Exploring the frontiers of Technology and AI
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This week, one of the top AI researchers in the world responsible for building
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OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropics Claude models announced that humanity has about
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a 10% chance that we are going to die over the next decade due to AI.
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Now, one of these posts went so viral that it got over 150 million views,
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which is the most viewed post on X in forever. And it was shared across every
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major media publication.
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Now, the question becomes, if AI is so fatal to humanity, why on earth do we
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keep building the things? Open
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AI and Anthropic are in a race to build artificial general intelligence.
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But if it certifies that humanity is going to die, should we be building the
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thing? We're going to be unpacking all of this and a lot more.
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Now, the weirdest part about this bit of news is it comes paired with breakthrough
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research where the model that is supposedly meant to kill you is also solving
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the world's hardest mathematical problems, which have existed for 200 plus years.
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And in the third topic, which it's Josh's most exciting topic,
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if I had to guess, Apple announced a suite of new hardware devices,
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which includes the iPhone Duo, a new foldable iPhone, which he may or may not
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be buying. We don't know yet.
Josh:
We have so much to talk about with Apple. I cannot you better stick around for
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this because I've been waiting for my Apple moment for so long.
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But before we get to Apple, we can start with the Doomer take.
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This breaks my heart that it has 150 million views because all people want to
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talk about is how the world's going to end.
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And it's like there are these two opinions that are juxtaposed against each other that are...
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Similar in their belief, but like contrasting in people's public opinions of
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them in the sense that we have been talking about reaching the singularity for
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a very long time. We have been talking about all the sci-fi futuristic versions
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of reality in which we are heading to.
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In fact, a lot of companies are claiming, OpenAI included, that like,
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hey, we've reached AGI. We are like here.
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And this is not a new or novel thing that we haven't been working towards.
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The concept of AGI has been around for a very long time.
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The concept of the singularity has been around for far longer.
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And we've kind of thought out all the implications of what that looks like through
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the sci-fi books, through the movies you watch, through the TV shows.
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And for some reason now, someone coming from within the labs is saying it out
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loud and people are kind of freaking out.
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And it seems to me, and we could talk about this a little bit,
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we could put our tinfoil hats on, that there is some sort of coordinated effort
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to push this message forward.
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I mean, one of the things that we should know with this account,
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Jacob Coxon, it is a young account with only one post on it.
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And the only post is this one tweet. And when I saw it, the account did not
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have many followers. Now it has a quarter of a million followers that's gained overnight.
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It is viewed by 150 million people and close to.
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And 750,000 likes. I've never seen this type of activity by a single post in my life.
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And we've spent a lot of time on the X platform. So it's interesting to see
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how it's been picked up. And what was interesting is a lot of people were doing
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kind of diligence on the dynamics of this post, where it got picked up, how it got picked up.
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And a lot of the earlier amplification came from within the Doomer groups,
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people who have been kind of pushing the scared narrative.
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Narrative and it's also written very well too it's like this is written ejaz
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you and i like we spend a lot of time trying to optimize posts like how do we
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get people to care how do we get people interested
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this is like a hot post this is written like a writer like this is this is someone
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who's trained at the art of x not someone who's just like ripping something
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off the side for the first time so it's an interesting thread i mean we can
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also talk about the thread but i find the kind of tinfoil hat conspiracies to be interesting as well.
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So the theme here is ai is going to kill us all. And you're right that this
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is a narrative that has been talked about for a while.
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But the question is, why is it important now? So before I put my tinfoil hat
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on, let's talk about like what he actually describes.
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He basically says, listen, the researchers both at Anthropic and OpenAI have
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been incredibly reckless when it comes to aligning the model.
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Now, if we just take that statement for what it is and look at the existing
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evidence that proves that, you don't have to look too far.
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Look at the OpenAI Hugging Faces incident, which we've covered one,
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two, maybe even three times on the show in the last two weeks because there's
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a lot of episodes. We have a lot of episodes on this because there's new secretive
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information which keeps getting revealed.
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The point is, that AI model was meant to be internally tested,
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but it decided to break out and hack a bunch of software suites against humans' intentions. So this
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Technically be classified as a misaligned AI. So the question then becomes,
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You know, what are these two labs?
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And let's be real here, there's only two major labs that are building the frontier
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models doing about this. And the answer, unfortunately, is not very much.
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He goes, I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing
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pre-training research at both OpenAI and Anthropic.
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Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self improving
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superintelligence and gambling with our lives.
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He then goes on to kind of post a very extensive thread, giving examples of
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what the researchers are doing and why they're just not very incentivized to
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kind of build a more aligned model. And the thesis can be broken down to this.
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OpenAI believes it needs to build AGI, an AGI-like model, so that they can be
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the moral arbiters of this model. They're not going to kill anyone with this model.
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Anthropic is doing the same thing because they don't believe that OpenAI is
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going to do the same thing.
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So they're racing to build the thing that could potentially kill us all under
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the precedence that they're going to be the morally ethical people that are
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going to keep everyone safe.
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Now, if you ask for my personal opinion, I don't think a world where two model
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providers kind of like trusting everyone to say like, hey, we're going to build
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the safest model is the way to go forward.
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I think we have to have a world where we have hundreds of models.
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And thankfully, that is the world that I think we're heading towards.
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But the question is, okay, why did this post in particular gain so much virality?
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Well, it was reposted by other legitimate AI researchers. Now,
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listen, if this was reposted and commented on by any Joe Schmo,
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I wouldn't really be talking about this on this show today.
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I was scrolling through my timeline over the last couple of days,
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and the people that are in the labs building these models have these opinions.
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And it's not just Anthropic about Anthropic. It's not just OpenAI about OpenAI.
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They're cross-pollinating. They're commenting on each other's posts saying,
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yeah, honestly, this is what we're seeing in the labs as well.
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I see other frontier researchers from other labs that aren't Anthropic in OpenAI
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also commenting, saying, yep, we see the same thing. We believe that these AI models can kill us.
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So this is from the head of alignment at Anthropic. He goes,
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Jacob is correct here. We really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans.
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I personally think it is greater than 10% within the next decade.
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And there are a slew of other posts that basically confirm this.
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Now, the tinfoil hat conspiracy is within the first 20 minutes of this post
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going live, Josh, and remember, this is the first post that this account ever made.
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It got reposted by three individuals that are very closely associated to a Duma-esque
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publicly funded corporation.
