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Paul: I was fortunate enough to refinance
the residential real estate I own in 2022,
and I think I've got one mortgage at 2.3%
and another one at 2.7%.
If you have a 2.3%
mortgage, you've got to have a compelling
reason to move, to give up that 2.3%
mortgage and go borrow money at 6%.
Because if you bought a house that cost
the same as the one you sold, your payment
is gonna go up significantly just because
of the difference in interest rates.
So on one side, you've got new buyers that
are constrained, in terms of the cost and
the cost of money, and you've got sellers
that either bought or refinanced during
the post-COVID period where rates were
so ridiculously low that really aren't
motivated to give up those mortgages.
That's kind of got a Mexican
standoff in the market.
Welcome to the AAA storage podcast,
your integrated real estate and
development partner, exploring all
things, self storage investing to
bring you diversified success.
Let's dive in.
Brandon Giella: We're back today
talking about part two of our
three-part series on commercial
real estate in our sector breakdown.
So last episode, please go check that out
at our website aaastorageinvestments.com.
You can see all our podcast episodes
there, as well as additional
articles and guides and so on.
What we talked about was that we were
basically ranking lots of different
property types against a grid of different
asset classes, um, uh, sectors, factors,
and the way that we were trying to analyze
what makes a good real estate investment.
And so today's episode, we are gonna be
talking about industrial, specifically
small-bay industrial and self-storage.
And so we're gonna be looking at
this, uh, on cap rates, primary demand
drivers, liquidity and hold period,
risk factors associated with that kind
of investment, and investment-grade
characteristics on that asset.
then later, we've got a relative
sector performance and then
positioning observations that
Paul will walk us through.
So Paul, welcome back.
Paul: Yeah, always good
Brandon Giella: industrial
and small-bay industrial.
Tell us about that class as you see it
Paul: Yeah, and, and Brendan, as we get
started and dive into industrial and small
bay, I think, uh, th- this whole series
is really geared to try to connect the
dots so that people can better understand
how the different characteristics of
different sectors in the market, in
the commercial real estate market, um,
should impact their decision-making
in terms of what they invest in.
I think there's a lot of, a lot of
these factors people don't think
about, or they don't understand how a
particular factor in one sector of the
market looks totally different in a
different seg- segment of the market.
So, uh, that's really what we're going
for here, whether we get there or not.
It's a lot of information, and,
uh, and, and it's probably hard
to follow listening to a podcast.
So one of the things that we've done
is we've c- created a great guide, um,
that I think you just mentioned, but
it will be available in the show notes
and also available to download on our
website, aaastorageinvestments.com,
under the Insights tab.
And if this has been interesting at
all but maybe a little confusing, I
would strongly suggest you go download
the document we've created, 'cause
it lays it out in a grid form, and
I think it'll really help everything
come together and make sense if, uh,
if you, if you go grab that document.
And then maybe take a second listen to
the podcast, and the, the pieces will
come together a little bit better.
But we're gonna talk about, um,
industrial and in specific small-bay
industrial and then self-storage today.
And remember that we've covered,
um, seven sectors and five primary
characteristics of those sectors,
uh, in, in the first episode.
We're gonna do the same thing with
industrial, small-bay industrial,
and, uh, and self-storage.
So first up is the typical, sort of
the typical or current cap rate range.
The industrial product, the, the,
the logistical, um, industrial,
which is really big box, over 100,000
square feet, um, is traded in the 4.5
to 6 cap range.
The small-bay industrial product, really
depending on what market it's in, likely
trades a tick above that at about 5.5
to 6.5,
6.75,
probably 100 basis points higher.
Um, and it's primarily because in the big
box logistics industrial sector, you're
really dealing with, um, indust- uh,
institutional-grade credits as tenants.
And in the small bay space, you tend
to be more dealing with local or
regional businesses that don't have
the same national credit profile,
and that added perceived risk ticks
cap rates up just a little bit.
Remembering one of the things we talked
about in the first episode is that-
One component of cap rate
is the likelihood of the
continuance of the cash flow.
The higher the probability that
the cash flow will continue, i.e.,
a long-term lease from a triple A credit,
you know, institutional grade credit,
um, the more the cap rate will compress
because the, the, the, the risk is lower.
