Subscribe
Share
Share
Embed
Hedging the Bet with Gabe Sousa and Ben Julian is your go-to sports betting podcast, dropping every Friday to prep you for the weekend’s action. Each week, Gabe and Ben break down the top matchups across the world of sports—offering sharp analysis, expert picks, and all the insight you need to place your bets with confidence. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just looking for smart plays, Hedging the Bet is your winning edge!
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome in to this Tuesday episode of Hedging the Bet. I'm not alone today. I'm joined by my good friend, good pal over here, Brady Philbin. Brady, how are you doing today?
Brady Filbin:I'm doing amazing today. Thank you for having me.
Gabe Sousa:Oh, yeah. No problem. And this is a very special episode because normally these are produced on Fridays, but with the Masters, it being Master Week and all, with that being the whole celebration that it is, you know, we figured we'd get this one out early, just so we can get our picks in before, you know, these world class golfers tee off
Brady Filbin:on
Gabe Sousa:Thursday morning. Let's You know what? Let's just dive right in. We won't waste anyone any more time here. We're gonna start off with who we think is gonna have DraftKings allows you to bet on who will have the lowest round this week at Augusta.
Gabe Sousa:Brady, you have a pretty decisive pick here. It's someone who's had success in majors last year. Tell us why Bryson DeChambeau will have the lowest round
Brady Filbin:this I mean, just like, look at him. He's a walking stud.
Gabe Sousa:Sure.
Brady Filbin:I've never seen anybody hit the driver, like, farther than him. It's it's It's insane. He's really, like, robotic in how he plays. Sure. I think he's a safe play, just in the betting standpoint.
Brady Filbin:You know, US Open champ last year.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. Which I am going to this year, by the way. Really? Yeah, I'm going to the US Open, yeah. That's gonna be sweet.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah, so I have someone who is maybe on the worst side of the US Open, which is Rory McElroy. Obviously, we saw him miss the
Brady Filbin:Four opposites.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. Missed the, what, two, maybe three foot putt, you know?
Brady Filbin:He lift out, like, twice.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. One of us, I guess. But Yeah. I have Rory, and I have Rory for a very specific reason. He's playing world class golf right now.
Gabe Sousa:We know he's striking the ball really well. He's won twice on tour already this year. The problem is is he's had struggles at Augusta. And and he's, you know, he struggled to well, hasn't won a green jacket, which is a surprise because of how consistently well he's been golfing for the past, you know, years, right, past and so, I picked him to have the lowest round because I wanted to pick him to, you know, maybe a sneaky win, probably a top five finish, but I'm just scared just because he's shown us he can't perform in Augusta, Georgia. So, figured picking him as the lowest round might be safer, because we know he's a great talent, but he might choke on Sundays, which he's has in the past, so Definitely.
Gabe Sousa:You have DeChambeau, and you mentioned how DeChambeau's robotic. That's funny, because a robot printed his clubs, right? We know he the three d printed clubs, so
Brady Filbin:Oh, yeah.
Gabe Sousa:That should be fun. Those are two pretty safe picks there, but, I mean, they're great golfers, it's hard to bet against them. Both those guys can easily shoot in the fifties, right?
Brady Filbin:Oh, yeah. Not anybody can shoot, like, 10 plus over
Gabe Sousa:Exactly.
Brady Filbin:R, too. I mean, Masters, I mean, Augusta Nationals, just like
Gabe Sousa:Yeah, and that's
Brady Filbin:break you or break you.
Gabe Sousa:That's the other thing, too, is it's such a, you know, the Masters is such an important event. It's the most important event in golf all year, and and you'll see, like, the pressure gets to these guys. Right? Yeah. The weight of that green jacket bears on their shoulders before they've, you know, even put it on.
Gabe Sousa:So so picking two guys like Rory and Deshambu who've kinda, you know You can never get used to the pressure or nerves, but, you know, they've adapted to it. Right? They've shown that they can Well, Rory is a bad guy to say that because of the US Open last year. But Rory has won in the past. He's shown his experience, and I love those picks.
Gabe Sousa:Alright. We're gonna move into to something that's not as fun, which is the cut. And, a lot of these guys are just happy to be there, happy to be playing, but, you know, come Saturday, only 50 of the 95 in the field will be playing. Brady, we're gonna start off with you here. We you pick someone who is kinda on that line, toying that line of will they make the cut, will they make will they not?
Gabe Sousa:Tell me why Aaron Rye is gonna make the cut this year.
Brady Filbin:Yeah, I got Aaron Rye. I mean, he's just been so solid so far this year. He's always, like, he's always there, you know? He's always up at the top of the leaderboard. Just a lot of people, like, look over him, and he really, he plays good under pressure.
Brady Filbin:Mean, plays double glove
Gabe Sousa:golf Yeah, love that, love that.
Brady Filbin:It's like baseball, you know? I love it. Mhmm. He's had like three or four top 15 finishes this year. I mean, he's definitely due for, like, definitely a made cut in the Masters.
Gabe Sousa:Absolutely, Another
Brady Filbin:top 10 finish. I could see him, you know, putting up some really good numbers this year.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah, for sure. So, Ry comes in at minus two ten to make the cut. So that's a bit of a safer pick, but, you know, when you get to the guys who are like minus one ten, minus one fifty, it really becomes a coin toss, because a lot of these guys are playing in their first Masters, if, you know, and you really don't know, because they've played well all year, but you don't know if the pressure's gonna get to them, whatever. So, I have another safe pick, Tony Finau. First of all, love Tony Finau's personality, you I think he's a great guy.
Gabe Sousa:And we were talking before we started recording about him dislocating his ankle.
Brady Filbin:Yeah, that was a
Gabe Sousa:legendary moment. Yeah, no, and so, I guess that shows his love for the game, right?
Brady Filbin:Oh, yeah. I mean, he popped it right back into place.
Gabe Sousa:Absolutely. That's like, the way, saw a photo of that just came up. It was swollen, too. Bruised, all Yeah. Hey, but, you know, that's a trooper right there.
Gabe Sousa:That's a He's got that Spartan dog in him, I guess you could Oh, yeah, can see that. So, I have Phi now to make the cut, minus two fifty, again, safer pick, but with these guys, you know, you really wanna be confident and, like, okay. I believe this guy can make the cut. He's done it before. He's gonna do it again.
Gabe Sousa:So Aaron Ryan, Tony Feenal are locks to make the cut this weekend. Moving into the LIV. Sorry. DraftKings has a special where you can bet on the LIV, or live, whatever you say, player for to finish the best, right, to finish on top. And of the options they've given us, Brady and I both chose to go with Bryson DeChambeau.
Gabe Sousa:Obviously, you touched on how great of a player DeChambeau is, so I guess I'll kinda speak to that now. DeChambeau's had a really good year. And I'm not just talking about golf, I'm talking about his social media game, right? Oh, yeah. He's played with President Trump, his break 50 series, he's played with so many celebrities, and, he's been playing really good golf on top of that.
Gabe Sousa:The only name in front of Bryson DeChambeau on the sports books is Jon Rahm, and that's a great name. Really? But, I would personally, I would favor DeChambeau over Jon Rahm.
Brady Filbin:Easily. I mean, Rahm hasn't done anything since he's joined Liv
Gabe Sousa:No, I agree.
Brady Filbin:In my opinion.
Gabe Sousa:Ram had a really good 2023 season. Right?
Brady Filbin:Definitely. Yep.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. And then since he kind of moved to Liv, haven't heard his name too much, to be honest with you, and and DeChambeau's kind of taken over. Right? Another name another name I would look at is Brooks Koepka. Oh, yeah.
Gabe Sousa:He's been playing some pretty good golf, but I think DeChambeau, is a is the best pick, and that's at plus 400 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Brady, do you like any of these other names? Maybe Cam Smith, or are you just kinda sticking with Bryson DeChambeau here?
Brady Filbin:I mean, not a lot of the live players excite me, just because they're so used to playing three rounds of golf. Yeah. Because that's what they do in live golf, I don't watch it very often, but I just know. And, like, playing four rounds is a lot different, you know, you gotta lock in for one extra day, and I I really don't see anyone else getting close to the top of the leaderboard besides DeChambeau, because we've seen he can handle four rounds at a major
Gabe Sousa:Absolutely, yeah.
Brady Filbin:After joining Liv.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. And, yeah, so he's coming at plus 400 odds. I love that pick. I think that that might be, out of all these prop bets or specials that DraftKings has, that's the one I'm most confident in because I could see pricing the champagne not only topping the lift guys, but winning outright. So, plus 400 seems like a good steal to me.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. Speaking about winning outright, we're gonna go into the winners right now. So, we'll start off with our safe guys. We picked two people who we believe would be safe, or that are safer picks or favored to be in the top 10 or whatever at Augusta. And then we had three long shots, Maybe you look at their names, maybe not to win, but maybe a top five, top 10 finish, you can still get those odds on the sportsbook.
Gabe Sousa:So, Brady, we'll start off with the safe picks. You and I both picked Scheffler. Tell me about this Scottie Scheffler guy, you know, horns up, horns down, whatever you want. Yeah. I mean, he went to jail last year.
Gabe Sousa:Now, I will say, he hasn't had the best start to this year, but all the favor all the sportsbooks are still favoring him to win, you know? Does that speak to how how great he's been in the past couple years? He's the world number one golfer, right? Like, tell me why you think Scottie Sheffield has the best chance to win this tournament.
Brady Filbin:Oh, mean, he's so used to playing the Masters, and he plays it so well. I mean, even this year, he's he's he hasn't won anything, but he's had some really close finishes. Yeah. Like the Valspar, I mean, he almost forced a playoff with Minwoo Lee, let him cook.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah,
Brady Filbin:sure. And, but, I mean, it's Scottie Scheffler at the end of the day. He's just so such a safe player, and he's so consistent. He's he's just fun to watch too.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. Scottie Scheffler is such a great golfer. You know, we've seen it over the past year, even with, like I mentioned, his struggles earlier this year, but he is he is the heavy favorite right now. With these majors, a lot of times, don't have heavy favorites besides guys like Tiger and, you know, in the early February or whatever. But, this guy's gonna come in at plus four sixty.
Gabe Sousa:And even though that that's not, you know, plus thousand, what these people are looking for when betting on a winner, I think that is a pretty safe pick, because this is the biggest event of the year, and big players show up in big moments, right? But moving on to our second safer pick, Brady, I'll start with you. I love your pick. Tell me why Ludwig has a chance to wear the green jacket this year.
Brady Filbin:I mean, he had such a good showing last year. I mean, he's so he's got one of the best swings in golf. He really I really thought he had it last year, I was really rooting for him. He's another safe player. He doesn't like to you know, he doesn't have crazy meltdowns on the course, you know?
Gabe Sousa:Yeah, calm.
Brady Filbin:He's very yeah, very calm. I don't know, I just think he's a really solid
Gabe Sousa:Yeah, and he's been there before, so it's, you know, it's not as scary to take him, because he can obviously do it again. Ludwig's gonna come in at plus 1,700 odds on DraftKings. I have someone who has been great over the past, really, three years, and I expect him to win a major very soon, potentially even the Masters, and that's Colin Morikawa. Colin did not have a great showing so far this year in the PGA suit PGA season, and also in the TGL, where he teamed up with Tiger and got second to last with, I believe you said, Tom Kim, right? Not a great showing there, but a lot of great fun memories, and when you're having fun, you play better, I guess.
Gabe Sousa:So, you know, Colin, obviously great personality. Taylor made athlete with Tiger on his team for TGL, lots of great videos, you know, of them just kind of bonding. Very likable offer. Very likable. So maybe Tiger, you know, has passed the torch to Colin.
