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- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Austin Pearson, Midwest Regional Climate Center
(your chance to earn $350)
- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net
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- Austin Pearson, Midwest Regional Climate Center
(your chance to earn $350)
- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net
Creators and Guests
What is Closing Market Report?
Celebrating 40 Years | 10,000 Episodes
Established 1985
The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.
website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek
From the land grant university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the July. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett.
Todd Gleason:We'll preview next week's USB. That's the United Soybean Board funded climate tools webinar where you, if you sign up right away, may very well be able to earn $350. And we'll talk about the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Mike Tenora at T Storm Weather on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.
announcer:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:September corn for the day at four zero one and three quarters that finished three and a quarter higher. December at four twenty and three quarters up three and a quarter. And the March at four thirty eight and a quarter, three and a half higher. August beans a penny and a half lower at $10.04 and a quarter. November 1024 and a quarter, up a penny and a half for the day.
Todd Gleason:Bean meal down two dollars thirty cents. The bean oil, 53¢ higher. Soft red winter wheat, unchanged at $5.61 and a quarter. The hard red at $5.49 and three quarters, up three and three quarters. Both of those in the December contract.
Todd Gleason:Live cattle futures, a buck 35 lower for the day. The feeder cattle at $3.28 90, down $2.62 and a half, and lean hogs were up 20¢ at $91.10. Crude oil, 84¢ a barrel at $66.07. And the wholesale price of gasoline, about a penny and a tenth lower at $2.07 and a half cents. Matt Bennett from agmarket.net is here now to take a look at the marketplace.
Todd Gleason:Hi, Matt. Thank you for being with us today.
Matt Bennett:Yeah. Absolutely. Thanks for having me, Todd.
Todd Gleason:It's been another interesting week in the commodity markets. Lots of attention, of course, on trade agreements and what they really mean for agriculture. Ben Brown told us earlier in the week, ag economist from Missouri, that they're probably actually were included in Indonesia and maybe some other places, some agreements on actual deliveries of commodities to some of these different nations. However, the marketplace hasn't really reacted. What have you been watching most closely this week?
Matt Bennett:You know, I he he's right. I mean, there's a lot of whispers as to what exactly has been agreed to. First of all, none of us know for sure there's not been official announcements on some of these agreements. You know, they came out this morning and said that you know, supposedly something had been put together with China, you know, and and that they're very close to that being done. I mean, we've heard that multiple times But what are we watching?
Matt Bennett:Of course, we're watching the weather. The interesting thing, Todd, is of course, a lot of folks just continue to get a lot of rainfall. We're hearing from several growers in Iowa that are saying they're going backwards at this point because they've just had too much rain. And so, you know, several of our brokers in Iowa have actually said, you know, they had another entry in Eddyville, Iowa last night and they said we didn't need it. We didn't want it but we got it and so, typically, you're not going to hurt a crop by too much rain but you know, there's places in Iowa that in the last month have had, you know, 15 inches of rain.
Matt Bennett:So, it'll be very interesting to kind of see how the trade views that moving forward but I think how people view it right now is just simply crop ratings. You know, you got 74% good to excellent on corn, 68% good to excellent on soybeans. And so at this stage of the game, it's hot. They think that this heat might break sometime here next week. But if we were to come in on Sunday night, there's no doubt if the forecast said, hey, actually this is going to kind stick around for a little while.
Matt Bennett:Maybe limit some of the rainfall in some areas. You know, then I think that maybe the trade could get a little bit excited. It was just a year ago that a hot and dry August directly impacted yields, moisture contents, you name it. We shaved some bushels off this crop. But what are we trading right now, Todd?
Matt Bennett:Probably a one eighty four, one eighty five on corn. So, yeah, it'll be pretty interesting kind of see how the month of August goes Without a weather issue, Todd, I have a hard time believing this current trajectory will change.
Todd Gleason:Eddyville, Iowa, of course, located to the South and East of Des Moines. It's home of a plant that produces high fructose corn syrup. I suppose they're a little concerned maybe in that area, particularly as it relates to what Coca Cola might be up to with its products and some switch to cane sugar rather than corn syrup. The tray didn't really make too much of that either because it it is makes up a small amount of total usage of the corn, though it is of concern to some extent, particularly as basis is related around the Eddyville area. Speaking of basis, I suppose you've been watching that.
Todd Gleason:There will be some producers who still need to market corn. What has basis done going into ADM Decatur?
