Hong Kong Derby Barrier Draw Reaction: Invincible Ibis Gets the Perfect Gate

In a wide-open 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby, the barrier draw could shape everything.

Michael Cox and David Morgan break down the key takeaways from the draw, the likely speed map and which runners were helped or hurt most heading into Sunday’s big race at Sha Tin.

They discuss why Invincible Ibis looks a major beneficiary from barrier three, what the wide gates mean for Numbers and Dazzling Fit, and whether Little Paradise can overcome both the draw and his temperament concerns. 

They also assess the prospects of Stormy Grove, Patch Of Cosmo, Sagacious Life and Seraph Gabriel in a Derby with no clear standout.

Plus, David previews his feature on young apprentice Jack Callan, and there’s a quick look ahead to Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill.

What is Idol Horse News Desk?

The latest in world horse racing news from the journalists at Idol Horse.

Idol Horse News Desk Podcast
Episode: Hong Kong Derby Barrier Draw Reaction: Invincible Ibis Gets the Perfect Gate

[00:00] Michael Cox:
In a Hong Kong Derby this open, the barrier draw was always going to matter. No standout, no obvious pecking order, and now, with Sunday closing in, the speed map becomes everything. Who gets the run, who gets cover, who gets trapped wide, and whose Derby hope got a whole lot harder the moment the barrier draw came out? This is the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast. It’s March 19.

[00:28] Michael Cox:
This is the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast. I’m Idol Horse editor Michael Cox. Today I’m joined by Idol Horse chief journalist David Morgan. We’re reacting to the barrier draw for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby. It already looked like a wide-open Derby. It lacked a real clear standout, and today’s barrier draw promised to provide some clarity. I think it did.

We’re going to run through a couple of the key chances, and we’re going to start with the horse that drew barrier three. It’s the Mark Newnham-trained Invincible Ibis, who probably benefited the most from today’s draw. David, what did you make of Invincible Ibis drawing barrier three?

[01:11] David Morgan:
I think, like you said, it’s a huge positive for the horse. Look as well, the trainer is coming off that five-timer midweek at Happy Valley, the stable’s in red-hot form, the horse has had this great prep, and now he’s got that plum draw. He should just be able to — I mean, Hugh Bowman, we saw in the Classic Cup how he just settled him on the inside. I think Invincible Ibis won’t have to do a lot of work from there. He can take the position that he wants, go with the flow, get that rhythm, and just let the race unfold. I think it’s a cracking good draw for him.

[01:48] Michael Cox:
I was at the draw today. I spoke to a bunch of connections. Mark Newnham described the draw as ideal, and it wasn’t just where Invincible Ibis is drawn. We’ll get to some of the other contenders soon, but it was also where some of his key rivals have drawn — namely Little Paradise, barrier 10, and Numbers, the horse that may be the only designated real leader in the race, drawing barrier 13 out of 14.

It is a short run to the first turn there and that barrier should create pressure from the outside. As Mark himself put it, a lot of those horses are going to have to make a decision to go forward or back. Hugh Bowman gets the benefit of seeing how things play out. He can be wherever the horse is comfortable, and that’s just what you want stepping up to 2000 metres for the first time.

[02:41] David Morgan:
Absolutely. And on the flip side of that, you’ve got Derek Leung on Numbers, drawn 13, who’s got to make that decision too — most likely to go forward. I can’t really see him doing anything other than that. Like you say, that turn comes pretty quickly. The thing that niggles me is this: I’ve really liked Numbers as a Derby prospect, but when you’re looking at the Classic Cup, he was drawn 11 and he had that straight run to get forward and do what he needed to do and get the position in front.

This is a different kettle of fish, drawn 13. He’s got to get to where he wants to be before he gets to that turn. There’s pressure on that wasn’t there in the Classic Cup, and he couldn’t win the Classic Cup. So that’s just a little niggle in my mind now that we’ve got this different set-up, different kind of race, and it’s actually a more difficult task for the horse and for the jockey.

[03:28] Michael Cox:
I think it’s a really fascinating set-up because you’ve got a couple of 1400-metre horses stepping up to 2000 — Junior Pride and Emblazon. They’re not necessarily leaders, but their natural speed could take them into a prominent spot. They could sense a lack of speed and want to be there as well.

Numbers maybe gets across pretty cheap. Maybe we’re discounting him. He dropped to number five in the Idol Horse Hong Kong Derby power rankings — go to IdolHorse.com to check them out, comments on every runner there from the team. Maybe he gets there cheaper than we thought. You look across that field — who else wants to dig up underneath him and maybe hold that spot?

[04:15] David Morgan:
Yeah, I mean, look, Emblazon’s a horse that we know has got that early pace and can get to that position if he wants to. It’s whether they choose to do that from gate eight on Emblazon. The other horse that’s actually in more difficulty perhaps is Dazzling Fit, who’s out there in that wide gate.

He’s got good early gate speed. Where’s he going to go from there if he’s got Numbers inside him going forward? Maybe he’ll go with him and light him up, or is he going to drop back and slot in? There are different elements coming into play here. Yeah, you might be right — Numbers might get an easy lead — but I just think something inside will make it a little bit difficult for him, perhaps Emblazon.

[05:05] Michael Cox:
Coming back to the draw, we’re talking about speed and the speed map. We’ll go through a couple of the other horses there and what their tactics might be, but it’s going to come up with a few of these horses. That’s the front end of the field.

Little Paradise will be in the back half of the field almost certainly. I spoke to Jimmy Ting, and Little Paradise’s journey to the Derby has been an interesting one. He was an exciting winner first time at a mile in the Classic Mile, but he really had a race set-up that suited him. Then he came to the Classic Cup, got warm and excited before the race, went to the gates, leaned back in the gates, missed the start. Vincent Ho gave him a little click up to stay with them, and the horse over-raced. Despite that, he found the line and was going past horses at the end, but there’s a bit of remedial work required between then and now.

I spoke to Jimmy Ting at the barrier draw. His line on the draw itself was, “Well, I wanted between four and eight. I didn’t get it, but I’d rather 10 than two or one.” His reasoning was that he wants room to move with a big-striding horse. He can rationalise it all he wants, and he wants to have a positive mindset going in — I’m not saying he doesn’t think that — but where would you rather send him from: draw two or 10?

[06:42] David Morgan:
Personally, 10. I think from 10 he gets a bit of daylight, whereas from a low draw he could end up pocketed, get in trouble, get lit up. I think Jimmy’s right in the way he reads the horse. He does like to be out there and be able to stride, not be harried, not be hassled. I think keeping him away from horses with a bit of daylight up to his outside will benefit the horse if that’s the way they’re going to ride him. I would not want to see him on the inside getting lit up, fighting for his head a little bit and over-racing.

[07:03] Michael Cox:
He does have an elite turn of foot, this horse — he has shown that — but can he show it over more than 1600 metres? That’s the big question for him. Jimmy Ting said he’s going to get the barrier attendant to hold the horse’s tail so he doesn’t lean back in the gates again and have that issue.

Also an interesting comment from him this morning: I talked about how the horse had got stirred up by the excitement before the Classic Cup. Now, the situation is not going to get any better for Derby Day. Huge crowd, boisterous crowd. They go around, even if he wants to get out of the parade ring early, he goes out onto the track and then into the starting gates in front of the crowd. It’s a completely different situation for all of these horses — a bigger crowd than they’ve ever seen, most likely — and right in front of them at the gates with a big roar before they start. It’s really going to be a test of his temperament.

Jimmy said that he’d kept the horse’s work lighter going into the Classic Cup, knowing that this was his big day, the Derby, and that maybe he’d left him a little bit fresh going into the Classic Cup. For me, that made me feel a bit better about his chances. I like hearing a trainer at least give me an explanation rather than just shrugging his shoulders and saying, “I don’t know, he just got stirred up and missed the start and I don’t know why and I don’t know what I’m going to do about it.” At least he’s provided some reasoning. But the reality is, if it was the crowd that got him stirred up on Classic Cup Day, it’s not going to be any easier on Derby Day.

[10:58] David Morgan:
Yeah, if that is the case, then that’s a concern. We’ve been there. You’re down by the rail, those horses come through from the back side of the parade ring, they come onto the track and you see them parading. A number of times in the Derby you see a horse that just looks stretched, for want of a better word — starting to sweat up, starting to pull, and you can see they’re not happy and the atmosphere is getting to them. And if that’s how a horse reacts, you can almost guarantee they’re not going to win the race. So I’d be very concerned if that’s the issue for him, because you can’t have that in the Derby.

[11:42] Michael Cox:
I have to say, I’ve really scrutinised Jimmy Ting and Vincent Ho in our analysis, on our podcast, and in my columns, talking about the pressure that they’re under. If you go to IdolHorse.com, you can see the Idol Horse Racing Round Table with David Morgan, Luke Middlebrook and myself with our takes on the race. Luke wrote about who is under the most pressure and put forward Jimmy Ting, and in Shane Dye’s column this week we talked about Vincent being under pressure with the ride and needing to get this horse to settle to show his best.

What I would say though, just from a storytelling perspective, is that this is definitely my favourite story of the race if he can win. It’s so rare to have a stable the size of Jimmy Ting’s and what it would mean for him to win, how it would elevate him, particularly with the scrutiny he’s under, particularly with a horse that hasn’t been straightforward and has had this disappointment, and then to come back. Jimmy’s own story as a man who was mentored by the great Brian Kan — I actually asked Jimmy today, what would Brian Kan be telling him now? It was interesting because it wasn’t anything technical. He just said, “Just enjoy the moment, believe in yourself, know that you know what you’re doing.” It was nice.

And then you’ve got Vincent Ho as well. He’s come back from some terrible injuries last season, a really shocking fall, and there’s that inevitable comparison with Golden Sixty, the great horse who won a Derby for him in dramatic fashion. I just think that’s the best story of the race if those two can win with Little Paradise.

[13:35] David Morgan:
Yeah, no, absolutely. It’s a fantastic story. Whenever you speak to Vincent, he’ll say that the pressure is not there. I think for him it’s more the microscope that he’s under and people are watching. Maybe it’s similar with Jimmy — the intensity of the scrutiny brings the pressure around them.

We’ve been around Hong Kong racing for 15 or 16 years, and historically if a local trainer got a really good horse, that horse was often taken off them. So I guess that’s where the scrutiny comes on a trainer like Jimmy. Can he deliver with his horse? And if he can, like you say, that’s an incredible boost for his career. It takes him to another level and can change the direction of things.

[14:24] Michael Cox:
Let’s talk about some of the other runners. The Classic Cup winner Stormy Grove — Frankie Lor trains Numbers and he also trains Stormy Grove. He’s drawn in the middle. Harry Bentley rides, and it would be a big win for him if he can get it done. It really lifts a jockey’s profile if they can win this race.

Stormy Grove showed what looks, by pure time and to the eye, like a race-winning turn of foot. How much of that was down to the right race set-up, and can he produce it over 2000 metres?

[15:03] David Morgan:
Well, this is interesting because his last two wins came from being drawn 12 and 14 and settling back in the field. So this is a whole different prospect. If he’s drawn seven and sits more handily, it’ll be interesting to see whether that race shape of those previous races suited him with that run down the outside where he’s quickened up and gone past them.

Can he do the same if he settles a little bit handier? One would think, just on face value, drawn seven means he’s in a better spot to choose what to do from there. Maybe we’ll see an even better horse. Similar with Patch Of Cosmo — he’s been drawn wide and now he’s drawn six. So you’ve got two candidates there that have been drawn wide and have chosen to sit deeper in the field. This is a different set-up for them now, drawn six and seven. Are they going to go back, or are they going to sit handier? You’d think they’d sit more handily from those gates if they can get the spots.

[15:59] Michael Cox:
If I was giving the instructions, I’d be telling Harry Bentley to go and watch replays of Ping Hai Star and Ryan Moore and say: do not touch him, just let him go, just let him bowl along, and if he doesn’t win, okay — but if he over-races, he won’t. He’ll undo all of the good work they’ve done.

I just don’t think it helps him to be bustled or pushed up. I think they’ve found the key to the horse: just drop him out. It takes nerve to do what Ryan Moore did, but I think he’s shown quite clearly that he’s a good enough horse. You’ve got to go in with tactics that say: if he’s the Derby winner, then he can win with that ride. That’s my philosophy. If he’s good enough, I just don’t think he benefits from being closer.

We’ll see how it unfolds. I think Numbers will lead. We’ll see when the pressure comes on. Three of these horses have raced over 2000 metres or more. You’ve got two horses coming up from 1400 metres. I don’t think I’ve seen a Derby with less proven distance in it than this one. I’ve seen Derbies with a few sprinters in them where you go, well, that’s just silly that those horses are in there, but here you just don’t know. How will they be ridden?

I think Stormy Grove should be ridden absolutely cold. You tell Harry: ride him like he’s the best horse in the race, because he has to be ridden that way. And if you ride him that way and he is the best horse in the race, you’ll win it.

Now, Patch Of Cosmo is in the race. Dylan Brown McMonagle came off a horse on Wednesday night, tried to ride in the following race, then was stood down for the remainder of the night, but he’s been cleared to ride on Sunday on Patch Of Cosmo.

[18:22] Michael Cox:
Patch Of Cosmo spent a lot of time on the sideline after injury from Manfred Man. He’s probably getting to peak fitness now. He looks like a horse that just has that hint of quality when you look at his profile. Is he good enough to win the Derby?