Gabe Sousa:We'll see. I have him at plus 1,500 odds as of right now on DraftKings to win. I believe that that's a pretty safe pick. You know? On Sundays, you'll see him consistently, you know, even if he's not winning.
Gabe Sousa:In the bottom right of your television, he's in the, you know, fifth place, fourth place, third place. This year, in the Arnold Palmer, he placed second to Russell Henley. In a heartbreaking way, Russell Henley chipped in for Eagle on '16, and Collin wasn't able to close or, to, yeah, to close that gap. So he's been close, and Collin is due for a major, and I believe that he can absolutely take down the green jacket at Augusta this Yep. Alright.
Gabe Sousa:Moving on to the long shots here. And I don't wanna say great minds think alike, but we had a large pool of players to pick from, and Brady and I, out of the three that we picked, two of them were the same. We're gonna start off with Willie Z, as Brady has been calling him. Yeah. Brady, tell me why you love this guy so much.
Brady Filbin:I mean, if you've been following the Masters for the past, like, three years, you I mean, you'll see his name at the top of the leaderboard. He's finished top 10 in the last three
Gabe Sousa:Yeah.
Brady Filbin:Masters tournaments. Yeah. His first ever Masters appearance, I think he was runner-up in 2021.
Gabe Sousa:'20 '20 '1,
Brady Filbin:yeah. Which I think that kinda kick started my I started to follow him and, you know, he's just really solid golfer. He's battling an injury, which could be a problem, but I feel like he was battling an injury last year, and he still placed top 10.
Gabe Sousa:Phenom dislocated his foot? I mean, does
Brady Filbin:he Yeah.
Gabe Sousa:See if he has that dog in him.
Brady Filbin:No, I think he does.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. Well, another guy who has that dog in him, maybe a little chef in him as well, Min Woo Lee, we both picked. Tell me about this Min Woo Lee guy. First of all, the best name in golf potentially. I mean, Tiger Woods is a pretty good name, but
Brady Filbin:Oh, yeah.
Gabe Sousa:But best personality in golf, right? I mean, his social media presence, his, you know, his willingness to have the fans be a part of the game.
Brady Filbin:Woozy's cooking school.
Gabe Sousa:Exactly, exactly. And number three, obviously, is golf game. How do those three factors contribute to him potentially winning this week?
Brady Filbin:I I feel like when he's hot, he's red hot. Yeah. Like, he's never he's never just, like, in the middle. He's either really, really good or just a little short.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. Speaking of short, his short game, what do they call him, Doctor. Chip Chipinski? Something like Something like that. I mean, his short game is, you know, world class, obviously, you know, we know he's a great player.
Gabe Sousa:We'll move into your third pick, sorry, I don't remember who it was. Who was your
Brady Filbin:third Sahith Thigala?
Gabe Sousa:Yes, tell me about him.
Brady Filbin:You know him, he's a very modest player, but he's really, really good. Like, he's had some really low rounds. Last year, he should've won a couple of the majors. He was near the top of the Yeah. I'm trying to remember.
Gabe Sousa:Well, he also topped the TGL this year, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So if that means anything to you guys, he came out on top in the first ever season of the is it the Tiger Golf League?
Gabe Sousa:Is that what the TGL is?
Brady Filbin:I don't even know.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah, I don't know either. I don't know either, but
Brady Filbin:He's getting better and better every year.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. Know? Sahith Takala. Great name as well, too.
Brady Filbin:Fun to
Gabe Sousa:say, yeah. Well, my last guy is someone who is really do, and has only played in one Master so far. It's Akshay Patia, and he can crush the ball. He's a skinny dude. Oh, He's, honestly, he's built like a twig, but he pipes his drives.
Gabe Sousa:He has really long arms, you know, I think he's a fairly tall dude.
Brady Filbin:I think he weighs like one hundred and forty pounds.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah, yeah, he's the light But, lefty, shout out to my lefties out there, including Brady. Yeah, so I have here that his first ever Masters he played in last year, he placed thirty fifth, which, you know, your first Masters, making the cut and then moving up 15 spots, that's not terrible. And then just a few months later, he would tie for sixteenth at the US Open. And I think that, you know, maybe not to well, I think he's gonna win a Major soon. I believe he won once on tour last year, and I believe he definitely can win a Major soon, but I would look more towards Akshay, you know, maybe the make the cut bet, or maybe a top 10 or top five finish, if you're feeling dangerous.
Gabe Sousa:But Akshay is at 5,500 odds to win, Minwoo Lee is at 46, and Will Zalatoris is at 4,100 odds to win the Masters this year. So, that's pretty much it for now. We're gonna I wanna build a little parlay here, though. Brady, out of all the things we've gone over, what's what are you most confident in? If you had to put some of your US currency on something, give me some of these picks you're feeling confident in.
Brady Filbin:Oh, I mean, like you said earlier, the Bryson DeChambeau, low live players, definitely a really safe bet. I mean, you're I'm looking at all these live players.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah.
Brady Filbin:And a lot of them are old. I mean, Patrick Reed, he's, you know, past champ. Most of these lip players are actually past champs. That's the only reason they're playing.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah.
Brady Filbin:But I'm just thinking currently, Bryson DeChambeau has easily been the best.
Gabe Sousa:His name seems to jump out, you know? Seems to catch you, and the fact that he's not favored makes it even more juicy, right?
Brady Filbin:Yeah.
Gabe Sousa:Okay, so, well, Brady takes that, and I'm gonna say I'm gonna say I'm pretty confident in Tony Finau making the cut. Really? I think that that's my safest pick. Like I've mentioned before, you know, a lot of the guys that are fringe to make the cut, you know, as their first, maybe second masters, and there's these young guys that, you know, the pressure's gonna get to them. Feenal's been here before.
Gabe Sousa:Right? And he's proven that he can play good golf. So when you have a veteran who's good at golf at minus two fifty or less odds, it's something you have to take. Yeah. So together, we're gonna have DeChambeau to top the live players, Finau to make the cut, and you know what?
Gabe Sousa:We'll throw in we'll throw in a Xalatoris top Yes. Top you wanna say top 10 finish?
Brady Filbin:Oh, yeah.
Gabe Sousa:Top 10 finish. Don't have the I don't have the odds up for that. But, yeah. So that's it's gonna be Brady and I's parlay for the week. We're gonna have Xalatoris top 10 finish, Deschambault, the top of the Liv players, and Fenouts make the cut.
Gabe Sousa:Should be a nice little parlay.
Brady Filbin:Oh,
Gabe Sousa:yeah. Hopefully, you win some money this weekend. Brady, that's that's pretty much it for today. It's a shorter episode, but, man, I'm excited for the Masters. Why don't you show the people at home, those of you listening to the podcast first you can't see, but he has his Augusta hat on.
Gabe Sousa:He's looking very nice over I'm
Brady Filbin:glad I bring it out.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah. Anything else you wanna add? You know, like, you doing for the Masters this week? How
Brady Filbin:You know, I'll probably be watching it on my phone in class. I don't think I'm gonna be doing much school work.
Gabe Sousa:Just a
Brady Filbin:lot of tuning in on the Masters.
Gabe Sousa:Hey, you know, it's a tradition like no other. Exactly. That's what I hear. That's the word on the street. Alright, Brady.
Gabe Sousa:I appreciate you joining me today. As always
Brady Filbin:Thank you for having me.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah, no problem. Hey, first episode, pretty good. Hey, you know what? Let's good job, Brady. Thank you.
Gabe Sousa:Yeah, great job over there. Great job over there. As always, I'd like to thank Impact Studios here at WDBM eighty eight point nine FM for allowing me to use this gorgeous studio and gorgeous setup here in the camera, so you at home can see my ugly face and Brady's handsome face over there. Until next time, stay sharp, keep hedging your bets.