CropGPT - Coffee

The weekly report on the global Coffee market for week 39. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This week’s episode explores key developments across the global coffee market.
  • In Brazil, regenerative coffee farming practices are gaining momentum, led by companies like Ilsa Brazil. Techniques such as the use of cover crops and organic fertilizers are improving soil health and mitigating climate challenges. These methods have become particularly relevant amid fluctuating market conditions and shifting rainfall patterns in key regions like Minas Gerais, where recent rain temporarily eased dry spells and caused a dip in Arabica prices. However, Brazil’s exports continue to face headwinds due to a 50% U.S. tariff, which has contributed to a drop in Arabica inventories to their lowest point in 18 months. Innovations such as drip irrigation are showing yield improvements, demonstrating adaptive capacity among producers.
  • Vietnam, the leading Robusta producer, expects a 6% increase in output for the 2025–26 season, reaching 1.76 million metric tons, supported by favorable weather. Export performance has also been strong, with a 7.8% increase in shipments between January and August 2025. Notably, exports to the European Union surged following the EVFTA, growing from USD 64 million to USD 466 million over five years.
  • China’s coffee export landscape has been mixed in 2025. While July saw a decline, total exports through the first seven months reached USD 230 million, even with a 23.8% drop in volume. On the import side, China’s demand is surging, with a 46% year-on-year increase in coffee imports, largely driven by Brazilian supply. The state of Santa Catarina is emerging as a hub for specialty coffee, fueled by family-owned farms and research-backed development, including Arabica cultivar trials supported by the International Finance Corporation.

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Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global coffee market for 09/28/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. In Brazil, regenerative coffee farming is gaining traction, spearheaded by Ilsa Brazil's innovative methods, like using cover crops and organic fertilizers such as Fertile to enhance soil health and counter climatic challenges. This approach aims to ensure sustainable coffee production amid market fluctuations driven by climatic influences such as the rainfall in Minas Gerais, which recently alleviated dry conditions and led to a temporary drop in Arabica prices. However, Brazilian coffee exports face hurdles due to a 50% U.

Speaker 1:

S. Tariff, reducing exports to The U. S. Lowering ice tracked Arabica inventories to a one and a half year low. Positively, techniques like drip irrigation at Sao Paulo's Esteva farm showcase significant yield improvements, underscoring adaptive farming innovations.

Speaker 1:

Turning to Vietnam, the dominant Robusta producer anticipates a 6% production increase by the twenty twenty five-twenty six season, with output expected to reach 1,760,000 metric tons. Beneficial weather conditions have helped maintain robust production levels. Furthermore, export advancements reflect strong international demand, with a 7.8% increase observed from January to August 2025. Exports to the European Union have notably surged post EVFTA, marking substantial market share gains, ballooning from USD64 million to USD466 million over five years. In China, 2025 brought mixed fortunes for coffee exports, which dipped in July but maintained resilience across the first seven months, with USD230 million in exports, despite a 23.8% volume decrease.

Speaker 1:

On the import front, China shows vigorous growth, with imports climbing 46% year on year to $1,190,000,000 led by robust imports from Brazil, enhancing Brazilian market presence despite broader export challenges. Santa Catarina, Brazil, emerges as a promising area for specialty coffee, driven by family farming initiatives backed by research from entities like Epigree and International Finance Corporation. Efforts include publishing a suitability map and testing various Arabica cultivars to optimize production under diverse conditions, showcasing strong institutional support to reinvigorate the region's historic specialty coffee industry. Globally, the coffee market is experiencing shifts, with price variability influenced by geopolitical tensions and weather events affecting major producers like Brazil and Vietnam. The U.

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S. Tariff policy and climate phenomena, such as La Nina, pose potential disruptions to production cycles, impacting global supply and price stability. Nonetheless, production forecasts for twenty twenty five-twenty six from Brazil and Vietnam signal resilience and adaptability in the industry, even amidst these ongoing challenges. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the coffee market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.