Exploring the frontiers of Technology and AI
Ejaaz:
The very same company that just got hacked by a rogue open AI model just got
Ejaaz:
acquired for $13 billion by none other than NVIDIA.
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Jensen Huang believes so strongly in owning open source models in America and
Ejaaz:
he's made his biggest purchase yet.
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But that's not without cause. NVIDIA just reported their earnings and they had a record quarter.
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They earned almost $100 billion in just three months and the company is growing
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100% year over year. This is unprecedented for the most valuable company in
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the world worth over $5 trillion. And every single bank has raised their price
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targets for the NVIDIA stock.
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But that's not all in this week's roundup. We had a new secret model that revealed
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to be GPU's new GLM 5.3 flash, which competes at the level of Fable and OpenAI
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GPT 5.6, but at a fraction of the cost.
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We've got Leopold updates, unfortunately, of the bad kind, where he's being
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probed by the SEC, where they've subpoenaed a bunch of banks for accusations of insider trading.
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And we finally have an update on robots from the worlds of Waymo,
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autonomous driving, and Tesla. All that and more on this week's Roundup.
Josh:
To start with the NVIDIA quarterly revenue, I want to give you a sense of how
Josh:
outrageous this company is.
Josh:
NVIDIA's quarterly revenue now exceeds the annual revenue of roughly 480 of the S&P 500.
Josh:
That is a crazy statistic, how big it is. NVIDIA is printing about just over
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a billion dollars in cash every single day that it operates.
Josh:
So the day you're listening to this, NVIDIA is printing a billion dollars of
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revenue. And that number is going to go up. They're projecting huge amounts
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of growth over the next quarter.
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And they're guiding now for 70% year-over-year growth in 2028 relative to the
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expectations, which were 44%.
Josh:
So this earnings report was about as good as you can guess.
Josh:
And wall street's kind of rewarding them now i mean the stock is up it was down
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after trading but it is now up seven percent
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early market we're looking on screen now at all of the banks that have changed
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their price target after reading this earnings report pretty much every single
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one of them has raised it significantly higher with the highest being four hundred and twenty dollars
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per share and for like to grow that much as a five trillion dollar company is
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a meaningful amount of revenue and i think this is very high signal that
Josh:
The market's still in a really strong spot. NVIDIA is basically saying like,
Josh:
hey, guys, we know we have a lot of competition. We know everyone's trying to
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build their own thing. In fact, Jensen was on CNBC yesterday and he was asked
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about OpenAI's Jalapeno chip.
Josh:
I don't know if you saw the CJ's. It was very cool because Jalapeno is a really
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great model and they are a really great chip. And they came out and said,
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hey, this is actually more efficient than the NVIDIA chips.
Josh:
And Jensen was like, dude, we're the kings here. We've been doing this for 33
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years. You've been doing this for three months.
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Will talk to you when you've actually produced a chip, when you've put it into
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data centers and when you've scaled this thing.
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He does not seem concerned. The market really liked that. And now it seems like,
Josh:
I mean, NVIDIA is really off to the races and there's no end in sight.
Josh:
Everyone wants the chips.
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They are sold out for as much as they can make them. They're basically operating
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fully at capacity and they have a very clear path to dominating more and more of the industry.
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They're growing bigger by the day. They now are working with five of the largest
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banks in the world to help fund the build out of more data centers using NVIDIA GPUs.
Josh:
And it's this like unbelievable business. The entire world of AI is centered
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around this one company.
Josh:
And the earnings report is saying it's going to be like this for a while.
Josh:
So buckle up because we are up only for the foreseeable future.
Ejaaz:
I just want to show everyone a chart which basically shows NVIDIA's revenue
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breakdown. This is unbelievable.
Ejaaz:
Over the last, you know, a year or so. And it's just absolutely exponential and crazy.
Ejaaz:
Now, I want to give a bit of background as to why this is happening with NVIDIA,
Ejaaz:
especially recently. Why do they continue to earn more money even though everyone's
Ejaaz:
accusing them of, you know, building up this massive bubble?
Ejaaz:
Well, there's a few things that are happening.
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The most obvious one being is they've just raised the prices of all their GPUs by 15%.
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Now, granted, a lot of that is because the cost of memory has absolutely soared.
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So, you know, those memory stocks have also been very volatile recently.
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NVIDIA has to pay the most for memory to build their own GPU.
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So that's a main reason why they're projecting more revenue in the future.
Ejaaz:
That may not necessarily correlate with the profit side of things.
Ejaaz:
The second thing is, you know, your point around jalapeno, which is OpenAI's
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new custom AI chip, which they're building themselves. Typically,
Ejaaz:
they buy from NVIDIA, but now they're building their own selves.
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Some people see this as a potential threat, you know, like Google's TPUs are
Ejaaz:
to NVIDIA's kind of moat.
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And Genset's response is simply, we own the moat for generalized GPUs,
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for generalized AI chips.
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That means any AI lab, whether you are a Neolab, so a smaller AI lab,
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or a large hyperscaler or whether you are anthropic or open AI can use NVIDIA
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GPUs for whatever type of model. And by the way, it's not just LL apps.
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It's financial models. It's fine-tuned models. It's models that can help make
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scientific breakthroughs.
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Jensen owns that entire mode. When you compare it to what OpenAI has built,
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Jalapeno, that's known as an ASIC. It's a very specialized thing.
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They have to prove that out at scale. We haven't even seen these things in operations.
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We're going to see it by the end of the year. So NVIDIA's response to this is
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we still very much control 70% to 85% of the entire market, and we aren't going anywhere.
Ejaaz:
Now, the second bit of news on NVIDIA that I'm most excited about is this acquisition,
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Josh, the $13 billion acquisition of this open source platform called HuggingFace.
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Now, for those of you who don't know, So HuggingFace is basically this platform
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which hosts open source AI models.
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So typically when you are an AI lab, and you can be an AI lab,
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if you launch an open model, you can deposit it or upload it onto the HuggingFace platform.
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It's where everyone goes to check out the latest open source model.
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And you can do a few things when you're on this platform. You can upload your
Ejaaz:
own data sets to fine tune different open models to kind of create your own version.
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A very good example I like to use is Fujipu.
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You know all their GLM models? They have about, I think it's like 10 official
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models, but they're collectively around 155,000 GLM models that exist on Hugging Face.
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And some are financially tuned for financial trading. Some are financially tuned
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for research and all these other different niche use cases.
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And you can go up, sign up on an account and get access to it.
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Now, I ask myself, why on earth is Jensen paying 50X the amount of money that
Ejaaz:
Hugging Face earns to acquire this open source model? Like, doesn't he just
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care about Anthropik and OpenAI? Well, the answer is simple.
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Jensen cares deeply about open source because he believes in a world where it's
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not just going to be Claude or GPT running the world.
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It'll be hundreds and hundreds of very niche and also very broad models that
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run the world. And people can collaboratively use different models at different
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times. Agents run the entire world.
Ejaaz:
Why this is a bull case for NVIDIA and Jensen in particular is.
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Guess what? They all need to run on his GPUs. So he's been investing heavily.
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He invested in Poolside, I believe, last week for $9 billion to acquire 100
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of their employees so that he can build new open models.
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He's investing tens of billions of dollars in Nemotron, which is NVIDIA's own
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open source model, over the next couple of years.
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And now he's made the third and biggest purchase of his entire kind of like
Ejaaz:
focus for open source. So this is a very specific strategy that I think the
Ejaaz:
banks are rewarding. And that's why they're raising their price targets as well.
Josh:
It's amazing to see all these acquisitions happening we have open router now
Josh:
we have hugging face going hugging face is essentially the github for open source
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ai it's where everyone goes to build these things it seems like there's
Josh:
three reasons they would do this and there's three reasons why nvidia has kind
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of been very adamant about moving to open source the first being what we just discussed
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open ai is building their own custom chips google is building their own custom
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chips amazon's building their own custom chips everyone is trying to build
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alternatives to the nvidia gpus it's very difficult to do but they're working
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on it so open source is a hedge in a way against its own best customers where
Josh:
it allows them to find more use cases more
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need and demand for tokens that can be generated in the case that they lose
Josh:
some of that market share to these other large companies the second is like
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open weights seems to very much be where the volume is going we're starting to see the trend
Josh:
Somewhat ossify in the sense that open weights models and open source models
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are producing a lot more tokens because they are cheaper to use they're mostly
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effective enough to get the job done for most people and
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a lot less tokens are going towards frontier intelligence to some extent that
Josh:
frontier intelligence is much higher profit margins it's going to be worth a
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tremendous amount of money for the people that use it
Josh:
but the amount of use cases that require frontier intelligence are going down
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because the quality of the open source models are going up so quickly so therefore
Josh:
um why would you not lean into that and if you are a gpu provider who gets paid
Josh:
per token generated and your performance for what to generate tokens and
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how many tokens you can generate on a like a per second basis open weights is
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definitely where you want to be you want to be able to cater towards the open
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source community that's going to be generating a tremendous amount of this inference
Josh:
and then the final part is just like the moat is continuing to move up the stack so like
Josh:
we have the gpus then nvidia is going to
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kind of optimize these models built for cuda which works by default with their GPUs, and...
Josh:
There will be a one-click deployment onto the nvidia cloud and there's just
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this huge vertical integration that they get by being supportive of open source
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and building tools for the open source community to very easily deploy on their gpus
Josh:
and that seems like the strategy and that is a strategy that is going to perform
Josh:
very well because as we know the cloud based businesses in these companies have
Josh:
insane profit margins they print cash and nvidia is like right in the middle
Josh:
of that so really exciting news from nvidia this week can
Ejaaz:
I can i put my tinfoilhound for.
Josh:
A second. Yeah, well, you guys, please.
Ejaaz:
You reminded me of something just now. So NVIDIA actually doesn't have a really
Ejaaz:
good cloud business at all, which seems remarkable for the guys that actually
Ejaaz:
create the GPUs that they then sell to Amazon and Google. They're on it.
Ejaaz:
Don't count them out. They make a bank of money.
Ejaaz:
Well, do you know about the margins for these cloud providers?
Ejaaz:
So like, okay, typically when AWS has their cloud system, like forget about AI, right?
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And Google has, what is it? Google Cloud GCP.
Ejaaz:
They typically make around 80% margins. But with AI cloud, they make only 40
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to 50% because guess who's taking the bulk of the profit? It's Jensen, right?
Ejaaz:
And so they kind of want to be independent. They want to build their own chips.
Ejaaz:
But Jensen hasn't been focused on building his own cloud provider.
Ejaaz:
They had a service called DGX and it kind of didn't make much money at all.
Ejaaz:
My conspiracy theory is this. He's purchasing Hugging Face,
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which one of their mainly used products is this thing called the inference service,
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where basically not only can you go on and download these open models,
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then there are hundreds of thousands, there's actually three million of them,
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but you can inference them there on the platform
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by just kind of clicking a button and that gets routed to different like neoclouds.
Ejaaz:
So my whole thing is Jensen is not only providing the chips,
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but he's buying a company where he can effectively churn into his own cloud
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business that can compete with AWS and GCP.
Ejaaz:
It's a really genius thing because he just focuses on open source models,
Ejaaz:
but he can build that out into private models in the future if he so chooses to do it.
Ejaaz:
The second thing is, remember last week when we spoke about NVIDIA raising $500
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billion to basically back a lot of the purchases that end up going back to himself?
Ejaaz:
Well, a question that we had on that show was, what happens if he can't sell the chips?
Ejaaz:
Well, guess what? If he's purchased Hugging Face, he could just sell the chips
Ejaaz:
to Hugging Face to serve that same cloud business. So there's like this kind
Ejaaz:
of circular virtuous loop, but it makes sense from a business sense.
Ejaaz:
And I think that that's how he might be trying to play it. It is a very smart
Ejaaz:
business model. I like seeing NVIDIA expand beyond just making bleeding edge
Ejaaz:
GPUs. He's like a very smart businessman, obviously.
Josh:
And Jensen, we trust, man. The dude, he's got to figure it out.
Josh:
He's been projecting these crazy revenue numbers for years now.
