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TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays from 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with full episodes posted to Spotify immediately after airing.
Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” TBPN has interviewed Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. Diet TBPN delivers the best moments from each episode in under 30 minutes.
Historic day yesterday. Of course, fifty one days till Christmas. We missed it on the show. Yesterday was fifty one days till Christmas. That means today, fifty days till Christmas.
Speaker 1:Fifty days till Christmas for counting down here. It's getting pretty Christmassy right here. Apple is 50 years old. Not today. Just generally.
Speaker 2:It's generally Generally, it's old. Company.
Speaker 1:Happened over the summer. We talked about it when it happened. But, reminder, it's 50 years old. We're doing free association here. No.
Speaker 1:Of course, the midterms took over the timeline as a, The Wall Street Journal cover story. Democrats take congress in stunning rebuke of Trump. This was confusing to me. This is confusing to a lot of folks in our audience. So, I went over to Chad GPT and tried to figure out what's going on.
Speaker 1:So I asked what are the midterms? And, apparently, the midterms are US elections held halfway through a president's four year term. They happen every four years, two years after a presidential election. The twenty twenty six midterms, I guess they were on Tuesday, so yesterday. They're called the midterms.
Speaker 1:This is a fun fact because voters are effectively passing judgment on the president and the governing party at the midpoint of the presidency. And so Okay. Now you're kinda up to speed. You kinda understand what's going on with politics. We said yesterday we'd get into politics deep dive, and and I think we I think we went pretty deep just now.
Speaker 1:Nailed it. I think we nailed it.
Speaker 2:No. Deeper than we've ever gone.
Speaker 1:Extremely. Yeah. No. We've been we've been pretty out of the loop. Haven't really been covering it, but there are some interesting posts, some interesting knock on effects.
Speaker 1:Tyler Cowen had a cool reflection on the election. He said, procedurally, it seems to have gone just fine. And this was a big question because the freezers are getting hacked. There were a lot of questions about, like, if the grid goes down now, that would be the worst time
Speaker 2:for some tests. Reports of, like, power outages in Florida. Yeah. I was wondering, okay. Is this, like
Speaker 1:Yeah. And the the important thing is that both sides are kinda... Like, Trump's like, yeah. We accept the results, and the Democrats are like, yeah. We won.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Great. And so it's not even that there's, like, rumors or or whispers. It's
Speaker 2:like agrees. I don't wanna speak too soon, but it seems like a functioning democracy. Yeah. It's... People were very upset Yeah.
Speaker 2:Unhappy. They sort of, you know...
Speaker 1:Yeah. No. No point.
Speaker 2:The... And the results are being accepted Yeah. Which is a is a nice change.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Ron Al Bahari is in the Wall Street Journal. He's the chief investment officer at Multifamily Office LNW. Let's give it up for Multifamily Offices.
Speaker 1:He said, I also think equity investors are breathing some kind of relief that the president is gonna accept the results. And so I'm sure everyone's seen, but the stock market is booming today. The Dow Jones is up 3%. The Nasdaq's up 1.88%. Russell two thousand is up as well.
Speaker 1:There's a bunch of positive news in the market. But the AI trade is still shifting around. Not everything is up. It's not all green. The deck is reshuffling.
Speaker 1:And Ben Thompson had a really great breakdown. 10 hot takes that we can go through in just a minute. But Tyler Cowen, in his roundup, he says, rising in status. Matt Yuglazia, socially moderate. Democrats did very well.
Speaker 1:Normie, social science results on campaign finance, and, Nate Silver predictions all did very well. Balling in status, tariffs are on the way out. Corruption's on the way out. War with Iran, wealth taxes lost in California. Gerrymandering came back to hurt Republicans given the blue wave.
Speaker 1:There's actually another name for gerrymandering that hurts you. It's a different phrase. I I I heard it from Nate Silver on some podcast, but I can't remember it. And he says, and there you go. So fun fun reflections.
Speaker 1:The prediction markets also held up well. We... I I felt like we were gonna get into a debate. Have you changed your position? Are you impressed or unsatisfied with the quality of prediction markets this time around?