Um, and conversely, when you have, you
know, a different tenant profile with
a slightly less attractive, uh, credit
profile, then that risk, the, the, the
potential for disruption of the cash flow
stream is inherently slightly greater and
therefore cap rates expand a little bit.
Um, the, the primary demand drivers
in the general industrial space are
e-commerce, logistics, manufacturing,
reshoring, supply chain modernization.
Specifically in the small bay space,
it really is that e-commerce piece.
Um, and it, it's also business formation.
Uh, we talked about business formation as
one of the key drivers in self-storage.
Um, and it's also a, a real key driver
in the small bay 'cause small bay is
a place where you're gonna find a HVAC
contractor, a plumbing contractor, um, a,
uh, pest control business, a landscaping
business that's scaled to some degree.
Uh, a lot of those local and regional,
along with e-commerce and last mile
logistics companies, um, and as we've
said, uh, multiple times, we've even
found some very unique consumer uses.
We've got pickleball facilities, batting
cages, any number of, of consumer-facing
businesses which we really didn't expect.
Um, the, the next factor that we looked
at in each of these ca- in each of these
sectors in the real estate industry
is liquidity and typical hold period.
In the industrial space, highly liquid.
Uh, it's an institutional asset
class, and a five to 10-year hold is
sort of the range of what is common.
Small bay as a component of
industrial is still evolving.
I will tell you, uh, we'llâ¦
We, we got an u-upcoming episode, um-
Actually, it'll probably air before
this one now that I think about it,
but, uh, an episode where we sort of
do a midyear update, um, and we'll talk
about small bay and what's happening
with the institutional investor market.
It is evolving into a favored asset class.
Uh, but today, probably slightly less
liquid, uh, than the general industrial
category, which is widely accepted and
pursued by the institutional investors.
The biggest risk in the industrial,
um, category, this first one
absolutely only applies to the
big box logistical industrial real
estate, which is overbuilding.
That general industrial space over a
hundred thousand square feet saw a lot
of development in the two thousand uh,
twenty-one to two thousand twenty-four
timeframe, and like self-storage and like
multifamily, saw a downward trend, uh,
because of a little bit of oversupply.
That's been rapidly res-re-resolved
here as we've moved, you know,
through '25 and into '26.
Uh, but it is one of the biggest risks
in the general industrial category.
In small bay, it may be a risk
at some point in the future, but
small bay is the opposite of that.
It's really supply constrained with, uh,
with, with new product coming online.
Most of the existing small bay real
estate in America was built before two
thousand, eighty percent of it, in fact.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Oh well
Paul: and there's been very little new
supply built since two thousand and ten.
So the supply and demand dynamics
in the general industrial category
versus small bay are very different.
In fact, they're polar
opposites of each other.
Uh, another risk in the industrial
space is slowing trade and logistics
demand Um, and, and this is probably
an important one, the third one,
which is functional obsolescence.
You're seeing a lot of technology
move into the logistics space.
Um, I've got a good friend of mine
that manages a, a million square foot
warehouse facility that's essentially
run by robots and, um, and, and, uh, and
obviously a facility built in the 1970s
is gonna be very difficult to upgrade
to some of that modern technology.
So functional obsolescence
is another risk.
The, the, the things institutions
look for in the general industrial
category are more modern facilities
in infield logistics corridors
with strong transportation access.
Um, if you, if you look at the
development that's happened over the
last five years, man, it is all centered
around major interstate interchanges
and access to that interstate network
because the warehousing business is
really driven by the, the trucking
and logistics side of the equation.
So, um, but those are the, the five,
uh, characteristics of industrial.
Um, overall, industrial is a solid
category, and small bay as a subset
of that is probably one of, if
not the most attractive sectors
in all of commercial real estate
Brandon Giella: Mm.
I feel like if you ever have a demand
problem in a small bay, you could always
just turn it into a data center property.
You know, just start
loading in data centers and
Paul: Well, th- th- that's one of
Brandon Giella: roof
Paul: the things that, that's an
interesting dynamic, is one of the reasons
that small bay is so supply constrained.
National occupancy today in small-bay on
average is about 97%, and there, there are
markets in the US where it's north of 99%.
You can't find space to lease.
Um, but one of the reasons it's remained
supply constrained is that the traditional
industrial developers want to build
million square foot data centers.