Josh:
And he just like happens to be right every time so at some point you got to
Josh:
trust the guy that's been doing this for 33 years and say like all right maybe
Josh:
he knows he's talking about here we have some other stuff yeah this is very important
Josh:
We were right first of all we recorded an episode got published yesterday if
Josh:
you're listening to this we promise you a follow-up here's the follow-up there's
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a mystery model that gave 100 trillion tokens of availability out to the public
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totally for free they said here come and use it do whatever you want with it
Josh:
it's all on us for a full week
Josh:
We're not going to tell you who it is, though. We discovered yesterday who it
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was, and it is Z.ai. It's the people that brought you GLM.
Josh:
And it's their new model, 5.3 Flash. This looks like a normal model.
Josh:
This is all fine. Until I was reading through this, I realized that all of those
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tens to hundreds of trillions of tokens that were generated were not only generated
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for free, but they were generated entirely on a chip cluster that runs on Chinese silicon,
Josh:
which is a first of its kind.
Josh:
I don't think we've ever had an instance in which Chinese silicon has produced
Josh:
this amount of tokens and this amount of intelligence. Exactly.
Josh:
As the benchmarks come out, we've started to discover that it's about opus tier
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agentic level, which is very good. This isn't Frontier, but it's 15 cents per million tokens.
Josh:
And it understands video, audio, and text. So this is a really impressive model out of China.
Josh:
And on the back of our Robot Olympics episode, EJs, that we just recorded talking
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about how dominant the robots are, now I'm seeing that they are actually getting
Josh:
silicon to work at scale with pretty quick inference and a lot of it.
Josh:
Like, I'm like, oh, wow. OK, China's like they're making moves this week.
Ejaaz:
Yeah, it's concerning a little bit. And I'll tell you why.
Ejaaz:
Recently, America, at least for the last like four months, has imposed export
Ejaaz:
bans on China, meaning that they
Ejaaz:
don't allow NVIDIA to sell chips to China, which, by the way,
Ejaaz:
just to kind of reference the quarterly earnings from NVIDIA,
Ejaaz:
all that money was made by not even selling a single chip to China.
Ejaaz:
Very impressive because China was like, you know, a major profit revenue holder.
Ejaaz:
But anyway, for the Chinese Silicon, right?
Ejaaz:
They're like looking at this, they're looking at this export band.
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They're like, damn, we can't train Frontier models without NVIDIA chips.
Ejaaz:
I guess we need to build our own. And whilst they haven't built a good enough
Ejaaz:
chip that can be used to train their own AI models, they still use various different
Ejaaz:
techniques to kind of circumvent that, such as distillation.
Ejaaz:
They can build an amazing chip to inference the model, which by the way,
Ejaaz:
is where all the money is going to be made in AI by a vast order of magnitude versus pre-training.
Ejaaz:
When you look at the Chinese chip companies about six months ago,
Ejaaz:
they were two and a half years behind.
Ejaaz:
So can someone please explain to me how six months later, they're now here running
Ejaaz:
the top stack of one of the top open source models, which happens to compete
Ejaaz:
very well with US frontier models purely on Chinese silicon.
Ejaaz:
Now, if you're wondering, who's the company that built these AI chips?
Ejaaz:
Look no further than Huawei. They released a bunch of different things.
Ejaaz:
I think it's called, actually i'm not going to try and make this up because i can't,
Ejaaz:
uh remember the name of the exact chip but the cluster became live or got announced about a month ago
Ejaaz:
and now it's at full scale production now partly they're being forced to use
Ejaaz:
these chips because the chinese state government has mandated them to just not
Ejaaz:
rely on invidia chips for anything and they replied and said we can't do it
Ejaaz:
for training but we can do it for inference so let us do it
Ejaaz:
and this is the first real example and i don't know if you
Ejaaz:
used uh the model when it was in the aux alpha
Ejaaz:
stage um but okay so you you saw like it was pretty good right
Ejaaz:
but you would get a response really quickly it was super cheap didn't cost you
Ejaaz:
anything and so it functions very similarly to an nvidia inference stack and
Ejaaz:
yeah it is scary man like what happens when they
Ejaaz:
own the chip infrastructure layer and the robotics hardware manufacturing layer
Ejaaz:
like what else is left it's just they're.
Josh:
Making a lot of progress in a way that's like definitely a little unnerving
Josh:
i'm like okay this is this is new
Josh:
and i mean this is kind of the expectation right is you like i know huawei is
Josh:
banned in the united states a lot of the devices you can't really get them they're
Josh:
not sold anywhere the inverse is happening and what does a country do that doesn't
Josh:
have access to chips well they have to go and build their own
Josh:
and now they're going to continue to build their own and scale them and
Josh:
It's going to be really interesting to see how this plays out.
Josh:
They are not the only ones building chips, though, because we have a new company
Josh:
that's building chips. And this one I'm far more excited about.
Ejaaz:
Something good about Google. Look at this beauty. Is that what you're telling me? Is this Waymo?
Josh:
Yes. Waymo is looking good, man. So Waymo has this new vehicle, first of all. Oh, hi.
Josh:
And then even more importantly, they have a new chip architecture that they're
Josh:
introducing into this new vehicle design.
Josh:
And it seems like it's a fairly large improvement. I know you were going through
Josh:
the blog post, so maybe you could walk us through. But my understanding is that
Josh:
Waymo is about to get a serious upgrade.
Josh:
And not in the sense that it's going to cost less because these cars i think
Josh:
the number was like 260 000 per jaguar waymo like it's still very expensive
Josh:
but the chip that handles it
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is now 20 times more powerful than it was over the last eight years and that
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seems to make a meaningful difference in terms of the quality of your ride that
Josh:
you can actually go out and get today
Josh:
if you live in one of the areas you can go and ride away more fully autonomously
Josh:
i've done it you just i think you've done it um incredible company that has
Josh:
a really meaningful upgrade to the hardware today
Ejaaz:
So a few things with this new chip that they just created.
Ejaaz:
In prior Waymo generations, so in prior vehicles, because they have like so
Ejaaz:
many sensors, how many are there? Like 15 to 20 sensors? It's like cameras, proximity sensors.
Josh:
A lot of bulky ones, man. It looks crazy.