Speaker 2:Overall, they called almost everything right. Yeah. I thought that obviously Texas was was a bit of a surprise. Like prediction market's not that helpful if it looks, you know, one way, you know, for months and months and months, and then in the two hours before results are in, it flips completely.
Speaker 1:This is always the trick. Right?
Speaker 2:But but, I mean, again, and it's hard to process that, you know, if if something has a 30% chance of happening...
Speaker 1:That's one three. I'll take those odds any day.
Speaker 2:Anyways, 30%
Speaker 1:chance.
Speaker 2:So, yeah, some some surprises, but but overall, like, they seem to be pretty effective. Yep. It it was interesting. There were there was a number of people both in tech and tech adjacent
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:That were basically taking the stance of the polls are wrong and the prediction markets are wrong. Like just every indicator that we have Yeah. Is And then it turns out they were actually those individuals were wrong. They were way more wrong than I think anybody even thought they were maybe wrong. Right?
Speaker 1:The wrongs don't make right in this scenario. Yeah. So Call sheet came in at 95% accuracy when the polls opened. So you can always look at a prediction market, and it's like, oh, right before the mainstream media calls the election. The prediction markets usually have it pretty dialed right before then.
Speaker 1:But the question is, like, what's the predictive power a month, two months before? But even three months before Call She was at 81% accuracy, whereas Vote Hub average was 77%.
Speaker 2:Which which that's that's 75%. Like, Just just my napkin math that feels pretty impressive given that a lot of those markets at the time were not, like, eighty twenty. Right? They they were more like sixty forty.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And so it would appear that there you you can maybe put a little bit more weight on average Yeah. On markets where there's like a definitive leader.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So from my perspective, the people felt this way with... I think it was the Emmys or the Oscars where the prediction markets were on the were on the screen. And so, you know, the announcer comes out and says, oh, the the best picture nominees are. And then you can just see, like, 99% chance that this person's gonna win.
Speaker 1:And I think Polymarket called every single one correctly. So it sort of, like, ruined the the Oh, yeah. Thrill of watching it because you're just like, oh, okay. The... Again, the one that they put on screen, one.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And that's sort of how I felt where I felt like the prediction markets were calling this blue wave for months. Yeah. It And... Worked.
Speaker 1:You can
Speaker 2:put odds on the screen during a football game because the result is not decided when somebody just walks out on the field and reads the result. Right? Whereas in some of these award shows, it literally is just like Totally. Predecided. Somebody comes out, reads the result.
Speaker 2:It's over.
Speaker 1:And so, yeah, going into yesterday, I I I was very much, like, out... Like, I'm not following it today. I I I just... I'm... I've I've processed all of the...
Speaker 1:All of this and all the downstream effects. And I think the market had as well. I think a lot of the selling off in the AI stocks, in some of the data center builders, I think that was because everyone was clocking that this was going to be the outcome. And so you don't think so?
Speaker 2:I don't. The thing is, I don't recall seeing a single person making the claim that the Texas governor was gonna be a Democrat.
Speaker 1:That's true.
Speaker 2:Yeah. At any point.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I that is sort of a, like like, a surprise.
Speaker 2:Right when the prediction markets flip last
Speaker 1:But I I I would say that although the the the Texas Texas race is important, the 40 odd data center bills are probably more important in aggregate. For sure. And so those have been in process that it would... That permitting would become more
Speaker 2:And the other thing is it's not like Greg it's not like Greg Abbott was like Yeah. Doing rallies being like, we're gonna build them all here. Yeah. No problem. He was also he was also
Speaker 1:He actually enacted a moratorium of of one month. And so, yeah, it was it was going back and forth. The other interesting story is... Yeah. I mean, compute campuses, big loser, except for in North Dakota.
Speaker 1:North compute... North Dakota voted in favor. But Ben Thompson has 10 takeaways that we can kind of run through. He says, the AI trade got it right. The most obvious reason why the stock market has been rocky over the last few weeks is the tightening of credit markets.
