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Smart people talking about the theory, analysis, and practice of Canadian politics. Guests include political scientists, pollsters, journalists, and insiders. More thoughtful journalism from Energi Media.
Welcome to episode 7 of the political talks podcast. I'm journalist, Markham Hisler. According to a recent Angus Reid poll, Danielle Smith of Alberta is the 4th most popular Canadian premier with an approval rating of 45%, but she also has a strong disapproval rating of 39% with 11% moderately disapproving. Clearly, there's an opportunity for new NDP leader, Naheed Menchie, to make inroads before the expected 2027 election. The former Calgary mayor is a very different politician from outgoing NDP leader, Rachel Notley.
Markham:Will it be enough to unseat the poll rising Smith and the UCP? Will Alberta politics change with a new NDP leader? To to discuss the ever interesting and entertaining world of politics in the Wildrose province, I'm joined by political scientist Duane Bratt of Mount Royal University in Calgary. So welcome to political talks, Duane.
Duane:Happy to be here, Markham.
Markham:This is, I have to say, Nenshi's campaign was fascinating. I took a little shot at him, because he refused to come on, my other podcast, Energy Talks, and talk about his, energy and climate ideas. So the other 3 candidates, and he for leadership did. And I thought, I know I know why he did. He was running a a front runners campaign, and he he didn't wanna, you know, he didn't want any criticism, nothing controversial.
Markham:Fair enough, but he got a little criticism for that. But what's your take as a political scientist on the way he ran his campaign?
Duane:I think the biggest, and I would agree with you on that, is to contrast the way he ran for the 2024 NDP leadership versus how he ran for the 2010 mayor race. That was his 1st mayor's race. At that time, he came into the race largely unknown. You know, this this tweeting academic who'd done some, you know, political commentary. And he developed massive policy documents.
Duane:And he talked policy, and he said in in complete sentences, complete paragraphs. And and that was his entree into politics. And he had to do that because he couldn't rely on name recognition or win ability or anything like that, so he separated himself as the policy guy. Fast forward to 2024, it was the exact opposite. There was hardly little, if any, policy in the framework, and it was all about name recognition and winnability.
Duane:And I think that reflects the difference, in him between 2010 and and 2024 and and his stature in the in the province, that he didn't need to do that. Instead, you know, he tried to be, not just a front runner status, but bigger than that.
Markham:Yeah. He had a fascinating, approach that was very different than his, his opponents. And also, it was aimed clearly at Danielle Smith. That that was he took her on in all kinds of
Duane:Well and that's the other element here is it's not just going to be a fight between 2 leaders of 2 different political parties. There's a very long history between the 2 of them, and you really saw that in what I think was an early campaign speech by NINCI in the aftermath of Smith's TV address about, trans rights and and basically removing trans rights. And there was a large pro trans rally, in Calgary and that she spoke at, And he felt a sense and said a sense of betrayal by Smith on this, that this was not the Daniel Smith he he knew, and in particular, talked about dealing with a a child saying you don't have to worry about the premium. She's not gonna go down this this road. So this is not just political.
Duane:This is personal. They do know the buttons to push on each other, and that's why this makes it, even more interesting than than previous battles. I will say the caliber of leaders and the skill set of leaders that we've seen in Alberta over the last couple years has has been remarkable. You know, from from Jason Kenny to Rachel Notley to Daniel Smith and to head Nenshi. I I think it puts to shame a lot of the other provinces.
Markham:One of the things I found it very interesting about his campaign is his ability to tug at heartstrings. You remember the, I I think, I would say famous now, that video that he released announcing his campaign and talking about how much Alberta meant to him and how, you know, Smith had is dismantling that Alberta. I mean, it was really, it was professionally done, and it was he connected with his viewers very emotionally, and that was the feedback I got from folks on my social media accounts.
Duane:It was a very well crafted, campaign. Even the late entry into it, was was fascinating in the sense that they just tease people and tease people, but also mobilize. So in the first couple days, they were able to sell tens of 1,000 of of memberships because they had laid the groundwork. And poor Kathleen Gamm, the the former justice minister scandal free justice minister. That's important to say because, that's unusual in Alberta.
Duane:She opens up. She's one of the first ten for the race. She's got a large number of endorsements. She's got a team of NDP, MLAs, and the questions are all about entering the race. Right?
