CropGPT - Cocoa

The weekly report on the global Cocoa market for week 45. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This episode covers key developments in the global cocoa market.
  • In the Ivory Coast, the main crop harvest has begun under favorable dry weather, which has improved cocoa bean drying conditions. However, despite a strong start, cocoa exports have declined from 365,072 metric tons to 304,140 metric tons early in the marketing year. This, combined with ICE-monitored inventories hitting a seven-and-a-half-month low, may add upward pressure on prices. The decline in exports could also signal deeper issues related to forestry management or macroeconomic instability.
  • Ghana's cocoa sector is experiencing a mix of beneficial and adverse conditions. While strong weather supports pod development and yield potential, the industry is hampered by smuggling, driven by price gaps and delayed farmer payments. The government has introduced informant reward programs and improved pricing strategies to combat these challenges. It is also supporting farmers with subsidies, including free fertilizers and pesticides, to retain agricultural value within the country.
  • In Nigeria, cocoa production is forecasted to drop by 11% in the 2025-2026 crop year, down to 305,000 metric tons. This decline is linked to aging plantations and insufficient access to fertilizers, posing a risk to Nigeria’s economy and tightening global supply, which may further influence price trends.
  • Cocoa’s inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is expected to draw inflows from passive investment funds, possibly stabilizing or lifting cocoa futures. However, the market remains vulnerable to softening global demand. Grinding volumes—a proxy for demand—have decreased across Asia, Europe, and North America. Elevated cocoa prices and tariffs have also curbed chocolate consumption in key consumer regions like North America.

What is CropGPT - Cocoa?

Cocoa news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global cocoa market for 11/09/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. In The Ivory Coast, the onset of the main crop harvest has benefited from favorable dry weather, allowing for efficient cocoa bean drying. Despite the strong start, exports have dropped sharply to 304,140 metric tons from the previous 365,072 metric tons early in the marketing year. This decrease, paired with lower ICE monitored inventories at a seven and a half month low, may lend some upward pressure on cocoa prices.

Speaker 1:

However, falling export numbers might indicate underlying issues related to forestry management or macroeconomic challenges. Turning to Ghana, the cocoa sector experiences a mix of favorable and challenging conditions. While favorable weather promotes strong pod development and potential yield, significant smuggling undermines the industry. Price disparities and payment delays exacerbate smuggling, impacting revenue. Ghana has introduced measures such as informant reward schemes and improved pricing strategies to curb this issue.

Speaker 1:

Additionally, the government provides subsidies like free fertilizers and pesticides to support farmers, aiming to retain economic benefits domestically and bolster local agriculture. In Nigeria, a projected 11% decrease in cocoa production for the twenty twenty five Tas-twenty six crop year, estimated at three zero five in metric tons, looms due to aging plantations and limited fertilizer access. This decline threatens Nigeria's agriculture dependent economy and may bolster global cocoa prices due to diminished supply from this key producer. Globally, several factors mold cocoa market dynamics. Cocoa's addition to the Bloomberg Commodity Index is predicted to drive market inflows from passive funds, potentially stabilizing or boosting cocoa futures prices.

Speaker 1:

Nevertheless, the market faces risks from a global downturn in demand, as evidenced by reduced cocoa grindings in Asia, Europe, and to varying extents in North America. High cocoa prices and tariffs further suppress consumer chocolate demand, particularly in primary consumption regions like North America. In summary, despite localized positive developments in crop conditions and governmental efforts, the global cocoa market grapples with multiple challenges, including declining production in key areas, pervasive smuggling concerns, and fluctuating demand driven by global economic, logistical, and policy shifts. These factors together shape the intricate landscape of cocoa pricing and market viability. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the cocoa market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis.

Speaker 1:

This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.