Speaker 1:We are, needless to say, full on into the equity funding era. At the same time, it seems that this outcome is very bad for the AI trade in the short term, but much of the pain may have already been endured because we've seen that selling off even though spot markets like the value of GPU hour is increasing, the models are getting better, but maybe there's been a process over the last few months, mostly speculative, that people have been digesting the fact that there might be a pullback in new compute coming online. So more data centers, more GPUs warehouses as opposed to
Speaker 2:The craziest thing to me is how little attention it's getting that prop 40 didn't pass. Like prop 40, as it was written, was going to destroy the model for building technology companies in California. Like I, a bunch of people on our show... That have come on our show are like paper billionaires.
Speaker 1:Sure.
Speaker 2:Right? Oh, yes. If if that would have passed, of course, it would have been litigated.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It it wasn't like, you know, on November 4, go to your bank Yeah. Get a get a cashier's check for, you know, $50,000,000 and go bring it in. But Californians like resoundingly voted against it. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I know. And I I think that there were, again, a lot flaws with the way it was written. There was a lot of incentive for different groups that would normally be in favor Mhmm. Of a of a tax like that Mhmm.
Speaker 2:To to actually be against it because they weren't gonna benefit from it directly. Yeah. But but, yeah, pretty pretty good good outcome there.
Speaker 1:The biggest loser in the California election are the the jealous senties who are trying to nerf their bean air opponents.
Speaker 2:Right? Potentially.
Speaker 1:So somebody sitting on $400,000,000, they're getting money mugged
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:When they pull up to the prime So...
Speaker 2:Yeah. Terminal. The 40 chest there was was... They were Yeah. I wanna They were spending heavily on
Speaker 1:I wanna back up the truck to try and nerf my my rivals potentially, but bad news for them because it didn't pass. Ben Thompson's second take. Neo clouds are on the edge. They've been at the forefront of the credit concerns from a credit... From a certain perspective being unable to build data centers has a silver lining in that they couldn't get the money to pay for them anyways.
Speaker 1:Moreover, Neo Cloud's facilities that are already permitted now have an asset that is going to be scarcer than expected, which is a very, very interesting... And I think every every data center project will need to be reevaluated, like what is the status of Stargate and and what's happening in in Abilene and Texas. Is all of that permitted and the moratorium will just be on new capacity because the Stargate pitch was enormous, an enormous campus. And I believe a lot of that was already approved and and good to go. So new moratoriums wouldn't reach back to that.
Speaker 1:So that still would come online. So that could be very bullish for anyone who's involved in that. At the same time, there's there's a hard scenario if you're a if you're a neo cloud that has built a bunch of data centers, then you sold all your compute on long contracts, so you're not taking advantage of the spot market being in and and being able to sell at higher rates each month after month to, you know, labs that need compute more than ever. So you're you're... You've sort of reaped all the reward on your first build.
Speaker 1:You need to go build a new building, a new data center, and now you can't. And so you can't bring new capacity online that you can sell into the spot market and and make more money on. So that's a little bit tricky. There is a... Just a tough dynamic for some of the neo clouds where a lot of them have incredibly talented people that can go and build things, but they just might not have enough money to finance them, and now they might not have enough political power to get them across the finish line.
Speaker 1:Although there are clearly some states, some areas in the country that are receptive. And they... It's not that they... Like, North Dakota is getting called out as a as a as a state that denied a data center ban. Right?
Speaker 1:But what we're not talking about is the states that didn't even have them on the menu. Right? And there are a number of states that have been receptive and continue to be receptive to the point where they haven't even had legislation to ban data centers.
Speaker 2:To me, it's great it's great data for technology industry to, like, comb through Mhmm. And look at where where people are more favorable to data centers Yeah. And go build them there. Yep. Or at least try to.
Speaker 2:Yeah. There's gonna be some areas where they're pro data center
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:That have problems getting access to energy Yep. Right, and and and other issues that they run into. Yeah. They don't all have to go to space
Speaker 1:just yet. The energy, I think, is is less of a factor. I think natural gas is pretty abundant, but you still have to build pipelines around it. And then the big thing is just like the overall infrastructure. Like, do you have big roads?
Speaker 1:Do you have the ability to move big materials around while you're in that construction phase? There are certain parts of America where even just building the house is hard because you're on dirt roads, and and and that's tricky. So, anyway, you you can see some of the Neo Cloud reshuffling happening in the market today. Ben Thompson says hyperscalers are winners. The downside for the Neo Cloud's upside for hyperscalers.
