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Hi, I'm Ella Gurfinkel, your host of the AskElla Show and senior loan officer at Fairway Independent Mortgage. On my podcast, I cut through the noise to bring you honest conversations about real estate, mortgages, and financial planning.
I interview industry experts to tackle everything from homebuying basics to complex topics like reverse mortgages, trusts, and market trends. With decades of experience, I'm passionate about dispelling myths and providing clear, actionable advice.
Whether you're buying your first home, refinancing, or planning for retirement, I'm here to help you make informed decisions. Join me for straightforward talk about real estate and beyond!
Stop ordering Uber Eats and having a Starbucks every morning. You may never be able to get the house you want. The lower price homes obviously are hopping. We have a lot of new construction happening that can be a recipe for disaster for the whole thing to implode. But it's worth having the conversation. Oh, I really want to buy a house. I do really well financially. Let me pull a crystal ball out. Entrylevel home on the west side. Single family at least 500,000. Market changes. It's the most affordable time for a buyer right now to purchase. Give me a good reason why. Wait, how much is your car payment? And that's a significant number. Like, where's the logic in that? Those are all really good topics. I think we all would like to know.
Hi there. Welcome to another installment of the Ask Ella Show. And today with me, I'm so happy to introduce Michelle Peralta with Fox Real Estate, part of Keller Williams in Portland. Uh she's actually in Scottsdale at the moment. So we are live in the studio and Rashelle is a great friend, a great referral partner. I am incredibly like not worthy because she is an amazing amazing amazing agent, but also she's a marathon runner. Oh. Oh my goodness, Ella. That is so sweet. Those are such kind words. And uh yes, this was um a very unexpected impromptu kind of get together, but it just made sense. Uh totally. Yeah. When in Scottdale, got to talk real estate with Ella. Exactly. You got to do it. And we're going to talk about the Portland real estate market today because that's really where the business has been for us. and we're going to talk about what's happening, what's hopping, what's not, and what's causing the hopping in the knot. Those are all really good topics. I think we all would like to know. So, what I'm seeing a lot still in Portland is the lower price homes obviously are hopping with multiple offers and with basically a line around the corner and and then some. Mhm. and they're still very hard to come by. So, what is the lowest price point somebody can possibly count on getting on the entry level? If it's a single family home, that is we're not talking condos at the moment, but what can somebody hope for in the entrylevel homes? And where are those entry- level homes? So, I for me, my business is all over the Portland metro, but primarily on the west side. So, um I would say Okay, let's talk west side. West side. Yeah. So, um entrylevel home on the west side, single family, you are looking at at least 500,000 and that would be in certain parts of Beaverton. If you want to be in Toalitin, Tiger, we're talking more 575 600. Thanks. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, there's a lot of that. It's a very competitive space. Um I think we're seeing a lot of a lot of folks um still in those multiple offer situations for the first-time home buyer. Um we have a lot of new construction happening. Um even at that price point, you're looking more at like attached homes that are not very big. No. With without a yard, they have the kind of the planned community, which is great. you know, they have the dog park and um place for the kids to play. Usually, your garage is on the back side of the home. Um it just doesn't allow for a ton of personal space. And I feel like a lot of people who have been renting so long, say an apartment, um they're really excited to get into a home with a with a yard and um privacy. And privacy. Mhm. All right. Good to know. I mean, I'm still seeing with some of my clients in the 400s, probably towards the higher side of 400s, but they are really a little further out typically. Uh we're talking outskirts of Beaverton, Aloa, maybe into Hillsboro, but they're so few and far between. It's really hard to compete on those. Mhm. And the flip side of it too is with a lot of those homes, what I'm also seeing is those homes falling out on inspections because the lower price points also come with strings attached. They do. They do. That's why it's so important to have, you know, a really good team on your side like you. Um, good agent. Thank you. An inspector. Yes. Yes. The inspector that's really going to get in there. Um, but I feel like even just the agent on the other side, the listing agent and the buyer's agent really need to collaborate on on making goals happen for each of their clients, especially if there are issues on the home. Um, you know, the the the great thing about that is there's usually there's usually a fix. I mean, there's fixes for everything. There's always a fix. Exactly. If all parties want to do it, and that's where the collaboration is so important. And that's actually one of the pieces that I talk about constantly in my video content, whether it's on the podcast, whether it's on YouTube or Instagram or LinkedIn, is this collaboration piece that you and I have run into where the other side just doesn't want to play ball kind of. Um, it's and real estate is never all take. There's got to be a give. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's definitely it's definitely a team effort. Uh, for sure. Um, and besides besides maybe having one person who doesn't one party that doesn't want to to give, there's also, you know, I think the average real estate agent did maybe two transactions last year. Um, yeah. Yeah. Nationwide. Um, and I feel like as a consumer, checking reviews, Google reviews, Zillow reviews, um, even asking your agent like, "How many transactions have you done? How many did you do last year?" because that that experience is really going to come into play when it comes down to those pieces of like negotiating repairs and credits. Um because if you get an agent on the other side that really has no experience that um can be a a recipe for disaster for the whole thing to implode. It absolutely can be and I can tell horror stories about that and I'm sure you can as well because experience does matter and even though it can feel like it's riding a bike, it really is not. It's uh everything changes. The rules change, the regulations change, the market changes. So there's so much that goes on that if you're not living it and breathing it that you can miss out on. Absolutely. And that can cause an absolute disaster as a result. Yeah. Yeah. Speak speaking of which um you know the the buyer exclusive agreement that they put into place that N did I can't believe it'll be 2 years this August. Insane. Seems like yesterday. Yes. I And I think that the goal was essentially for you know perhaps buyers to pay their own agent commission and sellers not to do that any longer. But how many buyers can actually do that out of pocket? Exactly. It just increases their their the price of the home that much more. Um what we're actually seeing is a reverse effect is uh the buyer agent commission actually has gone up since that that went into effect instead. Yeah. Yeah. Go figure. But I really think it's in a way it was good for the industry because it just sets really clear expectations from the very get-go. Um, I know for for my business, those those pieces, those elements of the transactions were always stated upfront with the seller and the buyer. Um, so it really didn't change much except for having the actual piece of paper. I think it even the playing field actually quite a bit because if before a buyer could hop agents Mhm. or could work with 10 different agents to go look at different properties. now having to sign that agreement. I'm not saying that it necessarily ties the buyer into the agent or creates loyalty because nothing can create loyalty in people who are not loyal by nature. But it'll but it has even the playing field because no agent can show a house without the written agreement. And that agreement can be for one house or it can be for well specific house or it can be for a period of time or it can be exclusive for a period of time. But it even the playing field because honestly the buyer broker agreements always have existed. It just not many real estate brokers and agents have exercised them. I completely agree with you. It is uh it it's a really good thing for my business for sure and for everybody else's frankly. Yeah. Because now you can't really have anybody undercut no each other as much as they used to be able to. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's it's a definitely a good thing. I've heard rumors, nothing official, that they might do away with it. Um, which is kind of funny how they did uh they tried to do away with the the love letter, the appeal letter to the seller. Um, but that did get overturned as well. Um, those those elements I feel like are like you said, something that you always have to be a part of and in the in the industry and listening to what the changes are. I mean, just the forums, for example, changed so much. Um, rates, I mean, I'm I'm obviously always calling you to ask you what's what what do you think's going to happen with rates this next year? Let me pull a crystal ball out. I mean, realistically, you know, the rates were actually trending down until the Iran thing happened. And now we've gone in the opposite direction. Nonetheless, the overall trend will be back to down once all the geopolitical fears settle once the the price