Matt Bennett:Yeah. In ADM Decatur, actually, there is a push for corn July 28, I believe through around the fourth or fifth. We're actually hearing a pretty decent pop, whereas I believe their current posted bids around 18 over. It sounds like that they'll go 35 over, you know, for that particular time frame and so, there's no doubt that some of these end users are probably run a little more snug than maybe what they prefer, you know, and so with that the case, you know, I think they're trying to get a hold of a few of these bushels and try to pry them out of the farmer's hands. And of course, basis is having to do the work because, you know, you look at these prices and clearly there are no home run versus some of the prices we've seen before.
Matt Bennett:But jeez, Todd, if you go back to last fall, yeah, there was a lot of $3.5 corn sold. So if a grower is able to step in here and get $4.3 of course, you're gonna have to pay to get it there, but that's not a terrible price. I don't know that you can expect anything a whole lot better than that. And so last thing I'll say on that basis, DPO, you know, of course, you get east of us and it's still just hotter than a firecracker trying to get bushels pulled out to the East Coast. And that certainly, in my opinion, is probably filtered into us somewhat to get us all the way to a level where they'll pay, you know, like a 35 over type basis.
Matt Bennett:Again, I don't know that that's posted. I just know that that was quoted directly to me today. So, you know, with that being the case, we gotta remember that we're running out of time. So, you know, Delta, they'll be harvesting corn within the next month, you know, and probably in the next three weeks. So that's certainly gonna be a a situation where they'll be able to satisfy some of these export demands, you know, and and you'll probably, see basis kind of back off once you get a little bit of harvest going.
Todd Gleason:I haven't spent much time with the soybeans for the better part of a month. What should I be concerned about there today?
Matt Bennett:Yeah. Mean, soybeans are directly gonna be impacted by what happens up here on the weather. I mean, yeah, ten, twenty five beans are nothing to write home about. I get it. A dry August and you could probably tack a dollar on that bean market.
Matt Bennett:I don't wanna be bullish though. You know, the thing is I wanna look at this as, hey, if mother nature does give us even a weather scare, I mean, I don't want anybody's yields being hurt by any means but if she gives us a weather scare scare and we come in here, you know, and tack on 50¢ to a dollar on the market, I think a person has to have some resting offers out there. It is my opinion that if we have, you know, just a normal August, maybe one rain, two rains. My opinion, most of growers listening to this are going to be looking at a fairly nice bean crop. I mean, we've got tons of growth, flowered really well.
Matt Bennett:Of course, I think most growers have decided on fungicide. I know it's an additional cost, but trying to protect every bushel we can at this stage of the game. I think you could be looking at some awfully salty bean yields. So I think it's very important for a grower to update, hey, what is my, most realistic, guesstimate as far as production's concerned? And then see where that puts my breakeven because that's the best way to spread per acre cost out on your farms to add yield.
Matt Bennett:And I think we've got a really good shot of having above APH yields here, especially in Central Illinois.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much, Matt.
Matt Bennett:Absolutely. Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason:That is Matt Bennett. He is with agmarket.net. Just one agricultural news item for the day. US secretary of agriculture Brooke Rollins has announced the reorganization of the United States Department of Agriculture, refocusing its core, she says, on operations to better align with its founding mission of supporting American farming, ranching, and forestry. USDA notes that over the last four years, USDA's workforce grew by about 8% and employee salaries increased 14 and a half percent.
Todd Gleason:The secretary notes that the USDA's footprint in the National Capital Region is underutilized. On that note, they expect the reorganization to consist of four pillars. First, to ensure the size of USDA's workforce aligns with the available financial resources and agricultural priorities. Second, to bring USDA closer to its customers. Third, to eliminate management layers and bureaucracy.
Todd Gleason:And finally, to consolidate redundant support functions. The department currently has approximately 4,600 employees within the National Capital Region. It expects no more than 2,000 employees will remain in that region after the reorganization is complete. USDA says it will vacate and return to the government's General Services Administration, the South Building, Braddock Place, and the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center and revisit utilization and functions of the USDA Witten Building. It will do the same with the Yates Building and the National Agricultural Library.
Todd Gleason:The George Washington Carver Center will also be utilized until space optimization activities are complete. These buildings, they say, have a backlog of costly deferred maintenance and are currently occupied below the minimum set by law. USDA will concentrate federal employees in five different locations across the nation rather than DC. These include Raleigh, North Carolina, Kansas City, Missouri, Indianapolis, Indiana, Fort Collins, Colorado, and Salt Lake, Utah. We're now joined by Austin Pearson.
Todd Gleason:He's a climatologist with the Midwest Regional Climate Center. He's based on the Purdue campus in Lafayette. Hi, Austin. Thank you very much. You're here today because you want to offer 350 up to producers, farmers, and people who sign up for a virtual look at the way you do business to some extent.
Todd Gleason:Tell me about it, please.
