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Smart people talking about the theory, analysis, and practice of Canadian politics. Guests include political scientists, pollsters, journalists, and insiders. More thoughtful journalism from Energi Media.
Welcome to episode 2 of the political talks podcast, where we get to the why of political stories. I'm journalist, Markham Hislop. Today, I'll be talking to doctor Lisa Young, political science professor at the University of Calgary and writer of the What Now, an Alberta Politics newsletter about her recent post, the personalization of Alberta party politics. So here's her basic thesis, and I'm quoting, looking at both the Smith government 1 year in and the NDP leadership race, I'm struck by the symmetry on the right and the left. What we see in Alberta is 2 charismatic leaders who have each mobilized their own base of support to capture a party's leadership and then remake that party in their own image, unquote.
Markham:She's talking, of course, about Alberta premier Danielle Smith and new NDP leader, Naheed Nenshi, who recently won with an astonishing 86% of almost 63, 000 votes from party members. I'm really looking forward to this conversation, so welcome to political talks, Lisa.
Lisa:Happy to be here. I feel privileged to be your second guest.
Markham:Oh, yeah. Wow. Well, we'll see how you feel by the end of the podcast. Look. 1 of the things, 1 of the reasons why I started this, other podcast because, of course, we we do we're on, like, episode 331 of energy talks, is because, my social media feeds are full of politics.
Markham:My feeds and my inbox, my my email inbox are full of, substacks like yours or stories. You know? I'm I'm I don't know how many lists I'm on, but it's a lot. And there are so many fascinating and alarming political trends that I just wanted to jump in. I I thought that our approach of interviewing experts like you to get you know, what does the theory say?
Markham:What does the literature say? What does the data say? Which is a very different view than I think you get on most political podcasts, political radio, political TV, in the, in the newspapers, and I I thought that would be a useful contribution.
Lisa:Well, I think that's fantastic. And, you know, as a political scientist, I'm here to help.
Markham:Exactly right. And we that's why we tapped you because you, your your substat came into my inbox yesterday and went, oh, the the personalization of politics. Now that's a new idea, new and analytical framework that I hadn't run across before. Can you maybe just give us a a brief overview of what it means?
Lisa:Sure. And this isn't new new in the sense that, you know, we're not talking about this being new in the last couple of years. I think this is 1 of those trends that has happened slowly over the last number of decades. And we can think about it in terms of party leaders becoming just that much more important inside their parties. And so, you know, in terms of government, it goes along with, what in Canada we talk about as the presidentialization of of politics.
Lisa:So the Prime Minister is so much more powerful relative even to the cabinet, that the government is associated so much with the Prime Minister or in the provinces with the Premier, right? But really what this is saying when we talk about the personalization of politics, it's talking about the relative weakness of party organizations. Those party stalwarts that hold the party together in between elections on the ground, the people who are, you know, the the head of the constituency association or the treasurer and so on. Those party members are so few in number, and party organizations are are really so weak that individuals like Danielle Smith or Nahad Nenshi, who've got a base of support from outside, can sweep into the party and really in just a matter of weeks, make it their own. And, you know, it's a pretty remarkable thing to think that the new leader of the NDP didn't have a party membership back in January.
Lisa:I can't remember when he got it, but he didn't have a membership, you know, within the period. He needed dispensation, is my recollection, to run for the party's leadership. So, you know, that is a really remarkable trend. And to see it in such symmetry in Alberta on on the 2 sides of the political spectrum, I think is really interesting.
Markham:I actually have an anecdote here that I think is useful. And, back in I started my formal journalism career in 1988 in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, which is about, you know, city of 25, 000, 30000 in in the middle of the province. And, it was a daily, and it was actually pretty good paper back in those days. And so it good enough that it survived my presence there for a while. But after I've been there for a while, we had the election, fall of 1988, and Brian Mulroney won another another term.
Markham:But the NDP won, locally, and the the MP came to me and said, Mark, look. I I like your work as a journalist. So would you come, you know, handle my media and research in my office? And I said, yep. Sure.
Markham:I'm young single father. The salary bump. I said, yeah. Sure. I'm happy to do that.
