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The August 10, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive overview of agricultural markets, safety, politics, and weather. The program begins with an analysis by North Dakota State University agricultural economist Frayne Olson, who explains how investment funds shifting capital between stocks and energy indexes are driving current volatility in grain prices, while local basis levels work to regulate actual grain flow. Following a brief announcement regarding the inauguration of the University of Illinois' Alma Mater Plots, Purdue University's Bill Field discusses the ongoing dangers of grain bin entrapments, emphasizing that accident prevention and grain quality management are more critical than post-incident rescue training. The broadcast then covers the stalled Senate Farm Bill, noting that partisan disagreements over SNAP funding and election-year politics have delayed its passage. Finally, Everstream Analytics' Mark Russo delivers an agricultural weather update, highlighting persistent heat and humidity in the Midwest, localized dry pockets in the western Corn Belt, and active Pacific tropical cyclones temporarily impacting Chinese shipping ports.
02:00 Commodity Markets Discussion with Frayne Olson
12:25 Alma Mater Plots Inauguration Tuesday @ 7:45am
13:37 Grain Bin Deaths Persist
16:00 Election Politics Drags Down Farm Bill
18:14 Ag Weather with Mark Russo
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02:00 Commodity Markets Discussion with Frayne Olson
12:25 Alma Mater Plots Inauguration Tuesday @ 7:45am
13:37 Grain Bin Deaths Persist
16:00 Election Politics Drags Down Farm Bill
18:14 Ag Weather with Mark Russo
Creators and Guests
What is Closing Market Report?
Established 1985
The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.
website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek
The August 10, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive overview of agricultural markets, safety, politics, and weather. The program begins with an analysis by North Dakota State University agricultural economist Frayne Olson, who explains how investment funds shifting capital between stocks and energy indexes are driving current volatility in grain prices, while local basis levels work to regulate actual grain flow. Following a brief announcement regarding the inauguration of the University of Illinois' Alma Mater Plots, Purdue University's Bill Field discusses the ongoing dangers of grain bin entrapments, emphasizing that accident prevention and grain quality management are more critical than post-incident rescue training. The broadcast then covers the stalled Senate Farm Bill, noting that partisan disagreements over SNAP funding and election-year politics have delayed its passage. Finally, Everstream Analytics' Mark Russo delivers an agricultural weather update, highlighting persistent heat and humidity in the Midwest, localized dry pockets in the western Corn Belt, and active Pacific tropical cyclones temporarily impacting Chinese shipping ports.
02:00 Commodity Markets Discussion with Frayne Olson
12:25 Alma Mater Plots Inauguration Tuesday @ 7:45am
13:37 Grain Bin Deaths Persist
16:00 Election Politics Drags Down Farm Bill
18:14 Ag Weather with Mark Russo
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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the 10th day of August 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Frayne Olson from North Dakota State University. He’s an agricultural economist. We’ll hear about grain bin entrapments and how those have persisted through the years despite training of farm and rescue squads. And then we’ll turn our attention to the farm bill that’s at least no more for the moment until the Senate returns from its summer recess. And as we close out our time together, we’ll talk about the weather forecast, too. We’ll do that with Mark Russo of Everstream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media.
announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: September corn for the day, 438 and a quarter, three-quarters lower. December down a quarter at 461 and three-quarters, and the March at 477 and a quarter, a half a cent lower. November beans, $11.79 and a half, up three and a quarter. January, 1194 and three-quarters, three and a half cents higher. Bean meal down $3.40. Bean oil up a buck 29. Soft red winter wheat, a penny higher at 659 and a quarter. And the hard red—this is the December contract as well—finished at 731 and a quarter. It was three-quarters of a cent higher. Live cattle futures today a buck 62 and a half higher. Feeders down 65 cents. Lean hogs up $1.45. Crude oil, $4 higher, about $82.24. Gasoline on the wholesale price at $3.14 and six-tenths of a cent. That’s up 16 cents for the day. And diesel fuel at $4.19 and nine-tenths, 29 and a half cents higher for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average down 175 points at this hour.
02:00 Commodity Markets Discussion with Frayne Olson
Todd Gleason: Frayne Olson, Extension Agricultural Economist from North Dakota State University, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Frayne. Thank you for being with us today.
Frayne Olson: Always a pleasure to visit. I enjoy it.
Todd Gleason: Let’s talk about what’s been in the marketplace and what you think has been the driver. Many suspect it has been weather, though I’m not certain that’s the case. It feels much more like 2022 for me and the wars in the Black Sea and the Mideast. I wonder how that impacts the flow of money and consequently the price of corn, soybeans, wheat, and commodities in general.
Frayne Olson: I agree with you. We have to separate in our brains the fundamental supply and demand situation, which really impacts the general trends in the marketplace, versus a lot of the day-to-day or week-to-week volatility we get. My sense of what’s going on, looking at the numbers, is we see a fairly strong correlation or relationship between what’s happening in the energy markets and what’s happening in the grain markets, and there are fundamental reasons for that. We use a lot of our grain in the energy market, obviously from gasoline prices and ethanol prices connecting into corn prices. We get some of the same thing going on with the soybean oil complex because well over 50% of our soybean oil is now used for either biodiesel or renewable diesel. However, I can’t explain all of that volatility just because of this fundamental connection. In my view, a lot of it has to do with the investment community.
Let’s understand really quickly: if I’m managing someone’s investment portfolio, my training is in the financial markets—stocks and bonds—and I manage a nice portfolio from an investment perspective. A portion of that is usually commodities. If I start to see stock prices drop because of whatever is going on in the war or the general economy, I’m going to try and sell off some of those and then reinvest or rebalance my portfolio. Typically, when we see stocks drop, we start to see an increase in the energy complex. A lot of that is driven by oil. As a finance professional, not a commodities trader, I usually look to an index, like the Goldman Sachs index. I’m buying and selling this index because it’s a pre-packaged portfolio of commodities. Goldman Sachs has 50% to 60% of their index composed of energies: crude oil, gasoline, diesel fuel, natural gas, etc. But they also have a pre-blend; about 20% is grains, 15% to 20% is the meat complex, we have some softs like sugar, orange juice, and lumber. We also have some precious and industrial metals. So this is a really nice investment tool for me. If I’m buying into the commodity complex because energy prices are going up, I automatically purchase a portion of the grain and meat complex as well. As financial managers shift their money around, we get this extra demand base coming in from these index complexes. In my view, a lot of the volatility we have in day-to-day prices is driven by that money moving back and forth between the stock market and the energy market, and therefore through these indexes.
Todd Gleason: If this is true and prices have been driven mostly to the upside—some to the downside—because of this, you would think that basis would have been doing its job. I guess it should have widened out by some point.
Frayne Olson: To a degree, yes. It’s not like we get a one-for-one movement. Just because futures prices go up doesn’t mean that the basis will automatically adjust. Local basis levels typically don’t adjust; they let the futures market do the day-to-day fine-tuning. The local basis levels are really trying to regulate the flow of grain. It’s not until prices get high enough that all of a sudden we see a bunch of farmers selling that the basis levels may start to widen out. On the flip side, if prices drop dramatically and choke off farmer sales, I have to start increasing my basis to get local supplies back through the chain. So yes, we do see basis adjustment, but typically not on a day-to-day basis.
Todd Gleason: There would be two times in the year I would think this could be a problem because grain flow moves automatically, relatively speaking: harvest and February or March for corn when it comes out of the bin. Are there issues that producers should be aware of going into the harvest season in this case?
Frayne Olson: There are two pieces going on because right now, today, we’re dealing with old crop and new crop simultaneously. Up here in North Dakota, some guys are really trying to figure out what they need for bin space, how much corn or wheat to clean out to make room for this new crop harvest coming in. So we have the short-term supply issues to clean out the bins, and then coming into harvest, how big is this crop going to be and how much do we try and ship into the elevator system right at harvest versus bin and deliver later? We’ve got both of those things going on, and that’s obviously one of the reasons you see, at least up here in North Dakota, some pretty significant differences in basis levels for immediate delivery versus harvest delivery.
Todd Gleason: Is your basis wide for immediate delivery?
Frayne Olson: No, our basis is actually pretty narrow for immediate delivery. Especially on soybeans, we’ve got a couple of the crush plants that have a positive basis, which in our area is pretty much unheard of. When you look at harvest delivery basis, they’re much more normal. We’re looking at probably minus 70 or 80 basis for soybeans, and for corn, we’re looking at a minus 55 to 65 basis, which is pretty typical. We’re just starting our spring wheat harvest, so those harvest basis levels are pretty normal right now because we’re getting quite a bit of flow of wheat into the system.
