pro.
Thanks for listening.