Markham:But what it gave me was an insight into the party machine. And we don't talk about that very much anymore, but I was because this is my first time I'd ever really been involved in politics other than as an observer or a voter and and as a journalist, and I got to see how well organized winning parties are right down at the constituency level. I mean, I often talk about the you know, there's a strong u Ukrainian culture in in that area. And and the the, as we call, they they every polling station, they would come and feed all the volunteers. They they they had this thing this machine so well organized that it was well fed.
Markham:Right? Armies run-in their stomachs? Well, apparently, so do political machines. And and when in 1991, when Roy Romano defeated conservative premier Grant Devine, that I saw the machine in action, and it was awe inspiring. And within 10, 15 years, it was done.
Markham:Yeah. You'd look at Saskatchewan, and the NDP had lost all of that machinery. And and the reform party politics had swept in, and then the the PC party became the Saskatchewan party and which led to Brad Wall and then Scott Moe, and and it was gone. And now I look around, Alberta, for example, and I don't see the same maybe, you know, like, take back Alberta. Maybe some of the UCP writings, maybe.
Markham:But I don't see it at the NDP level nearly as much. And that's gotta play into the ability of somebody like Naheed Nenshi to come in and essentially take over the a party.
Lisa:Absolutely. And and I think in some ways, if we look at what happened to Jason Kenney inside the UCP, it's a really interesting illustration. Right? I mean, here's someone who had pulled together the 2 parties, you know, was trying to build the party on the ground. But at the end of the day, and and I mean, obviously, COVID played a big role in this.
Lisa:But at the end of the day, the the moderates on the ground or the party establishment on the ground in the UCP couldn't mobilize enough to get Kenny over, you know, the 60% threshold that he needed to stay on as party leader, and they couldn't mobilize behind an establishment candidate to overcome that influx from, you know, take back Alberta, people who were angry about COVID, people who were angry about Trudeau. You know, that mobilization into the party that Danielle Smith was able to harness for her own purposes. And and that really does speak in some ways to the weakness of party organization, and it's not unique to Alberta. Right? I mean, think about, the liberal federal Liberals last time they chose a leader, Justin Trudeau, you didn't even have to be a party member to vote.
Lisa:You just needed to say that you were a party supporter. Right? And, you know, that's a real shift in in how party politics is organized in Canada.
Markham:Yeah. I remember, back, when, there was talk Kenny being ousted and then Take Back Alberta suddenly appeared on the the scene, and it's a, supposedly, a grassroots organization run by this He and I have had many run ins on Twitter, so I'm I'm gonna keep my adjectives to AAA minimum here. We'll we'll pretend we'll pretend this is a family oriented pod podcast, and I'll watch my language. But David Parker, you know, it but if he his organization had half the seats at the of the board of directors of the UCP. Extraordinary.
Markham:This is their extraordinary movement. Now I and I should say that in the next election, he took the other half. So the the the the UCP is effectively run by or, you know, the party itself is directed by to take back Alberta, not traditional conservative members. And now I see other organizations like this 1905 committee that is suddenly popping up in my inbox with their with their emails. They're trying to, in some ways, replicate what the take back out take it back Alberta did with different more radical ideas and and some different ideas.
Markham:And is that where we're gonna see AAA big fight over the machinery? Is is behind the scenes between these competing visions, like take back Alberta 1905 committee and who I'm sure there are other secession parties out there.
Lisa:Yeah. And, I mean, say what you will about David Parker's politics. He really did understand the relative weakness of of political party organization. Right? How Right.
Markham:He did. Yes.
Lisa:Permeable and and how open you know? So, you know, in strategic terms, you gotta take your hat off to him. Right?
Markham:That's the 1
Lisa:thing I will acknowledge. Yeah. So, you know, and and now I think we've we've seen, you know, who knows what's going on internally in that organization that it it seems to be coming apart. As, you know, many of these sort of organizations on the right are are prone to do, they get into these personalized fights and so on. And so now we see another group trying to replicate it.
Lisa:I think this, you know, this fight might actually be the opportunity that Smith has to reassert a little bit of control of of the party, you know, the enemy of your enemy and all that. So to the extent that they're caught up in these internal fights, it it might be an opportunity for Smith to try to grab a little closer control of the party. But, you know, certainly, they've they've demonstrated something, that other organizations that have, you know, an issue or a set of issues that they're trying to pursue are certainly gonna emulate. And, you know, we've seen this before, in Canadian politics. Back in the 1980s, it was, pro life groups that were trying to capture party nominations, you know, for both the Liberals and the Conservatives.
Lisa:And the Liberals really fought back on that, by appointing candidates. Right? They would just say, no. You know, this is going on here. They said they were doing it because they wanted to appoint women.
Lisa:They did appoint women, but really, it was fighting off those those pro life organizations. So there's nothing new here except the relative growing weakness perhaps of those parties.
Markham:You point out in your, newsletter that the the the 1 thing that is different here is that now we have 2 charismatic leaders going head to head. That's something you know, we could think back to Eberhard, Manning, Ralph Klein, Peter Lougheed, and they didn't have a charismatic counterpoint that had the same kind of presence and ability to rally people, that they did. And but now we do. I mean, Nohayad Nenshi, I'll I'll tell a little here's a little story about Nohayad Nenshi. So my son-in-law, in his early forties, is a an engineer.
Markham:So tending to be conservative, would not normally be a Nenci supporter, but worked at the city of Calgary when Nenci was mayor there and raves about Nenshi's management abilities. Like, he just is very complimentary about how smart he was, how he knew the issues, how he let his managers manage. You know, he was just really good at that, and he would he would support Nayak Menchie. And and that's unusual, because then on the other side, you've got Daniel Smith who evokes the same kind of loyalty and admiration from, you know, her small c or libertarian, voters. And it'll I don't know.
Markham:Do we need a cage match here?
Lisa:I think that's what we're gonna see for the next 3 and a half years, you know. It really is exceptional. And, you know, the point I was trying to make in the newsletter was that in some ways, Alberta has been out in front of this trend of personalized leaders. There's this populist, dimension to our political culture, that has really lent itself to premiers who have this relationship that's unmediated with, voters. And you you know, you you gave the list of them.
Lisa:And I think Smith is very much trying to establish yourself in that tradition. But having Nenshi there as an alternative leader with that same, you know, a a charismatic appeal, you know, He can talk, and he can connect with people. And, you know, as mayor, he was out there all the time engaging with community and in a sincere way that I think won over people that might not otherwise have have supported, you know, a progressive, political leaders. So I think this makes Alberta politics, which is, you know, fascinating all the time. It it's going to be that much more interesting.
Lisa:And, you know, we saw today, you know, Rick Bell, who, you know, which basically, you know, the the a mouthpiece for the Smith government in in a lot of ways, you know, had the scoop that, and and for people listening, I I there were scare quotes there, scoop, that the UCP is going to spend big money trying to define Nenshi. Right? As a liberal, as someone who wants high taxes and high spending, they want to neutralize this threat right off the bat.
Markham:Speaking of which, now, I'm in a very interesting position here because I have to say, you know, a lot of, the democratic supporters would would be regular, readers and fans of energy media. And so, you know, I hear from them a lot on the, on social media and in emails and and so on. And, shortly after, Nanci was selected, no. We've I can't remember if it was just before or just after. But, anyway, I criticized.
Markham:I said, you know, look. I mean, the other 3 candidates, Jody Stonehouse, Callahoo, and and Sarah Hoffman, and and Kathleen Ganley, all agreed you know, came on and did podcast interviews and were very good. You know, they they really were better than I had thought they would be. They were quite impressive, actually, and and then she declined. And and I'm quite convinced, I'll say it here in this on this podcast, he did it because he knew, that his grasp of energy and climate issues was thin.
Markham:He didn't really have any any energy and climate policy. All you did was look at his website, and it was just embarrassingly thin. And and I would put him through the meat grinder, and they didn't want it was they didn't want him, having that kind of an interview, prior to the vote. They didn't want anybody going, oh, maybe, you know, ouch. I might wanna go some another direction.
Markham:They didn't want that. But, you know, then that's their choice. They don't have to agree, but then they open themselves up to criticism. That's the way this system has has always worked. And then, earlier this week, I wrote another column when I I said, you know, like, there's literally no you couldn't put a slip of paper between Nenshi and and Smith in terms of their energy and climate policies.
