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The Honest Money Show is your guide to understanding what money really is, and where Bitcoin fits in. Hosted by Anja Dragovic, Australia's female-led, Bitcoin-only podcast, it cuts through the noise to explore how money shapes our lives, why the current system leaves so many people behind, and what a clearer, fairer future could look like.
Expect honest, accessible conversations with some of the most interesting thinkers in the space, the kind that take you from "I don't really get this" to genuinely curious. No hype, no pressure, just money, made clear.
Whether you're brand new to these questions or already deep in them, you're welcome here.
Most Americans, they work,
they watch Netflix, and then they die.
It seems to have been exposed by maybe an AI
It seems to align with the timing of Kimi-K3.
That's what people are saying.
So maybe AI's, uh, being able to find
these things that humans previously missed.
Yeah, like roughly speaking on the power law trend,
it'll be like a million dollars in 2030-ish
Of course, like I said, can be earlier,
can be later
And then on power law trend it'll hit about
ten million dollars in twenty forty five.
Joining me today on the Honest Money Show
is Stephan Livera. Stephan's been running
his Bitcoin called Stephan Livera podcast
for about eight years now. So I'm very
pleased to have him on the show. He's an
Australian Bitcoiner and he's been in the
space for quite a while. So welcome to the
show, Stephan. Thanks for having me. Thank
you so much for coming on. So let's start
with your podcasting journey because
obviously there's not many people in the
space who started so early and also who
have stayed for eight years. So that's
putting in a lot of proof of work. What
would you say are the best and the worst
moments from that experience? Well, I
mean, it's things wax and wane over time,
right? Like even, you know, at certain
eras of, you know, Bitcoin, there was, you
know, there was a massive interest in
podcasting. I think, I mean, there's still
a lot of podcasts going on, but they come
and go, right? And I think, as you said,
like, it's kind of rare that people stay
around that long or they kind of rotate in
and out to other topics and so on, which,
you know, fair enough. I mean, everyone's
got to do what they find interesting or
valuable. For me, the best, yeah, I mean,
just kind of, yeah, I mean, it's nice to
meet listeners when I'm out and about at
different events. It's good to, I think,
stay up to date on what's going on. It's
good to feel like you're kind of helping
different projects get awareness, whether
that's like Bitcoin hardware stuff or
software projects or various ideas. So
yeah, those are good. On the downside,
yeah, of course, like you take, if you're
a public person on the internet, you take
attacks. People will give, you know,
you'll get your slings and arrows. And if
you've been around for long enough, you
will just kind of get it because there'll
be all these different arguments and
fights going on. And sometimes it'll be
like, if you're on one of those sides of
the argument, or in some cases, if you
don't take a side that they want you to
take, even if you are trying to be neutral
yourself, it'll be seen as like, no, you
didn't take the right stance on this
particular thing, whatever. So that can
get annoying at times, but it's also part
of the, you know, the territory comes with
the turf, right? It comes with the
territory as the saying goes. And I guess
the other thing nowadays is more just
like, look, look at all these kind of
kidnappings and attacks and things like
that. Obviously, that's not going to be
fun if that happens to me or anyone, you
know, I'm close with. So, you know, that's
a risk, but at the same time, you still
want to grow Bitcoin adoption. So
fundamentally, that's a choice I made
about being a public, you know, putting my
name and my face out there. So yeah, I
made that choice basically in 2018 when I
started doing the podcast and self-titled
it. So, so be it, I guess. Yeah. I mean,
that's a really good perspective. There
was, I want to get into burnout a little
bit because Corey from Swan actually
tweeted me recently saying that it's quite
common for people who are very active in
the Bitcoin space to experience burnout.
Is this something you've experienced?
Well, I mean, yeah, I think at times the
kind of, I think I mentioned this kind of,
this idea of like waxing and waning, like
there are times where you're like really
going hard and really trying to like, you
know, hustle hard. And then other times
when you're sort of chilling back a bit.
And of course, life phases too, right?
Like when I started this show, I was, you
know, single, no children. I'm now married
with kids. So as you go through those life
changes, that also impacts, you know, your
time that you can use on this to spend on,
you know, podcasting or researching or
editing or whatever other things you're
doing. So yeah, those are a few things.
And then, yeah, just, I guess if you're
looking to like the opportunities that
come to you, right? If you're looking for
sponsorship or if you're not, or you're,
you're doing other things, maybe you're
advising Bitcoin companies here, or maybe
like for a lot of people, maybe they're
doing the podcast on the side, right? Like
they have their day job, maybe that's like
a fiat job, or maybe they're working in
the industry per se. They're working in a
Bitcoin company or a crypto company and
doing the podcast on the side. Or in some
cases, it's kind of related because maybe
they are in media, like they work for a
media company in Bitcoin and that part of
that is their job. So it can really vary.
But yeah, I guess for me, it's like my
podcast has just been in the personal name
and it's just stayed that way since. Yeah.
And I want to get a little bit into your
stance on Bitcoin versus crypto, because I
know you've been a very long time advocate
trying to educate the public on what the
difference is. And yeah, I'm curious to
know firstly, first and foremost, like
what makes Bitcoin more secure to crypto?
And then secondly to that, I am curious to
know if you have ever experienced your
conviction in that space waiver, and maybe
like going through different conferences,
whether you were had people, you know, had
conversations with people in the crypto
space, and then you were left questioning
yourself whether perhaps we were, you
know, maybe too I don't know, dogmatic
would be one way to put it. Yeah. So
here's how I, and actually this comes back
to even why I even started my podcast,
right? Part of it was I was frustrated
with the sheer number of scams and, you
know, blockchain technology, garbage stuff
that was going on in those times, right?
And that was part of why I was talking
about like Bitcoin only or Bitcoin, not
crypto, these kinds of ideas. But I mean,
there's some elements on which I could say
I was either wrong or I thought about it
the wrong way. So I'll explain it this
way. Now, of course, I still only promote
Bitcoin. I'm not, not about to start
promoting shit coins, but I see it more
like it's like in the earlier days when
stable coins were new and it was Tether.
Most of us thought Tether was going to get
shut down, right? Like most of us thought
Tether would not survive because maybe the
government will come after them with the
KYC, AML stuff, sanctions stuff, whatever,
whatever other reason they could go after
them. But what actually happened is Tether
got big enough that they actually do
survive. And actually now part of the
narrative is this idea that Tether is
helping the US government dollar dominance
and all these different narratives that
are out there. So for that reason,
actually Tether and stable coins survived
and they are now being brought kind of
inside the net, right? With the Genius Act
and so on, especially in the US
conversation. Maybe it's a slightly
different story in the EU, but they're
still, you know, regulated stable coins in
the EU. But Tether is, I guess there's
different treatments around that. But what
I still have maintained is that Bitcoin is
money and it's the, like, that's the thing
that has the actual chance to become money
and that really, Bitcoin is not really,
like, basically, I don't even really see
shit coins as competing against Bitcoin as
money. Whereas maybe in years gone by,
people did see that they thought, oh,
maybe Ethereum is going to be the
ultrasound money and whatever. And
obviously, I was highly critical of
Ethereum. But nowadays, it's, I mean, it's
really more like Bitcoin versus gold
versus fiat, right? Like, that's really
the three-way kind of race. But I think
Bitcoin is, you know, going to win, but
it's going to take time to get there. It
might be a few decades, right? So it's a
slow thing. So I see it like, yeah,
Bitcoin is going to be money of the world.