Um, it's more efficient for them
than building a 100,000 square
foot small-bay business park in
five 20,000 square foot buildings.
Um, and, and so it has not
drawn a lot of attention.
I will tell you, again, we'll talk
about this in our mid-year update,
the reality is the small-bay
space is being discovered.
It's being discovered by the institutional
investors, which in turn is sort of
perking up the ears of people on the
development side of the equation.
Uh, they tend to not be traditional
industrial developers, but they
tend to be people like us who have
historically done self-storage or
another property type, who are beginning
to really look hard at small bay.
And I think the dynamics of small
bay will change over the next
five to eight years a little bit.
I think it'll be less supply constrained
and, and a little bit more, unfortunately,
a, a discovered sector of the real
estate business than it is today.
But, uh, anyway, um-
Brandon Giella: Okay.
Well, we'll talk about
some of that in the, uhâ¦
I know we had, we're talking about
relative, uh, performance and things
Paul: Yeah.
Brandon Giella: Uh, so we'll
get, we'll get to that.
Okay, give us a rundown on self-storage.
I know we've talked about this at
length in a lot of our podcasts, but
to, to frame it up in this kind of
grid so that we can understand how
it performs relative to the others
Paul: Yeah, and, uh, uh, absolutely.
And there, there are one or two
sectors, um, you know, weâ¦
Self-storage is now considered a major
sector in the real estate industry.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul: and, and that's why we included it.
There are a couple
sectors we didn't include.
Uh, manufactured housing
and mobile home parks are,
Brandon Giella: Hmm
Paul: sectors that have some popularity
and some real opportunity, but we just
didn't include them because they're
still more fringe, um, sectors of
the commercial real estate market.
Uh, but self-storage solidly sort of,
uh, has a permanent place now in, in, in
the major sectors within the industry.
Uh, cap rates today will
range between 5 and, and 7%.
Uh, we just sold a property at a 5.3%
cap rate
Brandon Giella: Sure.
Paul: Actually, I say
that, it's under contract.
It'll close in the next couple weeks.
But we've seen cap rates compress from
six, six and a quarter, uh, down into the
low five range, um, over the last year,
which is, you know, pretty substantial.
That, that range is really driven by
whether it's a Class A, B, or C facility.
A Class A facility would be something
like we build, which is an institutional
grade product, or excuse me, one of
the multi-story, all climate control
facilities that you see from the public
REITs and some of the larger players.
And those properties are the ones that
if they're in the right market and,
and occupancy and net operating income
and stability is, is there, you, you
can see sub five-and-a-half cap rates.
On the other end of the spectrum is the
thirty thousand square foot, uh, gravel
lot with a chain link fence around it
sitting next to somebody's house, and
those are the facilities that are trading
in the seven, seven and a quarter.
And, and then obviously
there's some in between that.
But, um, but that, that's sort
of today's cap rate range.
The primary demand drivers, and
we've done an entire podcast on this,
but our, our population mobility,
um, downsizing, life events, and,
and small business formations.
Those are the primary,
uh, uh, demand drivers.
And one component of mobility, uh,
is related to the housing market.
So in the self-storage industry right now,
we're seeing moderate growth and demand,
uh, and you will not see significant
growth and demand until the housing
market unlocks and people begin to move
more, 'cause sixty-eight percent of all
interstate moves require self-storage
on one end or the other, or both.
Um, and, uh, so those
are the demand drivers.
Uh, liquidity and hold period.
Institutional liquidity, uh, has
grown dramatically over the last
ten years and continues to grow.
Uh, and that liquidity drives a,
a, a holding period as short as
three years and up to seven years.
Uh, isâ¦
That sort of three to seven-year
range is, is fairly common.
And if you look across all the
industry types, um, I'm looking
back at my notes real quick.
Yeah, three years would be the
shortest hold time the data would
tell you for any of the sectors.
So the potential to, to, you know,
move a self-storage facility, uh, sell
it in, in a fairly short time period
is, is stronger in self-storage than
it is in any of the other sectors.
Biggest risk, like
multifamily, new supply.
Uh, we've seen that.
We've lived that since twenty
twenty-one through about twenty
twenty-four, when the market, uh, many
of the major markets got overbuilt.
Short-term lease volatility.
