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- Ag Markets with Greg Johnson
- Ragged Corn but a Good Start for IL Crops
- Ag Weather with Drew Lerner
In the May 13, 2026 edition of the Closing Market Report, host Todd Gleason discusses agricultural markets, planting progress, and weather conditions with three industry experts.
Greg Johnson of TGM highlights a recent market rally driven by USDA significantly lowering yield and acreage estimates for hard red winter wheat, and he advises farmers to consider catching up on soybean crop sales while prices remain high. '
Next, University of Illinois agronomist Giovani Preza Fontes reports that Illinois corn and soybean planting is ahead of schedule, noting that the crops are off to a solid start despite some uneven emergence caused by fluctuating April temperatures.
Finally, meteorologist Drew Lerner forecasts welcome warming across the Midwest corn belt, though he warns that impending heat and low humidity will further stress the already struggling hard red winter wheat crops in the High Plains.
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- Ragged Corn but a Good Start for IL Crops
- Ag Weather with Drew Lerner
In the May 13, 2026 edition of the Closing Market Report, host Todd Gleason discusses agricultural markets, planting progress, and weather conditions with three industry experts.
Greg Johnson of TGM highlights a recent market rally driven by USDA significantly lowering yield and acreage estimates for hard red winter wheat, and he advises farmers to consider catching up on soybean crop sales while prices remain high. '
Next, University of Illinois agronomist Giovani Preza Fontes reports that Illinois corn and soybean planting is ahead of schedule, noting that the crops are off to a solid start despite some uneven emergence caused by fluctuating April temperatures.
Finally, meteorologist Drew Lerner forecasts welcome warming across the Midwest corn belt, though he warns that impending heat and low humidity will further stress the already struggling hard red winter wheat crops in the High Plains.
Creators and Guests
What is Closing Market Report?
Established 1985
The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.
website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek
cmr260513
- Ag Markets with Greg Johnson
- Ragged Corn but a Good Start for IL Crops
- Ag Weather with Drew Lerner
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 13th of May, 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson from TGM. Giovani Preza Fontes, an agronomist here on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the University of Illinois for Extension and in the Department of Crop Sciences, will join us to discuss the growing season so far in the state of Illinois and that maybe ragged corn field you have out there. Then, we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. We'll do that with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is online on demand at willag.org. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
01:13 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson
Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, totalgrainmarketing.com, now joins us to discuss the marketplace. Greg, it is a busy week in agriculture. The WASDE figures were out yesterday morning, E15 is happening on Capitol Hill, the President is in China, and tomorrow morning the CONAB agency out of Brazil will update their numbers. I missed the big news yesterday when looking at the markets, that wheat rallied significantly. It did not manage to have any follow-through during the day trade today. What happened there?
Greg Johnson: The USDA lowered the yield significantly. It is one of the lowest yields they've had for hard red winter wheat out west, primarily in the Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, and Colorado area. They lowered the yields by as much as 30% in some of those states. Not only did they lower the yield, but there are a lot of abandoned acres, dropping the acreage number. You had a big reduction in production due to the lower acres and the lower yield. Soft red, on the other hand, looks pretty good. If you look at the weekly crop ratings in Illinois, everything east of the Mississippi River is in the 70% good to excellent category. By contrast, in the western states, that hard red winter wheat area, the best is about 20 to 30% good to excellent. So there is a big difference between hard red winter wheat conditions and soft red winter wheat conditions. Hard red did have some follow-through. We've been 25 cents either side of unchanged today on the hard red. The soft red has not had any follow-through at all. The jury is still out on just how much damage has been done to the hard red and whether the government captured all the reduction, or if they will reduce it in upcoming reports. There is still uncertainty on the hard red, but that was the fireworks yesterday in the wheat market.
Todd Gleason: We have been discussing a big abandonment number out west for a few weeks now, so a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario could have taken place. What did you think of the numbers for corn and soybeans that the USDA released? They were on par.