It's the global money because of certain
things, right? It has these
characteristics, right? It's scarce,
divisible, fungible, et cetera. Like all
these things that we normally talk about,
it's portable, it's, you know,
decentralized, all these components. And
that's why I think Bitcoin is going to win
long term for various reasons. Whether you
think it's going to be like a big print,
like a COVID print and pump Bitcoin that
way, like everyone knows what happens,
what's going to happen then. Or it's more
the other way. We get this kind of AI and
robotics material abundance story. And
then guess what? Where do you store your
winnings or your savings? You store it in
Bitcoin, the scarce thing, right? So for
that reason, I still believe Bitcoin is
going to be the overall winner. But I
think I've had to necessarily soften a
little bit on things like stablecoins. And
then because of that, where do most
stablecoins transfer today? Colloquially,
it's basically Ethereum and Tron. Right?
So the way I explain that, I would talk
about that is more like, look, if you had
to use these other things for the sake of
transferring the stablecoin, if you cannot
use, you know, Bitcoin, then, you know, so
be it. But don't think that you're buying
that thing and it's going to go up in
value, right? Like, I think that's the
important, crucial distinction. And
actually, I did my talk at Bitcoin Hong
Kong or Bitcoin Asia last year. I gave
basically a similar kind of point. I was
saying, why is Bitcoin special? Right?
Because you choose the thing that's going
to be money. These other things that you
use, you might use them only for the
utility, right? The analogy I used there
at that talk was bus tickets, right?
Nobody, if you need to buy the, if you
need to take the bus ride, okay, yeah, you
buy the ticket and you take it, you take
the ride. But it would be quite foolish.
It would be very dumb to just go
speculatively buy a lot of bus tickets
because you speculate that the price of
bus rides is going to go up and that
somehow you're going to sell the bus
ticket. No, like this is just foolish. And
this is the equivalent of people who
thought, oh, yeah, you got to buy like
Ethereum and Tron and all these other
whatever other coins because they thought
that was where the value was going to go.
The point that people didn't understand is
that value is not necessarily going to
accrue to those shit coins or to the, you
know, just because you need, like at that
time, a lot of people were using Tether on
Ethereum or Tron. But just because people
are using Tron doesn't mean the Tron coin
is going to go up, right? And that's the
important distinction. And so, yes, coins
will pump and dump and whatever. You can't
really predict which coin is going to pump
and dump. But on the long run, on the
long, over the long haul, Bitcoin is going
to, you know, win. And that's pretty much
what you look at is if you look at most of
these altcoins priced in Bitcoin, you
might get like an initial pump, but then
you get these kind of echo waves that each
of them is less. So basically, I still
of them is less. So basically, I still
recommend Bitcoin, you know, saving
Bitcoin, DCA Bitcoin. That's like what
most people should do. But you need to
think of it as a long term thing. It's
obviously not a get rich quick scheme.
Nowadays, we live in a world where, you
know, there's a lot of people trying to
gamble or do this and that. I mean,
there's like a proliferation of like
sports gambling and all these things. So,
yeah, like I think focus on earning money,
living within your means and saving into
Bitcoin for the long haul. I think that's
what works for most people right now. Can
some people try to time the market and
trade and whatever? Okay, maybe, but I'm
not really a trader. I don't think I can.
I have any special ability to do that. I
think a lot of people get sucked into this
trap of thinking that they can trade. And
so, you know, yeah, sure, people will try
to trade, but I think very few of them
will actually make money doing that,
especially once you think about taxes and
fees and all those other things. So, yeah,
for most people, just buy Bitcoin and
save. Now, there are other things that,
you know, people can choose to do or not,
whether that's, you know, borrowing
against their Bitcoin because they're
doing like the collateral theme because
they don't want to sell Bitcoin, Bitcoin,
treasury companies and things like this.
That's kind of, you know, that's like an
optional thing. But I think for most
people, just buy Bitcoin and hold, right?
That's what works, you know, for most
people. And so that's kind of how I
distinguish those things. In terms of your
question or point about like, were people
too harsh on shit coins or shit coiners? I
think things shifted over time, right?
Like, especially in that kind of 2017 ICO
era, there was a lot of this kind of very
blatant shit coin scamming going on. And
so it was important at that time. I think
it was very important at that time too,
because a lot of people would, you would
try to teach them about Bitcoin. They
would go on some exchange and it would be
fooled with, you know, yes, they might
have Bitcoin, but then they would have all
these other shit coins and things like
that. And basically many of us were
concerned that our family and friends who
we were trying to tell them, hey, buy
Bitcoin, they would go to these places and
get sold all these shit coins, right? And
so that was maybe the concern at that
time. Nowadays, I mean, that's still a
thing to some extent, but I'm less, put it
this way, I'm less kind of concerned about
going after crypto. And to me, it's more
just like, look, I just want more people
to use Bitcoin. I don't really care how, I
mean, of course I would like more people
to kind of do self-custody and learn how
to do it and all that, but obviously
easier said than done, right? Because of
all the things that have happened,
especially recently, the Coldcard hack
and all the other, you know, many of the
liquid hack, there was like a bit box
vulnerability there to patch, there was
BTC pay vulnerabilities, Boltz.exchange. I
mean, the list goes on, right? Self
-custody is harder than what many of us
initially kind of said or thought, right?
Because many of us thought, oh, hey, you
start with, you know, start with a phone
wallet, then maybe get a single signature
hardware wallet, and then upgrade to multi
-sig. And I think a lot of people didn't
do that step, right? They just kind of
stayed on single-sig. And I think that can
be brittle, right? You still have single
points of failure if you're not doing it
kind of in the multi-vendor, multi-sig
model, right? So there's different ways
you can go about that, right? So I guess
I'll stop there, but I mean, if you want
to talk about the custody stuff, the
security stuff or whatever, like we can,
but I guess I'll just, I'll just leave it
there. But the short version of it is,
yes, I still think Bitcoin only, but I
still think if people need to use other
coins for the sake of stable coins or
whatever, I mean, whatever, so be it. But
just don't, don't think that it's going to
go up long-term compared to Bitcoin. Yeah.