Um, you know, a self-storage
lease is basically a
month-to-month rental agreement.
Uh, it's not like our small-bay
product where we have a three to
five-year lease or retail where you
may have a ten or twenty-year lease
Um, I, I will say, however, that the
data also shows now that the average
stay for a customer in a self-storage
facility has actually gotten longer.
Brandon Giella: Oh
Paul: and, and the percentage of the US
population using self-storage has grown
from about 11% to a little bit over 13%.
So those are positive trends
in terms of volatility.
Uh, and then revenue sensitivity to local
competition is the third risk factor.
The biggest battle we face in the
self-storage market day-to-day
are large REIT-owned properties.
If they're within our local market,
we talked about hyper-local markets
a lot, we really look at a three to
five-mile trade area as what really
impacts a particular facility.
And if you get a large REIT-owned
facility within your hyper-local
market, their strategy is often to
cut rates, advertise rates to the
bone in order to attract occupancy.
Um, and, and that can really
put downward pressure on rates.
Um, the, the flip side of that is, uh,
unfortunately, and I don't wanna call
any names, but, um, but their, their
strategy is to get you in with a really
low rate and then rapidly raise it.
Some, some tenants have seen six or eight
rent crease, increases in the first 12
to 14 months they were in a facility.
Um, and we don't do that.
Um, some of the large players
do, and we're starting to see
some backlash from consumers.
You know, self-storage customers
are sticky customers, but if you
get r- if you, if you treat them
really unfairly, sooner or later,
they'll cry uncle and moveâ¦
just go through the pain of
moving out and moving to another
facility, and we're actually
starting to see some of that happen.
Ingress,
Brandon Giella: interesting
Paul: investment-grade characteristics
for self-storage are high-visibility
facilities in growth corridors,
uh, with strong demographics
and, and barriers to entry.
Um, and, uh, and, you know, it, it does
not have to be a, a metropolitan area.
As we've said often, we build the
city skirt markets that surround
major metropolitan areas, but they're
typically very, very high growth, lots
of mobility, lots of inward migration,
and that's really what makes a good
self-storage market, and that's what
the institutional buyers look for.
So that's sort of a quick run-through
on industrial and self-storage, um,
in terms of their five factors, um,
and the things that really, that,
that develop the character and the
nature of, of those two asset classes
Brandon Giella: That's helpful.
That's such a good complement to some of
the stuff we talked about last episode.
I'm curious, you mentioned one
of the, uh, demand drivers is
mobility, and we have talked about
that before in a previous episode.
But what, uhâ¦
And here we are in June 2026, what do
you think is one of the things that
will unlock the, the housing market
and for, for folks to be moving more?
Is it just interest rates, or
how do you think about that?
Paul: It's pretty much interest rates.
The, the cost of housingâ¦
There, there are some trends
in housing that are actually
very positive for self-storage.
Because costs have, have escalated so
much, the large track builders that
are building entry-level and sort of
second tier homes ha- have made them
smaller in order to make them more
affordable, and where they've taken
space out of them is often in storage.
Um, you know, the closets are smaller,
there's less attic space, there's
less walk-in attic space on the second
floor, um, because they're having to
design that as more usable, functional
living space, um, because they're
taking, you know, several hundred
square feet out of the overall plan.
That's actually gonna drive more usage
of storage as people move into those
homes, don't have the room to store
everything they need and, and will
put it in a self-storage facility.
Um, but, but truly right
now you've got two dynamics.
You've got three dynamics.
Two of them work together.
One of them is the cost of housing.
The second is interest rates,
and those two combined price a
lot of people out of the market.
The third factor is the spread.
So, for example, I was fortunate
enough to refinance the residential
real estate I own, um, in 2022, and
I think I've got one mortgage at 2.3%
and another one at 2.7%.
Um, if you have a 2.3%
mortgage, you've got to have a compelling
reason to move, to give up that 2.3%
mortgage and go borrow money at 6%.
Um, because if you bought a house that
cost the same as the one you bought,
you sold, your, your payment is gonna
go up significantly just because of
the difference in interest rates.
So on one side, you've got new buyers
that are constrained, um, in terms
of the cost and the cost of money,
and you've got sellers that, that
either bought or refinanced during the
post-COVID period where rates were so
ridiculously low that really aren't
motivated to give up those mortgages.
That's kind of got a Mexican
standoff in the market.
Until that resolves itself, and it will
at some point, until it resolves itself,
um, you're not gonna see robust, you
know, housing starts and robust, uh,
home sales numbers, which is one of the
components that drive self-storage usage.
So not the only one, thank,
thank goodness, but one of them
Brandon Giella: Well, what
I'm hearing is my children are
gonna live in a tiny home with a
self-storage unit attached somewhere.
So I'm, uh, I'm looking forward to that.
So
Paul: Well, I mean, it reallyâ¦
The, the younger generations
today are, areâ¦
Whether they live in an apartment or
they, they live in their first or second
home, they're already using self-storage
as an extension of their home.
It's where they keep their s-
their jet skis, their skis,
their, their bikes, theirâ¦
All the stuff they don't have
room for in the apartment or the
small, you know, 1,800 square foot
starter home that they bought.
Uh, we're already seeing that
trend in the younger generation, so
Brandon Giella: Yeah, that's fascinating.
Okay, talk to us about relative
sector performance, and then you've
got some observations regarding
positioning if we have some time.
Paul: Yeah, and
Brandon Giella: on that
Paul: yeah, I had some real fun.
I pulled a lot of data, um, on these
seven sectors in the real estate industry
and looked at how they ranked across
five different aspects that are related
to the five characteristics that we've
talked about for each sector, but not
necessarily direct derivatives of them.
So the five se- the five
characteristics were, how well do
they perform during a recession?
In other words, how defensive,
how well do they play defense?
Number two is, how stable is the income?
Number three is, how much
operational complexity do they have?
Number four is the level of
institutional capital interest.
And number five is, how well do they
perform as a hedge against inflation?
So i- if you can kind of picture those
five things in your mind, what I did was I
took their, the data for each of the seven
sectors related to those five factors and
scored it on a scale of one to four So,
uh, uh, high would, uh, if, i- if, let's
take defensive, how well it plays defense.
Low is one point, moderate is two
points, high is three points, very
high is four points, and sort of
similar across all the other, uh,
five or four other, four factors.
And when you add up the numbers, you
get a very interesting result, and I
promise you, I did not, um, look at the
result before I decided whether or not
this might be interesting to include.
But the, the best performing sectors
across those five factors, again, how
well does it play defense in a recession?
How stable is the income?
How operationally complex is it?
How much institutional
capital interest is there?
And how well does it p- provide
a hedge against inflation?
The top two performing sectors,
and they tied, were medical
office and self-storage.
Um, out, out of a possible 20
points, um, self-storage and
medical office both scored 14.
Excuse me, out of a possibleâ¦
I g- I gotta do the math in my head
because I, I ranked the operational
complexity as a negative number.
In other words, a very high would
be a negative four, um, and a,
and a low would be a negative one.
So actually, you had, um, 16
possible points for, for each total
across the f- the five categories.
Um, and, and self-storage and
medical office both scored
14 out of a possible 16.
Second place was industrial,
which scored 13 points.
Third place was multifamily at 12 points.
Fourth place was retail.
Um, and fifth place, uh, tied,
again, office and hotel, uh,
tied with a total of four points.
And just to give you an
example, uh, I'll use hotel.
Defensive, uh, ability to play defense
in a recession, hotels are very low.
When we have a recession, consumer
spending drops, people tend to travel
less, hotels are, are, are more exposed.
Income stability ranked as low because
you have a new tenant every 24 hours.
Um, operational complexity
in the hotel industry, very
high, so a negative four there.
Um, institutional capital interest,
moderate, so it got two points there.
And then, uh, a hedge against
inflation actually performs
pretty well, scored four.
But when you take the, the negative
four points for operational complexity
into consideration, its, its score
total was a total of four points versus
self-storage and, and mo- and medical
office at 14, so a pretty wide gap.
And, and again, I think if you, if
you'll, if you'll get the document that
we've put together, 'cause I know this
is incredibly hard to follow on a podcast
But if you'll get the document we put
together, I think if you, if you think
about your, your investment objectives
and your risk tolerance, um, and you
think about the contextual environment
that we're in now and that you expect
to be in during the holding period
you're invested in this real estate,
this kind of viewpoint becomes very
valuable in making investment decisions
Brandon Giella: This is fascinating.