Speaker 1:Thank you. Yeah. Jeff Bezos is doing well. Amazon's way up today. They are more likely to grow their share of AI compute than they were before.
Speaker 1:Moreover, investors may be pleased if the hyperscalers ambitions are somewhat curtailed. So investors are like, oh, okay. Maybe you'll be able to bring the dividend back or return some cash. You're not gonna you're not gonna need to tap the deck markets because you won't have anywhere to invest it. This could be something that investors are excited about.
Speaker 1:Political opposition is an excuse to moderate spending. This is the four d chess I was joking about with Joe Wiesenthal, which all of a sudden is being taken very seriously. I was kind of riffing with him, and and now I've seen a number of people put that in writing as, like, their official take that this is good. And we'll see it. We'll see how it plays out.
Speaker 1:For NVIDIA Yeah.
Speaker 2:Think Yeah. Nothing is ever as good or bad as it seems.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Sort of
Speaker 2:an iron law.
Speaker 1:Nothing ever happens. Things happen.
Speaker 2:No. Nothing ever happens. You did. But
Speaker 1:Yeah. No. That's a good point. Yeah.
Speaker 2:One thing, you know, is, we got a report from from a friend who was walking up and down Sand Hill Road this morning.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah.
Speaker 2:And, they sent a clip. They heard this song, playing.
Speaker 1:This was playing outside of the Metropolitan.
Speaker 2:It was playing inside,
Speaker 1:but it was booming
Speaker 2:so loud.
Speaker 1:With the windows. Yeah. Sort of sorrowful moment from some... On Sandhill.
Speaker 2:They have to delete some tweets.
Speaker 1:Delete some tweets, potentially. This is of course the song from the w... Is it actually in the WWE documentary or is it just overlaying?
Speaker 2:I think it's just become a I think it's become
Speaker 1:a meme. Okay.
Speaker 2:Well... Wonderful wonderful song called Maintaining Love.
Speaker 1:Yeah. That's gonna go in the heavy rotation. I... I've been listening to more and more meme core on Spotify. I got Queen Street Full.
Speaker 1:Heavy rotation.
Speaker 2:Full brain rock.
Speaker 1:Brain rock. Ben says NVIDIA mixed bag, almost certainly a short term loser. Fewer data centers mean fewer NVIDIA chips. But the long term bull case for NVIDIA is that if there's a set amount of data centers that exist and then you can't build them anymore, you have to get the most tokens per watt you need to be
Speaker 2:The most efficient chip.
Speaker 1:Yeah. He has a he has a phrase for that. I forget what it's called. It's it's it's something good here making this point. ISO power means that power is the constraint.
Speaker 1:And so you already have power going to a building, but you're running some older technology, some older chips. There's now more of an incentive to upgrade those to the latest and greatest to get the most out of a particular power envelope. So...
Speaker 2:Here's a real mask off moment Mhmm. From Harley over at Shopify. Oh, yeah. He said, you know, US voters just rejected data centers everywhere they got the chance. That investment has to land somewhere.
Speaker 2:Clean hydro, open land, cold winters. That's Canada. This is a massive opportunity for us. Generational.
Speaker 1:Oh, so he's saying the data centers will go there.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Oh. He's hope...
Speaker 1:He's I I thought it was just the dollars would fund... Would would flow into
Speaker 2:No. No. No. And I and I'm joking. Of course of course, he's proudly based in in Canada.
Speaker 2:Matt Spoke says tonight Canada was given an opportunity to become the data center capital of North America. This is how Canada wins in AI.
Speaker 1:I love it. Seems like there's lots of lots of room up there. I don't know. You need the infrastructure, but probably easier with cooling and plenty of energy. So for sure, do it.
Speaker 1:The fifth point from Midterms said, advantage China. So China is in the inverse scenario. The country has plenty of power, the ability to build a lot more. They don't have leading edge chips, but they've been investing in that. And I think this is the broader discussion that will emerge is, okay, if we actually slow down our build, how real is the competition with China?
