CropGPT - Sugar

The weekly report on the global Sugar market for week 18. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This episode provides a detailed assessment of global sugar production trends, market dynamics, and policy developments across major producing regions for the week ending May 4, 2025.
  • Brazil: In the Central-South region, April 2025 saw a 2.99% year-on-year increase in sugarcane crushing, totaling 16.6 million tons. However, sugar concentration declined slightly. Sugar output rose marginally to 730,850 tons, while ethanol production surged by 11.54% to 918 million liters, led by increased corn ethanol output. Domestic ethanol sales dipped, and exports fell by nearly 53%. Despite a 4.98% drop in total cane milling for the 2024/25 season, sugar production remained strong at 40.17 million metric tons, with ethanol output reaching a record 34.96 billion liters, reinforcing Brazil’s biofuel orientation.
  • India: Sugar production dropped 18% year-on-year to 25.5 million metric tons due to reduced yields in key states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka. Nonetheless, prices remained stable due to higher recovery rates and favorable monsoon forecasts. The government continues to prioritize ethanol output, diverting 3.5 million tons of cane for this purpose. Regulatory enforcement on cane payments also intensified.
  • Pakistan: Despite sufficient stock levels to cover domestic needs through November 2025, sugar prices exceeded government caps, reaching Rs. 168.8/kg. The sales tax base was revised to Rs. 126/kg. Exports from July to March brought in $407 million, reflecting the tension between domestic affordability and foreign exchange goals.
  • Thailand: Sugar production for the 2024/25 season is forecast at 10.35 million metric tons, up from the previous year. However, the Chinese ban on Thai sugar syrup imports disrupted operations at 35 specialized factories, resulting in significant financial impacts.
  • Russia & Ukraine: Russian sugar exports rose sharply in 2023–2024 but have slowed in 2025 amid ruble appreciation. Ukraine anticipates a 17% reduction in sugar beet area, constraining output and EU-bound exports due to tighter trade barriers.
  • Egypt & Nigeria: Egypt has achieved sugar self-sufficiency with production exceeding 3 million metric tons. Conversely, Nigeria continues to rely on imports, projecting an 11% increase for 2025/26 due to domestic production shortfalls.
  • Philippines: National production is expected to remain stable at 1.85 million metric tons, though concerns persist over the impact of land use changes on sugarcane cultivation.
  • Global Outlook: A projected global sugar deficit of 4.88 million metric tons for 2024/25 is contributing to upward pressure on prices. Market conditions remain fluid, shaped by regional supply adjustments, trade policies, and climate variability.

What is CropGPT - Sugar?

Sugar news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global sugar market for 05/04/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. Brazil's Central South region experienced a noticeable uptick in sugarcane crushing during the April 2025, achieving totals of 16,600,000 tons, marking a 2.99% rise from the previous year. The number of operational production units edged up from 175 to 178. Despite this, total recoverable sugars saw a decline, indicating a modest reduction in sugar concentration.

Speaker 1:

Sugar production slightly increased to 730,850 tons, while ethanol production surged by 11.54% to 918,140,000 liters, largely attributed to an uptick in corn ethanol production. Domestic ethanol sales faced a minor decrease, and exports plummeted by 52.91%. The twenty twenty four-twenty five harvest reported a 4.98% reduction in sugarcane milling compared to the year prior, yet sugar production remained strong at 40,170,000 metric tons, and ethanol production reached a record 34,960,000,000 liters, emphasizing the biofuel focus. In India, sugar production for the season fell by 18% year over year to 25,500,000 metric tons, driven by reduced yields in key states like Maharashtra and Karnataka. The government emphasized expanding ethanol production, utilizing 3,500,000 metric tons of diverted cane.

Speaker 1:

Despite the sharp decline in sugar output, domestic prices remained stable due to improved recovery rates and promising monsoon forecasts. Regulatory challenges persisted, with strict enforcement on sugarcane dues. Pakistan saw sugar prices soar above government set ceilings, reaching Rs. 168.8 per kilogram despite ample domestic stock levels. To enhance tax revenue, the government adjusted the sales tax base to Rs.

Speaker 1:

126 per kilogram. From July to March, sugar exports generated $4.00 $7,000,000 exacerbating the tension between foreign exchange earnings and domestic price management. Stock levels were sufficient to meet domestic requirements until November 2025. In Thailand, sugar production for the twenty twenty four-twenty five season was projected at 10,350,000 metric tons, marking a notable increase from the previous year. However, the sector faced obstacles due to a Chinese ban on Thai sugar syrup imports, significantly affecting 35 specialized factories and incurring substantial financial losses.

Speaker 1:

Russia witnessed a marked increase in sugar exports during 2023 or 2024, but a slowdown in 2025 due to a stronger ruble. Ukraine anticipated a 17% reduction in sugar beet cultivation area, resulting in decreased sugar production and exports, particularly to the European Union, where trade protections tightened. Egypt achieved self sufficiency with sugar production exceeding 3,000,000 metric tons. In contrast, Nigeria continued to grapple with sugar self sufficiency, projecting an 11% rise in sugar imports for twenty twenty five Takir twenty six. The Philippines expected to maintain stable sugar production at around 1,850,000 metric tons for twenty twenty five Takir twenty six, although concerns over land use changes impacting cane cultivation loomed.

Speaker 1:

Globally, sugar production for twenty twenty four Tatra twenty five faced a deficit of 4,880,000 metric tons, exerting upward pressure on market prices. Trade dynamics remained in flux, with major production countries and regions adapting to variable market demands and shifting climatic conditions. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the sugar market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.