This is super helpful too, because you can
see, and you've got it color-coded here,
so you've got high, green, low is red,
moderate's yellow, and it helps just give
this really quick visual on where, uh,
essentially you wanna place your money.
If you're thinking
Paul: Yeah
Brandon Giella: commercial real
estate, where do I wanna put my chips?
Paul: Yep.
Um, we got, we got this, we
got a minute or two left.
Let me hit some s- some just
observations from a positioning
standpoint, and I won't hit them all.
Um, but best historical recession
resilience, self-storage and medical
office, which is one of the reasons
why they scored so high overall.
Um, lowest cap rates, highest pricing,
uh, prime industrial and multifamily.
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul: Um, most institutional
capital interest, multifamily,
institutional, and medical office.
Um, isn't it interesting that when
you look at the, uh, the, it, mostâ¦
And I, I'm not talking about most
interest, it's actually the, the most
dollars invested in, uh, that sector.
Um, it's invested in three of the top four
sectors in the list we just went through.
Brandon Giella: Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, it makes total sense
Paul: most challenged, uh, traditional
sector today, without a doubt, is office,
and that's a story that pretty much
everybody knows because of the shift,
um, to, uh, to, you know, remote work.
Um, you know, interesting that we
say that as we talk on a podcast,
and, uh, I, I'm actually in my
office, but you're working from home.
So, you know, 50% of the population
today work from home, so.
Brandon Giella: That's right.
Paul: and the last one I'll mention
as we, as we close up, because I
thought, again, this is a little bit
self-serving, but this is not my data.
Um, the, the best short to
medium hold development strategy
is a tie between self-storage and
small-bay industrial in growth
markets, which is exactly what
we're doing in Growth Fund 2.
And i- if you go back to how we scored,
if you look at self-storage, um, and,
and, and y- y- we, one of the factors we
looked at was liquidity and hold period.
In self-storage, uh, the data would
tell you that, you know, as short as
a three year holding period, um, is
possible in self-storage because of
the interest in liquidity, and that's
shorter than any other category.
And that data comes back around
when you look to say, "Okay, what
does the data set as the best short
to medium-term hold strategy?"
Um, and it's, it's both small-bay
and, and self-storage, so
Brandon Giella: What I love about this,
uh, presentation, if you will, is you
guys have had this thesis for a very
long time, and obviously have done
very well, uh, doing your analysis,
making these investments for decades.
And you're starting to see that thesis
borne out in the institutional grade
with that more and more demand there.
then you run basically an audit a wide
variety of sectors and factors, and
you run all this data and put it in a
chart, and it still confirms the thesis
that you guys have had for decades.
So I just think that's such a fascinating
story, and I love that you've, you've kind
of done this homework on yourself, but
then seeing the results after the fact,
it's, uh, it's bearing out, which is cool
Paul: Yeah, I'm, I'mâ¦
I, I love, uh, if I have a, a
gift, it's understanding how
things relate to each other.
And this whole idea of this three-part
series really came from a conversation
that I had with our marketing director
just talking about how I thought it
would be helpful to people to understand
how the different sectors relate to
each other across the key factors.
Um, and I would really encourage you, if
this has been interesting at all, to, to
go to the website and grab the document
that we've put together, um, because I, I
really, uh, uh, um, it, it's just I, I've
really enjoyed putting all this together
and working through the data, and I really
do think the document will be helpful.
Uh, just helpful in understanding
commercial real estate in general,
but also I think it can help you
make better investment decisions, so.
Brandon Giella: It's because
you're a great marketer, Paul.
That'sâ¦
Paul: Yeah
Brandon Giella: back with confidence
to your marketing director now.
This is such a beautiful thing.
Paul: I am anything but
a marketer, my friend
Brandon Giella: So definitely go to
aaastorageinvestments.com/insights
where you'll see this guide,
and, uh, check out the show notes
where you'll see a link as well.
And then please listen to the episode
before this, where you will see, uh, a
lot more detail on the multifamily office,
retail hotel, and medical office sectors.
And we have one more episode
coming up in this series, and
we will see you there next time.
Paul: Yep.
Brandon Giella: Paul
Paul: Thanks, Brian.
Take care, buddy