Speaker 1:It's been something that's been sort of the... It's been fearmongered about a little bit in the in the AI debate. A lot of AI, can't we just slow down? If we're worried about capabilities, if we're worried about AI safety, can't we just slow down? All of those devolve into, well, we'll lose to China.
Speaker 1:China won't catch up. We're now approaching that scenario, but we'll see what happens on the other side and and how we actually react to this and and how much the build out actually slows down. Like, it could be, just, okay. We gotta build in different states. We gotta build in some other some other areas.
Speaker 1:There's nothing that really changes in terms of
Speaker 2:Yeah. Tate take him coming online. Shared some highlights. He says, re Texas governor election. Let's take a deep breath.
Speaker 2:Can we all take a deep breath? If companies ask for no subsidies, promise a ton of union jobs, and guarantee that water and electricity costs won't rise, plus add supply, data centers can be built under her governorship. This is directly from Gina's website. Pino Hosa outlined her Texans First data center priorities for the next legislative session, which Abbott could call today, requiring American Union jobs, giving Texans a seat at the table to decide if and how data centers come to their communities. And again, like, I think that there's clearly a lot of reasons why a data center...
Speaker 2:Why a community would want. Like, I look at places like Midland where you land in Midland and you're just like in the middle of the middle of nowhere.
Speaker 1:How you gonna want what's best for me? You from Midland.
Speaker 2:Right? Listen to me.
Speaker 1:You from Midland? Listen. I
Speaker 2:But there's oil fields and there's billions of dollars of wealth creation and there's, like, you know, kind of rough but amazingly well paying jobs. Mhmm. And it's it's probably a trade that certain communities would make again Yeah. In a different context.
Speaker 1:Elon is is is taking a victory lap, I guess, saying data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now. He's like, was all part of the plan.
Speaker 2:He's probably thinking space is seems pretty appealing for me right
Speaker 1:now. Exactly. But, you know you know who else might benefit in a in a, in a build out freeze on... In America on land? Panthalassa.
Speaker 1:Remember that company?
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah.
Speaker 1:Ocean data centers. We gotta cultivate ocean power. I love that company. This is a huge, huge bobbing data center in the ocean that circles Antarctica, and it just bobs up and down using tidal energy. Such a cool project.
Speaker 1:Incredibly difficult. It's like a true mega project. You gotta use a crane to move anything around just to get... Build these things. But, certainly more near term than, getting into space, although the the SpaceX team seems like they're firing on all cylinders.
Speaker 1:Starship, they're gonna try and catch it on the next one. So the, like, the next Starship launch is like the one to go see because they're gonna send it up. It's come down. They're gonna try and catch it with Mechagod... Mechazilla, I think is the name of the the the chopsticks.
Speaker 1:And so the results are in. Data center moratoria went 43 to one. That was the final score. 43 to one. All hyperscalers must now converge on Harwood, North Dakota, the one outlier.
Speaker 1:If you're in construction or real estate, get to Harwood, North Dakota, start picking up land, go to the gas pump, fill up your tank, do whatever you can to get power in North Dakota.
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah. We've talked about merch for so long.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Talked
Speaker 2:about But I needed to be able to prove to everyone that it's actually happening. Mhmm. It's gonna be next week. What day did I say it was gonna be? When's the launch date?
Speaker 2:I think it's I think it's Thursday, the twelfth. The twelfth, we are launching the merch store, and this will be available as well as a bunch of other stuff. Very excited.
Speaker 1:Okay. Is Idaho actually voting on a state gun? Yes. This is real. I mean, you...
Speaker 1:Everyone knows they have state...
Speaker 2:What was the result?...
Speaker 1:State flower. Oh, yeah. I guess the result was...
Speaker 2:It was the, I think, Winchester model eighteen seventy three rifle.
Speaker 1:Okay. The Winchester eighteen seventy three rifle. Interesting. Well, fun for them. Funny that the the the the...
Speaker 1:We saw someone posting about that. Somebody endorsed it in their voters guide. And in that post, they said it was satirical, that they were just joking around. But I guess it would... They were just joking about them actually making a recommendation, but it was in fact on the ballot.
Speaker 2:Maybe they were joking because, like, everyone knows that it's the Winchester. And so it's not
Speaker 1:like Well, it's like ball knower. Yeah. Yeah. We got caught out not not knowing.
