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AI is the biggest technology shift of our lifetime. This show is about how to profit from it together.
Each week I talk with the founders and CEOs closest to AI and Content, the ones figuring this out in real time.
I’m also building an AI content business myself and share the lessons I learn along the way.
WHAT WE COVER
The Titans -- How companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and xAI are moving, and why their decisions matter.
The Incumbents -- How content giants like Disney, News Corp, Universal Music Group, and Reddit are responding to AI, and what it means for creators and publishers.
The Playbook -- Real lessons on AI business models, content strategy, creativity, IP licensing, distribution, and getting paid.
Family & Our Future -- Every episode ends with me asking my guest what AI means for our jobs, our families, and the next generation.
ABOUT YOUR HOST
Rob Kelly has interviewed Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, helped pioneer early web content licensing, and built multiple companies with more than $100 million in total sales. His work has appeared on CNBC, CNN, TIME, and Entrepreneur.
Thanks! -Rob
I'm Rob Kelly, this is Media and the Machine, a show about the biggest technology shift of our lifetime and how to profit from it. Each week, I talk with the founders and CEOs closest to AI and content, the ones figuring this out in real time. I'm also building an AI content business myself and share lessons of what I learned along the way. You know, life's funny. I began my career lucky enough to interview leaders like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates.
Rob Kelly:Then I went on to be a three time founder and CEO, driving a $100,000,000 plus in revenue and some failures too. And now I'm back at the table, interviewing this new world's current and future leaders. This isn't only a business story, it's a human one. So every episode ends with me asking my guest what AI means for our jobs, our families, and the next generation. We'll figure this out together from the inside.
Rob Kelly:Welcome to Media and the Machine.
Rob Kelly:There are only a handful of people in the world truly leading the AI race, and I wanna understand the humans behind the hype. People like Sam Altman at OpenAI, Dario Amode at Anthropic, Demis Hassabis at Google DeepMind, Mustafa Suleyman at Microsoft AI, and Elon Musk through x AI. The leaders behind the companies building the models, buying the chips, and shaping the rules of AI. So every few episodes, I'm gonna profile one of these AI leaders through the best book biography I can find.
Rob Kelly:Where did they come from? What do they believe? What kind of future are they trying to build? After all, their decisions are shaping the future of business and humanity. Here's my summary of the coming wave biography by Mustafa Suleyman, the CEO of Microsoft AI.
Rob Kelly:A little background on Mustafa. He was DeepMind cofounder along with Demis Hassabis and Shane Legg. DeepMind famously bought by Google. He's an inflection co founder and CEO. Microsoft came in, did a big deal, paid around a billion dollars for the team in inflection, and a license to inflection's technology, served an acquihire even though they called it a licensing deal, somewhere in between.
Rob Kelly:And one thing I think about Mustafa that I really like and think is important is he's more worldly than your average entrepreneur. He's British born, raised in London. He's got a Syrian father, English mother, Not your normal startup guy or gal. His first three jobs, for instance, Muslim youth helpline, mental health support to young Muslims. He was a policy officer at London City Hall working in the government.
Rob Kelly:He worked on conflict resolution for a firm called Rios Partners. I don't know a lot about them, but they basically resolve global conflicts, you know, involving hundreds of regions, countries around the globe. Just overall, a worldly different kind of background and a do good sort of upbringing too, you could say. But now he's at Microsoft, a highly capitalist company, and I think that mix is really fascinating. One of the reasons I wanted to share my highlights from this book, The Coming Wave.
Rob Kelly:So couple things. First off, by wave, he means technology. So he does a nice primer on the biggest technologies in history, stone tools, fire, language, agriculture, writing. I'm gonna skip through that. You could find that in a lot of other history of innovation types of books.
Rob Kelly:But I thought I would start with a quote here about his view of technology and a wave, which is technology is an eternally dangling carrot, constantly promising more, better, easier, cheaper. Our appetite for invention is insatiable. The seeming inevitability of waves comes not from the absence of resistance, but from demand overwhelming it. And with that, I thought I'm gonna dive into the AlphaGo story. Even though it's been documented, including I rank AlphaGo, the documentary, the number one documentary in the best AI documentaries, which I wrote about.
Rob Kelly:You can look up on Media and the Machine and also dailydoc.com, a newsletter blog on great documentaries. So it's the best AI documentaries. Go search that. You'll find the article. And I wanna give you some background just on AlphaGo because he was there.
Rob Kelly:It gives you a sense of his perspective and also the impact of this AI wave. So I'm reading right from the book here. Even days before its first public competition in March 2016, prominent researchers thought an AI simply couldn't win at this level of Go. At DeepMind, again, DeepMind acquired by Google, we were still uncertain our program would prevail in a matchup with a master human competitor. Within the AI community, it represented a first high profile public test of deep reinforcement learning and one of the first research uses of a very large cluster of GPU computation.
Rob Kelly:We all know later on how important GPUs and computing power became. In the press, the matchup between AlphaGo and Lee Sedol was presented as an epic battle, human versus machine, humanity's best and brightest against the cold lifeless force of a computer to all the tired tropes of terminators and robot overlords. But under the surface, another more important dimension was becoming clear, attention I dimly worried about ahead of the contest. AlphaGo wasn't just human versus machine. As Lee Sedol squared up against AlphaGo, DeepMind was represented by the Union Jack.
Rob Kelly:That's the British flag for those who don't know. While the Sodaal camp flew the Taeguki. I think I'm getting that right. That's pronunciation of the South Koreans unmistakable flag. This was West versus East.
Rob Kelly:The implication of national rivalry was an aspect of the contest I soon came to regret. I'll go on reading here. It's hard to overstate how popular the competition was in Asia. In the West, the proceedings were followed by some hardcore AI enthusiasts. Remember, this is pre chat GPT, so it's fascinating.
Rob Kelly:By far, almost everyone in the world who watched this was outside The US, and maybe 1% was from The US. It was a significant moment in tech history. So ironic even though it's a significant moment, way more people outside The US reading about it. Across Asia, the event was bigger than the Super Bowl. More than 280,000,000 people watched live.
Rob Kelly:We'd taken over an entire hotel in Seoul's downtown mobbed by ever present members of the local and international media. You could hardly move for hundreds of photographers and TV cameras. The intensity was unlike anything I'd experienced before, a level of scrutiny and hype that seemed alien in what was, to Western observers, an obscure game for math enthusiasts. AI developers, suffice to say, were not used to this. In Asia, it wasn't just the geeks watching.
Rob Kelly:It was everyone. And soon became clear that the observers, including tech companies, governments, and militaries, The results sent a shockwave through them all. The significance was lost on no one. The challenger, a western firm, London based, American owned, had just marched into an ancient, iconic, cherished game, literally put its flag on the turf, and obliterated the home team. It was as if a group of Korean robots had shown up at Yankee Stadium and beat America's all star baseball team.
Rob Kelly:Mustafa goes on to a part that wasn't in the AlphaGo documentary, but it was in the thinking game documentary by CEO Demis Sasanye over at DeepMind. And this is fascinating. This is something a part two to this story. So soul wasn't the end for AlphaGo. A year later in May 2017, we took part in a second tournament, this time against the number one ranked player in the world.
Rob Kelly:Last time was one of the top, you know, maybe a top five player. This gentleman's name, by the way, was K Chia. Hope I got his pronunciation correct. This matchup took place in Wuzhen, China at the future of ghost summit. Our reception in Wuzhen was strikingly different.
Rob Kelly:Live streaming the matches was barred in the People's Republic. No mention of Google was allowed. Very different than the first match. The environment was stricter, more controlled, the narrative closely curated by authorities. No more media circus.
Rob Kelly:The subtext was clear. This wasn't just a game anymore. AlphaGo won again, but it did so amid an unmistakably tense atmosphere. By the way, as an aside, in that Thinking Aim documentary, which I ranked the number two AI documentary, more specifically about DeepMind and Demis, cofounder of it, they go into the second match in China bit, and they mentioned that it was so controversial, their opinion at least, was that during the match, the Chinese government cut off the feed. Is it millions of people, you know, tens of millions of people, maybe hundreds of millions were watching.
Rob Kelly:Even on the streets, it was broadcast everywhere that the Chinese government cut off the feed right in the middle as AlphaGo was starting to beat Keqiang. So Mustafa goes on. Something had changed. If Seoul offered a hint, Wu Zhen brought it home. As the dust settled, it became clear AlphaGo was part of a much bigger story than one trophy system or company.