of oil goes back down. So there is no reason for the rates to trend up other than the fear of porn in the markets and in the media. Mhm. What are they saying? Low sixes throughout this year. Low sixes throughout this year. Um most likely some were high fives uh next year. So fingers crossed because every time what they say every time the rates drop by 1% that's um extra 5 million eligible buyers can be attracted to the market. It doesn't mean that all of them will but that's potentially five more million people who could afford a lower rate and that's a sign significant number about that. Let me ask you, do you do you recommend your clients lock in their rate or do you kind of play it by what's happening geopolitically during that transaction with your depends? It it's actually an amazing question and look at you flipping the table and asking me questions on my own show. Uh but it depends. There is unfortunately in my realm there is no cut and dry a lot of the time. Uh-huh. It's I'd say 3 weeks ago the advice was let's float, let's not lock, let's get closer to the closing date and see where it takes us as the rates were trending down because every day the cost of the rate has gone down incrementally. Now pretty much I would advise everybody just lock out right if you're happy with the rate and unfortunately we'll look at refinancing down the pike but that could change on a dime. Mhm. Um, it really all depends on the client's tolerance because some people don't want to risk it one way or the other. And when the rate is locked, it protects you both ways, both from rate going up and from rate going down. So, if you're locked today and the rates get lower, well, oops. But if the rates go up, you're staying pretty. So, there is really no oneizefits-all. It really is an individual risk tolerance for every single consumer just like um going fixed rate or going a 51 or a 71 or a 101 ARM is some people have the tolerance some don't but it's worth having the conversation. Yeah, just curious just uh No, that's a great question actually and it's a very timely question for that matter. Mhm. Mhm. So, back to the Portland market. What I'm hearing is, and what I'm seeing is that the homes, let's say it's not the entry- level home that gets humped in offers on it. Let's say it's actually a home that's priced on the market, again, not your entry- level point. What is the likelihood of that home selling fast versus not? And what drives that? Well, so two questions in one. Okay, that's that's a likelihood. and what drives it? Excellent question. I we had talked about entry- level homes, those being very hot. Um, you know, COVID interest rates locked a lot of people in those, you know, less than 3%. The lock in effect. The lock in effect. And we're starting to see that break loose a little bit. You could Yes. Yes. Yes. Hallelujah. Yes. And it's just start it's just starting. Um, it's just starting. You could see that with the amount of inventory we we have in the Portland metro right now. So, how much has inventory changed? It has changed a lot. I mean, gosh, we were I remember a time when we were hovering about 2 months inventory, less than 3 months inventory. Uh, and then versus the balanced market is what? 6 months. So, anything below six. Mhm. Anything below six um is the sellers market is a sellers market essentially. But Portland's got such a small urban growth boundary line that it's it's we've never I don't know when we've ever seen a balanced market. It I can remember one actually for probably going back a whole 20 years. Yeah. Yeah. This is actually more inventory than we've seen in 15 years. Um I would say January we were at we were hovering over 4 months inventory at the beginning of the year. Um I feel like several listings went off the market during the holidays and then relisted in January. So that's why we saw that influx in um inventory. There was others who did what I did. Yeah. Yeah. A lot a lot a lot of um a lot of homes did that. But then if you look at February's numbers, it dropped down to I think it was 3.6 months. So huge decline. Um but the pending sales uh from 2025 to 2026 are up 10%. That's interesting. It It is an interesting stat. It really is. But I I mean, back to, you know, those lock in rates, I think what's happening is um those first-time home buyers that were there, they're not they're not wanting to move up cuz usually we would see, you know, this six maybe or seven, seven, eight, uh $100,000 homes be a second home. But a lot of people are kind of just staying put in their first move up home, not a second home. Not second home that way. Not like not out like the second home I'd like to have in Arizona, but uh the the second to happen. Just say the word. Yes. Um No, the second home as in like move up home. Yeah. Yeah. But we are still starting to see that shake loose. Um I mean really right now is is probably the most it's the most affordable time for a buyer right now to purchase at least in the Portland metro. I heard an interesting statistic lately is that even with the lock in effect, which is loosening up pretty much everywhere. But now there's actually more people with interest rates at six or above Oh, yeah. than there is people at three or below. I did hear that, too. Which is crazy to me. But that also I think spells good news for the market because that means that there will be more homes on the market coming up because again those people who are locked in at the threes will eventually shake free and the people in the sixes will still exercise the move up or down depending on their family needs. What do you think? I think that's spot on. I I I really do think that's that's what we'll see happen. Um, it is an interesting stat though and I wonder I wonder if it's just time that you know so many new people have bought a home since 2021 or 2022. Um, cuz what rates got into the sixes? What late 2022 or early 2023? Uh, early 20. So they started climbing um somewhere past March of 2022. Mhm. Mhm. And that climb was ridiculously fast and ridiculously steep. I remember we we went from the twos to the threes to the fours to the fives and then we ended up in the eights in what 24 25 a couple of times. So that was pretty nutty. I haven't seen the eights since good god. Um, I think the only two times I've seen the eights when I first got in the business in 96, the rates were above eight and Will did the happy dance in the office when the rates dropped below eight. I mean, we literally danced in the office. I mean, that was I want to say mid 96. And then I, if my memory doesn't deceive me, in ' 03, uh, we also saw a pretty sharp increase in rates, but not to the eight. So, I want to say there's only been a couple three times at most in my 30-year career that I've seen the rates climb over 8%. Wow. Wow. Pretty insane. Yeah. It sounds like you've you've been riding the wave for a while. Roller coaster. Yeah. Yeah. I think a wave is a too nice of a description for too sweet. Too sweet. Too smooth. It's been more of a choppy as hell roller coaster. You know, whatever goes up comes down and vice versa. So, it's been interesting. Yeah. I mean, with that, you know, with that being said, too, that notion of the those, you know, more sixes, rates, and buyers and sellers, um, things shaking loose, I'm also interested to see what happens with all the new construction. I mean, they they've the urban growth boundary line has been expanded and they are building so many homes. Um, you know, both out, you know, past uh the Tiger, Sherwood area, right? Everything past Springville in Bethany has been built up and it's like massive new new build cities and Gresham too. Yeah. Hillsboro. Uh what is it the the big the biggest planned urban development um out in in Hillsboro Crossing Crossing? Yep. Yep. Yeah. Yeah. That is uh there's a ton of homes out there. I I But the price points are insane. The price points are still insane. Yeah. I I wonder at what point though we'll see. But really really looking at it like holistically, the West Coast in general is expensive. Yes. Uh and the Portland metro still is I mean the most affordable city to buy in. Even at the prices that it has or commands, it's still the most affordable city on the West Coast, which is kind of actually scary. Mhm. It is. Well, and I don't, you know, I don't think that I don't think we're seeing um home values decreasing. We're just we're just leveling out on the acceleration. So, it's just decelerating. But I really do feel like home ownership and, you know, equity that that buyers have, homeowners have, they're only going to increase. I believe in that. I mean, I've always said when people tell me I don't ever believe in the chicken little sky is falling, the fear porn from the Suzie Ormans of of the news because it's always like when was Suz Orman actually positive about the real estate or housing market. Like, throw me an example in the comments, please, if you can find one. Because in all the years that she's been around, I've never seen or heard anything positive when it came to buying a home come out of her or finances for that matter. But fear sells. So I always say that whenever the price growth slows, that's kind of like you're going 100 miles an hour on the freeway. Mhm. But you're not hitting a hard stop. You're slowing down to like 50 m an hour or 30 m an hour. You're still moving forward, just not as fast. So the 20% appreciation growth that we saw during the two crazy co years that was unsustainable and it wasn't normal. So yeah it's normal for the prices to taper but to all the people who say the prices will fall and you know the the market will you know crash collapse whatever give me a good reason why. Yeah, those those those dear buyers or clients, hopeful clients, I I really, you know, I I know several of them. Uh same. Yeah. I wish there was something that, you know, some kind of like tangible um hope that I could