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In Mizuho | Greenhill’s Beyond The Obvious podcast channel, we uncover the value that others miss.
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00:00:08:08 - 00:00:09:20
Welcome back to M&A Corner.
00:00:10:00 - 00:00:11:16
We have a special edition today
00:00:11:16 - 00:00:14:07
because I have two of my
European colleagues with me.
00:00:14:13 - 00:00:16:15
I have Dean, who heads our London office,
00:00:16:15 - 00:00:19:00
and I have Amélie, who heads our Paris office.
00:00:19:11 - 00:00:24:03
And we thought we could spend today talking a bit about what they're seeing in their local markets
00:00:24:03 - 00:00:27:00
as well as how that fits within the broader
context of M&A globally.
00:00:27:00 - 00:00:27:18
as well as how that fits within the broader
context of M&A globally.
00:00:27:23 - 00:00:28:20
So, welcome both.
00:00:29:09 - 00:00:30:05
Thank you for having us.
00:00:30:14 - 00:00:32:02
Dean, first question is for you.
00:00:32:12 - 00:00:36:07
You've practiced in London, in the U.K.,
the entirety of your career.
00:00:36:12 - 00:00:40:22
It seems like a unique moment politically, economically, in the U.K.
00:00:41:02 - 00:00:43:13
Could you talk a little bit about how that dynamic
00:00:43:13 - 00:00:48:09
is shaping how corporates are thinking about the environment and what they might look to do next?
00:00:49:00 - 00:00:54:00
Yeah, look, I think it's, the U.K.'s been through an interesting decade.
00:00:54:00 - 00:00:57:22
Obviously with the Brexit vote, then
the implementation of all of that,
00:00:57:22 - 00:01:01:20
the outcomes of Covid and everything out the other side of that as well.
00:01:02:07 - 00:01:07:17
I think at this point in time, we have a government that's been in power for a year.
00:01:08:10 - 00:01:12:09
It's going to be three, maybe four years until the next general election.
00:01:12:15 - 00:01:19:11
So while the political side of things is showing polls that are moving in various different directions,
00:01:19:11 - 00:01:22:19
it is actually a reasonable length of time
00:01:22:19 - 00:01:26:19
before there is a natural point for the political landscape to change.
00:01:27:10 - 00:01:30:04
From a broader economic standpoint,
00:01:30:04 - 00:01:35:09
we continue to work through the macro factors, the inflationary pressures,
00:01:35:09 - 00:01:40:06
and the U.K. looking to position itself
as a place of growth.
00:01:40:09 - 00:01:42:03
And that's clearly high on the government agenda.
00:01:42:22 - 00:01:50:01
The focus areas from an M&A standpoint continue to be around things that play to the growth agenda.
00:01:50:01 - 00:01:55:04
Infrastructure, in particular, is a huge area of opportunity, capital investment and M&A.
00:01:55:08 - 00:01:59:07
But from a corporate standpoint, it's very much around looking to position themselves
00:01:59:07 - 00:02:05:09
not just for the U.K., but ultimately in line with U.K. companies over many years.
00:02:05:09 - 00:02:10:21
Very much looking internationally, very much looking at how certain overseas markets
00:02:10:21 - 00:02:14:02
can add to their supply chain resilience,
00:02:14:02 - 00:02:17:19
add to their opportunities to have long-term sustainable growth.
00:02:19:15 - 00:02:23:04
Amélie, same question, but I have to ask first,
00:02:23:04 - 00:02:27:11
what number Prime Minister are we on
over the last two years?
00:02:27:16 - 00:02:30:03
I think we don't count anymore, any longer.
00:02:30:23 - 00:02:38:07
The M&A market in France remains and is still a very attractive and large market.
00:02:38:11 - 00:02:42:09
It's the third market in Europe after
the U.K. and Germany.
00:02:42:21 - 00:02:46:15
And it's a market which is still
very much characterized
00:02:46:15 - 00:02:48:22
by the strengths of their strategic leaders.
00:02:49:08 - 00:02:53:09
And of course, with PE activity, strategic players
00:02:53:09 - 00:03:02:05
have really led the M&A market in 2025, even though it was a period which was slow.
00:03:02:05 - 00:03:04:09
2025 has been a slow year.
00:03:04:14 - 00:03:11:16
When you look at transactions which took place, they have been clearly led by
00:03:11:16 - 00:03:19:18
guys like Sanofi acquiring in the U.S.,
Schneider Electric in India,
00:03:19:18 - 00:03:24:08
Capgemini in India, Air Liquide in South Korea.
00:03:24:20 - 00:03:30:21
It's clearly an M&A market which is led by their strategic players.
00:03:31:05 - 00:03:34:11
It's a very global market in this respect.
00:03:34:18 - 00:03:39:16
So the characteristic of the French market, which is very much geared towards outbound M&A,
00:03:39:16 - 00:03:41:09
is still very prevalent.
00:03:42:01 - 00:03:46:05
What we have on top of that, which you are experiencing in the U.S.,
00:03:46:05 - 00:03:50:02
is what the AI is basically fueling.
00:03:50:02 - 00:03:58:17
So you've got demand increase in electricity, and also in the mere electrification of the industry.
00:03:59:02 - 00:04:00:22
This is driving capital.
00:04:01:12 - 00:04:06:13
This is driving PE investment, pension funds investment into the economy.
00:04:06:20 - 00:04:12:08
And this is creating, basically, a very
interesting theme for M&A.
00:04:12:18 - 00:04:17:06
Amélie, you've talked about investment into other European companies, into Asia.
00:04:17:06 - 00:04:21:15
Can you talk a little bit about the appetite for moving into the U.S., for instance?
00:04:21:15 - 00:04:26:09
The U.S. has been steadily increasing their share of outbound activity.
00:04:26:16 - 00:04:35:15
The largest outbound transaction in France in 2025 was Sanofi investing in the U.S. in Blueprint.
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Clearly the U.S. is still, if you look at
the last three years,
00:04:39:17 - 00:04:47:01
the U.S. are probably accounting for the largest share of FDI and M&A activity.
00:04:47:14 - 00:04:49:16
And Dean, can you comment on that
00:04:49:16 - 00:04:51:17
particularly the interest in the U.S.
00:04:51:19 - 00:04:54:06
from the folks in the U.K.?
00:04:54:06 - 00:04:57:10
Yeah, so as you note, FTSE 100 companies,
00:04:57:15 - 00:04:58:17
the U.K. companies in general
00:04:58:17 - 00:05:00:15
have tended to look internationally,
00:05:00:21 - 00:05:04:06
and the U.S. has always been
a natural target market,
00:05:04:11 - 00:05:07:08
not just because of certain similarities,
00:05:08:04 - 00:05:11:19
but ultimately the growth opportunity
and all of the attractions
00:05:11:19 - 00:05:13:14
that come from a valuation standpoint
00:05:13:14 - 00:05:16:15
from increasing exposure to the U.S.
00:05:17:03 - 00:05:18:06
That hasn't changed.
00:05:18:06 - 00:05:23:20
It's fair to say that there is more boardroom thought
00:05:23:20 - 00:05:28:17
around what is the right opportunity in the U.S. market and what exposures,
00:05:28:17 - 00:05:33:06
for better or for worse, does it provide companies at this particular moment in the cycle.
00:05:33:16 - 00:05:36:21
But the fundamental long-term
attractiveness of the U.S.
00:05:36:21 - 00:05:40:18
to, what are, international companies
absolutely remains.
00:05:41:08 - 00:05:43:11
And maybe you can both comment on this.
00:05:43:11 - 00:05:43:13
And maybe you can both comment on this.
00:05:43:13 - 00:05:47:19
Are there dynamics as it relates to government
and the financial picture in Europe
00:05:47:19 - 00:05:49:22
that might influence deal activity?
00:05:49:22 - 00:05:52:02
This is really a pan-European theme.
00:05:52:02 - 00:05:57:06
Across Europe, budgetary constraints exist across pretty much every European market.
00:05:57:10 - 00:06:00:15
Every European economy is navigating
them in their own ways.
00:06:01:08 - 00:06:06:14
But a big thematic which is playing to M&A and playing to capital investment is
00:06:06:14 - 00:06:08:10
infrastructure financing
00:06:08:10 - 00:06:11:10
through all sorts of different transaction structures
00:06:11:10 - 00:06:14:21
and different ways in which they're
being implemented.
00:06:14:21 - 00:06:20:00
But I think governments across Europe realizing that external and private capital
00:06:20:00 - 00:06:22:12
has a really important role to play
00:06:22:12 - 00:06:28:05
in order to move each market forwards in its own specific strategic areas,
00:06:28:05 - 00:06:33:03
but also to do that whilst balancing public finances that are challenging across the continent.
00:06:33:23 - 00:06:35:15
In France, are you seeing a similar dynamic?