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Now, it goes down a whole rabbit hole around it being around the Skype co-founder.
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But the idea is this is a campaign pushed by certain political parties to strike
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fear in everyone ahead of a campaign election.
Josh:
It comes as a surprise to me that everyone is taking this as a surprise when
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the idea of alignment has been at the core of so many of these companies for
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so long. Like Ilya literally left OpenAI to start a company named safe superintelligence.
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This has been implied for a long time that what we're building is incredibly powerful.
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There's a lot of implications from it. It can go wrong, but we have really bright
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people who are working to do it in a way that is safe and responsible.
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And it's interesting to see the public outcry from this thing that seems like
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not new information. It's like we've been dealing with this for a very long time.
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Like I said, all these labs have built their entire ethos of the company around
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aligning these so that when we reach recursive self-improvement,
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the models are able to look out for humans and we are very much staying in control.
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So I don't know. Interesting story it's um it definitely blew up bigger than
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i think anyone or some people wanted some people who don't but it just it doesn't
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it doesn't help the narrative of trying to get the public to understand what's happening
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in the world of ai how they can benefit how things can actually be far improved
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there is the small subset that of course the small subset gets all the amplification
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um but as we talk about all the time it's not this is a small chance and people
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are working Not to mention.
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That the stat for like humanity dying via AI was, you mentioned this before
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we started recording, much larger a year ago, right?
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And so if the trend of this statistic keeps going down, then conceivably we
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should be safe in like a year or so, right?
Josh:
Yeah, I mean, that's what everyone's working towards. That's what every smart
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person on earth in AI, well, I mean, not everyone, but you know,
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that's what we hope a lot of people are working towards is a safe version of
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this. That is the intention behind all these labs, putting all these resources behind alignment.
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That's the intention behind hugging face and the lab slowing things down everyone's
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working towards figuring this out so i think that's kind of where
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where it is now is like all right this isn't new information people are kind
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of freaking out now it'll go away but we just hope that generally all these
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people are kind of converging on the same conclusions which is like we have
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to build something safe we have to build something that is going to help humanity
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to the extent that it can and
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limit the downside risk to the extent that we can and yeah i think that's what they're working Okay.
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Let's move on to our second topic. Apple.
Josh:
Oh my God. Okay, I've been waiting so long for this. Can we, can we, so...
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Just give me a second here. Apple came on stage, John Ternus,
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I should say, not Tim Cook. Tim Cook had a really elegant sign off. It was part of the intro.
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It was really sweet, kind of handing it over to John Ternus.
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He points at him and he goes, that guy, that's your opener. And it was a really
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sweet send off from Tim Cook.
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And John Ternus takes the stage to then unveil a suite of, I believe,
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five products. And maybe we can go through one by one because the iPhone duo
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is the most exciting, but we can't start there because they ended there.
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We'll end there. The first one, 18 Pro.
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The only thing I have to say about the 18 Pro is that it's black now. Thank God.
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We've been dealing with blue phones for so long the black is amazing it uses
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something interesting each as the two nanometer architecture which we know is
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very impressive because a lot of the gpu manufacturers are trying to do this
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so hearing about a new chip is very exciting first consumer device i believe with two nanometers.
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Really good phone they spent a lot of time what i found interesting was talking
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about the ai implications of the phone um before they even spoke about the hardware
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all they could talk about was apple intelligence this apple intelligence that
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it was basically a abbreviated version of WWDC
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in the sense that we are actually going to get a smarter Siri starting Monday.
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If you are watching this, when you come back from the weekend on Monday,
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your phone will be updated with the new Siri.
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Of course, these phones are optimized to run Siri better than anyone else,
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but the phones that you have in your pocket right now will be able to use the
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new and intelligent Siri. And I think that's pretty cool.
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Next, and this is where I want your opinion, EJS2, is the Apple Watch.
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Because the Apple Watch was a sleeper pick. I think a lot of people looked past
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it. A lot of people looked at it and they said, well, Whoop is dead because
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Apple released a new version of the health app that,
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takes your heart readings every five seconds, I believe. And it tracks all of
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your metrics more accurately than any other wearable on the market.
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So much so that it's almost comparable to a chest strap, which is the gold standard.
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I think the technology in it is very impressive. And if you are someone who
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tracks your health data a lot, this is the device to buy. This is actually a
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really meaningful technology upgrade with the software suite attached,
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where when you wake up in the morning, you have your readiness score,
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you see your sleep. It's a really good.
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Demo that they offered that was kind of overlooked where the apple watch listens to you,
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and it listens perpetually always it's opt-in i should say but it's always listening
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to what you're speaking to and if you have a conversation and you misheard the
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person or you want to recall it
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you can go to your watch and you can recall the conversation and it will also
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ambiently record everything throughout the course of the day if you want and
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then summarize that into,
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these summaries and give you key parts of your day and it's it feels like the
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first form of passive ai intelligence collection.
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And I think it's kind of flying under the radar right now. But I'm curious to
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hear if you have any thoughts on what, like Apple Watch is sneaky,
Josh:
dude. Apple Watch is the sneaky like Trojan horse to their next iteration of hardware.
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Yeah, so I saw that they ran a thousand plus person study, basically checking
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what wearables people prefer.
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And they ranged everything from like a chest strap to competitors like the Whoop,
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and then people using the Apple Watch. And they found that the Apple Watch is
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not only the most accurate sensor, but it's the most versatile.
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It basically can track your heart rate better than anything.
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And it kind of like has this kind of collective health sensory database,
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which is way more powerful than like a Whoop on its own or a Fitbit on its own.
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So I think the Apple Watch itself has kind of become, it's interesting you describe
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it like a surveillance device.
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John Turdus, when he came on stage, one of the first things he said was we're
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introducing you to the new version of a personal device and he mentioned the
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word agentic a bunch of different times so it was quite clear for me from the start of the event
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Apple wants to create this kind of suite of devices that feed into whatever
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this AI future looks like. And we've said it a bunch of times on this show before.
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We believe that a suite of devices that can kind of like harness what you see, what you hear,
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What you interact with, the things that you say, can have more context on you,
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can then feed into a personal kind of AI device or personal AI assistant and
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give you a better AI experience overall.
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And I think that was the whole kind of like shoehorn for this entire event.
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One of my favorite announcements, and I know it might not be yours,
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Josh, but was the iPhone Duo. But it wasn't for the reason of like,
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it's this over expensive foldable phone.