Ejaaz:
Sorry, I have to say it. I respect Google a lot. One of the ugliest autonomous
Ejaaz:
cars out there. The new ones are cool.
Ejaaz:
The new ones are cool, but mainly they've been horrific. The point is
Ejaaz:
the car has to ingest a lot of data translate that data into some kind of an
Ejaaz:
action, which is steer right, steer left, break, you know, get this person safely
Ejaaz:
from A to B as quickly as you can.
Ejaaz:
Now, in order to process all that information, you need a really powerful AI chip.
Ejaaz:
Waymo didn't have that. So they kind of used a hybrid of like a chip and a cloud
Ejaaz:
service. Now, that's kind of dangerous because what if the cloud service kind of breaks connection?
Ejaaz:
You end up being in a whole pot of mess.
Ejaaz:
Now with this new chip it brings all the compute on board the actual device
Ejaaz:
the device in this case being a car which i think is really cool so the entire
Ejaaz:
system josh is being run locally on device
Ejaaz:
in the single car so when in the trunk.
Josh:
Of the car i love that visual that they show exactly yeah
Ejaaz:
Wait let me let me get the the visual up yeah that's.
Josh:
Why they are showing the trunk if it wasn't clear for the last one it's like
Josh:
yeah all of that compute lives sitting underneath the trunk there.
Josh:
It's so, so cool. Pretty cool. Yeah. Yeah.
Ejaaz:
And it's a single chip or a cluster of these different chips.
Ejaaz:
And so it takes the input data from the sensors.
Ejaaz:
It processes everything through this one chip, which by the way,
Ejaaz:
is 20X more powerful and is 5X cheaper.
Ejaaz:
They lessen the cost. So do you remember in our last Waymo episode,
Ejaaz:
Josh, we were like, why do each of these cars cost like 100K?
Ejaaz:
It's because like more 260 or 280. Oh my God.
Ejaaz:
260K. Yes. Now it costs cost $25,000 a car to pop out because they were able
Ejaaz:
to create the silicon chip and reduce the cost down and run everything lower.
Josh:
Is that real? This new car costs $25,000?
Ejaaz:
Dude, look at this. Wait one second. Where's the breaking news? Yeah, over here.
Ejaaz:
So it used to cost $100,000 to $125,000. Come to the street at Wall Street.
Josh:
Okay, this is an important distinction we
Ejaaz:
Need to make. Talk to me. Talk to me. Is this Miss Info? Tell me. Tell me. No, no, no.
Josh:
So this is for the hardware. This is not for the vehicle. Okay,
Josh:
that's where I was getting confused.
Josh:
So the hardware part is like the sensor suite that sits on top of the vehicle.
Josh:
So I guess it was like $125,000 for the last one on top of a $100,000 vehicle.
Josh:
This one's $25,000 on top of an assumed lower cost vehicle. So that's an important distinction.
Ejaaz:
Yeah, yeah, sorry, sorry. Just to be clear, we're talking about the chip hardware
Ejaaz:
here, like all of that, which kind of like, you know, makes the car sexy and
Ejaaz:
do the cool thing, right?
Ejaaz:
And so the point is, with this new chip,
Ejaaz:
been able to achieve a few things. Number one, it runs locally on the car,
Ejaaz:
which means it's cheaper to run.
Ejaaz:
It's way more effective. So it's quicker. It's way more reliable.
Ejaaz:
And it's incredibly efficient. So it costs Google less. It costs Waymo less,
Ejaaz:
which is why they've been able to kind of reduce the cost by like three to four
Ejaaz:
X, which is very impressive for any successive generation.
Ejaaz:
I just think it's a really cool bit of hardware device. You know,
Ejaaz:
we like hardware on this show. And I'm happy Waymo's taking this path forward.
Josh:
Very good. It looks cool it looks like a fun science experiment like the car
Josh:
itself looks interesting the new ohi it's
Josh:
fun it's different it looks like disney world this is a really cool promo video
Josh:
showing it oh my god wow yeah it's it's like a unique design i mean granted
Josh:
if you were to design a fully autonomous car i'm not sure why there's two seats
Josh:
still facing forward in the way they are with the steering wheel
Ejaaz:
Hang on wait did he turn around in this let's see josh.
Josh:
I'm not sure oh no no he's he's turning his body around so we mentioned the
Josh:
cost of these sensors is it's about 25 000 for the suite, the hardware, the sensors.
Josh:
You know what else is $25,000 each as?
Josh:
The entire CyberCab from Tesla, the whole thing, including the vehicle. It will be $25,000.
Ejaaz:
$25,000 per vehicle?
Josh:
Per vehicle, with the whole sensor stack. So what you'll notice with the Waymos
Josh:
is they have this huge amount of spinning LiDAR sensors and very complicated sensor stack.
Josh:
The Robotaxi that we're seeing on screen here, the CyberCab from Tesla,
Josh:
has, I think it's eight cameras, very similar to the ones that are sitting in
Josh:
your smartphone right now.
Josh:
So basically, if you imagine the camera's on your smartphone,
Josh:
they are placed into a vehicle and put in the right place.
Josh:
That combined with the cost of the actual vehicle is...
Josh:
Probably going to fall around $25,000 in terms of cost of goods sold.
Josh:
And it works. And it is being deployed starting September 3rd at scale.
Josh:
So what we see here is actual production ready level cybercabs that are going
Josh:
to be going around a select few cities.
Josh:
In the announcement post, could we pull that up so I can read it off?
Josh:
I'm not sure exactly which ones is going. I know there is one in Austin.
Josh:
I know there's one in Dallas. So yeah, Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Tampa.
Josh:
If you live in any of those places, you can go and get in a cybercab right now.
Josh:
And I think this is going to be a really unique and interesting inflection point
Josh:
for the autonomous vehicle world
Josh:
in general, because we have Waymo that's making really good progress.
Josh:
And Waymo is right now much more accessible. They're doing many more miles per day.
Josh:
And people have gotten comfortable with it. If you live in Los Angeles,
Josh:
if you live in San Francisco, having Waymos go around, it's just a part of your
Josh:
life. And you don't even think twice about it now.