Todd Gleason: If fundamentals don’t change—meaning we’re still in the midst of a war in Iran and Ukraine—does basis widen more dramatically this fall?
Frayne Olson: Not necessarily, because again, the futures market is trying to regulate the flow of grain over time at a national and international level. The basis level becomes much more localized, trying to influence across location and time. Up here in North Dakota, we’re going to have probably an okay corn crop, but it’s not going to be a bumper crop. Whereas in Central and Southern Illinois, from what I’m understanding, it’s looking like a fantastic corn crop. Obviously, the basis in your local areas is going to be very different than it is up here, especially if we have those ethanol crushers trying to ensure they have the supply chain they need.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much, I appreciate it. We’ll talk with you again next month.
Frayne Olson: Always a pleasure to visit. I enjoy the conversation, you always have some really good questions.
Todd Gleason: Thank you, Frayne. That’s Frayne Olson, Extension Agricultural Economist with North Dakota State University Extension.
12:25 Alma Mater Plots Inauguration Tuesday @ 7:45am
Todd Gleason: Speaking of Extension and some of the work that’s done on campuses like NDSU, right here tomorrow at the University of Illinois, you’re invited to join us for the inauguration of the Alma Mater Plots. This is on South First Street at the Research Farms, just south of the State Farm Center or Memorial Stadium. It kicks off at 7:45 a.m. with coffee and donuts. Adam Davis will be there; he is the head of Crop Sciences. Andrew Margenot will talk about the takeaways from the 150 years of the Morrow Plots, and then, of course, the expectations for the new Alma Mater Plots, where there will be nitrogen inhibitor studies and tile monitoring equipment. They’ll also have heirloom corn plots, tillage and surface runoff plots, cover crop and phosphorus accumulation trials, all at the Alma Mater Plots. You’re asked to come, there is a boxed lunch. You don’t have to pre-register; you can just show up at 7:45 a.m. That’s on South First Street at the Research Farms. Check it out tomorrow morning.
13:37 Grain Bin Deaths Persist
Todd Gleason: Let’s talk about grain bin safety now. A new report from Purdue University shows at least 48 grain entrapment cases were reported last year, including 22 deaths nationwide. While those numbers have improved from past years, researchers say the danger inside grain bins for farmers remains very real. Bill Field, a longtime farm safety expert from Purdue, says the numbers only tell part of the story.
Bill Field: There was a lot of effort invested into trying to reduce this problem from occurring, everything from improving grain quality so farmers don’t have to get in bins, to new grain bin safety standards, to new signage. I think it’s all having an impact, but every year we still have 20 or 30 of these incidents occurring, and about 60% of them die as a result of suffocation.
Todd Gleason: Field says tracking these incidents is challenging because there is no single national reporting system. Purdue, and for that matter here on the Urbana-Champaign campus, the folks at the University of Illinois, rely on media reports, word of mouth, and even obituaries to build databases. But beyond the numbers, he says communities need to have realistic conversations about what happens when someone becomes trapped. The fire department simply cannot react fast enough. To be clear, Field is not discounting the importance of rescue training. In fact, he helped develop the first commercial grain rescue tube and has trained thousands of emergency responders. But he says the industry may have focused too much on the rescue after an accident happens, rather than preventing the accident in the first place.
Bill Field: We have distributed thousands of grain rescue tubes all over the United States, including into counties where there are no grain bins.
Todd Gleason: Field says the most effective rescue is the one that never has to happen. That means keeping grain in good condition, avoiding entry into the bins whenever possible, and never going inside alone. He says rescue equipment and trained responders still play an important role, but prevention remains the best tool farmers have to save lives.
announce: You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Monday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason.
16:00 Election Politics Drags Down Farm Bill
Todd Gleason: There’s really just one ag news story of import for the day. Election year politics appear to have stalled the Senate Farm Bill. Republicans rejected Democratic amendments that would give states more time to reduce SNAP overpayments and avoid funding penalties. Senate Ag Committee Chairman John Boozman says that decision comes at a cost for farmers and states.
John Boozman: You can count on about three fingers people that are involved in trying to get additional time. It’s not going to happen.
Todd Gleason: Democrats argued, on the other hand, the SNAP issue is about more than program cost. It is about protecting a political alliance that has historically ensured the passage of Farm Bills. Illinois’ Dick Durbin, a Democrat, says that coalition needs to remain intact.
Dick Durbin: That winning coalition has paid off ever since. We need it again and it has to be part of this SNAP conversation. We want to support the Farm Bill, I certainly do, but I want to make sure that I’m fair to my state and fair to the people who are receiving SNAP benefits who are being disadvantaged.
Todd Gleason: Republicans, however, say Democrats are using the SNAP debate to delay action until after the election. Kansas Republican Jerry Moran says that perception is damaging trust on the committee.
Jerry Moran: The suggestion was, well, the Democrats aren’t going to let us pass a farm bill till after the election, they’re going to wait to see what the outcome of the election is. I think we need to reestablish the trust that this committee is about this committee’s work.
Todd Gleason: The committee voted 10 to 11 against advancing the bill. But the decision could be revisited in September if Republicans have all their members present. Even then, Democrats would still be needed to move the bill to the Senate floor. Boozman says the delay leaves farmers waiting on issues they have no control over.
John Boozman: Trying to hope that we give them some hope about an issue that they don’t have anything to do with, lousy record keeping at the state level. It’s not their fault.
Todd Gleason: Without a political solution, except for an election, the wait continues. And that means a modernized Farm Bill, including year-round E15, remains on hold.
18:14 Ag Weather with Mark Russo
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Mark Russo is here. He is with Everstream Analytics. Hi Mark, thanks for being with us today.
Mark Russo: Hello there, Todd. Thanks for having me as always.
Todd Gleason: Early this morning I decided to do a little work outside, and it was just awful. Just dog days, very humid and hot. I know the temperatures aren’t going terribly high, roughly speaking, but I feel like this is with us for a while. What do you see across the whole of the heart of the Corn Belt?
Mark Russo: It’s going to be a while before we see some cooler, less humid conditions. It’s really the humidity or those very high dew points which is likely what made you feel really hot here this morning. We’ve seen dew points climb into the 70s, even some low 80s in portions of the Corn Belt, which for any time of year is pretty much as bad as it gets. That’s going to stick around here for much of this week. Next week things look to ease a little bit, but still stay relatively warmer than normal, just not as hot and humid as what we’re seeing this week.
Todd Gleason: Can you tell me about some of the driest conditions in the Midwest, where those are? I’ve seen some really awful reports starting this week, particularly from parts of North Dakota, and I don’t know how widespread that might be.
Mark Russo: The driest pockets—and they really are pockets right now, they’re not large scale—in parts of North Dakota, like in around the Fargo area and southeast North Dakota in general, that’s one pocket. Another pocket is in around the Sioux Falls, Sioux City area there in the western part of the Corn Belt, including northwest Iowa. They have gotten some rains here over the past week, but looking back over the past 30 days or so, those are some of the driest areas, specifically in the largest corn-producing areas here in the Midwest.
Todd Gleason: And then if you come just a bit further to the east of there, for instance through a large part of Iowa into Minnesota, things change pretty dramatically very quickly and they’re really good?
Mark Russo: Yes, certainly here. The combination of rain activity combined with the temperatures, too, which even though for this week it’s hot and humid, we really have not gotten into any kind of pattern this summer that has featured sustained, really yield-threatening heat in any significant way. As a result of that, this combination of temperatures and rainfall provides very good soil moisture conditions for both corn and soybean development.
Todd Gleason: Anything that we should discuss today in the United States or around the planet that I haven’t asked you yet?
Mark Russo: A couple of other items of note. Number one, at least in terms of tropical risks as we head towards the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is the second half of August and September into early October. While there might be some development of tropical waves in the Atlantic, we’re not seeing anything that looks threatening onshore or impacting any land areas coming up. For the time being, there are still no significant tropical threats here. Related to that, while the Atlantic is still relatively quiet, all of the tropical action is in the Pacific. There are developing waves in the eastern Pacific, and then in the western Pacific, we’ve seen Tropical Cyclone Doksuri impact areas of southeast China over the weekend. More rice impacts here from the storm versus corn and soybeans, but likely some relatively small-scale issues there. And then the Port of Ningbo, which is China’s largest agriculture import port, was closed for a couple of days. That’s in the process of reopening. We’re not seeing any kind of long-term closures, but that is certainly something impacted from a logistical standpoint.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much, I really do appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You’re welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason: That’s Mark Russo. He is with Everstream Analytics, joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.