AWM Insights Financial and Investment News

Join Justin Dyer, Chief Investment Officer at AWM Capital, and Portfolio Manager Mena Hanna as they break down gold's recent surge, its role in times of global uncertainty, and how it stacks up against long-term equity investing. This episode cuts through the hype surrounding precious metals, examines powerful data on generational wealth, and reveals the pitfalls of chasing short-term trends. Whether you're curious about gold’s reputation or seeking guidance for your family's financial legacy, you'll gain expert, actionable insight for your own wealth strategy.

Chapters
(00:02) Gold and Precious Metals in the Spotlight
(02:19) Investment Principles and Cash Flow Focus
(05:54) Geopolitical Instability and Gold Demand
(08:26) Portfolio Construction and Hedging Strategies
(10:14) Comparing Long-Term Returns for Gold and Equities
(12:22) Importance of Long-Term Perspective and Patience
(14:10) The 100-Year Family: Wealth Compounding Over Generations

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Creators and Guests

Host
Justin Dyer
Chief Investment Officer and Chief Operating Officer at AWM Capital
Host
Mena Hanna
Senior Investment Analyst at AWM Capital

What is AWM Insights Financial and Investment News?

A bite sized discussion on timely financial news and investment topics, to help you maximize your net worth and wealth for the next generation with Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna of AWM Capital.

Justin Dyer: Hey everyone.

Welcome back to another episode
of a WM Insights 2026 is certainly

getting started with a bang.

Uh, but before we jump into to what
those topics are and, and why that

gives us a little bit of a a smirk,
uh, I'm your host Justin Dyer, chief

Investment Officer here at a WM Capital,
always joined by me and Han portfolio

manager at a WM Capital, and, uh,
my right hand man on a WM Insights.

And as I alluded to, right, the we
are, what, two weeks largely into 2026.

And gosh, it seems like every day
or every other day there is a, a

major, not, not just, you know,
interesting news item or event.

There is a major potentially
market moving, uh, event out there.

So we're gonna talk about
quite a few of those.

They all kind of weave together.

Um.

But it seems kind of
what, what is top of mind?

Mina, and you correct
me if I'm wrong, but.

It, it's the kind of precious metal
thing, and that is really the, the,

the through line that is being driven
by a number of these bigger stories

that I'm sure everyone is aware of.

Right?

The fed, uh, the
geopolitical side of things.

You name it.

Right.

Again, there's there's a number
of, of very, uh, interesting

stories, um, coming out either
as come out or coming out, right?

You even throw in the Supreme
Court, eminently about to weigh

on, uh, the tariff policy.

Like that's gonna be quite,
quite an interesting.

Uh, when it comes, maybe it will, will
come after this has been recorded.

But let's jump, let's jump into the, the
precious metal or really gold, right?

Gold is the shiny one that
gets the most attention.

Um, silver has been in the conversation
as well, but kind of riding on

the co coattails of, of gold.

But Mina, why don't let, let,
let's start with a quick reminder.

I think we've recorded this at least
in the last year, but it, it's always

great to go back to first principles.

At least what do we think about
gold from an investing standpoint?

And then we can get into like
what's going on with it right now?

Why is it behaving the
way it's been behaving?

All that good stuff.

Mena Hanna: Yeah, from an investment
standpoint, and when we think

about creating a portfolio that has
long-term potential and long-term

gain potential, we want to invest in.

Something that creates cash
flow, something that has

some form of cash flows.

And the best way of doing that over time
has been to invest in businesses that

are profitable, that are productive,
that give you a return of capital in

the form of dividends, and also capital
appreciation as they, as they grow.

They just scale and develop new
technologies, release new products.

You have the benefit of
capital appreciation and of

also cashflow from dividends.

So we really look at growth in
investing in something that is

going to yield something over time.

Gold, silver, precious metals in
general don't fit that quota, that

status because they have no cash flows.

You don't make money by
holding a bar of gold.

I would actually say you lose money
because you have to pay insurance costs.

You have to pay for storage if
you're doing it, you know, you buy

a safe, if someone's professionally
doing it, they have their own

security that they're paying for.

They pay for their own insurance,
and you as the holder ultimately have

to, uh, pay for all of those costs.

There's no free lunch, so.

Instead of investing in something that
has positive cash flows, you invest in

something that has negative cash flows,
and your only hope there of having a

successful outcome is that more people
tomorrow want to buy what you have.

The supply stays low, the demand
increases, and you just get the benefit

of capital appreciation from more demand.

And to me that's, that's
a hope based strategy.

That's not an investment strategy.

Not sure if you, yeah,
what you would add to that.

Justin Dyer: The, the only point I'll,
I'll put on it and then we'll get, get

through all the boring stuff, is the
reason why we do this is, or don't do

that rather, is because it, we don't
have a confidence in the outcome.

We don't have as high a confidence in
the outcome and in order to support.

True multigenerational wealth, the a
hundred year family, we want to have as

much confidence in the investments we're
we're making on your behalf as possible

versus the more speculative nature.

It doesn't mean gold will not appreciate
in price or depreciate in price.

We just don't have confidence
in how it behaves and when it

will behave in certain ways.

Now, I will say it hasn't
actually outperformed equities.

Uh, even though there are some
strong, strong A advocates or

the s and p 500, let's just use
that, it hasn't outperformed even

though there's some strong act.

Advocates that believe
gold is the end all be all.

Um, but it also just doesn't have these
predictable movements that we can really

have strong confidence in to rest your
family's future on at the end of the day.

So, uh.

Very important point.

A lot of kind of the nuts and
bolts, nitty gritty there.

It's out of the way.

What's going on with gold, right?

It has been on an absolute tear.

It was the best performing
asset, major asset last year.

Had a phenomenal 2025.

It's continued to move up pretty strongly
so far in the first couple weeks of 2026.

What is going on?

Mina?

Mena Hanna: Yeah, there's,
there's a lot of things going on.

Um, and we have to get, we have to
get a little bit political here,

but, uh, a lot of the geopolitical
tension is going to be a tailwind for

gold in any kind of precious metal.

Um.

I would say, and we've actually seen
this with Iran and how their banking

system completely shut down recently.

But when you're not able to access your
capital from a banking system because

of a geopolitical conflict, the only
thing that you can really trade or have

access to is gold, precious metals.

So in times of stress like this, you
will see people buying precious metals.

The other piece, and this is tied
to the comment that you made earlier

around the Fed, there's a lot of
distrust with not only our Federal

Reserve, but a lot of central banks
and federal reserves out there.

So when that happens, you have people
not believing in currencies, fiat

currencies, whether it's the dollar,
the Euro, the Iranian real, and you

have people having to shift that
money from currency to something else.

Typically when there is a
flight, to call it safety,

people will buy precious metals.

A lot of the times, if they don't
believe in the currency, you're

gonna buy something physical that
you can see that no one's going to

remanufacture that's just there for you.

So all of these things together have
led to over the past 14 months, have

led to fantastic periods of return for.

Gold and silver, but these are
really like anomaly time periods.

If you, if you go back and if you
look at the price charts of both of

these precious metals and we'll, we'll
throw a few graphics up right now.

You get these massive, massive spikes
up in value and then you typically

get sell offs when things cool down,
when people chill out a bit, uh, when

there's less stress going around and.

There's just a call it return to the
mean, and if you really look at the, the

annualized return of these precious metals
over time, it's kind of underwhelming.

So that's, that's what I see from a high
level, from an investment viewpoint.

Gold is just not the best place to put
your money over extended periods of time.

Justin Dyer: Right, and,
and benefiting from those.

Situ those environments where it
has peaked, uh, or spiked rather.

That's predicting the future.

Now, some people say,
oh, well, gold to hedge.

Well, you know what?

Hedges cost money and if you have a
well-structured portfolio, a well-built

portfolio, we've gone through that, right?

Build the foundation so then you can have
this strong structure and then build the

nice amenities outside of that, right?

If you think through portfolio
construction in the right way that

supports your unique priorities,
you don't need those type of.

hedges like a gold in order for
your, uh, your priorities to be met.

And, and again, you're, you're also
costing yourself money, whether it's

because you have to pay to hold the,
the gold or you're paying in, in, um.

upside, if you will, based on the, the
returns that that Mina just highlighted.

It's just, uh, it, it, it really isn't.

The juice isn't worth the squeeze.

Let's use that good old adage, uh, around
gold in its place in the portfolio.

Now again, there are periods of
time where political instability or

inflation concerned or distrust in.

Currencies does drive uncertainty
around the world and the price up,

and that is, this is one of those,
those periods of time you can't.

Always be in every single asset,
uh, a after the fact, right?

Like that is just kind of
the, the nature of investing.

And if you were employing that sort
of strategy, you would basically

be chasing your tail and buying
high, and then selling low, which

is a, a recipe for disaster.

Um, let's

Mena Hanna: There's

Justin Dyer: go through, oh, go for it.

Mena Hanna: no, I was gonna say,
there's one thing that's also I

thought did a bunch of research
beforehand, um, that was fascinating.

You mentioned that gold is kind of
having its moment right now and hasn't

really gone anywhere for, call it the,
the 10 years prior to this real rally.

If you go into a lot of the AI tools,
and this is where I think finance

and financial literacy as well,
they're, they're both so important,

knowledge and, and literacy.

You ask a lot of these AI platforms,
Hey, compare the s and p 500

with gold over the last 30 years.

I did this just to kind
of produce these numbers.

It'll give you a wrong return,
and the reason it gives you

a long return is exactly what
you said around the cash flows.

It, first of all, doesn't factor in any
negative cash flows for gold, which,

okay, let's just, let's just give it that.

Let's say you're able to buy gold at spot.

There's no storage costs.

You throw it in a drawer,
you never lose it.

You're all good on that end.

It, it is.

AI is looking at, and a lot of
these precious metal marketers

right now are just looking at
the price of the s and p 500.

Without reinvesting dividends, and
that moves the needle significantly

in when you actually pull the correct
amount of the total return of the s and

p 500 and reinvesting your dividends.

Gold blow or gold gets blown out
of the water by the s and p 500 and

by other just equity indexes and.

That comment that you made, again,
like you are giving up a lot, and

if you had only been in gold for the
past 30 years and compared that to

the s and p, you gave up a lot and
you gave up even more if you held it

for 50 years or for a hundred years.

So your best long-term strategy is
to invest in these profitable cash

flowing businesses that we do have
certainty of having a positive return

and, and a, and a really good return.

Over extended periods of time.

Justin Dyer: I.

Topics, questions that come from you,
all the listeners or that are just

generated from current events, right?

Like we've said, plenty.

There's a lot going on right
now and distill those down

into the long term mindset.

There are a.

There will and always have been
periods of time where these specific

investments capture people's attention.

It's even more pronounced nowadays
with social media where, you know, the

virality of, of certain, uh, topics
just gets ref fed and ref and ref and

amped up and amped up and amped up.

And we just want everyone to, to.

Learn and re re remind yourselves
listening to this podcast that

there is a tried and true method.

The data supports being patient, taking a
step back, having a thoughtful approach.

You know, you name it, go back
and listen to plenty of our other

podcasts, um, and you'll, you'll
get what I'm talking about here.

And hopefully this one in and of
itself today is a great reminder on

not chasing your tail with respect
to gold, but also what's going on.

Right.

It is interesting to follow
some of these stories.

Certainly it is from our, our vantage
point and we love talking about them,

but we also know through years of
experience, years of looking at the data.

What the best way to support your
a hundred year family, um, is,

which is a very patient, long-term,
purpose-driven, uh, very tailor made

approach to, to, uh, to money management.

So hopefully that, that's helpful.

We'll wrap there.

Oh, Mina, you got one more point.

Go for.

Mena Hanna: Yeah.

On the a hundred year family side, you,
you just triggered another point in

my my mind, because I looked this up.

If you would've invested a
hundred thousand dollars in gold

a hundred years ago, you'd have
a little less than $20 million.

If you invested that same a
hundred thousand in the s and

p 500, you'd have $2 billion.

So that is a difference.

It's a difference of 5% annualized,
but compounded for a hundred years.

You have.

A hundred times as much money in the
s and p 500 as you would in gold,

2 billion compared to 20 million.

It is.

It is shocking and yeah, we just have
to be, everyone is investors like I, I

will look at gold and I have some fomo,
but you have to kind of differentiate

short-term movements from long-term
fundamental facts that we just trust

more than these short-term movements.

Justin Dyer: Yeah, 100%.

Yep.

Thanks for, for getting that in there.

Appreciate it.

Uh, we'll wrap there.

And until next time, own your wealth,
make an impact, and always be a pro.

Thanks for listening.