I'll definitely come back to the self
-custody stuff because I think that is
still topical, but I actually want to
share something with you that I learned
yesterday. So I went and met up with a
local man here who's a lawyer by trade, or
used to be a lawyer. I think he's retired
now, but he does a lot of work with the
Australian Bitcoin Industry body on
advocacy and policy. And so he speaks to
politicians and tries to, you know,
educate them about Bitcoin. Now, I was
yesterday years old to find out that in
Australia, there are some people who kind
of understand Bitcoin, but for whatever
reason, they haven't yet taken the bullet
to acquire it. What they have acquired on
the other hand is stable coins. So it's
almost like in their mind, they kind of
viscerally understand that there is some
sort of a problem with the currency
debasement, but they haven't come around
to the solution yet. And instead of like
going, and I think the analogy he used was
like the difference between a hybrid car
and an EV, you don't want to go straight
to an EV. So to them, like a hybrid car is
the palatable next step. Is that how you
see adoption unfolding? For some people.
So that's the challenge, right? Obviously,
I want more people to use Bitcoin. I would
love if everyone just used Bitcoin
straight away. But at the same time, I
can't deny that. But I think Tether have
publicly stated this number. They've got
like 400 million users globally, maybe
more. If you look at that number for
Bitcoin, it might be like maybe 100
million. And then the self-custody like in
a hardware wallet number, that's probably
like 5 million. So yes, literally more
people use stable coins than Bitcoin right
now today. But they're holding Bitcoin.
Now, of course, there's different, we
could talk about direct holders of Bitcoin
versus indirect, right? Do people hold
ETFs like IBIT and FBTC or in Australia,
like Monochrome and stuff like this? Or do
they have custodial Bitcoin, right? Or do
they have a fund? Or do they have exposure
to a treasury company that has exposure to
Bitcoin? So there's different, I guess, I
think last I checked, this might be an old
number, but like a year or so ago, I think
some of the MSTR guys, it might have been
Michael Saylor or it could have been Fong
Li, who said they had 55 million
shareholders or indirect holders of MSTR
equity, right? So that's 55 million people
who have obviously exposure to the Bitcoin
price through their stockbroking app and
so on. So I guess it's just difficult to
kind of count the exact number. Like, are
we talking on-chain, in your hardware
wallet number? That's probably, you know,
5 to 10 mil. People, with like a serious
amount, maybe a bunch, if we're talking
the number of people who have some
custodial amount of Bitcoin or crypto on
an exchange somewhere, maybe like 100 mil
-ish, maybe a little over that. But
there'd be all these people who have
custodial forms or IOU forms of exposure
or indirect forms of exposure to Bitcoin.
Of course, so to me, I've sort of, I see
myself nowadays more like, I'm just trying
to provide updated info for people. I
think in the earlier days, you kind of had
to go through an exchange and buy Bitcoin
and withdraw it maybe to your hardware
wallet or to your phone or whatever, or to
your laptop. But nowadays, there are so
many ways people can get exposure. And so
I see it more just like, it's a broader
funnel. Some of those people come in at
the top and those people might be ETF
holders or treasury companies or whatever.
And then the idea is people come down that
funnel. And of course, there are some
people who hold both, right? They might
hold some Bitcoin in their multi-sig and
also some iBit or some exposure in their,
you know, retirement accounts or SMSFs in
Australia. Or they might hold, you know, a
little bit on a loan platform. Maybe
they're doing borrowing against their
Bitcoin because they don't want to sell,
similar thing. So, you know, it'll just be
a range of exposures. So for me, I see my
role now is just to sort of help put out
educational material across Bitcoin, all
sorts of ways of getting exposed to
Bitcoin. And hopefully more of them learn
to take self-custody and learn to do those
steps that we normally talk about. But I
understand it's not for everybody. That's
where I'm at. Yeah. And I guess it also
depends on your geographical location as
well. Like some places you definitely
wouldn't consider anything but self
-custody, but places like Australia, like
I do have a friend who was very scared to
tell me, he's like, oh, actually I do have
some Bitcoin. Not the way you would like
me to have it, but he basically bought
Bitcoin through an ETF and I was like, oh
God, you don't have any Bitcoin. Yeah. But
at the same time, it's better than nothing
and people have to start somewhere. Right.
And I think this is one of the things
where sometimes what people say, here's
the funny thing people do sometimes in
Bitcoin. I've seen this, right. They come
in themselves on an exchange, a custodial
KYC exchange or whatever. And then later
they learn, they go down the rabbit hole,
you know, they read these books or they,
you know, they listen to the podcasts and
then they start learning, oh, okay, I want
to have like non-KYC Bitcoin or I want to
do, you know, have self-custody and all
these things. And then they start getting
angry at new people who come in the
imperfect way when they themselves came in
the imperfect way. And it's like, hold on,
like you didn't, you know, how many people
came in the so-called theoretically
cypherpunk libertarian way, you know, very
few. So we just have to meet people where
they are and be, the way I see it is more
like a, you know, big tent or ecumenical
kind of approach of like, look, yes,
someone might've started on an ETF. So be
it. And, you know, for some people, maybe
they still want to hold some of their ETF
because they might have their own reason
for that. Maybe they want to borrow
against their IBIT or their ETF and they
can get like a better interest rate on
that. You know, like there are reasons
people will use these things. And so
there's really no one size fits all. And
it's not even all or nothing. You can have
like a bit of self-custody and a bit of
this and a bit of that and kind of spread,
spread it all out that way. So while in
years gone by, I would have been more
like, yeah, yeah, you got, everyone's got
a self-custody. Nowadays, I'm sort of
softening a bit on that too, because I
understand, look, situations have shifted,
institutions have shifted. You know, all
of these things are kind of, they're out
there now. So it's not as memeable or
viral on social media to kind of be like,
no, only self-custody. Like obviously the
most memeable kind of most engagement ways
to kind of be, is to be an extreme
position of just like all or nothing. But
actually it's kind of in this gray middle
zone where people might have a bit of
everything. And, you know, the practical
reality nowadays is we're living in this
kind of attention economy, this kind of
engagement economy. And it's like, people
are kind of, put it this way. It's a funny
thing. I saw Nikita Beer say this. I
thought it was kind of funny. He was
saying, look, most Americans, they work,
they watch Netflix and then they die. Like
that's basically what they do. And so it's
kind of like, it's kind of harsh, but
that's what, you know, we're stuck in this
world. We're trying to get people's
attention so that they actually learn
something about Bitcoin and what it means
and what we believe Bitcoin is going to do
for the world longer term. So we're stuck
in that, right? So if we're going to get
people to even take a step, a baby step,
that's at least an improvement on what
they're doing right now, which is just not
have any Bitcoin. Yeah, that's an
important message. And yeah, I've noticed
that as well. Like I haven't converted a
lot of people to Bitcoin necessarily, but
I've got them to be more curious about it.
And I did improve their initial perception
of it. They're still not doing anything
about it, but they're like, it's
interesting. And, you know, sometimes it's
like they need to see you be successful
with it and they need to kind of look at
you as an example. And then they want to
learn. It's like the analogy would be
like, maybe it's like diet and fitness,
you know, like someone sees, oh, hey, oh,
you know, you lost all this weight or
you're looking really good. How'd you do
that? Now I want to copy you. It's a
similar kind of thing in Bitcoin, like as
well, they maybe they need to see you be
successful with it and then be like, oh,
okay. It worked for Anja or it works for
Stephan or whatever. So I think it's going
to be a bit like that because people don't
really want to get preached to, you know,
maybe there's a small number of us who
kind of can learn from watching podcasts
and whatever, but otherwise you just kind
of have to see it become a normalized
thing. It just has to kind of be normal
and you just kind of see other people
doing that. And then you're like, oh,
okay, well, it works for them. So maybe
it'll work for me too. Yeah. Yeah. Well,
they'll be waiting a while for it to turn
something meaningful for me, but you know
what? It's better than never. Well, look,
I think it's sometimes it's difficult to
talk about low time preference, right?
Because people want now, now, now, right?
And Bitcoin is not get rich quick. It's
just not. Maybe if you got in, in like the
super early years and it was crazy, you
know, volatile in those days, but it's not
get rich quick. You can accelerate your
timeline to being financially free, but
it's not get rich quick. And that's maybe
that's part of the challenge, right? Like
it's more like a five to 10 year thing and
you have to be able to save even when it
feels bad, right? Even when the market is
telling you, oh, Bitcoin is dead. You're
an idiot for saving in Bitcoin. And
paradoxically, those are the best times to
be buying Bitcoin, right? Because the time
when they're saying, oh, Bitcoin is dead,
those have often been historically, those
have been the cyclical entry
opportunities, right? The entry of the
cycle was, you know, the COVID bottom in
March, 2020, or the, you know, these,
these kind of different bottom, the FTX
bottom in like November, 2022, when
Bitcoin hit like 15K or 16K. And now, as
we speak right now, it's 84K in US dollar
terms. So, you know, and I think recently
it's, none of us knows for sure, but it's
probably, you know, reasonably high
likelihood that 58K earlier this year was
the bottom for this cycle, right? And who
knows where it goes, but, you know, it's
like that, that, that is the hard thing to
teach people to actually save for the
longterm. Um, and to be able to save into
this thing, even when people are telling
you you're an idiot for getting into
Bitcoin or saving into Bitcoin. Yeah, you
do get a lot of that. And now, unlucky for
me, I wasn't friends with Stephan Livera
back in 2013. I'd be, I'd be very rich
right now, but, but, you know, I actually,
let's take that angle because I'm very
curious to know in your own story, you, I
imagine you'd have friends in your life
that didn't listen to you. And then years
later, they're like, I should have
listened to him. Basically. Yeah. I mean,
that is basically what happened. So yeah,
a lot of them, I think the thing is at the
time, and this is a common thing when
people get into Bitcoin, like when they
really get into Bitcoin and they kind of
go down the rabbit hole per se, we are
shouting from the rooftops. We're trying
to tell our friends, Hey, you got to get
into this thing. Like it's so important,
but they don't listen. They don't want to,
because maybe they don't think you're
successful. They don't think there's a
reason that you're obviously they don't
think you're correct. You know, there's a
lot of these examples, um, you know,
where, and not, not only that, there are
some people who I got them to be able to
buy some Bitcoin, right? Just from like,
she almost like grabbing them by the
shoulders and shaking them. Hey, you gotta
buy Bitcoin. You gotta get some. And then
they kind of sold it soon after, right?
Because they hadn't done the work to
really have a long-term thesis. And then
some of those people later came back and,
you know, then got back into it and were
like, Oh, I should have, I should have
hodled, right? Like I should have been
hodling. Right. Uh, so there's not much
you can do there. I think you just have to
try to meet people where they are, try to
help explain what you can. But at the same
time, it's sort of a shill lightly idea of
like, if you try to ram it down someone's
throat, you know, they're not necessarily
going to accept it.
Yeah, so, so look, yes, there were some people
who I told about it and they didn't
necessarily take it on because yeah, they
didn't think it would work or maybe they
did buy a little bit, but then they sold
it like soon after, or they sold it when
it was like just a little bit up, not like
waiting for the full, you know, uh, story
to play out. It was hard though. Like,
because the custody story was harder. Um,
the, you know, the narrative was a lot
harder. It wasn't as, as established,
especially in those early years, like when
Bitcoin had a bear market in, you know,
2014, 15, it wasn't so clear that Bitcoin
was going to come back. You know, it just
wasn't that obvious. Um, so, you know,
what can you do? I think people, um, just,
uh, you know, they, they're going to take,
it's going to be like a two steps forward,
one step back thing. And even when people
are new, sometimes they'll, and it's not
just people like institutions, countries,
they may buy some and then sell some. And
then later realize, oh no, I shouldn't
have sold. Or I should have, you know,
tried to hold onto as much as I could. Um,
and then sometimes even people take a
weird journey where maybe they think, oh,
I need to mine Bitcoin or I need to do
this other thing. And then only later they
realize, no, I should have, what I should
have done from day one is just buy it and
hodl. Like that's basically what most
people should just do. They should just
buy and hodl and learn about the other
stuff later. If you want to get into those
things, like if you want to do Bitcoin
mining or other things, but really step,
step, you know, the main thing is to buy
some. And then that's the other thing.
Once you actually own some, then you might
spend some more time learning about it
because without that kind of skin in the
game, you might not care to go and like
read the books or listen to the podcasts.
And you kind of need to read the books and
listen to the podcasts to build up your
own story or your own thesis or your own
conviction. Because if you come into it
without having conviction, you'll sell in
the bear market. And that's like a common
story for people, right? They might buy
the top because normally when people hear
about it or buy it, they're buying it at
the top and then they end up selling in
the bottom. And obviously that's not a
good experience for people. So that's also
the other thing like that we as advocates,
if we're trying to advocate, educate
media, Bitcoin media, you have to be aware
of, you know, the fact that when people
come in, often they're coming to you close
to the cycle top, right? Because that's
what they hear. They're singing it on the
news. They're hearing it. They're talking
about all this stuff. So those are also
things we have to think about. But at the
same time, you can warn people, you can
tell them, hey, look, like now it's kind
of, you know, or especially if it feels
like we're kind of getting into the, not
now, but like at other times over the
course of Bitcoin's, you know, life cycle,
at times when it's been, you know, in the
bull run, that's the time when people feel
like it feels good to be buying. It feels
good for these people to be even levering
up to go into Bitcoin. When paradoxically,
again, it's the other way around. The time
that was best is when kind of everyone
hates the asset. They think it's over.
People were saying it's, you know, dead.
Those were the times to be buying and so
on. So, you know, it's, it's always a bit,
counterintuitive with these things, with
these things. And so that's just the
nature of it. So, you know, you do what
you can, but you also remember and
recognize that people are human and they
have their own biases. They have their own
way of thinking about it. They're not
going to align straight away with, let's
say, the Bitcoin maxi message that we
might be putting out. Yeah. I want to ask
you, because obviously you've been in
Bitcoin for a while and you would have
heard all the different narratives come
and go. And like, when it comes to pricing
Bitcoin or just trying to understand what
its performance is going to be in the
future, there are a number of models that
people frequently refer to. And I know
that like back in the day, the most
popular one, which has since been debunked
is the stock to flow model. Like, have you
seen, I guess the question is for you, is
like, do you actually trust any of those
models? Trust is a strong word, but I like
the power, I like the power law. And I
will put my hands up and say, I actually
was the one who did the first interview
with Plan B in 2019. It was actually my
interview with Plan B. And then from then
that became a thing. I don't think it's,
you know, right, right now, obviously. I
think it's more like we got too carried
away with what we thought or many of us
thought Bitcoin would get adopted so much
faster than it really did. I do like the
power law. I think power law is a more
realistic projection of where things are
going. Even that could break down, of
course, but it nevertheless feels a bit
more grounded. So I look at that as just
like a baseline of where things are going.
Of course, it could be higher, it could be
lower, but it gives you like a rough idea
of where things are going. And it kind of
makes sense in terms of how the scaling of
Bitcoin works, right? Like many things,
like even in the internet grew on a power
law or certain things grew like in that
proportion. So I think that's interesting.
And yes, it does have a diminishing
returns, which obviously some people don't
like that idea. They want it to be, you
know, growing faster. Um, but I think
that's just the nature of how these things
grow because it's kind of like wealth is
not equally distributed. People and
knowledge are not equally distributed. And
that's, that's just the way it's going to
go. So, you know, if you look at like
right now, I think power law, like the
middle, the simple trend line is kind of
about 140k ish. And as I think now it's
84k. So we're below the line per se right
now, but there'll be other times when
you're above the line. And, and, and the
funny thing is that those times people
will be like saying, Oh, see, power law is
going to break to the upside or it was
going to break to the downside. And
funnily enough, it like this recent cycle,
it did kind of bounce off that bottom
around 58k around 60k. Um, and that was
roughly about where like kind of the lower
quantiles or like the lower levels, uh,
were, uh, not to say it couldn't go lower,
like it could. Um, but it was just, it's
more like there's a strong sort of
magnetism back to sort of, there's like a
magnet effect. You can think of it like
I'm oversimplifying a bit, but there's
almost like a magnet effect back to the trendline.
And so I think on the longer
term, that's kind of loosely where it's
going. So, um, yeah, like roughly speaking
on the power law trend, it'll be like a
million dollars in 2033 ish. Of course,
like I said, can be earlier, can be later.
And then on power law trend, it'll hit
about $10 million in 2045. So that's kind
of loosely how I kind of think it's going
to go, but yeah, none of us knows for
sure. Uh, and I don't really use it to
trade. I just use it to get a rough idea
of like where I think it's going, uh, and
to sort of ground myself from the more
fantastical predictions, whether they are
to the upside or to the downside. Yeah.
And there's, there's a lot of those as
well. So I always just think of, you know,
the, I guess the experience a noob would
have coming into this place space, not
knowing who to listen to, what to listen
to. And obviously it's kind of hard to
discern what's a trustworthy source and
what's not. Um, but let's talk about bear
markets because I've just survived my
first bear market. Is it true that the
first one is the hardest? Yeah, probably.
I mean, because after that you're
generally up, right? And so then the next
bear market, yeah, it might be down from a
high, but you're still up overall. And so
that might be kind of psychologically
easier to deal with. Um, but the biggest
thing really is to just make sure you are
buying and DCA-ing the bear market, right?
That is so, so important because the power
of DCA is also the volatility of Bitcoin.
And so if you were consistently buying
during past bear markets, you, and then as
soon as Bitcoin came back, you know, to
its old level, all those buys you had done
below were now, you know, in profit. And
so that's like such a, it's just such a
key thing, but it's psychologically
difficult, right? And that's why, you
know, people talk about auto DCA,
automatically DCA-ing and things like
this. Uh, but you know, nevertheless, it's
always, it's always a difficult thing
because that's the time when people maybe
switch off or they, maybe they're not
watching as much Bitcoin content during
the bear market because they feel like,
oh, it's all over or it's not coming back
or whatever, or they got bought into
whatever fake narrative, whether it was
quantum FOD or this other thing or that,
you know, whatever. Um, so yeah, like I
just think the important thing is to just
make sure you're stacking through the
bear. Yeah. And on this bear market, I
actually just want to take a step back and
tell you a random story. So years ago, I
wanted to look into becoming a vegan and I
joined this Facebook group, which I
thought was going to give me access to
resources from other people who have tried
the vegan diet. And lo and behold, I was
put off veganism very quickly because this
whole Facebook group was nothing to do
with education, nothing to do with, um,
how to get started and where you can buy
food. It was just quarreling and arguing
over ideology and whether it is moral or
immoral to pick up a shelf, shell off the
beach and make a necklace with it. Like it
was just this kind of level of, um, and
this bear market very much kind of felt
like that for me in the Bitcoin sense that
I almost wanted to like rage quit the
community, not, not the Bitcoin. I was
never going to sell my Bitcoin, but I just
found it really hard. And I don't know if
this is like typical of a bear market that
we typically just start with this internal
fighting or was it just this bear market
in particular that was pretty bad in that
regard. So on one level, there's always
been fighting and there always will be
fighting in Bitcoin, right? That's just
always like, and there's probably more
fights to come. Let's be honest, right?
Like whether it's the consensus cleanup
or, you know, uh, a covenants upgrade or a
quantum thing and people fight about
what's the next, what's the right way to
go with quantum? What do you do with the,
you know, they'll say, what do you do with
Satoshi's coins? Or are we going to
disable ECC spend? What do we have a
quantum witness discount? Which quantum
scheme are we going to go with? If we're
going to do one at all, right? Like all
these things could well have big arguments
about them. So, um, what do you do about
that? Look, ultimately you don't have to
get involved in every argument, right?
Like, I think that's, that's, that's the
bottom line. Like you don't have to get
into every fight and yes, there've been
fights all like whether the privacy wallet
guys are fighting other privacy wallet
guys or hardware wallet guys are fighting
other hardware wallet guys or, um, you
know, different, you know, uh, covenant
people were fighting other covenant people
on what they wanted. Like there's always,
yeah. And I think this recent, obviously,
if you're referring to all the 110 stuff,
like that was, yeah, like it was just
crazy. And I, I think for a while they had
kind of built up this kind of mob and they
would go after people. And what I noticed
is a lot of the builders and technical
people in the community were just over it.
They didn't want to get involved. They
didn't want to have to get into, wade into
those debates. So they would just stay out
and stay quiet. But then I saw a bit of a
concern with that because it looked like
online, like they were just kind of
dominating this narrative of like, oh, if
you're not pro filters and all this stuff,
obviously now it looks really dumb because
like the whole bit 110 thing looks like,
you know, bit 110 itself kind of failed.
And then now they're off doing hard forks
and this and that, and they're kind of,
uh, having their own little purges and
fights there. But the rest of the Bitcoin
ecosystem, the Bitcoin ecosystem and
industries is moving on. Um, so, you know,
in the end it didn't end up being that
relevant. Right. Um, so yeah, I mean, but
yeah, to your point about infighting and
this kind of thing, look, you don't have
to take a stance. You can just say, I
don't have a view. I don't know. I don't
know. That was a problem apparently. That
was a problem for me. Yeah. Well, I mean,
that would be, yeah. So, cause what'll
happen is if you interview someone from
one side, then I'll be like, no, you need
to interview my guy who I want you to get
on. Or if you haven't taken the stance
that they want, they'll be like, Hey, why
are you staying silent on this very
important issue? Like this kind of thing.
Right. So they, they would try to rap you
in, in that way. Um, so yeah, I mean, I
found myself trying to, they were trying
to rope me in to take their stance. Uh,
and there were some elements of which I
agreed earlier on, but others, I was sort
of like saying, nah, guys, I don't think
you can really stop this. Um, or at least
not in a way that we're kind of
comfortable with given the trade-offs of
all these other things, but it was just a
very nuanced thing. And it took a long
time to get to the bottom of it because
there were all these different rabbit
holes and things to understand, um, which
now seems kind of obvious, but at that
time it didn't feel obvious to people, um,
to like to the mat, to the, you know, to
the masses, let's say of people who were
just kind of watching on, they had sort of
seen it like, Oh, there's kind of
something going on in there, but I don't
really want to kind of get into that.
Cause it's kind of, it's not their day job
to go and learn these things. And they
would rather just focus on what their main
thing is in Bitcoin or outside of Bitcoin,
whatever that is. And that, you know, I
think in the end, well, I think it was the
right outcome in terms of like
understanding that, you know, you can't
really stop this spam stuff, at least not
the way they want it. Yeah. But do you
think this is, it's only a matter of time
until this kind of, um, argument comes
back up, maybe in a different form. Well,
not the spam stuff. I think that's pretty
much that. I think that chapter is
basically written now. Like, I think it's
kind of like, I think people realize now
that you can't stop it. Right. And so
while Bitcoin, you know, obviously we
think of it as money, you know, that it's
going to become global money, sound money,
you can't really stop the spam. And I
think these guys, maybe some of them get
angry about that because they think, yes,
you can with this and that. And it's like,
well, no, you tried and it didn't. And,
you know, yes, there may be some of them
who would argue, no, no, you just didn't
try hard enough. But some people will say,
look, like, I don't think it was going to
work. There were all these methods shown
of how to spam the chain, even in a BIP
110 compliant way. So what are you, what
are you really talking about? And so
eventually I think the argument sort of
won the day in terms of people recognizing
that, you know, this kind of spam fight
was just a bit, you know, like there's not
a lot you can do about it. Um, so yeah, I
don't think that, I don't think there'll
be that many future arguments about spam
in the Bitcoin community. Of course, those
guys in there kind of whatever, Blake
coin, whatever, they'll have their own
little internal arguments. Sure, whatever.
But that's, that's irrelevant at this
point. So the real more relevant things
will be more like, okay, are we going to
have consensus cleanup? Are we going to
have a covenants upgrade? Are we going to
have quantum stuff? Like, I think there
may be fights about those things. Uh, and
it's more likely that we get fights about
those things because people might disagree
about the right way forward, um, on those
things. So we'll see. Um, and of course,
as bigger and bigger institutions, get
involved and more involved, they'll want
to say, so we'll see what happens there.
And of course, there'll also be arguments
about like, oh, is Bitcoin too ossified to
do anything? Uh, and then that may be
another reason that people who want to
promote their old coin will sort of bring
that narrative. So, you know, some of it
is just like, we've seen it before. We'll
see it. We'll see it again. Yeah. That's
an interesting, um, thread to follow the
big institutions throwing money at
whatever they preferred. Yeah. That's
going to be interesting, but it kind of
has happened before with the block size
wars, right? Yeah. So, I mean, that's the
thing. So that's definitely something that
people might get a bit concerned about,
but let's just, let's kind of disambiguate
a little bit what was going on, right?
Because in that case, the 2017, 2016, 2017
case, that was an example where big
companies in Bitcoin and some of the
mining groups looked like they were coming
together to put in a hard fork for
Bitcoin, right? To raise the block size.
And like, and then the big cash people
split off in August of 2017. And then
there was the kind of the Segwit 2x thing.
That was what kind of successfully got
rejected, um, by the market. I think this,
you know, the Bit110 thing was more like,
they want to do a soft fork to fight spam
and most people were like, no, beat it.
Um, and then in the future, it might,
it'll be more like, well, what soft forks
are we going to do if, if we're going to
do a consensus cleanup and covenant stuff,
those will likely be soft forks. And then
quantum stuff. I mean, that could all, I
think that may also mostly be soft forks.
Um, so I think what we'll see is more like
if there are serious proposals put on the
line or put on the table, we may see fork
futures, right? So just back in 2017 at
the time of Segwit 2x, Bitfinex put up a
futures, uh, or prediction, I think
futures markets or tokens, future fork
futures. And so you could buy and sell B1X
and B2X if you wanted the 2X or 1X. And so
as an example, like off the top of my head
at one point, it became pretty clear, like
when the B2X token was like 0.15 and the
B1X token was 0.85, right? Like it was
clear, like, obviously people do not want
2X. And so I think it'll be a similar
thing with quantum stuff, right? Like
people will come out with different ideas.
And once there are serious proposals put
on the table, then there may be some fork
futures markets and, you know, the whales
will go to play and they'll sort of sell,
buy and sell one side or sell the other.
And then that will sort of help, um,
decide what the market is thinking on
these questions around, whether it's
quantum stuff or other things. Uh, and
that's how it'll probably be done. So
we'll see. Um, nowadays there is the
consortium. So I did an episode with Mike
Schmidt from Brink and he is also the
volunteer coordinator, I'll add, um, for
that, uh, consortium. Uh, so obviously
some big players as part of that, like
MSTR and BlackRock and various, uh, big
companies, uh, are committing some funds
there on quantum. Um, and so we'll just
have to see, we'll have to see more
research on exactly what is the mitigation
pathway. How soon is it coming? If it's
coming? Um, so yeah, we'll see. So it is a
security consortium and it's mainly about
quantum that one. Um, but we do have
people like who are known in Bitcoin who
are part of that, like Mike Schmidt, Steve
Lee from Spiral Crypto, uh, and
Blockstream is there. So obviously Adam
Back will be involved in that. Um, and so
I think it's about just trying to move the
ball forward in whatever way we can,
whether that's getting, you know,
obviously we want to get more adoption and
we'll have to see in terms of like the
quantum and post-quantum research, uh, on
what exactly gets done there because there
are trade-offs to that, right? It's not
because the common thing is like people
might have this sentiment of like, Hey,
why didn't the doves do something? But
it's like, no, there are actually trade
-offs to whatever we decide, right? That
maybe we will, it'll take trade-offs on
what hardware worlds we use, the signature
sizes, um, stateless or stateful and, you
know, all these questions around that. So,
you know, there are fights to come, but I
think research and, um, preparation and
discussion, uh, will help people figure
out the way forward.
It almost kind of
sounds like too complicated for, for, for
a newcomer. You know, if, if someone's
brand new listening to this episode, they
may be overwhelmed by the amount of things
there is to wrap your head around. And
it's like, if you're not a technical
person such as myself, how do you, like, I
guess, I think this also goes back to the,
uh, Coldcard hack is a lot of us put
trust in the technical people to, to say
what they, they, to do what they say
they'll do, to verify the code, to do all
the things and, you know, guarantee that
something is secure, but that hasn't
happened. So do you think that's an attack
on self-custody? So I think it's more just
like there, you know, there were people
who had reviewed it and did not see it,
right? Like Ledger Donjon, right? If they
didn't see it or other security
researchers didn't see this problem, you
know, now yes, NVK and CoidKite and, you
know, DocX, yes, they should have done
code review. They should have found this.
Um, and it seems to have been exposed by
maybe an AI. It seems to align with the
timing of Kimi K3. That's what people are
saying. So maybe AI's, uh, being able to
find these things that humans previously
missed. Um, but there have been some of
these big vulnerabilities in big pieces of
software or well-reviewed, you know,
pieces of code, um, that have been found.
So I think the, like, if you really want
to do self-custody the safe way, I think
multi-vendor, multi-sig really is the
longer term answer there. I understand
it's not for everybody, but if you have,
you know, either a guided company that's
helping you with it, like a CASA or an
Unchained or something like this, or one
of these consultancy companies where they,
they don't hold any keys, but they teach
you how to do it. That's maybe one way to
do it. Um, I understand it's not as easy
for everyone, everybody to do that, but at
least for large values, um, I think that's
probably, uh, one direction. Other people
will go to a custodian, right? They'll
say, okay, I'd rather pay a custodian and,
you know, that's what they're going to do.
Uh, I, you know, personally would lean
more towards like, okay, look at these
multi-sig solutions, like, um, some of the
ones where they guide you, maybe they hold
one key or the consultancies, um, or of
course, if you're going to go hardcore
DIY, you know, that's also an option out
there too. Um, in terms of what happens
for the masses, I think things like BitKey
might be an example for the proverbial,
you know, grandma, the proverbial auntie,
who's not as technical, BitKey might be
something useful for them. Um, but of
course there's always trade-offs with
these things, right? There's maybe some,
some level of vendor lock, some level of
privacy and sovereignty trade-offs you
take for that, but maybe it's worthwhile
for them because of the usability, uh,
redundancy, the ability to recover. Maybe
it's worthwhile for them. Uh, I can't, uh,
you know, there's no, again, there's no
one size fits all. There's really not. And
so I think we're just going to see a
different, a plethora of different
approaches, whether people go to ETFs and
custodial, maybe some people go for multi
-institution custodial, maybe that's
another thing. So it's really just a mix
of those things. Uh, I think, yeah, like I
think if you want some balance of self
-sovereignty, I think the multi-vendor
multi-sig can give you some of that while
helping you make sure that you don't lose
all your coins with one catastrophic
error. Um, and I think multi-sig tooling
has gotten a lot better over the years,
right? In the earlier years, yes, it was
hard, but nowadays in 2026, it actually is
becoming more feasible. Maybe people just
need a product or a service or a
consultant to kind of guide them through
it so that they do the setup correctly.
Um, yes. Okay. So one of the things that's
kind of weighing on my mind at the moment
is I'm starting to notice an increasing
number of my audience reaching out, asking
questions. And a lot of the questions are
to do with self-custody. So what I'm
having to weigh up is being honest at, you
know, giving, giving them a quick answer,
but also being honest at the nuance and
depth, the complexity each solution brings
about. So like you said, Bitkey is the
most user-friendly option, but it comes
with some trade-offs. Um, like it's just
really hard. I don't know what, what the
weird is. I think it's just, it's about
continual learning, right? I think you
just have to embrace continual learning.
Um, as I did, as many people have done,
like it's, you know, when you're making
Bitcoin content, I would say you just have
to embrace that for yourself too, right?
You have to sort of play around with these
different setups and try to use some of
them and then, uh, coach people on what
you found and what, what works. But it is
a continual learning journey of like,
okay, this is like something, okay, with
multi-sig, you've got to have your
descriptor or this, or this way you're
doing your backup and so on. Eventually it
is all going to get kind of, a lot of
these things can get automated, but for
high security setups, sometimes it's just,
there's no substitute for having to learn
some of the, some of the key concepts
involved, because if you want to be able
to be secure and verify it and not trust,
like there's certain things you just have
to do, right? If you give, if you put more
trust into certain products or services or
people, then yes, you can make it easier,
but there are, you know, you're, you're
giving up certain things by doing that. So
I think you just have to like naturally,
um, as your, you know, the value of your
stack rises, you have to put in more work,
but remember like as your stack value
rises, it's, it's worth your while, right?
Like it's worth your while to go and pay
for that, uh, extra support, learning,
guidance, products, services. Like, you
know, I think people forget how powerful
it is, right? Because the opportunity is
the other way around too, that if you were
keeping your, you know, like if you had to
pay to secure that much gold or that much
jewelry or something like that, you would
be paying a lot as a percent, you know,
like of your value to secure it. It's sort
of like in the, in Bitcoin, yeah, you do
have to spend some time and money to make
sure you're securing your coins correctly.
Yeah. But the return to that is that you
get the sovereignty, you get the
independence, you get obviously the NGU.
Um, and I think the honest answer for some
people who just are not ready is they'll,
they'll use ETFs, they'll use custodial
stuff. Uh, but again, it comes back to,
there's no, you don't have to do, uh, one
thing for everything. You can do a bit of
both. And you don't have to do it forever
as well. Like, so you may start with a
custodian until you build up your
confidence to do it yourself. It kind of
buys you time. So yeah. Um, yeah. So it
can seem overwhelming, but you just have
to like embrace the process of learning
and just embrace that this is a continual
learning journey. Um, it can feel like
work, but at the same time, because NGU,
you are loosely speaking being paid for
that work. You're being paid by, you know,
NGU. And so you have to think of it like I
have to take it on myself to go and spend
the time. Right. So that means maybe
practice with different hardware wallets,
practice with multi-seg, practice with
these different setups in low stakes
scenarios, right? Like practice with 50
bucks on a two or three multi-seg,
practice with 50 bucks on a three or five
multi-seg, buy some different hardware
wallets, play around with that. Um, and
then as you have more confidence with it,
then you're better able to talk about it
and explain for people the different
choices for them. And, you know, just like
a carpenter has to choose the right tool
for the job. When you're out there talking
to people, whether you're at, you're at a
Bitcoin meetup or you're at a conference
or you're on your podcast, you can explain
for people, Oh, okay. Here's how you
choose the right tool for the job, right?
Is it a custodian? Is it a hybrid
situation? Like a guided, like a
situation? Is it a, user consultant? Is it
DIY, right? Spend hundreds of hours in
DIY, like which of these, and what are the
different trade-offs, privacy,
sovereignty, you know, verifiability, all
these different things. You just, you sort
of get a feeling for that over time.
I want to go to
some community questions now, cause I know
a few people from Australia were quite
eager to ask you. Um, so will Aussie
businesses ever care about the cost of
cashless transactions or do you think
they'll always be willing to pay a
middleman fee? This to do with the
lightning? Yeah. Look, I think even in
lightning though, most people will end up
using middleman for that too, right? They
might use like a payment processor and so
on. Now, of course, yes, there's BTC pay
server and there's all these ways to do
it, but in practice, people will still
want like fiat rails and they've got fiat
bills to pay. So, and especially for those
of us from the Western world, it's not
like we from now, yes, there are some
cases where people get shut down, debanked
and so on, but for most people, they don't
have a payments problem. Most people are
just like, you know, tapping their phone
or tapping their watch or tapping, you
know, their card. And that's it in the
Western world. Um, so while I'm supportive
of people, you know, doing lightning
payments and things like this for earning
and spending Bitcoin, I think most of the
value is going to be for people using it
as their savings, their long-term savings.
Uh, so I think that's going to be where
most of the value is for a while, because
this is a long journey, right? Like it's
going to be a while. We're waiting until
more people hold Bitcoin in their cash
balances to, to find the point at which
maybe it'll make more sense for them to
directly earn and spend Bitcoin. Uh, until
then it'll be a while off because there's
all these kind of benefits for them in the
fiat system. And so you can live across
both worlds by hodling Bitcoin. And, you
know, if you have fiat or people using,
you know, the fiat system, whether that's
loans or their income is coming from the
fiat side, well, then they'll just spend
that fiat side and just keep their Bitcoin
hodled away. So, you know, I think the
realistic adoption is going to be more
like, you know, just DCA to your cold
storage, right? Into your multi-sig or
whatever setup you choose is right for
you. Um, I think that's going to be the
more realistic story. Um, because you
know, the payments story is not going to
be as compelling for people because they
don't have that need of trying to be
sovereign with their payments. Most people
don't have that, some urgent need for
that. Now for the people who do really
need that, you're sure it's out there.
Like people who can use whatever, um, they
can use like some of these wallets that
have like silent payments as an example,
or like whatever, like I think cake wallet
is an example of that. Um, or even a
sparrow wallet is kind of pushing into
that direction also with silent payments.
So that's like an example on that side.
Um, but for most people, I think it's just
going to be a DCA and hodl. Yeah. So do
you think lightning will remain quite
niche for like the next decade, at least
in Australia? So the funny thing is
lightning itself is growing quite a lot
over time, right? Like the actual volume.
So I think this number is from November,
2025. River put out a report. Guess how
much volume they were seeing on the
lightning network on a monthly level? 1.1
billion. Oh wow. 1.1 billion dollars is
transferring over the lightning network.
And that was like a year ago. It's
probably more by now, right? It's growing
in a secular sense. And it's not just
like, because we think of it like as
retail, like, oh yeah, just buy and sell
your coffee for lightning. Actually, a lot
of the transactions there are relating to
exchange settlements. You know what I
mean? It's not necessarily like retail,
buying a coffee at the, you know, this
kind of thing. Now, hey, use lightning.
You know, I want more people to use
Bitcoin, full stop. So, hey, the more you
use Bitcoin, the better. But just
recognize a lot of the value and the
volume, at least for now, is going to be
at these more exchanges and businesses,
B2B. So, are overall volumes on lightning
going to grow over time? Yes, I believe
they will continue growing. But in terms
of, let's say, brick and mortar payments
in Australia, that's going to be a while.
You know, I think the other thing is we
have to think about it as Bitcoin is the
money of the internet. So, naturally, it
makes a lot of sense for internet commerce
to be done that way. Brick and mortar
commerce, maybe not as much, you know. So,
of course, Australian merchants can,
obviously, they can set up to take
lightning payments and do it that way.
And, you know, I'm supportive of it, but
I'm just, I wouldn't hold my breath for
that to happen soon. I think, I think it's
the saving side of it will be more
important and more valuable and drive more
volume in this time period, in this short
to medium time frame.
Well, thank you
so much for your time today. Do you have
any final thoughts you'd like to share
with the audience? I think probably the
big thing for me is when I was new to
Bitcoin, I thought it was all going to
happen so soon. I thought like hyper
Bitcoinization was going to come within
like a few years. Nowadays, I sort of
realized, no, it's going to be, this is a
multi-decade process. So, you know, strap
in, be ready for that, see it as a long
-term savings process and for your friends
and family, also for them, it's a long
time, long-term learning journey for them
to learn about how to use Bitcoin and how
to save into Bitcoin. Um, it's not going
to happen overnight. And so you just have
to like, don't be one of those people who
burn out too quickly because you're trying
to, you know, you're trying to burn the
candle at both ends. You can't last,
you're not going to last like that. So my
humble suggestion is, yeah, just treat it
as a long-term, um, long-term, uh, plan, a
long-term movement, um, to get people to
learn about the benefits of Bitcoin and
why they should all be saving and using
and earning and spending Bitcoin. Amazing.
Thanks again.