Speaker 2:They had to do a vote, but everyone at night
Speaker 1:Everyone knows. Yeah. Obviously. Obviously. We talked about Palsy and Polymarket.
Speaker 1:Joe Wiesenthal agrees. Huge win for Prediction markets. My only my my only take from last night, both in the run up to the vote and on election night, the prediction markets did exactly what they were supposed to do. A big confident forecast in the run up and incredibly timely conveying the data as it dropped. Nick Carter agrees.
Speaker 1:Prediction markets were spot on last night. Let's move over to what else is in the journal today, because we got a new term, a new coinage. Are you excited for this? Yeah. FOGO.
Speaker 1:You've heard of FOMO, fear of missing out. Now you need to learn about FOGO, the fear of getting obliterated in the market.
Speaker 2:I wish that Bain Capital had come up with this one. Why? Don't they own FOGO to Chow?
Speaker 1:Oh, they do. Yes. So hedge fund Elliot warns of FOGO, fear of getting obliterated in the market. The $80,000,000,000 hedge fund firm posted flat returns in the third quarter and under a 2% gain this year through September. And that is almost impressive given how much gyration there's been.
Speaker 1:You know, there's been people that have been absolutely printing, just being, like, long tech or something like that. And then there's other been... There's been hedge fund blowups and over leverages and all sorts of stuff. But Paul Singer's Elliott Investment Management compared the current state of the markets laden with debt fueled risk taking and bubbling with hype over new technologies to the roaring twenties that preceded the Great Depression. At present, virtually every alarm bell warning of a substantial bear market ahead is ringing, the $80,000,000,000 hedge fund firm wrote in an October investor letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 1:While Elliott is prepping for potentially historic upheaval, its performance is lagging behind the broader hedge fund industry. Elliott's returns were flat in the first three months ending September 30, leaving its gains for the last nine months a little under 2% according to the letter. That trails a composite hedge fund index as well as the nearly 13% total return of the S and P 500 from the same gain. And even index, even short term treasury bills were doing 3%. So they're underperforming treasuries.
Speaker 1:So are they being too cautious, or are they, you know, seeing the future here? Elliott's quarterly letters are known for their doom and gloom commentary on the dominant themes of the day. Black pill hedge fund. Just black pilling in every letter. Its October message highlighted risks building in US budget deficits, persistent inflation, private credit portfolios, and artificial intelligence hype, and it warned about market distortions caused by factors it said were more akin to gambling than investing, including including traders using zero day options and betting on meme stocks, which they have come up against because, of course, Elliott is the the famous hedge fund that went up against Wall Street bets in the Robinhood GameStop saga.
Speaker 1:Singer and Jonathan Pollock, the firm's two chief executives and chief investment officers, run one of the hedge fund industry's largest pools of capital. And a lot of people were assuming that Elliott would be completely destroyed by that saga. In fact, they closed their position. I think Ken Griffin helped out. And they've done well because they've scaled the firm since that saga.
Speaker 1:And a lot of people were like, it's over for them. And that was kind of the way they were depicted in that movie, if I'm not incorrect.
Speaker 2:Elliott didn't buy a bunch of, like, Neo Cloud stocks, like, six weeks ago. They didn't.
Speaker 1:Right? I I I don't know.
Speaker 2:Hopefully not. Because that could be that could be
Speaker 1:Neo Cloud obliteration. In a tough spot. Scenario. Yeah. Obliteration scenario.
Speaker 1:Currently, they wrote they're focused on preserving their capital and being ready to strike if the market runs into turmoil. Over Elliott's five decade existence, fallow periods have existed, but these have historically been accompanied by market turbulence and followed by periods of rare opportunities. Our goal is to be well positioned, protected on the downside and with capital to deploy into the bargains when the tide turns again. In the third quarter, Elliott's unprofitable sectors included distressed debt and portfolio hedges related to gold currencies, stocks and interest rates. Its profitable sectors included commodities, arbitrage and portfolio hedges related to credit.