00:06:35:23 - 00:06:39:20
We do, we are seeing a similar dynamic in France
00:06:39:20 - 00:06:48:15
with state-owned enterprise being challenged and which will participate to the same trend.
00:06:48:23 - 00:06:52:04
Historically, there's been a bit of
a multiple differential
00:06:52:04 - 00:06:55:19
between European publicly traded companies and those in America.
00:06:56:00 - 00:06:59:05
In other words, that the American
companies tend to be valued
00:06:59:05 - 00:07:02:12
at a slightly higher level than
their European counterparts.
00:07:03:06 - 00:07:06:17
As a result, there are opportunities
for U.S. companies
00:07:06:17 - 00:07:09:20
to invest abroad, including into your markets.
00:07:09:21 - 00:07:12:20
If you were speaking to a U.S. corporate client
00:07:12:20 - 00:07:16:05
about investing either in the U.K. or in France,
00:07:16:05 - 00:07:20:14
what would you tell them about how to approach
an opportunity in your market?
00:07:20:17 - 00:07:25:21
What would be the right way to try to unlock an opportunity in the most efficient fashion?
00:07:25:21 - 00:07:30:22
So maybe picking it up from a U.K. standpoint, there's obviously an important difference between
00:07:30:22 - 00:07:34:22
public company targets in the U.K.
versus private assets.
00:07:34:22 - 00:07:38:17
The public company regime in the U.K. has the U.K. Takeover Code,
00:07:38:17 - 00:07:39:22
it has a whole host of—
00:07:39:22 - 00:07:40:05
Very strange rules.
00:07:40:05 - 00:07:41:19
Very strange rules.
00:07:41:19 - 00:07:46:20
Very important rules that are very well practiced and very well understood by the marketplace.
00:07:46:20 - 00:07:49:23
My unsurprising piece of advice would
be to take very good advice
00:07:49:23 - 00:07:54:15
from well-established financial
advisors in the market
00:07:54:15 - 00:07:59:11
to ensure you're navigating that to your advantage, but also to ensure you don't trip up.
00:07:59:11 - 00:08:02:06
Ultimately, it's got to start with
the strategic rationale.
00:08:02:06 - 00:08:08:20
Like any transaction, it makes a lot more sense to be turning up to a target Board,
00:08:08:20 - 00:08:13:16
to a target Chair or a target CEO with a
proposition that first and foremost
00:08:13:16 - 00:08:16:05
makes sense from a strategic logic standpoint.
00:08:16:05 - 00:08:19:20
Then clearly it's all about the price being right
and it being deliverable.
00:08:19:20 - 00:08:20:00
I think the deliverability piece is a really key factor
00:08:20:00 - 00:08:23:10
I think the deliverability piece is a really key factor
00:08:23:10 - 00:08:29:04
that's perhaps underappreciated when people
start off on a journey.
00:08:29:10 - 00:08:33:15
It is immensely important if we are advising a U.K. public company
00:08:33:15 - 00:08:38:22
in receipt of an approach that we have a really clear degree of confidence
00:08:38:22 - 00:08:42:06
around how that deal is going to get done
from a financing standpoint,
00:08:42:06 - 00:08:47:06
but also around all of the broader regulatory and other approvals that obviously,
00:08:47:06 - 00:08:50:17
like here in the U.S., are becoming more complex and multifaceted.
00:08:50:17 - 00:08:54:06
And in France, are bids from
overseas companies generally
00:08:54:06 - 00:08:57:21
welcome or is it a difficult terrain to navigate?
00:08:58:19 - 00:09:06:18
The general geopolitical issues have been extremely important
00:09:06:18 - 00:09:16:15
when it comes to tackling M&A in France, not only in mere defense area, but also in any sector.
00:09:17:03 - 00:09:21:05
Basically, you need to be accompanied in order to
00:09:21:05 - 00:09:27:14
get the right approval and to navigate
the overall environment.
00:09:28:11 - 00:09:29:18
Sounds very French.
00:09:29:18 - 00:09:39:12
It is actually very French, but it is, inbound M&A is very active in France.
00:09:40:00 - 00:09:43:04
When you invest in a French company,
you very often
00:09:43:04 - 00:09:46:06
invest in a company which is very international.
00:09:46:20 - 00:09:49:23
If you take, for instance, the Opella
00:09:49:23 - 00:09:53:12
divestment from Sanofi last year,
00:09:53:12 - 00:09:56:22
the majority of the business was outside France.
00:09:57:20 - 00:10:00:08
It did trigger scrutiny
00:10:00:08 - 00:10:02:09
on behalf of the government.
00:10:02:10 - 00:10:05:18
In reality, when you are properly accompanied
00:10:05:18 - 00:10:13:04
and properly advised, an acquirer would
be able to cross the finish line.
00:10:13:10 - 00:10:15:02
We've talked a lot about corporates.
00:10:15:14 - 00:10:19:16
We haven't yet talked about private equity sponsor activity in your respective markets.
00:10:19:19 - 00:10:22:22
Obviously, it's a very large part of
the U.S. deal economy.
00:10:23:09 - 00:10:26:05
Can you talk a little bit about
the importance, relatively,
00:10:26:05 - 00:10:28:07
in your markets of the private equity community
00:10:28:07 - 00:10:31:20
and how they're approaching the current
situation as it stands?
00:10:32:13 - 00:10:36:21
So look, I think from a U.K. standpoint, it would be very similar to the U.S.
00:10:36:21 - 00:10:41:07
Private equity is an enormous part of
the M&A landscape.
00:10:42:04 - 00:10:47:07
It's very much the same international funds that are over here that are also present in London.
00:10:47:21 - 00:10:49:18
There's obviously a number of European funds
00:10:49:18 - 00:10:53:18
that are based in various parts of Europe that will have a strong presence in the U.K. market as well.
00:10:54:17 - 00:11:01:08
And again, picking up on the similar theme, it's not U.K. companies because you're targeting the U.K.
00:11:01:13 - 00:11:03:07
It's U.K. companies that are international.
00:11:03:19 - 00:11:06:21
An awful lot of private equity theses that we've been involved with
00:11:06:21 - 00:11:11:07
are actually taking U.K. companies where the vast majority of their revenue and profit
00:11:11:07 - 00:11:17:00
is overseas and potentially bringing them
back in some different form
00:11:17:00 - 00:11:21:19
where perhaps they relist in the U.S. or reemerge as a U.S. company
00:11:21:19 - 00:11:25:04
because that's where the majority of their revenue and profit actually comes from.
00:11:25:12 - 00:11:28:22
The U.K. is a very open market from a
transactional standpoint.
00:11:29:20 - 00:11:32:05
There has been an increase over recent years
00:11:32:05 - 00:11:34:22
in terms of various governmental
00:11:34:22 - 00:11:38:11
or regulatory approvals for certain
types of transactions,
00:11:38:11 - 00:11:41:00
but it still remains an incredibly open market,
00:11:41:17 - 00:11:44:01
an incredibly deal-friendly market,
00:11:44:05 - 00:11:48:06
and private equity have developed a very strong
00:11:48:06 - 00:11:52:10
and broad-based experience set to
transact in the U.K. market,
00:11:53:01 - 00:11:55:08
which we are seeing across a whole host
00:11:55:08 - 00:11:56:19
of different transactions,
00:11:56:19 - 00:11:59:04
whether that be from the more infrastructure fund
00:11:59:04 - 00:12:02:21
end of the universe, through to more
or less every sector
00:12:02:21 - 00:12:07:01
that has a reasonable ability to sustain leverage
00:12:07:01 - 00:12:08:06
and generate cash flow.
00:12:08:19 - 00:12:09:16
Amélie, similar?
00:12:10:00 - 00:12:12:12
Likewise, absolutely likewise.
00:12:13:04 - 00:12:18:19
You have the large private equity like Brookfield
00:12:18:19 - 00:12:23:03
who have basically been leading
the league tables in France.
00:12:24:03 - 00:12:31:11
Last year, they acquired Neoen,
an independent, an IPP group.
00:12:31:11 - 00:12:36:07
You have also French private equities like Ardian
00:12:36:07 - 00:12:45:09
yesterday announced the acquisition of
the Irish utility Energia.
00:12:45:09 - 00:12:53:16
It's extremely active, extremely diverse across
the large-cap and the mid-cap sectors.
00:12:53:16 - 00:12:58:01
You would basically replicate what you are seeing in the U.K. in France.
00:12:58:20 - 00:13:02:03
And a really important point on this,
00:13:02:03 - 00:13:04:03
which I think is quite different to the U.S.,
00:13:04:03 - 00:13:08:18
is looking at public capital versus private capital as a source of financing.
00:13:08:18 - 00:13:13:18
The IPO market in Europe as a whole
has been pretty low.
00:13:13:18 - 00:13:17:02
London in particular is really struggling
to gain momentum.
00:13:17:08 - 00:13:21:09
We've had a few IPOs in the
last couple of weeks finally,
00:13:21:09 - 00:13:25:17
but it's been a really tough place
to find capital.
00:13:26:13 - 00:13:28:15
But it's not because the capital's not there.
00:13:28:18 - 00:13:32:07
It's because private capital and
private equity is so prevalent.
00:13:32:22 - 00:13:35:02
There's so much liquidity to come from that world
00:13:35:02 - 00:13:38:03
that companies are able to finance themselves without going public.
00:13:38:10 - 00:13:43:03
And I think that's certainly something we observe as different over here,
00:13:43:03 - 00:13:44:18
where IPOs continue to happen.
00:13:45:07 - 00:13:47:22
It continues to be a relatively thriving
public market scene.
00:13:48:13 - 00:13:53:07
I think across Europe, the public markets
haven't quite recovered
00:13:53:07 - 00:13:59:15
where they were five, ten years ago in terms of being the natural, logical place for private equity
00:13:59:15 - 00:14:04:15
to exit or indeed private companies to find liquidity.
00:14:04:22 - 00:14:08:08
As I think you'll both appreciate, there's been a great deal of uncertainty that's
00:14:08:08 - 00:14:14:13
been injected into our economies, more broadly speaking, including the impact of tariffs.
00:14:15:06 - 00:14:20:16
I'm wondering how corporates or sponsors in your market think about that uncertainty
00:14:20:16 - 00:14:24:09
and how they factor that into their approach as it relates to dealmaking.
00:14:25:20 - 00:14:28:15
So maybe in terms of some of the
experiences we've had,
00:14:28:15 - 00:14:33:10
it's interesting because we've often
had black swan events
00:14:33:10 - 00:14:37:08
as part of how you model out your financial plan.
00:14:37:08 - 00:14:40:11
And it's not ever going to be a plain
sailing upward trend.
00:14:40:14 - 00:14:43:18
There'll be bumps along the way
and they'll happen periodically.
00:14:44:06 - 00:14:48:16
The number of conversations we've had recently with people making a very similar observation,
00:14:48:16 - 00:14:54:23
which is we've gone from Covid to geopolitical challenges
00:14:54:23 - 00:14:59:15
and massive inflationary pressures to
tariffs and other issues like that
00:14:59:15 - 00:15:05:11
that are impacting how people see the predictability of their cash flows going forwards.
00:15:06:06 - 00:15:09:08
And they're happening almost year after year after year.
00:15:09:12 - 00:15:12:13
And so it slightly becomes a case of these aren't black swan events.
00:15:12:18 - 00:15:17:05
There's a more baseline level of risk and uncertainty that has to be factored in.
00:15:17:19 - 00:15:22:16
Now, to some extent, this should be and probably is factored into the public market valuations
00:15:22:16 - 00:15:26:21
and investors around the world in every market are
00:15:26:21 - 00:15:29:14
reflecting that in the price on the
screen any given day.
00:15:29:21 - 00:15:33:23
Certainly one of the boardroom-type
conversations we're seeing
00:15:33:23 - 00:15:35:16
is a real focus around capital allocation.
00:15:36:10 - 00:15:39:14
And in a world where you have got greater inflationary pressures
00:15:39:14 - 00:15:43:15
and greater premium on equity, perhaps because of the risk dynamics,
00:15:43:15 - 00:15:48:07
there is that greater focus around share buybacks versus M&A
00:15:48:07 - 00:15:51:23
and the justification of M&A from
a financial standpoint,
00:15:51:23 - 00:15:53:14
from a return standpoint
00:15:53:14 - 00:15:55:12
over and above the strategic rationale.
00:15:56:16 - 00:16:05:08
I would say that at this juncture, in spite of the political uncertainties,
00:16:05:08 - 00:16:12:12
the budgetary uncertainties, French companies, which are very global,
00:16:12:12 - 00:16:19:03
have factored currently in their investment decision,
00:16:19:03 - 00:16:25:08
the uncertainties at a much greater level than
it was six months ago.
00:16:25:11 - 00:16:29:09
I would like to thank both Dean and Amélie for joining me today.
00:16:29:13 - 00:16:33:08
They are partners, but they're also friends, and I hope you've enjoyed our conversation.
00:16:33:12 - 00:16:34:11
Look forward to the next time.
00:16:34:15 - 00:16:35:07
Thank you, Kevin.