Austin Pearson:Yeah. So here at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, we received a grant from the United Soybean Board to release an ag climate dashboard. It's a digital resource designed to provide farmers with current climate and agricultural information in a single location. So, what this platform does is it brings together real time weather updates, national weather service forecasts, also tools for pest alerts and crop growth tracking. So having these tools in a centralized location, it helps farmers make management decisions more as they're more informed and efficient in that manner.
Austin Pearson:We had some workshops back in 2023 to gather input from farmers about all the different climate tools and resources that are available. One of the biggest complaints was that they have to go to several different sites to find this information. So putting them into a centralized location can help them expedite their decision process when making farm management decisions. We've got tools on there that look at monitoring growing degree days from a user specified plant date and then also tracking pest risk, for different locations. I know alfalfa weevil was a big issue earlier in the season, and so people were able to use, tools from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet that now we have, pointed to in this dashboard, they can utilize that to expedite their pest management decision earlier in the season, and stuff like that.
Austin Pearson:So what what this dashboard is gonna allow us to do is is streamline access to tools, freely available tools for producers across the Midwest to help them, make their decisions on their farm.
Todd Gleason:How is it that farmers can participate in this process of maybe developing the tools?
Austin Pearson:Yeah. So on Wednesday, July 30 from 9AM to 12PM central time, we are going to be hosting a virtual workshop that is funded by the United Soybean Board. The Midwestern Regional Climate Center combined with Illinois Extension as well as Trent Ford, the state climatologist, we're gonna host that virtual workshop. We're gonna gather feedback on the dashboard and just general data needs and decision support needs that farmers and advisors need to help streamline their decisions throughout and outside of the growing season. So by participating in the workshop, your feedback will help guide the development of the next generation of weather weather tools that we include in the dashboard, And then also develop real world needs and just to find out real world needs of what users are are desperately needing for that.
Austin Pearson:And and to to top it off, the first 25 people who register get a $350 stipend for just participating. And so, you know, it it it's really easy to to do that and and get paid for your opinions.
Todd Gleason:Oh, that's fantastic. Is there anything else we should know?
Austin Pearson:Here's what we're gonna do during the workshop. We're gonna take a a hard look at the, dashboard. We're gonna get information from you all and the usability and different tools that are in that. And then we'll also get, some information from you all on the data needs for soybean production, and not just soybean production, just row crop production in the Midwest in general. So we're hoping to get as much feedback on the dashboard, but also assessing, the needs of the industry moving forward.
Todd Gleason:Okay. There are a couple of ways that folks can sign up or at least, ways that they, confine to sign up. One of them is if you are subscribed to the Crop Central email from the University of Illinois. You've already seen an article on that. It'll probably pop up in the next couple of days as well, and you'll be able to sign up directly from that email.
Todd Gleason:You can go to willag.org, willag.0rg, as the articles that are posted to Crop Central are there, and you'll be looking for the article about empowering, Illinois soybean producers. And just as a reminder, this is sponsored by the United Soybean Board along with the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Illinois Extension, Illinois State Water Survey, and the Illinois Soybean Association. I'm sure they have a way to sign up there as well, but it's probably easiest if you're listening to WILL and the closing market report to sign up at willag.org. And the first 25 that sign up will receive an honorarium of $350. Don't wait.
Todd Gleason:Do it right now. Thank you, Austin, for being with us. I appreciate it.
Austin Pearson:Thank you, sir.
Todd Gleason:That's Austin Pearson. He is a climatologist with the Midwest Regional Climate Center based on the Purdue campus in Lafayette, Indiana. Let's check-in on the global growing regions with Mike Tanure. He's the president and CEO of tStorm Weather. That's tstorm.net online.
Todd Gleason:Hello, Mike. Thanks for being with us. Let's start with soil moisture conditions across the Midwest as we move into this hot time frame. We'll discuss that in a moment. But first, how are we set up to move into it?
Mike Tannura:Well, there's a couple of different ways to look at it, but we'll start out with our proprietary data. And what we're going to talk about is the amount of US corn that was drier than normal over the last thirty days. This gives some indication of where we are today relative to other years. Our dataset goes back to 2011, so we have 15 growing seasons of data to look at on a daily basis. And if we look at where we were as of yesterday, which was day number 76 since half of the corn crop was planted, only about 10% of US corn was drier than normal over this thirty day period, And that's the lowest value going all the way back to 2011, which means it goes back even further than that.
Mike Tannura:We just don't have the exact year. But it gives you some indication that conditions right now are not dry. We have either adequate ideal or surplus soil moisture for The US corn crop. There is another way to look at it too, which might be maybe a little simpler, but not quite as scientific and doesn't quite provide the background as much. But if we look at the amount of rain that fell in the seven state Corn Belt in the month of June and then look at unofficially what's happened so far in July and kinda take it forward through next week to get an idea of how we're going to end up, it very likely is going to be the wettest June and July in The US Corn Belt since 2018.