Rob Kelly:It was that of great powers engaging in a new and dangerous game of technological competition and a series of overwhelmingly powerful and interlocking incentives that ensure the coming wave really is coming. Now next up, Mustafa talks about four drivers of technology, and I'll again let him use his own words here, of course. The first driver has to do with what I experienced with AlphaGo. Great power competition. Technological rivalry is a geopolitical reality.
Rob Kelly:Indeed, it always has been. Nations feel the existential need to keep up with their peers. Innovation is power. Second comes a global research ecosystem with its ingrained rituals rewarding open publication, curiosity, and the pursuit of new ideas at all costs. Then third comes the immense financial gains from technology and the urgent need to tackle our global social challenges.
Rob Kelly:And the final fourth driver is perhaps the most human of all, Mustafa says, ego. Mustafa gives a great story on Sputnik. In the 1957, the Soviets launched Sputnik, the world's first artificial satellite, humanity's first encroachment on space, about the size of a beach ball, and it was still impossibly futuristic. Sputnik was up there for the world to see or rather hear its extraterrestrial beeps broadcasting around the planet. Pulling it off was an undeniable feat.
Rob Kelly:This was a crisis for America. A technological Pearl Harbor policy reacted. Science and technology from high schools to advanced laboratories became national priorities with new funding and new agencies like NASA and DARPA. So you see what Mustafa is getting at here is he's talking about past waves and the implications and the ripple effects that happen after some crazy new, you know, milestone or technological feat, in this case, Sputnik. So very useful.
Rob Kelly:Look back at history and see what might happen here in the future. Okay. Back to the Sputnik story. Massive resources were plowed into major technology projects, not least the Apollo missions. So he's talking about The US's reaction to Sputnik in Russia.
Rob Kelly:These spurred many different advances in rocketry, microelectronics, and computer programming. Nason alliances like NATO were strengthened. Twelve years later, it was The United States, not the USSR, that succeeded in putting a human on the moon. The Soviets almost bankrupted themselves trying to keep up. With Sputnik, Russia had blown past The United States as historical technical achievement with enormous geopolitical ramifications.
Rob Kelly:But when America needed to step up, it did. Just as Sputnik eventually put The United States on course to be a superpower in rocketry, space technology, computing, and all their military and civilian applications, so something similar is now taking place in China. AlphaGo is quickly so back to the AlphaGo story. Why is it so important? It's quickly labeled China's Sputnik moment for AI.
Rob Kelly:The Americans in the West, just as they had done in the early days of the Internet, were threatening to steal a march on an epoch making technology. Here was the clearest possible reminder that China, beaten at a national pastime, remember, Go is their pastime, could once again find itself far behind the frontier. China is so important. Mustafa gets back to it in multiple places in the book. So I instead consolidated a bunch about China that I'm gonna save for a little bit.
Rob Kelly:It just makes more sense in in the narrative here structurally. So we'll get back to China. Mustafa does talk about exceptions to new technologies being adopted. In other words, in one part of the book, he's saying, basically, it's unstoppable, and he only lists one powerful technology that did not become ubiquitous in the history of humankind, and that is nuclear power. Ironically, nuclear power now is back in vogue.
Rob Kelly:A lot of money is being invested, ironically, because the power needed for AI, so even nuclear power now is coming back. However, since reading this book, Palmer Luckey reminded me in an interview with Rick Rubin that one other technology that is very powerful but has not become ubiquitous yet is virtual reality. Palmer Luckey created Oculus, which was bought by Facebook for billions of dollars in the virtual reality world. And now he's building, by the way, our lucky is he's got his Andoroll startup, which is building AI powered defense systems and military vehicles, aircraft, and drone related stuff. Very AI powered, so the two are coming around.
Rob Kelly:And, of course, Palmer thinks it's inevitable that virtual reality still will succeed. So let's talk about the super wave. Here, what Mustafa is talking about in a super wave is if one wave hits another. So in this case, he talks about AI and biology, and I'm gonna quote again from Mustafa here, which is the biorevolution is coevolving with advances in AI. Indeed, many of the phenomena discussed will rely on AI for their realization.
Rob Kelly:Think then of two waves crashing together, not a wave, but a super wave. Indeed, from one vantage, artificial intelligence and synthetic biology are almost interchangeable. All intelligence to date has come from life. Call them synthetic intelligence and artificial life, and they still mean the same thing. Both fields are about recreating, engineering these utterly foundational and interrelated concepts, two core attributes of humanity, change the view, and they become one single project.
Rob Kelly:Interesting factoid from Mustafa on biology, human genome sequencing in particular. He talks about the cost of it and how it fell from a billion dollars in 2023 to well under a thousand dollars by 2022. So that's a drop of a million fold in under twenty years. What that got me thinking immediately for you and I is the rudimentary example in AI. What's the costliest thing right now?
Rob Kelly:It's building an LLM model. Some folks would say it's let's call it a $100,000,000 just to be on the high end. And, you know, there's only really five or six major companies building LLMs right now, the big frontier five, I would call them. They include OpenAI. They include Google.
Rob Kelly:You've got Anthropic. You've got Elon Musk's x.ai, which includes twitterx.com as part of that. And then you've got Meta, slightly different because it's open source and just within the Meta program, but highly used. And there's some others. You could say Mistral in France, Deepsea in China, six and seven, but those five dominate all of this.
Rob Kelly:And, conservatively, let's go back to the cost savings. If an LLM cost about a $100,000,000 a model to create today, Just putting out that number. It's somewhere in that ballpark. Tens of millions. Let's call it a 100,000,000 today.
Rob Kelly:Well, using Mustafa's lesson from dropping the cost in human genome sequencing from a billion down to a thousand, again, a million fold decreasing cost. If we have a million fold decrease in cost of building an LLM model, then less than twenty years from now, you might and we might, each of us, have an LLM in our pocket that we own that cost a $100 by 2045. Probably sooner because these things move faster. And I'm not talking about access to an LLM. I'm talking about each human being owning their own LLM.
Rob Kelly:It might also be, by the way, biological with genome sequencing. You know, a biological LLM just for yourself unique. But, again, you know, the power of this or anyone could create it. There might be, you know, a 100,000,000 or a billion LLM models out there more powerful than today. So I thought that was fascinating.
Rob Kelly:Let's go back to China. So highlights from the book about China. Mustafa says, today, China has an explicit national strategy to be the world leader in AI by 2003. The new generation artificial intelligence development plan announced just two months after Kei Chia was beaten by AlphaGo, remember the big match in China, was intended to harness government, the military research organizations, and industry in a collective mission. Alright.
Rob Kelly:Reading on. Universities like Xinhua and Peking are competitive with Western universities like Stanford, MIT, and Oxford. Indeed, in Xinhua, they publish more AI research there at that university than any other academic institution on the planet. China was the first country to land a probe on the dark side of the moon. No country has even attempted this.
Rob Kelly:I had no idea. I only know of the dark side of the moon through Pink Floyd, but that sounds amazing. China has more of the world's supercomputers than anywhere else. China has filed twice as many quantum technology patents as The US. Here's directly back from the book.
Rob Kelly:During COVID, I had no idea. This is a wild story. During COVID quarantines in China, robot dogs and drones carried speakers blasting messages warning people to stay inside. That was what was going on back in COVID. Additionally, Chinese police even have sunglasses with built in facial recognition technology capable of tracking suspects in crowds.
Rob Kelly:Around half the world's billion CCTV cameras are in China. Half the world. That's 500,000,000 CCTV cameras are in China. Many have built in facial recognition and carefully positioned to gather maximal information, often in quasi private spaces, residential buildings, hotels, even karaoke lounges. A New York Times investigation found the police in Fujian province alone estimated they held a database of 2,500,000,000 facial images.
Rob Kelly:They were candid about its purpose, controlling and managing people. This is fascinating. And by the way, if you think this is not gonna happen in The US and in some form, at some level, Madison Square Garden, one of my favorite arenas in the world, greatest arena on Earth, think is the tagline, They've got facial scanning technology now that they use so that if you are a MSG, Master Square Garden sort of hater, like you're an attorney who has sued them for something, or you're a fan who caused trouble, They've got facial scanning technology, and they've got you in the database. And if you pop up, boom. Ask you to leave, not to attend an event in Madison Square Garden.