Speaker 1:The firm sees opportunities in activist investing in health care companies, producing energy opportunities and eventually buying from forced sellers in dislocated credit markets. FOGO, fear of getting obliterated. The actual quote here from the letter, so many factors have lined up to cause this great boom that it might take disruption in only one or two of them to shift this momentum into reverse, leading to a cascading self reinforcing unwind of this bull market and an abrupt change from FOMO to FOGO, fear of getting obliterated. So FOMO drives the market upward. Everyone thinks, ah, I gotta get in.
Speaker 1:I just saw somebody print a three x on NVIDIA, 10 x on Micron. I gotta get in. I don't wanna miss out. Fogo, if everyone's getting blown up, doesn't matter what you're in, you're gonna sell your dollar, sell your gold, sell your crypto, sell everything. That's what they're worried about.
Speaker 1:So some black pilling. Ferrari lifts guidance again on strong demand for car customizations. Fear of missing out is back in force over at Ferrari. The company's order book now reaches into 2028. That's Tesla Roadster competition territory because the Roadster's not shipped until 2028, but some of these Ferrari Taylor Maids are going out to 2028.
Speaker 1:Ferrari again lifted its full year guidance slightly as demand for car customizations remain strong and deliveries of newer models has ramped up in the third quarter. The Italian luxury sports car maker said Tuesday that it expects revenue of around 8,560,000,000 this year, up from a previous estimate of around €7,600,000,000. It forecast adjusted earnings up, to €2,290,000,000. Margins are at 30%. They're going up.
Speaker 1:The company said it was benefiting from stronger personalization than initially expected. Lower currency headwinds and newer, more profitable models, deliveries of our f 80 supercar, and personalizations led by the Ferrari two nine six Speciale family support our robust financial growth. Our order book now reaches into 2028, and we still have two more launches to come. It shipped 3,368 vehicles to customers this quarter, 33 fewer than a year earlier, but I'm sure the average price is up. Anyway, the European Union is downgrading art market money laundering risk despite heists.
Speaker 1:What is going on here?
Speaker 2:They're downgrading it.
Speaker 1:They're downgrade... To downgrade art market Don't worry about it. Money laundering risk despite heists. Okay. So European Commission experts cite limited EU evidence linking high profile museum thefts to criminal networks.
Speaker 1:So they're like one offs? They're just, people taking, their sticky fingers they can't resist? Sticky fingers. That's a great euphemism. The European Commission is planning to downgrade the risk of money laundering and terrorist financing in the art market even as a spate of high profile museum heists across Europe put the spotlight on crime in the sector.
Speaker 1:So few high profile cases, but maybe not systemic. Minutes of a January 2026 meeting, that was a long time ago, show the commission's forthcoming supernational risk assessment will downgrade the threat of money laundering and terrorist financing in the art market and antiques trade from high to moderate compared with its 2022 assessment. I wonder if some of this is just like the crowding out effect from criminals going to to crypto and cyber heists. You know, you see the new obliterated model and you're like, what am I doing planning a heist?
Speaker 2:Why am gonna go spend a bunch of time
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:In museums? When I just fire off
Speaker 1:prompt and Yeah. And clean up on on Binance or something. Who knows? The the the commission's financial market directorate recommended downgrading the risk, setting limited EU evidence linking such thefts to money laundering and to... Or terrorist financing despite acknowledging persistent vulnerabilities due to opacity and anonymity in the sector.
Speaker 1:One art expert said the moderate classification was still too high. So someone in the art market is like, we gotta send this thing to them. It's not risky at all.
Speaker 2:We gotta we gotta investigate that guy.
Speaker 1:Yeah. What is he doing? What is he doing?
Speaker 2:In other news, Tyler, how do you pronounce Y o Y growth? Yeah, YoY growth?
Speaker 1:YoY growth.
Speaker 2:That's right. YoY. Low yield. Lucy says new hire just pronounced year over year growth like YoY. Yoy.
Speaker 2:Which I think we should all adopt. Amazing. Well Thank you so much for coming. Thank gonna close out the show with us. Always five stars.
Speaker 2:Wow. We're we're gonna do something
Speaker 1:Sign up for earnings. That
Speaker 2:you may not have seen. This called The Flash On
Speaker 1:tbpn.com. See you tomorrow.