give them that, you know, that they could grasp onto because it's like they're they're watching the market change every day and they have been for years. And it's like, why do you think for some reason that all of a sudden prices are just going to crash? Like they haven't. They're not going to. They're not going to. Yeah. I mean realistically for those who try to argue with me and okay it is a personal opinion but it's also a personal opinion based on 30 years of experience based on having watched last 30 years of the markets based on the historical data that there were only two instances in all of a 100red years of history looking back 30 of them mine is there were only two times when the home values crashed crashed in the last 100 years. And that was on most recent memory that was 07 through 010 or you know 2011 housing collapse. Well, it wasn't really a housing collapse. It was actually caused by the backroom dealings on Wall Street. Let's call it what it is. It wasn't necessarily the housing. It was the financial minations with the markets, the repeal of GlassSteagall Act, um, and so many other economic and historical factors, but not the housing market itself. And then the one before it was the oil and gas crisis in the 80s. The rest of the time, tracking back to the Great Depression of 1929, the home values have always gone up, especially throughout the recessions. Don't believe me? Look up the Fred stats. Fred is the St. Louis uh Fed office uh that puts out all kinds of fun statistics and that's one of them that the home prices home values have actually gone up in the recessions as opposed to down which is contrary to popular belief. So with home values never coming back down what makes people think that they will crash? I mean everything has gone up. The cost of labor, the cost of materials, the cost of gas, everything literally. So again, when it cost you more to build a home today, how would the values go down? Like where's the logic in that? Just a little bit of logic. Yeah. Yeah. Goes a long way. Yeah, it does. And I feel like just like there's a person out there for everyone, I feel like there's a home out there for everyone, there's a mortgage loan product out there for everyone. Yeah. Yeah. You just have to like be you just have to want it. Basically, you have to want it more than we want it for you. Yeah. kind of. Yeah, exactly. Because we do have occasionally a buyer where we want Yeah, we want the end result more for their sake than they want for themselves. Yeah, I could see that. I am very busy these days, which I love. I love that. Um, so I I was I mean I was going to say I don't have time to chase down people like that. Um, and it's actually okay to Yeah. And because what most clients, most people don't understand is that with the buyer broker agreements and whatever pieces of paper you may sign to hire an agent to work with you. And with us mortgage people, we can't hold your feet to the fire actually. Um, none of us get paid until closing. Yes. So essentially, we're working for you for free. So yes, it is okay. It's not harsh. Not in my book anymore, but it's not harsh to say that you don't have time to chase everybody. Same with me because we have to dedicate our time, which all we got is time. We have to dedicate our time and do best by the clients who want it the most. Absolutely. Who are the most serious and the most dedicated. This is not to say that we don't look we don't work with people to do their long-term home buying planning. We do. If you're of the belief that the sky is falling, housing market is going to crash, then yeah, we kind of not going to dedicate as much time to you because time is all we got. Yeah. And this is not being mean. No, no, it's not. And there's definitely a difference. Like you said, there's a difference between somebody who's just waiting for the market to crash and somebody who just might not be ready. And I love meeting people where they are when it in terms of like even if it's a year or two. I have I have a family though. There it is. Because we can lay out a plan. I call it the brick road. Mhm. And we can get them ready and they will make less mistakes than somebody who's jumping into the deep end of the pool like I want to buy right now. I found a perfect house. But then it turns out after the fact that they're actually not ready financially. So that avoids a lot of heartache. I had some clients I met uh gosh it was a little over two years ago. Sweet family, the cute little boy. I think he was just maybe two years old at the time. and um we went shopping. Uh they got some quotes on loans and just they weren't comfortable with their monthly mortgage payments. So they said, "Well, I'd like to save they want to save up some money." So they did and they called me. Uh we stayed in touch and they closed on their very first home. Um I saw their little boy. He was so big. He wasn't a toddler anymore. And it was just I mean probably one of the greatest joys um that I get to experience is is that story. At the end of the day, we're not saying or what I said earlier about, you know, our time is what we got. Yes. And yes, we do get paid at the end of the transaction, but it doesn't mean that the paycheck is all that it's important to us. Because in my practice, and I know in Relle's practice, there are people who all they see is not a consumer, not a client, but a paycheck. I have never treated my clients like that. I know Relle doesn't treat her clients like that. We help our clients after the closing. They feel comfortable reaching out to us after the transaction has been over for a year like Anika did. Yes. Yes. Because they know that we care about their well-being more so about than about the sale. But again, there's only so many working hours in a day. And yes, we don't get paid until it's done. We do have families to support. We just don't look at you, our clients. Yes. As a walking, talking bag of money or a paycheck. That's the big difference. No. No. I think I think one rewarding, you know, aspect of this job and I'm sure for you, too, is getting to know people and their story and um helping them achieve their goals and, you know, getting to have like a friendship uh long-term friendship. Long-term friendship afterwards. Yeah, absolutely. So, what is not moving in the Portland area? Circling back to that, what is moving and what is not hopping? Well, I would say so since there is so much inventory, I would say buyers are uh very picky right now. We're seeing um we're seeing homes that if they're on a busy street, if there is not a yard, if their kitchen needs to be updated, just if there is one blemish on the checklist, we're seeing those sit. But if the home is priced correctly, it is has a yard, it's not on a busy street, it's been updated, those those are still those are definitely still selling. Good to know. Yeah, good to know. So, Portland, the market is not crashing, contrary to popular belief. It is still the underpriced major city of the West Coast, just like it has been for the last 10 years. Yes, the values have gone up. Yes, the price have gone up and a lot of people have been unfortunately priced out. But that's where elections have consequences and the suppression of the urban growth boundary for so many years has played its role in rising in rising prices. Mhm. Mhm. So when you complain to us about the prices going up or the values increasing, well, we didn't create it at the end of the day. Not our fault. So, what you can do though to help yourself get into a home. I would say start off with talking with myself and Ella. Um, Ella can definitely help you with getting your, you know, finding out what you qualify for or if there's stuff you need. You know, a lot of people have stuff, you know, that they need to work on and and coming up with that game plan. Um, and then, you know, I would say stop ordering Uber Eats and um maybe and having a Starbucks every morning. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, buy buy an espresso machine, please. You'll save yourself a lot of money. Or the $700 car payment. I mean, I've seen those, you know, client comes, oh, I really want to buy a house and do really well financially, and it's like, wait, how much is your car payment? Deep side. Yes. See, you Yes. Drive your Toyota Corolla until, you know, you close on your house. Yes. Yes. And even if you can't afford that nice car, but is right. I mean, wait until after you close on the house because you put the car first. It's like horse cart in this case, house car. You put the car first. You may never be able to get the house you want. You want the house first, then buys a nice car. I went to my son's apartment just recently and there was somebody with a cyber truck there. And I'm like, what? I just And it's for that. Well, and and that's actually a long-term rental. Yeah. because that cyber truck came in before the court. Yes, that was actually amazing advice and that is something that I've been preaching for ages now is that if you even think about buying a home down the pike, it's never too early. You want to start talking to the right professionals outright. You want to talk to Rashelle. You want to talk to me. And I try to align myself with like-minded people like myself. I never pressure. I never push. Rashelle never pressures and never pushes. And that's one of the reasons we've hit it off so well. We communicate. We overcommunicate. We keep our clients on the loop. And we'll continue doing that for many years to come. Love working with you for that reason. Right back at you. And if you're looking for a home, especially on the west side of Portland, Rashelle is your girl. And if you're looking for a mortgage, hit me up. And with that, if you have any questions about the Portland market, leave us a comment, leave us your feedback. We'd love to hear it. And we'll see you on the next one. See you. Thank youelle. Thank you.