[18:44] David Morgan:
He could well be this year, yeah. He hasn’t really done anything wrong. He won four races last season before he was sidelined. He’s won one from three this season and then was third in the Classic Cup last time.

He’s got Savabeel on the dam side, so if we’re talking stamina and 2000 metres, that might be just what he’s looking for. The way he races, the way he comes with that run on the outside, he certainly looks to me like 2000 metres is going to be up his street in this kind of a race. So he’s definitely a prospect as a Derby winner in a field like this, where we haven’t really got an absolute standout superstar at the moment.

[19:36] Michael Cox:
Well, someone’s going to be declared a superstar, put on posters and promoted and head to Champions Day. Who could it be? We’ll get one more. Make sure you go to the site and check out Racing Round Table, our expert takes on it.

For most likely outsider, Luke Middlebrook put forward Sagacious Life. Sagacious Life was the horse that Zac Purton chose to ride out of seven choices in the Classic Mile. Now Zac, of course, has found his way back into the race. That’s another story. We’ll get to his ride in a second. Luke put forward Sagacious Life, and Karis Teetan has picked up the ride. What do you make of his chances, David?

[20:24] David Morgan:
If we discount his last run, he’s a big chance. If you look at what he did overseas, we know the distance is not a problem for him. He won over a mile and a half at Group 1 level in Brazil. It’s just that last run, knowing that he had an issue and they said that came to light when he was 14th, that’s a big concern to me.

I struggle to think of a horse that’s run like that and then bounced back and won a Derby. You’re talking about a horse who was last in the Classic Cup off the back of what Zac thought was a slightly disappointing fourth in the Classic Mile. So to then win a Derby would be quite a turnaround, and I just don’t see it happening. Discount that last run and he comes into the Derby with a pretty decent profile of what a Derby winner might look like, but that last run just puts me off him.

[21:17] Michael Cox:
Of course, Zac Purton has picked up the ride on Seraph Gabriel at the eleventh hour. His previous two Derby winners, Luger and Massive Sovereign, came late in a similarly dramatic way. You’ve put Seraph Gabriel as a possible outsider. Make your case before we wrap things up.

[21:39] David Morgan:
Yeah, he’s interesting. If you look at his form overseas before he came to Hong Kong, he looked like a progressive type of horse. Nothing flashy, but he ran a good second at Royal Ascot over 2000 metres. Then he came to Hong Kong and his first run was disappointing to my mind when he was 11th.

Then he came out and ran a really good second. And if you look at that second, it has worked out pretty well for him. It was over a mile back at the beginning of February, and he was beaten a neck by Lucky Sam Gor, giving nine pounds to that horse. The form around that ties in with some of the better horses in this field. It’s pretty solid.

Then next time he didn’t really show much at all when he was 12th over 2000 metres. But I think there’s a case for forgiving him that a little bit and knowing that he’s got that ability in the locker. He should be a long shot — there’s no question about that — but he’s a long shot that is quite interesting as potentially a dark horse. Maybe he’s had three runs on the board, maybe he’s figuring things out, and with Zac Purton on it would be an incredible story. He’s worth looking at and not discounting completely.

[23:09] Michael Cox:
Thanks for joining us, David, and looking forward to Sunday’s race. Let’s talk about what’s on the site right now. You’ve got a profile on young jockey Jack Callan. Tell us about that.

[23:20] David Morgan:
Yeah, Jack Callan is the son of Neil Callan, who obviously people in Hong Kong will remember as “Iron Man,” as the locals used to call him. Jack’s 19 now. He grew up at Sha Tin. He watched his dad race there. When he was a little kid he was around the track at Happy Valley and at barrier trials on a Saturday morning once a month. He grew up around Sha Tin with all these top jockeys around him.

He’s now making his way as an apprentice jockey, spent a little bit of time in Australia over the winter, and has this sort of international outlook. Really, after his first season as an apprentice last year, he’s on the cusp of potentially pushing for that champion apprentice title in England this year. So I had a chat with him at Newcastle races a few weeks back, and yeah, he’s an apprentice jockey to keep an eye on.

[24:12] Michael Cox:
And also on the site, thanks for joining us. Quick reminder that this weekend Whirlpool turns its attention to Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill. It’s a huge card — not just the Golden Slipper but five Group 1 races, and James McDonald on the brink of history. Adam Pengilly from Idol Horse will be there. Check out the site on Monday for all of the wrap from there.

Also on IdolHorse.com, there’s plenty of Derby-related content, and there’s a terrific read from Adam Pengilly on trainer Philip Stokes. All that and more on IdolHorse.com.

[24:52] Michael Cox:
Catch you next time on the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast.