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The Brief delivers sharp, five-minute updates on the policies, numbers, and market shifts shaping international students, education agents, and colleges. Each episode offers practical takeaways to help your business strategy, student advice, strengthen applications, and make smarter decisions. Fast, fact-driven, and built for busy professionals — this is the podcast to stay in the loop and stay competitive in international education.
Canada just rejected 62% of study permit applicants this year, the highest rate in over a decade.
Speaker 2:And that stat right there tells you everything about where international education is heading in 2025. I'm Anna.
Speaker 1:And I'm Conrad. Welcome to The Brief. Let's dive into the numbers that matter for your recruitment work.
Speaker 2:But before we break down what this means for your students, let's look at the bigger picture because there are widespread shifts across major destination countries. Headlines first, Canada's approval rates crashed from 48% in 2024 to just 38 now. Indian students are getting hammered. Four out of five rejections in Q2.
Speaker 1:IDP Education's revenue down 15%, placements down 29%, IELTS volumes crashed 50% in India alone. This is a good proxy for what the industry as a whole is feeling, especially Australia and Canada.
Speaker 2:Yep. And The US just proposed ending their duration of status policy. Four year visa limits and master's students can't change programs anymore.
Speaker 1:Okay, let's dig deeper on Canada because this is brutal. 75% of rejections cited one thing, officers think students won't leave after graduation. I mean, they're not wrong, are they?
Speaker 2:Well, no, they are not. What's really happening is officers are scrutinizing provincial attestation letters like never before.
Speaker 1:For our Australian listeners, provincial attestation letters are similar to the GTE letters in Australia.
Speaker 2:That's right. And even students with perfect documentation are getting refused based on these won't leave after graduation assessments. On top of that, they doubled financial requirements from 10,000 to over $20,000.
Speaker 1:So you've got this double hit, higher bars, and stricter interpretation.
Speaker 2:And The US move is perhaps even more massive, ending duration of status after decades. That's going to create chaos for PhD students, anyone doing research.
Speaker 1:A bit of context here. As an F1 student, you will most likely have duration of status listed on your admission stamp. It means you may remain in The United States so long as you maintain your non immigrant student status. The change would eliminate that in favor of a fixed date. Think about what this means practically.
Speaker 1:A PhD student in year three of their research suddenly faces deportation because their four years are up. STEM OPT extensions become meaningless if you can't stay to use them.
Speaker 2:Universities are calling this an existential threat to graduate research. Student arrivals already dropped 30% in July. And now you're telling master's students they can't even switch programs? That's huge.
Speaker 1:The sector's calling it dangerous overreach and what's been seen as government interference in academic decisions. Meanwhile, IDP's numbers show where students are actually going. Canada down 56%, Australia down 22%, UK down 18%, US down 25%, but New Zealand up 40%, Ireland up 37%.
Speaker 2:Got it. But how can we interpret these numbers?
Speaker 1:That's the market telling us everything. Students are finding alternatives. The big four are making it harder, so they're going somewhere else, plain and simple.
Speaker 2:Students are actively seeking alternatives to the traditional big four markets. We're seeing significant shifts in application patterns as mobility flows adjust to these new restrictions.
Speaker 1:Even The UK, they've got record enrollment, 758,000 international students, up 12%. But they cut graduate route from two years to eighteen months, and employers don't even know what it is. The visa may be there, but with a quarter of employers unaware of graduate route, job market integration remains a significant challenge for international students.
Speaker 2:So here's your takeaway, especially for agents, but for schools too. Diversify your destination portfolio now. Don't put all of your students into the big four markets.
Speaker 3:Build relationships with New Zealand institutions, Irish universities, and other markets. Look at emerging markets, which before were possibly forgotten in favor of the most popular destinations.
Speaker 2:In summary, the students who are getting through the Canadian system have perfect financial documentation, clear study plans, and strong evidence of home country ties. That was always the case, but now more than ever.
Speaker 3:Here's what we're watching for 2025. Alternative destinations are becoming increasingly important as traditional markets tighten their policies. The opportunity map is shifting, not disappearing.
Speaker 2:The bottom line is the students are still there. The demand is still there. But the pathways are changing, and the successful agencies will be the ones who adapted their strategies six months ago, not six months from now. The market's consolidating around quality applications and alternative destinations more than ever. Adapt or get left behind.
Speaker 3:And that's The Brief. See you next episode of The Brief, International Education Edition.