Josh:
The CyberCab has an opportunity to really change that in the sense that the
Josh:
cost per mile on the cyber cab will be significantly less than that of the waymo
Josh:
when you look at the waymo vehicle it has like these big bumpers that's really
Josh:
big and it's not a very efficient car
Josh:
the cyber cab has much more efficiency which allows it to decrease the cost
Josh:
per mile and it's going to be really interesting to see how they're able to scale that because
Josh:
Waymos notoriously are geofenced they work in very specific locations i've been
Josh:
using a tesla fully self-driving for years now and
Josh:
with no oversight they work anywhere so as soon as regulation comes online We
Josh:
may see a world in which like 12 months from now, cybercabs are just roaming around everywhere.
Josh:
And we have the opportunity to get in them, drive them around.
Josh:
And the idea is that you'll never need to own a car because the cost per mile
Josh:
will be so low that it will offset any expenses incurred by actually buying
Josh:
the physical vehicle. So really cool time.
Josh:
For autonomous vehicles, autonomous cars in general. Keep an eye out for Wemo.
Josh:
Keep an eye out for the Tesla event that's happening next week.
Ejaaz:
You know where I'm not going to be keeping my eye out? In New York City.
Josh:
Because they like to just ban all innovation.
Ejaaz:
New York City sucks, man.
Josh:
It sucks, man.
Ejaaz:
It's so brutal. It's so cool, but it sucks. Like, bring us the new tech early
Ejaaz:
on, for goodness sake, please.
Ejaaz:
Now, I want to have a call out just very quickly on this particular topic, Josh.
Ejaaz:
Producer Luke, we love him. He is in one of these places. He's in Austin.
Ejaaz:
Guess how many times he's rode in a robo-taxi? Go on, guess.
Josh:
Well, I think once, maybe.
Ejaaz:
I think it's zero, dude. I think it's zero.
Josh:
He may have done one, but it wasn't a cyber cab.
Ejaaz:
I don't trust it. That image was AI generated. I need to see you, Luke.
Ejaaz:
I know you'll listen to this because you're editing this right now.
Ejaaz:
Like, I need to see you in a cyber cab, dude. It would be awesome.
Josh:
Anyway, moving on. We'll get a fact checker in here.
Ejaaz:
Who is our favorite investor in the world, Josh?
Josh:
Oh, you mean the 25-year-old who was fired by OpenAI, raised a billion dollars
Josh:
and then had 45 and then lost it all and then Citadel bought it all out and
Josh:
now he's being investigated by the SEC?
Ejaaz:
Wow, actually a very good, succinct summary. That's a very ChatGPT-esque,
Ejaaz:
Josh. Very impressive. Yes, that is actually it. That guy.
Josh:
Wait, but what's his name again?
Ejaaz:
Yeah, Leopold Ashenbrenner.
Josh:
Oh, yeah, that one, that one, Leopold. Yeah, yeah, that's right.
Ejaaz:
Okay, listen, like my hands are up for those of you who are about to like write nasty comments, right?
Ejaaz:
We love Leopold Ashenbrenner. I still think his thesis isn't intact.
Ejaaz:
He just, you know, don't trade with leverage, kids.
Ejaaz:
But he is now being investigated by the SEC or rather specifically,
Ejaaz:
the SEC has subpoenaed a bunch of banks which facilitated situational awareness
Ejaaz:
funds, which is Liverpool's fund, trades out of suspicion that potentially the,
Ejaaz:
there was insider trading. Now, this is something that we have kind of briefly
Ejaaz:
referenced and spoken about on the show.
Ejaaz:
Ajit Balwit, who is now officially Leopold Ashenbrenner's wife,
Ejaaz:
is the chief of staff at Anthropik.
Ejaaz:
And there's a few other types of things going on there. But effectively,
Ejaaz:
the question is, has Leopold been kind of getting information and trading on
Ejaaz:
that information when he should have kind of like publicly disclosed it? We don't know.
Ejaaz:
But this is just another kind of pitfall into this whole,
Ejaaz:
probe where, you know, Leopold's been taking hits, hit after hit recently
Ejaaz:
um he recently got back into the game actually he's like gotten a new open book
Ejaaz:
he made a 400 million dollar private investment in some other company goodness
Ejaaz:
knows where he got 400 million dollars from but he's doing the thing and technically
Ejaaz:
the fund is still up but yeah just curious to see why this all ends up i don't
Ejaaz:
know if you have any thoughts on this josh.
Josh:
Yeah it's mostly just like people don't like leopold and what does it take to
Josh:
open an investigation you file a complaint someone says okay we've acknowledged
Josh:
your complaint now there's an open investigation and then you can report the investigation
Josh:
it could be nothing it could be something chances are it's probably nothing
Josh:
and i think leopold's just down people want him to be down even more and chances
Josh:
are he's going to be just fine this will kind of blow boat over and there won't
Josh:
really be much that comes from it
Josh:
um in leopold we trust man i'm still rooting for the guy i'm excited to see
Josh:
the new 13f to see what on earth is going to be
Josh:
on the comeback portfolio after the entire public one got wiped out so
Josh:
we'll keep our eyes peeled as we always do on leopold I'm also seeing some charts
Josh:
here, EJS, on Fable 5 and Anthropic and like enterprise sales and businesses.
Josh:
What is what are we showing here?
Ejaaz:
I just think there's some chartsmithing going on here. So like a few things
Ejaaz:
going on here. So the Financial Times released a chart and it shows the usage
Ejaaz:
of Anthropic's different models over time.
Ejaaz:
And I don't know if I can open this up, Josh. I don't know if this makes it
Ejaaz:
makes it a little tricky for you.
Josh:
We'll move it. We'll move it. There we go.
Ejaaz:
But if you can have a look over here, you'll notice that Fable growth kind of
Ejaaz:
like accelerated in mid-June to the kind of the end of July and has kind of been flat.
Ejaaz:
Now, number one, I don't know where they've got these numbers from because Anthropik
Ejaaz:
is not a private company, so I don't think these are necessarily reliable.
Ejaaz:
But the point they're making is it has stagnated.
Ejaaz:
And instead, people or companies rather are choosing to use some of their other
Ejaaz:
clawed models. Now, there are many reasons why companies would do this,
Ejaaz:
whether it's cost, whether it's efficiency, whether it's just kind of like preference
Ejaaz:
or taste of like the model's personality.
Ejaaz:
But it's interesting to see that a frontier model isn't being taken up as much as they can.
Ejaaz:
And the point that they compared this to is that OpenAI's models have seen increased usage.
Ejaaz:
Now, my comments on this is simple, which is OpenAI is just like has a smaller
Ejaaz:
user base than Anthropik.
Ejaaz:
Now, it's still granted very large, but obviously any hike in usage,
Ejaaz:
which they're particularly seen with Codex specifically, which,
Ejaaz:
by the way, is a fantastic product, is going to result in a larger uptake or
Ejaaz:
percentage increase, right?
Ejaaz:
Whereas with Fable, maybe if the stagnation is the thing, maybe people are just,
Ejaaz:
you know, factoring in the cost.
Ejaaz:
Fable is notably, you know, more expensive than a lot of other models,
Ejaaz:
but it is also operating at the frontier better than any other model.
Ejaaz:
So I can see why maybe there's a hesitancy, you know, you've got all these new
Ejaaz:
open source models, GLM 5.3 Flash, and you're thinking, okay,
Ejaaz:
maybe if I can get 80% of my work done using a cheap model, I'll use Fable for
Ejaaz:
the other 20%. But the point is, the pie is growing bigger and bigger. And I think this is,
Ejaaz:
None other than a bit of a hit piece.
Josh:
Well, it looks like the chart is reflecting the pie growing bigger,
Josh:
right? It's like the numbers are going up into the right.
Josh:
The business spending in total based on this chart looks like it's going up.
Josh:
And maybe this is kind of the phenomenon that we described earlier where there's
Josh:
just a lot of demand for lower cost tokens, but the overall demand is continuing
Josh:
to increase. And like perhaps that is a conclusion we can draw from this.
Josh:
I'm confused what the other actually is. Like, are they talking about like Haiku
Josh:
or something? Because they have Sonnet, Opus, Fable. What else is there?
Ejaaz:
I'm not quite.
Josh:
Sure what's going on here i don't know but hey everyone's having i mean the
Josh:
models are great on a day-to-day basis i'm still using it i'm getting a lot
Josh:
of usage out of it and i'm kind of enjoying the time there
Josh:
so it's um yeah we'll see i think is kind of like where where we can leave this
Josh:
one is like okay well i'm i'm
Josh:
sorry for enterprises but like hey we're cooking like for twenty dollars a month
Josh:
a hundred dollars a month two hundred dollars a month like the tokens are flowing
Ejaaz:
I think there's a there's another reason though right which is like did you
Ejaaz:
see this whole debate around zero data retention.
Ejaaz:
I started yawning when I read that phrase, Josh, because I was like,
Ejaaz:
oh my God, what do you mean by this?
Josh:
But like, yeah, oh, sounds fun.
Ejaaz:
And another big thing for these enterprises is they want to use the latest frontier
Ejaaz:
models. And to be honest, when you're an enterprise, you don't care about spending
Ejaaz:
more money if it means you're going to make even more money.
Ejaaz:
So like, I'll spend money on the most expensive model.
Ejaaz:
But a big compliance thing that they face is this thing called zero data retention, where
Ejaaz:
if you have a company, a software company, which you kind of lease their tools
Ejaaz:
or whatever, and they retain proprietary information for their own usage,
Ejaaz:
which they could technically use to build better models, which is what Anthropik has to do right now.
Ejaaz:
But I believe they're in the process of evolving that potentially.
Ejaaz:
Who knows? This is just rumors at this point.
Ejaaz:
I believe this is something that will just kind of flip that switch and suddenly
Ejaaz:
we'll look back on that chart and suddenly it's spiked up growth.
Ejaaz:
So I just think this is a nothing burger. ZDR is very common.
Ejaaz:
I don't think OpenAI is enforcing it right now, which might,
Ejaaz:
be the reason why they're like accelerating faster over the last couple of months
Ejaaz:
but just something to be aware of.
Josh:
Okay so maybe the chart is nothing burger but the thing that is real is the
Josh:
use of tokens and the use of tokens are generated mostly by agents and if you
Josh:
are working with agents we have just the people for you their name is ledger
Josh:
ledger is offering a way to build with your ai agents because if you're worried
Josh:
about security you should be because agents as we know are
Josh:
not very secure at the moment they're getting very smart very quickly ledger
Josh:
has an agent stack that fixes this it's a series of open source tools that you
Josh:
can go and use in order to make sure that the agent
Josh:
is giving you the expected outcome that you want.
Josh:
It does this through a three-step process where the agents propose,
Josh:
the humans approve, and the ledger signers enforce. And this is all open source.
Josh:
It works everywhere that you work with your AI agents. It works in codex,
Josh:
it works in cloud code, it works in cursor.
Josh:
So if you are interested, the link is in the description down below.
Josh:
Thank you very much to Ledger for sponsoring this episode.
Josh:
Two nothing burgers in a row. We got to turn this around, man.
Josh:
Leopold, Anthropic, what do we got? This is not a nothing burger.
Josh:
This is a something burger.
Ejaaz:
What if I gave you continual learning robotics model, huh?
Josh:
Dude, it's a big week for the robots. First, we had the Robot Olympics.
Josh:
Then we have full self-driving vehicles. Now we have robotic learning.
Josh:
And this is one of many announcements that I saw this week. There was another
Josh:
one that I thought was super cool where you can actually go and get paid like
Josh:
$15 an hour to perform tasks in your house.
Josh:
And as long as you do that with the camera, that allows you to train the robots.
Josh:
You will be paid as if you are a full-time employee.
Josh:
It's like kind of cool, very fun. This is another version of that,
Josh:
it seems like, where they're just...
Josh:
Basically throwing a ton of data at these models and emerging from that data are
Josh:
physical capabilities that robots are learning from scratch and they're doing
Josh:
so in a way that's fairly efficient what i like about this example that we're
Josh:
seeing on screen right now too is it's not this isn't purely humanoid this is
Josh:
more of a narrow purpose uh narrow
Josh:
very specific type of robot that they're working on so it seems like this is
Josh:
a kind of new paradigm where robots are getting enough data to start meaningfully
Josh:
progress and get good at these tasks.
Josh:
And we're seeing so many unique and creative ways of collecting this data. I remember we did one
Josh:
doordash or something where they were paying dashers to strap cameras to their heads
Ejaaz:
It was doordash.
Josh:
It was doordash that way they can like go and collect data for what it looks
Josh:
like to deliver an item to a person's house and then taking all that data you get the antik
Ejaaz:
The pokemon go company.
Josh:
As well that's right that's right yeah so there's all these really creative ways of of
Josh:
paying humans to collect data to then automate the tasks that they're doing
Josh:
and i think it's really cool to see the actual progress come from this in terms
Josh:
of the ability of these robots to do more and more interesting tasks that we
Josh:
as humans do and maybe we don't want to
Josh:
and i think a lot of people probably default to like oh this is bad we're paying human beings to
Josh:
offload the responsibilities to robots but the reality is is like how many people actually
Josh:
love doing this stuff like how many people love to clean or love to cook or
Josh:
love to take the trash out or love to like deliver food
Josh:
there's perhaps much better options on the other side of automating that and
Josh:
it results in much lower costs for everyone who is using those services so this
Josh:
seems like a win, even though on the surface, I could see why it's scary.
Josh:
And this is a really cool example of that in practice. I mean,
Josh:
this is a pretty sweet video.
Ejaaz:
Yeah, I mean, just to kind of explain what's going on here, they made a breakthrough
Ejaaz:
in robotics models. Now, typically, the problem that you have with robotics
Ejaaz:
models is they're really hard to train in order to get the data to teach it
Ejaaz:
how to do really complex stuff.
Ejaaz:
You need to, you know, get those videos like you mentioned, Josh,
Ejaaz:
and you need to kind of like teach it a million different things that hard code it into a model.
Ejaaz:
It is incredibly complex and hard to do, which is why we haven't seen a cool
Ejaaz:
robot in your house as of recently.
Ejaaz:
The breakthrough these guys made is something called in-context learning,
Ejaaz:
which means you can feed this robot one video of you making pancakes and flipping the pancake,
Ejaaz:
and it'll be able to figure it out from that 30-second video and do it itself.
Ejaaz:
But the craziest part is, Josh, let's say.
Ejaaz:
I filmed you making a pancake and you flipped it and it fell on the floor,
Ejaaz:
right? The robot's seen this, right? So presumably you would think it would do the same.
Ejaaz:
It doesn't do that. It knows when you've made a mistake and it can take it further
Ejaaz:
and start making multiple pancakes at the same time and then stacking them on
Ejaaz:
top of each other. It has this intuitive feel.
Ejaaz:
So an example that they show in this video here, I think they already passed
Ejaaz:
it, is it uses a kind of dustpan and brush to kind of sweep a block onto the pan, right?
Ejaaz:
And then they replaced the handle with a banana.
Ejaaz:
And it was like, what would it do in this case? It realized that it was a banana.
Ejaaz:
It realized it wasn't a brush, but it still did the same thing and brushed the block onto the pad.
Ejaaz:
So it has a intuitive understanding of what it needs to do and is willing to
Ejaaz:
use any and every kind of tool to do the thing, which is the breakthrough in this robotics model.
Ejaaz:
And I think it's going to get us much quicker to having a robot in our home
Ejaaz:
that can intuitively just do things without us needing to hard code it or tell it what to do.
Josh:
Very very so close on the edge of the robot revolution is a good way of describing
Josh:
it we had the olympic games that we had a full episode about earlier this week
Josh:
so if you haven't watched that go check that out um
Josh:
the opening ceremony is a little bit militant for china which is scary so
Josh:
perhaps like you know take that one with a grain of salt um we have a few rapid
Josh:
fire ones at the end of this episode my personal favorite here we have a date
Josh:
for the apple event It's coming. It is September 9th at 1 p.m.
Ejaaz:
Eastern time. Is this Siri AI, Josh?
Josh:
Dude, we are finally... No.
Josh:
It's not going to happen just yet, but basically what this one is,
Josh:
is the hardware. So there's two types of events. There's the developer conference,
Josh:
then there's the actual hardware event.
Josh:
Developer conference released or unveiled Siri. The release of Siri will come
Josh:
shortly after this hardware event, and it will come paired with the new hardware devices.
Josh:
The new hardware devices are expected to be a new iPhone 18 Pro,
Josh:
a foldable device, which I'm incredibly excited to get my hands on.
Josh:
And more importantly, this is the first event with Apple's new CEO in charge.
Josh:
Tim Cook isn't going to be on stage here. it's uh john turness who's running
Josh:
it there's a new guy in charge he's a hardware guy this is all the new hardware
Josh:
we're going to be getting specifically built for
Josh:
apple intelligence and man we've been waiting for this for what three years
Josh:
to get actual intelligence inside these phones so very excited to see how that's
Josh:
going to play out what the hardware is going to look like how the software will integrate with it
Josh:
and probably a month from now we will all have brand new iphones with siri intelligence
Josh:
inside of them and that is a very exciting thing so Oh, please. Fingers crossed.
Ejaaz:
I mean, the chip thing is cool, right? I saw the M5 Pro and the M6 kind of get
Ejaaz:
announced and the price points.
Josh:
Of those are- New Mac Mini, New Mac Studio.
Ejaaz:
Kind of up there, right? So it's like, I think it's like 900 bucks for the M6
Ejaaz:
or, and then 1,500 for the M5.
Josh:
Have you heard the high end of the studio?
Ejaaz:
Gone. Wait, wait, wait, let me guess, let me guess, let me guess.
Josh:
You're gonna be wrong.
Ejaaz:
Three thousand dollars no.
Josh:
I think it's like eighteen thousand five hundred dollars for them if you want
Josh:
to maxed out mac studio with like the m6 ultra and all the ram that you can get it's okay
Ejaaz:
Crazy i'm going into.
Josh:
That things have gotten but hey if you got the money and you want to run some
Josh:
local inference oh my god there's your cost of entry all these people talking about free models buy
Ejaaz:
An nvidia gpu at this point dude like what are we doing.
Josh:
Here that's crazy model that like just how about you just pay for like a subscription
Josh:
or like an api key i'm like let the big guys serve your inference because it's
Josh:
getting real expensive to do it locally by the Wait,
Ejaaz:
Blame the memory manufacturers for this. That's why the price is hiking across everything right now.
Josh:
And they got great margins too. I was looking at the videos and I'm like,
Josh:
man, these people are charging way too much money for this. They're driving up all the prices.
Josh:
Last topic. I thought this was really funny, EJ, as you put it in.
Ejaaz:
It's like, I'm a watch guy. Yeah, so basically, breaking news,
Ejaaz:
guys. Arguably the biggest topic of this entire episode.
Ejaaz:
Sam Altman just ordered seven ultra rare custom Swiss watches from this company
Ejaaz:
called Vanguard. are, I'm definitely butchering that name, with a branded OpenAI logo on the dial.
Ejaaz:
No commentary, right? First, let's observe.
Ejaaz:
Look at this masterpiece. For those who wear Apple Watches, I need you to just
Ejaaz:
take that thing off your wrist for a second and just appreciate the mastery
Ejaaz:
that is on your screen right now. This looks so cool.
Josh:
Can we take a second? Because I just so happen to have an Apple Watch in my
Josh:
hand. Please. It appears like the band on my Apple Watch looks oddly similar to the band on that
Ejaaz:
Watch absolutely and that is because the memory component the equivalent of
Ejaaz:
this is that complex cognitive function that is happening inside the thing who
Ejaaz:
cares about the plastic strap you can literally you see this little attachment over how many.
Josh:
Tokens per second does that generate
Ejaaz:
Oh god not enough not enough but um inscribed on the back of each of these watches
Ejaaz:
is if agi dot aligned deploy which was written by a programming language python dot Vanguard.
Ejaaz:
So the point is, I think this is like, you know, Sam kind of like giving a peace
Ejaaz:
offering before potential rumored.
Ejaaz:
IPO that I think is coming very soon and he wants to give it to his ranking
Ejaaz:
order of people that haven't left open air over the last two weeks.
Ejaaz:
Sorry for the shade. I've just seen a lot of executives leave recently,
Ejaaz:
but it's a beautiful watch.
Ejaaz:
People have been discussing what the secondary value of this might be.
Ejaaz:
And people are guesstimating this would be in the order of 500 K to a million
Ejaaz:
dollars. I personally think it would be higher because there's only seven of them.
Ejaaz:
And one of them will be worn by Sam's on Sam's wrist. So that's definitely not going to solve.
Josh:
This is kind of like um what it like the push presence like when when your like
Josh:
wife has a child it's like when your executives produce agi please
Ejaaz:
Please turn off now thank you well.
Josh:
This like i think this makes sense right it's like when your executives produce
Josh:
agi like hey guys thanks like here's a million dollar watch type thing um because
Josh:
i was listening to sam altman or i was reading the time publication of sam altman
Josh:
and what he was saying and they fully expect to have agi internally by the end of this year
Josh:
and for those that are not familiar we are about to enter september which means
Josh:
we are close to the end of this year so maybe perhaps he's getting these custom
Josh:
made in anticipation of their internal rollout of agi whatever they believe that to be
Josh:
um so that's just an interesting thing worth noting worth following lovely watches
Josh:
like hey the limitless guys i mean i'd take a half million dollar watches
Josh:
i think i'd make shows a million whatever it's going to cost that'd be cool
Josh:
but that's the round of this is a long one today we're like 40 minutes into
Josh:
this thing um so if you made it this far man
Josh:
Thanks for coming along with us on this journey. It's been a good one.
Josh:
A lot of stuff happening this week.
Josh:
The things are picking themselves up. The roundup's getting longer.
Josh:
There's more stuff to talk about.
Josh:
I'd say it's a big robotics week this week. A lot of robots.
Josh:
A lot of China talk this week. Good week for the Chinese.
Josh:
Whether it's good for us, we don't know TBD, but like good week for the Chinese.
Josh:
Good week for NVIDIA and Jensen.
Ejaaz:
Hey, it's good for Limitless as well. We're putting out so much content, so much to talk about.
Ejaaz:
What was the other thing? That was like the open rail acquisition that might
Ejaaz:
have been last week's news. Who knows?
Josh:
Who's on track, man?
Ejaaz:
We are covering anything and everything that is happening in AI and frontier
Ejaaz:
tech or whatever just makes, you know, Josh and I pretty excited.
Ejaaz:
And we're doing that four times a week. So if you haven't listened to any of
Ejaaz:
our episodes this week, please check it out. We also have a newsletter that
Ejaaz:
goes out to, I think it's like 110,000 of you that are reading our stuff every
Ejaaz:
single week, twice a week.
Ejaaz:
We do an essay and we also do the weekly roundup, which if you don't want to
Ejaaz:
listen to our beautiful, soothing voices telling you about AI,
Ejaaz:
you can just go read the quick summary digest we are covering you everywhere on spotify apple
Ejaaz:
as well as youtube if you aren't subscribed if you haven't left us a comment
Ejaaz:
if you haven't given us a rating what are you doing please do all of that,
Ejaaz:
send it share it with a friend it helps us out massively josh have i forgotten anything.
Josh:
I mean you can and i know this is kind of rough for me to say because i haven't
Josh:
been posting much but on screen our our handles on x are showing and you can
Josh:
go and follow us there for more information on the day-to-day you just i know
Josh:
you're always firing off stuff about updates so that's just like a fun little
Josh:
call out if you've made it this far.
Josh:
And, you know, you're interested in hearing a little bit more.
Josh:
I'll work to post more on that platform.
Josh:
But that's it. Like you can go feel free to like you're dismissed.
Josh:
Go touch grass. Go enjoy the weekend.
Josh:
Get off your phone for a little bit. You're now fully up to date and all of
Josh:
the things. AI frontier technology.
Josh:
You're in the loop. You can go out to your like weekend barbecue.
Josh:
I mean, close to the end of the weekend. We're almost we're almost there.
Josh:
I don't want to think about that.
Josh:
But yeah, that's pretty much everything. Thank you so much. I mean,
Josh:
share with your friends if you if you got some that would be interested. And yeah, enjoy.