Markham:That, you know, I I always criticize Rachel Notley for being UCP light in the last 5 years, not while she was premier, but in the last 5 years. And and then she has picked up right where she left off. So here's where I'm going with this. If I think it's almost axiomatic that if you haven't got decent energy and economic policy, you're gonna have trouble in Calgary. Even though that's his base, that is Calgary is the epicenter of the of the Canadian oil and gas industry and and the power sector.
Markham:And if you can't figure that 1 out, I mean, it hurt not only, I think, like, in the last election, and and I see, Nenshi going down the same road. What might what how might that dynamic play out in 20 in 2027 when we're expecting the next provincial election?
Lisa:Yeah. I'm really interested to see what NINCI does around policy development. And what you've seen you know, the the observation that you just made about his climate and energy policy being thin, I think it's true of policy on virtually everything except some sort of easy to understand issues where he could criticize the the UCP. Right? So, you know, their policy around trans kids.
Lisa:You know, he's it's very clear that he's in opposition to that. But this notion of a policy platform that he would run on or the party would run on in 2027, You know, if you went looking for this, this guy who who prided himself on policy and and, you know, politics in full sentences and so on when he was, a mayoral candidate has run a policy free leadership campaign. And strategically, I think you can see why he would do that because first of all, there's certainly the risk that where he is going to position the party is closer to the center and that that would be unappealing, that it would make it difficult for him to, you know, walk in almost unopposed, it felt like. There there's also, I think, a strategic reason. If you he ran a front runners campaign.
Lisa:He this was his. Why mess it up with a bunch of policy commitments that potentially come back to haunt you? Right? I mean, we always talk about, you know, a a leadership candidate, you know, having to move to the center, you know, from wherever they were when they go from winning the leadership to actually running the election. Well, he just skipped that stage of being further to the left, and then having to move to the center.
Lisa:And because of his remarkable political organization that, you know, brought him to this place, he was able to get away with that. Do I think that Naheed Nenshi is gonna walk into the 20 27 election without policy? No. I don't think so. I think there will be policy.
Lisa:It might not be policy that a lot of progressives love. But the calculation he'll make, I think, is that progressives don't really have anywhere else to go in this election, and they share his desire to beat Smith.
Markham:Now that's essentially the calculation that Notley made in last year. And they were at she and the party ran hard against Smith. And, I have to say, I've known Danielle Smith for a long time now, and I've interviewed her. She's interviewed me. We've been on a moderated panel she was on, and on and on and on.
Markham:And I would have to say that, compared to when she was the wild rose leader, you know, 10, 15 years ago, her communication skills have remarkably, matured. She is very slick at making the irrational seem rational. And she picks up these little, you know, cue words, you know, like hydrogen or or emissions, and and then she weaves them into this bogus kind of narrative that makes it sound like you know, like, you use phrases like, well, no credible forecast, agency is forecasting peak oil demand in 2030. They're all forecasting oil demand and peak oil demand in 2030. You know, the only 1 that isn't is OPEC, you know, for obvious reasons.
Markham:So my question is, does Nayed Menchie run the risk of being too light on policy, too heavy on demonizing, Smith, and then do the have the same identical results that, that Notley achieved in 24?
Lisa:I think it's absolutely a risk. I I don't know that he's going to end up there. Right? He's got 3 years. He has to you know, if we think about what he needs to do over those 3 years, he's got to deal with some internal party stuff, and policy potentially is baggage for him in that at that point.
Lisa:But then he needs to bring the party together and really do the policy work to look like a credible government in waiting. That's gotta be the the second stage. And, you know, so far, I I think anyone who us underestimates his political smarts isn't looking too good right now. I wasn't sure that he had a, you know, the big purple machine to bring him to the leadership, and I was dead wrong about that. So I'm not gonna underestimate him and say that he's gonna make the same mistakes.
Lisa:And, you know, certainly some NDP insiders who I've talked to do suggest that, you know, 1 of the things that comes along with having Nenshi as leader is a shift in the the sort of senior advisers in the party, and moving away from those advisers who who really leaned into the demonizing Smith strategy.
Markham:Yeah. Let's talk about that for a minute because I have heard complaints from a reasonable number of well connected new democrats, who complain about how every election, Rachel Notley would import campaign managers and advisers from Ontario. And and then they would run a campaign that might have been made sense in in Ontario or British Columbia or some other place, but, you know, they would ignore energy. Like, how do how would Yeah. Do you be the Alberta NDP in a provincial election and ignore energy issues?
