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We know that everyone wants to know about inflation - so that's what we are giving you! Inflation numbers and the different metrics we use to try to identify what's really going on in the economy and how people thinking there is going to be a recession, can actually cause a recession.
Additional Economic Insights beyond the Newsletter.
James McCafferty: We're back for an intriguing economics discussion with after office hours with the puget sound economic forecaster today is July 15th 2022. So be sure to check your calendar is economic landscape may have shifted in this Internet time machine. With the current economic climate, we may need to also start noticing the time but will draw the line here for today, at least. To recap we've had a pandemic global changes throughout the Labor market supply chain massive turmoil within the commodities market, we've had the introduction of a war and at this point, the further list just becomes a little overwhelming. Let's just say it's been an action packed couple of years, that's left us all overwhelmed at times. We are now a month out in the publication of our June forecast and there are a lot of things to talk to you from getting that publication to today. Before diving into current economic thoughts let's see who's here today, my name is James McCafferty and I serve as the general manager and publisher of the newsletter. But it's a team that makes the newsletter happen from outside partner to the centers own research staff. Dr Hart hodges is an economics professor at Western Washington University. Hart writes the regional forecast article and will occasionally contribute other articles, based on special topics. Hart and I are both co-directors of the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western. Bethany King is our research economist and works the switches and dials of many of our models for providing a wide array of insights into the forecast. Bethany writes, many of the articles each quarter, as well as the monthly updates for digital subscribers. Okay, this past week i've seen a massive increase the amount of coverage related to inflation. There's probably a joke in there, somewhere, about the rapid inflation inflation coverage, but you probably didn't come here for the comedy. I have some questions, so Hart and Bethany let's see how you answer these. Hart I read that inflation is at 9some percent. Is it really? What should I be thinking when I read these numbers?
Hart Hodges: I mean sure it's 9% but you've got to ask yourself how is it measured? What does that 9% mean? A lot of the economic numbers that you, you get whether it's inflation or GDP growth or something else are annualized numbers so we're looking at a snapshot over a period of time. Sometimes the data are from what happened last month to the month for the month prior or sometimes it's what happened last month, compared to the same month, a year ago. And then it's asking Okay, if this stuff, if those changes, happened all year, what would the rate be? So annualized numbers is one thing. Also, when you're getting headline news information on inflation, especially the CPI, consumer price index, remember that it's a bundle of goods that the typical consumer purchases. And that bundle has to change over time. So what's in the bundle is not a perfect description of what people actually buy. I mean, we didn't we didn't buy too many cell phones decades ago and not not too many 58 inch TVs and that sort of thing, so the bundle definitely changes, housing and how housing/shelter has been included, is a big factor. You know, we often comparing inflation today to what we had the 80s, the way they included housing and shelter in that bundle was different then. So you'll hear some discussion about whether inflation is actually higher now than it was then this and that, I think, in the end just a yeah inflation is roughly something prices are going up a lot. Finally, one more thing, before I turn over to Bethany is a core inflation versus headline. A lot of economists will take out food and energy, because those things are so volatile, for example, James you mentioned the 9% number? Well, since the time that came out, this sort of gets into your intro as well - check the day, oil prices have come down rather sharply since then so yeah it's 9% but that's the start of the conversation, not the end.
James McCafferty: Alright, so Bethany it seems like there's multiple ways to measure inflation right, so talk me through some of the more important ones that from your desk.
Bethany King: Right and we've seen a lot of confusion about this because there's a lot of different ways to measure inflation, so the one that makes headlines is usually the CPI that's the consumer price index and that's the one that comes out from the Bureau of Labor statistics. That one tends to be one of the higher inflation measures. So that's based on a basket of goods, based on what most consumers are spending money on. Now, it includes a lot of different goods that you might not purchase every day, right? It includes used cars, it includes new cars, it includes rent, not everyone pays rent. It includes lots of different goods and it measures, the changes in the prices of those goods. Now there's the PCE, personal consumption expenditures, that comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and that is the one that the Fed uses and that tends to be a little bit lower and the main way that this is different, is is that it looks, it considers substitution effects, and how people are actually spending their money. So, for example, if the price of oranges go up, I might buy more apples because they're cheaper and I might make those substitutions. Or I might buy the store brand instead of the name brand, things like that. It captures more of these choices that consumers actually make when they go to the grocery store when they spend money on things in general. And then the last one, the one that we actually participate in, is the cost of living index, the COLI or whatever, however, you want to pronounce that. But that's going to be similar to the CPI in that it's a basket of goods and each are weighted differently, based on what the typical consumer is spending money on, but the main difference between the CPI and the COLI, is that it's taken at one point in time, in several different cities versus averaged over time.
James McCafferty: Cost of Living Index, Bethany, is always interesting to me, because you're right, we participate in that the one that's done by CtoBR, and that collects the same data point, over the entire country, in a whole list of cities, looking at a fixed basket of goods. Which allows some flexibility for substitution right? The least expensive loaf of bread versus this particular brand. They definitely give you different different data points to look at and I, as a consumer, I guess, as a listener to this show, really pay attention to which number you're looking at, because they are very different numbers and they tell you different things, all right.
Hart Hodges: Make sure to look at different numbers, not just one.
James McCafferty: Right they teach you back in fifth grade math right? you've got to use more than 1 point, use 2 points to make a line and what I don't know was that geometry? I lose track. Alright, so Bethany this all makes sense to me, but tell me this does everyone experience inflation, the same? Aren't there differences or nuances that are important?
Bethany King: So there's a lot of differences in the way, different people experience inflation, so we can throw out that 9% number and say inflation was 9%. That's going to look very different for vastly different people. So mostly it looks different for different income groups, but it can also vary based on age, where you live, things you buy, race, all sorts of things matter. So i'll give the example of myself, so i'm like an average income vegan who doesn't travel much, so my expenses have not increased by much. The cost of a can of beans has stayed the same, so my inflation rate is not much. I don't spend very much on gas. So my expenses have not increased, that much. So that's me, then, if we compare it to someone who's let's just say a minimum wage worker who maybe has to travel a far distance for work, because they have to work in a city, but live further from the city, to be able to afford to live there. They might spend 25% of their income on gas they might spend 50% of their income on rent, and another 20% on groceries, and these are the goods that have really increased in price so it's going to be more on the lower income spectrum where you're going to really have those impacts of inflation. Where people might be experiencing well over that 9% inflation that we're considering to be the average.
James McCafferty: i've seen some great calculators, I think, New York Times, has one that you can actually put in some of your demographic information that will help forecast for your personal CPI might have been. A margin of error on that though I'm sure, but, fascinating. Who knew that being a vegan would be a hedge against inflation right?
Bethany King: Oh yeah it's it's really worked out for me well.
James McCafferty: I can see the bumper stickers come out next week. That's perfect. Alright, so Hart the feds gotta take action here right, I mean I read this week in The Wall Street Journal that their economists, they're expecting a 1% bump later this month, despite the fact that energy prices have fallen considerably, as you mentioned earlier. So my question for you is in two parts 1% really? do you think 1%? and does this raise the expectation that will get pushed into a much larger class of recession?
Hart Hodges: Well, that's not just two questions that changing the subject! The 1%, i'm going with no. I think we might see another three quarter of a percent or 75 basis point bump like we saw the last time from the Fed, which is a big, big move. I think the Fed has to do something fairly noticeable or strong, whatever word you want to use. It is back to their their credibility story, are we really doing all we can to fight inflation. I think the 1% would require really really strong Labor market numbers and even more data on inflation, but my guess, and it's not a whole lot more than that, as you know, with the Fed, is that the drop in energy prices, the drop in gas prices that we're seeing right now, the number of headlines about firms pulling job offerings or openings off the table, I think, there's just enough weakness that the Fed has to go strong to send the right signal, but 1% would probably be a little bit too much, so i'm i'm thinking point seven five but, you'd be shocked to hear this, but i've been wrong before on what the Fed might do. As for a recession, I think that's the other reason you might get 75 basis points, instead of 100. The fed has to worry about slowing the economy too much hitting the brakes too hard. Consumer sentiment is deteriorating, we've got enough weakness globally and so on and so forth, that the odds of a recession keep going up. You know, we could go off on a long tangent about whether we're currently in some sort of a technical recession, since the GDP numbers were negative for the first quarter, we're probably not going to see really strong numbers for the second quarter, but I don't think the national bureau of economic research, the folks that get to say whether we're in a recession or not, are going to look back at first half of this year and say, yes, the recession. It was just too much consumer spending too much activity too much going on for it to say that's a recession. Let's look farther out, later this year beginning of next and say, could these interest rate increases push us into a recession? With such a nervous consumer yeah, it's possible. I think the Fed avoids the 1% for that reason. How's that for hedging my bets and not being too committed on your on my answers?
James McCafferty: Yeah, that was a solid to two handed economist answer.
Hart Hodges: Oh yeah I got that on the one hand and then the other.
James McCafferty: So let's dwell a little bit on on the concept of recession for a moment Hart. So technically we're probably in one right at this at this stage of the game, technically, based on a very narrow definition.
Hart Hodges: Listen, that's the old definition right? The old textbook definition was two consecutive quarters of a decline in GDP and we could we could see that. But part of the reason that was set aside it's there's there's a little bit more to the economy and more to consider. I mean, we have seen weaker GDP numbers in part because inventories have been building so it's not like there's been some huge hit to the economy and that's what it shrunk. Look at the Labor market right? Firms are hiring. You can get a job, if you want one. With that backdrop it's hard to say we're in a recession.
James McCafferty: it's definitely not recessions of the past.
Hart Hodges: So some somebody's going to say, we might be a shallow technical recession and I hate trying to make distinctions like that.
James McCafferty: it's a nice nice hedging of the words, though a technical shallow recession. It sounds so nice. It's like a soft landing, it's the same language that we're hearing in other places. Alright, so you mentioned consumer confidence, Hart and I really I think, as we've talked you know, outside of this podcast one of our largest concerns about the economy is the consumer. So you, listening to this show you are our largest concern! So let's talk consumer confidence for a minute. Consumer confidence is typically measured through the University of Michigan. They have a fantastic time series on this. You can go on to FRED and if you're not already looking for FRED, go online and explore FRED, it's a great side trip. But you can look at the the time series here on consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiments at an all time low pretty much I mean it's lower than 9/11, it's lower than really, any other time we're going to want to talk about. So Bethany, why is the consumer so spooked? Bank balances are high, the Labor market looks great what gives?
Bethany King: This is a great question and that we're sort of struggling to answer, because things look really good right? The economy, many, many economic variables look good right now but consumers are freaked out and it's hard to pinpoint exactly what that is. I would say, one of the biggest things, is that people just don't know what to expect. They're hearing a mix of different information they have no idea what's going on and that's freaking them out. They're, seeing headlines that we may be in a recession, in a technical recession, we may see a recession in the future. One of the things that's happening is that the stock the stock market is doing very poorly right now, and even though the stock market isn't the economy, people like to think it is and they're freaked out from that. They're freaked out from covid, they're freaked out from war in Ukraine, they're freaked out from a lot of different things; even though the data doesn't really back up being freaked out. Now the real concern is that freaked out consumers can cause a recession, if people start seeing headlines and seeing 9% inflation, they start tightening their belts that's what's going to cause the recession.
Hart Hodges: Bethany, you are talking about the freaked out consumer. I actually have gotten some of these surveys and I didn't know how to how to respond there so poorly written, and so I can put that, I am worried, but there's no where for me to say i'm actually not worried about the Labor market i'm worried about my elected officials or i'm not worried about the price of a lot of things I buy because i'm not i'm not shopping for a used car or jewelry or some of the other things have gone up so much. So it is, I think you're right, I think it's a mix of all of the things that are causing the uncertainty and all the things that are causing a degree of a angst. A lot of which have nothing to do with the Labor market or what's happening at that you know downtown stores so it's. Yeah a lot to tease out of the data or wonder about.
Bethany King: People can be freaked out about all sorts of things that don't have to do with the economy and it affects the economy.
Hart Hodges: Exactly.
James McCafferty: Alright, so along with consumer confidence goes retail right, I mean you guys you're talking about is retail behavior here so Bethany, what do you think about our next retail forecast in light of inflation recession and consumer confidence?
Bethany King: You know, we keep seeing consumer confidence be extremely poor and then retail sales keep going up, I think we finally reached the point where the impacts of inflation, are starting to actually hit people and actually impact their retail spending, so I think what we're going to be seeing next quarter is actually seeing retail falling. Wages are just not keeping up with inflation anymore, people are freaked out. Retail spending is going to be impacted, Finally. I think, but then we have to balance the fact that inflation is high, the price of goods are high, that should boost retail spending.
Hart Hodges: Well, it yeah in a nominal way.
Bethany King: In a nominal way, not adjusting for inflation, we should see retail spending increase, but when we adjust for inflation it might not be so good, it might come down and that's fine and guess what that's the point that was the whole point of raising interest rates that's the whole point of what the Fed is doing is to try to cool down in the economy and so people are going to see retail spending decline and that's the whole point that's what's supposed to happen.
Hart Hodges: Well you mentioned the stock market. If people look at their 401k balances and go oops they don't feel as wealthy and might cut back for that, for that reason, and I think we're reaching the point where were are far enough away from some of the covid stimulus packages that some of that extra money isn't there. So we've, consumers have had a lot of money to spend for the last last couple of years and as that fades retail numbers will come down a little bit as well.
James McCafferty: Hart did I read this week there's two some trillion dollars in savings right now in the US?
Hart Hodges: yeah and I would say not evenly distributed?
James McCafferty: Oh for sure! Right, I mean I mean that's the story of this whole this whole era right now it's there.
Hart Hodges: yeah the PPP money has found a home and it's found a home with with those able to save and invest right? You see it in home prices, you see it in stock prices, well we used to see it in stock prices.
James McCafferty: I think we're up a little bit i'll check my watch I think we're up a little bit today and I saw retail spending the last month came out this morning and it said it was up 1%, but I think that is in nominal not in.
Bethany King: Yeah, that's in nominal.
James McCafferty: Nominal yeah, so given inflation it's hard to know if that's a real growth or just stagnant. And you know Bethany, you said something which I think needs to be put in bold underline something. Not comic sans though because that's tacky. I think the fact is, this is intentional right? I mean this this entire slow down the economy's intentional and it doesn't feel good. It's it's a dip on the roller coaster, it's the slamming on your brakes in the car and you know rolling down the freeway it doesn't feel right, and so I think that that makes more people freakout which lends some thought then that when the feet come off the brakes, as we, as we kind of come out of this, the soft landing, as it were, things should pick up pretty quickly again. So you know the stock market should recover very quickly and we should see a lot of those things kind of pick back up, but that, but the velocity of the economy will be a little bit slower.
Hart Hodges: I think the velocity of that pick up and things like the stock market will be more more modest right? Not like we saw in 2020 with a sharp rebound because of the lack or reduction in PPP money, the need to need to rebuild confidence, so I think it'd be i'm not expecting sharp bounce backs and those things.
Bethany King: Just to underscore that again. So one of the things that i've seen is you have interest rates have increased to combat inflation, one of the instantaneous effects that we see from that is higher mortgage rates. When we saw higher mortgage rates, the price of housing has begun to stabilize. Now people are are concerned that the price of homes is starting to decline, that directly the impact of the feds actions that decline in housing prices that is inflation stabilizing, coming back down that's what that is so, if you see the economy slowing down, that is, the feds action working.
Hart Hodges: yeah Bethany I think that is a good point because we should see home prices come down in certain markets. It's still not a 2007 sort of problem where they feel everywhere. You know you're just going to get more rational behavior. How does my income match up to this House price and that's not a bad thing.
Bethany King: Exactly.
James McCafferty: All right, so talk about housing, that makes me go to construction. so Hart, let me ask you some initial thoughts on construction. Is construction more resilient throughout this. The most recent data we've seen from Castle, and if people are following us on our social media stream we post that out as well. But Castle looks at card key swipe data out of professional offices around the country, they have an index for 10 cities, they've shown a pretty significant drop in returns to office and have maintained, you know 40% and less for a long time. So are we looking at large scale shifts that could impact construction here?
Hart Hodges: Well i'll back up and partially avoid your question. You know, you asked is construction more resilient. Especially in the residential side, yes, but for peculiar reason, and the reason is the construction sector is not as large as it was say 15 years ago. When we had the financial crisis and the real crunch in real estate lot of people left the housing construction market and it never rebounded to where it was. So there is we haven't we haven't been building as many houses over the last decade, plus, so there is a type of demand that will continue, and there is a core group of employees of laborors that will continue, so there is a I think a type of resilience now. There's also uncertainty. What would I do with my office building do I finished building it, what do I do with my existing office building, how do I renovate it, given the uncertainty of where hybrid work is going to take us. You know, James you and i've been talking about the castle numbers to card swipes how many people are going to work on a regular basis, if not daily that's still going to take quite a while to sort out and we've got another another wave of covid hitting right now. You know that makes me soften my stance on how resilient is is construction just given the amount of uncertainty, so I think the core is resilient I don't think there's going to be sharp bounces one direction or the other, just because of all of the uncertainty. I don't know.
James McCafferty: What would you add to this Bethany?
Bethany King: There are still plenty of money to be made in construction. There is a huge number of housing permits and starts have not kept up, so there is plenty of momentum in the construction market so many permits that have yet to become homes and as we've discussed. Housing prices are not coming down quickly, they are settling a little bit, so still plenty of money to be made, I wouldn't be concerned about the construction market.
Hart Hodges: Well, the cost of building materials lumber came back down a little bit, but it's still expensive to build. So I mean builders, have to be very cautious. Like you said, the permits are there, but that's slowing we've been talking about that intentional slowing mean some of those permits sit as permits, instead of starts for a little bit, but that's. I mean, I was trying to describe a core resilience not not an exuberant market and not a depressed one.
James McCafferty: Commodities market really has played a huge role in this, for something that most people really don't pay attention to very much I mean it's for as much talk as we do about gas prices and we've avoided that conversation point here today, but as much as Americans like talk about gas prices. They really don't pay attention to the commodities market and how much of a role that plays I mean, Hart you talked about lumber, we can talk about, you know, the whole supply chain, but regardless, the next thing I want to ask you about is a little bit around that so. we've talked a lot of metrics today we've we've we've shared a lot of different data points and hopefully you've got a note page, as you listen to this that you're you're going to go play online and look at the federal reserve's data sets and look at some data. I am curious about which metrics the two of you kind of really pay attention to more than not. What has your eye, what has your attention? So, Bethany do you want to go first? Do you want to share any kind of what kind of datasets or metrics are you watching?
Bethany King: One thing that I have been looking at, that I don't think we've discussed so far, is the Labor force participation rate.
Hart Hodges: No that's my number you can't...
Bethany King: darn okay well i'm going steal your thunder and I'm going to talk about it. The Labor force participation rate has taken up significantly this quarter and first, we might say, oh that's fantastic lots of people are coming back to the workforce. But that's also kind of a bad thing, because people who left the workforce, because they wanted to retire early because they have kids to take care of. They are being forced back into the Labor force. they didn't want to come back, but now they're being forced to come back because the price of goods has risen. The cost of living has gone up. The value of their assets has gone down. that's what i'm really looking at.
James McCaffery: Hart did you have another one?
Hart Hodges: Well, no, I mean she she stole the one because we hadn't talked about it and it is important. I was gonna say a mix of Labor force participation rate and a couple of other metrics because I want to keep monitoring the health of the Labor market. I might add, wage growth on top of what Bethany was saying, because that's sort of crucial. We started with inflation at the top of the podcast i'll come back to that looking at lots of different measures of inflation and trying to get a sense of When inflation has really peeked,right? Because, there's not much difference right now on the yield of bonds that mature in say two years versus those that return in 20 or 30 years. The jargon, is that the yield curve is incredibly flat. And i'm keeping an eye on on that in terms of what investors are seeing and that's the maybe the money side of how spooked our consumers what are people really thinking about that that possibility of a recession. So for me, gotta keep an eye on a couple of metrics for the for the Labor market and then inflation in the yield curve.
Bethany King: Can I have another one?
James McCafferty: They are free! you can have as many as you like!
Bethany King: i'm gonna have one more so, one thing that I want to look at so as we've been talking about this sort of like technical recession thing. The first thing we're going to see happen is an uptick in unemployment insurance claims that data we it comes out right away. It's, the first thing that's going to go up if we see signs of an actual recession, I guess, right now, a lot of our metrics look good the Labor market looks really good. Really, who cares if GDP goes down if people have jobs it doesn't really matter that much, and the one thing that I keep an eye on is unemployment insurance claims.
Hart Hodges: yeah, that's a good one.
James McCafferty: I noticed, neither of you mentioned, the value of the US dollar so we are on part with the euro, all of a sudden so it's a great time to go to Europe.
Hart Hodges: So we get to talk about a global recession, I mean, it's that it's a double edged sword right that. The real strength of the dollar right now against other currencies is great for certain consumers are in certain trade balances and it makes it awfully hard and other other ways.
James McCafferty: All right, I don't think we get out of this conversation today without bringing up our friend that doesn't seem to get the hint they should leave. The pandemic just keeps coming. The news is filled with Va five stories now. Masks are coming back into fashion, or at least recommendation. For many they're just over it right, I mean I keep reading articles "i'm just over it" like as if that's a that's an out somehow and they're just doing their thing. Cases continue to rise, I saw some some data points last night that hospitalization usages is back up and we're back to being having a nursing shortage which is limiting hospital capacities and Hart, where does the fall, what happens here? I mean what does the fall hold from an economics perspective because of this, I mean not only do we have be a Va-5 to think about at this point but we've got flu and all kinds of stuff that's a waiting in the fall from a seasonal perspective, how to consumers do what this since they're already spooked?
Hart Hodges: I you know, maybe masks become part of the Back to School fall special and then you. Just the new styles that we buy, I don't know. No seriously it's a very curious time right there was an article locally, there was article that Peace Health was really cutting back on the traveling nurses and working back so thinking, they can stabilize in terms of their staffing but boom, here we are with really sharp increases the number of cases, the number of hospitalizations aren't going up as fast, but they're going up at a worrisome rate, I think this ties back to part of Bethany was saying, the freaked out consumer. It's not just inflation or what you read the news about Ukraine or something else, we're still having lockdowns in China, we are about to have some cities, LA at the top of the list, who who may come back with mask mandates, it's frustrating, it's expensive because it's disruptive to businesses in different ways it's another curveball in terms of, you know I thought I had a regular revenue stream, by acting one way and i'm going to have to pivot again. It's economically disruptive. I think the biggest hit is going to be it's one more element or component of declining consumer sentiment.
James McCafferty: I saw 13 counties in Washington state right now it's recommended for indoor mask wearing.
Hart Hodges: Think of the pushback you mentioned that people are just over it. I was thinking about scheduling a lunch with somebody and I said, you know there's a lot of lot of cases, and the response was doesn't bother me i'm fully vaccinated. And then you've go to explain to them well, you know so was my wife, double boosted, and she's at home today! It's not so simple.
James McCafferty: yeah it gets complicated fast.
Hart Hodges: measuring the economic impact of things like camp getting closed early. You know that's not going to show up and some of the metrics that we were highlighting, but it does add to frustration and it does add consumer sentiment.
James McCafferty: Bethany, we create monthly updates, which are available to our online subscribers In fact I think those went up this week, what Should I be looking forward to reading.
Bethany King: Well, we did have monthly updates go out this week. And we're seeing positive signs in the economy. Like we mentioned with consumer sentiments the economy looks good, the only thing that looks bad is inflation that that's, the only thing, everything else is looking great. Our May numbers in particular look fantastic we've got employment growing very quickly really low unemployment insurance claims, all that jazz. I want to also remind people that the real estate index will also be coming out next week. And that's that's a real fun one because there's lots to talk about in the real estate market right now.
James McCafferty: You know I think it's I think it's interesting because throughout the entire pandemic we've had to say there's nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy and we're still kind of saying the same thing, I mean other than yeah there's just there's some sideshows right inflation's high, we have a lot of consumer confidence questions. But fundamentally, things aren't bad things are things are stable and and showing positive traction so it's.
Hart Hodges: we've we've had accelerants and magnifying glasses, but it hasn't changed the structure.
James McCafferty: right for sure. Alright well. This brings a close to this edition of after office hours to the puget sound economic forecaster. We encourage you to follow us on social media to have a front row seat of reading over our shoulder on a daily basis and learn about other ways to connect with us, you can also reach us via our web. You can also reach us via our website cebr.wwu.edu or by email cebr@wwu.edu with questions comments or if you're interested in having a speak at an event. After office hours with the puget sound economic forecaster is a production of the Center for economic and business, research at Western Washington university. We want to give a big shout out to our producer Jill Poon with KDMC, who makes us sound a lot better than we found in the rough cut Thank you Jill for all of your work. To learn more about the topics discussed today, please visit us at economicforecaster.com and subscribe to our quarterly newsletter. Subscribe to after office hours with the Peter sound economic forecaster on Google podcasts, spotify, tune-in, transistor or wherever you listen to podcasts. From all of us at western Washington adversity, have a great day and be sure to do your part, to keep our region in the fast lane.