Greg Johnson: Pretty on par. I think there is some underlying support in the corn market. The bean market comes down to whether China is going to buy more beans from us. I do not think we can expand domestic crush fast enough to offset the bigger production numbers in soybeans. In corn, not only are we looking at less corn here based on the numbers, but if you factor in the dry conditions in the southeast and southwest United States, even if we shave a few bushels off the national yield combined with a lower acreage number when the new report comes out on June 30th, you can argue that the corn ending stocks could get smaller than where the government projects it today. You throw world stocks on top of that. World corn stocks are the tightest they have been in over seven years. We are not running out of corn, but it tightens everything up and emphasizes that we need a good corn crop, something close to average. If we grow an average crop, that should keep us going for another year. If we have any hiccups, things could get interesting this summer.
Todd Gleason: I take it that has you halting new crop corn sales potentially, and for soybeans, trying to add to what you have already put in place?
Greg Johnson: Depending on where a farmer is, there is nothing wrong with making some catch-up sales. This is the highest price we have had. We are within a dime of the contract highs, and you have to go back almost a year before we've had these prices. We can make money at these prices on soybeans. We have to remember the funds are the second or third longest they've ever been. If they decide to exit for whatever reason—a disappointing Xi-Trump meeting, more acres, or whatever the story is—I am reminded of the third week of March when the funds decided to get out for one day and we were down the 70-cent limit. Not to say we cannot go higher, but if the funds decide to bail out, we could lose quite a bit in the bean market. Farmers should take a hard look at their sales, and if they are not near 50%, it may not be a bad idea to get a few more beans sold at these levels.
Todd Gleason: Thanks much. We'll talk with you tomorrow. Hopefully, we'll have news from the President Trump and President Xi meeting to discuss, and maybe some soybean sales.
Greg Johnson: Sounds good. Looking forward to it.
Todd Gleason: That's Greg Johnson with TGM, totalgrainmarketing.com.
06:55 Ragged Corn but a Good Start for IL Crops
Todd Gleason: Giovani Preza Fontes from the Department of Crop Sciences and an agronomist here on the Urbana-Champaign campus at the University of Illinois with Extension now joins us to talk about the early planting season for corn and soybeans across the state. You have written an article for the FarmDoc website. This is in Crop Central. You can go to farmdoc.illinois.edu and look in the field crops section, or search for Giovani Preza Fontes. Your discussion surrounds what the beginning of the growing season has been like for this 2026 crop year. What can you tell me about it?
Giovani Preza Fontes: Thanks for having me. In this article, I provided a quick update on corn planting progress and evaluated yield prospects as we move into April. People are starting to get anxious about planting. I did a quick review on the USDA NASS reports, and we are ahead of schedule, especially for soybeans. In the first NASS report in early April, we saw a lot of soybeans planted before corn. As of May 10th, about 57% of the soybean crop was planted, up 11% from the previous week. Planting progress is keeping a fast pace, well ahead of the five-year average between 2021 and 2025. Corn started a little later than soybeans, but it is progressing at a near-normal pace. About 54% of the corn was planted by May 10th, up 16% from the prior week, remaining close to the five-year average.
Todd Gleason: Emergence for both crops is running 10 to 14% ahead of the usual five-year average as of May 10th. There have been temperature fluctuations, which means variability in growing degree accumulations. What impact does that have on crop emergence?
Giovani Preza Fontes: It is no surprise that emergence for both crops is ahead of schedule because we have more acres planted by this time of year. Temperatures in April fluctuated significantly. Across the state, daytime highs ranged from the 40s to the 80s, and nighttime lows from the upper 20s to the 50s. We calculate growing degree days by taking the sum of the highest and lowest temperature for the day, dividing by two, and subtracting the base temperature of 50. If you look at the 30-year average for daily growing degree days accumulation in April, we only accumulate between 8 to 10 growing degree days. However, data for Champaign shows we have had weeks accumulating 20 to 25 growing degree days per day because highs were in the upper 80s. It usually takes 110 to 120 growing degree days for a soybean or corn seedling to emerge. Due to the variability in April, it took about two to three weeks for fields planted in April to emerge.
Todd Gleason: Does it mean that emergence will be ragged and take longer for some plants to come up than others?