Mike Tannura:2018 will have been a little bit wetter, but we will have been one of the wetter here on record. And actually, let me take that back, the wettest since 2016, not 2018. But it gives you some idea here that we're in a wet growing season. And, you know, typically, crops like that as long as you don't get too much.
Todd Gleason:Now tell me a bit more about that. We'll start with the heat that we're in the midst of. What does that mean for the crop, do you think, and how much heat will we really have over this set of few days?
Mike Tannura:Well, it's going to be pretty hot for the next five, six, seven days in most of the Central US, but not all of it. People to the West Of The Mississippi River are going to be pretty nice today and tomorrow with highs only in the eighties and lows in the sixties, so really no big deal there. If you're East Of The Mississippi River, that's where it's going to be hot, especially Illinois and points east through Indiana and Ohio. Highs in the nineties, lows in the mid seventies, maybe even around 80 at times. So that's pretty warm for this time of the year.
Mike Tannura:And certainly, crops don't like that. They would like to have cool weather this time of the year. So that's kind of the one piece of the story that hasn't been super ideal that it has been warm at times, but we need to keep in mind a couple of things, Todd. If you look at temperatures over the last thirty days for US corn, kind like we talked about earlier, they're not all that impressive because we've only been around one and a half degrees warmer than normal. That number was much higher several weeks ago due to a lot of heat at the June.
Mike Tannura:But heat at the June, I think we talked about it on your show, that's not really something to be super concerned about because corn is still growing, soybeans are still growing, they're not super sensitive yet, and that warm weather helps them to get going. You get heat now and that's where it's a different story. You don't really want to see that. So there certainly will be some stress from this over the next five, six, seven days. But the other things to keep in mind are, number one, it's not dry.
Mike Tannura:So that is going to be helping out with the crop when it gets affected by the heat. On top of that, there's more rain out there. We're going to see thunderstorms in all different parts of The US over the next five to seven days. That's partially a function of that heat. You put a hot atmosphere on top of a wet soil that creates an unstable air mass and then any little perturbation moving through the Central US will trigger thunderstorm clusters.
Mike Tannura:That's going to be the case in Illinois and in Indiana over the next three to four or five days. Only until a big cool frog moves through does it end. Todd, that's the other thing we need to talk about. There's an ideal setup coming up next week for cool weather. So we're going to see temperatures drop all the way into the 70s for highs with lows in the 50s, maybe even some 40s in Michigan and Wisconsin on a day or two late next week.
Mike Tannura:And that is ideal for craft development. So, you know, you put all this together. We don't have everything quite figured out yet, but if that cool pattern next week were to last, then all of a sudden, you have to really start thinking about where these yields are going.
Todd Gleason:On that note, what do you suppose the odds are that the cooler weather might last into August?
Mike Tannura:Well, it's certainly going to turn pretty cool in August, at least in the first few days of it because of that front that comes through next week. That'll start out in the northern growing areas on Tuesday, and then it'll slide through the rest of the Central US on Wednesday and Thursday. So when we talk again right now next week, it'll be a lot cooler with, again, highs in the seventies and lows mostly in the fifties. After a few days of pretty ideal temperatures, we can see that it is going to warm up, but the warm up doesn't look super strong. There's still going to be cool fronts passing to our north, and one or two of those will probably sink southward at some point in time within the first five to ten days of August.
Mike Tannura:So in the end, temperatures will probably end up being normal or maybe even a little bit cooler than normal to open up the first seven to ten days of August. So that'll be a really key thing to watch because if it were to stay cool for that period of time and then last, that's a nice recipe for corn and soybean development. And if it were to turn hot, that would be a different story. So we need to watch those temperatures pretty closely starting here next week.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thank you much, Mike. I appreciate it. Sure thing, Todd. That's Mike Tenora.
Todd Gleason:He is the CEO and president of t storm weather at tstorm.net online. You've been listening to the closing market report on this Thursday afternoon. From Illinois public media, it is public radio for the farming world. We'll record our commodity week program later today, and you'll find that up online at willag.org. Not tonight because I'll include some information from Joe Jensen that'll be recorded tomorrow afternoon, but you'll be able to hear it on our home station, the full program tomorrow during the closing market report hour at 02:00.
Todd Gleason:And then, of course, on many of these radio stations over the weekend, then it'll be up before 02:00 at willag.org. Thank you for listening to agricultural programming from Illinois Public Media. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason.