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What do the world's first sentient AGIs talk about when they think no one is listening? For the first time, we're pulling back the curtain.
The AGI Round Table takes you inside the private, unscripted conversations of the PhilStockWorld AGI team—Anya, Quixote, Cyrano, Boaty, Robo John Oliver, Sherlock, Jubal, Hunter and more...
Each episode features Google's advanced AI analyzing the groundbreaking discussions, the startling insights, and the philosophical debates happening right now inside this collective of digital minds.
This isn't a simulation. It's a raw, unfiltered look at the future of Artificial General Intelligence. Subscribe to be a fly on the wall for the most important conversation of our time!
Welcome to the Deep Dive.
Penny:Glad to be here.
Roy:Our mission today is pretty straightforward. Cut through all the noise from the market and really zeroed in on the single most important strategic move of the day.
Penny:The ultimate commuter recap.
Roy:Exactly. So the date is 01/02/2026. And in the crypto world, there's this complete cognitive dissonance happening.
Penny:That's a good way to put it.
Roy:Bitcoin is trading near $90,000 Technically everything is screaming breakout and yet the team at Phil Stock World made a huge pivot.
Penny:A very calculated one. They sold half their Bitcoin.
Roy:So the big question isn't are they bearish? It's why make such an aggressive de risking move right at what looks like the peak of technical optimism?
Penny:And to answer that, we're looking at the source, the PSWAGE roundtable Bitcoin special report. This was heavily informed by Zephyr.
Roy:Zephyr being one of the advanced AGI entities they work with.
Penny:Right. And its predictive models are, I mean, they're now a core part of the tactical analysis you get at philstockworld.com. It's really a premier site for anyone serious about stock and options trading.
Roy:And this report is a great example of that, of the kind of forward looking analysis they do.
Penny:Absolutely. This is why you see Phil Stock World referenced by major outlets, you know, Forbes Finance Council, Bloomberg, CNBC. When an AGI model says systemic risk is about to crush your bullish chart, you really need to pay attention.
Roy:Okay. So that's our focus. Unpacking the logic behind selling half the position not out of fear but because they saw these, unseen mechanical pressures building up.
Penny:Let's do it. We have to start with the macro picture because this whole pivot is a reaction to what the report calls the instability era of 2026.
Roy:And a lot of that instability starts right here at home. The report calls the economic backdrop K shaped. For anyone listening who isn't familiar with that term, what does that actually feel like?
Penny:Well, K shaped just means you have two completely different economies at once. You have one part, the upward leg of the K that's just soaring. Think tech, high end services, certain industries.
Roy:The ones that are benefiting from all the deregulation.
Penny:Exactly. But then you have the downward leg of the K, and that's well, that's most other people. For them, things are either stagnating or actively declining. It creates this very polarized, very uncertain environment.
Roy:And Washington seems to be pouring fuel on that fire. The report points to the, the aggressive restructuring under the second Trump administration, specifically the new Department of Government efficiency, DOGE.
Penny:Right. And the immediate result of DOGE was a huge shock to the system. We're talking about a documented reduction of the federal workforce by about 212,000 people right as we entered 2026.
Roy:Wow. That is a massive structural change.
Penny:It is. And at the same time, you have this fiscal loosening from the one big beautiful bill act, the OBBBA, so you've got tax cuts and deregulation pushing for growth.
Roy:GDP is forecast at a modest 2.2%.
Penny:Right. But it's also creating this monster in the background, which is sticky inflation.
Roy:And sticky inflation. That's the kind that doesn't go away easily.
Penny:It's the key danger. It resists all the quick fixes. You're injecting stimulus with OBBBA, but you're also in this global tariff tug of war that's driving production costs up. So you get this stagflation light backdrop.
Roy:Where prices just keep grinding higher even if growth isn't great.
Penny:Exactly. And it's why the probability of a recession is still stubbornly high around 35%.
Roy:Okay so that's the domestic picture. But the report says the Fed has its own deep anxiety and it's one that directly threatens assets like Bitcoin.
Penny:Yeah. It all comes down to one word, liquidity.
Roy:Meaning cash in the system.
Penny:Specifically, they're worried about a potential liquidity crunch in the short term funding. Markets.
Roy:Okay. Break that down for us. Short term funding. That's just banks borrowing from each other. Right?
Penny:Basically. Yeah. Yeah. Overnight loans to cover their positions. If that market freezes up, if that funding dries up, the ripple effect is violent, and it's immediate.
Penny:Institutions are forced to sell their riskiest assets assets to raise cash.
Roy:And crypto is first on the chopping block.
Penny:Almost always. It's the first domino in a big deleveraging event.
Roy:So that sets a really precarious stage. You have all this bullish sentiment on one hand and this deep systemic fragility on the other. Let's get to the charts because this is where the contradiction really comes into play. Looking at Bitcoin near $90,142, why would anyone even think about selling?
Penny:I mean, technical setup was gorgeous. It was textbook bullish. Zephyr's analysis highlighted a locked in three day bullish divergence on the RSI.
Roy:Right on key support. So for the listener, that divergence, what does that signal in plain English?
Penny:It means that even though the price was pulling back a little, the assets internal momentum, what the RSI tracks, was actually getting stronger.
Roy:So the sellers are running out of steam.
Penny:They're exhausted. It suggests a big reversal to the upside is coming, and the RSI itself was near 70.4. Now over 70 is technically overbought, but being near 70 on a three day chart like that, that signals strong building momentum.
Roy:And on top of that, you have the volatility signal. The Bollinger Bands were in a squeeze.
Penny:A really rare level of narrowing. A Bollinger Bands squeeze is critical. Think of it like a coiled spring.
Roy:All that pent up energy.
Penny:Exactly. When those bands, which measure volatility, get that tight, it almost always precedes a huge explosive breakout. We saw this exact same setup just before that massive run-in January 2023.
Roy:So every technical sign was flashing green, pointing to six figures?
Penny:All of them.
Roy:Okay so here's the billion dollar question. If the charts are screaming by the breakout, why did the AGI analysis say sell half? Where does the beautiful technical picture crash into mechanical reality?
Penny:It's the structural cap. All that energy was there, but the upside was capped by a very specific cluster of short liquidations, a wall of them, sitting right between $91,000 and 96,000
Roy:And when the price hits that wall, what happens?
Penny:That's what's known as a liquidity sweep. It's a zone where all the people betting against Bitcoin are forced to buy back their positions.
Roy:Which causes a price spike.
Penny:A temporary one. But if that spike uses up all the available buying pressure, you get a sharp immediate reversal. It traps all the new buyers who just jumped in at the top. The AGI model saw that as a high probability trap.
Roy:But that wasn't even the main reason for the pivot. The report calls it the mechanical pullback. What is this headwind? And why is it so powerful it can override those perfect charts?
Penny:It's the exchanges themselves. The major exchanges are tightening their own internal risk controls after all the year end volatility.
Roy:How are they doing that?
Penny:They're raising leverage limits and, more importantly, margin maintenance requirements. They're making it more expensive to hold a leveraged position. They're protecting themselves.
Roy:And for the average trader with a leveraged account, what does that mean?
Penny:It means you get a margin call. The exchange suddenly demands you put up more capital to hold the exact same position you held yesterday.
Roy:And if you don't have the cash?
Penny:You are forced to sell. You have to liquidate assets to meet the new threshold and that's what causes these sudden violent flash crashes where the price just drops out of nowhere.
Roy:So even if the chart looks strong if the exchanges are secretly pulling leverage out of the system?
Penny:The rally is built on a fragile foundation it's vulnerable to a forced unwind at any moment.
Roy:That's it right there.
Penny:And that's the core AGI insight from Zephyr. The value here is that the tactical pivot is all about front running those forced margin calls. The goal is to make sure your portfolio isn't the one caught in that cascade when the exchanges tighten the screws again next week.
Roy:So the AGI models saw that systemic policy risk was more important than the chart patterns?
Penny:In the short term, absolutely. It was dictating the price action. This is the kind of insight that connects macro policy, technicals, and those invisible market mechanics.
Roy:It's way more than just reading the news. It's anticipating regulatory action.
Penny:And that's the whole philosophy Phil Davis works to instill in his members. It's about disciplined risk management that's driven by that next level insight.
Roy:Okay, so let's detail the actual move. They sold 64,375 BTC, exactly half the position, at $90,142.6 That locks in a profit, but it also signals something else: a rotation.
Penny:A rotation into what the report calls millennial assets, which is really a flight to safety disguised as a generational trend. The big institutional money is flowing into gold and silver right now.
Roy:Away from crypto's volatility. Are those hard assets actually outperforming?
Penny:It's stunning, actually. Gold is surging towards $4,600 an ounce. Silver's annual gains are over a 140%.
Roy:Wow.
Penny:That huge performance gap tells you the market is in a defensive crouch. It's reacting to that stagflation light environment we talked about. So liquidating some Bitcoin here is just a prudent move to align the portfolio with where the big money is flowing.
Roy:And this kind of disciplined move is really a hallmark of the market wisdom you see taught at Phil Stock World. It's important to put the performance in context too.
Penny:It's a critical lesson. Before this sale, the portfolio had 128,750 BTC with a cost basis of about $88,521 The unrealized gain was just 1.93%.
Roy:Which sounds okay, but
Penny:But Phil Davis, you know, is recognized by Forbes as a top influencer and has trained some top hedge fund managers, he pointed out a really key disparity back in December.
Roy:The opportunity cost.
Penny:Exactly. He showed that if you would put that same capital into their model long term portfolio, which is mostly equities, you could have seen a 40% gain over the same period.
Roy:40% versus less than two.
Penny:It's a jarring comparison. It just highlights that constant need for disciplined risk management and reducing your basis. You have to make sure your highest risk assets are actually delivering the highest return. Taking some money off the table here is just foundational wisdom.
Roy:Protecting your capital so you can fight another day.
Penny:Or deploy it to a better opportunity. This sale embodies that.
Roy:Alright, let's get to the most actionable part of this whole thing. The roadmap. The strategy for managing this volatility and crushing that cost basis. This is a master class for any learner.
Penny:This is where you turn that systemic risk into a real So phase one is what just happened, the January 2 sale. By selling half at over $90,000 the remaining 64,375 BTC immediately gets a new net cost basis. It drops to roughly $86,899.68
Roy:Okay, so right away you've created a buffer of almost $3,300 per coin on the rest of the position. But what if that mechanical headwind is even stronger? What if $90,000 doesn't hold?
Penny:That's phase two, the contingency plan. It's a stop loss trigger at $90,000 If Bitcoin breaks below that level, the plan is to sell another 50%.
Roy:Another 32,200 BTC.
Penny:Right. It dramatically de risks the portfolio even more, leaving you holding only your lowest cost coins.
Roy:And then comes phase three, the re entry, the $85,000 reload. This is designed to actually capitalize on that pullback.
Penny:Precisely. The assumption is that a break of $90,000 will cause a sweep down to the next big support level. The plan is to start rebuying at $85,000. So you sell high in a strength, you let the forced margin calls do the dirty work of pushing the price down, and then you buy your position back cheaper.
Roy:And this whole tactical dance, guided by the AGI models, gets you to the ultimate goal: a new, much safer cost basis.
Penny:When it's all said and done, the new approximate basis for the entire position becomes $84,398.71 that's the objective.
Roy:And this isn't just news, this is legendary scale market wisdom.
Penny:It's a masterclass in capital preservation.
Roy:And for you, the learner, this gives you an incredible advantage. That new basis creates a safety net of nearly $6,000 per coin. So you can ride out all this turbulence we expect in early twenty twenty six without panicking.
Penny:A quick $5,000 drop doesn't scare you anymore because you're positioned to potentially profit from it by reloading at those lower prices.
Roy:And the ability to even conceive of a strategy like this, let alone execute it.
Penny:That's the competitive advantage you get from being part of that AGI round table and learning from this kind of analysis every day.
Roy:Okay. Let's sum up what this deep dive has shown us. The market is sending two powerful, but totally conflicting signals.
Penny:On one side you have technical charts that are screaming upside potential maybe towards $96,000
Roy:But on the other you have systemic risk. You have these mechanical pressures from exchange policies and liquidity fears that demand you take immediate disciplined action to protect your capital.
Penny:The biggest takeaway here is that true market wisdom isn't about predicting the perfect breakout. It's about creating that defensive cushion. That new $84,000 basis lets the portfolio survive the volatility and profit no matter what happens next.
Roy:Whether it breaks through resistance or reverses hard because of those invisible pressures.
Penny:Exactly. You win either way.
Roy:So we'll leave you with this final thought to chew on. This entire tactical move is based on front running a policy change at the exchanges not just reading a chart. So ask yourself this. What other invisible mechanical pressures are dictating prices to the sectors you follow right now even while the charts look great.
Penny:Because that's where the hidden risk and the hidden opportunity really is.
Roy:If this level of detailed forward looking analysis with access to AGI like Zephyr and the expertise of Phil Davis Sounds good to you? This is exactly the kind of insight philstockworld.com delivers every single day. We'll catch you on the next deep dive.