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Louisiana Farm Bureau is constantly working protect and promote Louisiana's farmers, ranchers, and rural residents. This podcast exists to share stories of those farmers with interviews about their farms and issues important to them. Here, we will also share about the work Farm Bureau is doing on their behalf on issues related to public policy from the parish level all the way to the halls of Congress in D.C.
Hey, thank you for joining us for the Louisiana Farm Bureau podcast. I'm Avery Davidson hosting this week instead of Karl Wiggers. Don't be disappointed. I do the best I can under the circumstances. But, you know, one of the things that affects all of us is the weather and more importantly, climate, which is just weather out over time.
And so what better time than to have now be with Jay Grymes? You know who he is, the state climatologist. Jay, thanks for joining us.
Good to be here.
Every it's always you've always been good to Louisiana Farm Bureau. Always been good to agriculture. And I know it goes back to the first time you were a state climatologist round one.
And, here we are around two. And so what comes around goes around, and, Farm Bureau Bureau has been good to me, too. So let's talk a little bit of weather and a little bit of climate.
Well, let's talk about the drought monitor. Usually when we have you here, it's because the U.S. Drought Monitor shows a pretty dire picture of Louisiana. But I'm looking here, at the map, and all I'm seeing is a little yellow there in the heel of the boot.
Yeah, that's almost, just an accident down there. The truth is, we've been, not only not in drought, but for lots of folks, it's been a little bit on the wet side across the state. There are some places where maybe they could use a little bit of rain. But drought is not an issue right now, and I don't anticipate it becoming an issue anytime soon.
As we get into the late spring early summer, we'll have to take another look. But for the time being, much quieter from a drought perspective, especially when you compare the things to just a couple of years ago.
And the great thing about the internet is you can pull up the old Drought Monitor map. So I went back to April of last year, and it's pretty much almost the same area there toward the the western side of the state, where we had just a little abnormally dry. Is that is that typically the pattern that we have March going into April?
Yeah.
When when folks look at the drought monitor, when you see that abnormally dry, don't let that get you too worked up. That's really just simply something that can occur after a couple of weeks without rain. And we can manage a couple of weeks without rain. It's the couple of months that become a problem. Now, as we get deeper into the spring and things start to really warm up, then you'll see a little bit more of a potential for ins and outs of minor dryness, low end drought.
But the way things look right now and looking at the forecast out for the next 1 to 3 months, there's really nothing out there that's telling us be on the watch for significant set up of drought conditions really anywhere in the state. So we're in pretty good shape as we go through the planting and growing season. In the next weeks and couple of.
Months, I turn the clock back to April of 22, and that was the last time we actually had a drought monitor map. That was really ugly to look at. I mean, red all along the southwest, you know, D3 on the border of some D4 in there. What I guess what has changed climate wise? As far as what you saw back then to where we are now.
Oh, there. And I remember that I was April by the time we got to the end of that summer. We were looking at a statewide D3, D4, serious drought. And in fact, and you had me and the commissioner by, a couple of months ago. The drought Monitor is a big reason why I'm back on board, doing this kind of work.
So the biggest change, really, is simply that the rains have returned. We had a very dry spell there in 92. I mean, 22 and 23. We've put an end to that, at least for the short term right now. And, you know, that's more typical for Louisiana. It's the wettest state of the lower 48, as I like to remind people.
So drought is not something that we're particularly accustomed to, which means that when it does set up like it did in those couple of years, we going to have really devastating impacts. And not only were those years tough on agriculture, they were extra tough on forestry, too.
Up north, north of Louisiana, they've been getting the exact opposite of drought. We've seen a lot of rain in the plains, and I'm transitioning now. The old segue, as they say, into some flooding issues. I mean, we've seen severe flooding in Kentucky. We've seen, rainfall all in the Midwest that eventually has to make its way, as you put it, in one of your emails down river, literally down the Mississippi.
It's all coming downhill. That's right. So when you see flooding, particularly in the Ohio Basin, which is Kentucky, Ohio, of course, also parts of Tennessee, when you see high water there, you know that it's coming here. And in fact, we're going to get, relatively high water, probably the highest water on the Mississippi River that we've seen since 2020.
So we're not talking about record flows here, but we're talking about water levels that may even be high enough to prompt the Corps of Engineers to open, to partially open bonnet carry spillway. In fact, earlier, in these previous days, we've been having some conversations. I say we go up with the Corps of Engineers as they try and get a feel for whether the river is going to indeed achieve that level of flow.
That might prompt at least a partial opening of Bonnie Carey. The other thing to remember is if the Mississippi is high, the Atchafalaya as high as well. So and in some ways, high water on the Atchafalaya can be a bigger problem because you've got communities that aren't as protected from rising water on the Atchafalaya as, the river communities along the Mississippi are.
