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Are you a highway user who wants to travel on safe, less congested roads?
Join Andrew Stasiowski, President and CEO of the American Highway Users Alliance, as he speaks with leading experts about the latest policies impacting the transportation community. Each month, Andrew will cover topics of critical importance to the highway user community, from reducing congestion on roads, to reforming highway trust funds, to increasing global competitiveness.
Listen to new episodes of “Driving Forward” wherever you get your podcasts.
The American Highway Users Alliance is a nonprofit organization advocating for public policies that promote roadway safety, increase freedom of movement, and preserve opportunities for all people to live, work, shop, and travel unencumbered.
To learn more about AHUA, you can visit our website.
Andrew Stasiowski (00:06):
Happy New Year's, and welcome to the January episode of the Driving Forward Podcast. I'm your host, Andrew Stasiowski of the American Highway Users Alliance. We have a fun interview for you today, but first here is your Washington update.
(00:22):
On the day before Thanksgiving, the Federal Highway Administration released its final rule on greenhouse gas performance measurements on the National Highway System. The rule imposes measurement, targeting, and reporting requirements on states with the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, specifically CO2 tailpipe emissions.
(00:42):
As previously discussed, the final rule requires states to set declining emissions targets from the transportation sector. However, those targets are no longer required to meet the Biden administration's net-zero goals. In response to the final rule being published, 22 State Attorney Generals filed a legal challenge to the Federal Highway administration's greenhouse gas performance measurement rule.
(01:02):
While 21 states filed in Kentucky, the Texas Attorney General filed his own challenge to the DOT in Texas. Both suits challenged the Federal Highway Administration's authority to implement this rule without prior congressional authorization.
(01:15):
As you'll recall, Congress debated and rejected this measure during the negotiation for the Infrastructure Investment in Jobs Act. The highway users anticipate that this will be a long process, and we will continue to monitor the challenge as it enters the trial core phase.
(01:29):
Additionally, prior to the new year, the Federal Highway Administration released its long anticipated 11th edition of the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control devices. The update is over 1,100 pages long, and the Highway Users continue to evaluate the latest edition and we will provide our members with further updates.
(01:49):
Today we have a really fun topic to discuss, as we are going to look into the future of driving to learn about connected and autonomous vehicles. Joining us today is Hilary Cain. Hillary is the Senior Vice President of policy at the Alliance for Automotive Innovation. Hillary, welcome to the Driving Forward Podcast.
Hilary Cain (02:06):
Thank you for having me, Andrew. Looking forward to our conversation.
Andrew Stasiowski (02:10):
Absolutely. It should be a fun one.
(02:11):
So I think one of the things we'd like to do on the Driving Forward Podcast is, when we start with a topic, really kind of broaden the scope of what we want to talk about, and give kind of an overview of the issue. So autonomous connected vehicles, it's a pretty broad topic. Can you just kind of explain a little bit about what an autonomous vehicle is, and what that could mean for the driving public?
Hilary Cain (02:37):
Yeah, sure, absolutely. Thank you. So when we're talking about autonomous vehicles, we are essentially talking about vehicles that can drive themselves. There are obviously a lot of automated features, increasingly automated features that are available in vehicles today to help support drivers, and that is not what we are talking about. We are talking about here is vehicles where you can just sit back and ride essentially, and not be responsible for doing any of the driving itself.
Andrew Stasiowski (03:08):
Right. And I think what that can mean for the public, I think from safety and from efficiency, is pretty incredible. But there's a lot of things that are going to need to be done in order to get there.
(03:22):
So what are some of the steps, whether it's investment in the infrastructure or technological advances that need to be made, to kind of start moving that ball forward?
Hilary Cain (03:33):
So first of all, I want to pull a thread that you just threw out there about all of the benefits. I mean, you're a hundred percent right. We've obviously got a traffic fatality crisis in the United States right now, with far too many people that are injured and dying in car crashes every day. And certainly, this technology has a tremendous opportunity to reduce those fatalities in a really, really meaningful way.
(03:59):
We've also, just as I'll add a note here, that we've also got, you mentioned efficiency. There's certainly access opportunities here. There are a lot of people in this country who cannot drive for one reason or another. They're either, have some sort of a disability or they're in advanced age. And the opportunity this technology has to provide access to mobility to those sorts of people is pretty profound.