Markham:That's, but they that's what they would do, and and they did it very deliberately. Very it was a strategic thing. And and I suspect given like, I I covered, Nenshi's first run at at, the mayor's chair in 2010 and got a chance to interview him and spend some time on the the campaign trail. And and I got a chance to to peek into his machine a little bit, you know, and and he has some very capable people that have stuck with him for a long time. The the same folks that were running his campaign then that were then in the mayor's office, in and out of the mayor's office, are now showing up on his NDP campaign.
Markham:So it's very clear he's brought the purple team into the into the orange fold. And and and I think I this is my total guess. I I nobody's even hinted at this, but I would suspect that they that they will be put in senior positions, and they will have the his ear all the time. And the, as you say, some of those previous advisers will be shown the door.
Lisa:Yeah. I I think that's a virtual certainty. And and even in, you know, his press conference, on his first day on the job, he more or less said that, that there were going to be some pretty significant changes inside the party. And, you know, again, this is going back to our theme. This is what you'd expect in a personalized system, right?
Lisa:These people who, you know, also probably didn't have NDP memberships, prior to the leadership race, are gonna come in and take on these these senior adviser roles.
Markham:1 of the things that strikes me about Nenshi, and we saw this in his when he launched his campaign with that video. Do you remember that very slick
Lisa:Yes.
Markham:Very well produced, video? Yeah. And it in like, I don't wanna dunk on on Rachel Knobbe. I've criticized her her her for energy policies, and that's fair game. Especially when she was in government, I praised them because my experts were saying nice things about them.
Markham:It was a very weird thing for me to go, well, those were all great policies, and now we're not gonna talk about them after 19 2019? That's oh, okay. Well, that's what we're gonna do then. So but she is a very was very confident. She ran her the the party in a in a way that her predecessors, had not, and lots of discipline, and and it was very well run.
Markham:But I he the reason I brought up his video is because he is able to make an emotional connection that I never saw Rachel Notley make. And I I'm not I'm an outsider. I'm a journalist. I'm watching her at rallies, and I'm watching her at press conferences and things. And he can he can reach out and tug your heartstrings in a way Smith can do that.
Lisa:Yep.
Markham:Yeah. The 2 of them can run very emotive campaigns, and it and that makes the the 27 election look very different than 24.
Lisa:Yeah. Absolutely. It it's, you know, it they are both such big personalities in some ways and such fantastic communicators. And they're gonna have 3 years to, you know, settle into their their interactions with each other, and it's gonna be something to watch. You know, and I I mean, if we think back to the debate in the 2023 election, I was really struck by the extent to which Rachel Notley almost felt like the incumbent that she was being held, you know, feet to the fire for things that she had done when she was in government.
Lisa:And Smith got a completely free pass on Kenny's time in government. And I don't think that we're gonna see that dynamic come 2027. You know, Nenshi, you know, can you yell at him about things he did as mayor of Calgary? Well, you know, maybe, but it's not gonna resonate in the same way. And Smith is going to have to carry 8 years of UCP incumbency.
Lisa:And so that's gonna change the dynamic in interesting ways.
Markham:Yeah. Well, my I should say now my apologies. I just realized I've been talking about the 24 election, and I really meant 2023. So listeners, if if alert listeners who caught that, my apologies. But there's 1 other thing I wanna talk about, and this gets back to you know, we talked about, the supporters behind the scenes in the party, and in tight back Alberta for, Smith.
Markham:What does Nenshi do with the caucus? Because, you know, a lot of those people in the caucus are traditional new democrats. They you know, a lot of people like Janice Irwin very into health and and social issues, education issues. Those are, you know, traditional strengths of the of the NDP. And but there is also a younger generation of, I would say, people who you know, somebody I know would be, Najwan Elganid, who's worked on energy.
Markham:She's in the Calgary MLA. I don't see her as being as ideological as some of the older MLAs. And there are there are others like her in the caucus. And I wonder if that doesn't work to Nenchi's advantage when he has to come and and grab look who he appointed as deputy leader, Raki Pertrachi, Patchouli. You know?
Markham:So, anyway, what your take on on his handling of the NDP caucus?
Lisa:Yeah. I I think that caucus management is going to be the biggest challenge for Nenshi in the first year or so. Any outsider coming in faces these sorts of of challenges. You know, there's kind of a sense of, like, you know, you've never set foot in the legislature, and you're telling us how to run question period. You're telling us how to organize the party.
Lisa:You've never been a party member. Right? And so the there's inevitably gonna be tensions there. And the fine line that he has to walk is on the 1 hand, you know, this is his party now. He is the leader.
Lisa:This is, you know, he's got an overwhelming mandate. And and so he he has to impose his vision, in in many respects while being attentive and respectful to the experience of those people in in in caucus. And, you know, there's an interesting dynamic here. So many of those sort of NDP stalwarts are women, and, you know, the the the there's a gender dynamic, you know, he can't come in and be mansplaining politics to these established, MLAs. Right?
Markham:And it's No. He can't.
Lisa:It's a risk. And, you know, and and it's just gonna be so hard and so delicate.
Markham:And I wonder if there aren't some observations we can make based on here, the years that he was the mayor in Calgary and he had to work with councils. Because those weren't always smooth and and there were, you know, there are always in Calgary. There are go there you know, they tend to to elect progressive mayors, and then they somehow they split the council. There's progressives and there's conservatives. And he wrangled with the conservatives all the time.
Markham:And he even got into trouble once in a while with his, you know, more progressive, counselors who would normally support him. So I wouldn't say that Naheed Mengshi, based on that, is I wouldn't expect a totally smooth management of caucus, based on that. Though I I hear other stories about how, you know, that he is good behind the scenes and he's, you know, finding middle grounds and that sort of thing. What what would be, your observation?
Lisa:Yeah. I mean, I think that the the first thing is to say that this is a challenging situation for anyone. Right? You know? Full stop.
Lisa:You know, does he have some, you know, capacities that might make it more difficult? Sure. He's a smart guy, he likes to be right, that's, you know, that's that's gonna be a challenge. On the other hand, he does have a real talent for making connections with people and, you know, making some surprising alliances. Alliances, right?
Lisa:And I'm I'm thinking about his, you know, close friendship with Jeremy Farkas, you know, who ideologically he doesn't have much in common with. So he's got that, you know, he's he's got some real strengths to bring to this as well. The other thing that I think we've seen from him in this leadership race is an awareness of his weaknesses. Right? And and he's done a pretty good job, I think, of sort of naming them, using some self deprecating humor to deal with them.
Lisa:It really does speak to sort of a a mature level of self awareness. And if he can hang on to that under in this pressure cooker, I think it will stand him in in good stead. Right? To know that, you know, you know, when he was first elected, he he got up to make his speech and he said, you you wanna sit down. This isn't gonna be short.
Lisa:Right? So he's poking fun at his own, propensity to talk. And the more that he can hang on to that, it makes him human. It it papers over some stuff, I think. And it, you know so I think he's off to a good start on this front, and, you know, I I would assume that this is gonna be his focus for the next year or so.
Markham:Yeah. I I would I would think that the, the NDP are basically gonna hang on to Edmonton. Right? I mean, I don't think under Nenshi that that many of those seats will be much threatened unless something comes out of right field, maybe, as as a threat. But the the, where he might really shine is in Calgary.
Markham:And you alluded to earlier, you you mentioned, you know, like, he shows up. Like, I can't remember how many times you know, I'm connected with him on on, face on on, Twitter. And and there would be, you know, at the the local some theater. Yeah. Watching a play or watching a concert or going to an opening or I mean, the man was everywhere.
Lisa:Yep.
Markham:And and he's very charming. And when he wants to be, you know, he can really turn it on. And and I think that, if he can make big inroads in Calgary, the NDP hang on to Edmonton, and all they have to do is hang on to their, you know, like, the west left bridge and and a few other, seats outside of the 2 big cities, suddenly, he's that's a very challenging campaign.
Lisa:Yeah. Oh, absolutely. I mean, we saw how very close it was. And, you know, when we think about how close 2023 was, 2027, if you've got 2 strong parties going head to head, you know, you start thinking about some of the the changes to the population. Right?
Lisa:I mean, the population of Alberta is growing rapidly within migration both, you know, from elsewhere in Canada but from the rest of the world. Now obviously those are voters right away but, you know, increasingly diverse cities. Nenshi has real authentic ties into various communities. You know? III think that there are paths to increase the number of seats, in Calgary potentially, and that could be just enough to squeak out a victory, but it all depends.
Lisa:Right? You know, it it could also all come apart, in in all sorts of ways. And, you know, Alberta's propensity to be Alberta is should not be underestimated. Right? If oil prices are high and people are feeling prosperous and Smith, you know, is is able to define Nenshi as being just a federal liberal, it it might not be so positive.
Lisa:Right? It's not a sure thing.
Markham:This, Alberta politics right now reminds me of the 2024 baseball season. You know? Smith and the UCP are kinda like the Yankees. You know? They're gonna win more often than not than and lead the, and and lead the division.
Markham:And and then there's the, the poor hapless, Blue Jays who, when they broke, spring training, had a strategy, had a plan, thought they had the bodies in place to execute the plan. They didn't execute. And and and I think that is the the question that we should be or the thing that we should be watching Nancy over the next 3 years is can he execute himself, and can he turn his party around so that it executes on whatever political strategy and campaign strategy is finally decided upon? I think it's fair to say, that, Rachel Notley and her advisers did not execute or not execute as well, as much as they needed to win. And can, Nenshi take it to another level where they execute, well enough to win?
Lisa:Yeah. And I think we have to understand as well that, you know, the UCP is already gearing up for a fight. And being in government, it gives them all kinds of advantages. We can think about all of the, government advertising about affordability going into the 2023 election. They're not, shy about using those kinds of advantages.
Lisa:If they bring in the kinds of, political finance laws that they brought in for municipalities, which I think is, you know, a good likelihood, it means that they are going to be able to raise money from corporations in a way that, the NDP won't be able to match with money from unions just because of the way that it's it's set up. And so, you know, the the financial advantage of the UCP is gonna be hard to counter. So, you know, Nenshi has been talking all through the leadership race about building a movement, but turning that into, you know, something established that, you know, becomes party on the ground that generates the kinds of funds that that he's gonna need is really a daunting organizational challenge.
Markham:Yeah. I have argued in in column after column that, when it comes to energy in energy policy, that Danielle Smith strategy here is essentially, because she's bought into OPEC's slow energy transition narrative. So that means, actual oil significant oil growth out to 2045, then a long plateau, and then a gradual decline. I mean, that's, you know, for the oil industry, that's decades decades of profitability. And on the power sector, she's fulminated against renewables and other, you know, that that according to the grid planners that I'm talking to, you know, introduces unreliability and and that all has to do with the frequency of the grid, because when you have wind and solar intermittent resources.
Markham:My point here is that Xi has pledged to defend the incumbents in the dominant industries in Alberta. And she's done it by by fighting, back against all the climate and energy policies that are coming out of Ottawa, and she's done it, I would argue, pretty successfully. I mean, there's, you know, not many of those have been enacted, and many of them most of them have been delayed far longer than than Justin Trudeau would've would've liked. And and she'll continue to do that, and that then will be her argument for for asking the incumbents to fill the war chest.
Lisa:Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. And and, you know, they will absolutely do that. You know, she is a reliable ally to the industry.
Lisa:Why would they want anything else?
Markham:Yeah. Reliable ally. That's that's I I don't know if you're if you're, that's a euphemism or like, Lisa, this has been very, very interesting because I think what we've what you've done here with the personalization of Alberta party politics is provide an analytical framework that makes sense, and it and it gives us a framework in which we can we can analyze or we can think about, both party leaders going forward. How do they manage their own personal brand, and how does that relate to the party brand, and how you know, Smith is already what more we're well established in that, and so we're gonna be watching Nenshi to see how he handles that. But if it's handled both well, so if Nenshi executes as we as we flagged earlier, then really what you're setting up and for what's being set up in 2027 is a clash of the titans.
Lisa:Absolutely.
Markham:And we will watch that with great interest. Will we not?
Lisa:We will.
Markham:Well, thank you very much for this, and, we're gonna be checking in with you regularly because, there are going to be all sorts of ongoing stories that flow out of the basic analytical framework that you laid out in your post.
Lisa:We can count on that from Alberta.
Markham:Thank you very much, Lisa.
Lisa:Thank you.