Duane:And that's where the buzz was. And, obviously, Nenshi has recognition in Calgary, but he also has recognition in Edmonton. And, and he played to that quite well so much so that Reki Poncelli, who is going to be, if she's not already one of the stars of the NDP, and I believe a future leader of the NDP, recognized this and quickly moved to pull out of the race and endorse Nancy and say she saw the membership numbers in the span of a couple days, realized there was no path to victory, and then threw her weight and support, behind. And so it was a very well crafted campaign with without a doubt. Many of the people involved were those who were associated with his his mayoral run, but Zane Belgyi in particular.
Duane:Zane had worked with Nenshi in the in the mayor campaigns, but he was also, you know, the the head Calgary guy for the NDP in May of 2023. So they really were bridging purple and orange.
Markham:I wanted to follow-up on your comments about the about Kathleen Ganley. And, I interviewed her and 2 of her competitors. Sorry. Jody, Callahoo Stonehouse and, Sarah Hoffman. And I have to say, all we've talked about energy issues, and all 3 of them were smart, whip smart
Duane:Yep.
Markham:Articulate, well informed, and had very good policy ideas. And I was impressed with the caliber of their the candidates. And I have to say here, Gil McGowan, who withdrew before I began the interviews, the leader of the, sort of the head of the Alberta Federation of Labor, who full disclosure, AFL has been a client of ours for probably better part of a decade, so I know Gil quite well. He brought a lot of really substantive ideas to his campaign around energy and economic development. And I thought from an ideas point of view, I was impressed.
Markham:I I I don't remember a a campaign of any kind that had that kind of, I don't know, policy, to it.
Duane:Well and I'll just give you an illustration. I had coffee with with Ganley early on in the campaign just after she announced. And we had this long, fulsome discussion, about the role that she had to play around the legalization of marijuana And and basically said the federal government took the easy road out. They just decriminalized it, but it was up to the provinces to deal with all the other mechanisms of how to do it. And the level of of detail in that, it it's a story that's not well known, and and it would probably bore most people, but it illustrated the the depth of her of her policy experience.
Duane:She continues to be around. I expect her to play an important role, in the team, as, Jody, Stonehouse as well. Who's noticeable has been Sarah Hoffman. She hasn't said much of anything since that leadership race. And, we'll have to see if she stays in the the NDP.
Duane:There's a lot of rumors about her running for mayor of Edmonton, for example. And so, it was a pretty devastating loss, I think, for Hoffman more than it was for Ganley given the relationship Hoffman had, with Notley, given the very, very strong roots in the NDP that Sarah Hoffman had. And I think she viewed, probably rightly so, that Nancy was an interloper. Right? He hadn't been there in the tough days.
Duane:He was coming in at the end. But the fact that he had such an overwhelming victory showed that this wasn't about the core NDP and the loyalty of the NDP, and you had to be a member for 20 years. This was about winnability. And, and that's what I think Nedji demonstrated. And and quite frankly, the core NDP people should be very thankful that he entered the race.
Duane:Imagine a contrary view where he decides he's kicked the tires, he's not gonna do it, and either Hoffman or Ganley wins the race, and they have sold 18,000 memberships. That does not put them in the same position that what Nenshi did with with well over 80,000 and the voter turnout. There was a huge drop in the UCP leadership race in 2022 between the membership sold and those that voted, Not in this case. It was a very high, mobilization, and that, I think, spoke again of of Velgi and and, and Chima that, they were they were looking past the NDP leadership race and the general election. The best way of doing that was to have this overwhelming victory with large numbers.
Markham:Well, we should point out that, part of Sarah Hopkins' disappointment was the fact I I think I was told that she was kind of the the the stab NDP establishments candidate. She was, you know, it was Rachel's party, and that was she was the the favorite, and she finished behind gambling. She finished 3rd.
Duane:Yeah.
Markham:You know? So I can understand why she might be a little disappointed. Now let's talk about that. Can Nenshi will Nenshi, reshape the NDP? And I gather from your comments, he already has begun.
Duane:He he already has, and I would say that reshaping began with Rachel Notley. I think Rachel Notley was modernizing the party, moderating the party, probably much more so than than Sarah Hoffman would have done or probably liked. There's no way that a guy like Nancy would have entered the race if that party hadn't already been transformed, by by Notley in in the time period. And not just winning the election in 2015, but how close they were to winning in 2023. And even the 2019 election where they were, defeated and defeated quite handily, they weren't wiped out.
Duane:I mean, the history of Alberta elections is we elect a party who's never been in government before. They govern for a while, and then we kick them out, and you never hear from them again. You know, the progressive conservatives packed up shop, you know, within 2 years of losing the 2015 election. Social credit kept trying, but were basically decimated within 5 years. The United Farmers of Alberta, gone.
Duane:The Liberals, gone. The NDP remains here. Even after 2019 and especially after 2023. So it's a very different party system, political dynamic that that Nedji is is walking into. He didn't shape that.
Duane:He is taking advantage of that.
Markham:I have a question that relates to my work as an energy journalist because, obviously, Alberta is my focus, and, I know a a lot about the issues that Danielle Smith talks about all the time, whether it'd be federal policies as they relate to Alberta or whether they're her government's policies or some of the, you know, associated issues like, you know, regulators. And I'm appalled all the time by the misinformation that comes out of the premier's office, how to offer her, you know, her Twitter account and what have you. Notley never took advantage, never called her to account on that. It was but then she has the intellectual chops. He was he was got a master's degree, and he was a a McKinsey consultant before he, became mayor.
Markham:I mean, he he knows this stuff.
Duane:His And so does Motley. I mean, that was the interesting part. I mean, she was premier of this province for 4 years. She knew it, and and you're right, couldn't really penetrate that. I think part of it is they got beat up so badly by the energy sector in her time in government.
Duane:She didn't wanna talk about those issues at all. Well, now you have a fresh face coming in, who does not shy away from from a debate.
Markham:So he can go toe to toe with Smith on things like, you know, power sector market reform or transmission planning or
Duane:Yep.
Markham:You know, all of that. Are we gonna see that reflected in, you know, sort of public discussion, and disagreement between them in,
Duane:like, a number of years? Yet, But it's still early days. We're talking. He wins the leadership, and then we roll in the stampede. Now we're rolling into summer.
Duane:So Smith took holidays just before the stampede, rightly so. I mean, those are draining for politicians and then go straight to a 1st minister's meeting. So she knew based on her calendar, she needed to rest up before that. And then she couldn't have done that because he just had won the leadership rate. I my assumption is if he's not on holidays right now, he's definitely downscaling.
Duane:So let's see what happens come come fall. I will also say how quickly the attacks came from the UCP. I was actually in Lethbridge a couple days after Nenshi's leadership race to talk about the NDP leadership race. And the last two slides, I was talking about some of the challenges facing Nenshi, and one of those challenges is UCP attacks. Then, you know, the talk's over mingling, get into my car, and the phone's ringing because the first set of attack ads had come out.
Duane:And so, I thought he handled those quite well. That's it. Smith later said, you know, she would love to debate on any topic. He's just not interested in doing so. I don't think that's the case.
Duane:I think some of it is is timing. 3 years is a long time to be an opposition. I have a feeling they'll be going toe to toe, but but probably come September.
Markham:Yeah. We for, non Alberta and non Canadian listeners of this podcast, Alberta gets rolled up and put to bed, for the summer. Everybody, buggers off and and goes and has a vacation as they should. Right? Fair enough.
Markham:So you'd you know not to do business in Alberta during the July and particularly July.
Duane:After stampede.
Markham:After stampede. That's just
Duane:you. Political stuff that goes on during the stamp.
Markham:And business stuff. The energy sector is well represented there. Well, let's talk about I'm very curious about because as long as I've we moved to, Alberta and to Calgary in 2000. So for 25 years and more, I've been watching Alberta politics, and, invariably, it comes back to what do the cities do? What does rural Alberta do?
Markham:What do the big cities do? What do the smaller cities do? And what's your take on Nenshi's I mean, he was he was mayor in in Calgary for 11 or 12 years.
Duane:Yeah.
Markham:And some say say that's an advantage, and some say it's a disadvantage. What's your take?
Duane:Well, there there's a couple things at play here. There is a group that believes he was the worst mayor in Canadian history, in Calgary history. These are people who voted against him in 2010, voted against him in 2013, voted against him in 2017, and wished he'd run-in 2021 so they could vote against him once again. And yet he beat them every time. He was unpopular in 2021, but now he's had time to reengage.
Duane:But there's also a a part of the city that really loves NHTSA. So that's the Calgary situation. And, as much as the UCP may want to and they've done it with with voters, you know, in in some of their ads saying, you know, what a disaster he was as as mayor, my guess is those were people who never voted for him in the in the first place. I I So that's Calgary.
Markham:Yeah. Well, I still wanna I wanna stay with Calgary for a second because the one of the my first impressions of Calgary was it has this reputation of being the bastion of conservatism. But when you live there, it's not like that at all. No. It's very so does that give him an advantage that he can mobilize centrist progressive kinds of voters who might have stayed home.
Markham:You know, there are provincial elections.
Duane:Yeah. He he already did, with with the why he focused on purple. Right? So for viewers outside of Calgary or or, Alberta, he chose purple as his color because it was a mixture of red and blue. Right?
Duane:And he he operate himself as a as a centrist. And there are aspects, I think, where he drifted a lot more to the red than, than the blue, but that became his his brand that he could promote both. And and it's been interesting to see the attacks that conservatives have been making about him since he won the leadership by bringing up well, he was a McKinsey consultant. You know? So how dare the NDP have that?
Duane:Somehow, that was horrible, and he was the most left wing person ever. Well, it's tough to put those two ideas in the same sentence. So they're still trying to focus on where their attacks, should should be. Now being a Calgary mayor doesn't normally help you outside of Cal. Ralph Klein had trouble in Edmonton.
Duane:His first election in 1993. He didn't win a single seat in in Edmonton. He had trouble making inroads. Nenshi's in a bit different category, though. Not only did he hold some pretty big rallies in Edmonton for a former Calgary mayor, but I don't think Edmonton is about to abandon, the NDP and go conservative, and basically say we can't have a Calgarian running the province.
Duane:We'd rather have someone from High River. Right? So I I don't think that's gonna be a problem. Then we get to rural Elba. Let's be clear.
Duane:No NDP leader is gonna do well in rural Albert. And it doesn't matter if it's Naheed Nenshi or Rachel Notley won some seats. She actually grew up in in peace country, so has a bit of that instinct in her. But, no, that's not where they're they're going to end. Where he needs to come up with a strategy is small cities and what I call rural suburban.
Duane:So small cities, Grand Prairie, Fort McMurray, Red Deer, Lethbridge Medicine, half. Two seats in each. That's 10 seats. In the 2023 election, they won 1. They won 1 of those seats.
Duane:The rural suburban riding so we're not talking about Saint Albert. We're talking about Sherwood Park and a rural community. We're talking about Chestermere, Strathmore. We're talking about Airdrie and rural communities. I calculate those as being another 10, and they won 1.
Duane:So that's 20 seats of which the NDP won 2 of them in election that they lost by 4 or 5 seats. So that's where he needs to focus. They're not gonna win. They're not gonna win Taber. But Red Deer, Leopold Gees, Fort McMurray, Sherwood Park, Airdrie, that's where they need to make inroads, and that's where I'm gonna be curious to see on the mobilization that the NDP makes on that.
Markham:You had an you had an interesting tweet the other day about and you brought up in passing, I guess, Shannon Phillips, a former environment minister under Notley Yeah. Who has been who I I don't know what we would call it. What did the Lethbridge police stalk her? Did
Duane:they, it was a terrorist attack. Stalking her. Yeah. It was it was political intimidation. It was stalking.
Duane:It was absolutely horrendous behavior. Not only did they not protect her from pretty deranged individuals, but they themselves were part of the intimidation. Whether that was following her, whether that was searching her on on police computers. And, unfortunately, there there's been some minor punishment, but largely thrown, thrown away. It is an appalling story for any politician.
Markham:What of course. Shannon Phillips announced she that she's stepping down, from her seat in Lethbridge. Does that put all of Lethbridge in play, or, is maybe the NDP are in danger of losing her seat?
Duane:I don't think so. For first of all, there there was some speculation about Nancy running in Lethbridge. That that's not gonna happen. He is going to run in in Calgary. The NDP was portraying Smith as being a carpetbagger by the fact she lives in High River and yet ran in Brooks and induced an MLA, to resign, who then somehow got a job in the premier's office.
Duane:Shannon Phillips won that in 2015 largely because of Shannon Phillips. And but she's maintained that winning in 2019 and 2023. But there always has been a strong progressive element in the in the city of Lethbridge. There is, after all, a university there. They really believed that they were gonna win the the second seat, and they did not.
Duane:But, I I have a feeling the the NDP will hold on to that riding in in Lethbridge, and they're gonna continue to fight to win the to the other one.
Markham:So Menchie runs in in Calgary. And, what does he have to do to take more seats in Calgary? Because I I I have argued for years that you can't win in Calgary unless you have an energy message. You've gotta you've gotta address that issue, and not only didn't. She didn't in 2019.
Markham:She didn't in 2023. Does then she do something different, or is it just he runs on his
Duane:have to see. They did they won a majority of seats in Calgary in 2023. They won 14 compared to the UCP's 12th. That is quite obviously an unusual, But and that was without an energy man. Right?
Duane:That was largely criticism of of Smith. I think what Nenshi has to do is hold the existing seats he's got, not necessarily make additional inroads where, again, I think he has to make the inroads is outside of Calcutta, the small cities and the and the rural suburban ridings. If he can keep the 14, that that puts them on a greater path. And and the reason I say that is if they had won 18 seats, they still would have been on the opposition benches. Right?
Duane:They've gotta go outside of Calgary, but they have to hold what they've got here. And and the question is, how do they go about doing that? And I wanna talk about Smith a bit here and also tie it into some of her attacks on on Nenshi. If if the election was held today, Smith wins another majority government. There are certain policy areas where she is very vulnerable, whether that's dealing with municipalities, whether that's the pension, whether that is the betrayal on tax cuts, a whole host of things.
Duane:None of that seems to matter because the one big thing she is fixated on is attacking Trudeau and largely on energy policy. Trudeau and Debo, Debo and Trudeau over and over and over again. And this is not going to surprise anyone. Neither of those 2 men are very popular either in Calgary or in Alberta or in Canada. So what happens in a year's time when they're gone?
Duane:That's gonna make it very tough for Smith. Not only that, their attack ads were basically saying, Nenshi is Trudeau's choice. K? And they this worked with Notley. You know, other premiers have been trying to tie their opposition leaders to Trudeau.
Duane:Everything's Trudeau. Okay? And they show pictures of the deals that Vinci made with Trudeau when he was mayor, and they ignore he made similar deals with with Stephen Harper. But, again, what happens when Trudeau's not on? Then she doesn't have that foil.
Duane:Then maybe people start looking at provincial policies instead of federal policies. And are people gonna remember oh, yeah. In 2027. I remember back in 2024, Nenshi was so tied to Trudeau. We hated Trudeau then.
Duane:We can't vote for Nenshi 3 years later. I'm not sure that was a good strategy long term as opposed to the moment in time.
Markham:It seems to me, Dwayne, that in the 2 years that, that Smith has been premier, she has made, a number of polarizing kinds of comments and policies, And there's a backlash, I would say, and I think that's reflected in the popularity numbers that I I quoted during my introduction where, you know, essentially 50% of people are either, strongly or moderately dis disapprove of her job. And that seems to be a real Achilles heel for her. It would seem like that to me anyway.
Duane:It is longer run, but standing up to Ottawa is probably where she is the strongest, where she is seen as being the strongest. Well, is she going to stand up to Napoleon like she stood up to Trudeau, or is she gonna be in lockstep? It is difficult to be a conservative premier in Alberta when there's a conservative prime minister. Ask Jim Prentice in 2015 how tough it was when Harper was in Ottawa and he was in Edmonton. And even in the, the Getty years, it was it was tough with Mulrooney there.
Duane:So what happened so that Trudeau thing, that standing up to Ottawa, which is her playbook, Monday through Sunday. What happens when she can't go to that playbook? So affordability. She has made great communication that affordability is all Trudeau's fault. Not mentioning that she skipped the tax cut that she promised during the election campaign that was promised number 1, and it ignores the reinstatement of the provincial gas tax.
Duane:None of that seems to matter. What seems to matter is the federal carbon tax, and that's why there's an affordability issue. So she's been very good at communicating that. That's gonna be much tougher under a polyap government.
Markham:So is it fair to say, Dwayne, that, there's another year where she's got a fair advantage and, that'll color her her sparring with Vinci. But Yeah. If, as the poll suggest, Poliyev and the and the Convenience conservative party are gonna win in next year's federal election, that leaves her 2 years of being vulnerable, and that could be the that's the key right there.
Duane:Yeah. I I I think so. And so if I'm Nenshi, there's no need to get into the legislature right away. Right? Opposition parties tend to like the legislature.
Duane:It's when they get to hold the government to account, but he'd be better off touring the province, than he would be sitting in the in the legislature. This isn't like being the premier. Smith had to get in the legislature. He's the opposition leader. He doesn't have to be there.
Duane:So there's no rush. We're still it's it's in the early days, but even come fall, I think things are gonna be very, very different.
Markham:Well, we're gonna watch that with a lot of interest, Dwayne, and we'll have you back, sometime, maybe in the fall or winter to see, how things have changed. Thank you very much for this.
Duane:Okay. We'll see you, Mark.