Rob Kelly:So this is not so far fetched, but China basically is kicking the rest of the world's butts in terms of the use of AI technology, and you can argue whether this is good or bad or, you know, dystopian sort of society. But one thing's for sure, they're doing a lot more AI than anyone else. So back to more China stuff. Mustafa says, do not sleep on Alibaba, the huge Chinese Internet startup. They've been kinda quiet on the AI front.
Rob Kelly:He says they claim to have had a model with 10,000,000,000,000 parameters. This is now, like, a year and a half ago or so, and that today, even if they had it, would be right up there with any of the largest models in the world. So this is how fast things can move too. Suddenly, you know, we heard about DeepSeek early on from China, and and don't be surprised if you see another Chinese company, Alibaba, or someone else trouncing The US AI wise by some measurement. And then he also brings up the CRISPR babies, which I had completely forgotten that Chinese produced the first children created with edited genomes.
Rob Kelly:This is back in 2018. Lulu and Nana, I think it is, or Nana. They're working on advanced stuff over there, is Mustafa's point. It's tough to have a in-depth discussion about AI without talking about displacement of jobs, and Mustafa gives his opinion. Again, I think it's important to watch these AI thinkers and understand what they're thinking.
Rob Kelly:Broadly speaking, when technology damaged old jobs and industries, it also produced new ones. Over time, these new jobs tended towards service industry roles and cognitive based white collar jobs. As factories closed in the Rust Belt, demand for lawyers, designers, and social media influencers boomed. But what if new job displacing systems scaled the ladder of human cognitive ability itself, leaving nowhere new for labor to turn? If the coming wave, this is of AI, really is as general and wide ranging as it appears, how will humans compete?
Rob Kelly:What if a large majority of white collar tasks can be performed more efficiently by AI? In few areas, will humans still be better than machines? That's in quotes. Better. I've long argued this is the more likely scenario.
Rob Kelly:With the arrival of the latest generation of large language models, I am now more convinced than ever that this is how things will play out. These tools will only temporarily augment human technology. They will make us smarter and more efficient for a time and will unlock enormous amounts of economic growth, but they are fundamentally labor replacing. They will eventually do cognitive labor more efficiently and more cheaply than many people working in administration, data entry, customer service, including making and receiving phone calls, writing emails, drafting summaries, translating documents, creating content, copywriting, and so on. In the face of an abundance of ultra low cost equivalents, the day of this kind of cognitive manual labor are numbered.
Rob Kelly:One of cool things about Mustafa is he's got this global worldview, this very diverse background, And he talks about how other technological advances over time have impacted labor and how people work in specific communities. So he brought up in Germany, I had no idea this was the case. I checked on AI. In Germany, for example, annual working hours have decreased by nearly 60% since 1870 due to a number of tech advances. I asked about this.
Rob Kelly:I just wanted to dig in and confirm a little bit. And sure enough, that German workers now produce 10 x more output per hour than back then, so they can work less without hurting GPT. So it's just an interesting exercise to go through if AI has this impact of making us more productive. Will we all be working less or not? Don't know, but history points to one example.
Rob Kelly:Now on a related note, just interesting to look back at history and see how important some major innovations were to sort of GDP and the jobs and industries and value and so forth. He just gave one really cool factoid. Railways at their peak eighteen forties, they accounted for two thirds of total stock market value. So if you believe AI is a massive new wave, is it possible that AI related companies, AI industry and companies will account for the majority two thirds of stock market value? Just gives you a different way to look at things.
Rob Kelly:So finally, Mustafa's got some recommendations, safety and standards related. I wanna read directly from what he writes here. Put simply, as an equal partner in the creation of the coming wave, governments stand a better chance of steering it toward the overall public interest. Again, this is fascinating because most tech leaders do not want the government to be participating in innovation. They think it slows down.
Rob Kelly:Mustafa thinks it's a must. Having much more in house technical expertise even at considerable cost is money well spent. Remember, this guy's worked in the government, so he's got a little government bias possibly, but he's also worked in the commercial space, capital space. Governments should not rely on management consultants, contractors, or other third party suppliers, full time well respected staffers who are properly compensated competitively with the private sector should be a core part of the solution. Instead, private sector salaries can be 10 times their public sector equivalents in national critical roles.
Rob Kelly:It's unsustainable. Mustafa says you need safety standards. So just as you cannot simply launch a rocket into space, Mustafa says, without FAA approval, so tomorrow you shouldn't simply be able to release a state of the art AI. Again, this is the gentleman running AI for Microsoft. Just a fascinating perspective.
Rob Kelly:Moving on more on safeties and standards. He gives a great story here. Again, looking at the past is super useful to understanding our future. So he gives an example of and interestingly, this is a technology that needed serious guardrails, laser weapons, it turns out. Reading again from the book.
Rob Kelly:Laser weapons sound like science fiction. Unfortunately, they're not. As laser technology developed, it was clear they could cause blindness. Weaponized, this could incapacitate adversary forces or indeed anyone targeted. An exciting new civilian technology was again opening up the prospect of horrible modes of attack.
Rob Kelly:Think nuclear and AI. Right? Although not to date in the manner of Star Wars, he writes in parentheses, no one wants armies or gangs roaming around with blinding lasers. What happened? Luckily, it didn't happen.
Rob Kelly:Use of blinding laser weapons was outlawed under the 1995 protocol on blinding laser weapons. I had no idea this was a thing. An update to the convention on certain conventional weapons, all uppercase. So this was some movement in history here for safety. This prohibited the use of laser weapons specifically designed as their sole combat function or as one of their combat functions to cause permanent blindness to unenhanced vision.
Rob Kelly:A 126 countries signed up. Laser weapons are, as a result, neither a major part of military hardware nor common weapons on the streets. So you see what Mustafa is doing here is he's saying this looks like a good kind of approach for AI. You can still use the technology, which we do, lasers and a number of things, but there are gonna be some serious guardrails and no nos. Next up, he just asks the question out loud.
Rob Kelly:What does a World Bank for biotech or a UN for AI look like? So maybe we need something like that. And just a final nugget here. Again, he gives a big regulation government win with a new technology. Again, quoted directly from the book.
Rob Kelly:In the early days of jet engines, Mustafa writes, the nineteen fifties crashes and fatalities were worryingly common. By the early two thousand tens, they were just at one death per 7,400,000 passenger boardings. Years now go by with no fatal accidents whatsoever involving American and commercial aircraft at least. Flying is just about the safest mode of transport there is. Sitting 35,000 feet in the sky is safer than sitting at home on your couch.
Rob Kelly:Airlines' impressive safety record comes down to numerous incremental technical and operational improvements over the years. But behind them is something just as important, culture. The aviation industry takes a vigorous approach to learning from mistakes at every level. Crashes are not just tragic accents to mourn. They're foundational learning experiences in determining how systems fail.
Rob Kelly:Again, he's giving a parallel to AI. Opportunities for diagnosing problems, fixing them, and sharing their knowledge across the entire industry is key. Best practices are hence not corporate secrets and edge over rival airlines. They're enthusiastically implemented by competitors in the common interests of collective industry trust and safety. Hopefully, now you see why I recommend reading this book or following the writings and interviews with top AI thinkers like Mustafa.
Rob Kelly:The book is The Coming Wave. I found a lot of useful nuggets out of it with a big wave like AI and perhaps super waves related to it. We all want the same things. We want progress, prosperity, better way of life, fulfillment, and, of course, we want things and new innovations to be safe for all of us and our families. Thanks for listening.
Rob Kelly:Well, this is Media and the Machine. A few things about you and me. If you wanna hear about the next new episode, make sure you hit follow on the show and your podcast app. If you wanna go a little deeper, head to mediaandthemachine.com and subscribe. When you share your email with me, you can see handcrafted transcripts, read the essays in my newsletter, and be the first to hear about who the guest is on the next show.
Rob Kelly:You can also email me directly from there. Maybe you wanna recommend a guest. I'll give you a shout out if you do. I love paying it forward. From time to time, I also open up office hours and host small meetups for subscribers, just to meet, talk, and build things together.
Rob Kelly:And if you're creating something of your own or thinking about it, I'd love to help. Maybe you've got a podcast in you. Finally, I don't have a marketing budget for this show. So if it's finding you and others, it's because someone like you passed it along. I'm genuinely grateful.
Rob Kelly:If you have a moment, an honest rating helps me make this better for you. You just go to the show page and click one of the stars. And I'd rather you give me a low rating than no rating at all. I mean it. It pushes me to get better.
Rob Kelly:Thanks again, and see you next time.