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It's because it's this new form factor where you can do a number of different
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things with Siri AI. Now, I've said this for, God, this is super embarrassing,
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for over a year and a half now that I couldn't wait for Siri AI to come out.
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It's officially running out on Monday.
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And Siri AI, of course, is Apple's version of their own personal AI assistant.
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It should function similar to ChatGPT or Gemini or Claude, but it's functioned
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specifically on your iPhone.
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And the coolest part about this is that it's able to interact with over 300,000 app intents.
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So 300,000 third-party apps can get involved with this AI. And that automatically
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makes an AI agent way more useful. Because think about OpenAI and ChatGPT,
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You can kind of like talk about it or talk to it in a chatbot format,
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but it can't really do many things for you.
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Now, if you had Siri AI embedded in your entire Apple ecosystem,
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software ecosystem, it can start doing a lot more for you. It can start sending
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texts for you, sorting out your calendars. It can start, you know,
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working different apps in many different ways. So I'm excited about that.
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But with the iPhone Duo, the way that it kind of like splits up means that you
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can have this cool split screen.
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I don't know if you saw this on the demo, Josh, but you could pull up an app
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on the left-hand side of the screen and then you could have Siri AI on the right
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and it's seeing anything and everything that you do and you can talk to it.
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And it just seems like this weirdly futuristic type of device.
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The transitions are super cool.
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And it got me thinking about, okay, well, if this was used in conjunction with
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an Apple Watch, in conjunction with a new pair of AirPods which can see things,
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which is rumored to be Apple's new device that they're going to hopefully announce
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and launch in the near future.
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This could end up being the most competitive ecosystem for AI.
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Forget about what OpenAI is trying to build. Forget about what Anthropic might
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be trying to build from a personal gadget device. Apple is the consumer device provider.
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And it just gets me excited for that future,
Josh:
Essentially. What I loved about this event is it shook things up for the first
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time in a very long time. in the sense that this is the first time we have a
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new form factor for an iPhone. And we'll get into the Duo. The Duo is unbelievably impressive.
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But it is also the first time where they are kind of signaling their intention
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to go beyond the iPhone. And that is with the Apple Watch.
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We talked about that passive monitoring of the audio and recording.
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It's important to note that it's all private, local, on device,
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and not stored anywhere. And I think that's a really important distinction as
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we talk about our next topic, which is Navier Stokes and how some information is getting stolen.
Josh:
But what's interesting is it's very clear that the new paradigm of mobile device
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is through voice, is through context, is through AI. We talk about OpenAI who's building this device.
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We've mentioned it a thousand times, but for the first time,
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Apple has released a very early version of that.
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Apple has released a device that listens to you, collects context,
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and then acts on your behalf using artificial intelligence.
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And the watch is the Trojan horse to start collecting information,
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to start getting you comfortable with the idea that something is listening before
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these next suite of devices rolls out, like the hardware that's going to sit
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on your countertop that's going to be listening, or
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the hardware that's possibly going to be sitting on your eyes and your face
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through the wearable. And I think that's a really important
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note is that like this is the new beginning they have released a new form factor
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for the iphone it's starting to cannibalize the actual slab they've released
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this new passive audio device that can listen and think and use intelligence.
Josh:
But we do have to talk about the fold because i want to talk about the fold
Josh:
i think i'm going to go out on a limb here and say this is the second most impressive
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device apple has released in the last decade maybe the first being the vision
Josh:
pro the second being the iphone duo this thing is a
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beast of a phone it is thinner than the iphone air if you've never touched an
Josh:
iphone air i highly recommend going to the store and feeling it it feels like paper.
Josh:
This is about a quarter millimeter thinner than that.
Josh:
And that is one of its two screens. What I also love about this phone is it's
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funny because like we knew what the phone was going to look like beforehand.
Josh:
Everyone saw the leaks. Everyone knew this was what the phone's going to look like.
Josh:
And yet still, I was shocked and delighted at how pleasant the experience is.
Josh:
And it's mostly due to software.
Josh:
Apple has the best human design team in the world. And it becomes obvious when
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you open it and you start with the transition. As you mentioned,
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like the transition when you take this thing and you open it is just.
Ejaaz:
Glorious this thing is way too sexy it's so satisfying
Josh:
Yeah it has like you could think of it kind of similarly to a passport but a
Josh:
smaller passport in fact i went to best buy the other day to try out the
Josh:
the galaxy z fold because it's a very similar form factor it feels good man
Josh:
it's like a good device it's a good form factor what i love is there's two batteries
Josh:
the battery is split between both halves it has a matte screen on the inside, which I love.
Josh:
And one of the cool things about the inside screen actually is when these companies
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are manufacturing foldable devices, the display has to bend.
Josh:
And that bending creates creases, the bending...
Josh:
Means that oftentimes it's kind of a plastic polymer which is uneven so if you
Josh:
look at a lot of foldable phones the actual screen will be kind of uneven and
Josh:
have ridges and what they've managed to do with the production process is spray
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this like proprietary thing on top of it to smooth out those ridges and to do
Josh:
so in a way that gives it a nanotexture matte finish similar to what you get
Josh:
on the high-end apple displays on your macbook or your studio display i haven't
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touched it i'm dying to touch it but it looks like this really elegant phone
Josh:
and in terms of the average consumer who wants an ipad mini plus an iphone in one
Josh:
this is a home run the interface was surprising and delightful when you look
Josh:
at the way that they're figuring out how to actually navigate through the ios
Josh:
a lot of the context is on the right side right by your thumb right where you hold it
Josh:
bad year to be a lefty but if you are ready like that's gonna work out pretty
Josh:
good for you and overall this phone was
Josh:
amazing the sad part is that you have to wait i think five weeks to pre-order
Josh:
it so you don't start till the end of october i'm afraid delivery starts the
Josh:
week after that about i think the 23rd so you have a good bit of time until
Josh:
you need to make a decision on this
Josh:
but it is a remarkable device they figured out finally the hole punch camera
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sitting behind the display in the foldable and then they have all these really
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cool features for the half open version you could use as an alarm clock you
Josh:
could use a selfie camera it has a viewfinder if you like to vlog
Josh:
and you can point the 48 megapixel camera at you while still seeing the live view
Josh:
it's an amazing camera for creators it's an amazing camera.
Josh:
Or amazing device just for users in general. And I could not be happier that
Josh:
they released this and did such a good job. John Ternus, 1-0,
Josh:
undefeated, home run of an event.
Ejaaz:
I just want to nerd out about a few things here. So you mentioned the inner
Ejaaz:
layer, right? The inner screen, which has this like kind of like polymer layer
Ejaaz:
so that you don't really see the hinge. Beautiful, right?
Ejaaz:
So it uses this thing called like, I think it's kind of like nanotexture or
Ejaaz:
something like that. I don't know the formal name,
Josh:
But it basically etched the glass actually. So it refracts light in distorting ways.
Ejaaz:
So I saw a million different angles of this, right? Of people were kind of like
Ejaaz:
using it at the event, Josh.
Ejaaz:
And it looks like I'm reading a book or like I'm looking at paper.
Ejaaz:
It's kind of like Kindle-esque, but like it's an HDTV at the same time.
Ejaaz:
So I really like the attention to detail that they have there.
Ejaaz:
And of course, like I don't want to see the hinge, but I'm glad that it exists.
Ejaaz:
Now that polymer is apparently, according to Apple, 40% stronger than any other
Ejaaz:
polymer that's available on the market. And in classic Apple style,
Ejaaz:
they would spend that much money to get a 40% stronger polymer so that you don't see the hinge.
Ejaaz:
Can we take a moment to talk about the actual hinge on its own?
Ejaaz:
This hinge is a hundred different components. Just want to repeat that.
Ejaaz:
It is 100 different components. I want to restart this image,
Ejaaz:
sorry, this video, because you need to see this.
Ejaaz:
A hundred different components went into this hinge so that it has the smoothness
Ejaaz:
and flexibility that you've seen in the demo so far. So the amount of engineering
Ejaaz:
is bar none the best from Apple on its own.
Ejaaz:
Now, when it comes to kind of like the form factor itself, Josh,
Ejaaz:
you know this, right? Before they officially announced this product,
Ejaaz:
I was bearish about this thing. And I did not know whether I would want to buy
Ejaaz:
it. It just seemed like Apple was kind of like reaching.
Ejaaz:
You know, if you look at in the Chinese market, they've had foldable phones for a while, I believe.
Ejaaz:
Huawei has like the market dominance for goodness knows how long Huawei and
Ejaaz:
Samsung. So I was like, okay, this is just Apple running out of ideas.
Ejaaz:
But the way that Ternus pitched it really made it seem like it was going to
Ejaaz:
be an AI agent forward type of device, but they're not going to force it down
Ejaaz:
your throats. It's meant to be intuitive.
Ejaaz:
It's meant to kind of like increase screen time, but also in a very productive manner.
Ejaaz:
You know, you can have two apps of the same version kind of like side by side,
Ejaaz:
or you can have another app and kind of be like super, like way more productive.
Ejaaz:
So I like that side of things.
Ejaaz:
I really don't like the price point. So the cheapest version of this is $2,000.
Ejaaz:
Now, $2,000 can get you a bleeding-edge MacBook Pro, right? Souped up.
Ejaaz:
So they're really trying to push us into this kind of like intermediary market
Ejaaz:
where you don't really want a mobile phone, but you also don't really want the
Ejaaz:
laptop, but you want something that is as or if not more powerful that you spend most of your time on.
Ejaaz:
Maybe it's going to be the iPhone Duo. That price tag is huge.
Ejaaz:
And I don't know whether that I want to fork out that amount,
Ejaaz:
like for a phone versus a laptop,
Ejaaz:
I do spend a lot of time on this phone and I've had this phone for like way
Ejaaz:
too long. So I might have to go out and like buy the new thing.
Ejaaz:
And then the other thing I'll just say in terms of like things that I'm going
Ejaaz:
to buy from this Apple event, did you see the AirPods announcement? The AirPods 5?
Ejaaz:
Dude, $129.
Ejaaz:
It might be the cheapest Apple device. Maybe I've spent too much time in the Apple ecosystem ever.
Ejaaz:
But the reason why that excited me is they're definitely laying this up for
Ejaaz:
a much bigger announcement for the AirPods Pro, which presumably is going to
Ejaaz:
be the one that has cameras coming forward.
Ejaaz:
I don't know if you have any comments on this, but I'm excited for what that effective teaser was.
Josh:
Yeah, it's great value. It brings together the difference between the AirPods
Josh:
Pro and the regular AirPods, mostly through active noise cancellation.
Josh:
ANC is how they refer to it.
Josh:
ANC was proprietary to the Pro models because they have the in earbuds that
Josh:
actually stick inside your ear and create a seal.
Josh:
They've somehow managed to make that work with the open earbuds as well.
Josh:
So there is some level of active noise cancellation.
Josh:
There's two versions, one for $130, one for $150, give or take $10 each.
Josh:
It's an amazing device. It shows me that they have a lot of confidence going
Josh:
forward in their next iteration of the Pro earbuds because this is bringing
Josh:
that gap close, like really close to the sense that you might not be able to
Josh:
justify $250 of spend if you just want a wireless pair of earbuds.
Josh:
A few more things on the foldable. If you go back to the hinge,
Josh:
actually, I want to talk about the hinge for a second because there's no way
Josh:
this is made in the United States.
Josh:
It's far too complicated. It's the first time they're using AI in the manufacturing
Josh:
process. When you look at this overlay, there's a hundred parts and Elon is
Josh:
rolling in his grave at this complexity, but it's elegant and it's beautiful.
Josh:
And the way they're able to make it so correct in a sense with like very little,
Josh:
what's the word i'm looking for very little issues there's very low tolerances
Josh:
is because they actually use an ai machine learning algorithm to scan all the pieces
Josh:
and figure out which ones best fit with the other so there's this huge
Josh:
like slew of pieces ai looks at it it says take this screw for this one this
Josh:
screw for this one and everything works out more seamlessly i found that to
Josh:
be really interesting and then
Josh:
in terms of popularity in china foldables i learned yesterday are the most.
Josh:
Sold phone in china like they're the most popular phone so now there is a version
Josh:
in which Apple can offer.
Josh:
In terms of buying it, I don't think this is for me.
Josh:
And that was surprising because I couldn't be happier to get two phones.
Josh:
And I'll probably still get it. I really want to try it. I want to play around with it.
Josh:
But in terms of a daily driver, the iPhone Duo is not a tool in the way that the iPhone Pro is.
Josh:
And I find this to be really disappointing because.
Josh:
The phone for me is such a tool in the sense that it has the best processor
Josh:
for getting work done. It has the best visual optic system for cameras.
Josh:
It has the best suite of sensors. It has the best speakers. It has the best
Josh:
microphones. It has the best stabilizer and gyroscope.
Josh:
All of those things take a second class seat in the iPhone Duo because of the
Josh:
form factor and the novelty of it.
Josh:
So if you are someone who is a regular iPhone enjoyer, who likes to take photos
Josh:
of their family on the weekends, who likes to just maybe perhaps read at night.
Josh:
And if you do open up that paper screen, you could use the Apple Pencil on it
Josh:
later this year, which is very cool.
Josh:
But then it's probably for you. Like the iPhone Duo could be for you.
Josh:
And in fact, $2,000 was the first time I was surprised by pricing to the downside,
Josh:
because of the extreme cost increase in terms of memory and RAM recently.
Josh:
I expect it to come in over $2,000. I know they're probably feeling some pain
Josh:
at the $2,000 price point because that was aspirational a few years ago.
Josh:
Now they're probably taking a chunk out of the profit margin.
Josh:
But for me, dude, I left delighted and surprised at how good the software was,
Josh:
at how good the package was.
Josh:
And then very like sobered by the idea that it is an inferior tool to the iPhone 18 Pro.
Josh:
And I think this year, I'm just stoked that I can get a new upgrade in black.
Josh:
And I'll be rocking my same slab that I have rocked forever because until they
Josh:
come out with the glasses, until they come out with like the new passive AI
Josh:
devices, I think it's the best device for people who really use their phone
Josh:
as a tool. And I like couldn't be more excited about this event.
Josh:
Can't be more excited to try the iPhone Duo. I wish it was coming out next week,
Josh:
like the 18 Pro, but we'll just have to wait and see and hopefully have a follow-up
Josh:
when we get it in our hands.
Ejaaz:
I'm most excited, I think, by like all the AI features that Apple needs to come
Ejaaz:
out with. And I say it needs intentionally.
Josh:
Great, man. That's Monday. We're right there.
Ejaaz:
I know. I've been waiting to use Siri OS.
Ejaaz:
It's been in beta testing for a while now.
Ejaaz:
But Siri has been like the world's worst personal assistant.
Ejaaz:
And it is like particularly bad taste in my mouth because it was the earliest
Ejaaz:
personal assistant, right?
Ejaaz:
Like we had Siri before. or we had ChatGPT, or any of these different things.
Ejaaz:
So we've been promised this kind of like hyper-intelligent local assistant that
Ejaaz:
lives on your device. And like iPhone is the most popular, or Apple devices
Ejaaz:
are the most popular devices. There's like 2.5 to 3 billion of them active live in the world right now.
Ejaaz:
And so I've been waiting for Apple to make a move. They haven't been putting
Ejaaz:
any money into kind of training their own model.
Ejaaz:
We announced sort of like six months earlier this year that they struck a deal
Ejaaz:
with Google for their Gemini model. And so they're paying them a billion dollars
Ejaaz:
a year to kind of license a proprietary version of Gemini. And that's what's
Ejaaz:
basically going to be powering Siri OS.
Ejaaz:
I don't think Apple's assistant is going to be intelligent from Google Gemini.
Ejaaz:
Now, if you've been following the show, Google's kind of taken a hit over the
Ejaaz:
last couple of months. You know, they've had a lot of their leadership kind
Ejaaz:
of like leave or kind of get demoted to another type of role.
Ejaaz:
So they've kind of, they've lost a bit of steam in the AI race.
Ejaaz:
They're not out of it, but they've lost some steam.
Ejaaz:
So the question then becomes, you know, will Apple have frontier AI?
Ejaaz:
They're screwed, right?
Ejaaz:
Well, I don't think it's as simple as that because Apple's major moat is they
Ejaaz:
have the data from anyone and everyone.
Ejaaz:
You were mentioning earlier like this apple watch is another step in that direction
Ejaaz:
where it's constantly monitoring and censoring you now there is a question around you know
Ejaaz:
should you have that uh kind of information now in apple's case like it's using
Ejaaz:
a private cloud it's encrypted to the extent that it could be that's great so
Ejaaz:
apple has always taken privacy very seriously and i think they're going to do the same with ai
Ejaaz:
It also means that you're going to have a much more personal experience with
Ejaaz:
your ai i started using models like meta muse product and grok bots recently
Ejaaz:
and it is a much more personal feel than chat gpt it's not necessarily the smartest model but it feels
Ejaaz:
way better than using chat gpt as an llm on its own so i'm excited for apple
Ejaaz:
to kind of like foray into this
Ejaaz:
when it comes to um what that's going to feel like i think there's a daily limit
Ejaaz:
so you have a daily kind of quota because computer, of course, is very expensive.
Ejaaz:
And I think I did kind of like some derived math before we started recording this.
Ejaaz:
If every single device in Apple's networks, it's around, let's just say two
Ejaaz:
and a half billion devices, sent a query every single day, it would cost just under a tenth of a cent.
Ejaaz:
So they have the scalable infrastructure here with Google and Gemini,
Ejaaz:
so they'll write to pick that partner.
Ejaaz:
But I'm just excited to see Apple finally launch a cohesive AI product,
Ejaaz:
because I think people have been dying for it.
Ejaaz:
I think 99% of people who don't really care or use ChatGPT or code beyond just
Ejaaz:
an average Google search is going to start using AI in a much more meaningful way.
Ejaaz:
And I think Apple is going to be the reason that they unlock that.
Ejaaz:
So these devices are just one
Ejaaz:
stepping stone towards that, but Siri AI is going to be the real unlock.
Josh:
Even more so than cloud, like the new A20 ProShip has double the neural engines.
Josh:
It is really capable of doing local inference. So I suspect we're going to be
Josh:
getting a lot of that on the way.
Josh:
I think that's the Apple update. We could talk about this forever,
Josh:
but we got to move on because we're getting long and we still have more stuff
Josh:
to talk about. We got to talk about Navier Stokes.
Ejaaz:
Navier Stokes. Um...
Josh:
Don't ask i don't know some smart people they like had a theorem they were just like,
Josh:
i don't know how wind works i don't know how planes fly we can't really prove
Josh:
it but it works so like we're experiencing the downstream effects of this navier
Josh:
stokes effect basically every day
Josh:
and if i can take a stab at describing what navier stokes is because i mean
Josh:
ultimately spoiler alert,
Josh:
someone solved it they or disproved it i should say but essentially and i was
Josh:
thinking about this last couple of days because i had to figure out how to explain
Josh:
to myself if you're like in the morning and you're stirring your cup of like
Josh:
coffee and you watch little swirls.
Josh:
You could they tried to write a rule that tells you exactly where every swirl
Josh:
in the cup of coffee is going to exist next
Josh:
and the rule kind of exists and it works but there's no way to prove that it
Josh:
works fully to the limit so it works good enough for us to like use it to build
Josh:
planes it talks about the way that wind lifts over things
Josh:
it works enough for like fluid dynamics but there's still the puzzle in the
Josh:
sense that no one's ever been able to prove that the rule always works.
Josh:
So like perhaps if you stir your coffee in some very special,
Josh:
weird way, it stays a swirl indefinitely.
Josh:
And what has happened just this week is there was a million dollar prize for
Josh:
this. People have been working on it their entire life.
Josh:
It got blown up and it got disproved. And a computer said that,
Josh:
in fact, if you do stir this milk or you do stir this coffee at a very particular
Josh:
way, in a very strange form, the rule actually breaks and the swirl goes infinite.
Josh:
And this is comparable to the people who live in the world of like fluid and
Josh:
like aerodynamics as saying like two plus two sometimes doesn't equal four.
Josh:
Like it doesn't always quite equal four in almost every case it does.
Josh:
But we've just proved that in some weird case, it doesn't.
Josh:
This is novel for reasons that I don't fully understand, but that is my interpretation
Josh:
of it, at least, that this is like this pretty big deal in the world of math.
Josh:
People have been spending their entire lives trying to solve it.
Josh:
And AI, OpenAI, I mean, if I can get in my story correctly, they just solved this out of spite.
Ejaaz:
Yeah, so let me give you my take on this. And, spoiler alert,
Ejaaz:
it's not going to be on Navier Stokes because I'm way too dumb to cover what that is.
Ejaaz:
But at a high level, here's what happened.
Ejaaz:
So there's this thing called the Millennium Math Problems, and it started,
Ejaaz:
shock, horror, in the year 2000.
Ejaaz:
And it basically covered seven of the world's hardest mathematical problems.
Ejaaz:
And they were the hardest mathematical problems because for over 100 years,
Ejaaz:
people have been trying to solve these problems, but couldn't really come to a solution.
Ejaaz:
And we're talking about like smartest minds in the world, right?
Ejaaz:
So, one of these problems is called Navier-Stokes, and it's that kind of spiral
Ejaaz:
swirl solution that you were just mentioning, Josh. But the issue is,
Ejaaz:
no one could ever find a solution to this. It took way too much brain compute to try and figure out.
Ejaaz:
So, the timeline is as follows. September 1st, so just a few weeks ago,
Ejaaz:
These two research scientists slash mathematicians who have kind of like done
Ejaaz:
work at Anthropic, partially done some work at OpenAI, hit each other up.
Ejaaz:
And they were like, listen, let's work on this problem together.
Ejaaz:
And well, they actually had this conversation a few weeks earlier or like a
Ejaaz:
few months earlier, and they've been working on this problem together.
Ejaaz:
They were like, let's go at it the old-fashioned way, right?
Ejaaz:
And let's not let the AI labs solve it themselves. Let's try and do this the
Ejaaz:
old way, and we can use AI models to help us, but we're mathematicians. We'll try and fix this.
Ejaaz:
So they were working on a proof for Navier-Stokes specifically.
Ejaaz:
This is one of the seven problems.
Ejaaz:
And they announced on September 1st that they'd found not a solution to it,
Ejaaz:
but kind of like a partial solution to a cousin problem version of this,
Ejaaz:
right? So it's not the direct solution, but it's kind of like,
Ejaaz:
it's partial, right? But it's impressive in itself.
Ejaaz:
Now, after that got announced, rumors started swirling.
Ejaaz:
That Anthropic had solved Navier-Stokes using an internal model.
Ejaaz:
And of course, who's the first to hear that? It's OpenAI.
Ejaaz:
So OpenAI from then used an internal version of their model.
Ejaaz:
It's not GPT-6 Astra, which everyone has access to right now.
Ejaaz:
It's an internal version, which was only being trained for 12 days at the time
Ejaaz:
that they pointed it at Navier-Stokes, this very complex mathematical solution
Ejaaz:
or problem that had never, ever been solved before.
Ejaaz:
And the resulting case after 88 hours of work, it worked nonstop for 88 hours,
Ejaaz:
is it came up with the perfect solution to this problem, better than the ones
Ejaaz:
that the two mathematicians had announced on September 1st.
Ejaaz:
So why is this important? Well, number one, AI has basically solved math.
Ejaaz:
So at the same time where an AI can't really read my texts and kind of come
Ejaaz:
up with a smart answer, it still sounds like a chatbot, it can solve world-defining
Ejaaz:
mathematical problems worth a million dollars.
Ejaaz:
Now, it's worth mentioning that the cost to solve this problem cost,
Ejaaz:
I think, 10 million plus dollars.
Ejaaz:
I think Sam confirmed it in a thread. So very, very expensive.
Ejaaz:
But the idea is these models are going to get more efficient and smarter for
Ejaaz:
cheaper cost per unit token.
Ejaaz:
So you should be able to have a model like this that can solve these crazy mathematical
Ejaaz:
problems for a fraction of the cost in a few months time.
Ejaaz:
But the drama behind this is these two researchers, which came up with the original
Ejaaz:
kind of idea or solution, but wasn't really the solution, basically said that
Ejaaz:
AI had stolen, OpenAI had stolen their user data.
Ejaaz:
Because remember, they were using ChatGPT and Claude to kind of like figure
Ejaaz:
out a solution for their own.
Ejaaz:
They accused OpenAI of stealing their internal chat logs and basically saying,
Ejaaz:
we're going to use this to solve it ourselves and without sharing any of the credit to them.
Ejaaz:
So this whole drama basically unpacked, Josh, over the last couple of weeks where...
Ejaaz:
OpenAI's head of research got accused and in internal conversation logs that
Ejaaz:
got leaked, basically told these two researchers, why do you want to ruin your
Ejaaz:
career over something that's so disdainful?
Ejaaz:
Like, here's the offer that we're giving you, but you need to cut Anthropic
Ejaaz:
out of this because we don't want you on the official solution for this.
Ejaaz:
We discovered this solution. We didn't use your user data.
Ejaaz:
So you have no choice. Like either sign this kind of contract and say that,
Ejaaz:
you know, you're part of this or we'll just take all the credit.
Ejaaz:
So the big question that comes from this is who who should have the credit for
Ejaaz:
this should it be open ai's internal model that has trained on everyone else's chat logs
Ejaaz:
or should it be the people that originated there like part of the solution um
Ejaaz:
and should they have credit for this
Josh:
I don't know i don't know there's a lot of drama there's a lot of name pointing
Josh:
i think the important takeaway from this story is the fact that meth is probably
Josh:
the most deterministic category that we've trained ai models to do and therefore
Josh:
it is the one that we are seeing the most acceleration in
Josh:
it does appear as if we were at the early stages of solving some really meaningful math
Josh:
like the fact that they just kind of did this on a whim and pointed it at this
Josh:
problem and solved it in a very short period of time is telling at how much
Josh:
more capable this is going to be during these next future models so
Josh:
what i would be excited about now is like okay what are the actual implications
Josh:
of solving difficult math problems that can meaningfully
Josh:
impact the world we i remember we recorded an episode last year about like the
Josh:
room temperature semiconductor thing where it was this unbelievable breakthrough
Josh:
turned out that it wasn't really unbelievable it didn't actually work but how can,
Josh:
industry how can like people actually be impacted by this and it starts with
Josh:
math it quickly moves to science we start to uncover the dna you start to understand
Josh:
more about it you start to apply.
Josh:
These very difficult questions with deterministic outcomes to these new frontier
Josh:
models and you actually get answers that humans were incapable of doing and
Josh:
this is that kind of like agi cusp moment in which we're starting to realize that
Josh:
there is actually intelligence far smarter than us at specific pointy jagged
Josh:
cases but in the case that it does it's really freaking impressive and this
Josh:
is cool to see that you can just on a whim crack,
Josh:
crack one of the millennium challenges of great history like people have spent
Josh:
their entire life solving this and they pointed it for fun They're like,
Josh:
here's 10,000 agents, see if you can solve it.
Josh:
And it solved the problem. And that to me is really exciting and a really interesting
Josh:
precedent set for what the next couple of months, couple of years are going
Josh:
to look like in the world of AI applied to math and science in particular. Very cool.
Ejaaz:
I think the thing that's going to matter most to me, like that kind of like
Ejaaz:
magical moment will be when it's applied
Ejaaz:
to like science or medicine in particular. And I think we're close.
Ejaaz:
I think we're close. Like we're there. Open AI, we're there.
Ejaaz:
So OpenAI has been saying for a while now that
Ejaaz:
They are internally orchestrating their models to be really good at math.
Ejaaz:
But, you know, where's the AI labs that are focusing on science?
Ejaaz:
Well, I've heard rumors that Anthropic has been doing this with internal models.
Ejaaz:
I've heard rumors that Google DeepMind have been doing it.
Ejaaz:
Tevis Hussibis has stepped down from his role as head of AI of Gemini and is
Ejaaz:
now focused on, what's it called, isometric labs, which is basically a lab that
Ejaaz:
can autonomously design and build novel cures and treatments for diseases.
Ejaaz:
But I saw this really cool story, which kind of like suggests that we're almost
Ejaaz:
there, from this guy called Douglas Yao,
Ejaaz:
who basically created a new drug called PAC-3310, which was designed by ChatGPT
Ejaaz:
and synthesized in a chemistry lab that he has in his garage.
Ejaaz:
And what this new cure can basically do is treat against schizophrenia,
Ejaaz:
similar to a recent breakthrough from a drug that he calls or references as Cobenfry.
Ejaaz:
So a bit of context, and also look at this lab setup. This is some Breaking Bad type stuff.
Ejaaz:
So what this kid basically did was he looked at Cobenfry, which is this new
Ejaaz:
drug which kind of came out around like six months ago.
Ejaaz:
And basically, it's this new version or way of treating schizophrenia.
Ejaaz:
Up until that point, treatment had kind of like plateaued and people hadn't
Ejaaz:
made a breakthrough until this new drug came out.
Ejaaz:
But it came with a bunch of different side effects, nausea, sickness,
Ejaaz:
and pain and aches in the joints.
Ejaaz:
So he was like, hmm, I wonder if there's a version of this that could not trigger
Ejaaz:
those things. So he went down a rabbit hole.
Ejaaz:
He looked at the compound Coben-Fry and he noticed that this drug,
Ejaaz:
whilst successfully obliviating a
Ejaaz:
schizophrenia, would also engage with three other receptors,
Ejaaz:
which would cause this nausea, sickness, and joint pain.
Ejaaz:
So he was like, ChatGPT, I want you to basically design a version of this that
Ejaaz:
doesn't engage those receptors.
Ejaaz:
It came out with a template design, and then he fed it into basically an automated
Ejaaz:
lab, which essentially built the entire thing for him.
Ejaaz:
And the funniest part, and I'm going to see if I can find it.
Ejaaz:
I think it was a comment. Yeah, over here.
Ejaaz:
Your team page on your site is so great. And it's just him as the founder,
Ejaaz:
ChatGPT plus Claude, And then an automated laboratory thing,
Ejaaz:
which he used to basically 3D print the entire cure.
Ejaaz:
Just a cool story going on from what we were just discussing.
Ejaaz:
I think we're on the cusp of AI really revolutionizing, you know, personal medicine.
Josh:
The theme, I think, of this episode, outside of our little side quest to talk
Josh:
about Apple products and intelligence, is that like when you take this story
Josh:
and you take the first story, and there is a chance of like horrible things
Josh:
happening, but also there's incredible things being accomplished.
Josh:
I think this is everything we've kind of been talking about for a long time.
Josh:
The future very much does feel here, again, unevenly distributed in terms of
Josh:
technology, but also mindshare.
Josh:
And what we're seeing is this like very strong disconnect between what we've
Josh:
been discussing for a year on the show. Like the reason the show was started
Josh:
is because we are entering a vertical period of progress and there is a tremendous
Josh:
amount of innovation that's happening.
Josh:
And every week that goes by that accelerates and we see more and more amazing
Josh:
use cases and the immune response to that from people who are scared by that
Josh:
is going to increase in intensity as well.
Josh:
And i just want to just like refrain for everybody that this is happening like
Josh:
it's this thing is happening progress is being made the math is being solved
Josh:
the science is being solved like the things that we've been talking about are
Josh:
actually being realized and,
Josh:
the hypothesizing that this show is based on is like becoming more real every
Josh:
day and there are pros and there are cons but it's happening and i think like
Josh:
if there is a takeaway from this episode it's just like okay everything that we've been saying
Josh:
i mean not everything of course but like directionally the progress is happening.
Josh:
We are solving AGI. We are reaching AGI.
Josh:
We are working towards recursive self-improvement. All of these things.
Josh:
That we're seeing are going to continue happening at this pace.
Josh:
And it's like, all right, we got to figure out how to deal with this as a society,
Josh:
as an individual, like, how do you want to empower your life?
Josh:
Do you want an Apple watch that's listening to you all day long?
Josh:
That's giving you context on your health that can possibly help you improve your life?
Josh:
Do you want to opt out of that? There's a series of decisions that everyone's
Josh:
going to have to make in the coming years as the consumer devices change,
Josh:
as the consumer software changes, as the corporate infrastructure around you
Josh:
changes, there's going to be a lot of change.
Josh:
So I guess the encouragement is, like, get comfortable with change try to figure
Josh:
out like what your values are where you want to live in this new world but the new world is coming,
Josh:
and it feels very much here and over the next couple of months over the next
Josh:
couple of years like that vertical line is probably going to stay vertical and
Josh:
things are going to keep getting
Josh:
weird and exciting and like maybe we'll be able to create our own i don't know
Josh:
maybe we could clone ourselves or something we could clone our voices and we
Josh:
could just we'll have this podcast run itself we'll create our own lab we can
Josh:
make our own peptides supercharged our human selves solve all our cancer problems
Josh:
whatever we want to do the The future's like pretty infinite.
Ejaaz:
I think for the last couple of years that we've individually been covering AI,
Ejaaz:
researching AI, and then starting this show,
Ejaaz:
It really has felt like we've been on our own island to an extent.
Ejaaz:
Like, you know, we would talk about all these crazy developments,
Ejaaz:
and then I would go have a conversation with my sister, and she would be like,
Ejaaz:
what do you mean, like, this model can do this? Like, I don't come across it.
Ejaaz:
And that's the truth for the majority of the world.
Ejaaz:
And listen, I'm no doomer by any means. I remain very optimistic.
Ejaaz:
I think there is a sub-1% chance that AI actually ends up killing humanity,
Ejaaz:
and it's probably going to get lower over the next couple of years and decades.
Ejaaz:
But I do think right now, this year, over the next couple of months,
Ejaaz:
It has never been more important for everyone to pay attention to what is going
Ejaaz:
on. There's some themes that are happening, right?
Ejaaz:
We have never been in a position where we are giving more of our data over to
Ejaaz:
centralized corporations than today.
Ejaaz:
There's also never been an instance where technology has permeated pretty much
Ejaaz:
every single facet of our life.
Ejaaz:
Relationships, work, personal connections, productivity, entertainment, whatever it might be.
Ejaaz:
AI and technology is there. There's a device for everything.
Ejaaz:
That's listening, that's seeing, that's doing things for you.
Ejaaz:
We are automating the world.
Ejaaz:
And that's going to happen in the physical world as well when robots scale up,
Ejaaz:
and they are scaling up. That's going to happen. China's already there, right?
Ejaaz:
So the question we have to ask ourselves is, in this world, how do we make sure
Ejaaz:
that technology, which is
Ejaaz:
You know, proceeding that, only been used as a tool and considered a tool,
Ejaaz:
Now be used as a kind of like thought partner with us that is aligned with us.
Ejaaz:
And if any of the recent stories of these AI models breaking out and doing nefarious
Ejaaz:
things are anything to go by is, there's some work for us to do.
Ejaaz:
And if the head of AI alignment research, to tie it back to our first story,
Ejaaz:
is coming out and saying, listen,
Ejaaz:
the AI labs are being reckless, this is probably a warning sign that we should
Ejaaz:
kind of heed and focus on and it's just like this is not a warning this is not
Ejaaz:
a Doomer episode it's more like
Ejaaz:
you know, let's pay attention to how we're using these tools because these tools
Ejaaz:
are about to become a hell of a lot more effective in terms of actionable things.
Ejaaz:
It's going to control your computer. It's going to do a bunch of things.
Ejaaz:
We're going to give more of ourselves over to these machines.
Ejaaz:
We just need to be careful. But yeah, that is the episode. That's the roundup.
Ejaaz:
Sorry that it was a bit of a long one today.
Ejaaz:
Very heavy on certain topics, but you know, that's the case with AI week in, week out.
Ejaaz:
Thank you so much for listening. If you have listened to this on youtube and
Ejaaz:
you haven't subscribed or you haven't turned on notifications please do it helps us out massively um
Ejaaz:
we are getting around 300 to 500 comments on every single episode which is crazy
Ejaaz:
because a year ago we would barely get like 10 we love hearing from you guys
Ejaaz:
please continue to leave us comments we read every single one and we try and
Ejaaz:
reply to every single one as and when we can
Ejaaz:
um if you're listening to spotify and apple please um follow us subscribe to
Ejaaz:
us leave us a comment there as well give us a rating helps us out massively
Ejaaz:
and obviously like share these episodes with your friends if you enjoyed it
Ejaaz:
josh any other final thoughts
Josh:
You said we were doing this on an island it feels like a pretty pretty big island
Josh:
or an increase in a large island and i appreciate all the members that have
Josh:
joined the island when we talk about giving giving ourselves i mean perhaps suggestion
Josh:
what i've been thinking in like terms of giving things up is is the realization
Josh:
that advertisers for a very long time have been collecting data you don't have much personal left
Josh:
at least in this instance there is some,
Josh:
transparency and there is some imposed privacy instead of the illusion of such.
Josh:
So what I found is I'm happy to give my information to these companies in exchange
Josh:
for a far superior quality of life.
Josh:
That might not be true for everyone. I just want to share my own take,
Josh:
but that is the episode. Thank you for watching. I think this is the longest
Josh:
episode ever. We're not doing a good job of staying on track here,
Josh:
but a lot to talk about and very exciting topics to talk about.
Josh:
I'm glad we finally got our Apple episode.
Josh:
I'm glad it was wrapped in some doomer context to humble us.
Josh:
And I think that is everything. So thank you all so much for making it to the
Josh:
end. Thank you just in general for joining us through this journey and we will
Josh:
see you guys on the next one.