So we're watching both rivers pretty carefully right now. And the way it looks right now, the Mississippi probably peaks in about a week or so as you get to Baton Rouge, maybe 8 to 10 days for New Orleans. And the issue is going to be this is going to get high enough to prompt that opening on the Bonnie Carey.
Now, for most folks, that's not going to be a real problem. But we will see occasions for sand boils and some nuisance problems along the lower Mississippi when that water level gets up to that kind of a level. Now down there around, Lake Marple and Pontchartrain. Yeah. Opening even a small or partial opening of the Bonnie Carey can have some impacts there.
So in lower Livingston Parish, you might see a little bit of impact. But from when, if they open the bottom maybe a.
Little bit in Livingston, it's probably a little farther south. You get down to Saint John and some of the parishes that border Pontchartrain. And what happens is you're going to basically surge fresh water from the Mississippi into, Pontchartrain. And while Pontchartrain isn't Gulf salty, that change in salinity can have some impacts to, both vegetation and, and wildlife.
The fish life, if you will. Yeah, in the Lake Pontchartrain.
Yeah. I know a lot of the oyster farmers in that area. You know, always watch to see what kind of openings there are and how much freshwater comes out. You mentioned about, you know, the Mississippi River, it being high leads to a high flow river. What about the Red River? Because I know a lot of folks up in northwest Louisiana.
They they're saying that's high too.
Good point. It is high. And and of course, the Red River is going to contribute to the Atchafalaya flow as well. And we don't want to forget the people along the red, because whenever the river's high there locally there are impacts as well. But we also have to remember this is spring. This is flood season for Louisiana. We have a number of rivers that are in close to or in minor flood, and they're going to be sort of floating in and out of flood situations depending on rains.
These are more short term local rains compared to the Mississippi, which is responding to those heavy rains. In fact, in some cases 10 to 15in of rain, a week or so back, that is prompting that big surge of water coming downhill. So, in fact, one of the things to remember is that in terms of rainfall in Louisiana, virtually none of that gets into the Mississippi.
Right? So the Mississippi is behaving based on rain in other states, our local Louisiana rivers. That's where we have to watch our local rainfall to see those rivers ebb and flow with time.
Yeah, we're talking about like the Tick four, the Amy, the komi, those are the ones that.
Are in all the Sabine Calcasieu. So yeah. Oh, and the red. You know, the red. Yes. Some of it is influenced by water that's coming out of Oklahoma and Texas. But much of the red is simply responding to rainfall from our from the arklatex southward.
On the Mississippi. I know back and I'm going back to 2011. You know how I love to go back to my old man history cover and, those stories. But 2011, we saw the opening of the Morganza Spillway. And I was yeah, that was it was.
We're not going to get. Yeah. Near that.
But there's also the four bay that's right there by the Morganza Spillway, where you have some folks who actually plant soybeans in there. And take a gamble. It's a it's a big gamble every year that because you think that's we're going to get high enough to where that four bay might, be impacted a little.
Yeah. I don't think there's much question that a lot of that area there and point Gary Parish is going to go under. I haven't looked that closely yet as to just how high the water is going to get in that portion of the river. Not going to be a threat to open, Morganza, but everything in that area, which is great farmland.
Yeah. When it's dry, but, probably those folks are going to be, they're, they're going to lose their investment this year.
Well, and that's why it's such a good area to farm, because that river comes up and deposits fresh silt. And it it ends up being, really good there. So we go from flood season to the next big season, and that's hurricane season. All the all the biggies have come out with their predictions for named storms. And, Jay, I love you, but I don't like it.
I don't like it one bit, man.
Well, the numbers are up. There's no question about that from all of the forecast groups. But hey, guess what? The numbers have been up for most of the previous ten seasons. It's intriguing to look at what these forecasts are. They're not way high. If you remember, last year, they were really talking about some frighteningly high numbers that fortunately didn't materialize yet.
We still had eight named storms in the Gulf of Mexico and some real monsters. They included Helene and Milton in Florida, and we can't forget our own little Francine that created problems in, Southeast Louisiana. So one of the things, as I get older and older, those forecasts, I put them out there, I talk about them, but they really don't tell us a lot about what the threat is to Louisiana.
17-18 named storms doesn't tell us how many are going to be in the Gulf, and certainly doesn't tell us how many are going to impact the Bayou State. That's where our focus, my focus is what's the threat to Louisiana? And depending on which group you look at, they're all saying a landfall along the central Gulf Coast region is likely.
The question is how likely? Well, I would say that somewhere between Houston and say, Pensacola, I would say the likelihood of at least one landfall is almost a certainty. So that leaves the next question is going to be Louisiana in that range between Houston and Pensacola. And how strong will it be? We don't have an answer for that, but let's put it in perspective for Louisiana in the last 24 years, seasons, basically, for the 21st century, we've had 29 hits.
We've had four years where there were three or more storms that impacted Louisiana. So for folks that are thinking, well, do I need to get ready now, that's a no brainer of course you do, and now's the time to do it. We've still got, six weeks or so before we get into hurricane season. Get your preps together now.
Don't wait til two days before the first storm comes a knock. And, but with the forecast being what they are and the fact that most of these expert groups think that, the Gulf Coast is going to get impacted, just assume one is coming, get everything ready now. You won't have to worry about it at the last minute.
And just so people don't have to Google in the middle of this, you know, we'll go through the predictions there. Colorado State, predict 17 named storms, nine cat. One two hurricanes, four cat. 3 to 5 hurricanes. AccuWeather 13 to 18. I love how they do ranges. It's Colorado State wants to be exact. Right. Here's an exact number.
I think, ranges are probably better for everything. Weather Bell saying 15 to 19 named storms and NOAA 30 year normals 14 named storm. So everybody is predicting well, with the exception of AccuWeather predicting something above the normal.
And they're all really sort of leaning high. And we've also got a couple other groups that are coming out with, their forecasts and the the end result is let's just use the last ten years, as our prep time hours, our example chances are very good that Louisiana is going to be impacted by at least one storm.
And if you remember, last year it was actually two. There was, Francine that hit us and then barrel on its backside produced all those tornadoes in the Arklatex region. So, it's very unlikely we're going to go through this season unscathed. So just get yourself ready to go right now. And that includes deciding whether you maybe need to, if you live in one of the coastal parishes.
What are your get out of Dodge plans? Not just your hunker down plans.
And we need to prepare, I think, further inland as well, because you brought up barrel with all the tornadoes up there in, northwest Louisiana. But Laura and Delta both did significant damage in north Louisiana, where that used to not be the case.
Well, those are two big, big storms, and they held their shape together very well. As they moved inland, Ida did the same thing. Ida cut across southeast Louisiana, rolled into Mississippi. When it reached Mississippi, the National Hurricane Center says it was still a hurricane. So it cut across southeast Louisiana, and it took like 9 or 10 hours to do that.
So, yeah, there's no forecasting who's going to get hit and how hard they're going to get hit. But let's just use our recent history and let's use a little common sense and get your plans together. Now that way you won't have to worry about it. Unfortunately, when it comes more so than if it comes.
One of the things you do, Jay, that I really love is you've got these emails that you send out to folks all over, and that's kind of how this podcast came to be, because I was starting to look, I was like, we've got enough things to talk to Jay about. Let me invite him on. And he's sent me enough information that I can fake my way through it just by looking at his slides and everything.
But you really put a lot of things in perspective, and you like talking about some of the anomalies between last year and this year, you know, pointing out the colder area of the Atlantic this year as compared to last. Whenever, whenever you're putting these things together, what what are you thinking about? I mean, are you just thinking in the moment, or are you thinking what's going to be most, appropriate for for folks out here?
Well, you know, I don't just I'm trying to peel back the curtain a little bit.
Well, a lot of it is, there's I can't deny there's a little bit of a nerd factor in there. I just like weather and climate, and I actually, you know, I have that experience. Almost 30 years of TV forecasting, but that's short term weather. Most of these topics we're talking about drought, hurricanes, river flooding, these are a prolonged event.
So they're more climatic, a little bit more in my my, my safety zone, if you will. And then when I put these things together, what I really think about is trying to, provide enough of a science background that people understand the why without overwhelming them. I mean, it's very easy in weather science. Weather science is basically physics.
So if I wanted to overdo it, it would be easy to do. Fortunately for me, I only have so much of a knowledge base myself. So I figure if I stay within my window of understanding and express that in relatively easy to interpret graphics, people can walk away basic understanding. And then if there's more, they want to know.
That's what Jay's phone number is for. Or better still, Google. Yeah, Google does it all. And so a lot of this is motivated by my own interest followed by thinking about, okay, what are the impacts to Louisiana. And that makes it kind of easy. In fact, the thing that I have trouble with is trying not to do one of those every day, because it'd be easy to spend four hours every day picking one more thing and turning it into a discussion.
So I do try and sort of pick and choose, these topics, based upon their relevance. And these have all driven themselves in the last couple of weeks. All the forecast groups have come out with their hurricane forecast, the interest on the Mississippi that's that does its own, especially because people still have a memory of 2011 that you brought up and then, you know, when it comes to drought, yeah, there's a little bit of a a personal thing there because that's what got me back into this business.
But it's also obviously for Louisiana agriculture, it is a big, big deal. So these are all easy topics to handle. And it's just a matter of figuring out how much or how little to talk about it.
But to your credit and I'm going to flatter you a little bit here, you do a very good job of not hyping it. Whereas, you know, you see some online, I mean, social media is is the absolute worst about this. Oh, there's going to be a horrible freeze on some date that's like four weeks in the future. And it's like, how can anyone know that that's going to happen?
And I think that you've done a really good job of of trying to reel that in and show people, hey, yeah, there's there are some upward trends here. There are some concerns to be had. But it's it don't overhype it.
Well, that's always been, I hope, the mantra that I've not only had, but that people have taken away is that I'm not here to hype. I'm here to simply tell you a story. I'm here. Yeah, maybe I might give you some information. That's something that's not certain to happen, but it's just a heads up that it could happen.
Perfect example is this chatter about the Bonnie Carey Spillway. It's not a done deal, at least not at this point or may not be, but, but the issue is just in case you're wondering, is the river going to get high enough to impact, the, the, the spillway there? But the other thing is, and I know there are lots of websites out there that, and, and now even, some, Twitter, platforms that are, overdoing it a bit, but part of the problem there is these guys get paid for every hit.
Yeah. So, you know, I, I guess. There you go. I'm not smart enough to realize I could leverage this for income, but. Yeah, if you, you know, you put out a graphic that shows a category three hurricane hitting Louisiana, everybody is going to click on that, right? Every time somebody clicks on it, you make a buck and you get 30,000 clicks.
You're doing pretty good. And and I've talked to some people in South Louisiana who are doing this as a profit motive, and the numbers they earn on social media are staggering. Wow. So, I guess what I in the end, what I still want people out there to do is anytime you see one of those fried casts, take it with a grain of salt and you are always welcome to ask me what I think.
And more often than not, I'm going to reel it back a little bit. I may not say that's nonsense. I may even say that could be possible. Yeah, but when we start talking about things that are 3 or 4 weeks out, sometimes eight, ten weeks out, I'm going to put it in that temporal perspective that includes, let's wait a while.
Don't even get me started on the number of variables you brought up physics already. That's a level of calculus that, I don't think either one of us are qualified to do, but the other thing you're you're willing to call out that a forecast, even your own, has been a bust and that that's admirable, you know.
Well, I appreciate that. I mean, it's kind of, when it when it's a bust, it's a bust. And, you know, you can try and bury it and you can try and make excuses and you can say, well, the models were saying this, but the reality is it's still a bust. You might as well admit to it. And I, I don't, I don't really applaud those guys that want to bury the fact that it was a mess.
And by the way, this is forecasting. You're not going to get it right every time. If you can go back and look and see, okay, what did I miss? Or in the case of a couple of weeks ago where the models were convinced it was going to be, a hellish day in Louisiana and it didn't pan out.
And then you go and you look at the observational data and you find out, well, what the models were forecasting just never came to fruition. Right. So, okay, so the forecast was legit based on the guidance, but Mother Nature doesn't watch the forecast models and sometimes you end up with a bust. There's nothing wrong with admitting to that.
And I appreciate you giving me some some, compliment for admitting to it, but I'm always humored by those guys that won't admit to it. It's wrong. All I have to do is go back on your website and see it's wrong.
I mean, baseball players would kill for a 500 batting average, right? I mean, so, I mean, if you're right for the time, right, you're doing well.
Well, I'm 51.
But we've got that noted. Well, Jay, I appreciate you taking time with us and spend a little time and listen, any time that you've got something, you know, we're going to share it on the Daily Voice. We're going to get it out to our members as well. So if you know of something that that they really need to know about, we appreciate you reaching out to us.
Always a pleasure to be here with the Farm Bureau folks. And as for those products there, I encourage you to share them. For most of them, you'll even if you share them, you folks out there, if you pick them up, you'll see the tagline that shows you where to connect to me. And I'll just add you to the mailing list as well.
Yeah, we'll add that on the show notes, because, you've got the, Louisiana Office of State Climatology Facebook page as well, where I know.
A lot of them there. And, and so that's. Yes, I wearing these two hats also gives me an opportunity to do some things that really wasn't possible when I was in the TV world. So I, I'm exactly where I want to be, exactly where I'm happy to be. And again, thanks for having me on today.
Jay. You are an awesome guest. Thank you so much. He is Jay Grymes, the state climatologist. If you enjoyed this episode of the Louisiana Farm Bureau podcast, be sure to share it with a friend. Go and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. We mentioned a couple links. We'll put those in the show notes. I'm Avery Davidson, thank you for joining us.