(04:24):
So what needs to happen? It's pretty remarkable how far we have come in such a short period of time, in terms of the technology itself. I would say we're just about there. The companies that are working on this technology are just about in a place, from a technological perspective, to be able to bring this technology at-scale to consumers in the US.
(04:52):
The biggest challenge we have, I think, is twofold. One is on the regulatory side, that there is a lot of ambiguity, I would, say about what the rules of the road are that governs this technology. If the technology can be deployed at scale. So a lot of work that needs to be done on the policy and regulatory side.
(05:15):
And then you bring up infrastructure. What we have said, and what developers have said, is they are building this technology with the assumption that no infrastructure changes will be made. Partly because they're not certain that those infrastructure improvements can be made, and so they're assuming that they won't be there. But that isn't to say that if they were there, it wouldn't make this technology work even better.
(05:41):
So there are certainly some infrastructure, and we can dig into it a bit more, some infrastructure improvements that could support this technology making its way onto the US roads more expeditiously.
Andrew Stasiowski (05:54):
So I think when we talk about connected, I mean obviously everyone knows what the internet is, everyone understands how wireless connections work and all that. But how are the vehicles going to connect, and how do they connect to the infrastructure itself? Is it just a simple, protected wireless network, or is it something a little more advanced, I guess is the best way to put it?
Hilary Cain (06:17):
Yeah, so we were just talking about autonomous technology. Now we're flipping to connect, and there's definitely some synergies there. Because I think connected technology can help support autonomous technology. But you're right, when we talk about connected vehicle technology, we're kind of talking about a couple of different things.
(06:34):
One is the ability of vehicles to communicate directly with other vehicles, and for vehicles to communicate directly with infrastructure. And when I say directly, I'm talking about directly. Not going through any cell tower, or through any sort of cellular network, but being able to share messages directly on a sort of short-range basis between these things.
(06:56):
And one of the strongest opportunities there is with crash avoidance, and collision avoidance. And being able to get messages sent directly, for example, from traffic signals to vehicles to help avoid folks running through red lights, for example.
(07:12):
There's also connected vehicle technology that does go through cellular networks, and provides maybe important safety warnings or alerts that maybe aren't as imminent, meaning you don't need to get the information in a matter of milliseconds, but maybe you've got a couple of seconds. And those could potentially go through cellular networks.
(07:37):
One of the challenges we have on that direct vehicle-to-vehicle, and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication opportunity that we were talking about at the top is around the infrastructure.
(07:50):
The idea that you need to have infrastructure that's capable of sharing messages, communicating messages to vehicles, is something that requires a modernization that isn't ubiquitous at this point. Is well underway, but there's a lot of opportunity and a lot of work to build out that sort of digital capability into our existing infrastructure.
Andrew Stasiowski (08:14):
So I think the way I understand it, and I think you were touching on it a bit, is, vehicles are going to talk to each other.
(08:19):
So is it the idea that you'll just type in where you're going, let's say you're going to your office. And then all the other vehicles that are in the area on the road, they all have their own similar idea of where they're going. So the vehicles are talking to each other, and maneuvering along the road so that everyone can maintain their speed and get to where they want to go safely. Is that kind of the idea?
Hilary Cain (08:45):
So that would be sort of the nirvana, right? Combining the autonomous technology with the connected technology, and that would be that, that would be what you're talking about, the ability to do that.
(08:57):
I would say that the most immediate, I think, opportunity for the connected vehicle, that direct connected vehicle technology, like I said, is in the area of crash-avoidance and collision avoidance. And let me give you an example.
(09:10):
Right now, our crash avoidance systems on vehicles are largely reliant on sensors, right? There's cameras, there's radars, increasingly there is what are known as LIDAR sensors. And those are the eyes of the vehicle. The vehicles are seeing what's around them based on these sensors.
(09:30):
Well, those sensors have some inherent limitations. Those sensors can't see around corners. Those sensors largely can't see through things. So if there's heavy rain, or heavy fog, sometimes those sensors are limited.
(09:46):
So one opportunity is for vehicle-to-vehicle communication to basically be a communications-based sensor. And another set of eyes on these vehicles that can help address some of those inherent limitations in the sensor-based technology that our collision avoidance systems currently rely on.
Andrew Stasiowski (10:08):
Okay. Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, you definitely need to be able to see around. I mean, around a corner or there's a big truck in front of you.
(10:17):
As this technology is developing, and there's a lot of future things that can come from this, whether it's, as you talked about, more mobility. What are some of the things that we can do in the next couple of years to really help this technology along?
Hilary Cain (10:33):
So from an infrastructure perspective, we were talking a few moments ago about some of the infrastructure opportunities. And again, it's not like you can't have autonomous technology, for example, without these infrastructure improvements. But there are infrastructure improvements that could be helpful.
(10:48):
And those would be things like consistent signage, having signs look the same no matter where you are in the United States. Maintained lane markings, right? The white lines and the yellow lines on the roads are things that these vehicles are relying on. And so if they are not maintained or difficult to see, the vehicles may have some challenges.
(11:15):
What I will say, which is interesting, is there's been an effort underway for a number of years to update the MUTDC, the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices, to include some of these sorts of infrastructure considerations that could help advance autonomous vehicle technology.
(11:34):
And we've been asking for this for a while, and the Federal Highway Administration just released recently, their latest version, I think it's the 11th edition, the MUTCD, and we were so pleased to see that they did include an entire chapter on infrastructure opportunities to help advance autonomous vehicle technology.
(11:55):
And so we would encourage, I think, states and local governments to be looking to that now as a guide for the sorts of things that they could be doing to help make their communities more conducive to this technology going forward.
(12:10):
And I will also say that we think that there's an opportunity for the federal government to provide some incentives and some additional resources to state and local governments who are interested in building out their infrastructure in alignment with these new infrastructure elements in the MUTCD.
Andrew Stasiowski (12:26):
Yeah, and I think one of the things that we've been talking about, The Highway Users, and we've mentioned on a few of our other podcasts is, we have an opportunity to really build out a national strategy for our infrastructure.
(12:39):
And competitiveness, both for economically and for the ability for people to get to their job or school or wherever safely every day, is a big potential that we see in our next couple of highway bills.
(12:55):
So this seems like a perfect opportunity for us to really be investing in these things, you mentioned lane stripings or consistent signage. Where is the technology in terms of, if we can get this infrastructure updates made, how fast will it take for the technology to kind of adapt to it?
Hilary Cain (13:16):
I don't think very long. We're just about there, like I was saying earlier, on both connected and autonomous vehicle technology. And so I think this is not an example of if you build it, they will come. It's, they're coming anyway, but if you build it, you can help accelerate it to some degree.
(13:33):
I will say to your point on the national strategy, one thing that has been very useful on the connected vehicle side is that the US Department of Transportation is in the process of finalizing a V to X deployment plan, a national strategy for V to X. Now, V to X is, we were talking earlier about vehicle to vehicle, and a vehicle to infrastructure. V to X is sort of a code for vehicle-to-everything.
(14:02):
So V to V, V to I would be part of V to X. And I think that that's a really helpful development on the US Department of Transportation side. And to your point, maybe something that we could consider replicating for broader infrastructure needs. There's certainly pieces of the V to X deployment plan that are infrastructure reliant, and looking to infrastructure owners and operators to build out digital infrastructure that could support this V to X ecosystem going forward.
(14:35):
But these are exactly the sorts of things I think stakeholders are clamoring for; some direction and leadership from the US Department of Transportation to bring our infrastructure into the next generation.
Andrew Stasiowski (14:49):
So let's move it along a little bit. Let's say we get the share moved along. And we've started to see some of these vehicles deployed at more of, I don't know if you'll necessarily get the driverless right away, but let's say we get to the higher levels of connectivity and automation.
(15:08):
How many of these vehicles need to get on the road, as a percentage of the total number of vehicles on the road at least, to where you're seeing some of the benefits of cars being able to talk to each other and increased efficiency and safety?
Hilary Cain (15:22):
Yeah, it's a good question. I don't know that we know the exact answer. I think there is this narrative you hear, that there is some point of, you hit some sort of critical mass point, and then and only then do you see the benefits. And I think that that's not true.
(15:36):
I think that the benefits are immediate. If you get just a handful of vehicles with the technology, and they come into contact with each other, you're going to see potential safety benefits immediately for those few vehicles that have the technology.
(15:51):
Certainly with autonomous vehicle technology, since there is not necessarily in all cases communication or interdependencies between different vehicles with that technology, you could have just a single autonomous vehicle that could potentially improve safety for the users of that autonomous vehicle, and for any road user that comes into contact with that autonomous vehicle, just because of their ability to handle potential crash scenarios more efficiently and effectively.
Andrew Stasiowski (16:20):
Yeah, and I think in DC occasionally you'll see testing an autonomous vehicle. How much testing is going on right now? Is it everywhere, or is it kind of more specific locations like Phoenix or San Francisco?
Hilary Cain (16:33):
Yeah, there's certainly some hotbeds. Tremendous amount of testing going on all across the country. There's certainly some areas where you're seeing a bit more of this work than other parts of the country. You're certainly right, California has been a hotbed. Arizona and the Phoenix area, Texas has become an area where you're seeing a tremendous amount of testing.
(16:55):
I would also point out though, that we're starting to see testing pop up in newer areas, and I think that that's just an example or just an indication of how the technology is progressing, and how further along we are than we were just a handful of years ago. That folks are taking the technology into parts of the country maybe that have more challenging weather situations, or different traffic patterns or norms. We would expect to see more of that over time.
(17:23):
I will also add though, that your question was about testing. And what's exciting, I think for all of us, is that we're starting to see a transition from testing to actually commercialization. There are now autonomous trucks that are transporting goods for profit. And there are, in different parts of the country, San Francisco and Arizona, that you can actually, as a ride-share user, summon an autonomous vehicle to come pick you up on the Uber or Lyft platform.
(17:55):
So we are starting to see, I think very excitingly, this technology transition from testing to commercialization as we speak.
Andrew Stasiowski (18:04):
I would assume with the cost to acquire this technology, it would make a lot more sense in the commercial space, whether it's like you said, an Uber or a Lyft. Or you could DoorDash a pizza from Domino's, I guess, with an autonomous vehicle and just walk out, get your pizza. Is that kind of how you guys see it?
Hilary Cain (18:25):
Yeah, so I think when we're talking about the highest levels of autonomy, so I don't want to get into it in too much detail, but autonomy goes from zero to five. So, one, two, three, four, and five. And three, four, and five are sort of what we were talking about earlier, autonomous vehicle technology, cars that can drive themselves.
(18:45):
What we're talking about, sort of four and five, absolutely. It seems to be sort of shared fleet, shared mobility is sort of where, largely because of cost considerations, we're seeing the technology emerge. Level three though, is a different animal. And the type of autonomous technology that you would have in a personally-owned vehicle that would only be autonomous some of the time.
(19:12):
So let's say in traffic on highways, that you could then activate your autonomous feature to help get you through that traffic jam so you can sort of pay attention to something else while you're stuck in traffic.
(19:27):
That technology is going to be on personally-owned vehicles. It will be on personally owned vehicles very soon. We've already seen some automakers announce plans to bring those types of features to vehicles here in the US in a matter of months.
(19:46):
What I will say though, is what I'm talking about is not something that exists in any vehicle today. So there are some partially-automated driving features that you can get in a vehicle today. That's not what I'm talking about. This is a whole nother level, where you can actually tap out as the driver and not have to pay attention to the roadway while your feature is activated.
Andrew Stasiowski (20:11):
So this is more than just the button you push to help parallel-park your vehicle in some certain areas.
Hilary Cain (20:16):
Exactly. Or some of the, you hear a number of companies, right? A number of auto companies have these lower-level automation features: GM Super Cruise, Ford Blue Cruise, Tesla Autopilot, those are all lower levels of automation. They're automated features. They require a driver to stay engaged in the driving task, to keep their eyes on the road, be prepared to take over at any time.
(20:44):
And that is not what I'm talking about when I'm talking about these new features coming on board. They are features that you don't have to, like I said, maintain any awareness of the roadway, and be able to sit back and relax and enjoy your ride in those sorts of situations.
Andrew Stasiowski (21:02):
So you could just read a book while you're stuck in traffic somewhere.
Hilary Cain (21:06):
They are being designed so you could do things like read a book, yes. Read a book, return your emails, watch a movie. But it's going to be a whole new world. The car will be driving itself.
Andrew Stasiowski (21:18):
That is definitely a new world. So what do you think the timeline is for some of this to really take hold? I know you said some of this will be coming out pretty soon, but how long do you think people are going to be, are you going to be seeing level five across the board in the next 20 years, or what do you think?
Hilary Cain (21:37):
I think 20 years is maybe not an unrealistic expectation. I will say with the level three technologies, the ones we were just mentioning that you could use on highways for example, again, those are coming in a matter of months. So you are just a few weeks away, potentially, from being able to go to an auto dealership and buy a vehicle with that type of a feature on it.
(22:00):
The level four technology, that's largely what we're seeing tested and starting to see commercialized around the country. I think we're going to see that really take a hold over the next decade or so. I think we're going to have human-driven vehicles for a very long time, and there'll be share roadways for quite some time. But over the next 10 years, I think you'll really begin to see that technology begin to deploy at scale.
(22:25):
And then level five technology, that's basically technology that can go anywhere at any time. Yeah, 20, 30 years is probably what we're looking at for something like that.
Andrew Stasiowski (22:35):
It's fascinating. I know I've dealt with this issue at work, and on the policy side, we talked about some of the regulatory stuff. Where's the legislative process on this? I know there've been bills, but do you see any opportunity for Congress to get involved, and really build the framework out for everyone else to work? Or do you think this is going to be more of the regulatory side?
Hilary Cain (22:56):
Yeah, this is one of these issues where I think the industry and stakeholders are clamoring for all of the above. So there are certainly, Congress has a role and should have a role, and the US Department of Transportation has a role and should have a role.
(23:13):
The challenge we are facing is that there are no rules of the road for autonomous vehicle technology right now. And actually, more than there not being rules of the road, there are actual barriers in regulation that are standing in the way of companies scaling this technology up. And specifically I'll mention, when we talk about vehicles that can drive themselves, Andrew, we don't need a steering wheel, or a brake pedal, or things like that that right now are required under federal motor vehicle safety regulation.
(23:50):
And that means that if you wanted to deploy a vehicle in the United States, commercialize a vehicle in the United States without a steering wheel and a brake pedal, you couldn't do it. There's certainly a need to update existing regulations to help accommodate these technologies, and we've been looking to the US Department of Transportation to do that now for far too long. So we're hoping that they will accelerate those efforts here in the near-term and find ways, creative ways in some instances, for companies to be able to move this technology forward without having to waste money on things like steering wheels and brake pedals that aren't necessary.
Andrew Stasiowski (24:31):
I'm sure that's going to be interesting for people when they get into a vehicle, if there's no steering wheel. But I would think given that, especially the steering wheel being gone, there could be some safety benefits to that as well. You can design the car almost even more safely for the passengers in that sense, right?
Hilary Cain (24:49):
Right. It opens up a whole bunch of opportunity, right? To think about how to redesign vehicles to be potentially safer, and also going back to the access to mobility, potentially more user-friendly for people who maybe are in a wheelchair or things like that. Right now, a current vehicle design is not very conducive to people who are reliant on wheelchairs, for example. So a lot of opportunity.
(25:16):
And I'll also say, yes, maybe it'll be unnerving to get into a vehicle without a steering wheel or brake pedal. But I don't know if you've had a chance to drive in an autonomous vehicle today or ride an autonomous vehicle today, but it's also a little bit weird to get in and see a steering wheel that's moving, and there's nobody sitting in the driver's seat.
(25:34):
So I don't know, maybe they're equally unnerving. But it is a little strange to sit there with no one in the seat and see the steering wheel moving.
Andrew Stasiowski (25:41):
Yeah, I had a fun conversation at Thanksgiving. We were out in Arizona, and my kids saw an autonomous car driving around a parking lot. I explained to them what that meant, and it was pretty funny.
(25:52):
Okay. I wanted to go to our last, and this is something we've done on each of our podcasts. Wave your magic wand and institute one policy or just something that you think would be really important to move this technology forward. What would it be?
Hilary Cain (26:07):
It would be the finalization of a pilot demonstration program that the US Department of Transportation has been working on now for about a year, called AV Step. So I was mentioning to you earlier that there are some challenges with getting vehicles out onto the road that are non-conventionally designed.
(26:30):
And one of the things, one of the creative ways that the US Department of Transportation has been looking to enable this type of design, is through this program called AV Step. Which would allow some of these vehicles out on the road under US Department of Transportation Oversight, and allow for them to scale up.
(26:48):
And it's something that they've been working on, now. They announced it last summer, the summer of 2023. And we are all anxiously awaiting a federal register notice and the finalization of that program. So that would be my one thing. Let's get the AV Step program stood up and operational.
Andrew Stasiowski (27:08):
Thank you for joining us. I'd like to thank Hillary once again for an excellent discussion on autonomous and connected vehicles. I hope we all learned a lot. Please continue to subscribe and download the Driving Forward Podcast.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
Voxtopica.