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yes, especially if temperatures go down and stay down after planting. If we accumulate 15 to 20 growing degree days per day, emergence might take a week. If we are in the single digits, it may take three to five days more. It would not be a surprise to see a difference in emergence within a field. As long as emergence occurs within a week, we should be fine. There is discussion about corn needing to emerge within 48 hours, otherwise, it becomes a weed. I do not agree with that rule. Given the conditions in April, I do not think we had many fields where all seeds emerged within 48 hours.
Todd Gleason: Tell me about this concept of slow emergence causing a plant to act as a weed in the field.
Giovani Preza Fontes: That discussion focuses more on corn than soybeans. Soybean plants adapt well to their environment. If they come up late, they compensate by producing more branches, nodes, and pods. Corn does not compensate as well. The idea is that later-emerging corn plants stay behind because they are not competitive. I do not agree with the term "weed." A weed is an unwanted plant competing for resources and reducing yield. Later-emerging corn crops stay behind, but they do not reduce the yields of neighboring plants. They may produce a smaller ear, but that still contributes to overall yield. Depending on conditions, larger neighboring plants may compensate by producing larger ears.
Todd Gleason: How would you term the beginning of this growing season for corn and soybeans in Illinois?
Giovani Preza Fontes: We are off to a good start. There were instances where fields planted in late March or early April sustained frost injury around April 20th. I have heard reports of replanting, but other fields recovered and did not require it. As we move into mid-May, people get anxious because delayed planting minimizes yield potential. Yields are maximized when planting between mid and late April. Yield losses start to occur in May, but they do not increase rapidly until after mid-May. It should be dry enough this week that a lot of planting will happen.
Todd Gleason: Thank you, Giovani.
Giovani Preza Fontes: Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason: That is Giovani Preza Fontes. He is an agronomist with University of Illinois Extension and the Department of Crop Sciences. His article can be found at farmdoc.illinois.edu.
18:11 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner
Todd Gleason: Let's check in on the growing conditions in North America. We are joined by Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Shall we begin in the corn belt across the Midwest? They are hoping for a bit more heat. Can you tell me about that and any expected rainfall?
Drew Lerner: We are moving in the right direction for heat. Over the next few days, it will warm up. We expect 50 and 60-degree temperatures in the eastern Midwest today, but in two to three days, those temperatures should push into the 80s, providing a break for Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. Farther west, it will heat up this afternoon on the western fringe of the producing areas. Friday and Saturday will be the warmest for the western corn belt, with 80s and lower 90s. This heat will spread across the Midwest into the weekend. By the first part of next week, the northwestern corn belt will see cooling that will eventually spread through the region, bringing temperatures down to the 60s and 70s. A cold air mass coming in from the northwest will stimulate rain and thunderstorm activity. We will likely run into severe weather, bringing locally heavy rain, hail, and damaging wind potential.
Todd Gleason: The USDA confirmed that the hard red winter wheat crop in Kansas and parts of Colorado is in rough condition. The heat helping the corn belt is likely detrimental there. Can you detail the conditions in those regions?
Drew Lerner: It will be warmer there sooner, lasting for four or five days. Temperatures will reach the 80s and 90s across hard red winter wheat country. We will also have very low humidity in the afternoons, accompanied by wind. This will cause desiccation if we do not get rain. The cooler air dropping into the region later will bring a chance for thunderstorms, hopefully offering relief. However, as of now, the high plains region will not see much relief, and unirrigated crops will continue to deteriorate.
Todd Gleason: Let's discuss Canada. What is the current situation across the prairies?
Drew Lerner: In Canada, it has been very dry in the southwestern prairies, while flooding is occurring in the northeastern prairies. The northeast needs drying, but they only have about a day and a half of drier weather left before entering a frequent precipitation pattern with cooler temperatures. The northeastern parts of the prairies, including the northeast half of Saskatchewan and northern and central Manitoba, will be chilly and likely not field-ready until early June, which impacts canola and wheat producers. The southwestern prairies are expected to receive some moisture over the next week, which should improve planting and emergence conditions. However, it will get cool, and they will see more frost and freezes.
Todd Gleason: Thanks much, Drew.
Drew Lerner: You bet. Have a good day.
Todd Gleason: That is Drew Lerner with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Our theme music is written, performed, and produced by Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason.