Subscribe
Share
Share
Embed
Thinking about buying your first home but overwhelmed by mortgage news, rising rates, and confusing headlines? The Mortgage Research Network Podcast is your no-fluff, data-backed guide to the housing market. We break down the latest trends, stories, and research from MortgageResearch.com into simple, clear insights you can actually use. Hosted with first-time buyers in mind, each episode helps you understand what’s happening in the market and how to use that knowledge to make smarter decisions, from locking in a great rate to choosing the right time to buy. Empowering you with the facts, confidence, and tools to become a homeowner one episode at a time.
Welcome to the Mortgage Research Network Podcast. We bring you the latest mortgage and real estate news 3 times a week. The audio is AI generated, but content is fact-checked by me, Tim Lucas, editor of MortgageResearch.com and a former mortgage professional. And with me is Craig Berry, a mortgage originator who has been in the business a couple decades now. Craig, everyone is wondering what rates will look like next year. Mortgage rates took homebuyers for quite a ride in '25. Eclipsing 7% early in the year, the 30-year fixed rate sank to 6.17% by late-October according to Freddie Mac. Looking at where we're headed in 2026, the major agencies are predicting that there won't be much movement. Fannie Mae's saying just below 6%, NAR's at 6.1%, and the MBA's predicting 6.4%. Averaging five major agencies gets you to about 6.2%, about where we are now.
Mortgage experts agree. We won't see any significant rate drops, but that might be a good thing for the market.
And homebuyers should know that next year's rates won't be tied directly to Fed decisions like most people think. The market's pricing off the 10-year Treasury yield, so it's more about future expectations than current Fed moves.
Predicting mortgage trends is already a difficult practice, but it’s harder now than ever.
Right. Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage in New York described the situation pretty accurately. She said Everyone expected upper-5% to low-6% rates this year, and that’s not how things ended up. With everything happening in the economy, the world, and in Washington, it’s incredibly difficult to make a clear prediction." Kyle McCort, an Ohio loan officer, says In the near term, I think there’s more risk of rates going up than going down. He also emphasized that we don't really want rates in the 2-3% range. First... that was caused by a global catastrophe. Second, that would just juice home prices, making them even further out of reach.
So what are experts saying buyers should do in this environment?
Well, they're actually giving some pretty practical advice. Instead of waiting for perfect conditions, they're suggesting focusing on the home price rather than the rate, because you can always refinance later. And get this - they're pointing out that obsessing over a $70 increase in monthly mortgage payments while buying a $1,000 iPhone every year might be missing the forest for the trees.
That's such a powerful way to frame it. And I hear there are some creative financing options available too.
Exactly! Like these 2-1 buydowns where if your rate starts at six point two five percent, you're paying four point two five percent the first year and five point two five the second year. Plus, FHA loans are getting approved more often now that the market's cooled off, and there are special non-QM loans for self-employed people.
Sounds like we're moving toward what one expert called a "return to sanity" in the housing market.
That's right - no more of these artificially low rates driving prices through the roof. Instead, we're looking at a more stable, predictable market. Though "stable" is relative when you're dealing with global economic uncertainty and ongoing supply challenges.
Looking at all this data and expert insight, it seems like 2026 might not bring dramatically lower rates, but maybe something more valuable.
Exactly - a more balanced, rational market. And you know what? That might be worth more than a slightly lower interest rate. After all, people don't move because of interest rates. They move because life happens. Whether it's a growing family, a job change, or just needing a different living situation, those fundamental reasons for buying a home aren't going away.
That's about all the time we have for this topic, but we go into even more detail on the site. For more, search 2026 mortgage rates forecast at Mortgage research.com. We'll see you next time on the Mortgage Research Network Podcast.